The war in the Ukraine has now entered year three, after initial predictions in February 2022 that it would last two weeks. As a general rule of thumb, the war has caused more anxiety over ag trade than actual disruptions.   A good proxy for looking at what has happened is the trade in sunflower seed and oil, as the region is a major supplier. As WPI’s Black Sea Analysis this week noted, exports from Russia and the Ukraine remain strong. Further, as Gary Blumenthal wrote about the grain stocks and planting intentions reports, sunflower stocks were up and planting intentions are down dramatically.  

Sunflower acres in North Dakota are down to the third lowest since records began in 1974. For the remaining produc...