World Perspectives

Tale of the Tail; USMCA Strategy; Up in Smoke; Delhi Dirt

Tale of Trade Restrictions’ Tail China came into the U.S. market today for soybeans, but American farmers now realize they need to diversify their markets. Perhaps they’ve learned something from past trade wars. Consider the following: Soviet Grain Embargo 1) Before the Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan in 1979 and incurred a grain export embargo by the U.S., it was approved to import 25 MMT of American wheat and corn or 10 percent of U.S. annual production. 2) Counterintuitively, the price of wheat rose from $4.39/bushel in January 1980 when the embargo was imposed to $5.00/bushel a year later when it was removed. 3) U.S wheat exports totaled 37 MMT before the embargo, hit 41 MMT during its imposition and then rose to 48 MM...

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Market Commentary: Geopolitics Skews the Week

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Summary of Futures

Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.3025/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close.  Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.2975/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close.  Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $11.1525/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close.  Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $303.6/short ton, up $0.4...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Geopolitics Skews the Week

It was another day of big volume in the soy complex. While soybeans closed higher for a fourth session, corn and wheat failed to follow, or perhaps their drag pulled soybeans back to fundamental reality. There are still no new export sales.  The Chinese are smart, and if they intend to buy...

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Biofuels Policy: 45Z and E15

The Office of Management and Budget (OMB) has signed off on a rule for the 45Z tax credit. The credit was created by the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 during the Biden Administration for the production and sale of low-emission transportation fuels. It was updated and extended as part of the r...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Summary of Futures

Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.3025/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close.  Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.2975/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close.  Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $11.1525/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close.  Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $303.6/short ton, up $0.4...

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Volatility and Opportunity Abound in Soy Pricing

Soybean futures and the broader soy complex saw heightened volatility this week on a combination of domestic and international demand drivers. Following these moves, it is relevant to examine what seasonal pricing patterns suggest for the futures market, as well as what the implications are for...

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From WPI Consulting

Forecasting developments in production agriculture

On behalf of a private U.S. agricultural technology provider, WPI’s team generated an econometric model to forecast the movement of concentrated corn production north and west from the traditional U.S. Corn Belt. WPI’s model has subsequently provided quantitative support to a multi-million-dollar investment into short-season corn variety development. WPI’s methodology included a series of interviews with regional grain elevators and seed consultants. Emphasizing outreach and communication with stakeholders who possess intimate sectoral knowledge – on-the-ground insights – is a regular component of WPI’s methodologies, made possible by WPI’s ever-growing network of industry contacts.

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