Key Takeaways: 

The agricultural trade surplus has become a sizable deficit: the balance swung from a $40.1 billion surplus in 2011 to a $40.7 billion deficit in 2025. Imports kept growing while exports lost momentum: between 2020 and 2025, agricultural imports increased 45 percent, compared with 14.5 percent for exports. Selling more does not always mean earning more: a strong dollar and intense competition constrain bulk export earnings, while falling commodity prices can offset larger shipments.

The Details: A character in Hemingway’s The Sun Also Rises asked a friend, “How did you go bankrupt?” His answer has proved useful in all manner of contexts - financial, political, and personal. “Two ways, gradually...