World Perspectives
feed-grains soy-oilseeds

Updated: The Historic Context for January WASDE Yield Surprises

Errata: The original version of this article incorrectly state the January 2018 soybean yield estimate at 50.6 BPA, instead of the true February (which made up for the delayed January report) estimate of 51.6 BPA. All statistics related to this yield estimate and charts/tables have been corrected below. USDA surprised the commodity markets on Friday with bullish adjustments to the U.S. corn and soybean balance sheets, particularly the unexpected reductions in yields for both commodities. The surprise created by the latest balance sheet makes it worthwhile to evaluate the USDA’s adjusted estimates relative to historical patterns. For this analysis, WPI uses the USDA’s yield, harvested acreage, and production forecasts as published in th...

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feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: CBOT Ends Lower as Slow Export News Overrides Black Sea Tensions

The CBOT was mostly lower at mid-week with the threat of Russian attacks on Ukrainian vessels and ag infrastructure taking a backseat to the lack of export news, particularly from China. Corn, wheat, and soybeans all settled in the red for the day with soybeans leading the downside move on anot...

Waste Energy; Selective Protectionism

Waste Energy The cudgel held over agriculture-based feedstocks has typically been indirect land use. The U.S. biofuel industry is currently battling with California regulators over its calculation. Works in Progress editor Samuel Hughes identifies land use restrictions as newly common across al...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Summary of Futures

Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.435/bushel, down $0.065 from yesterday's close.  Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.3825/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close.  Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.1575/bushel, down $0.09 from yesterday's close.  Jan 26 Soymeal closed at $311.3/short ton, down $0...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: CBOT Ends Lower as Slow Export News Overrides Black Sea Tensions

The CBOT was mostly lower at mid-week with the threat of Russian attacks on Ukrainian vessels and ag infrastructure taking a backseat to the lack of export news, particularly from China. Corn, wheat, and soybeans all settled in the red for the day with soybeans leading the downside move on anot...

Waste Energy; Selective Protectionism

Waste Energy The cudgel held over agriculture-based feedstocks has typically been indirect land use. The U.S. biofuel industry is currently battling with California regulators over its calculation. Works in Progress editor Samuel Hughes identifies land use restrictions as newly common across al...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Summary of Futures

Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.435/bushel, down $0.065 from yesterday's close.  Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.3825/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close.  Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.1575/bushel, down $0.09 from yesterday's close.  Jan 26 Soymeal closed at $311.3/short ton, down $0...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

CFTC COT Report Analysis

The following tables/charts reflect the CFTC's latest data release, which covers traders' positions through 21 October. The data are, obviously, delayed due to the 40-day 2025 U.S. government shutdown. While the positions below likely have little influence on today's markets or fund positioning...

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From WPI Consulting

Forecasting developments in production agriculture

On behalf of a private U.S. agricultural technology provider, WPI’s team generated an econometric model to forecast the movement of concentrated corn production north and west from the traditional U.S. Corn Belt. WPI’s model has subsequently provided quantitative support to a multi-million-dollar investment into short-season corn variety development. WPI’s methodology included a series of interviews with regional grain elevators and seed consultants. Emphasizing outreach and communication with stakeholders who possess intimate sectoral knowledge – on-the-ground insights – is a regular component of WPI’s methodologies, made possible by WPI’s ever-growing network of industry contacts.

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