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Updated: The Historic Context for January WASDE Yield Surprises

Errata: The original version of this article incorrectly state the January 2018 soybean yield estimate at 50.6 BPA, instead of the true February (which made up for the delayed January report) estimate of 51.6 BPA. All statistics related to this yield estimate and charts/tables have been corrected below. USDA surprised the commodity markets on Friday with bullish adjustments to the U.S. corn and soybean balance sheets, particularly the unexpected reductions in yields for both commodities. The surprise created by the latest balance sheet makes it worthwhile to evaluate the USDA’s adjusted estimates relative to historical patterns. For this analysis, WPI uses the USDA’s yield, harvested acreage, and production forecasts as published in th...

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WASDE Soybeans - Mar 2026

USDA’s outlook for 2025/26 U.S. soybeans had increased imports and crush, but ending stocks remained unchanged from last month.  The average annual soybean price is projected unchanged at $10.20 per bushel. The soybean meal price is increased by $5 per short ton to $300. The soybean...

feed-grains

WASDE Corn - Mar 2026

USDA’s outlook for 2025/26 U.S. corn outlook is unchanged from last month. Global corn ending stocks increased by 3.8 million metric tons to 292.8 million. The season-average corn price received by U.S. producers is unchanged at $4.10 per bushel...

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WASDE Wheat - Mar 2026

USDA’s outlook for 2025/26 U.S. wheat supply and use categories are unchanged from last month. Global supplies increased modestly by 0.2 million tons to 1,101.8 million and global ending stocks remain at a 5-year high. The result is that the average U.S. farm price is adjusted up modestly...

soy-oilseeds

WASDE Soybeans - Mar 2026

USDA’s outlook for 2025/26 U.S. soybeans had increased imports and crush, but ending stocks remained unchanged from last month.  The average annual soybean price is projected unchanged at $10.20 per bushel. The soybean meal price is increased by $5 per short ton to $300. The soybean...

feed-grains

WASDE Corn - Mar 2026

USDA’s outlook for 2025/26 U.S. corn outlook is unchanged from last month. Global corn ending stocks increased by 3.8 million metric tons to 292.8 million. The season-average corn price received by U.S. producers is unchanged at $4.10 per bushel...

wheat

WASDE Wheat - Mar 2026

USDA’s outlook for 2025/26 U.S. wheat supply and use categories are unchanged from last month. Global supplies increased modestly by 0.2 million tons to 1,101.8 million and global ending stocks remain at a 5-year high. The result is that the average U.S. farm price is adjusted up modestly...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Easing But Not Ending Novelty and Risk

There were more modest volumes trading in today’s session, perhaps reflecting growing resilience and circumspection about geopolitical uncertainties. The trade has had an ample opportunity to react to the modest changes in USDA’s March WASDE report, and there is still plenty of expe...

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From WPI Consulting

Accountability and a comprehensive approach to export programming

WPI’s team helped construct a strategic approach to develop, implement, and track promotional activities in 8 key regions across the globe for an agricultural export association. With continued progress measurement and strategic advisory services from WPI, the association has seen its ROI from investments in promotional programming increase by 44 percent over the past 5 years. Not only does this type of holistic approach to organizational strategy provide measurable results to track and analyze, it fosters top-down and bottom-up organizational accountability.

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