Key Takeaways:

Milk alone has not covered the full economic cost in any year since 2021: milk revenue fell short by $4.50, $2.15, $6.50, $1.27 and $2.34 per hundredweight in 2021 through 2025. Calf and cattle prices decided whether dairies cleared cost: cattle and other income lifted total revenue above full cost by 1 cent in 2022, $1.29 in 2024 and 63 cents in 2025, while 2021 and 2023 still fell short by $2.89 and $4.23. Federal orders still matter, but they do not reach that support: the 2025 make-allowance update alone took roughly 85 to 92 cents off class prices, yet nothing in the order system touches cattle markets. The calf boom is now straining the herd: breeding for beef has pushed dairy replacement supplies to their lowest level...