Many different opinions and ideas were expressed at a wheat conference this week, which generated a number of thoughts and observations.

The hard red winter wheat crop is big and likely becoming larger. This is old news, but such a size is having some interesting impacts:

Interior basis has collapsed to record-low levels. Cash wheat prices to the farmers are generally $3.60-3.75/ bushel. The saving grace is that yields are huge. This crop was on the verge of extinction in early April. It hadn’t rained in 2016, and large areas suffered at least two different frost/freeze events. Rains and cool weather arrived in early to mid-April. Weather turned perfect for the reproductive stage of this crop, and even veteran crop watchers have be...