The USDA’s annual Agricultural Outlook Forum (AOF) featured the agency’s first look at the 2026/27 balance sheet for the major U.S. crops and livestock products. For corn, wheat, and soybeans, this year’s numbers were in line with expectations and did not spark much reaction from the futures market. That is not to say, however, that the agency’s first thoughts do not reveal some interesting insights. Here, WPI breaks down the USDA’s latest forecasts and offers our updated balance sheet forecasts alongside the agency’s. Briefly, our models agree with USDA’s in terms of the broad direction for corn and soybean balance sheet trends, but ours show larger changes in the same direction. For wheat, W...
What You Need to Know Today: Agricultural commodities were mostly lower on the day, with red-hot soyoil a notable exception. Export sales were a bit underwhelming, particularly for corn with export sales down 52 percent week-over-week. The weakness in ag markets tracked crude oil weakness wit...
With the war in Iran affecting fuel and fertilizer prices, higher tariffs, weak commodity prices, ag labor constraints, and other factors, farm bankruptcies are now at a 6-year high, a signal of growing stress. During the month of April, 62 Chapter 12 bankruptcies were filed, which is a 1...
Food Inflation The Open Markets Institute, which is notably funded by several “anonymous” donors and liberal foundations, obtained a guest editorial in the New York Times in which they blame agribusiness concentration for higher grocery prices. This is their schtick and it is politi...
From WPI Consulting
Forecasting developments in production agriculture
On behalf of a private U.S. agricultural technology provider, WPI’s team generated an econometric model to forecast the movement of concentrated corn production north and west from the traditional U.S. Corn Belt. WPI’s model has subsequently provided quantitative support to a multi-million-dollar investment into short-season corn variety development. WPI’s methodology included a series of interviews with regional grain elevators and seed consultants. Emphasizing outreach and communication with stakeholders who possess intimate sectoral knowledge – on-the-ground insights – is a regular component of WPI’s methodologies, made possible by WPI’s ever-growing network of industry contacts.