Grain market chatter has tended toward things like the big U.S. crops, prospects for large South American crops, tightening world wheat and corn stocks but burdensome soybean stocks, trade disputes and a number of other topics that have had their moment of attention. The EU is seldom mentioned in any discussion of world grain markets other than as a traditional wheat export competitor. Things are quite different this year, although the market has taken little notice. Overlooked is how tight the EU’s grain stocks situation is becoming. Last summer saw the worst drought over the northern half of Europe in a great many years, and EU crop production took a serious hit as a result.

Based on USDA’s estimates, the EU will end 2018/1...