Trade War Calculations The market remains uncertain about the potential outcome from this coming weekend’s meeting between the leaders of China and the U.S. because it is a calculation of the political and economic tipping point. Note the following:

Neither side wants a long-term economic decoupling. Trump must appear to have accomplished something; Xi cannot concede to a “contain” China prescription. China is making offers to improve its trading practices, but none address the critical problem of the government’s deepening involvement in the economy. Beijing made unfulfilled promises to former U.S. Presidents Bill Clinton and George W. Bush. Trump does not need an agreement this weekend, but he must have one...