The markets are nervous over potential impacts from geopolitics, especially the potential actions by Russia in Ukraine. The past is not necessarily prologue but there was little discernable impact when Russia annexed Crimea in late winter of 2014. Wheat production and exports continued to expand in both countries. Ending stocks grew slightly in both Russia and Ukraine, but not in a manner disproportionate to the increase in production and exports. Ideally, if Russia were to take adverse action, sanctions would form some punitive damage on her grain exports. However, most wheat importing countries do not take moral stands against their own economic interests and refuse to buy cheaper food. Russia will most likely price wheat at whatever dis...

TAGS – Wheat, Black Sea