We’ve been updating our ideas on U.S. wheat production over each of the past few months, and the primary reason for doing this so early in the season is that a severe drought has encased the southern Plains since early last fall. It has not abated and instead worsened. Despite the obvious results of this, market analysts have continued to forecast average or, in some cases, above-average hard red winter wheat yields. 37 percent of the total U.S. winter wheat crop was rated poor to very poor as of last Monday’s report, and 50 percent of the Kansas crop is rated poor to very poor. This week’s Kansas crop tour released a production estimate of 243 million bushels for the state, down from 334 million bushels in 2017, but not...
What You Need to Know Today: U.S. and Chinese officials are expected to discuss agriculture and non-tariff trade barriers ahead of Chinese President Xi Jinping’s visit to Washington later this month, potentially opening the door to additional U.S. agricultural purchases or improved marke...
The U.S. will observe Labor Day on Monday, 7 September. U.S. markets and the WPI office will be closed that day. The next edition of Ag Perspectives will be published Tuesday, 8 September...
Key Takeaways: Drought and changes to the multi-year trend in cow slaughter and retention have the potential to dramatically alter beef trim supplies and pricing, and WPI specifically models three different drought scenarios for fall 2026. Based on our models, WPI expects 90 percent lean...
From WPI Consulting
Forecasting developments in production agriculture
On behalf of a private U.S. agricultural technology provider, WPI’s team generated an econometric model to forecast the movement of concentrated corn production north and west from the traditional U.S. Corn Belt. WPI’s model has subsequently provided quantitative support to a multi-million-dollar investment into short-season corn variety development. WPI’s methodology included a series of interviews with regional grain elevators and seed consultants. Emphasizing outreach and communication with stakeholders who possess intimate sectoral knowledge – on-the-ground insights – is a regular component of WPI’s methodologies, made possible by WPI’s ever-growing network of industry contacts.