World Perspectives
soy-oilseeds

U.S. Soybean Crush Margin Outlook

The three legs of the U.S. soybean crush have each seen interesting and divergent dynamics over the past month that have influenced the crush margin outlook. Notably, soymeal prices have slumped $30/MT lower since early October and are hovering near contract lows just below the $300 mark. Conversely, after a volatile month, soyoil futures have rallied sharply and are trading, as of this writing, at a new three month high. Soybeans have been caught somewhere in the middle with an overall weaker tone seeing some reversal trade develop this week. The strength in soyoil and weaker soybean values have caused the CBOT board crush margins (that is, the margin implied by the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures contracts for corresponding months) t...

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Food Fight Ahead; UPF Boogeyman

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From WPI Consulting

Forecasting developments in production agriculture

On behalf of a private U.S. agricultural technology provider, WPI’s team generated an econometric model to forecast the movement of concentrated corn production north and west from the traditional U.S. Corn Belt. WPI’s model has subsequently provided quantitative support to a multi-million-dollar investment into short-season corn variety development. WPI’s methodology included a series of interviews with regional grain elevators and seed consultants. Emphasizing outreach and communication with stakeholders who possess intimate sectoral knowledge – on-the-ground insights – is a regular component of WPI’s methodologies, made possible by WPI’s ever-growing network of industry contacts.

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