World Perspectives
feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

USDA’s Production Estimates: How Low Can They Go?

USDA will release its August production estimate and supply/demand (WASDE) numbers this Friday, 10 August. This might be one of the most important production estimates the market has seen for a lot of reasons, including:

The U.S. drought has been severe and has lasted much longer than the 1988 drought it is often compared to. Corn and soybean crops were generally planted two to three weeks earlier than normal. The drought has pushed maturity, so Friday's yield estimates should be easier to determine than they would be in a more normal crop year. The corn yield estimate will be based on actual farmer surveys, objective test plots, etc. Previous yield estimates have been based on collective opinions of crop conditions, not actual obse...

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Who is Paying for U.S. Tariffs?

Over the course of 2025, the average tariff rate on U.S. imports increased from 2.6 percent at the beginning of the year to 13 percent by year-end. It then spiked in April and May, when tariffs on Chinese goods were raised by 125 percentage points, before being reversed by 115 percentage points...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

WPI Spring Acreage Outlook

Heading into the USDA’s annual Ag Outlook Forum (AOF) next week, there is heightened speculation and anticipation about what the 2026/27 crop outlook will be. WPI updated our acreage forecasting models to help clients know what to expect—most likely—from the upcoming AOF forec...

Transportation and Export Report - 13 February 2026

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Who is Paying for U.S. Tariffs?

Over the course of 2025, the average tariff rate on U.S. imports increased from 2.6 percent at the beginning of the year to 13 percent by year-end. It then spiked in April and May, when tariffs on Chinese goods were raised by 125 percentage points, before being reversed by 115 percentage points...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

WPI Spring Acreage Outlook

Heading into the USDA’s annual Ag Outlook Forum (AOF) next week, there is heightened speculation and anticipation about what the 2026/27 crop outlook will be. WPI updated our acreage forecasting models to help clients know what to expect—most likely—from the upcoming AOF forec...

Transportation and Export Report - 13 February 2026

U.S. grain transportation markets are slowly recovering from the shocks of bitter cold weather and low water levels on the Mississippi River System and from the surge in export demand. The latter is also causing strong rallies in ocean freight markets, particularly in the Atlantic basin. With g...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: China Headlines and Technical Buying Lift CBOT

Key Market Developments Markets head into Friday’s CPI report expecting a 0.3 percent month-over-month increase in both headline and core inflation, keeping year-over-year readings near +2.5 percent. That matters — but perhaps not as much as it would have a few weeks ago. This week&...

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From WPI Consulting

Communicating importance of value-added products

Facing increasing pressure to quantify the value of export promotion efforts to investors, a U.S. industry organization retained WPI to develop a quantitative model that better communicated the importance of exports. The resulting model concluded that value-added meat exports contributed $0.45 cents per bushel to the price of corn, increasing support for that sector’s financial support of WPI’s client. In addition to serving the red meat industry with this type of analysis, WPI has generated similar deliverables for the U.S. soybean and poultry/egg industries.

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