Commodity markets were mixed today, while Wall Street traded higher after President Trump said the Iranians still want to negotiate after he closed the Strait of Hormuz. The result is baffling to some, but the market reflects investor expectations about future corporate earnings and growth rather than immediate conditions. Higher oil prices boost inflation and thus stall interest rate cuts, slowing the economy, but corporate earnings are still growing, bond yields have improved, and broad measurements of growth remain intact. Geopolitical events are unsettling but have historically imposed a limited long-term impact. That is not to say they are without consequences. Oil The petroleum market may incur the largest impacts from the war...
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What You Need to Know Today: Agricultural commodities were mostly lower on the day, with red-hot soyoil a notable exception. Export sales were a bit underwhelming, particularly for corn with export sales down 52 percent week-over-week. The weakness in ag markets tracked crude oil weakness wit...
With the war in Iran affecting fuel and fertilizer prices, higher tariffs, weak commodity prices, ag labor constraints, and other factors, farm bankruptcies are now at a 6-year high, a signal of growing stress. During the month of April, 62 Chapter 12 bankruptcies were filed, which is a 1...
Food Inflation The Open Markets Institute, which is notably funded by several “anonymous” donors and liberal foundations, obtained a guest editorial in the New York Times in which they blame agribusiness concentration for higher grocery prices. This is their schtick and it is politi...