La Niña events are not infrequent and should provide some level of predictability. However, there is wide variability in each event, seed genetics consistently improve and so does crop forecasting capability. In the past three La Niña years between USDA’s December WASDE forecast for South American corn production and its June WASDE estimate, it has lowered its estimate for Argentine corn production two times and raised it once. Over that same period, USDA has also lowered its estimate for Brazilian corn production twice and raised it once, but not in the same years as the corresponding changes in Argentine production. In the 2015/16 La Niña, it lowered Brazilian production but raised Argentine output. In the 2011...
What You Need to Know Today: Markets got a surprise with a corn yield of 181.2 bushels/acre in the October WASDE, above the average estimate of 177.6 bushels/acre and up from USDA’s September estimate of 178.5 bushels/acre. Although stronger demand is expected to absorb some of the addit...
The USDA has lowered its 2026 red meat production forecasts slightly while forecasting a slight increase in broiler production. Beef is now projected at 24.802 billion pounds, 75 million pounds less than in September. Cow slaughter is expected to be up; however, this will be offset by lower ste...
From WPI Consulting
Forecasting developments in production agriculture
On behalf of a private U.S. agricultural technology provider, WPI’s team generated an econometric model to forecast the movement of concentrated corn production north and west from the traditional U.S. Corn Belt. WPI’s model has subsequently provided quantitative support to a multi-million-dollar investment into short-season corn variety development. WPI’s methodology included a series of interviews with regional grain elevators and seed consultants. Emphasizing outreach and communication with stakeholders who possess intimate sectoral knowledge – on-the-ground insights – is a regular component of WPI’s methodologies, made possible by WPI’s ever-growing network of industry contacts.