World Perspectives
wheat

Wheat Over-Supported

Analysts see a 20 percent (-4 MMT) downgrade in Australia’s wheat production possibly in this week’s WASDE report, and rising expectations that Russia’s production may be off a bit. Wheat prices have been firming on the board as a result. Still, global stocks are large. The stocks to use ratio is a standard metric for considering the value of wheat and while they correlate, they are not perfect.  There tends to be an over-reaction in price or tail effect when stocks look to be tighter, as in 2007 and 2012 (see graph below). If the same over-reaction were to occur when stocks are larger than deemed necessary, the current price would be lower than it is currently. However, there is always a stronger reaction to fear of...

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feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Summary of Futures

Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.34/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close.  Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.3225/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close.  Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $10.945/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close.  Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $308.7/short ton, up $2.2 from...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Grains Consolidate while Soymeal Runs Higher and Cattle Firm

The lingering effects of trade agreements and now-confirmed export rumors were the primary drivers of the CBOT’s action on Wednesday. Tuesday’s rumors of China buying some U.S. soybeans ahead of the trade talks with the U.S. on Thursday were confirmed by Reuters and Bloomberg. The m...

FOB Prices and Freight Rates App (Updated 29 October)

WPI Grain Prices and Freight Rate App Note: you can also visit the app directly by clicking here. Supplemental Information The section below offers a concise view of the options available in the current version of the WPI FOB Price and Freight Rate app, along with a short “How To”...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Summary of Futures

Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.34/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close.  Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.3225/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close.  Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $10.945/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close.  Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $308.7/short ton, up $2.2 from...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Grains Consolidate while Soymeal Runs Higher and Cattle Firm

The lingering effects of trade agreements and now-confirmed export rumors were the primary drivers of the CBOT’s action on Wednesday. Tuesday’s rumors of China buying some U.S. soybeans ahead of the trade talks with the U.S. on Thursday were confirmed by Reuters and Bloomberg. The m...

FOB Prices and Freight Rates App (Updated 29 October)

WPI Grain Prices and Freight Rate App Note: you can also visit the app directly by clicking here. Supplemental Information The section below offers a concise view of the options available in the current version of the WPI FOB Price and Freight Rate app, along with a short “How To”...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grains Market: 20–24 October 2025 The Russian grains market remained relatively stable with divergent regional trends. European Russia exhibited bearish sentiment due to exportable surplus, while Asian Russia showed signs of price recovery, though uncertainty persists. The bearish...

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From WPI Consulting

Forecasting developments in production agriculture

On behalf of a private U.S. agricultural technology provider, WPI’s team generated an econometric model to forecast the movement of concentrated corn production north and west from the traditional U.S. Corn Belt. WPI’s model has subsequently provided quantitative support to a multi-million-dollar investment into short-season corn variety development. WPI’s methodology included a series of interviews with regional grain elevators and seed consultants. Emphasizing outreach and communication with stakeholders who possess intimate sectoral knowledge – on-the-ground insights – is a regular component of WPI’s methodologies, made possible by WPI’s ever-growing network of industry contacts.

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