World Perspectives
wheat

Wheat Over-Supported

Analysts see a 20 percent (-4 MMT) downgrade in Australia’s wheat production possibly in this week’s WASDE report, and rising expectations that Russia’s production may be off a bit. Wheat prices have been firming on the board as a result. Still, global stocks are large. The stocks to use ratio is a standard metric for considering the value of wheat and while they correlate, they are not perfect.  There tends to be an over-reaction in price or tail effect when stocks look to be tighter, as in 2007 and 2012 (see graph below). If the same over-reaction were to occur when stocks are larger than deemed necessary, the current price would be lower than it is currently. However, there is always a stronger reaction to fear of...

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feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Summary of Futures

Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.1975/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close.  Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.2025/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close.  Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.3125/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close.  Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $289/short ton, up $3.4 f...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis

Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Pakistan flooding reportedly damaged as much as 30 percent of wheat stocks in some areas, especially eastern Punjab. Local wheat prices are said to be up by 40 percent with further increases expected. Trade reports say that due to...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Summary of Futures

Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2175/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close.  Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.2375/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close.  Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.3375/bushel, up $0.0675 from yesterday's close.  Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $285.6/short ton, up $1.6 fr...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Summary of Futures

Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.1975/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close.  Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.2025/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close.  Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.3125/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close.  Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $289/short ton, up $3.4 f...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis

Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Pakistan flooding reportedly damaged as much as 30 percent of wheat stocks in some areas, especially eastern Punjab. Local wheat prices are said to be up by 40 percent with further increases expected. Trade reports say that due to...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Summary of Futures

Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2175/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close.  Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.2375/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close.  Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.3375/bushel, up $0.0675 from yesterday's close.  Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $285.6/short ton, up $1.6 fr...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Technical Momentum Shifts at Odds with Fundamentals

The CBOT was mostly higher to start the week with technical factors driving short covering and some cautious fresh long buying. There wasn’t much from a fundamental standpoint to drive the move, but the technical picture is firming for most commodities. Corn saw substantial follow-through...

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From WPI Consulting

Communicating importance of value-added products

Facing increasing pressure to quantify the value of export promotion efforts to investors, a U.S. industry organization retained WPI to develop a quantitative model that better communicated the importance of exports. The resulting model concluded that value-added meat exports contributed $0.45 cents per bushel to the price of corn, increasing support for that sector’s financial support of WPI’s client. In addition to serving the red meat industry with this type of analysis, WPI has generated similar deliverables for the U.S. soybean and poultry/egg industries.

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