Global wheat ending stocks have been persistently falling now for five years. Ordinarily, price and carryover supplies move inversely but the price of wheat has been dropping for four straight years along with the availability of wheat. 

The same is true more recently. Forecasts in recent weeks for wheat production in the Black Sea region and in the EU have been dropping. It has been too wet in the west and too dry in the east. Yet the trend in the price of wheat is to the downside. 

This parallel change in supply and price creates the potential for a volatile reaction in the future. ...