USDA surprised the markets last Friday by raising its corn and soybean yield estimates significantly from the June report. While increases weren’t unexpected, it was their sheer magnitude that caused the very bearish market reaction. Some analysts also thought USDA would use a more cautious approach in the August estimates. The two charts below show the corn and soybean yield estimates versus 2017.

The yield changes from last year for some of these states is amazing. For example, South Dakota’s corn and soybean yields are expected to be up 25 bushels/acre and 6 bushels/acre, respectively, compared with last year. While the state did have some drought issues in 2017, much of its northern half has also had some problems this ye...