World Perspectives

Will California’s Gasoline Motor Ban Eliminate One Third of National Gas and Ethanol Demand?

Last week, the California Air Resources Board (CARB) finalized a rule that will outlaw the sale of gas-fueled cars by 2035. The plan is phased in requiring the auto fleet to be no more than 65 percent gasoline powered cars by 2026 and no more than 32 percent by 2030 before the 2035 ban. This plan, when and if fully implemented, would have an enormous impact on ethanol demand. Under the federal Clean Air Act (CAA), this has the ultimate potential to spread among states and reduce up to 44.545 billion gallons of motor gasoline demand, or more than 32 percent of the total national gasoline use, and impact about 37 percent of all new automobile and light truck sales. Assuming this lost motor gasoline was all to be blended at E10, the impact on...

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Livestock Roundup: North American Beef and Pork Forecast

The U.S. beef cow herd stabilized somewhat in 2024. The average culling rate was 10.5 percent, but with a beef cow herd of 28 million, the cull rate would have to be around 9 percent – or less – and heifer retention must increase in order to enter into an expansion phase.  ...

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Oilseed Highlights: Markets Turn Lower on Growing Supply Expectations

The Market  Soybean futures have mostly traded sideways over the past two weeks with trade policy uncertainty, favorable weather for the U.S. and South America, and as-expected export volumes minimizing the need for a major move. Soyoil has pulled back sharply amid weakness in crude oil an...

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Market Commentary: Funds Remain Bearish Ag Space Despite U.S.-China Trade Talks

The CBOT turned higher overnight after late Tuesday announcement of a China/U.S. meeting in Switzerland to discuss tariffs and reduce trade tensions. The first step in what is likely to be a prolonged process was welcomed by the industry as it at least shows a willingness from both parties to t...

livestock

Livestock Roundup: North American Beef and Pork Forecast

The U.S. beef cow herd stabilized somewhat in 2024. The average culling rate was 10.5 percent, but with a beef cow herd of 28 million, the cull rate would have to be around 9 percent – or less – and heifer retention must increase in order to enter into an expansion phase.  ...

soy-oilseeds

Oilseed Highlights: Markets Turn Lower on Growing Supply Expectations

The Market  Soybean futures have mostly traded sideways over the past two weeks with trade policy uncertainty, favorable weather for the U.S. and South America, and as-expected export volumes minimizing the need for a major move. Soyoil has pulled back sharply amid weakness in crude oil an...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Funds Remain Bearish Ag Space Despite U.S.-China Trade Talks

The CBOT turned higher overnight after late Tuesday announcement of a China/U.S. meeting in Switzerland to discuss tariffs and reduce trade tensions. The first step in what is likely to be a prolonged process was welcomed by the industry as it at least shows a willingness from both parties to t...

It’s Complicated

This is a list of vignettes about the most consequential politician of our times. Donald Trump is not complicated if one just reads the rants of his opponents, of which there is a lengthy list. But as the journalist Matthew Continetti says, “Trump criticism is an oversaturated market.&rdq...

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From WPI Consulting

Forecasting developments in production agriculture

On behalf of a private U.S. agricultural technology provider, WPI’s team generated an econometric model to forecast the movement of concentrated corn production north and west from the traditional U.S. Corn Belt. WPI’s model has subsequently provided quantitative support to a multi-million-dollar investment into short-season corn variety development. WPI’s methodology included a series of interviews with regional grain elevators and seed consultants. Emphasizing outreach and communication with stakeholders who possess intimate sectoral knowledge – on-the-ground insights – is a regular component of WPI’s methodologies, made possible by WPI’s ever-growing network of industry contacts.

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