World Perspectives
feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Worsening Food Prices

Key agricultural commodity prices have risen sharply over the past two years, some reaching their highest level in a decade (see graph below). Now the UN says that climate change could cause production to fall 30 percent at the same time food demand is forecast to rise by 50 percent. The caution with this prognostication is that it was made by two of the worst professions at forecasting: economists and meteorologists! Nonetheless, any price increases will be further compounded by the policy decisions that are being made.  Restrictions on inputs such as land, fertilizer, water, and biotechnology. Disincentives for fossil energy development. Initiatives such as local/food sovereignty. Prohibiting products from certain geographies (...

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feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Unmoved and Uncertain

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From WPI Consulting

Forecasting developments in production agriculture

On behalf of a private U.S. agricultural technology provider, WPI’s team generated an econometric model to forecast the movement of concentrated corn production north and west from the traditional U.S. Corn Belt. WPI’s model has subsequently provided quantitative support to a multi-million-dollar investment into short-season corn variety development. WPI’s methodology included a series of interviews with regional grain elevators and seed consultants. Emphasizing outreach and communication with stakeholders who possess intimate sectoral knowledge – on-the-ground insights – is a regular component of WPI’s methodologies, made possible by WPI’s ever-growing network of industry contacts.

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