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Renationalization; Biofuel; Small and Unsafe

The pushback from EU member states to the detailed meddling by Brussels into everyday European life has its politicians scrambling to give capitals more au...

The April WASDE

USDA's April estimates of ending 2014/15 stocks, both for the U.S. and the world, probably command the greatest interest for grain traders and analysts.Eac...

Cases of Avian Influenza Discovered in Minnesota and Canada

All of the cases have been detected in the past month with five of those found since last week. The Minnesota farms are in a flyway for migratory birds, pu...

Oilseed Highlights

Thailand's energy minister announced today that the government plans to change the current biodiesel blending requirement on 15 April  in an effort to...

Purity; Rapprochement; Spades

Few consumers are aware that organic food in the U.S. is made with synthetics and chemicals as that industry does not support labeling. However,  the...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

 Argentine soybean quality is a concern this season as the first deliveries to the ports showed protein below 32.5 percent. This is a potentially seri...

Market Commentary

Amid the swinging U.S. dollar and crude oil, grain and soy prices were a sea of calm. Once again, prices traded a bit higher overnight, although it was not...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

The volume of Ukraine's rapeseed oil and meal exports has notably changed for the months July 2014-February 2015 against the same period a year ago as have...

Market Commentary

It is a story that has repeated with some frequency recently. Overnight trading in grains and the soy complex produces a price rally, but the rally effort...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Oilseed Highlights

In an effort to offset a huge decline in soymeal exports, India may be rebating a larger percent of the FOB export value to exporters. India Increases Soym...

The April WASDE and Beyond

The main question regarding U.S. corn and soybeans for the balance of the 2014/15 crop year is whether demand will be enough to achieve the levels foreseen...

Ag Review: Screwy Currencies

Currency Valuation and Trade The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and the strong U.S. dollar weigh on commodity trading decisions. The TPP and a Pr...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

Syria and Italy are reportedly discussing a trade involving 100,000 MT of Syrian durum wheat for 100,000 MT of soft milling wheat. This type of countertrad...

Math; Prejudice; Pivot

According to some analysts, the logical "pivot to Asia" made by the Obama administration is in trouble without the TPP. Math and Trade U.S. Representative...

More on WOTUS Rule

While the U.S. EPA and Army Corps of Engineers claim that jurisdictional water bodies are easily defined, a number of issues remain.Yesterday we wrote abou...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

U.S. Hard Red Winter Wheat Crop Shrinking

Two elements of our 20 March analysis of the 2015 U.S. wheat outlook, which pegged hard red winter wheat production at 810 million bushels and total wheat...

Burning Witches; No Chinese Surprise

The Agricultural Market Information Service (AMIS), set up as political cover for political leaders who failed to take notice of an impending food price sp...

WOTUS Rule to Go to OMB

As proposed, the "Water of the United States" (WOTUS) rule would dramatically expand the amount of wet areas that would become federally controlled. Given...

China In-Country Analysis

Several factors are putting upward pressure on China's average pork prices. President Xi's decree that party officials implement an eight-point guide for o...

Market Commentary

It was another day that found it tough to explain why we had the major shifts in nearly every market. After opening slightly higher following the long East...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

The Russian government is considering a possible extension of the wheat export tax beyond 30 June. If the tax is maintained through the 2015/16 campaign, i...

Oilseed Highlights

The  Brazilian government's effort to re-evaluate 14 pesticides for possible bans has been ongoing for seven years and stymied by lawsuits as well as...

There is a New Sheriff in Town

Exercising its new role under Dodd-Frank, the CFTC filed a civil lawsuit yesterday (1 April) in federal court charging Kraft Foods Group LLC and its affili...

Market Commentary

Grain and soy markets saw a dual between poor weekly export sales and growing weather concerns ahead of a three-day weekend. Corn futures prices did bounce...

Iran; GMO Prejudice; Fantasies (Local and Export)

The EU's already approved policy to allow member states to decide individually whether GM crops could be grown on their territory was viewed as a net posit...

Antibiotics Back in the Crosshairs

USDA will focus on three specific areas in conjunction with the Obama administration's new National Action Plan for Combating Antibiotic-Resistant Bacteria...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Market Commentary

We see today's upturn of grain and soy futures prices as acknowledgement that yesterday's stocks and prospective plantings really did little to change the...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

The export market for Argentine wheat improved this past week with some buyers from Brazil and Chile. Unfortunately, there is somewhat of a logistical prob...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

The National Association of Exporters of Agricultural Products has requested that the Russian government cancel the wheat export duty midway through its ef...

Funding Pipedreams

The Environmental Working Group (EWG) correctly asserts in its new analysis, "Feeding the World – Without GMOs," that it is "possible" to feed the growing...

USDA’s Acreage and Stocks Reports

Based on pre-report expectations, corn was supposed to be the market's bullish leader, while soybeans were to be further pressured by a large gain in plant...

Market Commentary

The market's reputation for producing a volatile reaction to USDA March stocks and plantings report was well-maintained today. General Comments After a lon...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

While Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan have signed a preliminary agreement regarding Nile water,  the major water source for farming in Egypt and Sudan, it i...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Food Manufacturing Sector in the U.S. to Restructure?

The expected activity in the food sector is based on lowered commodity costs and increased economic growth in the U.S. Most financial analysts see an oppor...

Oilseed Highlights

Today's USDA Stocks Report found total U.S. soybean supplies on 1 March did not quite meet the average analyst estimate but showed an impressive change aga...

Trade Policy Fables

Public Citizen is reporting that the Seattle City Council voted unanimously in opposition to Trade Promotion Authority (TPA). These are the elected leaders...

Status of Farm Bill Implementation

At a subcommittee hearing held last week on the farm bill implementation, different agency administrators reported on the current status of program enrollm...

The Big Show Starts Tomorrow – USDA Acreage & Stocks Reports

The corn and soybean acreage numbers (as always) have attracted the most attention and will be the initial focus of tomorrow's reports. There are a number...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

There are offers of Bulgarian, Romanian, Ukrainian and Russian wheat for April/May shipment at $207-216/MT FOB without close buying interests. There are al...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Nudges; Judges; and Water

The Obama administration, under the lead of First Lady Michelle Obama, has made a laudable attempt at reducing obesity in the U.S. A new book now concludes...

Market Commentary

Soybeans benefited from the fund short covering in the wheat market. Weekly export inspections were also (again) better than expected, and there was some c...

China In-Country Analysis

China's sorghum and barley imports continued to grow in February. The comparative price advantages of both with respect to domestic corn coupled with no qu...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices.\...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Following the sudden rise in domestic corn prices, India's end users are considering imports. Although direct, duty-free corn importation is permitted, cer...

Market Commentary

The soy complex is where the selling was centered today, while wheat tried to recapture some of yesterday's big losses ahead of the weekend. Meanwhile, the...

TPP Stakes; New GHG Risk; Food versus Fuel

Princeton University Research Scholar Tim Searchinger might minimally be called a pain in the backside to the ethanol industry for past statements. He and...

Indecision

With the Tuesday release of USDA's planting intention numbers, the large disparities between the corn quarterly stocks numbers and the trade guesses over t...

Senate Joins House In Passing Budget

The Republican congressional leadership is nearing one of its goals, passage of a joint budget resolution. With a statutory deadline of 15 April,  the...

Animal and Meat Inventories

Several factors indicate that USDA's quarterly Hogs & Pigs Report, scheduled to be released tomorrow, will show a larger swine inventory. How much of a...

Market Commentary

The ongoing South American harvest and the possible increase in 2015 U.S. soybean acres in next week's report is a heavy load for the soybean market to car...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

The Renewable Fuel Standard

The Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) was pushed by the Bush administration with wide bipartisan support in 2005 and 2007, but it demonstrates how risky and ev...

TPA Fight; Productivity

The fight over Trade Promotion Authority (TPA) on Capitol Hill is intensifying and becoming brutish. While both sides in the debate are claiming to have th...

Oilseed Highlights

For the second week in a row, USDA's export inspections report indicated containers of soybeans for shipment to North Korea were inspected last week. Howev...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Market Commentary

Today's relatively narrow futures trading ranges testify to the lack of fresh trading incentives as well as the market's cautious approach to next week's g...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

It was reported that Russian wheat exports decreased 34 percent during 1 February-18 March (compared with the same period in 2014) after introduction of th...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Argentina is poised to harvest approximately 23 MMT of corn, and close to 12 MMT of that should be available for export, assuming the government is willing...

Institutional; Blindness; Omission

While the House Agriculture Committee was receiving testimony 'mostly' advising government action to avoid retaliation for a WTO-illegal  country-of-o...

Speculating About U.S. Crop Acreage

Analytical speculation about the amounts of acreage that will be planted to specific crops began soon after the January reports, and there are numerous fac...

Commodities and the Canadian Election

The Canadian economy has been a winner during the commodities boom of recent years. With recent yearend figures now available, however, that appears to be...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Oilseed Highlights

While participants at this week's 9th Asia Grain Transportation Conference are generally in an upbeat mood, there have been several questions regarding the...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

A tremendous amount of interest regarding investments in Egypt's agriculture was generated at a conference held there last week. Two key development agreem...

Glyphosate; China Policy; Real Food

For foodies, some processed food with substitute ingredients can be bad and others can be good, depending on whether there is an agreeable social cause tha...

Market Commentary

Other than outside factors that were largely ignored, grains and the soy complex had little to trade on today other than weather. Wheat reversed from the l...

Market Commentary

Soybeans led today's push higher in the ag commodities with soybean futures gaining as much as 15-16 cents at one point. The buying was the result of anoth...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

Although old crop wheat on the Black Sea market is now offered at competitive levels versus French and German origins, demand is very difficult to find. Me...

China In-Country Analysis

A number of Chinese crushers have reportedly chosen to suspend operations temporarily for several reasons. Meanwhile, the average crush margin for imported...

Hillary on Trade; Apples; CFTC

Given the outright hostility of labor unions and angst by liberals over the impact of free trade on the U.S. economy, Democratic presidential candidates ar...

House Ag Committee to Hold Five Hearings This Week

This week's ambitious hearing lineup adheres to what Chairman Michael Conway (R-Texas) suggested would be the committee's agenda for the year: CFTC reform,...

More Things to Keep You Up at Night

There are several items that have been in the news recently and are worth thinking about before the planting season starts in earnest.This is the last full...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Unseasonal precipitation across much of India is impacting many crops, particularly wheat, fruits and vegetables. In turn, that is expected to continue aff...

U.S. Wheat Outlook

We won't know what hard red spring wheat and durum acres will total until the 31 March USDA report. Opinions are mixed today with seed dealers continuing t...

How Much Water Does Avoiding Beef Save?

Arguments and exaggerations regarding water use are the lifeblood of a number of issues facing livestock today from those in animal agriculture to producer...

Politicized Science; Costly Legislation

Rather than change the underlying offending Cargo Preference requirement, the U.S. government is proposing to pay $90 million annually to American-flagged...

Market Commentary

Markets were quiet in overnight trade, but that changed radically when the U.S. dollar collapsed and crude oil surged sharply higher. This brought across-t...

Oilseed Highlights

U.S. cottonseed crushing is forecast to decline in 2014/15 to the lowest level in 15 years. There are several reasons for this drop, and the situation may...

Broiler Exports Face Trifecta of Hurdles

Three main factors are impacting U.S. broiler exports, but chicken will also have to compete domestically with dropping pork prices. However, there are a f...

Market Commentary

The grain and soy rally completely stalled out during the day session as the U.S. dollar continued to climb back from yesterday's beating. Soybean futures...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Plain English; Cockfights; Phobic

Congressional approval of Trade Promotion Authority (TPA) is at risk and the Obama White House is pulling out all of the stops. None of this will change th...

In Defense of Free Trade

The current politics of free trade are so complex that the basic issues involved sometimes get lost.One definition of free trade is that it allows me to fr...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

The Brazilian soybean basis is anticipated to soon decline, and that is a potential concern for Argentine soybean producers as their position is being stea...

Market Commentary

The Fed's apparent reluctance to raise interest rates caused a big slide in the U.S. dollar's value in late trade, although it still is near a 12-year high...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Ukraine's grain exports via its sea ports had a slight gain last month against the results of February 2014. Turkey's imports of Ukrainian wheat, however,...

Lower Demand; Self-Sufficiency; TPP Proxy

Major food exporters are counting on growth in middle class incomes in developing countries for increased future demand. However, a recent analysis suggest...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

The volume of Saudi Arabia's wheat imports is notably shifting as its domestic production is affected by a change in land usage. Meanwhile, maize demand is...

Market Commentary

During overnight trade, corn futures prices were unchanged to slightly weaker in slow trade. During the day session, though, fund pressure and technical se...

Oilseed Highlights

The National Association of Oilseed Processors (NOPA) yesterday announced an impressive February soybean crush volume, while the average soyoil yield was s...

Weather and Other Stuff

Weather and production agriculture are inseparable. In the past, the weather market season nominally lasted until about 15 December. With the emergence of...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Both Ways; Not Us; Sort of

The European Commission and members of Parliament continue to debate how to handle the presence of "unauthorized" substances in organic food. It is very di...

Senate Budget Committee to Start Markup Tomorrow

Much of the Senate's budget, which will likely be released this evening or tomorrow morning before a 2:30 pm (EDT) markup, will be focused on Medicare, Med...

China In-Country Analysis

Based on conversations with our market sources, there are actually two companies involved in the recently reported major soybean smuggling operation in Chi...

Lonely Days – Lonely Nights

It has been a challenging period for market analysts who must find something to write about when there really isn't much different happening. We tend to fo...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

The current offer of new crop (August 2015) Russian/Ukrainian 12.5 percent protein wheat is approximately $80/MT lower than the 2014 new crop offer at the...

Weather Market Economy

The concept of a weather market is a well-subscribed orthodoxy in agriculture and a factor in energy markets. First quarter gross domestic product (GDP) da...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Bans and Influences

While 30 countries have imposed bans on the entry of U.S. poultry over the past month due to the outbreak of avian influenza in several states, many have c...

Market Commentary

Soybean futures traded both sides of unchanged today but were mostly lower the last half of the session. The bearish news was that truckers in Brazil did n...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

GOI's recently released Economic Survey 2014-15 strongly advocated cutting subsidies and using new technologies to address problems with the distribution s...

Updated Look at Farm Bill Spending

The dropping prices and the attractiveness of the ARC program under a more bearish market outlook have caused the CBO to update its  cost projections...

Currency Implications; Pesticides Residues

The U.S. dollar continues its surge in relative value, causing concern not just amongst U.S. companies but apparently in Japan as well. Anti-Trade Currency...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

More Things to Keep You Up at Night

U.S. farmers must soon make their 2015 crop revenue insurance decision, and it is likely that they will take reduced coverage per acre in reaction to certa...

Market Commentary

The stronger U.S. dollar, talk that Ukraine was offering corn below U.S. prices and the overall selling mood in all commodities together eventually pushed...

Market Commentary

About two hours after the day session opened, Chicago May wheat traded through its 20-day moving average at $5.05, and a volume of fund buy stop orders was...

Trash-Talking; Pre-TPA TPP

USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack has once again invoked producers of GM and non-GM crops to reach a compromise on coexistence. However, producers of GM crops hav...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Oilseed Highlights

Argentina and Brazil, the two main competitors to the U.S. in the soybean sector, have seen their currencies fall in value to the U.S. dollar. If that tren...

HPAI in Arkansas Turkey Flock

USDA's APHIS has confirmed the presence of highly pathogenic H5N2 avian influenza (HPAI) in a commercial turkey flock in Arkansas, located within the Missi...

Risk Management

Identifying risks and their source would seem to be an obvious necessity for any management plan. However, businesses sometimes incur risks that they are n...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Biofuel Industry Fractures; Kobe Slimed

At least some parts of the U.S. advanced biofuels industry are asking for congressional legislation to change the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS). The reques...

Market Commentary

Overnight trading started out slowly and without price direction. However, a later surge of buy orders in wheat and corn sent prices solidly into the green...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

A Rusagrotrans official indicated the effective export duty for wheat will significantly influence the structure of Russia's March grain exports with barle...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

It seems that U.S. and Black Sea corn became more attractive to global buyers once Argentine prices increased into the mid-50s for the March-July period. T...

EU Balkanization of GMOs

The release of an extensive review of EU policy on GMOs is scheduled for later next month, and some of the pending proposals for future procedures will cau...

Trade, Payrolls and Productivity

Imports and exports both declined steeply in January, driven by two key temporary factors. Meanwhile, like a plow horse, the progress in the labor market d...

Market Commentary

Overnight trade in grain and soy futures was dominated by the U.S. dollar's climb to new heights, and the March WASDE released at noon (EDT) today did not...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

Egypt's ag ministry is reported to have been considering a plan to tax imported corn by as much as $65/MT. However, pressure from the poultry industry and...

Oilseed Highlights

Conab has dropped its estimates for Brazil's soybean crop and area planted to soybeans. However, the agency raised the domestic crush forecast because of a...

The March WASDE

The March WASDE always provides an interesting update on USDA's views about U.S. and world demand as well as its take on South American soybean and corn pr...

Iowa Ag Summit

The main goal of the Iowa Ag Summit was to pin down GOP presidential candidates on their position regarding renewable fuels and the Renewable Fuel Standard...

Selective Merchandising; Ethanol Dinged

While Robert Kenner's "Merchants of Doubt" is set to be released this Friday, the missed opportunity is to make a documentary about the merchants of small,...

Market Commentary

A stronger wheat market helped corn as did more talk that farmers are looking for ways to reduce corn costs because of low prices. Soybean and meal contrac...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

The EU allocated 505,000 MT of wheat export licenses last week, bringing the total to 21.3 MMT versus 20.8 MMT at the same time in 2014. At the current pac...

Anticipating USDA's March WASDE

Analysts appear to be in general agreement regarding expectations for the March WASDE. The crop production forecasts for Brazil and Argentina might be more...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Crude Oil and Corn

Globally, the supply of crude oil and petroleum products is on a trend to hit a record-high 2.83 billion barrels by midyear. The question remains as to wha...

Ag Review: India's Possible Transformation

India's Possible Transformation Long a protectionist, backward country, Prime Minister Narendra Modi is making modest changes that will alter India's agric...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Market Commentary

Talk that Ukraine was trying to double its corn exports to China in the next year plus the strong U.S. dollar brought more fund selling to corn today. Mean...

The Silly Season of Weekly Crop Ratings

These rating numbers have become a trading game. The problem is they are simply not reliable indicators of crop yields and were really never intended to be...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Agriculture received its fair share in the Modi government's first full budget with one of the main proposals targeting the creation of a national agricult...

U.S. Wheat and World Demand

Two important factors that have limited U.S. wheat exports in 2014/15 have been large wheat supplies held by competing origins and the effect of the histor...

End of EU Dairy Quota to Create Beef Bubble

With the EU's longstanding dairy quota  set to expire in April 2015, changes in dairy production as well as herd expansion are expected across a numbe...

Market Commentary

It is possible for large traders to influence charts, and chart action has near-term importance. However, the soy complex currently does not have the same...

TPA Reaction; EU Complexity

Reacting to Republican criticism that President Obama was squandering his opportunity to get Trade Promotion Authority (TPA) through the Congress, the Whit...

Oilseed Highlights

Today's USDA export sales report confirmed the continued seasonal trend in U.S. exports of soybeans, soymeal and soyoil. Meanwhile, Brazil's wildca trucker...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

There is some tension and uncertainty in the pricing dynamics for Paraguayan grain (corn and wheat) as farmers have refused to accept low flat prices for t...

Doha; Biotech; Energy

 In the Doha round of multilateral trade negotiations, several WTO members are apparently now receptive to dumping the "Swiss-formula" approach to agr...

Market Commentary

We are in a period in the crop cycles when markets feel they have pretty well counted up available supplies, and demand becomes the dominant variable.The s...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Ukraine's milling wheat prices rocketed again due to depreciation of the national currency (UAH). Some traders stopped buying as the UAH rate's further dev...

To Label or Not to Label

One issue of great importance to agriculture is the question of whether or not there should a mandate that foods produced from GM materials be labeled as s...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

The USDA report on grain and feed for Israel was issued last week. As expected, it shows that the country is still almost totally dependent on grain import...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Market Commentary

Today's markets provided something for everyone, depending on when you looked. The corn market badly needs a story to tell, but it may not get one until th...

Oilseed Highlights

Argentina has begun requiring monthly reports of silage bag sales to farmers and third party venders in response to a situation that is reducing the amount...

House Ag Review of SNAP

Many observers believe that this year's budget resolution, the first in five years if it comes to the House and Senate floors, will include reconciliation...

Squandering TPA; AGOA Deficit

U.S. Senate Finance Committee Chairman Orrin Hatch (R-Utah) announced that Trade Promotion Authority (TPA) legislation will not be introduced before April...

Agriculture and White House Push for TPA

House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Paul Ryan (R-Wisconsin) issued a press release on Thursday of last week that noted all the major ag and processor g...

Non-GMO Label; Green Politics

Currently, there are privately certified non-GMO labels, but there is a lack of transparency and potential bias in their structure. U.S. soybean growers no...

Of Strikes and Other Soybean Issues

The political mood of the transportation and port industries might play a bigger role in the soybean supply and demand situation than record crop productio...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Market Commentary

May soybeans closed right at the 50-day moving average and at or near the day's lows. The next move might be whether or not the funds try to take that out...

China In-Country Analysis

China's soymeal exports have increased noticeably in the past months, according to recent data, and the volume of soybeans that arrived in the country duri...

Appropriations Panel Reviews FSIS Budget Priorities

The FSIS budget has become one of the more delicate political issues in the past few years because of the 2011 Budget Control Act that reestablished the se...

TPA Threatened; Food Threatened

The U.S. government's has announced a decision regarding water distribution this year to farmers in California's hyper-productive Central Valley that shoul...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

India's government revised the kharif corn production (October/November harvest) forecast from 16.07 MMT to 16.47 MMT. However, the trade and industry ther...

Market Commentary

Price changes in the soy complex today depended on how the market interpreted any news of the Brazilian truckers' strike. Wheat was inexplicably strong tod...

Crop Revenue Update

Some producers are just starting to look at the price calculations and are stunned by the revenue coverage for 2015 crops versus the previous several years...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Oilseed Highlights

While India's previous govenment began stalling the reglatory process for biotech crops in 2010, the victory of Prime Minister Modi's BJP party last year h...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Corn versus Soybeans

Although it may be an oversimplification, the annual spring planting decisions are widely viewed as a fight between corn and soybeans. However, a variety o...

Financial Regulation; TAA

While U.S. congressional leaders calculate how to reach agreement on Trade Promotion Authority (TPA), it is clear that melding U.S. and European agricultur...

Market Commentary

The soy complex ruled futures markets today, and press reports highlighting road blockages by Brazilian truckers ruled the soy complex. The corn and wheat...

Beef Prices Up on Limited Supply

According to USDA, Americans spent about 6.4 percent of their annual consumer expenditures on food in 2012. However, protein prices are rsing at a faster r...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

As Ukraine's currency depreciates, most of the country's grain and oilseed prices have seen significant increases in the past week. Meanwhile, its MY 2014/...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Politocrats; TPA Crunch; Chocolate Hooey

If the FAO wished to accomplish food security, it would promote improved governance, land rights, the availability of inputs, credit and transparent market...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

During the next month, South American farmers will have to start considering their planting intentions for the 2015/16 season. Ther market there, though, i...

Market Commentary

Export demand for U.S. soybeans has begun to lighten as Brazilian shipments get underway, and USDA reported a sale of 120,000 MT of HRW to Egypt under the...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

Egypt's tourism industry, which greatly affects the country's poultry sector, has improved since 2013. There are other factors, though, that are also impac...

Oilseed Highlights

While Brazil raised its biodiesel blending requirement from 6 to 7 percent effective 1 December 2014, truckers there protesting against a diesel fuel tax a...

China In-Country Analysis

A look at the dynamics that transpired in 2014 and the early part of 2015 with commentary and observations on factors shaping the way forward for this and...

No Grease for Greece; Japan’s Next Farm Minister

Greece may have obtained a four-month extension in its fight with the European Union over a budget crisis, but vacating the euro is an uncertain solution f...

Market Commentary

After yesterday's weakness, the corn market was due for a turnaround and had one for most of the session, thanks to the pull from the soybean market Genera...

Economic Report of the President: Climate Change and Ag

The report shows recent change in farm income over the past five years. For the future, it focuses heavily on the threats posed by climate change issues in...

The Stubborn Soybean Market

The outlook for soybeans does continue to appear fundamentally bearish. However, soy complex futures seem reluctant to acknowledge just how bearish the sit...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

The Void Zone

The big problem for markets over the next six weeks is that there will be very little in the way of fresh news to discuss, especially of the bullish variet...

California Cooperatives Petition for Federal Milk Pricing

USDA received a formal hearing request from California Dairies Inc., Land O'Lakes Inc. and Dairy Farmers of America Inc. to establish a Federal Milk Market...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

Russian and Ukrainian wheat are offered significantly lower today versus two weeks ago, but they are still not competitive against French, German and Polis...

Market Commentary

Markets were steady to slightly firmer overnight, but that didn't last long in today's session. The soy complex is very resilient in the face of a record h...

Climate; Spring Planting; Sugar; Biofuel

The Dietary Guidelines Advisory Committee argued last week that sugars should be reduced from the diet and taxes imposed on sugar-sweetened beverages. Now...

Dietary Guidelines

One of the key developments is that while less consumption of red and processed meats is advised, recommendations regarding lean meat are excluded.That is...

Market Commentary

Markets were slightly lower overnight in light volume. This week's pattern of one day strong and the next day weak continued today after yesterday's streng...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

India has announced the draft of a new health certificate that could allow the importation of frozen pork and pork products from the U.S. Currently, those...

TPA; TTIP; Antitrust

Food manufacturers that rely on major distributors to get their products to stores around the U.S. are breathing easier now that the Federal Trade Commissi...

The Acreage Question

The question of what U.S. farmers will plant in 2015 is still looming very large over the markets. Most analysts have been assuming that acreage will decli...

Market Commentary

The market viewed USDA's soybean acreage projection as bullish. The corn acreage number was not a real surprise. Corn futures gained about 6 cents, mostly...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Politicizing Nutrition

The Dietary Guidelines Advisory Committee has recommended the spawning of many mayors like former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg by suggesting that...

Speculative Position Limits

Those who trade in grain and soy complex derivatives are very familiar with speculative position limits. There have been such limits in place since the 193...

Oilseed Highlights

USDA today revealed its estimates for U.S. crop plantings in 2015 at its annual Outlook Conference. In a bit of a surprise and in contrast to many other pr...

COOL Appeal Hearing This Week

The U.S. appeal over the WTO ruling against its country-of-origin-labeling (COOL) regulation is being heard in Geneva this week. It is likely the WTO will...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

The Russian Grain Union announced that spring planting costs will rise at least 40 percent compared to 2014 because of certain other increasing expenses. R...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Argentine corn licenses for new crop have been issued for the time period from 15 March onward. However, early-seeded corn is presently being harvested, an...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Market Commentary

After yesterday's strong market, trade in soybeans and corn was rather noncommittal during the overnight session. Outside factors did not help grain and so...

Drones in Agriculture

The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has released its rules on the commercial use of drones. While the agriculture sector is expected by some to be on...

Market Commentary

Wheat and corn prices changed only modestly, but soymeal and soybean prices were sharply higher with the strong meal market leading the way. General Commen...

Breadth of Ag Support

The number of Americans directly involved in food and agriculture continues to fall, but the sector still retains some influence on Capitol Hill as evidenc...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

The Contrary Grain Sorghum Outlook

There is good reason to devote attention to grain sorghums this year as exports have been soaring with China's huge demand and impacting prices.In USDA's m...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

A recent forecast of Turkey's grain imports indicates a noticeable change due to the effect of the winter weather on that country's wheat and barley produc...

Oilseed Highlights

India's soymeal exports to date have been running far below the pace of a year earlier since October for a number of reasons. However, new data indicates J...

More Things to Keep You Up at Night

It's been a long and quiet week in both the markets and market-making (or breaking) news, but here are some things to keep you up at night: Do you ever wo...

Climate; Japan Ag; Mad Cow; Apples

Departing White House aide John Podesta attacked the Republican-led Congress for failing to address global climate change. However, the blame lies squarely...

Market Commentary

This was Friday the 13th and an impressive day, considering it came ahead of a long holiday weekend in the U.S. The only unlucky people seemed to be t...

More Things to Keep You Up at Night

Recent chatter that cotton acres will decline by 10-15 percent this year also suggests many of those will go to corn, leaving that crop's acreage nearly un...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

It is now hoped that India's new government will be able to  keep the Minimum Support Price (MSP) of fine cereals in check, and the states have b...

Presidents' Day

Monday, 16 February is a U.S. holiday. The markets and our office will all be closed that day.  Please note that the next publication date for Ag Pers...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

WASDE

USDA revised the forecast for total red meat and poultry production compared with the January report, based on changes in all three species.   WASDE...

Oilseed Highlights

While the market is accounting for the pending huge Argentine soybean crop, uncertainty surrounds what farmers will do with the soybean stocks they current...

Constant Change

If there is a single common thread that ties together agricultural crops and all of the varied economic activities that are based on them, it is the consta...

Chlorine; Emissions; the Devil

Agriculture is being targeted for many ills ranging from obesity to water pollution. Now the Food and Agriculture Organization has piled on with a study cl...

Market Commentary

Trading in the grains and soy complex in both the overnight and day sessions was a low volume affair with prices visiting both sides. Meanwhile, weekly exp...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Devaluation Rationalized; Defining Export Subsidies

The U.S. Congress is demanding that currency manipulation be addressed, and now U.S. Treasury Secretary Jack Lew has some explaining to do. Currency Devalu...

Market Commentary

So far in 2014/15, the soybean futures market has been more impressed by the demand for soybeans and soymeal than by soybean supplies. However, it will pro...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russia's wheat export duty that went into effect 1 February was intended to reduce export volumes and decrease domestic prices. However, neither of these g...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

While Brazilian soybeans are presently more competitive than those at the U.S. Gulf for March-May, that spread is not large. Any appreciation of the real o...

Crop Insurance under the Budget Gun

More budget scrutiny is anticipated in the coming year, given the focus on deficits and reduced spending as well as the over-budget projected costs of the...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

More on Currencies; Fundamentals

Legislation that would classify "currency manipulation" as a countervailable subsidy under U.S. trade law could cause unnecessary collateral damage. More o...

Oilseed Highlights

Today's USDA supply and demand report included no major surprises for the soybean sector, but it was slightly positive. There were several revisions to U.S...

Market Commentary

Without new market-moving guidance of their own, grain and soy futures markets again came under the influence of outside factors as they so often have rece...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

The deputy chairman of the Cyprus Grain Commission (CGC) resigned last week and indicated certain steps that the organization will need to implement in ord...

The February WASDE

On a relative (percentage) basis, the biggest change in a U.S. grain or oilseed supply/demand estimate was for grain sorghums. However, perhaps the most cl...

Perfect Currency Storm; Battle of Studies

The U.S. dollar is on a long-term spike in value at the same time other economies are softening, and the timing couldn't be worse for Obama administration...

Eggs and California Lead to Interstate Commerce Bill

In the short term, California's 2008 egg-layer referendum seems to have widened the historical gap between that state's market and other parts of the count...

2015-16 U.S. Soybean Supply & Demand is Bearish

Nearly every analysis including this one agrees on the  2015 U.S. and world soybean outlook. However, the jury is still largely out on at least one im...

China In-Country Analysis

Several factors in conjunction with the late movement by China's feed mills to stock up for the holiday season suggest that the soymeal price will be chang...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

The EU has allocated a higher number of wheat export licenses compared to a year ago at this time.This is not surprising, though, when considering certain...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Market Commentary

Corn led markets higher with wheat struggling, and soybeans traded as much as 8-9 higher at mid-morning, although they couldn't sustain those gains. Most o...

Market Commentary

The markets started slightly lower last night but firmed as the session wore on and finished slightly higher. That trend was reversed once today's session...

Junk Science: Biotech and Pesticides

EU Commissioners failed to reach agreement on approval or disapproval of a dozen pending biotech traits. The fact that politics rather than science largely...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

More Things to Keep You Up at Night

With markets more active than would be expected for early February, there are several issues related to crops and trade  that are worth considering.Ma...

Ag Review: Future Price Action and the Bell Curve

Doomed or Muddling Through Global economic and political developments present many concerns, but there are a few less stark perspectives. The Year Ahead fo...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

India currently grows only one GM crop, cotton. Experts now believe that the country should look beyond cotton as GM production has a proven domestic track...

Presidential Candidates to Appear at Ag Forum in Iowa

On 7 March, an agriculture policy forum for presidential candidates is scheduled at the Iowa State fairgrounds in Des Moines. While the event is targeted t...

Oilseed Highlights

South Africa's farmers have planted a record area to soybeans this year in response to strong domestic demand, which has been rising and is expected to gro...

Market Commentary

It has been a topsy-turvy week for grain and soy futures as well as energy markets as they react to a variety of contrary factors that pushed prices up, do...

Plummeting Pork Prices

Today's pork cutout value was the lowest since spring 2009. One reason is a drop in cases of Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea virus (PEDv), but there are also oth...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Ag as Poster Child; Booze Tax

Members of Congress largely representing agricultural districts may be few in number, but the sector is a poster child for what many in the body see as the...

A Sad but Inevitable Day

Advancing technology made the end of open outcry pit trading of futures inevitable, but it will still be sad to see such a historic, colorful era conclude...

Market Commentary

Soy complex prices fell and gave back half or more of yesterday's gains as trader's recognized that supply/demand fundamentals for soybeans are as bearish...

U.S.–EU Debate; Ag and the Environment

U.S. and EU negotiators meeting this week on the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership have plenty on the agenda. A major hurdle continues to be i...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russia has exported 22.7 MMT of grains as of 28 January and from the beginning of MY 2014/15, 31 percent more than during the same period in MY 2013/14. Th...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Market Trends: 26-30 January 2015During the week in review, wheat prices moved in different directions as prices for other grain crops increased (in RUB ex...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Rather stable corn futures contracts at the CBOT of around $4.00 per bushel and present uncertainty about the ability to export are causing corn basis to w...

One View of the South American Soybean Outlook

Much like the U.S., Brazil produces soybeans over a huge land mass, virtually assuring that every crop has developed under a variety of weather conditions...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Budget Surprises; LDP’s TPP Plan

The Obama administration's budget once again proposes reorganizing certain government functions, but also seeks to increase funds for a few agricultural-re...

Market Commentary

Recent increases in open interest in corn, soybeans and wheat have suggested that new noncommercial shorts had entered the market. Today's sudden rally in...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

According to reports from Russia, wheat cargoes to Egypt's GASC are delayed in the ports there and exporters/traders will now be liable for the new Russian...

Oilseed Highlights

The government of Indonesian President Joko Widodo has proposed more than tripling the subsidy for biodiesel in order to expand production and help the pal...

Details on Ag Proposals in the President’s Budget

Two of the changes to USDA spending programs included in President Obama's proposed FY 2016 budget are related to the federal crop insurance program and co...

Market Commentary

The soy complex opened higher this morning despite overnight news that China's latest PMI number was below 50 for the first time in two-and-a-half years. E...

China In-Country Analysis

On 1 February, China's central government released its annual guidelines for the domestic economy and key policy reforms, known as China's "No.1 Central Do...

TTIP Skepticism; Food Movement

Supposed horizontal regulatory principles are on the TTIP agenda and include an earlier U.S. proposal for handling SPS issues. However, the EU has imposed...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Crop Revenue Insurance Pricing Started Today

Farmers previously knew well in advance of the planting season that they would have big per acre revenue guarantees from the insurance program regardless o...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

Ukrainian corn is under heavy pressure. At current prices, it is more competitive against U.S. origin to Asia, although not by much. The last trades to Sou...

President Submits Budget for FY 2016

The budget was very much in line with the proposals in President Obama's State of the Union address and included a number of new tax proposals  that w...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

India's 2013/14 vegetable oil imports grew by 12 percent to a record high of 11.82 MMT and are expected to rise further. GOI has raised the import duties o...

Farm Operating Loans and Livestock Loans Up on Down Market

The Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank released its report on farm lending for the fourth quarter of 2014, which showed non-real estate loans are up about 50...

Petroleum; Europe’s Future

There is a terrific mess in Europe, and the attitude of the newly-elected Greek government that it must be granted debt relief is posing a massive challeng...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Market Commentary

Much of the world was lower on this last trading day of January. Soybean and soymeal futures were down double-digits off and on as fund liquidation and mor...

U.S. Corn Supply and Demand Outlook

Those analysts with a bearish slant, probably representing the higher percentage today, will at least use a big yield estimate and are also likely to have...

New Dairy Margin Protection Program Costs

The CBO's latest 10-year budget baseline estimates total costs of the Dairy Margin Protection Program (DMPP) have changed significantly from the April 2014...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Market Commentary

Wheat, corn and soyoil all fell to new lows for the month. The day session at least had USDA's weekly export sales report to trade on, although how much in...

Environment; Biotech; Biofuel; Beef and Pork

U.S. EPA is working on a plan to slow the adaptation by corn rootworms to corn that has been genetically modified to contain Bacillus thuringiensus (Bt). M...

Oilseed Highlights

The U.S. biodiesel industry and oilseed producer organizations are livid at the Obama administration for its announcement this week that it would facilitat...

Trading Ranges

The corn and wheat futures markets have clearly abandoned their trading ranges of last fall and are trying to find new ones at some lower level.There are a...

Market Commentary

The strong U.S. dollar has been one of the factors pressing on commodity prices (including grains and the soy complex) and certainly was part of the reason...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Ukraine's Agrarian Policy and Food Minister Oleksiy Pavlenko signed a Memorandum of Understanding with grain exporters on 27 January. The parties agreed th...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Argentine farmers are considering how to be strategic next season with low domestic prices and limited credit. During the past few crop cycles, they switch...

Competitive Devaluation

Both Democrats and Republicans in congressional hearings this week expressed disappointment that currency manipulation policy has not been made part of the...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Brazil: The Year of the Soybean

Not very often do North and South America enjoy such similarly beneficial weather for spring planted crops during the same crop cycle as has been seen duri...

Oilseed Highlights

The March soybean futures contract price fell by 8.75 cents/bushel today, apparently as a result of USDA reporting an exporter's cancellation of a 120,000...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

Turkey is said to have imported as much as 200,000 MT of EU rapeseed in recent months with more expected after it rejected stocks from the Black Sea when G...

Market Commentary

Biding time seems to be the dominant strategy within grain markets. Short-term strategies to scalp limited returns are expected to influence day-to-day act...

CBO Issues 10-Year Outlook on Budget and Crop Prices

The report includes an economic forecast and projections of spending and revenues under current law over the next 10 years. It is of course a tall order to...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Good Vibes; Obvious Outcomes

Unsurprising to those in the rice trade, Bangkok is now indicating that it will be dumping millions of tons of surplus rice onto the world market. PLC Tol...

China In-Country Analysis

China's 2014 sorghum imports increased more than fivefold to 5.78 MMT from 1.08 MMT in 2013, according to China Customs. Demand was driven in part by the i...

A Peek at Weather

The major concern isn't with 2015 crop production across the Corn Belt and northern Plains, but with what could occur in 2016 and 2017. That apprehension i...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Europe Split; New WTO Path

Without ambition, countries will use platforms other than the WTO to negotiate trade liberalization (aka Trans-Pacific Partnership, etc.). Too much ambitio...

Market Commentary

Soybean futures were slightly lower much of the night session, but reversed that trend and traded slightly higher most of today's session. The only bullish...

Ethanol Industry Seeking E-30 under New Fuel Standards

According to the EPA, the petitioners' primary interests are to increase ethanol use and protect or improve their competitive position, which it maintains...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

Strategie Grains has raised its EU wheat export estimate from December by 2.1 MMT to 29.3 MMT (unchanged from last year) due to Russia's export restriction...

CFTC; Hemp; Sugarcoating

Who could be against industrial hemp production? After all, the U.S. consumes more hemp products than any other country, and yet it is the only major indus...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

India's poultry sector has exerted tremendous pressure on the government to create new rules that would prohibit imports of U.S. chicken leg quarters as th...

House Agriculture Committee’s Organizational Meeting

New Chairman Mike Conaway (R-Texas) laid out his agenda for the committee and has reorganized a number of subcommittees to better suit his announced priori...

U.S. Farm Program – the Gift That Keeps on Giving

The new farm program offers a much higher level of income protection than previously and will therefore offer a greater safeguard from an extended bear mar...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Oilseed Highlights

Data released by China's General Administration of Customs indicated the country imported 32,005,374 MT of soybeans from Brazil, its top supplier, in CY 20...

Market Commentary

Corn had been trading unchanged to lower overnight, but the export sales numbers did bring some buying to this morning's opening.The collapse in the euro,...

China and Grain Sorghum Excitement

Much of grain sorghum's sudden rise in China is due to government policies, announced or not, designed to protect the price of domestic corn production.If...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Market Commentary

As expected, the European Central Bank (ECB) announced a quantitative easing (QE) program to begin in March. What was not expected is its size. Meanwhile,...

Non-Tariff Barriers; Doha Nowhere

WTO Director General Roberto Azevêdo thinks that heads of delegations are going to come up with a Doha work plan by July, but the gulf remains too wide to...

Court Case Precedent on Manure Management

In a district court case decided last week in the state of Washington, a judge applied the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA) to dairy manure fo...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Argentine wheat acreage has been in steady decline during the past few years due to government efforts to control domestic bread prices. This has depressed...

Market Commentary

Technically, the corn market has moved away from the upward trend that has prevailed since October and appears to be looking for a new lower trading range...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Only 6,855 MT of 5th grade wheat were bought in the course of Russia's market intervention trading session on 20 January. The volume of grains available fo...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

EU Science; ISIS Wins; Protection Up and Down

The newly sworn-in U.S. Senate voted this week to table (against) a "Buy America" requirement as part of the construction of the Keystone XL oil pipeline...

President Obama to Deliver State of the Union Address

A few items likely to be covered tonight in the SOTU that are of more direct interest to agriculture are the proposed treatment of capital gains in the pre...

SOTU; Ethanol; Russia; Rhetoric

It must be something about the position, because UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) Director General José Graziano da Silva is now making the same...

Market Commentary

The grains and soy complex started out this holiday-shortened week weaker across the board in overnight trade. Soybeans continued to stay that way, but cor...

Corn Market Anomaly

Noncommercial traders still retain a net long of about 244,000 contracts as of 13 January. This is a huge long position, given that the fundamental outlook...

Oilseed Highlights

While soymeal demand is down in Europe for several reasons, USDA has surprisingly increased its forecast for EU soymeal consumption in 2014/15 by 400,000 M...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

MENA wheat importers report that Russia is making wheat exports more difficult in advance of its new export duty set to begin 1 February. The expansion of...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Tax Reform Assigned to Senate Working Groups

The working groups are to submit their reports to the Finance Committee by May 2015. However, it will be surprising if this process moves quickly, if at al...

Market Commentary

The important news in the soy complex today was USDA's announcement of the cancellation of 285,000 MT of U.S. soybean sales to China. No one knows if this...

A Long Week in the Markets

The week began with the Monday release of USDA's reports, which were not as bearish corn or as bullish soybeans as many had expected. Today's announcement...

Money; Cuba; TPP

Politicians and financial market players are fond of blaming one another, but they are really quite similar. Each believes they should be perpetually takin...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

While India's 2014/15 wheat production is expected to exceed last year's, its areas under pulses and oilseeds have been reduced. This is expected to have f...

WASDE

The January WASDE, released this week, included the updated year-end 2014 estimates showing red meat production up from the December report and supported s...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Market Commentary

Grain and soy markets were modestly higher overnight ahead of USDA's weekly export sales report and the National Oilseed Processor Association's (NOPA's) D...

Too Much Wheat, Too Little Demand

Large production increases and limited demand growth lead to enlarging stocks, and that is what is happening to world wheat supplies as well as those of th...

WUS; Jones Act; BsAs

The U.S. EPA released a 408-page technical report detailing 1,200 peer-reviewed scientific studies that it believes justifies its proposed regulation of mo...

Oilseed Highlights

Insufficient rainfall is becoming a growing concern for soybean farmers in the Brazilian states of Goias and Mato Grosso. Meteorologists say this may no lo...

Market Commentary

Corn futures prices tumbled about a dime on bearish technical signals and growing stocks of ethanol that will likely lead to lower production and therefore...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

It was announced that  Ukraine is not going to introduce restrictions on grain exports and that the total MY 2014/15 grain export volume may reach 33...

Biofuel Policy; TTIP Trouble

Falling oil prices will redistribute money away from producers and to consumers, but the question is whether biofuel policy adjusts in a timely and correct...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

USDA data released on Monday confirmed that global supplies are abundant, and any prospect of South American farmers soon being rescued by escalating price...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

The Egyptian government is discussing the reopening of government-owned dairy operations that were all but totally closed down in 2008 after years of falli...

Oilseed Highlights

The sharp rise in China's soybean imports for CY 2014 supports the view that hundreds of millions of Chinese are still increasing their consumption of anim...

Two Views Times Two

The European Parliament finally voted into law the right of EU member states to deny the planting of biotech crops otherwise approved for safety by the Bru...

After the Reports, What Now?

Pondering the combined reports as a whole, we cannot escape the bottom-line feeling that their overall tone is bearish. However, there are several "passage...

Market Commentary

The day session was not quiet as traders refined their collective responses to yesterday's series of reports from USDA. The results were wide trading range...

Understanding the U.S. Crude Oil Market

The boom in U.S. crude oil production has been a game changer in terms of handling and refining crude oil as well as supply. This is impacting the market a...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Beaks with Teeth; Sugar Beating

The newly announced Chinese ban against imports of poultry and eggs from the U.S. due to a high pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) outbreak in the Pacific N...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

The market is still trying to evaluate the impact of Russia's export tax that is scheduled to be implemented 1 February, and exporters are reluctant to mak...

USDA Reports Send Mixed Signals

Many analysts were expecting smaller harvested acres of corn and soybeans. We received the opposite today with an increase in both of those as well as a su...

Market Commentary

Markets were mixed overnight in extremely light trading volume ahead of today's 12 pm (EST) USDA reports. The direction of the markets and the volume of tr...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

China In-Country Analysis

With a number of Chinese processors preferring imported corn over domestic due to the former's lower price and higher quality, there are many applications...

Looking At Trade: Labor Strikes and Bearish Oil Impacts

The big story in the U.S. 2014 trade balance came in two chapters with the first being the labor dispute at the West Coast ports and the second concerning...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

The Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA) has expressed the industry's concern that some mills will soon file for debt reconstruction due to difficulties p...

State Court, House and Senate Committees All Boost Keystone

Today the House of Representatives passed a bill to authorize construction of the Keystone XL pipeline just hours after the Nebraska Supreme Court upheld t...

USDA Report Preview

The quarterly corn stocks estimate is the one that always seems to hold unexpected news for the market. Surprises in this report will be as significant as...

Market Commentary

Markets were quietly mixed in overnight trade, and that pattern held through much of today's session as well. Traditional funds are estimated to be long 51...

Whipsawed Meat; Sinking Ship; Border Success

It is easy to focus on headline issues like the failed U.S. country-of-origin labeling (COOL) requirement, but U.S. and Mexican officials this week noted s...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Looking Back, Looking Ahead

As we transition from one year to the next, it has become our habit to make some not-so-fearless forecasts for the upcoming year. With a bow to intellectua...

Market Commentary

The wheat market was the loss leader again with old crop contracts of Chicago and KC wheat falling 11-12 cents to the lowest level in about five weeks. The...

Pork Production Up in 2015

Hog producers have already farrowed 3 percent more sows this past fall. The larger number of young pigs will begin to move pork production above the previo...

Counterintuitive; Wrong Crop; Barriers

A Pew Research survey finds most Americans support free trade as good for the country, though only a minority believes that it creates jobs. There is a mor...

Oilseed Highlights

India's Solvent Extractors Association yesterday released protein export data for December 2014. The report indicated the month's soymeal exports totaled 1...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Argentine exporters are again facing the same problems they encountered during the past two seasons that resulted from selling large volumes of feed barley...

Market Commentary

Corn futures closed down almost 9 cents, giving back almost all of Monday's entire rally. Falling ethanol production and dropping margins weighed on the ma...

Bust; Feints; Change; Thankless

The United Arab Emirates (UAE) has reportedly launched an effort to sustainably produce quinoa on the Arabian Peninsula by 2021, no doubt  attracted t...

Oilseed Highlights

It is quite uncommon for rain to fall in India's Rajastan state in the winter. However, reports indicate precipitation was received in several areas where...

Biotech; Meat; Forex

China is considering a food safety change that would require the labeling of foods containing genetically engineered components, banking that public awaren...

A View of U.S. Corn Production and Stocks

No matter what corn yield and production numbers one might use for the U.S. 2014 crop, they will set new records by wide margins. This crop shows the kind...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

News UpdatesMEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST COMMENTSEgypt's Ministry of Supply has announced that the maximum moisture level for imported wheat will remain uncha...

Market Commentary

What is interesting is the extent to which grain and soy futures appear (so far) to be mostly unmoved by the current outside market turmoil. The soy comple...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

Egypt's Ministry of Supply has announced that the maximum moisture level for imported wheat will remain unchanged at 13.5 percent. It also said that the co...

Oilseed Highlights

It is quite uncommon for rain to fall in India's Rajastan state in the winter. However, reports indicate precipitation was received in several areas where...

The EPA Considers Sorghum for Cellulosic

The National Sorghum Producers (NSP) had asked that the EPA conduct an evaluation to determine which biofuels category (including cellulosic ethanol) could...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

China In-Country Analysis

In a surprising turn of events, Chinese regulators recently lifted the ban on U.S. DDGS that had been set in place in October over concerns regarding the d...

Oil Prices: Looking Beyond the Bears

Ever since the late November OPEC meeting where the Saudis pledged specific efforts to stem the growth in light-tight U.S. oil production, the bears have b...

Nigeria; Mexico

The People's Democratic Party (PDP) has governed Nigeria since rule by the military ended 15 years ago. However, luck may run out on the PDP and the reelec...

Market Commentary

The soy complex continues to defy the calls for its demise. No one is certain what triggered today's round of buying, but it was effective and pushed soybe...

Weather, Where Art Thou?

The markets are still not very worried about world weather, but some concerns have been expressed occasionally about the condition of the world's winter wh...

Barbarians Indeed

The barbarians, in this case, are the institutional investors who are increasingly turning their attention and money toward agriculture and, specifically,...

Liberalize; Disparate; Uniform; Will Not Happen

The Nikkei is reporting that the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement could entail uniform tariffs on agricultural trade across all 12 countries with...

Market Commentary

The sharp breaks in the soy and wheat markets seemed to overpower any friendly news in the corn market. The technical outlook for corn has also turned bear...

Meat and Livestock Overview

The newly organized North American Meat Institute (NAMI) has charged the federal Dietary Guidelines Advisory Committee with dropping a recommendation to in...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Since India lost the case at the WTO regarding the import ban on U.S. poultry, there has been pressure on the Ministry of Commerce and Department of Animal...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Market Commentary

Futures trading on this last day of the year saw Chicago wheat fall 10-12 cents. Corn futures dropped more than 9 cents – a major move for the corn market...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

TPP Signals; Cheers via Trade

The Nikkei reports that Japanese Prime Minister Shinzō Abe would like to visit the United States in late April or early May. It notes that the Obama White...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

An initial estimate of Russia's 2014 grain and leguminous crop harvest indicates that it should surpass the 2013 total. Meanwhile, implementation of the ne...

Oilseed Highlights

The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service has announced it will conduct a one-year review of the monarch butterfly to determine whether it warrants protection und...

The Russian Wheat Outlook

The questions now to be answered are how much wheat will Russia export by the end of January and how much of the world's 2014/15 wheat demand, which it pot...

Market Commentary

Having dropped more than 50 cents from recent highs, the wheat market is sending bearish technical momentum signals that seem likely to continue. The corn...

Meat: End-of-Year Cold Storage and 2015 Trends

USDA released its cold storage report yesterday afternoon with a few surprises for the trade, while today's Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report indicates that p...

Europe; Russia; Lobbyists; Food Safety

The Financial Times (FT) has frequently ranted against the austerity measures imposed on other EU members by Germany, but also voices skepticism about the...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

Egypt's Chamber of Tourism reports that a side effect of the Russian situation is a 30 percent decline in hotel bookings. The decrease will have a serious...

Market Commentary

Markets were mixed in the overnight session with corn steady, while wheat and soybeans were higher. Volume was again light overnight but picked up consider...

2015: Policy Debates Ahead

The farm bill debate in 2014 focused more on efforts to cut food assistance to the poor than on program benefits to farmers. That will change in the future...

China In-Country Analysis

Following its previous efforts to limit corn imports and unwind the large surplus of domestic stocks, China's National Reform and Development Commission (N...

Another Volatile Year

The bearish news was all on the supply side. 2014 was a year of record world crop production, which couldn't have come at a better time with world supplies...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

California Egg Restrictions Go into Effect in 2015

California's infamous egg-layer referendum of 2008 comes home to roost on New Year's Day as all eggs sold in the state must comply with the associated regu...

Market Commentary

The impact of Russia's significant tariff on wheat exports that was announced is yet to be determined. Markets opened steady to higher with soybeans up 3-5...

USDA Implementing Crop Insurance Yield Exclusion

According to USDA, nearly 80 percent of all acres and liability that are covered in the federal crop insurance program will be eligible for YE beginning in...

More Things to Keep You Up at Night

Recent warm weather across the Northern Hemisphere has left zero snow cover across nearly all of the winter wheat production regions of the U.S. and Black...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

The long-standing demand from the Solvent Extractors Association (SEA) of India to boost the duty for crude and refined edible oils was met by the governme...

NEI Deadline; India’s Games

The National Export Initiative (NEI) launched by President Obama in his 2010 State of the Union address failed to double American exports (up around half t...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

The Russian grain market was influenced by several very serious factors during the week in review. These included the sharp ruble devaluation, a suspension...

Market Commentary

The volume of overnight trade appeared to be quite low as one might expect just before a major holiday. Markets were mixed overnight with wheat and soybean...

India; AGOA

In its latest report on India's trade policy plan, the ITC notes that the number of U.S. companies adversely affected by restrictive Indian measures has ju...

India; AGOA

In its latest report on India's trade policy, the ITC notes that the number of U.S. companies adversely affected by restrictive Indian measures has jumped...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

A large part of Chinese soybean needs for February will be covered by U.S. origin, which will reduce the demand for Brazilian stocks. That is not good as a...

A Look Backward at 2014

2014 will surely go down as one of the most memorable years in U.S. crop production history. Planted corn acreage in 2014 fell almost 5 percent below the p...

Oilseed Highlights

Reports out of Europe indicate the EU's ban on the use of neonicotinoid insecticides is likely to result in a substantial decrease in its 2015 rapeseed pro...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

Turkey is now the world's largest exporter of wheat flour, shipping as much as 2 MMT per year. Although quite a bit of that flour goes to Asia, its two mai...

CFTC Rulemaking; Monopsonists, Bureaucratize

For years, the leadership of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) complained that it could not do its job due to inadequate budget resource...

Market Commentary

Overnight and again during the day session, grain and soy futures traded both sides in light holiday-type volume. The corn market was the most placid with...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

U.S. and Mexico Cut Deal on Sugar Case

Once the agreements are signed, the Commerce Dept. will suspend the existing AD and CVD cases against Mexican sugar without issuing final determinations on...

China In-Country Analysis

It is clear that China's new administration continues to consider the nation's agricultural development and reform to be its top priority as adjustments in...

Market Commentary

Corn had another day of light volume and not much actual price movement. It sat back and watched as wheat traded double-digit gains and then backed off to...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

China and Sorghum, Etc.

What analysts have missed, or at least ignored, is that China replaced U.S. corn imports with U.S. sorghum over the past 12 months on an almost one-for-one...

Sugarplums; Turkey

Anti-Big Ag campaigners are quick to blame food and the industry for obesity, but there are two fundamental sides to the equation: calories in and calories...

Obama Cuba Initiative to Face Congressional Hurdles

If this initiative is to move forward in any form from diplomatic relations to some sort of trade expansion over the next two years (the duration of the re...

An Early Peak at USDA Baseline

It's important to remember that the numbers released yesterday are really just snippets from the baseline projections that will be released in full in Febr...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

While India is committed to a continued investment in basic science and adherece to stated government policy, it seems that the NGOs are undermining the re...

Market Commentary

Markets were weak overnight with wheat leading the way down after yesterday's technically poor closes. Corn again had a very docile trading day, considerin...

New Senate Ag Committee

In the 113th Congress, the Democratic majority enjoyed a two-seat advantage on this committee with 11 spots to the minority's nine. That ratio will switch...

JCCT Delivers; Stories of 2014 and 2015

The outcome of this week's U.S.–China Meeting of the Joint Commission on Commerce and Trade (JCCT) is even better than hoped. USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack's...

The Cuban Détente

Since the embargo and economic isolation have failed, it seems like a good time to try economic engagement instead, especially given that there will be som...

Oilseed Highlights

Because the U.S. has an overwhelming share of the soybean, soymeal and soyoil imports by other countries in the Caribbean, Central America and Mexico, ther...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Canadians Using Hot Rhetoric over COOL

As the Canadian Cattlemen Association has indicated, any retaliatory tariffs will be targeted toward products from states where legislators and lawmakers h...

Hijinks; Misfueled; Green; Hope

India proudly announced its launch of the 630-ton geosynchronous satellite launch vehicle known as the MKIII. However, the government could better have use...

Market Commentary

It was a day of consolidation for a number of commodity markets, some of which took place after wild price swings. The wheat market added more risk premium...

List of 40 RFS Reform Ideas Released

The Bipartisan Policy Center (BPC) staff constructed the options into a list, noting that the effort was directed at  providing reform and not repeal...

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