Grain and soy prices traded slightly firmer overnight, but they faded to red early in the day session and stayed that way through the close. Some of the we...
Articles
Black Sea Regional Analysis
The Russian Ministry of Agriculture’s first forecast for the 2016 grain harvest estimated it at 104 MMT. However, market experts are not as optimistic with...
Food with Pathogens
People in the conventional food business are smiling as Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. walks back from its pledge to use “local” ingredients at it...
Omnibus and Tax Extender Deal Reached
Lawmakers reached a deal early this morning on the omnibus spending bill and the tax extender package. There are a number of provisions in both that signif...
A Few Random Thoughts
It is mid-December, a time when grain, soy and other commodity markets are anticipated to slow down with the Christmas holiday looming in 10 days. However,...
Still Awaiting the Omnibus
The omnibus budget bill has still not been released, although it was expected to be this afternoon. Received reports indicate that a large number of the am...
Market Commentary
With the stronger U.S. dollar, weaker soybeans and corn plus the absence of any supportive news or inputs, today’s stronger wheat market seems hard to rati...
Sickest; U.S. Dilemma; Perishable Cost
The World Health Organization (WHO) produced its first ever estimate of food-borne illnesses. While there are worse places in the world, the U.S. is a prim...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
Pakistan reportedly has a large surplus of wheat that will rise considerably after the next harvest. If the government does adjust the export price, which...
Oilseed Highlights
Because of low cotton lint prices, the U.S. cotton industry is asking USDA to make cottonseed eligible for the Agricultural Risk Coverage (ARC) and Price L...
COP 21 Exemptions; Doha and Nairobi; Surveys
The Paris agreement on greenhouse gas reductions is at once a marvel and a façade. It reveals the extraordinary difficulty of getting a Conference of Parti...
China In-Country Analysis
Last week’s domestic corn prices averaged RMB 2,050/MT ($318.50/MT), a slight decline from the previous week. Local traders indicated a similar drop in the...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
The Black Sea market for milling wheat remained about unchanged last week without any major trades reported. While the price in rubles is attractive to Rus...
Preliminary USDA Baseline Projections
USDA released its preliminary 10-year baseline projections last Friday without much narrative. Like the weekly crop condition reports during the growing se...
Market Commentary
The markets started the week mixed in the Sunday evening session, but corn, wheat and soybean futures traded higher through most of today. There was none o...
No Budget and Tax Agreement – Debate Likely to Continue This Week
Indications from Capitol Hill suggest that the package could be released tomorrow, 15 December. House Speaker Paul Ryan says he remains committed to allowi...
Market Commentary
Markets were choppy overnight with corn and wheat slightly lower as soybean futures traded 3-4 higher on light volume. That pattern changed at this m...
Renegotiation of TPP; Cotton Fluff
Word is that USDA is considering allowing cotton farmers access to not just the subsidy program the industry demanded as their key support in the 2014 Farm...
El Nino Weather Notes
El Nino has become a popular topic of conversation these days, although it probably never made the news during the 1997-98 event.Paul Douglas, a nationally...
Current Budget Situation in Historical Context
Not one of the 12 regular appropriations bills for FY 2016 needed to be passed by 1 October 2015 under regular order was finalized. In fact, this has been...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Lower corn production in India led to higher prices for end users in early October 2015, forcing starch plants to reduce capacity with poultry operators pl...
Status of COOL
While the WTO approved $1 billion in retaliatory tariffs over the U.S. country-of-origin labeling (COOL) law, which will be imposed by Canada and Mexico as...
Market Commentary
After a listless overnight session, grain and soy futures prices began to work higher as the day session developed. The only things new were the weekly exp...
Growing Abundance
The definition of abundance forms the most significant common thread in USDA’s December WASDE as it projects large amounts of everything in its supply/dema...
Congress in Action
Amidst a great deal of cynicism and doubt, the U.S. Congress is on a path toward several accomplishments before departing late next week for the holidays.A...
Oilseed Highlights
CARIBO, the organization representing Argentina’s biodiesel producers, indicated it is seeking to prevent the U.S. Congress from converting the current bio...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
There were few developments in either the FOB or FAS grain markets early this week in Argentina due to national holidays there. Local premiums did not even...
Market Commentary
The December WASDE is market neutral, and the corn and soy markets apparently came to the same conclusion. Wheat futures have been more impressed by today’...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
322,200 MT of grains were exported from Ukrainian seaports during 30 November-6 December. This included 109,300 MT of wheat and 212,900 MT of corn. The lar...
GHGs; Locals; AMR; Produce
The Center for Science in the Public Interest looked at data from the Centers for Disease Control and concluded that fresh produce is the cause of most foo...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Ag Review: The 2016 Outlook
Technology, Finance, Geopolitics and Demographics The big four dynamics of technology, finance, geopolitics and demographics will collide to make 2016 very...
Broken Dispute Settlement; TPP Disappointments
The years-long effort to achieve a final outcome in the country-of-origin labeling (COOL) case by Canada and Mexico against the U.S. is one more example of...
Headline News
Some of the news headlines during the next week or two just might provide some of inputs for agricultural markets that have been missing during the l...
What’s Going on in Congress?
All Congress had to do was pass the omnibus spending bill before 11 December, the date when the current short-term continuing resolution expires. Each cham...
Market Commentary
Today’s market was a low volume affair during which it seemed corn and wheat prices hardly moved. The soy complex is where the action, or what passes for a...
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
Jordan’s grain import rules are said to be having a very serious effect on business there as can be seen by the lack of bidders in recent tenders and...
Oilseed Highlights
Argentina’s incoming finance minister told the newspaper La Nation that the government wants to unify the nation’s exchange rate beginning 14 December. The...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Bulgarian feed wheat was competitive against Ukrainian last week when the EUR/USD was below 1.06. With that rate close to 1.085 today, however, the Bulgari...
China In-Country Analysis
After weeks of steady increases, China’s nationwide estimated soymeal inventory declined slightly last week to 1.35 MMT from 1.39 MMT the week before as fa...
USDA’s December Reports Shouldn’t Hold Any Surprises
While USDA will make some changes to world production numbers, It is interesting to note where the ending supplies of the three major crops are located.USD...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
Markets started the week mixed in the overnight session. That tone changed significantly when markets opened at 8:30 a.m. today, and it didn’t take long fo...
WTO Ruling on COOL
The WTO today ruled that Canada and Mexico are authorized to impose more than $1 billion in retaliatory tariffs on products shipped from the United States...
Ridiculous Equality; UnCOOL Futures
The climate change conference in Paris is generating some of the ridiculous along with the rational, evidenced by a Global Justice Now statement claiming t...
Leverage; Organic Truth; Confusion
The U.S. is refusing to concede any significant reforms to its agricultural export credit and food aid programs as part of the revisions to export measures...
Stats Canada’s Final 2015 Crop Production Estimates
Statistics Canada released its final 2015 crop production estimates today, although these numbers are still subject to revisions for the next two years. Th...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
Wheat, corn and soybean futures all started higher this morning. Funds are holding significant short positions in all three, while yesterday’s rally in the...
Trudeau Issues Marching Orders; COOL Looms
New Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has issued ministerial mandate letters to his cabinet as one of the first issues confronting the new agriculture...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
India's pulses crisis is expected to escalate as the new crop will only arrive at the market in April/May 2016, and the government will need to import addi...
Market Commentary
The corn and soy markets were buoyed by the sharply falling U.S. dollar and fund buying, but much less so than wheat. Soymeal and oil were also slightly fi...
Oilseed Highlights
One of the main reasons the ruling power in Venezuela is likely to lose this Sunday's election is the nation’s acute lack of foreign exchange to purchase i...
A Law of Unintended Consequences
Many of the new regulations stemming from the Dodd-Frank bill apply to derivative markets and their participants. Unintended consequences abound, but there...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Cloned Beef in China
The FDA has concluded that meat from clones and clone progeny is as safe as that from conventionally-bred animals. Now there is news from China indicating...
Dumb Labels; Smart WTO; Monetary Spillover
Commodity markets jolted higher today, not because of any tightening of supply and demand but due to the technical reaction to Europe failing to meet finan...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Most grain exporters in Russia have stopped signing new contracts with Turkey, fearing introduction of a ban because of the current conflict between...
Market Commentary
The overnight session saw shrinking volume, lower prices for the grains and a stronger soy complex amid less-than-satisfactory weather forecasts for west/c...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
While Brazilian beans are offered at +144 SH for February, U.S. beans are traded in the low 130s SF for January and could be around 135-140 SH for February...
Oceanic Divides; Food Centric
USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack called a spade a spade in Brussels this week when he said that there will be no Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Potential Cropping Shifts in Argentina
With the elimination of the export taxes and quantitative restrictions on corn, wheat and sunseed, the incentive to farmers will change substantially. Beca...
Currency; TPP Aspirants; GMOs; COP 21
The Coordinated Framework for the Regulation of Biotechnology has not been updated in 23 years, and the Obama administration is collecting public input on...
Thriving World Derivative Trade
To keep track of developing trends in the world trade of futures and options contracts, which now also include cleared swaps, the Futures Industry Associat...
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
Jordan continued to issue, cancel and reissue its wheat and barley tenders due to a lack of participation by international sellers. It is seeing some tende...
Market Commentary
Soybeans and soymeal held their higher prices together during the day session, but the corn market struggled to maintain green numbers. The wheat market ga...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Biofuel Volumes Set
Probably the most significant news from today's announcement is that the EPA has recalculated its assessment of carryover Renewable Identification Numbers...
Argentina and Other Topics
There was an announcement over the weekend regarding Argentina's agricultural product export taxes as well as new information out of India about the status...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
The Black Sea milling wheat market is lower due to the strength of the U.S. dollar and slow demand. Russian origin is facing more competition from France,...
Market Commentary
Overnight markets were sharply steady to start this week. A rally developed with today’s openings, however, led by the soy complex with corn and wheat foll...
Paris Greenwashing; Biofuel Odds; Yuan
The City of Lights is glowing green this week, but environmentalists are charging that corporate sponsors of the UN conference on global climate change in...
China In-Country Analysis
China's average domestic corn price continued to see gains last week. Looking ahead, prices for corn byproducts should trend upward as demand for bot...
Consumer Price Index Up for Protein
USDA is now predicting beef prices will increase 6.5-7.5 percent in 2015 and another 1.5-2.5 percent in 2016, while poultry and egg prices are also forecas...
Struggling Crops
There are a number of crops from Brazil to India that are being negatively impacted by weather events, which could have implications for planting decisions...
Market Commentary
This week's corn export sales, which were well above expectations for the second week in a row, had no impact on today’s trade. Prices were lower in light...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
The corn arrivals at India's major production centers have been slow as this kharif season’s crop is expected to be much smaller than last year. Ther...
Leftovers
U.S. domestic catfish producers hope that USDA's final rule implementing a more robust inspection program for fish will find the imported variety to be as...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
Before the day session opened this morning, USDA announced a sale of 190,000 MT of soybeans to unknown for 2015/16. Although it is not necessarily due to c...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
According to Rusagrotrans, 1.52 MMT of grain will be shipped from Russian seaports during November, a drop from the 1.7 MMT previously forecast and less th...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
With Argentina's presidential election now concluded, farmers may increase their corn planting intentions even further. Argentine corn seems to be the chea...
Corn Belt Analysis
Grain contracts basically transitioned into horizontal trading patterns prior to the release of the November WASDE on expectation of a larger harvest. Such...
Food Safety Illusions
The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) announced a new effort to reduce foodborne illnesses by collecting a larger number of food samples in an effort...
Paris Climate Conference and Agriculture
The end goal of the conference is to forge a new international agreement on climate change that would keep global warming below 2 degrees centigrade by the...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Oilseed Highlights
There have been several rumors floating around in Argentina that President-elect Mauricio Macri would suspend the collection of export taxes on soybeans fo...
Slow Boat to China; Consumers Flunk
China made several broad commitments to the U.S. at the recent bilateral meeting of the Joint Commission on Commerce and Trade. However, USDA Secretary Vil...
U.S. Soybean Supply/Demand Update
USDA raised its national average soybean yield for 2015/16 to 48.3 bushels/acre and estimated U.S. soybean production to 3.981 billion bushels, both new re...
Market Commentary
Turkey’s downing of a Russian fighter jet has added another element to the complex Syrian-Middle Eastern conflict with possible ramifications for commodity...
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
Egypt is the world’s second-largest producer of tilapia, producing 1.3 MMT today with expectations that the total will reach 2 MMT by 2020. This grow...
New Direction in Argentina
The weekend election in Argentina yielded the results that most people involved in agriculture wanted, and there seems little doubt that the current export...
Mercantilism; Macri; Doha
The big three (the U.S., EU and Japan) are opposing a continuation of the Doha round on the basis that the negotiations have gone nowhere for 14 years. Mea...
Updating the Outlook for the RFS and an Interest Rate Hike
With the 30 November deadline looming for the U.S. EPA's decision on required volume obligations and the Fed's upcoming December meeting where an interest...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Mercantilism; Macri; Doha
The big three (the U.S., EU and Japan) are opposing a continuation of the Doha round on the basis that the negotiations have gone nowhere for 14 years. Mea...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
With farmers in Bulgaria and Romania selling part of their wheat stocks, Bulgarian 11.5 protein milling wheat is trading at a slight discount to the Ukrain...
Market Commentary
Markets started steady to lower overnight and were decidedly lower by the time the night session closed. The election of the pro-business/agriculture candi...
China In-Country Analysis
Last week's soymeal inventories in China surged to a 12.8 percent gain over the previous week. After remaining well below 2014 figures for months, they wer...
More Things to Keep You Up at Night
U.S. farmland values quadrupled over the last decade as record-high prices, good crop production and a generous crop insurance program created a big demand...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Argentine Election
Argentina could be a wildcard on the corn export market, provided that crop gets sown, if the leading presidential candidate wins and fulfills his promises...
Radioactive Europeans; China
For years, Europe has considered America’s food to be of poor quality or even dangerous. While its politicians helped characterize it all as radioactive, r...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
The government of India (GOI) has finally taken steps to help cane growers and the sugar industry at large. However, some trade experts argue that the plan...
Market Commentary
Grain and oilseed markets finished the week without a whimper. Trading ranges were relatively small, and volume was light. Meanwhile, U.S. corn export pric...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Caution to the Wind
Given farmers' current financial concerns, the bet by Farmland Partners, a real estate investment trust that continues to expand its portfolio of farmland...
The Acreage Game
Analysts with a longer-term view of the markets are starting to put together budget worksheets for 2016 crops. The winter farm meeting season is about to e...
Oilseed Highlights
While today’s USDA export sales report showed exporters had good success selling U.S. soy last week, it also indicates that sales and exports of soymeal to...
First GM Animal Approved for Human Consumption
Just to add a level of intrigue and excitement to the GMO labeling debate, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) today has approved the first GM anim...
Market Commentary
The story in today’s markets was there was some fund short covering as a result of one of the best weekly USDA export sales reports of this marketing year...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentina's old crop wheat is already sold, and there has been no movement in the past few months. In terms of the new crop, Brazilian millers are saying t...
Market Commentary
Corn futures resisted the downdraft in wheat and soybean futures, trading slightly lower much of the day. However, markets did stage a minor recovery in th...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Prices on the Russian grain market changed insignificantly 9-13 November 2015, while average wheat prices were steady. However, prices expressed in USD dec...
COOL Strategy; WOTUS
A WTO arbitration panel is expected to rule on 7 December regarding the amount of retaliation that Canada and Mexico can impose on the U.S. as a result of...
Federal Reserve Minutes Released Tomorrow
Tomorrow the Federal Reserve will release the minutes of its Federal Open Market Committee (FMOC) meeting of 27-28 October. These are expected to be a prol...
Market Commentary
The corn futures market may not have been a tower of strength today, but the December contract did close up 2 cents and within a half-cent of the day’s hig...
U.S. Corn Supply/Demand Estimates
Combined with the carry in stocks and modest imports, the total amount of U.S. corn supplies for 2015/16 is nearly as much as last year and the second-larg...
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
Egypt is reported to be making great effort to induce local wheat farmers to use high-yielding, quality seed stock produced by the government’s Centr...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Oilseed Highlights
Argentina may have lost biodiesel exports to African countries, but it clearly has been able to boost those to the U.S. as the volume has substantially inc...
Green Complaints; China GMOs; South Africa
Environmentalists complain that the TPP rolls back requirements by some multilateral environmental agreements (MEAs) and want stronger provisions on climat...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
G-20; Nairobi; U.S.-China
The WTO Ministerial next month in Nairobi may be seeing a policy breakthrough, or not. Brazil and the EU have teamed up to try and break the logjam on the...
China In-Country Analysis
China Customs data indicates soybean imports during October totaled 5.53 MMT, 6.3 percent higher than the previous forecast of 5.2 MMT announced in Septemb...
Market Commentary
The world was anxious about how all markets would respond to the attacks in Paris, but the action was actually relatively calm. Grain and oilseed markets w...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
EU wheat has to find more export demand urgently, which means that French, German and Baltic stocks must become more competitive against those of Rus...
A Look at World Supplies
There is no denying that global stocks have been building over the last two marketing years. However, today’s record-large supplies are only half of the st...
Crop Insurance Budget Battle Continues
Last week, Senators Jeff Flake (R-Arizona) and Jean Shaheen (D-New Hampshire) introduced legislation that called for the budget agreement's 8.9 percent cap...
Ethanol in Presidential Campaign Beyond Iowa
Both sides of the ethanol debate are hitting the airwaves trying to influence the outcome of the EPA’s decision regarding a proposed reduction in the...
Market Commentary
The weekly USDA export sales report (delayed a day because of the holiday Wednesday) showed better than expected soybean sales with wheat and corn sales in...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
The Indian poultry sector needs to gear up and add value to the chicken it produces if it wants to survive the current crisis of high input costs and low o...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices.Please note: Due to the Veterans Day holiday on Wednesday, 11 November 2015, updated CFTC Commitment of Trade...
Farmers Look for Cash
The current market situation begs the question: How will farmers generate cash while they wait in hope for a price rally?Prices are low (depending on your...
Values; Cotton Bust; Dead Goose
The challenge to Europe and the U.S. in the TTIP negotiations is not how to handle tariffs, but how to manage value-based differences involving roughly two...
China’s G-20; Derivatives; Processed
For centuries, the solution to prevent food spoilage and loss has involved processes such as thermal, chemical, atmospheric, etc. Now consumers are demandi...
WASDE: Red Meat Down, Poultry Up
The USDA’s monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report was released on Tuesday of this week and shows offsetting changes in the r...
Oilseed Highlights
There is no question the Chinese government wants to reduce the country’s huge corn stocks and to cut the costs of its corn subsidy program; If China...
Where is the Market Headed Now?
At this point it is hard to see grain and soy markets staging a major rally barring a South American weather problem. Unless adverse weather intervenes in...
Market Commentary
It has become hard to find things to comment about regarding grain and soy futures markets these days. There has been no news except for the November WADSE...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices.Please note: due to the Veterans Day Holiday on 11 November, 2015, USDA will release the updated Export Sales...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Warm weather and rains in some regions of Ukraine during the first week of November produced favorable effects on winter crop development in a number of re...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentine wheat production has been gradually dropping every year over the past decade due to the government’s intervention in the wheat market. By limitin...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy futures prices fell yesterday after USDA’s bearish production and supply/demand estimates. Several new contract lows were set. General Commen...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy futures prices fell yesterday after USDA’s bearish production and supply/demand estimates. Several new contract lows were set. General Commen...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Modernity; Politics; Policy
Some on the political right in the U.S. have joined their ideological opposites on the left by taking decidedly “anti-American” positions on trade policy...
Corn Belt Analysis: Anticipating Market Data and Resulting Price Action
The present seems to be the time that end-users are being offered a favorable purchasing opportunity by a larger than expected U.S. crop, fund selling, and...
Market Commentary
Today’s WASDE let some air out of grain and soy markets, at least in the short term, with December Corn trading through the low end of its recent trading r...
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
South Africa is expected to have to import about 800,000 MT of maize this crop year to cover a drought-induced shortage. These are the first significant ma...
The November 2015 WASDE
We cannot call the November WASDE a major surprise because the direction of most major changes was well anticipated, if not their scope; today’s futures ma...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Oilseed Highlights
It is amazing that in what many believed to be a very challenging crop year the U.S. national average soybean yield was a record high. USDA Reports I...
National Security and Ag: Land, Water, Allies and Biotech
In a recent House Committee on Agriculture hearing covering National Security and Agriculture, key witness Ambassador John Negroponte touched upon som...
GIs/Biologics; Rabidity
Greenpeace's latest report on biotechnology may be welcomed by those already inclined against biotech but it will be scoffed at by those already using it...
Not Many Surprises Expected in Tomorrow’s USDA Reports
Most analysts don’t expect many surprises in tomorrow’s USDA November reports; in fact, if you just go by the “average” of the trade guesses there is littl...
Market Commentary
Corn struggled with the weakness in wheat today and amid expectations that USDA might increase corn ending supplies in tomorrow’s reports; corn export insp...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
The weather in Bulgaria and Romania is generally favorable for winter wheat development, as well as for harvesting the remaining 10 percent of the corn cro...
Blend Wall Battle Over Ethanol
There is currently little incentive – other than the RFS mandate – to blend more ethanol if the price increases or the price of gasoline decreases in the c...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
China In-Country Analysis
Some analysts are projecting that Chinese soybean meal inventories will trend upward as feed mills take a wait-and-see approach and soybean imports into th...
House Passes Highway Bill – With Some Surprises
The first surprise involved reauthorization of the Export-Import Bank, but there were also several others related to the highway bill's funding.Two big vic...
Thoughts from a Conference in Europe
There was an excellent panelist discussion that included a person in the coffee industry, one in the cocoa/chocolate industry, a finance officer for a majo...
TPP and China; AGOA Integrity
The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement is being sold as a bulwark against China and its supposed lopsided way of doing business. However, that count...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Before the rabi planting season begins, the government of India (GOI) has announced the Minimum Support Prices (MSP) for the crops that are grown such as w...
Market Commentary
Soybean futures stabilized today after yesterday’s significant break. There is a threat of a trucker’s strike in Brazil next week, which might have slowed...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Wheat Market Realities
From any fundamental viewpoint, the current supply/demand outlook for U.S. wheat is quite bearish. The most important reason why, in our opinion, is the po...
Market Commentary
Given the lack of anything else to trade on, grain and soy futures markets were mostly about weekly export sales numbers. Those numbers were disappointing,...
Ag Review: The Trade Issue
Reasons to give TPP the Bronze Bronze is very durable, but it is an alloy rather than a pure metal like gold or silver. The TPP is a bronze standard agreem...
TPP Text Released
The text of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement was released to commodity groups today along with a slew of promotion materials from USDA and the...
Oilseed Highlights
The final U.S. soy export data for 2014/15 was released yesterday, which indicated a notable increase from the previous marketing year. However, the change...
TPP; Food Demand; Turnips
France’s National Association of Food Industries (ANIA) has reportedly asked the public's opinion about what they want from food processors and retailers...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Biofuel Storm
Historically, it has been the petroleum industry griping about ethanol, but now some supporters of advanced biofuels contend that the conventional part of...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Because of the lack of rains, the condition of Russia’s winter crops worsened. Thus, the volume in weak condition grew to 25 percent compared with 16 perce...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Cash basis could rebound in South American soybean markets if threatening weather develops and that stimulates world end users to purchase beyond the spot...
Market Commentary
The overnight futures session produced slightly lower prices for wheat and corn but slightly higher prices for soybeans. The grains were under pressure fro...
Searching for a Price Driver
The futures market’s choppy price action within relatively narrow price bands for the last several weeks is a sign that it is searching for price direction...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
U.S. wheat futures seemingly trade in a world of their own. Yesterday Chicago wheat lost 14 cents or so, and today it regained 8 cents or more. Why did tho...
Oilseed Highlights
Brazil's ABIOVE today raised its forecast for the country's 2016 soybean crop from 97.8 MMT to 98.6 MMT. That is less than the forecasts of USDA and the Br...
10-Year Review of RFS
The House Science Space and Technology Committee’s Oversight and Environment subcommittees today held a hearing to review the cost and benefits of the Rene...
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
Turkey reports that this year’s wheat production will be a record 23 MMT, but imports will continue. This is because quite a bit of the crop is of lo...
Aussie Future; TPP; Ex-Im; WOTUS
The Australian government has produced a paper that details a plan for ensuring the success of that nation’s farmers in the years to come. It stresses the...
Senate Proposals to Block WOTUS
The U.S. Senate now has two proposals with different approaches that would stop the rule promulgated by the U.S. EPA and the Army Corps of Engineers known...
Nitrates: Deception all Around
The “Physicians Committee for Responsible Medicine” (PCRM) filed a petition with USDA that calls for an end to the distribution of processed meats through...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
The EU's 2015/16 wheat ending stocks could reach a record 20 MMT compared with 2014/15's 13.5 MMT. The balance sheet suggests that the EU should use...
China In-Country Analysis
The national and state government policies of subsidizing deep corn processors that purchase domestic stocks helped drive up the utilization rates of that...
Market Commentary
Technically speaking, there is nothing in the chart patterns of soybeans, soyoil or soymeal that would stop a limited selloff from occurring. The best thin...
U.S. Corn and Wheat Export Sales Pace in Trouble
U.S. corn exports deviation from historic patterns has implications for what exports will be in the rest of the marketing year. Analysis of unshipped corn...
Fed Rates; India Needs; Migratory Influences
Government officials at this week’s ninth ministerial level meeting of the India – U.S. Trade Policy Forum agreed to continue talking, but independent Indi...
Market Commentary
Wheat futures were firm again today and are once more pushing toward the top end of the recent range in Chicago December futures. That contract tested $5.0...
Crop Insurance Spared Budget Cuts
Largely through the bipartisan efforts of the House and Senate Ag Committees' leadership, crop insurance cuts in the two-year budget agreement will be spar...
More Things to Keep You Up at Night
It was an interesting week in the markets for several reasons that ranged from U.S. harvest-related developments to a policy change abroad and an une...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
India's spot corn price has stabilized over the past few days in most markets, but today's average price was still lower than on 1 October. Meanwhile...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
China and Soybeans
Part of China’s October buying burst can be attributed to compensating for the slow pace of its new crop 2015/16 soybeans purchases during prior months. No...
Oilseed Highlights
Brazil’s government has approved the sale and use of higher biodiesel blends in order to address air pollution problems in big cities as well as concerns o...
Data; Litters; Children; Enemies
China’s relaxation of its one-child policy has some speculating about future food demand impacts. However, there are several mitigating factors. Data Smorg...
Market Commentary
Overnight price action for grain and soy futures contracts was mixed with most trading both sides in a modest way. Volume was not impressive. The day sessi...
Canada and COOL
Canadian pork producers are setting an agenda and expectations for the new Liberal Party government to be convened by Justin Trudeau, and trade is the key...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
It is entirely possible that Argentina's peso could decline 25 percent from the current official exchange rate by the end of 2015. If so, that countr...
Market Commentary
Grain, soybean and soymeal prices weakened in moderate overnight trading, and that carried over to the day session. In the absence of fresh inputs to direc...
Rice; Insurance Bellyache
Japan agreed to a side letter with the U.S. under the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) that defines the way in which it will manage a tariff-rate quota (tra...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Deputy Minister of Agriculture Sergey Levin noted in a speech today that the ministry may reconsider the size of the wheat export duty or cancel it...
Budget Showdown over Crop Insurance
Last night the White House and congressional leadership came to terms on a budget agreement regarding a continuing resolution (CR) through the end of FY 20...
Oilseed Highlights
The Indonesian government's director general of food crops indicates that imposition of a 10 percent tariff on soybeans is being considered as a way to enc...
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
Iran is intending to export about 400,000 MT of domestic wheat as local supplies are sufficient to meet demand. The government’s stockpile is reporte...
Market Commentary
As it is Tuesday, grain and soy futures markets moved in opposite directions from Monday’s price action. Grain prices weakened, while soybeans gained back...
A Few Comments as October Winds Down
We are not sure that history will single out October 2015 as being particularly notable, but it has been a very interesting month from the perspective of a...
Indonesia; Antibiotics; Ex-Im; WOTUS
Supporters have managed to outmaneuver opponents and get reauthorization of the Export-Import Bank back on track in the U.S. Congress. Indonesian Dr...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
Markets started this week on a more interesting and volatile note, led by wheat (of all things). Last Friday’s Commitment of Traders (COT) report showed th...
China In-Country Analysis
Although the estimated average utilization rate of the major soybean processors is trending upward, China’s soymeal inventories continue to fall as feed de...
The Market Can’t Buy Enough Corn and Soybeans
There have been a number of factors that will contribute to a slightly better bottom line than expected, regardless of the fact that futures markets haven’...
Less than Good Science
The World Health Organization’s International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) strikes again, this time concluding that processed meat is carcinogenic...
Add Puerto Rico to the List of Crises Congress Must Address
Congress has a number of critical issues that it must address by the end of this year. Add to that the pressing problems in Puerto Rico, which is facing sh...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
The spread between feed wheat and corn in the EU has narrowed significantly during the last few days, mainly due to the sharp rally of the USD versus the e...
Oilseed Highlights
Officials at the Brazilian port of Paranagua indicate 460,000 MT of soybeans were exported from there in September, up from only 136,000 MT during the same...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
Today was the last trading day for options on the November soybean contract. It staged a mini-rally in the last minutes of trade and made a run at $9.00 be...
China Causing California Drought?
Most would argue that a drought is the result of little or no rainfall, not exports of agricultural products to China or anywhere else on earth.CNBC carrie...
Argentine Election
All the candidates agree that the fixed exchange rate must change eventually. Likewise, there is at least implicit recognition that the strongest sector of...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Fear of imports and the inability to sell the stocks purchased by Food Corporation of India (FCI) led GOI to announce another 10 percent increase in the wh...
R&D Scuttled; GMO Foibles
The least developed countries (LDCs) are demanding an indefinite (read permanent) exemption from having to honor any intellectual property rights to pharma...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Food Critics and Thomas Malthus
There are a number of individuals finding a variety of things to criticize about the way food is produced, distributed and consumed. There is also another...
Barriers to Global Dairy Trade
The U.S. dairy industry has substantially increased its exports since 2000. Moreover, global dairy demand is growing. Yet, dairy remains one of the commodi...
Market Commentary
This week’s grain and soy futures price rally continued during the overnight session in a somewhat muted fashion and with much lower trading volume than th...
Policy Potpourri
U.S. Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack says he plans to create a commission on farmland ownership in 2016. He classified the issue of who owns farmland as...
Corn Belt Regional Analysis
There is a general expectation that any potential production shortfalls in the eastern Corn Belt this season will be more than compensated by the western s...
Market Commentary
Today’s market action gave further signs that the seasonal price rally is underway. In the last two days, the November soybean contract has gained 14.25 ce...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Competition has intensified for South American soybean exports as the recent 20-cent collapse in basis at the U.S. Gulf has brought U.S. production back in...
Ryan’s TTIP; Bloviators; GMO Label; Unbalanced
Whether he ascends to the speakership of the U.S. House or remains chair of its Ways and Means Committee, Congressman Paul Ryan (R-Wisconsin) will be a pow...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russia has been increasing its soybean production over the past several years because of high demand from domestic animal and poultry feed producers. Accor...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Canadian Election Results
The centrist Liberal Party maintained its momentum and swept to power with 184 seats, 14 more than needed to gain an outright majority government. There ar...
The EU’s Wheat Problems
While the EU was able to mostly deal with its huge wheat supplies in 2014/15 through large increases in feed use and exports, it will have greater difficul...
Trudeau and TPP; TTIP’s Achilles Heel
The tariffs being negotiated in Miami this week on transatlantic trade are the easy part. The likelihood of removing regulatory barriers via the Transatlan...
Market Commentary
There are often days when prices for the grains and soybeans all move in the same direction, but we cannot recall one when closing price changes were as co...
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
The Egyptian pound was devalued by 1.2 percent last week as the country's importers still face difficulties making their payments in U.S. currency. Most ma...
Oilseed Highlights
An assessment completed for several European agricultural organizations indicates costs to the EU feed and livestock industries would increase by up to 2.8...
China In-Country Analysis
The Chinese producers' soymeal price averaged RMB 2,837/MT ($447.20/MT) last week. That reflected a RMB 40/MT ($6.30/MT) increase from a week ago as the es...
Market Commentary
The soy complex seemed to have had some positive news to start the week, but that couldn’t translate into any gains for soybeans, meal or oil. A great chan...
Weather and Wheat
Wheat prices are now back to the level that the world’s buyers should seriously consider adding to their volume of inventories and long-term coverage. Howe...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
U.S. EPA to Review Ethanol GHG Emissions
This is occurring as a number of anti-ethanol groups have again raised the issue of GHG emissions. One of the most strident is the Environmental Working Gr...
Subsidies; Burning Surpluses; Outnumbered; Consumers
This week the U.S. House Agriculture Committee will hold a hearing excoriating the agricultural subsidies issued by foreign governments for the harm they c...
Market Commentary
Markets were soft again in the Thursday evening session and started lower today. They were expecting some pre-weekend hedge selling, although farmers conti...
Election Day in Canada
Monday, 19 October is election day in Canada. In 2011, Harper’s Conservative Party (a.k.a. the Tories) won a majority in the House of Commons with just und...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Minor Crop Yields Also Big
Corn, wheat and soybeans are certainly the major crops that receive all of the market’s attention, but the so-called minor crops also enjoyed a banner year...
Fair Play Turnabout; Healthy Unpalatable
No trade agreement is perfect, including the new “Bronze Standard” Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) accord. Now Democrats and Republicans are highlighting j...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Pulses are becoming more of a luxury food item than a stable protein in India as both demand and prices continue to rise. Similarly, poultry and dair...
Market Commentary
Trading volume was in decline by the time the day session opened except for soybeans, which were maintained by commercial support until about mid-session...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Oilseed Highlights
ADM announced yesterday that it plans to add capacity at its rapeseed crushing plant in Straubing, Germany to process non-GM soybeans predominately sourced...
Selective Organic; New Old Trade Policy
The EU Parliament’s agriculture committee rejected a regulatory reform proposal by the EU executive that would have made the organic food sector live up to...
Futures Market Memories
Except for a few options contracts, virtually all trading of CME futures is now conducted electronically via computers. However, It seems to us that open o...
South African Poultry Deadline
. In July, South Africa agreed to an annual antidumping duty-free quota of 65,000 MT for broiler meat that also allows for future growth. Today is the dead...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
South American soybean producers have already exported a good volume, and the likely additional increase from Brazil and Argentina is expected to reduce de...
TPP’s Bronze Standard
Geopolitical analysts argue that the U.S. rushed to conclude a deal, any deal, because the Trans-Pacific Partnership's (TPP’s) real objective is to be a co...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Ukraine's domestic prices for milling wheat and feed wheat were more or less stable (in UAH expression) 5-9 October despite the growth in their respe...
Market Commentary
Without the leadership of the soy complex, wheat and corn futures prices struggled to stay near yesterday’s closes before finally closing lower. Wheat gave...
TPP Politics; Data as Food; Marketing
The European Court of Justice’s ruling against the safe harbor agreement on data transfers across the Atlantic is being hailed by European nationalists. Ma...
What Comes Next?
A number of situations could erupt in unpredictable, serious ways that could interfere with world grain and soy trade flows and have significant effect on...
Market Commentary
Price action in the overnight session was mixed with soybeans trading a few cents higher, wheat just above unchanged and corn slightly lower. Those results...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Presidential Hopefuls and TPP
It should be noted that the reported eight-chapter text of the agreement has not been publicly released yet, so a reasonable, pragmatic politician can be e...
Oilseed Highlights
The slowdown in China's economy is clearly having a significant impact on 2015/16 global soybean demand as growth in its soybean imports is expected to be...
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
Saudi Arabia's grain imports for 2015/16 are expected to rise by about 1 MMT to 17.4 MMT. This includes 8.5 MMT of barley, 3.6 MMT of corn, 3.8 MMT of whea...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
The market in Bulgaria and Romania is slightly more active due to the price rally of Russian and Ukrainian wheat. Romania sold a cargo to Egypt’s GASC, and...
More Things to Keep You Up at Night
U.S. farmers will not be the only producers looking for ways to hold their financial statements together as it is becoming a worldwide problem. Everyone el...
Market Commentary
The November soybean contract was up as much as 8-9 early in the day with a high of $8.94½. $8.97-9.00 is still technical resistance, and the market hasn’t...
Wrong Suspects; Horrible Trade Rhetoric
Three years of successive large agricultural crops coupled with slower economic growth and lower subsidies from Brussels have farmers in Europe complaining...
China In-Country Analysis
Based on conversations with traders this past week, the average landed prices in China for U.S. DDGS have been RMB 1,400-1,450/MT ($221.20-229.10/MT). They...
House Votes to End Crude Oil Ban
Heretofore, the one primary argument has been that exports of crude oil would increase the domestic price of oil. However, export advocates argue (and the...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
There have been mixed reactions in India regarding the finalization of the 12-nation Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement. While it is still to be rat...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
House Leadership Chaos
The problem now for the Republicans is that it appears possible that no one single candidate can unite their conference and be elected speaker with at leas...
Market Commentary
Today's USDA numbers were generally slightly bearish as ending supplies for wheat, corn and soybeans all came in above the range of pre-report estimates. A...
Neutral USDA Reports
It is now highly unlikely we will see any major changes to the U.S. corn and soybean production estimates in future reports. The early and rapid pace of th...
Excessive Speculation (Again)
While it is agreed that derivative markets need speculators to provide enough trading volume and market liquidity so that those with certain vested interes...
Ag Review: The Volatility Issue
Loss Avoidance, Volatility and Food Security Volatility is the market seeking supply and demand balance, but the market lacks trust when it comes to balanc...
Oilseed Highlights
USDA is now releasing details of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement and has confirmed that Japan agreed to eliminate its tariffs on soyoil in si...
DGAC Drops Anti-Meat Sustainability Language
The controversy over inserting sustainability considerations into the five-year update of the federal Dietary Guidelines for Americans may have just come t...
Market Commentary
Prices sagged throughout the day session due as much or more to an absence of buying interest as to aggressive selling. Funds were on the sell side across...
Trade and Food Policy
WTO Director General Roberto Azevêdo congratulated the 12 countries completing agreement on the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) even though he may wish tha...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
TTIP Trouble; Hari-Kari; Cuba; Diet
The conclusion of a transpacific trade agreement has prompted some members of the European Parliament to anxiously call for expediting completion of the tr...
Market Commentary
With upward momentum from yesterday’s strong performance still in play, grain and soy prices were firmer again during the overnight session. Prices across...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
South American soybean exporters are expressing some concern about potentially limiting supplies for the February-March period due to possible delays in pl...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
As Ukraine's Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food prepares to sign a Memorandum of Understanding that will establish the volumes of grain allowed for expor...
Sliding Toward the October WASDE
USDA’s October WASDE with fresh U.S. corn and soybean production estimates compiled in the midst of the harvest is always fun. This year’s edition, which i...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
It is reported in the local trade that Egypt’s GASC may change the minimum protein level on its wheat tenders from the current requirement of 12 perc...
Market Commentary
Several factors have helped support this week’s higher grain and soy prices, but it will be whatever tone is set by this Friday’s WASDE that will determine...
Oilseed Highlights
While a majority of EU member countries have opted out of allowing their farmers to produce biotech crops approved for production within the union, Romania...
Budget Numbers Still May Add Up to Government Shutdown
The long-term CR is likely to be based on the budget resolution, and the cuts to mandatory spending are likely to be in any such legislation that appears i...
Commodities Need Demand
There are doubts that continued pump priming by central banks will yield the level of stimulative effect that is needed and desired. Someone needs to produ...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
OilseedsThe sunflower seed harvest is about 85 percent completed in Romania and Bulgaria, and the price has rallied approximately $50 during the past three...
China In-Country Analysis
Following the RMB 240/MT decrease in the last week of September, the average domestic corn prices in both northern and southern China have been steadily fa...
Farmers and Futures Markets
The one thing that seems to be clear is that farmers simply aren’t selling very much of this year’s production off the combine. This reluctance to sell als...
Dairy Production Up on Fat Demand and Lower Feed Costs
In addition to stronger demand, dairy producers are enjoying good margins. This is despite milk prices being down from previous years and exports starting...
Market Commentary
World financial markets were very strong to start this week, and that strength spilled over into energy and agricultural commodity markets. Expectations we...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
TPP Analyzed; Soft Power; Proximity; Worms
Trade ministers highlighted the precedent this accord sets for future agreements as well as for the Pacific region. Unmentioned but more important at this...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
The sunflower seed harvest is about 85 percent completed in Romania and Bulgaria, and the price has rallied approximately $50 during the past three weeks...
Russia; Food Aid; Meat; Trade; TPP and RFS
While Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov is trying to reduce the financial burdens on the state, including privatizing assets, the agriculture ministr...
Low Prices Will Mean Lower World Production
U.S. farmers are starting to face the ugly reality that $3.50-4.00 corn, $8.50-9.00 soybeans and $5.00 wheat simply don’t work, even with big yields. Like...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
India’s food industry is facing a period of uncertainty, especially as the FSSAI is unable to decide if it should set standards for products or ingredients...
Industry Seeking Approval for Continued PHO Use
In June 2015, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) declared that partially hydrogenated oils (PHOs) are not generally recognized as safe (GRAS). How...
Market Commentary
The sharply lower opening in the financial markets spilled instantly over into the agricultural markets. However, they all started to firm as U.S. financia...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
India’s food industry is facing a period of uncertainty, especially as the FSSAI is unable to decide if it should set standards for products or ingredients...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Price Reporting Bill on President’s Desk
The House of Representatives passed the mandatory livestock price reporting reauthorization this week. The Senate had already approved the bill, which cont...
Oilseed Highlights
As the volume of India's vegoil imports has continued to rise in recent years with palm oil the most in demand, another oil accounts for a substantial shar...
Shortages; TPP Tradeoffs; Worry
The results from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) ministerial in Atlanta will become clear shortly, but the trade-offs are at hand. Sense not Crop Short...
Dragging Exports
It is safe to say that the soft global economy and currency gyrations will have some impact on world demand. However, predicting exactly how that happens a...
Market Commentary
Today’s grain and soy futures trade appeared to be mostly a continuation of the market’s reaction to yesterday’s stocks and small grains reports. Wheat's g...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Futures; Differentiation; GMO Ban; Frivolous
Despite greater European suspicion of sophisticated financial instruments, Brussels needs tools to help farmers manage risk that go beyond the limits of su...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
An interesting study released by AACREA this past week seems to conclude that it will be difficult for Argentine farmers to financially break even th...
Market Commentary
Today’s lower-than-expected grain and soybean stocks may temper the bears’ enthusiasm. By the same token, however, bulls will have great difficulty using t...
When All the Money Goes to Debt
There are some parallels to be drawn between the predicament that debt-laden commodity businesses find themselves in and our personal households. Although...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
The Russian Ministry of Agriculture lowered its 2015 grain production forecast from 100-103 MMT to 100-101 MMT. The export volume is estimated at 30 MMT. R...
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
Iran has cancelled both the wheat and barley import duties that had been added this past July. It is still expected to import about 4 MMT of wheat in 2015/...
House GOP Leadership Update
The number of positions potentially changing hands depends on which of those posts open up after the shuffling among current leadership members settles. T...
Oilseed Highlights
Last Thursday's announcement regarding China's agreement to purchase 13.18 MMT of U.S. soybeans was well received by the market. More recent reports, thoug...
1 September Stocks Report
Tomorrow's release of USDA's quarterly stocks estimates will provide some fresh fodder for the grain and soy markets, which are eager for news even in the...
Food Tribes; PRC Corn; Aussie Canola
Beijing could have easily foreseen the error in its farm policy had it just looked at the European and American experiences with guaranteeing high prices t...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
Corn futures contracts traded quietly in a range of less than 5 cents before closing mostly higher by 2 cents or less. This seems to suggest that traders t...
Market Commentary
Grain and oilseed markets started the Sunday evening session steady to higher, but that pattern changed this morning when the soy complex started to lose g...
Ethanol Market Value and Blending Economics
So far in September, ethanol has been more expensive than reformulated blendstock for oxygenated blending (RBOB) – i.e., the unleaded gasoline. This skews...
Japan; China; Regulation; Trade
At last week's bilateral meeting with the U.S., Chinese President Xi Jinping said agriculture is a field where both countries would "expand mutually b...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Milling WheatThe Black Market market is firmer due to slower farmer selling. Russian wheat is about $5 higher than the season's lows of two weeks ago. Mark...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
The milling wheat market in Romania and Bulgaria is unchanged. Producers prefer to sell sunseeds and corn from the ongoing harvest in order to cover their...
China In-Country Analysis
Strong demand from the feed industry last week had a notable impact on China's estimated soymeal inventories, reversing a trend from the past three weeks t...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
A Lot on the Plate This Week
Weakness in EU and U.S. financial markets, led in part by talk that Glencore might be in big trouble and looking for a partner in its agricultural commodit...
Market Commentary
Markets were firm overnight and opened higher this morning. Brazil's real also finally rallied sharply higher, which impacted the market's view of U.S. soy...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
The government of India (GOI) has raised the import duty on vegetable oils in order to help domestic farmers obtain a slightly better value for their oilse...
Transgenic Cheese; Organic Control; Hyper; Leverage
Antoine Branca of L'Universite Paris-Sud has revealed that France's Roquefort cheese, a source of national pride, gets its blue veins because the gene...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
More Things to Keep You Up at Night
This strong El Nino is offering some hope that winter will finally bring rain to severely drought-stricken central and northern California. However, that t...
Speaker Boehner to Retire from Congress Halfway Through Term
The move comes in response to growing antipathy from the conservative faction of the House Republican caucus, which demanded a new vote, plebiscite style,...
Show and Tell
Today just as Pope Francis leaves Washington, DC, Chinese President XI Jinping arrives for meetings with President Obama. One of the main purposes of his t...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Suffering; Unscientific; Trade; VW’d
The new U.S. Dietary Guidelines released earlier this year were roundly criticized by the agriculture sector and have now been attacked by more disinterest...
Cattle Prices; Bullish Butter; Broiler Outlook
USDA's Cattle on Feed report revealed an unexpected number of feeder cattle placements in August. Retail beef demand is also being impacted by changes in p...
Oilseed Highlights
Reports out of Brazil indicate farmers' sales of new crop soybeans this year far exceed those of a year ago because of their perceptions regarding the U.S...
Market Commentary
Wheat and corn futures fell today with perhaps the most pertinent reason being that they were higher yesterday. It may be that the current state of the mar...
Trade Flows; ICS Panned
Trade officials in Brussels and Washington signaled the go-ahead to resume negotiations on a Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) agreemen...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Ukraine exported 29,100 MT of flour during August 2015, a 60 percent increase compared with the same month a year ago, while the total volume for July and...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Brazil's exchange rate weakened this past week, and that could encourage an expansion in the country's soybean production to 100 MMT compared with last sea...
Market Commentary
On the cusp of the U.S. corn and soybean harvests, grain and soy futures markets continue to move rather aimlessly in the absence of anything to drive pric...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy futures closed lower, giving back most or all of yesterday's gains. Soybeans led the way down as the market responded to perceptions of a hug...
Thoughts for a Dull Tuesday in September
One sign of the current state of grain and soy markets is the lack of attention being paid to the next batch of reports from USDA/NASS that are to be relea...
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
The latest USDA/GAIN report on Algerian grains is estimating a rise in local wheat production from 1.9 MMT in 2014/15 to 2.7 MMT in 2015/16. However, this...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Oilseed Highlights
While current depressed soybean prices may cause many farmers to once again store a sizable share of their soybeans after harvest in hope of better p...
TPP Endgame; Meat Tactics; SDGs; Energy
The United Nations is expected to adopt 17 "Sustainable Development Goals" (SDGs) at next week's 70th Session of the General Assembly. Included is the goal...
Senate Passes Three-in-One Reauthorization Bill
The Senate last night passed three agricultural-related reauthorization bills under one title, the Agricultural Reauthorization Act. Included were the U.S...
What China is Saying Makes Economic Sense
Chinese Premier Li Keqiang spoke at a seminar of senior government officials last week, urging state-owned firms to innovate, improve efficiency, focus on...
Market Commentary
Markets were steady to a bit lower for most of the Sunday evening session. They then started a rally with this morning's opening that was sustained through...
Weather Wins; Federalism
For historical reasons, delineating federalism - the role and powers of states versus the national government in the U.S. - can be confusing, and there are...
China In-Country Analysis
The state's new temporary purchase and reserve polices for corn were released last week, which together with another factor should drive up Chinese process...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
The market in Bulgaria and Romania remains quiet as farmers refuse to sell wheat at current market levels that are about $20/MT below their target. M...
The Pervasive Bearish Attitude
The world is still super bearish regarding nearly everything related to commodities with many now creating more reasons why prices will never go back up. T...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Comments from Argentina
With a presidential election looming next month, Argentine farmers are facing difficult decisions in light of the current economic situation as well as a p...
Market Commentary
There was heavy selling pressure across the soy complex today. Much of that was based on the assumption that there will be some hedge selling ahead of the...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
The ongoing rise in the cost of inputs, especially for corn and soymeal, is especially impacting India's poultry and starch sectors, which are both current...
GMO Reorder; Miscellaneous; Media Mutters
An Australian court has issued a decision regarding an organic farmer's charge against a neighboring GMO producer's cultivation practices. GMO Reorde...
Senate Ag Committee Dealing with Nutrition Controversy AGAIN
The Healthy, Hunger-Free Kids Act (HHKA) expires 30 September 2015. While another extension is a distinct possibility, more controversy is a given. During...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Some Thoughts about U.S. Agriculture
There is still plenty of antipathy toward big agriculture on the part of self-styed watchdogs for consumers and producers of foodstuffs, but that sector no...
Market Commentary
Soybeans futures were comparatively strong today with prices trading back and forth around unchanged before light commercial hedge pressure took prices low...
Cattle Swine Outlook
USDA will release the monthly Cattle on Feed report tomorrow. Industry expectations are for a number that confirms the lower marketings in August with the...
FSA Acreage Data Clouds Supply/Demand Outlook
Today's FAS data showing large prevented planting for all three crops adds more confusion than clarity to the issue of how much acreage was actually plante...
Oilseed Highlights
While an announcement is expected next week regarding additional purchases of U.S. soybeans by China, the unknown factor is when the stocks will actually b...
Glyphosate; Trade Policy; GMO Labeling
In Geneva, the U.S. proposed a standstill commitment on agricultural market price supports and input subsidies as a small package deliverable at the upcomi...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
There was a 20-cent decline in Argentine corn premiums during the past week as they moved down from the high 40s to the high 20s. This price drop is an eff...
RFS Clouds; Food Abuses
The real flaw in the Clean Air Act's Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) is mandating particular volumes of fuel use each year rather than specifying a shar...
Market Commentary
Current chart patterns could encourage technical traders to test the wheat, corn and soy contracts for additional price weakness during the remainder of th...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
A Russian Grain Union official has indicated that the country's grain exports in September may reach 4.7 MMT, a record amount for that month, with the MY 2...
Market Commentary
Today's price action in grain futures contracts implied that the upward momentum of late is temporarily out of steam. Meanwhile, even though palm oil price...
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
The Egyptian government announced that the new bread allocation program has cut subsidy costs by 6 billion Egyptian pounds ($470 million). The supply minis...
Ethanol Back in Washington Spotlight
Ethanol is once again a hotly debated issue in Washington as the sector awaits the EPA's final 2014, 2015 and 2016 Required Volume Obligations (RVOs). Sinc...
Mission Creep; Begetting; Economic Policy
Rich countries see few success stories from specific development assistance initiatives, while many developing nations view foreign aid as often ill-prescr...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Oilseed Highlights
The EU has decided to extend its anti-dumping duties on U.S. biodiesel through 2020. In response, the National Biodiesel Board (NBB) condemned this move an...
Price Analysis and Trade Ideas
The means to successfully trade in a repetitive manner is dependent upon the ability to correctly anticipate market actions as well as having a predefined...
China In-Country Analysis
Following China's annual Victory Day celebration on 3 September, downstream demand from the feed sector increased. That caused the country's estimated soym...
Market Commentary
Markets opened with some strength Sunday evening. That faded near this morning's close, but today's markets opened firm again with soybeans and wheat leadi...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Assuming the latest EU soft wheat crop forecasts are correct and also a 2 MMT increase in domestic feed wheat consumption, a minimum of 30 MMT will need to...
Who Cares What the Fed Does?
This Thursday is when that the Federal Reserve's Board of Governors meets next to determine whether or not it will raise interest rates. However, market fu...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
A Different El Nino Worry?
There are reports now emerging from some weather experts about how the real effect from this year's record El Nino might not occur until the summer of 2016...
Subsidies; Bee Sting; Poison; Holocaust
One does not usually get to see two federal agencies in a public dispute, but U.S. EPA's proposed restriction on 76 pesticide ingredients around pollinator...
Fizzle FSMA; El Nino Guessing
The U.S. Food & Drug Administration issued new rules under the Food Safety Modernization Act (FSMA) that mandate food and feed processors implement pat...
Market Commentary
The markets were very quiet overnight and this morning until they turned weak an hour ahead of the 12 p.m. (EDT) USDA report release. This was the same pat...
USDA Reports Offer Mixed Results
The USDA reports contained something for nearly everyone. While there were some other reports this week of smaller-than-expected corn harvest yields, it wi...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
The government of India (GOI) is taking certain steps to help the domestic sugar industry with its surplus supply. Production continues to far exceed local...
Appropriations Outlook
For the first time since 2009 (FY 2010), Congress actually passed a budget resolution this year. It sets the broad outline of authorized mandatory and appr...
Oilseed Highlights
Reports out of Argentina indicate farmers there are having a real problem securing financing to put in their next crop, and their failure to honor the roya...
Market Commentary
It was evident that the level of commitment increased today as corn contracts showed their strongest resolve to move higher during the past four days of up...
Red Meat Exports Down
A CoBank report this week predicted a two-year erosion in meat prices due to a decline in exports stemming from a stronger U.S. dollar and increased U.S. p...
Trading Dynamics
Timing is of extreme importance when trading as commodity markets are filled with emotional participants and a great deal of money. Even accomplished hedge...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Labeling; Efficiency; TPP
The Hungarian government once destroyed GM crops and has claimed a desire to be the first EU country to completely ban their cultivation under the new auth...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Ukrainian Agrarian Policy and Food Minister Oleksiy Pavlenko announced the grain harvest forecast on 7 September 2015, which he noted will be 255 percent o...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
At the moment, present global prices in the soy complex do not offer favorable margins for Brazilian and Argentine market participants. This basically mean...
Market Commentary
Today was the third day of corn contracts slowly working higher in narrow daily trading ranges as positions are adjusted, and the December contract still d...
Oilseed Highlights
Soybean and corn prices already have fallen to unprofitable levels for nearly all farmers. The almost certain big crops this year in the U.S. and the likel...
WTO Leadership; GMO Trends
In a twist on the old saying that you can offer someone a great opportunity but can't force them to accept it, WTO members continue their decade-plus recor...
Natural Gas Low and Slow Going into Fall
We are going into the fall this year with historically low natural gas prices, and the current bear market situation is being driven by one large factor.Th...
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
The Turkish lira has reached a record low against the U.S. dollar after falling 22 percent so far in 2015, and that is pushing up prices for imported grain...
Price Influences and Opportunities
The current period of low global grain prices presents a temporary opportunity for end users to be proactive, primarily because this is a time is when grow...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
The nearby contracts for soybeans, meal, and soyoil all appear poised to challenge their respective 10-day moving averages. The charts for each look as tho...
Divide; Losing Ugly; Smiling
The divide between urbanites and the agriculture community apparently goes beyond language and experience and directly to differing sources for research. U...
Market Commentary
Grain and oilseed futures were relatively quiet in low volume trade ahead of the weekend. Funds were light sellers of corn and soybeans and light buyers of...
Ethanol Exports Growing
While the EU anti-dumping and countervailing duties against the U.S. are in place for two-and-half more years, global oil prices have crashed and the U.S...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
India's rapeseed and mustard seed prices are now rising in tandem with demand due to the non-availability of other oilseeds, while mustard seed oil is also...
Brazil’s Farmers Struggling
Recent conversations with an associate farming and living in Brazil underscored a number of concerns that will eventually have a negative impact on crop pr...
Market Commentary
Overnight trade was lackluster, both in terms of volume and price action. Wheat and corn prices edged lower, while soybeans firmed slightly. Similar trends...
Broiler Chicks for Mexico
There was a notable gain in broiler pullet chick placements for future domestic hatchery supply flocks during July 2015, which indicates an ample supply of...
Oilseed Highlights
Environmental and wildlife groups have long been critical of palm oil as the cause of the widespread destruction of forests in Indonesia and Malaysia. Whil...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
The Short Term and the Long Term
Macro issues are currently driving prices as much or more than micro fundamentals such as supply and demand. Commodity markets have been bearish in the rec...
Green; White; TPP Stimulant
U.S. agriculture has been scoring some wins in the environmental arena of late, and there is hope regarding another pending ruling. Green Wars U.S. agricul...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Prices grew everywhere on the Russian market with active buying and selling at the week's beginning, but business then practically came to a halt by its en...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Traders may wish to note that the recent drop in CBOT prices is not attracting any additional selling of South American soybeans from the coming 2015/16 ca...
Market Commentary
The overnight session found corn and wheat trading both sides of yesterday's closes, while soybeans were mostly firmer. That is the way the day session ope...
Rationing; Abysmal; Land
The Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS) joins the club of foodies asserting that abundance and affordability are somehow evil concepts, which implies that...
Consumer Reports Bashes Grain-Fed Beef
The Consumer Reports study was conducted by its Food Safety and Sustainability Center. It tested 300 samples from 458 pounds of ground beef from various pr...
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
Egypt has decided to allow 13.5 percent moisture in wheat tender offers for a period of twelve months at the request of France, which has had difficulty me...
Market Commentary
Any negative economic news about China sends shivers throughout markets around the world, and its PMI falling to a three-year low was no exception. General...