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China In-Country Analysis

Since early March 2015, the average soymeal price has been on a constant downward slide. We expect this trend to continue, as demand from downstream users...

Trade Victory for U.S. Chickens in South Africa

U.S. chicken products have been blocked from South Africa since 2000 – the same year that the United States passed the African Growth and Opportunity Act (...

China In-Country Analysis

Since early March 2015, the average soymeal price has been on a constant downward slide. We expect this trend to continue, as demand from downstream users...

TPA Angst; WOTUS Lobbying; Unscientific Scientist

Reversing Friday's defeat of Trade Adjustment Assistance (TAA) by legislators will require more than just a few days of lobbying and a change in the legisl...

Market Commentary

Corn struggled under the pressure from the wheat market plus thoughts that the corn crop ratings might improve in today’s weekly report. The trade seems un...

Low Prices and Large Old Crop Supplies Causing Farmer Angst

Farmers now face a predicament they haven’t faced since the bull market started nearly 10 years ago: they are carrying large old crop supplies and have sol...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

Since the Russian government lifted the export tax on wheat approximately one month ago, there has been no real pressure on old crop prices. Instead, old c...

TPA’s Chance; Regressive West; Private Standards

President Obama  will get another chance at House passage of the Trade Adjustment Assistance (TAA) bill, but it will require successful maneuvering of...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

WOTUS Rule Backlash

Yesterday the American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF) issued a fact-check document rebutting the agency's "Fact Sheet" on the final rule, which also provide...

Market Commentary

It was a reverse crush day in the soy complex with soybean futures slightly lower most of the morning and meal and oil futures a bit higher. That pattern c...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

With exports at a standstill and with only domestic buyers, sugar prices in India have crashed and are likely to remain so in 2015/16 as oversupply has had...

Trade Promotion

The eventual growth and dominance of domestic producers within nations is generally the reason that governments are eventually incentivized to build up pro...

Market Commentary

The soy complex picked up speed in downward momentum today, and wheat contracts also had sizable selloffs. The decline in corn slowed, however, presumably...

Control of Production, Consumption; WOTUS; COOL

With nearly a billion people, many knowing hunger firsthand, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has asked a new economic think tank called Niti Aayog to p...

COOL Repeal

The U.S. House of Representatives passed a bill last night to repeal the country-of-origin labeling (COOL) requirements for beef, pork and poultry. The nex...

Oilseed Highlights

In January, the U.S. EPA approved the importation of Argentine soy-based biodiesel under a streamlined procedure, and now Argentina's shipping agency Nabsa...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Market Commentary

USDA did not  anticipate any change in the average corn farm price because of a minor adjustment in this season's ending stocks, detailed in the June...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

The Russian Ministry of Agriculture announced that 29.065 MMT of grain were exported as of 3 June 2015 and from the beginning of MY 2014/15, a 17.7 percent...

GMO Opt-Out Trouble; TPA Vote; Precaution Fix

There has been plenty of analysis detailing how neither Washington nor Brussels has a monopoly on the imposition of precaution in product risk assessments...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

El Nino’s Influence and 2015/16 Grain Prices

The current El Nino will affect more than just U.S. grain and oilseed production, and those other developments can influence world market perspectives, whi...

Oilseed Highlights

A combination of declining global prices for soybeans and soymeal together with China's corn price supports has resulted in soymeal and corn now trading in...

Market Commentary

Indecision was the uniform message conveyed today by the charts of corn, wheat and soy complex futures contracts. The wheat market is also a promising bull...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

There have been comments in Egypt that lower-priced, imported wheat is being sold to the government as domestic stock because of its high purchase price. G...

Busy Day For Ag Issues: CFTC, MPR, Grain Standards

Several ag-related bills have been brought to the House floor under a suspension of the rules, which is a parliamentary procedure to expedite the considera...

Trade Opponent Thinking; Leadership; Bleach

G7 leaders meeting in Germany this week boldly pledged to end hunger for 500 million people by 2030. Given the fact that the number of malnourished has bee...

Market Commentary

The soybean market had another fairly volatile session today. There is still some concern about soybean planting progress because of the wet weather across...

China In-Country Analysis

The imported corn reserve auction sales are currently expected to reach only 10 MMT through September. Because of the large national corn inventory, this w...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

The EU has now allocated 777,000 MT of the available 950,000 MT duty-free import licenses for Ukrainian wheat. Once the duty-free quota has been completed,...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

USDA Report Preview

USDA will revise winter wheat yields and, perhaps, harvested acres.Some downward adjustments in the world wheat crop are also possible with a great deal of...

Cynicism; Precaution; Fantasy Agriculture

As happens often, government may have the best of intentions but uses a tin ear when gauging public interest and action. Farmer Eat Farmer World As happen...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

The market yard corn price in Bihar has been declining after the recent harvest there. Demand has also been low from the poultry sector as a result of the...

More Things to Keep You Up at Night

Despite shuttle rail freight values that are now $200-400 per car UNDER tariff through September, there is no demand. Farmers are unhappy with both old cro...

Much Ado – CFTC; Grexit versus Brexit; Ag-Gag Gag

The Greeks appear to have lost any semblance of sympathy from key European countries negotiating its rescue out of bankruptcy. Meanwhile, Swedish business...

House Ag Committee Looks at Global Farm Subsidies

The scope of agricultural subsidies is large and comes in many forms. According to the OECD, the estimated support to farmers was about $492 billion global...

Market Commentary

Markets surged to big gains in corn, wheat and soybeans in the first two hours of today's trade but couldn't hold above technical resistance, and the selli...

Ag Review: Agriculture's Bear Market

Unsustainable Bears At least seven factors in the modern era prevent agriculture from falling to the historic construct of a long-term bear market followin...

Pork Producers and Meat Institute React to White House Statement

The head of the NPCC expressed disappointment with a recent administration statement regarding federal and White House procurement of hormone- and antibiot...

ExIm versus MAP; Natural Booze

The Export Import Bank of the U.S. (ExIm) is set to expire at the end of the month, which has spawned a brawl between Boeing and U.S.-based airlines over t...

Oilseed Highlights

Following China's approval of the Syngenta corn event last December, U.S. DDGS imports to that country have resumed steadily. However, some in the trade fe...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Strange Views on Trade

In the past, the goal of increasing trade, especially agricultural trade, enjoyed nearly unanimous bipartisan support. Thus, the current debate raging over...

Market Commentary

It is hard to put a finger on what sponsored the stronger grain and soy markets. The rally was not widespread across other commodity markets. Last week's e...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Ukroliyaprom, the Ukrainian oil industry association, has forecast the country's MY 2015/16 oilseed harvest at 17.195 MMT, a 6.3 percent increase compared...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

An important point to consider is that the future of Argentine wheat production will be influenced by the ability of soybean and corn exports to put some r...

Market Commentary

The U.S. dollar's up-and-down indecisiveness was mirrored by grain and soy futures as well as other commodity markets. All of the grain and soy complex con...

Trade Offensive; Climate Democracy; Poor Ag

Most of the public discussion about TPA and pending trade negotiations has focused on negative issues. However, the USTR is trying to create a more balance...

More Complete Analysis

A news report cites a survey of 4,200 U.S. consumers by a group called CivicScience that found far more concern about preservatives and chemicals in food t...

New Feed Rule Part of White House Summit on Antibiotics

Today's White House Forum on Antibiotic Stewardship included the president signing a memorandum directing federal departments and agencies to create a five...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Market Commentary

U.S. grain and soy futures markets, particularly Chicago wheat futures, are as sensitive to changing U.S. dollar values as other commodity markets and more...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

The barter arrangements between Russia and Iran are said to have been finalized to some degree as it is reported that the latter will export poultry meat i...

Oilseed Highlights

The government of Brazil today proposed raising the agriculture sector budget by 20 percent. Considering that it is cutting expenditures elsewhere, this wa...

A “What If” Scenario for U.S. Corn

Even though USDA has estimated that 2015/16 ending corn stocks will be lower than what is predicted for 2014/15, not much imagination is required to envisi...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

Russia announced a new wheat export tax that begins 1 July, which is related to the USD/ruble exchange rate and is intended to help the government with a s...

Market Commentary

Corn couldn't follow wheat higher or soybeans lower today and traded near unchanged until a last minute rally pushed the market 1-2 cents higher, which mig...

TPA – and the Ayes Have It

The effort by organized labor against TPA is unprecedented, and the inclination is to bet against the bill passing except that it has such horrible implica...

Weather Pushes Wheat and Canola

While weather made a return visit to the wheat market this morning, very preliminary estimates indicate that another weekend frost/freeze across southern M...

China In-Country Analysis

The combined effects of sluggish demand from downstream users and the large surplus of corn forced Chinese processors to take significant price hits last w...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Blender Pump Brouhaha

As U.S. EPA issued its proposed Required Volume Obligations (RVOs) under the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) last Friday, USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack also rel...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Heat wave conditions are prevailing across India, strongly impacting poultry farmers as well as dairy operations. There are also implications for crops wit...

U.S. EPA Announces Biofuel Targets for 2014, 2015 and 2016

Today's announcement met the EPA's committment under its proposed consent decree, which was intended to settle the lawsuit filed by two major petroleum tra...

Market Commentary

The EPA data released today was just as bearish as market participants were expecting for corn and more bullish than expected for soyoil. General Comments...

TPA Schedule

The House Republican leadership indicated that Trade Promotion Authority (TPA) could be brought to the floor for consideration in June, but there was not a...

What More Could A Buyer Want?

With low ocean freight rates, growing demand and strong supplies (among other factors), it would be difficult to find better market conditions than current...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Pseudoscience

While the U.S. agencies responsible have worked well enough to make foods in the country consistently the safest in the world, there are food critics who d...

Market Commentary

Soybean and soymeal prices had been buoyed recently by the Argentine strike situation that had shut down crush plants and snarled export loadings. Today's...

Antibiotic Use Still a Hot Topic

The Oregon State Senate is considering a bill that would ban routine use of antibiotics but allow for their usage to treat sick cattle, hogs and birds. Mea...

Oilseed Highlights

Argentina's government yesterday raised the export tax on biodiesel by 164 percent, applicable to exports made in April. The head of the Argentine Biofuels...

Antibiotic Use Still a Hot Topic

The Oregon State Senate is considering a bill that would ban routine use of antibiotics but allow for their usage to treat sick cattle, hogs and birds.Mean...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Dumbing Down; Best Tweets

The Nebraska legislature is receiving a great deal of attention this week for ending capital punishment in the state, but it also decided against passing a...

WOTUS; Farm Washing; Africa

The regulated view the final Waters of the U.S. (WOTUS) rule with at least suspicion, and the National Farmers Union, which supported the earlier draf...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Argentina's financial instability has led to inflation, which is generating labor disputes that in turn are having a serious impact on the entire supply ch...

Market Commentary

Although grain and soy futures prices are very low, in some cases at or near multi-month or multi-year lows, the technical profile across the entire market...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

With domestic usage accounting for just a small percentage of its annual sunflower meal production, Ukraine may soon have a new market if it meets the expo...

Market Commentary

The surging U.S. dollar steamrolled over just about everything else that might have affected grain and soy futures prices today and put the blocks to nearl...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Exploitation; Helplessness

U.S. and Japanese trade negotiators reportedly met three times during Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) talks in Guam on the issue of access for American ric...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

The Egyptian government  reported that it has purchased a record volume of local wheat that is said to be well above its target at a price much higher...

Oilseed Highlights

The union representing workers at Argentine oilseed processing plants in Rosario plans to continue its current strike that has shut down soybean processing...

Demand is the Thing

Prospects for demand should not be ignored. When it comes to supply/demand analyses for grains and soybeans, it is the yardstick by which we judge the adeq...

COOL Repeal Unlikely to Pass Senate

While the repeal of COOL is expected to pass the House handily, the Senate scenario is not so bullish for the statute's opponents as there is still a stron...

Market Commentary

Corn lost ground with losses in wheat and soybeans. Some analysts expect the first weekly corn crop ratings of this season to reach record highs. We doubt...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

India is presently the world's top milk producer at 140 MMT, but its production efficiency is one of the lowest. With a goal of doubling output by 2027 to...

Crop Insurance Program’s Conservation Compliance Due in Two Weeks

Conservation compliance was a controversial provision in the 2014 Farm Bill and was originally proposed to cover only program crops. When specialty crops w...

Perfect

World weather has been very cooperative over the past two years, resulting in record world crop production, increasing supplies and lower prices. We starte...

Silly; Hypocritical; Stupid; Chauvinistic

The U.S. wheat industry wrote a letter this week to Canadian officials that turned that government's successful arguments against America's country-of-orig...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Oilseed Highlights

Over the last few years, the canola sector in the provinces of the Canadian Prairies has been beset with excess rainfall that has interfered with spring pl...

COOL: Reform or Repeal

Yesterday the House Agriculture Committee approved a bill to repeal COOL, which will now move to the House floor where it is expected to pass. However, the...

Opponents Rolled; Confused and Frightening

While the U.S. Senate has capped debate on the TPA legislation, there is still negotiation over the amendments that will be allowed to be offered. How...

Market Commentary

A number of factors prompted funds to cover more of their short wheat position. That encouraged some buying in corn as well, which was further  suppor...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Global Food Security

Food security and how to achieve it is a complex issue that has been debated throughout recorded history. The question now being discussed is how to provid...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

While Russia's wheat exports plummeted from 1 February-13 May 2015 compared with the same period in 2014, its MInistry of Agriculture announced that a new...

Curious Votes on Trade; Reading Food Data

Over the past 13 years, relatively few Democrats in the U.S. House of Representatives have voted in favor of international trade, while Republicans have av...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

The South American soybean market is seeing reduced Chinese demand for July. One reason is that a sharp drop in the Dalian futures this week eroded crush m...

Market Commentary

Overnight trading activity was active for soybeans but rather light for the grains. Drifting is a good word to describe Wednesday's day session, and that i...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Market Commentary

Grain and soy futures opened the overnight session with prices mixed before they turned lower. Fund short covering in wheat abated, and markets were pressu...

House Ag Committee to Take Up COOL Repeal

House Agriculture Committee Chairman Michael Conaway (R-Texas) today introduced a bill to effectively repeal country-of-origin labeling (COOL) requirements...

U.S. Wheat’s Downhill Slope

The ability of EU and/or Black Sea origins to price the value of wheat in world trade makes U.S. prices much less relevant to global wheat markets than the...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Oilseed Highlights

USDA economists have warned that this year's presidential election in Argentina could trigger a sharp decline in soybean prices if it results in that count...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

Saudi Arabia's wheat imports are projected to rise by about 10 percent in 2015/16 as local production is decreasing and will  be phased out by 2016. I...

Ongoing TPA Battle

The success or failure of Trade Promotion Authority (TPA) in the U.S. Congress becomes more nuanced as senators try and add amendments that may or may not...

EPA Browning; Miscellany; Different

Congressional critics have complained that rather than being captive of corporate interests, the U.S. EPA is instead under the control of green nongovernme...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

Although the Russian government has officially announced that the export tax is effectively lifted, the new crop (July/August) prices for Russian wheat are...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Restaurant Sales Surpass Grocery Sales

The monthly data shows that there has been a dramatic shift toward restaurant spending in the last 10 months, and there are two major contributing factors...

China In-Country Analysis

Vice Agriculture Minister Zhang Zhaolin has indicated that pollution in agriculture is becoming a serious issue, and he is not optimistic about China's env...

Media Now Discussing Poor Ag Outlook

After nearly a decade of generally excellent crops coupled with high prices that brought the best economic times in history to U.S. agriculture, the immedi...

Market Commentary

Weather across the U.S. and Canada provided most of the impetus for today's strong rally in wheat. Corn tried to follow wheat higher, while soybeans had a...

Global Oil Production Growing

While bearish prices had an impact on U.S. oil, OPEC was not affected and, in fact, may have been spurred onward. Other surprises in the bear market were f...

Trade Debate; Manipulation; Food Security; View

Former DPJ Minister for Agriculture Masahiko Yamada is suing the Japanese government over its Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) negotiations, arguing it thre...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

A growing population, the affordability of vegetable oil and its increased usage in Indian households have all contributed to rising oil demand. Domestic s...

Market Commentary

Those traders who rely primarily on charts for decision-making generally realize that week-ending prices can influence recommendations via key indicators...

Not Much Bearish News Left

Funds are still short a record amount of wheat futures. Without much other bad news left to throw at the wheat market, a few positive stories have apparent...

Market Commentary

Those traders who rely primarily on charts for decision-making generally realize that week-ending prices can influence recommendations via key indicators...

Hucksters; Ruses; Bipartisanship

Recognizing that the National Organic Standards Board (NOAB) has become dominated by marketing decisions, the National Farmers Union has made a request to...

COOL Decision by Monday

The WTO has set a deadline of 18 May for its final decision on the U.S. appeal regarding country-of-origin labeling (COOL). If the appeal is rejected, the...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Oilseed Highlights

The U.S. has long been the world's largest soybean-producing country, but South America now appears to have supplanted it.as the global residual supplier...

Parsing Supply and Demand

It is often said that supply/demand analysis for grains and oilseeds is far more art than science. Of course, the farther into the future the forecasts of...

Market Commentary

Today's markets were all about wheat, and the corn market was towed higher by its mega-rally. However, the strength of the grains did not transfer very wel...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

With sufficient stocks available and a strengthening national currency, Ukraine's feed grain prices have decreased both domestically as well as on a few ex...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Market Commentary

Following yesterday's WASDE release, optimistic viewpoints allowed grain and soy markets to make a modest recovery today. Soybean and corn prices were up,...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Soybeans would seem poised for an imminent selloff, but Argentina's farmers are being motivated to retain their large harvest by the futures market there t...

Organic Speech; Fast Track and Jobs

The U.S. organic foods industry formally petitioned USDA this week to initiate a research and promotion program for organic, but its goals may be different...

The May 2015 WASDE

We are not sure that each year's May issue is always the most important of the springtime WASDE reports. However, they are still always very interesting an...

Oilseed Highlights

USDA's May 2015 supply and distribution report was released today, which includes the first estimates for MY 2015/16. Many changes are likely over the next...

Market Commentary

Today's markets were all about the May WASDE released today by USDA. Corn futures traded both sides in about an 8-cent range before closing with just fract...

Reigning in the Fed

While monetary policy and the Federal Reserve itself are on the radar screen of policy makers who follow financial issues, the entire subject is still some...

TPA Vote Meaning; Transatlantic Differences

It was all politics around the Trade Promotion Authority (TPA) bill on Capitol Hill today as a cloture vote to end debate on it fell short, bringing differ...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

With domestic food price inflation approaching close to 10 percent, Egypt is using $6 billion received from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the UAE to make more&n...

Market Commentary

Several factors combined to pressure corn again today. Wheat lumbered along in step with the corn market, while its weekly export inspections were in line...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

The EU allocated 273,000 MT of wheat export licenses last week, bringing the total to 28 MMT. Carryout stocks wil be significantly different this year, whi...

China In-Country Analysis

China's state corn purchase program for temporary reserves was estimated at around 83.4 MMT as of 30 April, a significant change from last year. Meanwhile,...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

USDA 2015/16 Estimates Start Tomorrow

About the only thing certain about tomorrow's numbers is that we believe USDA will use the 31 March planting intentions numbers for acres, while the yield...

Miscellaneous Segments of Note

As the EU is expanding its prohibitive environment for GMOs by seeking to allow individual member states to decline their otherwise safe use and GMO labeli...

Crude Oil Exports and the Future of the U.S. Energy Sector

With the debate over lifting the ban on the export of crude oil becoming more pertinent, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) commissioned a st...

Biofuels Roundup

With gasoline prices quite high in Brazil as a result of government actions, ethanol has become more attractive to motorists there in a country where the a...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Market Commentary

Markets didn't produce much change overnight. Funds are still holding massive (record) short positions in wheat, and they were small buyers to end this wee...

Lag Effect in Biofuel Policy

As usual, policymakers and markets are out of sync with the latest case being renewable fuel mandates and bearish grain markets.As usual, policymakers and...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Although GOI provided an incentive to ethanol manufacturers and an exemption from the 12.36 percent excise duty, the availability of cost-effective molasse...

More Things to Keep You Up at Night

The Kansas crop tour wrapped last night with participants seemingly surprised and disappointed by the results. The trouble today is that few people actuall...

Market Commentary

Grains and the soy complex prices were mixed, but not much changed overnight. They weakened, though, during the day session as the U.S. dollar strengthened...

Red Meat Exports

According to the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF), the muscle cut ratio of March pork exports was the largest percentage since July 2013, while that for...

Oilseed Highlights

Indonesia has taken action to support further development of the biodiesel sector with the goal of expanding domestic production and consumption of biodies...

Ag Review: Water Around The Globe

Water Solution at Hand There are resource constraints on earth, but water is not one of them. Likely Future Conflicts over Water Safe water for human consu...

Some Ideas Never Die

Several current factors may make a merger of the SEC and CFTC seem conceptually more appealing that it used to be. However, there are still great differenc...

Obama Allowing Mandatory GMO Labels

While USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack charged this week that the EU threatens global food security with its proposed opt-out policy regarding GM crop imports, t...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Contrasts; No Worries

The U.S., Australia and New Zealand have been pushing Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) partners to adopt a common position on the geographic indicators (GIs...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

The common expectation at the recent Wheat Congress in Argentina is that market inefficiencies will improve once there is a new government, but producers'...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

The volume of Ukrainian vegetable and animal product exports to the EU during January-March 2015 showed a significant change. Vegetable product exports wer...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Market Commentary

The sharp correction of the U.S. dollar against the value of other major currencies accelerated today. Meanwhile, the corn market was torn between the stro...

COOL: High Costs, Low Return

The 2014 Farm Bill required that USDA's Office of Chief Economist (OCE) provide Congress with an economic analysis of the impact of mandatory country-of-or...

The Merry Month of May

Just how merry the month of May turns out to be for producers and consumers of grains, soybeans and their products depends to some degree on the prices of...

Oilseed Highlights

A union representing workers at 20 percent of Argentina's soybean processors went on strike today demanding higher wages. A major union representing truck...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

The difficulties in Syria have caused a change in regional shipping patterns as grain cargoes, which in the past would have enterd Syria's ports for discha...

Market Commentary

The soy complex was today's market leader, and soyoil futures set the pace. The catalyst has been a major move in the world edible oil market by China. Gen...

Politics of Trade

The politics around congressional consideration of Trade Promotion Authority (TPA) and, subsequently, the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) is becoming quite...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

While buying interest in Russia's wheat is below offer prices, there is talk in the market that the government there could lift the export tax as early as...

The Market Struggles for News

The market's problem continues to be adequate supplies of wheat and feed grains around the world and few worthy weather issues to talk about as the spring...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

House Biofuels Caucus Recruiting Members

Leadership of the bipartisan caucus has sent a letter to other members of Congress asking that they join the group to support renewable energy production t...

Wet Blanket; More Lunacy; Correctives

The U.S. House appears ready to move on legislation to correct a couple of unhelpful issues in the agriculture market. One bill would pre-empt state labeli...

China In-Country Analysis

With the planting margin spread between corn and soybeans steadily widening, Chinese farmers have been less willing to dedicate land to the latter crop. A...

Market Commentary

The market was expecting today's crop progress numbers to show that 50 percent of the U.S. corn acreage has been planted, but the total was higher. Meanwhi...

Market Commentary

Wheat tried to trade higher off and on today, and Chicago July did show gains of 5-6 cents at one point. Meanwhile, the soybean market followed yesterday's...

Newspaper Hypocrisy; WOTUS Wrong

The Washington Post criticized the Chipotle restaurant chain yesterday for pandering to the unfounded fears of consumers seeking to avoid GMOs, so why are...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

In spite of the contentious issues of farmer suicides, their inability to receive full price for their production and the fact that 60 percent of India's p...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Congress Proposes Block of WOTUS Rule

While the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee has passed a bill that would block implementation of the WOTUS rule, a bipartisan group of sena...

Kansas Wheat Tour Next Week

With only one potentially significant crop production problem facing the U.S. earlier this spring, next week's Kansas crop tour might provide some interest...

Legislative Reversal; Economic Blah

The ink was barely dry on a positive spin for Trade Promotion Authority (TPA) surrounding this week's visit to Washington by Japanese Prime Minister Shinzō...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Oilseed Highlights

Many in the market see today's soybean prices as low versus the highs of the last three years. Perhaps many of the new players in futures markets do not re...

Size and Efficiency

The expansion in container ship size, capacity and efficiency is a reflection of free trade and its benefits. However, growth in the size of these vessels...

Market Commentary

Confidence that the Argentine labor situation will quickly be resolved along with weakening world grain prices seemed to trump a surprisingly friendly week...

More Avian Influenza: Congress Urges Emergency Spending

The leadership of the House and Senate Agriculture Committees is urging USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack to transfer funds from the Commodity Credit Corporation...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

The strengthening of the real is encouraging Brazilian soybean producers to market slowly. Meanwhile, Chinese buyers seem primarily interested in purchasin...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

While Russia's grain exports have substanially increased overall in the current marketing year, there have been other contrary changes in the volume of whe...

Japan Darts Past Europe; Tricking the Old

It is no surprise why the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) is about to come to fruition and TTIP looks like mostly many years of meetings and a modest outco...

Market Commentary

Soybean prices were supported by the weaker U.S. dollar and the potential for labor problems in Argentina as farmers, processors and exporters try to handl...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

A Few Idle Thoughts

We are about to enter that annual transition period between the old crop cycle and the new one. Supply/demand tensions have provided a considerable degree...

Budget Conference Report Likely This Week

Both the House and Senate budgets look to boost defense spending, while one of the other outcomes from the budget conference negotiations is related to whe...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

It is being reported in London that the major commodity houses are lining up to do business in Iran.This could be a very  good opportunity to supply g...

Market Commentary

The day session saw wheat futures swinging higher after setting new lows, and soybeans running up 15-16 cents before retreating late to close with only mod...

Oilseed Highlights

If the EU proposal to allow member states to individually opt out of allowing the importation and consumption of biotech crops is adopted, there could be s...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Successful Regular Order; GMO Stunts

While the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee has been one of the most politically contentious with the two parties at wide odds on environmental...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Dust to Dust: The CWB Goes Away Again

Bunge Canada's recent purchase of the Canadian Wheat Board concludes the second chapter in its demise since the Canadian government  attempted to turn...

China In-Country Analysis

China's Ministry of Agriculture unveiled the country's 2015-2024 outlook last week with projections and analysis on supply, demand, exports and imports for...

Ownership in the Digital Age Issue Hits Agriculture

One of the sleeper issues in the U.S. and global economy moving forward is privacy and proprietorship of information. This concern has arisen in various fo...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

With rising prospects for quite a good wheat crop, Russia's export tax should logically be lifted 1 July at the latest. However, that is still uncertain du...

Market Commentary

The soybean market continues to have legs of its own. Meanwhile, funds are short in excess of 500 million bushels of wheat futures, and they added to that...

Losing Scale; Missing; Notables

The opportunity that has been missed in the current trade debate by Republicans and Democrats alike is the reform and boosting of worker retraining. Contra...

Market Commentary

Managed money remains heavily short wheat, corn and soybeans.  Meanwhile, the focus of today's wheat markets was more on planting progress in the week...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

The recent weather patterns in India have affected the rabi corn harvest and the wheat crop. As a result, there are far-reaching implications domestically...

Avian Influenza Situation Update by the Numbers

The strains, which are multiple, mutate readily and are named after the two protein groups in the virus. The rate of outbreak has increased over the past w...

Show Me the Weather

Today's extended weather maps and the pattern that is developing should impact talk of planting delays across the Corn Belt.Today's extended weather maps f...

TTIP Pretense; GMO Humor; Sustainability

Part of this week's ninth round of TTIP negotiations, yesterday's public session in New York, had American activist groups acting like their transatlantic...

Tough Times for Index Funds

After being blamed in the past for artificially pushing grain prices to very high levels, index funds have pretty much slipped away from public attention t...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Oilseed Highlights

Statistics Canada today released the outcome of a planting intentions survey conducted 18-31 March that showed a surprising result regarding Canadian farme...

Market Commentary

Weekly export sales for corn and wheat were slightly better than expected, and this helped trigger something of an early rally for futures prices during da...

Souljah Opportunity; Labor Dissed; Unsweetening

During a markup session before the Senate Finance Committee last night, Senate Democrats chose to help President Obama on trade and only pay lip service to...

Big Test for TPA; Uniquely Ag

The U.S. Supreme Court heard arguments in Horne v. Department of Agriculture (USDA), and the justices learned once again that agriculture is treated unique...

Market Commentary

Corn futures prices traded in less than a 5-cent range before closing fractionally lower. Funds and other noncommercials holding long positions in May corn...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

While the Argentine government has not  released any additional wheat export licenses, it did make an announcement in this election year regarding far...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Both Russia and Ukraine have reported domestic grain stock volumes that have notably changed from a year ago. Meanwhile, the board chairman of Cherkizovo G...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Cuba Ag Trade: Potential and Politics

One of the somewhat surprising issues to gain traction this year in Congress has been the status of Cuba trade and diplomatic relations.One of the somewhat...

Market Commentary

It has been a slow Tuesday for grain and soy futures markets with corn and soy prices unable to hang on to yesterday's gains. Much of the market's chatter...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

Egypt has faced a much stronger outbreak of avian flu this year in small village flocks, which experts attribute to a specific factor. While none have been...

Transatlantic Focus; Dems on Trade

While Europeans are in the U.S. pushing hard for acceptance of geographic indicators (GIs) as part of the TTIP negotiations, one potential reason why the U...

Oilseed Highlights

China's Ministry of Agriculture published a report today that predicts the country's annual soybean imports will rise by 15.8 percent  between now and...

Expressing Market Opinions

Nearly all of us who watch and trade in commodity futures markets eventually develop an opinion about the direction prices will take. These are called futu...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Trade Rhetoric; Backward Food

Now that there is a bill, the two major congressional committees with jurisdiction over trade plan hearings in the next two days on Trade Promotion Authori...

Biodiesel Challenge; Available Land Implications

The Minnesota Trucking Association and others filed a lawsuit in U.S. District court last Friday that alleges that state's mandate to use a 10 percent biod...

China In-Country Analysis

A Chinese trading company was found last week to have illegally imported more than 6,000 MT of frozen meat worth about 345 million yuan ($55.6 million). Th...

House Votes to Repeal Estate Tax

Farm groups are urging the Senate to also address an estate tax repeal, and Senator John Thune (R-South Dakota) has introduced a companion bill to the Hous...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Market Commentary

Short covering continued across the soybean futures today. Most analysts are bearish, based on the forecasts for record world ending supplies. The problem...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

Even though the new crop (July/August) 12.5 percent protein Russian/Ukrainian wheat is offered at $195/MT FOB, a price that is historically attractive at b...

The State of Wheat

Even though it didn't seem like there was much of any weather premium in the market before this week's rainfall, the speculative trade evidently felt there...

Misdirected Aid; Nonreciprocals; Status Quo

The Chicago Council on Global Affairs has issued a report ("Healthy Food for a Healthy World") calling on U.S. policy makers to save the world from starvat...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Market Commentary

Markets did absolutely nothing overnight and started that way this morning. Prices were little changed in corn, wheat and soybeans until just after 10:30 a...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

 Avian flu has again surfaced in India as it erupted in the heart of the poultry belt in Telangana, which supplies eggs to eastern areas of the countr...

Alternative Diesel Tax Credit

On 15 April, the U.S. Senate Finance Committee gathered a number of recommendations for comprehensive tax reform that could potentially be considered this...

Market Commentary

Corn closes were mixed, and soybean prices were higher. The state of play in today's market can be described by noting that not one soybean or corn contrac...

Oilseed Highlights

Argentine farm organizations yesterday asked soy exporters to stop inspecting cargoes for bootleg biotech soybean events. The exporting firms have been doi...

TPA Dissected; Trade Doublespeak; Organic Trash Talk

A bipartisan, bicameral bill authorizing Trade Promotion Authority (TPA), "The Bipartisan Congressional Trade Priorities and Accountability Act of 2015," w...

Attacks on Common Sense

There have been many occasions when reason and common sense have been swept aside by emotion, demagoguery and political expediency. Two current examples wi...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

European Dairy without Quotas

A more than 30-year old system of national quotas for milk production in Europe ended last month and is expected to change the dairy market across the glob...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

As Russia reports a substantial increase in grain exports thus far in MY 2014/15 compared to a year ago, Rusagrotrans has downwardly revised its forecast f...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

The anticipation of Argentina's government distributing additional export licenses for corn and wheat is presently having little to no effect on spot corn...

Burning Witches Redux

American politicians are no more averse to wrongheaded public pressure than their European counterparts – witness the current opposition to Trade Promotion...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Market Commentary

There were quite a number of sometimes contradictory factors for grain and soy market traders to chew on today, including the National Oilseed Processors A...

Abe versus Xi; TPA Hardball; Trans

The EU's precautionary principle has kept Brussels well ahead of Washington in the issuance of restrictions against potentially frightening things. Thus, i...

Market Commentary

Grain and soy futures prices never go in the same direction all of the time. This is the truism that supports the phenomenon known as Turnaround Tuesday –...

Oilseed Highlights

There are now reports the EU will soon propose options to deal with biotech crops. One under consideration would allow EU member countries to decide indivi...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

Pakistani customs officials have confiscated shipments from Ukraine, Russia and Moldova, claiming there are quality issues. The latest seizure was reported...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

When Will the Fed Increase Interest Rates?

The overwhelming consensus is the Fed will raise interest rates, but the open question regards when. Following the Federal Reserve meeting in March, there...

Corn Questions

Some questions still remain to be answered concerning the current 2014/15 corn situation. One of those pertains to the size of Brazil's crop, and another r...

U.S. Soybean Exports Almost Finished

What happened to the "demand destruction" that several years of very high prices were supposed to have wrought on the markets?Today's weekly export inspect...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

USDA to Expand Supplemental Coverage Option

Coverage under SCO is available in 2015 for a few select crops in a few designated counties. Specific requirements must also be met, but there will be chan...

China In-Country Analysis

While the drop in China's live pig and sow inventories clearly has propped up prices, the continued upward trend might actually decelerate due to downstrea...

Market Commentary

There was the smell of rain in the air across the western reaches of the U.S. hard red winter wheat region, and that was enough to bring another major roun...

Not So Simple Solutions

McKinsey & Company ranks high amongst major management consulting companies, but even it appears to struggle with the complexity of the agrifood system...

The California Drought and Agriculture

California is in a major drought situation and now under emergency restrictions declared by Governor Gerry Brown. While these exempt agriculture, which has...

More Things to Keep You Up at Night

The last major USDA reports are behind us until the 30 June acreage and quarterly stocks updates. We're back to weather first and demand second, but there...

RFS; Jurisdiction; Economy

As officials currently in charge of the EU are increasingly looking for ways to devolve power to the member states, including over GMOs, Washington is cons...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

With its oil meals priced high, India has seen the level of exports impacted significantly, and the poultry sector there could benefit by importing supplie...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Market Commentary

Markets were quiet overnight with corn, soybeans and wheat trading both sides in light volume. Wheat popped back today with some decent gains, while soybea...

Renationalization; Biofuel; Small and Unsafe

The pushback from EU member states to the detailed meddling by Brussels into everyday European life has its politicians scrambling to give capitals more au...

The April WASDE

USDA's April estimates of ending 2014/15 stocks, both for the U.S. and the world, probably command the greatest interest for grain traders and analysts.Eac...

Cases of Avian Influenza Discovered in Minnesota and Canada

All of the cases have been detected in the past month with five of those found since last week. The Minnesota farms are in a flyway for migratory birds, pu...

Oilseed Highlights

Thailand's energy minister announced today that the government plans to change the current biodiesel blending requirement on 15 April  in an effort to...

Market Commentary

Grain and soy futures headed lower overnight with soybeans leading the way, and prices stayed lower this morning ahead of the release of USDA's April WASDE...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

The volume of Ukraine's rapeseed oil and meal exports has notably changed for the months July 2014-February 2015 against the same period a year ago as have...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

 Argentine soybean quality is a concern this season as the first deliveries to the ports showed protein below 32.5 percent. This is a potentially seri...

Market Commentary

Amid the swinging U.S. dollar and crude oil, grain and soy prices were a sea of calm. Once again, prices traded a bit higher overnight, although it was not...

Purity; Rapprochement; Spades

Few consumers are aware that organic food in the U.S. is made with synthetics and chemicals as that industry does not support labeling. However,  the...

The April WASDE and Beyond

The main question regarding U.S. corn and soybeans for the balance of the 2014/15 crop year is whether demand will be enough to achieve the levels foreseen...

Oilseed Highlights

In an effort to offset a huge decline in soymeal exports, India may be rebating a larger percent of the FOB export value to exporters. India Increases Soym...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

Syria and Italy are reportedly discussing a trade involving 100,000 MT of Syrian durum wheat for 100,000 MT of soft milling wheat. This type of countertrad...

Ag Review: Screwy Currencies

Currency Valuation and Trade The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and the strong U.S. dollar weigh on commodity trading decisions. The TPP and a Pr...

More on WOTUS Rule

While the U.S. EPA and Army Corps of Engineers claim that jurisdictional water bodies are easily defined, a number of issues remain.Yesterday we wrote abou...

Market Commentary

It is a story that has repeated with some frequency recently. Overnight trading in grains and the soy complex produces a price rally, but the rally effort...

Math; Prejudice; Pivot

According to some analysts, the logical "pivot to Asia" made by the Obama administration is in trouble without the TPP. Math and Trade U.S. Representative...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

U.S. Hard Red Winter Wheat Crop Shrinking

Two elements of our 20 March analysis of the 2015 U.S. wheat outlook, which pegged hard red winter wheat production at 810 million bushels and total wheat...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

The Russian government is considering a possible extension of the wheat export tax beyond 30 June. If the tax is maintained through the 2015/16 campaign, i...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Market Commentary

It was another day that found it tough to explain why we had the major shifts in nearly every market. After opening slightly higher following the long East...

Burning Witches; No Chinese Surprise

The Agricultural Market Information Service (AMIS), set up as political cover for political leaders who failed to take notice of an impending food price sp...

WOTUS Rule to Go to OMB

As proposed, the "Water of the United States" (WOTUS) rule would dramatically expand the amount of wet areas that would become federally controlled. Given...

China In-Country Analysis

Several factors are putting upward pressure on China's average pork prices. President Xi's decree that party officials implement an eight-point guide for o...

There is a New Sheriff in Town

Exercising its new role under Dodd-Frank, the CFTC filed a civil lawsuit yesterday (1 April) in federal court charging Kraft Foods Group LLC and its affili...

Market Commentary

Grain and soy markets saw a dual between poor weekly export sales and growing weather concerns ahead of a three-day weekend. Corn futures prices did bounce...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Antibiotics Back in the Crosshairs

USDA will focus on three specific areas in conjunction with the Obama administration's new National Action Plan for Combating Antibiotic-Resistant Bacteria...

Oilseed Highlights

The  Brazilian government's effort to re-evaluate 14 pesticides for possible bans has been ongoing for seven years and stymied by lawsuits as well as...

Iran; GMO Prejudice; Fantasies (Local and Export)

The EU's already approved policy to allow member states to decide individually whether GM crops could be grown on their territory was viewed as a net posit...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

The National Association of Exporters of Agricultural Products has requested that the Russian government cancel the wheat export duty midway through its ef...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

The export market for Argentine wheat improved this past week with some buyers from Brazil and Chile. Unfortunately, there is somewhat of a logistical prob...

Funding Pipedreams

The Environmental Working Group (EWG) correctly asserts in its new analysis, "Feeding the World – Without GMOs," that it is "possible" to feed the growing...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Market Commentary

We see today's upturn of grain and soy futures prices as acknowledgement that yesterday's stocks and prospective plantings really did little to change the...

Oilseed Highlights

Today's USDA Stocks Report found total U.S. soybean supplies on 1 March did not quite meet the average analyst estimate but showed an impressive change aga...

Trade Policy Fables

Public Citizen is reporting that the Seattle City Council voted unanimously in opposition to Trade Promotion Authority (TPA). These are the elected leaders...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Market Commentary

The market's reputation for producing a volatile reaction to USDA March stocks and plantings report was well-maintained today. General Comments After a lon...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

While Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan have signed a preliminary agreement regarding Nile water,  the major water source for farming in Egypt and Sudan, it i...

Food Manufacturing Sector in the U.S. to Restructure?

The expected activity in the food sector is based on lowered commodity costs and increased economic growth in the U.S. Most financial analysts see an oppor...

USDA’s Acreage and Stocks Reports

Based on pre-report expectations, corn was supposed to be the market's bullish leader, while soybeans were to be further pressured by a large gain in plant...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

China In-Country Analysis

China's sorghum and barley imports continued to grow in February. The comparative price advantages of both with respect to domestic corn coupled with no qu...

Nudges; Judges; and Water

The Obama administration, under the lead of First Lady Michelle Obama, has made a laudable attempt at reducing obesity in the U.S. A new book now concludes...

Market Commentary

Soybeans benefited from the fund short covering in the wheat market. Weekly export inspections were also (again) better than expected, and there was some c...

The Big Show Starts Tomorrow – USDA Acreage & Stocks Reports

The corn and soybean acreage numbers (as always) have attracted the most attention and will be the initial focus of tomorrow's reports. There are a number...

Status of Farm Bill Implementation

At a subcommittee hearing held last week on the farm bill implementation, different agency administrators reported on the current status of program enrollm...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

There are offers of Bulgarian, Romanian, Ukrainian and Russian wheat for April/May shipment at $207-216/MT FOB without close buying interests. There are al...

Market Commentary

The soy complex is where the selling was centered today, while wheat tried to recapture some of yesterday's big losses ahead of the weekend. Meanwhile, the...

Senate Joins House In Passing Budget

The Republican congressional leadership is nearing one of its goals, passage of a joint budget resolution. With a statutory deadline of 15 April,  the...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices.\...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Following the sudden rise in domestic corn prices, India's end users are considering imports. Although direct, duty-free corn importation is permitted, cer...

TPP Stakes; New GHG Risk; Food versus Fuel

Princeton University Research Scholar Tim Searchinger might minimally be called a pain in the backside to the ethanol industry for past statements. He and...

Indecision

With the Tuesday release of USDA's planting intention numbers, the large disparities between the corn quarterly stocks numbers and the trade guesses over t...

Oilseed Highlights

For the second week in a row, USDA's export inspections report indicated containers of soybeans for shipment to North Korea were inspected last week. Howev...

The Renewable Fuel Standard

The Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) was pushed by the Bush administration with wide bipartisan support in 2005 and 2007, but it demonstrates how risky and ev...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

TPA Fight; Productivity

The fight over Trade Promotion Authority (TPA) on Capitol Hill is intensifying and becoming brutish. While both sides in the debate are claiming to have th...

Market Commentary

The ongoing South American harvest and the possible increase in 2015 U.S. soybean acres in next week's report is a heavy load for the soybean market to car...

Animal and Meat Inventories

Several factors indicate that USDA's quarterly Hogs & Pigs Report, scheduled to be released tomorrow, will show a larger swine inventory. How much of a...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Argentina is poised to harvest approximately 23 MMT of corn, and close to 12 MMT of that should be available for export, assuming the government is willing...

Market Commentary

Today's relatively narrow futures trading ranges testify to the lack of fresh trading incentives as well as the market's cautious approach to next week's g...

Institutional; Blindness; Omission

While the House Agriculture Committee was receiving testimony 'mostly' advising government action to avoid retaliation for a WTO-illegal  country-of-o...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

It was reported that Russian wheat exports decreased 34 percent during 1 February-18 March (compared with the same period in 2014) after introduction of th...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Market Commentary

Other than outside factors that were largely ignored, grains and the soy complex had little to trade on today other than weather. Wheat reversed from the l...

Oilseed Highlights

While participants at this week's 9th Asia Grain Transportation Conference are generally in an upbeat mood, there have been several questions regarding the...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

A tremendous amount of interest regarding investments in Egypt's agriculture was generated at a conference held there last week. Two key development agreem...

Speculating About U.S. Crop Acreage

Analytical speculation about the amounts of acreage that will be planted to specific crops began soon after the January reports, and there are numerous fac...

Commodities and the Canadian Election

The Canadian economy has been a winner during the commodities boom of recent years. With recent yearend figures now available, however, that appears to be...

Glyphosate; China Policy; Real Food

For foodies, some processed food with substitute ingredients can be bad and others can be good, depending on whether there is an agreeable social cause tha...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

Although old crop wheat on the Black Sea market is now offered at competitive levels versus French and German origins, demand is very difficult to find. Me...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Hillary on Trade; Apples; CFTC

Given the outright hostility of labor unions and angst by liberals over the impact of free trade on the U.S. economy, Democratic presidential candidates ar...

House Ag Committee to Hold Five Hearings This Week

This week's ambitious hearing lineup adheres to what Chairman Michael Conway (R-Texas) suggested would be the committee's agenda for the year: CFTC reform,...

Market Commentary

Soybeans led today's push higher in the ag commodities with soybean futures gaining as much as 15-16 cents at one point. The buying was the result of anoth...

More Things to Keep You Up at Night

There are several items that have been in the news recently and are worth thinking about before the planting season starts in earnest.This is the last full...

China In-Country Analysis

A number of Chinese crushers have reportedly chosen to suspend operations temporarily for several reasons. Meanwhile, the average crush margin for imported...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

How Much Water Does Avoiding Beef Save?

Arguments and exaggerations regarding water use are the lifeblood of a number of issues facing livestock today from those in animal agriculture to producer...

Politicized Science; Costly Legislation

Rather than change the underlying offending Cargo Preference requirement, the U.S. government is proposing to pay $90 million annually to American-flagged...

Market Commentary

Markets were quiet in overnight trade, but that changed radically when the U.S. dollar collapsed and crude oil surged sharply higher. This brought across-t...

U.S. Wheat Outlook

We won't know what hard red spring wheat and durum acres will total until the 31 March USDA report. Opinions are mixed today with seed dealers continuing t...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Unseasonal precipitation across much of India is impacting many crops, particularly wheat, fruits and vegetables. In turn, that is expected to continue aff...

Plain English; Cockfights; Phobic

Congressional approval of Trade Promotion Authority (TPA) is at risk and the Obama White House is pulling out all of the stops. None of this will change th...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Oilseed Highlights

U.S. cottonseed crushing is forecast to decline in 2014/15 to the lowest level in 15 years. There are several reasons for this drop, and the situation may...

In Defense of Free Trade

The current politics of free trade are so complex that the basic issues involved sometimes get lost.One definition of free trade is that it allows me to fr...

Market Commentary

The grain and soy rally completely stalled out during the day session as the U.S. dollar continued to climb back from yesterday's beating. Soybean futures...

Broiler Exports Face Trifecta of Hurdles

Three main factors are impacting U.S. broiler exports, but chicken will also have to compete domestically with dropping pork prices. However, there are a f...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Ukraine's grain exports via its sea ports had a slight gain last month against the results of February 2014. Turkey's imports of Ukrainian wheat, however,...

Market Commentary

The Fed's apparent reluctance to raise interest rates caused a big slide in the U.S. dollar's value in late trade, although it still is near a 12-year high...

Lower Demand; Self-Sufficiency; TPP Proxy

Major food exporters are counting on growth in middle class incomes in developing countries for increased future demand. However, a recent analysis suggest...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

The Brazilian soybean basis is anticipated to soon decline, and that is a potential concern for Argentine soybean producers as their position is being stea...

Oilseed Highlights

The National Association of Oilseed Processors (NOPA) yesterday announced an impressive February soybean crush volume, while the average soyoil yield was s...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

The volume of Saudi Arabia's wheat imports is notably shifting as its domestic production is affected by a change in land usage. Meanwhile, maize demand is...

Weather and Other Stuff

Weather and production agriculture are inseparable. In the past, the weather market season nominally lasted until about 15 December. With the emergence of...

Senate Budget Committee to Start Markup Tomorrow

Much of the Senate's budget, which will likely be released this evening or tomorrow morning before a 2:30 pm (EDT) markup, will be focused on Medicare, Med...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Both Ways; Not Us; Sort of

The European Commission and members of Parliament continue to debate how to handle the presence of "unauthorized" substances in organic food. It is very di...

Market Commentary

During overnight trade, corn futures prices were unchanged to slightly weaker in slow trade. During the day session, though, fund pressure and technical se...

Weather Market Economy

The concept of a weather market is a well-subscribed orthodoxy in agriculture and a factor in energy markets. First quarter gross domestic product (GDP) da...

Bans and Influences

While 30 countries have imposed bans on the entry of U.S. poultry over the past month due to the outbreak of avian influenza in several states, many have c...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

The current offer of new crop (August 2015) Russian/Ukrainian 12.5 percent protein wheat is approximately $80/MT lower than the 2014 new crop offer at the...

Lonely Days – Lonely Nights

It has been a challenging period for market analysts who must find something to write about when there really isn't much different happening. We tend to fo...

China In-Country Analysis

Based on conversations with our market sources, there are actually two companies involved in the recently reported major soybean smuggling operation in Chi...

Market Commentary

Soybean futures traded both sides of unchanged today but were mostly lower the last half of the session. The bearish news was that truckers in Brazil did n...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

GOI's recently released Economic Survey 2014-15 strongly advocated cutting subsidies and using new technologies to address problems with the distribution s...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Currency Implications; Pesticides Residues

The U.S. dollar continues its surge in relative value, causing concern not just amongst U.S. companies but apparently in Japan as well. Anti-Trade Currency...

Market Commentary

The stronger U.S. dollar, talk that Ukraine was offering corn below U.S. prices and the overall selling mood in all commodities together eventually pushed...

Updated Look at Farm Bill Spending

The dropping prices and the attractiveness of the ARC program under a more bearish market outlook have caused the CBO to update its  cost projections...

More Things to Keep You Up at Night

U.S. farmers must soon make their 2015 crop revenue insurance decision, and it is likely that they will take reduced coverage per acre in reaction to certa...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Risk Management

Identifying risks and their source would seem to be an obvious necessity for any management plan. However, businesses sometimes incur risks that they are n...

HPAI in Arkansas Turkey Flock

USDA's APHIS has confirmed the presence of highly pathogenic H5N2 avian influenza (HPAI) in a commercial turkey flock in Arkansas, located within the Missi...

Trash-Talking; Pre-TPA TPP

USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack has once again invoked producers of GM and non-GM crops to reach a compromise on coexistence. However, producers of GM crops hav...

Oilseed Highlights

Argentina and Brazil, the two main competitors to the U.S. in the soybean sector, have seen their currencies fall in value to the U.S. dollar. If that tren...

Market Commentary

About two hours after the day session opened, Chicago May wheat traded through its 20-day moving average at $5.05, and a volume of fund buy stop orders was...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

A Rusagrotrans official indicated the effective export duty for wheat will significantly influence the structure of Russia's March grain exports with barle...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

It seems that U.S. and Black Sea corn became more attractive to global buyers once Argentine prices increased into the mid-50s for the March-July period. T...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Biofuel Industry Fractures; Kobe Slimed

At least some parts of the U.S. advanced biofuels industry are asking for congressional legislation to change the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS). The reques...

Market Commentary

Overnight trading started out slowly and without price direction. However, a later surge of buy orders in wheat and corn sent prices solidly into the green...

Oilseed Highlights

Conab has dropped its estimates for Brazil's soybean crop and area planted to soybeans. However, the agency raised the domestic crush forecast because of a...

EU Balkanization of GMOs

The release of an extensive review of EU policy on GMOs is scheduled for later next month, and some of the pending proposals for future procedures will cau...

Market Commentary

Overnight trade in grain and soy futures was dominated by the U.S. dollar's climb to new heights, and the March WASDE released at noon (EDT) today did not...

The March WASDE

The March WASDE always provides an interesting update on USDA's views about U.S. and world demand as well as its take on South American soybean and corn pr...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

Egypt's ag ministry is reported to have been considering a plan to tax imported corn by as much as $65/MT. However, pressure from the poultry industry and...

Trade, Payrolls and Productivity

Imports and exports both declined steeply in January, driven by two key temporary factors. Meanwhile, like a plow horse, the progress in the labor market d...

Market Commentary

A stronger wheat market helped corn as did more talk that farmers are looking for ways to reduce corn costs because of low prices. Soybean and meal contrac...

Iowa Ag Summit

The main goal of the Iowa Ag Summit was to pin down GOP presidential candidates on their position regarding renewable fuels and the Renewable Fuel Standard...

Selective Merchandising; Ethanol Dinged

While Robert Kenner's "Merchants of Doubt" is set to be released this Friday, the missed opportunity is to make a documentary about the merchants of small,...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

The EU allocated 505,000 MT of wheat export licenses last week, bringing the total to 21.3 MMT versus 20.8 MMT at the same time in 2014. At the current pac...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Anticipating USDA's March WASDE

Analysts appear to be in general agreement regarding expectations for the March WASDE. The crop production forecasts for Brazil and Argentina might be more...

Market Commentary

Talk that Ukraine was trying to double its corn exports to China in the next year plus the strong U.S. dollar brought more fund selling to corn today. Mean...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Agriculture received its fair share in the Modi government's first full budget with one of the main proposals targeting the creation of a national agricult...

Ag Review: India's Possible Transformation

India's Possible Transformation Long a protectionist, backward country, Prime Minister Narendra Modi is making modest changes that will alter India's agric...

The Silly Season of Weekly Crop Ratings

These rating numbers have become a trading game. The problem is they are simply not reliable indicators of crop yields and were really never intended to be...

Crude Oil and Corn

Globally, the supply of crude oil and petroleum products is on a trend to hit a record-high 2.83 billion barrels by midyear. The question remains as to wha...

End of EU Dairy Quota to Create Beef Bubble

With the EU's longstanding dairy quota  set to expire in April 2015, changes in dairy production as well as herd expansion are expected across a numbe...

Oilseed Highlights

Today's USDA export sales report confirmed the continued seasonal trend in U.S. exports of soybeans, soymeal and soyoil. Meanwhile, Brazil's wildca trucker...

U.S. Wheat and World Demand

Two important factors that have limited U.S. wheat exports in 2014/15 have been large wheat supplies held by competing origins and the effect of the histor...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Market Commentary

It is possible for large traders to influence charts, and chart action has near-term importance. However, the soy complex currently does not have the same...

TPA Reaction; EU Complexity

Reacting to Republican criticism that President Obama was squandering his opportunity to get Trade Promotion Authority (TPA) through the Congress, the Whit...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

There is some tension and uncertainty in the pricing dynamics for Paraguayan grain (corn and wheat) as farmers have refused to accept low flat prices for t...

Doha; Biotech; Energy

 In the Doha round of multilateral trade negotiations, several WTO members are apparently now receptive to dumping the "Swiss-formula" approach to agr...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Ukraine's milling wheat prices rocketed again due to depreciation of the national currency (UAH). Some traders stopped buying as the UAH rate's further dev...

Market Commentary

We are in a period in the crop cycles when markets feel they have pretty well counted up available supplies, and demand becomes the dominant variable.The s...

House Ag Review of SNAP

Many observers believe that this year's budget resolution, the first in five years if it comes to the House and Senate floors, will include reconciliation...

Oilseed Highlights

Argentina has begun requiring monthly reports of silage bag sales to farmers and third party venders in response to a situation that is reducing the amount...

To Label or Not to Label

One issue of great importance to agriculture is the question of whether or not there should a mandate that foods produced from GM materials be labeled as s...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

The USDA report on grain and feed for Israel was issued last week. As expected, it shows that the country is still almost totally dependent on grain import...

Squandering TPA; AGOA Deficit

U.S. Senate Finance Committee Chairman Orrin Hatch (R-Utah) announced that Trade Promotion Authority (TPA) legislation will not be introduced before April...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Market Commentary

Today's markets provided something for everyone, depending on when you looked. The corn market badly needs a story to tell, but it may not get one until th...

Of Strikes and Other Soybean Issues

The political mood of the transportation and port industries might play a bigger role in the soybean supply and demand situation than record crop productio...

China In-Country Analysis

China's soymeal exports have increased noticeably in the past months, according to recent data, and the volume of soybeans that arrived in the country duri...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Non-GMO Label; Green Politics

Currently, there are privately certified non-GMO labels, but there is a lack of transparency and potential bias in their structure. U.S. soybean growers no...

Market Commentary

May soybeans closed right at the 50-day moving average and at or near the day's lows. The next move might be whether or not the funds try to take that out...

Agriculture and White House Push for TPA

House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Paul Ryan (R-Wisconsin) issued a press release on Thursday of last week that noted all the major ag and processor g...

Crop Revenue Update

Some producers are just starting to look at the price calculations and are stunned by the revenue coverage for 2015 crops versus the previous several years...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Appropriations Panel Reviews FSIS Budget Priorities

The FSIS budget has become one of the more delicate political issues in the past few years because of the 2011 Budget Control Act that reestablished the se...

TPA Threatened; Food Threatened

The U.S. government's has announced a decision regarding water distribution this year to farmers in California's hyper-productive Central Valley that shoul...

Market Commentary

Price changes in the soy complex today depended on how the market interpreted any news of the Brazilian truckers' strike. Wheat was inexplicably strong tod...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

India's government revised the kharif corn production (October/November harvest) forecast from 16.07 MMT to 16.47 MMT. However, the trade and industry ther...

Financial Regulation; TAA

While U.S. congressional leaders calculate how to reach agreement on Trade Promotion Authority (TPA), it is clear that melding U.S. and European agricultur...

Corn versus Soybeans

Although it may be an oversimplification, the annual spring planting decisions are widely viewed as a fight between corn and soybeans. However, a variety o...

Beef Prices Up on Limited Supply

According to USDA, Americans spent about 6.4 percent of their annual consumer expenditures on food in 2012. However, protein prices are rsing at a faster r...

Market Commentary

The soy complex ruled futures markets today, and press reports highlighting road blockages by Brazilian truckers ruled the soy complex. The corn and wheat...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

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