Aggies were greatly dismayed when the U.S. Supreme Court passed on hearing their challenge of U.S. EPA’s regulatory approach to cleaning up the Chesapeake...
Articles
Market Commentary
Today’s trade was much more reserved, but volume was again well above average. Funds continued to slowly add to their long soybean position, now reportedly...
U.S. Senate Election Outlook
Of the 34 seats up for reelection this year, 24 are held by the Republicans and only 10 by the Democrats. That certainly gives the latter more chances for...
More Things to Keep You Up at Night
While the amount of frost-freeze damage to certain crops is unknown at this time and drought continues to be an issue in some key regions, the planting int...
Oilseed Highlights
A WTO dispute settlement panel ruled yesterday on the complaint filed by Argentina in December 2013 regarding the EU antidumping tariffs implemented agains...
Market Commentary
The way the futures market reacted to today USDA's reports, it seems that it was not only starved for fresh fundamental news, but it was also eager to be s...
China as Potential Top Pork Importer; U.S. Meat Production
China now consumes about half of the world’s pork and has a growing demand into the future that can’t be sustained by small farms that also have an outsize...
Quarterly Stocks and Acreage Intentions
The long-awaited March planting intention estimates and 1 March quarterly stocks estimates from USDA were released at noon (EDT), which should provide mark...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Trade’s Benefits; Twisted Thinking
The recommendation of a regulatory reform council in Japan in relation to the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) is an example of how newly-created comp...
Farm and Trade Policy Tipping Points
Current farm policy is a vestige of a bygone era when caloric deficits were tangible and the tools of risk management and market information were imprecise...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
The last week was very surprising for corn in Argentina as well as Brazil and also an important factor in the big heat up in premiums. Despite the size of...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Ukrainian milling wheat prices quoted by traders grew as did those at the UBS ports. Traders’ feed wheat bid prices also increased along with export prices...
Market Commentary
Speculative soybean longs do not appear very worried about tomorrow’s stocks and acreage numbers. However, the history of periodic 1 March corn stock surpr...
Oilseed Highlights
The Genetic Engineering Appraisal Committee (GEAC), the government of India’s regulator responsible for issuing clearances for field trials of GM crops and...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
U.S.-Argentina Trade and Investment Framework
The new U.S.-Argentina cooperative agreement is wide-ranging and covers areas such as technical assistance in domestic economic reform, global development...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
According to the latest USDA country brief, Saudi Arabia will import just over 17 MMT of grain in 2015/16: 8.5 MMT of barley, 3.5 MMT of corn, 3.3 MMT of w...
Market Commentary
The rally of grain and soy futures prices marches on in a manner not seen since last summer. Again, the charge has been led by soyoil with the May contract...
The Transition Reports
The nature of agricultural markets is to always look ahead, and USDA's 1 March reports, especially the planting intentions, that will be released this Thur...
Therapeutic Nonuse; China Corn
Glyphosate is now under intensified scrutiny in the U.S. as the inspector general for the U.S. EPA announces an investigation into how well the agency has...
Market Commentary
This was a more interesting day in the markets. Corn and soybean futures were slightly lower overnight with wheat slightly higher. Wheat then found more ag...
2016 Fuel Consumption Track
Gasoline futures prices are now higher than ethanol futures prices for the first time in more than six months, a change being driven by a number of factors...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Tough Time to Make a Profit
There’s no question that big profits were made during the boom times and balance sheets looked wonderful. The problem is that money is now going out the do...
Perpetuating Inequities; Wrong Tree
American public attitude surveys show a continuing slide in public support for free trade, and that decline is encouraging politicians to use trade as a ne...
China In-Country Analysis
The estimated average utilization rate of China's soybean processing industry decreased sharply last week as a majority of those facilities ceased producti...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Egypt's GASC purchased 60,000 MT of French wheat last week at $189.20 CNF after receiving seven offers in total. The fact that the GASC preferred to buy ju...
Trade Policy; Change; Labeling Ruse
The Japanese refuse to liberalize rice imports, the Americans won’t budge on sugar subsidies and export credits, and Europe will never accept GMOs or hormo...
China’s New Farm Policies – Maybe
China has been using its version of crop price supports to achieve income support and experienced a similar progression of results as occurred in the U.S...
Oilseed Highlights
Some elevators are warning farmers that they will not accept soybeans produced from Monsanto’s Roundup Ready 2Xtend strain unless it gains approval from th...
Pork Outlook
USDA’s quarterly Hogs and Pigs report will be released tomorrow, and the market expects the data will be in accordance with the department's long-term base...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
Overnight trade in grains and the soy complex were mixed and directionless as markets began to wind down ahead of the long holiday weekend. Things perked u...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Wheat and barley prices at the Russian market continued to decrease (in RUB expression). Rye and corn prices grew, however, with the latter showing a signi...
Market Commentary
This week’s Turnaround Tuesday did not occur until today, Wednesday, but turning around is what grain and soy futures prices did amid moderate trading volu...
Cuban Paradise; Choco Diet; Deniers; Jobs
When the Soviet Union collapsed, Cuba was forced to grow crops without inputs like chemicals or machinery – making it an organic mecca. To the Big Ag commu...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
There was an FOB cargo of soybeans traded in Santos this week at +55 or 56 SK for April, while paper was bid at +50 SK. This seems to indicate port premium...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading volumes were not impressive, and this pattern continued during the day session. Noncommercial support sent soybean futures prices up 12 c...
TTIP Frustration; Mercosur; Labels; Fraud
In a signal that frustration is growing on the American side over Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) negotiations, U.S. Ambassador to th...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Egypt reports that current wheat supplies are sufficient until July 2016 and that it is planning to purchase 4-4.5 MMT of local stocks during the April-Jul...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Oilseed Highlights
Palm oil futures prices rose today to a two-year high as a result of increased exports and expectations that production will decline because of reduced rai...
The Fading Cuban Embargo
The purpose of the Cuban embargo was to enable the Eisenhower and Kennedy administrations to showcase their stance against evil communism, while the advert...
President Visits Cuba; Ag Secretary Signs Technical MOU
Since trade in agriculture and medicine was authorized in 2000, U.S. ag exports to Cuba grew to a high point of $685 million in 2008 before dropping steadi...
Wheat Could Get More Interesting
While the quick cold snap that occurred this weekend over the U.S. hard red winter wheat region had been forecast, the problem was that actual temperatures...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
The EU allocated 85,000 MT of “zero duty” import licenses for Ukrainian wheat, leaving a balance of only 140,000 MT under that quota for the rest of the ca...
Cattle on Feed Report
Last month's feeder calf placements data points to a changing supply situation for the beef market next quarter. Similarly, feedlots' fed cattle marketings...
Food Symptom – Economic Cause
For Cuba as with all other nations, adverse economic policy is the disease; poverty and hunger are the resulting symptoms.U.S. aggies have pitched their ho...
Market Commentary
Corn had a relatively quiet trading day, but the market was firm the entire session. The strong wheat market in the early part helped corn as did the stron...
China In-Country Analysis
U.S. ethanol exports to China soared to 111,426,533 liters in January (+178 percent) at an average price of $.38 per liter ($482.69/MT). As there are only...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
The soybean market tried to sustain a rally. The new crop November contract even scored a four-month high, while May again bumped up against resistance at...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
India's parliamentary committee on ethanol blending is not happy about the Ethanol Blending Program (EBP) and its current status. It wants a plan within th...
Soybeans Keep Ticking
A record soybean crop in Brazil and another or near-record one in Argentina, coupled with U.S. soybean ending supplies projected to double from last year,...
House Budget Committee Approves Budget Resolution
Rep.Marlin Stutzman (R-Indiana) and Rep. Dave Brat (R-Virginia) joined all Democrats on the committee in rejecting the budget plan, which may be indicative...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Oilseed Highlights
Because of the huge drop in India’s exports of non-biotech soymeal, animal feeders in Europe seeking imports of that variety have had to find alternative o...
Market Commentary
Whether or not the luck of the Irish was involved on this St. Patrick’s Day, the lowered economic forecast from the Fed yesterday sent the U.S. dollar into...
Macroeconomics; Sugar Sin Tax; Dairy Pushers
Dairy producers are pushing back against a World Health Organization (WHO) proposal that would discourage what it terms “inappropriate” promotion of manufa...
The GMO Labeling Debate
GMO labeling is an emotionally thorny issue that is argued on the basis of food safety, but it has moved well beyond the science that should be the determi...
FAPRI Beef and Pork Projections Diverge from USDA’s
The Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) at the University of Missouri has issued its 10-year baseline projections for U.S. agricultural...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Grain prices continued to drop overall (with the exception of milling wheat) at both the Russian and Ukrainian grain markets due to the strengthening local...
Rhetorical Context; GMO Label Endgame
A national rule on GMO labeling is inevitable. Today’s loss in the Senate by a compromise backed by aggies but opposed by most Democrats means one of...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
There were many soybean trades in Argentina last week. Cargoes were sold at levels of 10 SN for April and May shipment, but most interesting were the three...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading in grain and soy futures found prices generally lower amid what can best be described as a lack of interest. That interest did not accele...
Label Compromise; TPP Polling; Miscellany
A recent survey by Pat Cadell (23 February – 3 March 2016) of 1,950 Americans explained much about the politics of trade and the Trans-Pacific Partne...
A Few Odds and Ends
There have been various topics of interest and potential importance for commodity markets in the news during recent days with a few that particularly warra...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
The daily trading ranges were just 3 cents for corn and 6-7 cents for both wheat and soybeans. In closing mostly a bit lower, grains and soybeans joined wi...
Oilseed Highlights
USDA has reduced its forecast for U.S. soymeal usage in 2015/16 with a higher volume of canola meal imports from Canada cited as one of the reasons. Certai...
Global Trade Slowing Down
Global trade is down across the board, but it is not a harbinger of doom and gloom nor an indication that an inevitable recession will befall the world eco...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
The Turkish government has increased the local value-added tax (VAT) on imported DDGS and corn gluten feed in order to protect domestic soybean/sunseed cru...
China In-Country Analysis
The lack of a clear direction from China’s central government regarding the unwinding of domestic corn reserves and the huge buildup of cornstarch inventor...
Ethanol Exports and Imports
While the 2015 U.S. ethanol exports total of 844 million gallons was 2 million gallons below the 846 million gallons in 2014, this was still only the third...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
The EU allocated 991,000 MT of wheat export licenses last week, a decline from 1.6 MMT during the same week a year ago that was largely due to the Russian...
Market Commentary
Nearly all of the action today was in the corn pit, and there was a good volume of trade. Meanwhile, wheat finished the day with decent gains in Minneapoli...
Another Weather Outlook
Will this strong El Nino winter, which left super unusual weather patterns in its wake, affect the North American growing season?It is soon to be all about...
Market Commentary
Corn and soybean markets were steady to higher overnight, while wheat was slightly easier. That pattern held true today. Trading volume was pretty average...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
As poultry meat demand continues to rise in India and with “safe food” a requirement of both the government and domestic customers, there could be opportun...
Attract Young Farmers, or Retain Middle-Aged Farmers?
Given the demographic history of farming in the post-World War II era, the actual issue may not be the number of new young farmers coming into the business...
More Things to Keep You Up at Night
Heading into the spring planting season, weather is starting to become at least interesting across the Northern Hemisphere. The U.S. winter wheat crop is g...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Brazilian Real and the Global Broiler Market
There are three factors favoring Brazil's exports on the global broiler market, which are forecast to reach a record-high volume in 2016, and two are relat...
Miscellany
Following this week’s bilateral discussions, EU Trade Minister Cecelia Malmström says that the U.S. must acquiesce to even stronger protections of geograph...
Market Commentary
Yesterday’s WASDE may not have given markets anything new, but today featured a notable amount of outside news for traders to ponder. Meanwhile, the U.S. d...
Oilseed Highlights
While farmers may have a positive view of the Indian government’s action on Tuesday that reduced the royalty Monsanto can charge for planting its patented...
Still More on Position Limits
Dodd-Frank required that the CFTC set speculative position limits for futures contracts based on physical commodities “where appropriate” in order to deter...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Ukraine's domestic feed corn prices declined as a result of the stronger UAH, larger offer and lower export offer prices. Meanwhile, prices at the Ukrainia...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Paraguay is still looking for soybean demand with offers at 38/40 SK for April-May and 42 SN for June-July shipments. Meanwhile, the market in Brazil has b...
Argentina Will Take Years to Recover
It is easy to see the damage the policies of the Kirchner government have inflicted on the Argentine agricultural sector. The heretofore large export taxes...
Market Commentary
Soybean futures traded in a relatively narrow 8 cent range on both sides of Tuesday’s close before ending the session quietly with a small gain. As with co...
TPP Over-Enthusiasm; Trudeau and Dairy; Inequality
Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is pushing the Diet to ratify the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement during its current session in an effort to b...
Mandatory QR; PC Ag; Ethanol Rent
The politicization of agriculture in Europe continues with a report by Reuters that the EU will not be extending the approved use of glyphosate through 203...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
The overnight session saw grain and soy futures prices trade lower following Monday’s technically disappointing trade. That weakness carried into the early...
Too Short for Comfort
Under the seemingly endless barrage of bearish inputs and analysis, grain and soy prices have basically been headed downhill since last July. In this marke...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
According to the latest reports from Morocco, the 2016 wheat harvest could be 54 percent smaller than last year with possibly the lowest levels in four yea...
Ag Review: Opportunities in the Philippines
Sorting Through the Hazards With over 100 million people and an investment grade rating, the Philippines is an important player in the global agricultural...
Chinese Chicken Imports
Following its audit in May 2015 to determine whether China maintains standards that conform with three key U.S. poultry inspection laws, FSIS has decided t...
Senate Budget Committee Halts Budget Work on FY 2017 Resolution
U.S. Senate Budget Committee Chairman Michael Enzi (R-Wyoming) today announced that the committee will suspend any potential action on the FY 2017 federal...
Market Commentary
Markets were higher overnight, and that buying followed through to today’s trade. There wasn’t any specifically bullish news, but there was a great deal of...
March USDA WASDE
It's USDA report time again, and the trade will be closely watching the corn and soybean production estimates for Brazil and Argentina in addition to U.S...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
The new crop (August/September) Bulgarian feed wheat traded at around €146-€147 ($160-$161) FOB last week, but the offers have climbed to €149 today. The m...
Senate Budget Committee Halts Budget Work on FY 2017 Resolution
U.S. Senate Budget Committee Chairman Michael Enzi (R-Wyoming) today announced that the committee will suspend any potential action on the FY 2017 federal...
Dereliction of Labeling Duty
USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack has chosen sides in the biotech labeling debate, and it is with the mandatory approach of his political compatriots in the Senat...
China In-Country Analysis
For the second consecutive week, China's average domestic corn price dropped because of downward market pressure. The weekly wholesale price will likely fa...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Continuing Pressure on the Short Side of Wheat
One of the important misconceptions regarding the wheat market today is that prices are low because world demand has slowed. This is simply not true by any...
RINs and Taxes Pushing Ethanol Use in U.S. and Brazil
The bear market for crude oil is having its impact on biofuels around the globe. In the U.S., ethanol prices are higher than gasoline, putting a limit on d...
Buy High; Spinning out of Control
The recent announcement that Farmland Partners Inc. (FPI) just closed on a purchase of 22,100 acres in central Illinois in a deal valued at $197 million ($...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
India’s 2016/17 union budget was released and has been hailed as rural-centric with an emphasis on agricultural growth and sustainability. When the Modi go...
Market Commentary
Yesterday it was the wheat market putting on a sharp rally as funds moved to cover some of their vast short position. Today it was the soybean market’s tur...
TPP Supports; GM Labeling; Ag-Less CFTC
U.S. commodity groups are beginning to realize that regional trade agreements like the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) that only deal with market access an...
Final COOL Rule; Chicken Supply; Eggs
One apparent impact from the repeal of COOL for beef and pork could be seen by reviewing the origin of feeder pig receipts. Among the 86,698 receipts, abou...
Oilseed Highlights
The Chinese government’s efforts to restrict canola imports from Australia and Canada may be of benefit to the EU if Ukrainian rapeseed exports decrease as...
Market Commentary
Wheat gained a couple of cents in overnight trading, while corn and soybeans were up by fractions. However, the tone was set for the day session, which did...
Tales from Export Sales
This week's Export Sales report from USDA offers insight into the grain market's likely price pattern going forward. Based on historic export patterns, U.S...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Less Bearish Thoughts; Cuba and Trumped
It is easy to become glum in this bearish market, but there is a sort of tarnished silver lining. Make Agriculture Great Again It is easy to become glum in...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
The Argentine soybean market was active this week with trades for April-July at levels of 6 SN for April and May, 10 SN for June and 14 for July FOB. At th...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Grain prices at the Russian market fluctuated insignificantly (in RUB expression) during the week in review. Meanwhile, the ag minister released a statemen...
Market Commentary
While grain and soy futures markets could not mount a successful rally yesterday as most outside markets did, prices for grains and the soy complex (except...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Due to the current drought situation, South Africa will be relaxing some of its GM grain rules in order to allow maize imports from the U.S. and Mexico. Wh...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
U.S. Agriculture Outlook: Part Two
When trying to determine future supply and demand, the usual question marks involve producer planting decisions as well as weather conditions during spring...
Heritage Foundation Budget Backs Off Ag Programs
The Heritage plan would cut federal spending by $10.5 trillion over 10 years and lead to a balanced budget by 2023. Given the source, surprisingly little o...
Bright Spots: TPP; GMO Pre-Emption; COOL
Everyone agrees that the U.S. Congress could not pass the Tran-Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement if it was presented for a vote today, but there is optim...
Heritage Foundation Budget Backs Off Ag Programs
The Heritage plan would cut federal spending by $10.5 trillion over 10 years and lead to a balanced budget by 2023. Given the source, surprisingly little o...
Market Commentary
With most outside markets trading higher today, grain and soy markets seemed poised for another “Turnaround Tuesday” rally effort. The best the corn market...
Oilseed Highlights
The Chinese government is tightening its phytosanitary inspections of rapeseed/canola from Canada and Australia, supposedly out of initial concern that&nbs...
Loss Suits; Fourth Revolution
If the Internet is an example of how energy, mechanization and digitization can be melded to better inform the public, the lesson is that there is an equal...
Fuel Market Outlook for Ethanol
While its prices are down and squeezing margins, ethanol is still more expensive than gasoline, which limits discretionary blending. Moreover, production h...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
China In-Country Analysis
The market has been closely watching how reform proposals noted in the central government’s No. 1 agricultural policy document will be implemented. Meanwhi...
Market Commentary
KC and Chicago wheat futures traded steady to slightly higher much of the session with Mpls under slight pressure. Today was also first notice day for deli...
Planting Intentions or Bankers’ Intentions?
It appears that there are bankers now offering farmers advice on what crops to plant along with their decisions regarding operating lines of credit.A call...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
The remaining exportable wheat surplus in Serbia totals about 800,000 MT with approximately 500,000 MT exported since the start of the campaign. Despite th...
Agricultural Outlook
USDA Chief Economist Robert Johansson tried to identify the silver lining this week, saying that input costs would be lower and off-farm income would be hi...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
The chemical sector is an integral part of the Indian economy. Because of the country's fuel blending program, though, it must rely on imports for a large...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
Corn was under some selling pressure all day, and trading volume was above average. Another very strong day for the U.S. dollar also helped preserve the be...
More On the Outlook Forum Numbers
The acreage numbers used weren’t surprising. The talk over most of the winter has been that U.S. farmers want to plant more corn. There might be some exter...
Crop Insurance and the Budget
Crop insurance has been the most popular risk management tool among producers over the past two farm bills. It has also been a program supported by most me...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Renewed Hormone Retaliation; Farm Bill Subsidies
USDA reports that the Agriculture Risk Coverage and Price Loss Coverage programs in the 2014 Farm Bill cost $500 million dollars more than the direct payme...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading was quiet with grains and soybeans holding small gains. The release of USDA’s acreage projections for 2016/17 gave markets something new...
Oilseed Highlights
USDA released its annual long-range projections for major U.S. crops earlier this week. While it does forecast a small boost in soybean yields, some life s...
Feeder Outlook; Red Meat Production; White Angus
Despite less expensive feed last year, high cattle prices until the end of the year kept feedlot margins mostly in the red. With an expanded cattle supply...
U.S. Agriculture Outlook
USDA's Outlook Forum got underway this morning where its planted acreage and farmgate price projections were released. Unlike the initial and final estimat...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Ukraine's domestic milling wheat, feed wheat and feed barley prices all increased during 15-19 February as a result of the weakening national currenc...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Brexit Symbolism; GMO Hindsight
The UK’s Agriculture Ministry is apparently split over Brexit. Meanwhile, British farmers are no doubt frustrated with rules from Brussels such as the requ...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentine corn premiums are coming down slowly from the high 50s to 48-50 CK for April and May shipment. It seems there are various buyers awaiting 40-45 C...
Market Commentary
Ongoing weakness in crude oil and financial markets put more downward pressure on grain and soy futures prices overnight. Then the mid-session rally of the...
Argentina Update
Mauricio Marci was elected president of Argentina on 22 November 2015 based on a reform agenda he promised as a market-oriented conservative. Since he took...
Oilseed Highlights
Brazilian farmers are increasingly concerned that some states are beginning to impose ICMS taxes (value-added taxes on sales and services) on commodities m...
Market Commentary
It was Turnaround Tuesday with a vengeance. Prices were mostly lower but also largely lacking buyers or sellers in slow overnight trade. Corn posted an alm...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
The latest FAO report on Iran’s grain crops shows small increases for all in 2015 with both wheat and barley production up about 7 percent. Overall 2...
Tiptoeing into Climatology
One of the most studied patterns used by climatologists is the El Nino-Southern Oscillation, commonly referred to as ENSO. However, there are other factors...
Food Control; Export Taxes; Campaign Topics
Under pressure from European political leaders, the Continent’s food manufacturers have conceded to an effort at making their products more healthful. Howe...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
The Return of Monetary Velocity
Commodity prices are down, the stock market is volatile, and global economic news is worrisome. Nonetheless, it looks like the U.S. economy is about to gro...
RFS and GMO; TTIP Life Support
U.S. and EU trade negotiators meet this week in Brussels, but actual progress on the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) may be going bac...
Federal Crop Revenue Insurance
It was the excellent revenue insurance program that was most responsible for pushing cash land rental rates and actual land values so high and so quickly d...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
Soybean futures responded to the sharp gains in crude and financial markets, trading 8-9 higher at mid-morning before weakening towards noon. Meanwhile, co...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
It has become difficult to find offers for Russian 12.5 protein wheat below $180 FOB, while German wheat with similar quality is offered at $175 FOB. Meanw...
China In-Country Analysis
Given the current state of China’s economy and its slowdown, the food inflation spike in January to the highest level since May 2014 plus the notable incre...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
The government of India (GOI) released the 2nd Agricultural Production Estimates for the 2015/16 crop on 15 February 2016, which includes the rabi season (...
Market Commentary
Grain and oilseed futures were uneventful today with very narrow trading ranges. Volume was strong in corn, while it was just average in wheat and soybeans...
More Things to Keep You Up at Night
Lentils are now trading at record high prices with peas expected to follow. These high old crop prices and relatively strong new crop prices will have an i...
2016-2017 Crude Oil Forecast
The real gross domestic product (GDP) forecast for the world as weighted by oil consumption, which increased by an estimated 2.4 percent in 2015, indicates...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
Today’s price action shows that without the recent bout of short covering, grain and soy markets are starved for direction. March options expire tomorrow (...
Argentina over Cuba; Smarter, Fatter
President Obama is receiving more press coverage (and more political ridicule) over his upcoming trip to Cuba, but his second leg in the voyage to Argentin...
Oilseed Highlights
French company Avril has agreed to invest in a partnership with Dow AgroSciences to develop a high-protein winter rapeseed for planting in France. The rape...
What is Missing?
It is nearly eight years since the financial crisis that led to the Great Recession, and many central banks have used aggressive monetary policies to stimu...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
USDA Releases Long-Term Outlook
In preparation for its Outlook Conference next week, USDA released its 2016-25 baseline outlook today, which indicates growth in a number of areas. USDA Re...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
With the Brazilian lineup growing and Chinese margins improving, soybean demand is expected to return to Argentina. The last trades were performed at 11 SN...
Costly Misleading Activists; Healthy Food; Preemption
USDA is increasing the amount of healthy foods, including perishable fruits and vegetables, that stores must stock in order to become an approved retailer...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
Renewed short covering helped grain and soy markets to recover overnight losses and move modestly higher, a pretty apt description of the price action thro...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Wheat and barley prices at the Russian market moved in different directions during the week in review, but they mainly dropped as rye and corn prices grew...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy futures trade was rather dull with low volume overnight and again during the day session. Prices traded on both sides of Monday’s closes in n...
TTIP; Regionalization; India; Cuba
The EU achieved a significant victory in the WTO where a dispute settlement panel ruled that Russia’s import ban on European pigs and pig meat was “disprop...
Potpourri of Odds and Ends
Despite the usual lack of important fresh inputs for markets to digest, there is a seasonal trend for grain and soy futures prices to move slowly and modes...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
A recent study released in Europe indicated Africa’s failure to adopt GM crops cost its agriculture sector $2.5 billion from 2008 to 2013. It further noted...
Oilseed Highlights
The Philippine government is scrambling to publish new regulations governing the importation, consumption and production of GM crops by 23 February. This i...
EPA in Court Over the RFS – Seven Times
The latest two lawsuits facing U.S. EPA are from Valero, the nation’s largest refiner and third-largest ethanol producer. The first petitions that EPA move...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Crop Program Spending
Although the payment estimates from the president’s budget and the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) for FY 2016 are relatively close and within standard e...
Market Commentary
It was another day of very narrow trading ranges for corn, wheat and the soy complex with volume more normal or average. Heading into today, managed money...
Farm Bill Trouble; Fat Bastard
One plank in the Republican candidacy of Donald Trump for the American presidency is frustration with so-called political correctness. He would be blowing...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
The state governments in India have taken effective steps over the past few months to control the supplies and costs of pulses in the face of a potentially...
North American Wheat Outlook Changing
Projected tight wheat stocks in Canada and more ample supplies in the U.S. are likely to impact planting decisions with implications for the wheat outlook...
Oilseed Highlights
While Russian Agriculture Minister Alexander Tkachev denied that his country's newly announced ban on U.S. corn and soybean imports was in any way politica...
Market Commentary
Despite another sinking spell by world stock markets, overnight trading in grain and soy futures was low in terms of volume and very quiet in terms of pric...
Too Much Pursuing Too Little
Too much supply pursuing too little demand has been the predominant common thread tying up grain and soy markets for more than a year. The markets’ job is...
CME Actions on Cattle Market; NCBA Response
The CME yesterday announced specific actions that it will take regarding the live cattle futures market, which followed complaints from two producer groups...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
Soybean, soymeal and soyoil futures were mostly all sharply steady today. There was small selling pressure into the close, but that only dropped prices a p...
Moscow Enablers; How Sweet it Isn’t
The media reports the gloating of some activists as more countries consider imposing taxes on sugary drinks as a purported health initiative. However, the...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Grain prices at both the Russian and Ukrainian markets continued to rise in the local currencies due to their devaluations. Meanwhile, Russia plans to impl...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentina's corn market is quiet. Origination becomes a few dollars more expensive every day, and replacement basis is above FOB offers. Because of this, c...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Oilseed Highlights
India’s soybean processors have greatly reduced their crush volume due to certain factors and had asked the government to take specific action to boost imp...
President’s Budget Proposes Crop Insurance Cuts
Crop insurance baseline spending cuts are to occur over several years and come from a 10 percent reduction in all policies containing a “harvest price opti...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
The day started with another round of gloom and doom as well as a risk-off mentality. Grain and oilseed futures markets were little changed overnight and t...
TTIP Gone; Ag Pain; Energy Bill Threats
A bipartisan bill entitled the “Energy Policy Modernization Act” is stranded as U.S. Senate negotiators hold proxy fights over things like aid to Flint, Mi...
USDA Report Maintains the Bearish Trend
There was nothing bullish in USDA’s numbers today. However, USDA did tinker with corn more than anticipated in mid-winter and revised the world wheat endin...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
The latest USDA FAS GAIN report for Turkey shows 2015/16 production of wheat, barley and corn will be higher. Although imports of these three grains are ex...
Market Commentary
The grain and oilseed markets were mostly steady overnight, but that changed when U.S. financial markets opened with big losses. Those losses accelerated q...
China In-Country Analysis
Newly released data indicates U.S. agricultural exports to China declined in December 2015 for some products, but there were notable increases for others...
February USDA Reports
The trade will likely focus on crop production estimates for Brazil and Argentina in tomorrow’s USDA reports. Even though no one expects significant change...
Ethanol’s Role; Big Trouble; Meatless Philosophy
China has record stocks of unpalatable rice, rancid vegetable oil, tainted wheat and moldy corn, and Beijing is trying to square how to make the surpluses...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
FY 2017 Budget Preview
Typically, the submission of the president’s budget sparks a number of congressional hearings and starts the process of Congress formulating its own FY 201...
Ag Review: Big Data
From Cold War to Farms Big data got a slow start in agriculture and many fear some of the outcomes it offers, but opportunity is certainly one of them. Lin...
TPP; China Acquisitions; Countercyclical; VW
The TPP agreement was signed this week in New Zealand, and some ministers proclaimed that they would not wait for the Americans before pushing it through t...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
More Things to Keep You Up at Night
Ever wonder how dirt cheap energy could be so bearish today when that used to be a bullish economic factor, or how some people know who’s buying and sellin...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
The collapse of India's agriculture sector is apparent throughout the country and results from several factors. Due to the needs of a growing populat...
Market Commentary
Wheat was steady overnight but turned lower at today’s opening. The selling pushed the March Chicago contract below $4.70, and that triggered more technica...
Cotton: Farm Programs No, Commodity Certificates Yes
While USDA has determined that it does not have the authority to designate cottonseed as a minor oilseed under the 2014 Farm Bill, it did announce the elig...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
GM Doors Open; Taxing Burgers and Oil
China National Chemical’s (ChemChina’s) purchase of Syngenta will not only lead to improved crop yields in China, but it should also create a path for comp...
Oilseed Highlights
After notifying Congress yesterday that he lacks the legal authority to provide subsidies to cottonseed under the PLC and ARC programs, USDA Secretar...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
The weaker USD helped support grain and soy futures prices overnight amid decent trading volume. However, its influence waned during day session futures tr...
Selling Commodity Markets
It is not easy to change long-entrenched, negative public perceptions about futures markets and speculators, much less explain why they are important in ev...
Japan-Australia Trade Agreement Threatens U.S. Beef in Japan
Unlike the U.S., Australia inked a direct bilateral deal with Japan in 2014, the Japan-Australia Economic Partnership Agreement (JAEPA), which took effect...
Complex Food System Demands
Food system managers express frustration over the seemingly simplistic and yet complicated demands coming from consumers. In many ways, their demands are o...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
While some grain market experts are expecting a 35 percent boost in Ukrainian wheat exports in MY 2015/16 compared with the past two years, there are also...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn lineups are astonishing everyone in Argentina. More than 1.5 MMT were loaded in January, and close to 2 MMT are slated for February. March/April/May l...
Market Commentary
Futures price action during the day session more or less continued the overnight pattern with wheat closing a few pennies higher, corn down less than 2 cen...
Market Commentary
Grain and oilseeds markets firmed up at today’s opening. The most positive market action today was across the soy complex with corn trying to follow the ra...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Zambia reports that it has received many maize export requests from neighboring countries that it is unable to meet. Zimbabwe is said to have asked for 500...
Imagined Demand; Farm Bill Trouble; Wrong in Iowa
The ink is barely dry on the 2014 Farm Bill and its implementation is incomplete. However, lobbyists in Washington are already advising that it is time to...
Cruz Wins Iowa Republican Caucus Despite Opposing RFS
Cruz stated that the RFS itself, specifically the EPA-issued Required Volume Obligations (RVOs), limited the use of corn ethanol compared with the statutor...
Oilseed Highlights
According to an Indonesian government official, the French Senate passed biodiversity legislation on 21 January that would impose a very high progressive t...
Market Commentary
Overnight selling accelerated at today’s opening, notably in wheat. Corn and soy markets did recover most of their losses this morning, but those minor gai...
TPP; TTIP; Scofflaws
The EU Commission has determined that there is no need for continent-wide legislation to deal with perceived unfair trading power by wholesalers/grocers ov...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
CME Addresses Live Cattle Futures Contract Concerns
In his speech at the NCBA's Cattle Marketing and International Trade Committee on Friday, CME President Terrence Duffy laid out a number of reforms to be i...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
The Black Sea market remained about unchanged last week. Demand is difficult to find, and there are several other competitive origins. Meanwhile, Ukrainian...
The El Nino Winter Continues
Weather was in the market news last week as it always is, but there was also another round of discussion regarding El Nino/La Nina and the weather patterns...
China In-Country Analysis
China's soymeal inventories continued the pattern established after the first week of 2016 and dropped by 80,600 MT (-5.6 percent) last week to 1.35...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Weak Science; Chobani Chopped
Writing in the Wall Street Journal, Steve Nissen and Nina Teicholz show that effectively attacking the U.S. government’s dietary guidelines is like shootin...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
There is immense pressure on GOI to allow the trade of GM crops in India as such trade will continue to rise with full implementation of the Trans-Pacific...
U.S. Soybean Outlook
Soybeans are much cheaper to grow than corn, and input costs per acre will be a factor in many farmers’ planting decisions this spring when weather can als...
Market Commentary
Wheat tried to mount a small rally today in sympathy with higher corn and soybean markets, but it never found enough buying to spark much of a move. There...
U.S. Fed Sounds Soft as Bank of Japan Goes Negative
The Fed added some language to its statement following yesterday’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting that was not included in December’s, which...
Market Commentary
Before USDA’s morning announcement of canceled soybean sales, grain and soy prices were slightly lower during the overnight session with trading volume no...
Growing Concern over Live Cattle Futures
The discussion is focused on whether there are structural problems in the cattle futures market. At the core is the general issue of high frequency trading...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
A Few Trends to Watch
Market analysts try to identify trends and frequently explain a market’s short-term price action as part or confirmation of one. They also occasionally vie...
TPP Trouble; Free Trade Decline
The resignation of top Japanese Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) negotiator Akira Amari due to an aide’s bribery charges (he took money too but declared it)...
Oilseed Highlights
The U.S. biodiesel industry has renewed its efforts to convince Congress to change the recipients of the current $1/gallon biodiesel tax credit from blende...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian grain prices continued on an upward trend in RUB expression on the domestic market. They kept dropping in USD expression, however, and demand incre...
Market Commentary
U.S. stocks were slightly lower early in the day, but they recovered to show small gains as the Fed meeting finished. Neither anticipation of the Fed’s lat...
TPP; Beef; Ethanol; Duo
U.S. cattle producers, upset that prices for their animals have slid precipitously from previous highs, will be happy to learn that Europe is having better...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
In Argentina, there is a rapid heat up in soybean basis. 20 days ago, cargoes traded at a negative level of 9 SN below CBOT. This week trades are being mad...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Oilseed Highlights
Russia’s Federal Service for Veterinary and Phytosanitary Surveillance (Rosselkhoznador) today indicated it may soon prohibit U.S. soybean imports because...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
More details have been released regarding the Egyptian government’s program to become self-sufficient in wheat. The plan is to reclaim 1.5 million feddan (...
Natural Gas Consumption and Price Up
EIA reported this week that marketed natural gas in 2015 was priced 6 percent higher on average than 2014 levels, while it also has projected that co...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy futures trade was rather dull and low volume in nature overnight as well as again during the day session. Prices traded on both sides of Mond...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
China and the Soybean Market
China’s economic slowdown may have a direct negative impact on the volume of copper or crude oil it imports, but does this have a similar effect on its imp...
Backwards U.S. Farm Policy
One of the purported goals of the White House-sponsored “Rural Council” awarding assistance to “Local Foods, Local Places” (LFLP) partner communities...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
Corn managed to eke out miniscule gains when the soy and wheat markets moved to new daily highs in the last hour of trading, but it couldn’t hold even thos...
Weather Politics
While the House of Representatives will not return to session now until 1 February, the Senate has enough members in DC to convene tomorrow morning. That b...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Egypt’s GASC bought 235,000 MT of Romanian, French and Russian wheat last week at an average price of $189.17/MT, approximately $1.50 cheaper than what the...
Potential U.S. Corn Balance Sheet
There are already a number of private analysts issuing guesses on what farmers will plant in 2016. Most are looking for more corn and soybean acres as well...
China In-Country Analysis
China's average domestic corn price dropped for the second consecutive week, hitting its lowest level since 19 November. As of last Friday, it stood at RMB...
Pig in a Poke; UnGRAS Selective Breeding
When the U.S. Congress gave extra incentives for the production of a fuel (cellulosic ethanol) that did not exist, too many naive policymakers thought it w...
More Things to Keep You Up at Night
The bearish psychology that has blanketed agricultural markets for many months has masked a significant developing story. That story is the severe drought...
Market Commentary
Commodity markets started strong this morning, pushed up against technical resistance and broke down when that resistance couldn’t be penetrated. Weekly U...
Federal Budget Outlook
This week CBO released a preview of its annual Budget and Economic Outlook for the 2016-2026 period. If the 2016 deficit projection is accurate, this will...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
India is importing corn for the first time in 16 years, limited for use by only actual end users. Non-GM is specified and is being sourced from Ukraine. Ho...
SmartLabel; Ruse 65; Iowa Canary
A small group of U.S. senators has expressed concern that the food industry’s SmartLabel initiative is inaccessible to the poor. However, there are at leas...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy markets were active overnight with prices edging higher in line with outside markets. Trading quieted some during the day session with soybea...
Cooking the Books; Sweet Mess; Polling
U.S. Senator Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) knows he isn’t going to like the outcome of the U.S. International Trade Commission’s (ITC’s) review of the Trans-Pacif...
USDA Ending Grass-Fed/Natural Beef PVP
USDA’s Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS) has withdrawn two voluntary marketing claim certifications for beef under the Process Verified Program (PVP) as...
Oilseed Highlights
Argentina's farmers have been seeking the recently enacted changes in the country's export policies to boost their incomes as well as improve their crop ro...
Prices and Production Adjustments
Today production in South America or the Black Sea region and demand from China, North Africa or Southeast Asia are as important and influential to markets...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
The Ukrainian Ministry of Economic Development and Trade reports that domestic companies have now received licenses to export 400,000 MT of corn to the EU,...
Papering Over; Tardy; Local Poisoning; Hoarders
The Obama administration is suggesting that complaints from industry over the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) can be resolved through implementation plans...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
There was a great deal of movement this week in the Argentine soybean market with five to seven trades completed at levels of -2 FOB for 15 April and 58 SN...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy futures markets were buoyed yesterday by the macro influences from the financial sector, and they were pulled back today by those same influe...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Low levels of precipitation are affecting South Africa's intended maize plantings for 2016 as well as those of Zambia. With farmers in both countries expec...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy markets as well as other commodities were caught up in surging world equity markets, which were heaving a macro sigh of relief that China’s g...
India Revamps and Expands Crop Insurance
This new model will more than double the government’s fiscal cost for premium subsidies, but it is also expected to more than double the amount of crop cov...
Oilseed Highlights
Soyoil has clearly gained the most demand in China during this decade. Its consumption is forecast to be one-third greater in 2015/16 than in 2010/11 despi...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
An Updated View of Corn Supply/Demand
While USDA's lowering of the final 2015/16 U.S. corn production estimate in the January WASDE was a mild surprise, its forecast for ending stocks was adjus...
Protectionism; Legality; Commodity Cycle
South Korea has once again completely banned all imports of U.S. broiler meat due to a geographically limited outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
GOI has issued a new seed price control order, effective March 2016, which aims to fix the sale price of cotton seed (with GM technology) as well as contro...
Market Commentary
Corn, wheat and soybean futures markets had another mixed session. Everything was lower early, but corn and wheat rallied to trade 3-4 higher by midmorning...
Transatlantic Policies; Abetting Liars
Political analysts credit the rise of unconventional candidates like Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders to public frustration with the duplicity of convention...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Ethanol Issues and 2016 Outlook
While the controversy over the 2014, 2015, and 2016 RFS and RVOs continues, the EIA and USDA released their monthly forecasts for this year's ethanol deman...
More Things to Keep You Up at Night
There were two interesting presentations at farm meetings this week. The first was a weather recap by the climatologist from the University of North Dakota...
Oilseed Highlights
There have been conflicting reports regarding whether Brazil’s soybean sector has asked the government there to file a WTO complaint against U.S. soybean s...
Trends and Fundamentals
The small declines in estimated 2015 U.S. corn and soybean production in this week’s WASDE along with the smaller winter wheat plantings for 2016/17 will n...
TPP Handwriting; Shame on Chobani
U.S. agriculture is a major beneficiary of the TPP, but the sector is only really important in a minority of congressional districts. The rest of the busin...
R-CALF USA Calls for Antitrust Investigation into Cattle Markets
R-CALF USA sent a letter to the Senate Judiciary Committee on 5 January that requested an investigation into “potential antitrust and anticompetitive condu...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
It has taken a few days, but the effect of Tuesday’s USDA reports, which were seen as surprisingly bullish, seems to have largely worn off. Meanwhile, USDA...
Policy Machinations; Unnatural Edge
Just as Russia reaches the point of becoming the world’s largest wheat exporter, the government is proposing a move that could undermine that positioning...
Market Commentary
Overnight trade in grain and soy futures found both sides of yesterday’s closes, but prices did not stray far in either direction. Trading seemed subdued c...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
According to Rosselkhoznadzor data, Russia exported 23.6 MMT of grain as of 12 January and since the beginning of MY 2015/16. 35.57 MMT were exported in 20...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Old crop corn continues to be traded in the Argentine market. At the FOB market, exporters are still offering their purchases from the FAS (before the elim...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Oilseed Highlights
While the reports were slightly positive for U.S. soybeans, that does not offset the overall negative outlook for the sector in the year ahead due to sever...
State of the Union Preview: Trade and the 2016 Campaign
With the 2016 election looming, tonight's State of the Union address is expected to have a sustained emphasis on the president's accomplishments. One Obama...
Market Commentary
When USDA lowered its production estimates for 2015 corn and soybeans today, it caught managed money funds leaning the wrong way. Wheat markets were domina...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Israel and Turkey are reported by Ukraine to be in discussions regarding FTAs that would cover its grains, oilseeds and agricultural equipment along with f...
The USDA Reports
USDA released its reports today, which cover final production estimates for fall-harvested U.S. crops, 1 December quarterly stocks, winter wheat plan...
For the Dogs; Local Canard
After Australian Green Party leader Richard Di Natale declared that GMOs were not unsafe for humans, the Australian National Farmers’ Federation asked that...
China In-Country Analysis
The projected drop in soybean imports during January and February should give the major crushers some added breathing room as they work through the massive...
The Politics of Ethanol and the Outlook for U.S. Senate Elections
Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX) has capitalized on the national trend toward skepticism over the RFS among Republican voters, drawing the attention of the ethanol...
Market Commentary
Corn, wheat and soybean futures were steady overnight, although they turned decidedly lower once today’s session opened. Wheat and corn were down the harde...
Tomorrow’s USDA’s Numbers
Even though the average trade estimate for corn production shows very little change from the November USDA report, there are a number of analysts who belie...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Outlook for Brazilian Real
While much attention has been focused on the value of the U.S. dollar since the U.S. Federal Reserve Board modified monetary policy and started to raise in...
Gamble by Campbell; Dangerous Maize; ISDS
The UK’s organic food promotion entity, the Soil Association, has gone beyond its warnings against chemicals and GMOs and now castigates one of the most pr...
Crop Budget
The crop budget worksheets are of course only estimates, and virtually every producer will have a different set of numbers. Yields are always the key facto...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
The markets were slightly higher overnight, and those gains turned into a mini short covering rally this morning. Outside markets were also mostly higher t...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
GOI is permitting PEC Limited, a State Trading Enterprise (STE), to import 500,000 MT of corn for poultry feed and starch manufacturers under the tar...
Market Commentary
After early weakness, most corn futures contracts closed unchanged or near thereto. Meanwhile, in the face of all the macro turmoil, soy complex futures pe...
Dietary Guidelines Released
Today the U.S. Departments of Agriculture and Health and Human Services jointly released the 2015-2020 Dietary Guidelines for Americans. At the time of the...
USDA’s Monthly WASDE
All WASDEs are important, but some are considered more so than others. Each January issue will contain USDA/NASS’s final production estimates for fall harv...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Oilseed Highlights
Lower export sales were anticipated last week because of the New Year holiday. However, today’s USDA export sales report indicated net soybean export sales...
TPP Challenges; No Pudding, Some Meat
A larger problem for the TPP is that even the pact’s supporters in the U.S. (the business community) have mostly endorsed it with the caveat that it needs...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy futures prices were lower as the overnight session ended and again as the day session opened. However, when March corn failed to break below...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
According to sunflower oil traders, decreasing export prices may lead Ukrainian producers to consider a significant response. Those prices had dropped to $...
Land Grab; China Biotech; Biofuel Cruising
Some in the biofuel community are lamenting that U.S. EPA slightly reduced the blend requirements for their prized fuel, but the U.S. Navy has announced pl...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
While Argentine farmers continue to claim that they are not receiving the maximum prices exporters can pay for the goods, largely because of the large stoc...
Market Commentary
Soybean futures contracts closed up about 1 cent except for January, which gained 3.25 cents and is now at a 10.5 cent premium to March. The inverse has be...
Too Many Bears?
There is no denying that grain and soy markets have been, and continue to be, driven by a barrage of bearish supply/demand fundamentals. However, when mark...
Oilseed Highlights
As a result of recent policy changes by the Argentine government, farmers are now expected to double wheat plantings in the next growing season and corn pl...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
It is reported that fewer than half of the maize plantings in South Africa have been completed due to the severe drought. With yellow maize prices up about...
Bundy Beef Subsidy; Transatlantic Shipping
An armed gang masquerading as honest hard-working cattle ranchers retains control of a federal wildlife refuge in Oregon. One accomplishment of this privat...
Input Costs – Natural Gas
While grains were 19 percent lower on the S&P Goldman Sachs Commodity Index (GSCI), energy was down 41 percent. However, there may be a silver lining t...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
While Argentine feed wheat is trading at $155 FOB, which makes it the world’s cheapest feed wheat/grain, most EU importers are not willing to purchase it b...
Market Commentary
Rains across the dry areas in central and northeastern Brazil did materialize over the weekend with more in the forecasts. This precipitation coupled with...
China In-Country Analysis
Early last week at the 2015 Provincial Economic Working Conference, provincial authorities announced resolutions to continue subsidizing local corn process...
WOTUS and GM Labeling Outlook for 2016
While 2015 ended with passage of a major budget and appropriations bill, the WOTUS rule and legislation regarding the mandatory labeling of GM foods...
NME China; Processed Labor; Oil Market
The U.S. is asking the EU to join in opposing China’s elevation next year to “Market Economy Status,” which may make antidumping cases more difficult to up...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
The Reality of Low Prices
As they begin planning for 2016, many producers are now thinking the big bull market might have been the worst thing to happen to production agriculture.20...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
Markets on this last trading day of 2015 acted very much as they have for quite a while. Noncommercial traders are carrying large short positions in wheat...
New Era for Egg and Layer Industry Has Begun
More than a half-dozen companies have announced just this month their plans for procuring only cage-free eggs in the future. Overall, more than two dozen h...
A Cautious Look at 2016
Big crops along with growing grain and soybean stocks will continue to be the most important underlying fundamental factor for futures markets and cash mar...
Organic Checkoff; TPP; Bear Market Bailout
The new year will likely bring the publication of a proposed rule by USDA instituting a checkoff program for organic crop producers. The proposal is contro...
Year-End for the Food Pundits
While foodies are recounting their victories from 2015, including compelling an increasing number of major food vendors to pledge their future allegiance t...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Agriculture Minister Aleksandr Tkachov indicated that the 104.3 MMT of grain harvested (in clean weight) covers the total 69.9 MMT required for dom...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
While it has become common practice for exporters to fill all of their storage capacity with corn during December and January in preparation for March ship...
Market Commentary
Soybeans futures closed mostly about 4-5 cents higher in surprisingly active trade. Long grain/short soybean spreads were being unwound, which contributed...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Egypt’s GASC has made a few important changes to its wheat purchase terms that impact the acceptable levels of ergot as the country also implemented tighte...
Unsweet Impacts; Not So Simple Future
Some studies suggest that Hershey's decision to no longer use sugar produced from sugar beets may end up causing more harm to the environment as a result...
Dark Days for Commodity Funds
There are innumerable variations among commodity funds and how they are managed/ traded, but they share one very consistent characteristic.Trading by pools...
China’s Modernizing Feed Industry and Growing Commodity Demand
The Chinese Ministry of Agriculture is projecting growth in meat output during 2016-20 and targeting “above scale” farms for this expansion. This signals a...
Market Commentary
Corn prices were helped out of the red by a strong rally in wheat and the ability of soybeans to recover from a mid-session sinking spell. Besides being a...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Oilseed Highlights
Reports indicate some farmers are already abandoning soybeans in the drought-inflicted Brazilian states and have begun planting the fields to corn in hope...
No More Beet Sugar in Hershey’s Kisses
While Hershey’s has always used both cane sugar and beet sugar, it will shift to using 100 percent of the former because it is non-GM. The issue is that 10...
China In-Country Analysis
China proved to be a welcome addition to Washington State’s export portfolio this past fall. With carryover of the 2014 apple crop running into early Novem...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
The feed wheat market in the Black Sea is under pressure in the absence of buying interest with the low pro Argentine wheat significantly more competitive...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
Markets of nearly every type were lower in quiet holiday trading. Wheat tried to resist the downside pressure in corn and soybeans and was mostly successfu...
Technology Dampening; Supply Chains
Companies have been arguing that trade negotiators must catch up to the fact that global supply chains have become critically important. Lightening Metapho...
The IoT and Big Data Impact on Agriculture
Economics, as a discipline, has been based on several assumptions over the years, and the evolution of Big Data and the “Internet of Things” (IoT) is rapid...
Cattle on Feed: Heifer Retention and Slaughter Weights
Last month's feeder calf placements data points to a changing supply situation for the beef market next quarter. Similarly, feedlots' fed cattle marketings...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Some Christmas Wishes
While we still have a Christmas wish list, it no longer includes things like ice skates, a Lincoln Log set and a cowboy suit. Is our current wish list a be...
Oilseed Highlights
Although U.S. exports and unshipped sales of soybeans and soymeal continue to run behind the pace of a year ago, today’s USDA export sales report indicated...
Market Commentary
In a market environment like this, the price direction of least resistance is usually lower. Overnight trade seemed almost at a standstill with grain and s...
Food Outpaces Commodities; Top Five; Surveys
Major agricultural commodity prices will be mostly flat in 2016, according to USDA, but the agency predicts that food bought for consumption at home will i...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Ukraine's domestic milling wheat prices grew slightly. Thus, traders’ raised their bids to $142-172/MT EXW in order to accumulate necessary stocks before t...
Market Commentary
Corn futures contracts closed down three-quarters of a cent in very slow, quiet trade that moved corn prices within a narrow 3 cent range. The U.S. Energy...
Tribalism; Gadflies; Luddites
People should be judged on the quality of their character and not the color of their skin (ethnic/geographic origin), but apparently it is the opposite whe...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Soybean demand returned to Argentina last week. Six cargoes were traded FOB and CNF at levels of -9 SN FOB and 57 SN CNF, both for May/June shipment. Consi...
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
The Blumberg Grain Command and Control Center has opened in Egypt and will be used to manage the government’s Shouna Development Project. It is said...
GMO Labeling; Trade and Economics
USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack has reportedly invited both the food industry and anti-GMO advocates to a meeting on resolving the labeling issue. Given their i...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Where Does the Fed Go Next?
While Congress was busying piecing together a fiscal policy deal on the budget and taxes, the Federal Reserve moved to raise interest rates for the first t...
Bona Fide Hedging
One of the thorniest issues involved in setting speculative position limits concerns the exemptions that commercial market users are able to receive for po...
Market Commentary
Daily price action has become a technical affair with corn futures prices seemingly headed for a test of support near $3.63. Chicago March wheat has now fa...
Oilseed Highlights
India’s Solvent Extractors Association (SEA) has once again urged the government of India (GOI) to raise the tariff on refined vegoil imports. It wants an...
Market Commentary
Wheat couldn’t find any friends today and was the weakest link in the agricultural markets. Like corn, Chicago wheat futures are mired in a technical tradi...
Cotton Supporters Seek Farm Program Status for Cottonseed
Technically, it is cotton lint that is no longer eligible for certain crop support programs, and cottonseed could qualify as an oilseed. Thus, the Na...
Nairobi’s Mixed Messages
The ministerial declaration emanating from the WTO’s meeting in Nairobi this past weekend is hailed by some as “historic” and by others as a disappointment...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
China In-Country Analysis
China’s domestic soymeal inventories decreased last week to 1.32 MMT, down 150,000 MT or 10.2 percent from the previous week, largely because of two factor...
Weather Starting to Play Bigger Role
The super strong El Nino continues to be in the news on almost a daily basis. It is also starting to receive some press in agricultural markets as its impa...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
The EU allocated 1.1 MMT of wheat export licenses last week, bringing the cumulated total to 11.4 MMT versus 13.6 MMT at the same time last year. The weekl...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
India imported 1.337 MMT of vegetable oil in November 2015 versus 1.189 MMT during the same month a year ago, which has pulled prices down. While this may...
Brazil Weather Starting to Attract Attention
While it is difficult to assess the impact of weather on Brazil's overall crop production at this point in time, it is safe to say that it will be difficul...
Market Commentary
Yesterday’s trade was a key technical reversal in the soybean market, and that brought more follow-through buying today. Wheat chased the soybean rally, wh...
Meaningless and Meaningful Words
The major farmers and food makers in America lose when any biotechnology product approved through the regulatory process is disparaged. Meaningless Food W...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
WASDE and Long-Term Projections
USDA’s December WASDE report (released last week) indicates a slight reduction in broiler and beef production for 2015 and 2016, while it shows pork produc...
Market Commentary
The soybean market staged a late session rally that caught the market by surprise. Its sudden reversal was strong enough to pull corn along with it and eve...
Some Winners, Some Losers
As a result of equivalency agreements, Edward Jaenicke of Penn State University found that U.S. organic food exports have increased 58 percent over the pas...
The Demand Side Blues
The simple fact is that annual production and thus the annual renewability of grain and oilseed supplies allows for a quick production response to high pri...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Oilseed Highlights
In its decision to ban the development of biotech eggplants, the Supreme Court of the Philippines also struck down a 2002 government regulation that allowe...
Food with Pathogens
People in the conventional food business are smiling as Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. walks back from its pledge to use “local” ingredients at it...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy prices traded slightly firmer overnight, but they faded to red early in the day session and stayed that way through the close. Some of the we...
Omnibus and Tax Extender Deal Reached
Lawmakers reached a deal early this morning on the omnibus spending bill and the tax extender package. There are a number of provisions in both that signif...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
The Russian Ministry of Agriculture’s first forecast for the 2016 grain harvest estimated it at 104 MMT. However, market experts are not as optimistic with...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
As FOB basis continued dropping last week, a cargo of Argentine soybeans was traded by the end of the week at levels of -2 SN for full May shipment. Today...
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
Pakistan reportedly has a large surplus of wheat that will rise considerably after the next harvest. If the government does adjust the export price, which...
Sickest; U.S. Dilemma; Perishable Cost
The World Health Organization (WHO) produced its first ever estimate of food-borne illnesses. While there are worse places in the world, the U.S. is a prim...
Oilseed Highlights
Because of low cotton lint prices, the U.S. cotton industry is asking USDA to make cottonseed eligible for the Agricultural Risk Coverage (ARC) and Price L...
Still Awaiting the Omnibus
The omnibus budget bill has still not been released, although it was expected to be this afternoon. Received reports indicate that a large number of the am...
A Few Random Thoughts
It is mid-December, a time when grain, soy and other commodity markets are anticipated to slow down with the Christmas holiday looming in 10 days. However,...
Market Commentary
With the stronger U.S. dollar, weaker soybeans and corn plus the absence of any supportive news or inputs, today’s stronger wheat market seems hard to rati...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
The Black Sea market for milling wheat remained about unchanged last week without any major trades reported. While the price in rubles is attractive to Rus...
Preliminary USDA Baseline Projections
USDA released its preliminary 10-year baseline projections last Friday without much narrative. Like the weekly crop condition reports during the growing se...
Market Commentary
The markets started the week mixed in the Sunday evening session, but corn, wheat and soybean futures traded higher through most of today. There was none o...
China In-Country Analysis
Last week’s domestic corn prices averaged RMB 2,050/MT ($318.50/MT), a slight decline from the previous week. Local traders indicated a similar drop in the...
No Budget and Tax Agreement – Debate Likely to Continue This Week
Indications from Capitol Hill suggest that the package could be released tomorrow, 15 December. House Speaker Paul Ryan says he remains committed to allowi...
COP 21 Exemptions; Doha and Nairobi; Surveys
The Paris agreement on greenhouse gas reductions is at once a marvel and a façade. It reveals the extraordinary difficulty of getting a Conference of Parti...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Lower corn production in India led to higher prices for end users in early October 2015, forcing starch plants to reduce capacity with poultry operators pl...
Renegotiation of TPP; Cotton Fluff
Word is that USDA is considering allowing cotton farmers access to not just the subsidy program the industry demanded as their key support in the 2014 Farm...
Current Budget Situation in Historical Context
Not one of the 12 regular appropriations bills for FY 2016 needed to be passed by 1 October 2015 under regular order was finalized. In fact, this has been...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
El Nino Weather Notes
El Nino has become a popular topic of conversation these days, although it probably never made the news during the 1997-98 event.Paul Douglas, a nationally...
Market Commentary
Markets were choppy overnight with corn and wheat slightly lower as soybean futures traded 3-4 higher on light volume. That pattern changed at this m...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Oilseed Highlights
CARIBO, the organization representing Argentina’s biodiesel producers, indicated it is seeking to prevent the U.S. Congress from converting the current bio...
Market Commentary
After a listless overnight session, grain and soy futures prices began to work higher as the day session developed. The only things new were the weekly exp...
Congress in Action
Amidst a great deal of cynicism and doubt, the U.S. Congress is on a path toward several accomplishments before departing late next week for the holidays.A...