Led by KC HRW, U.S. wheat futures prices charged higher on word that Russia was attempting to restrict grain exports by denying quality certification on ex...
Articles
Black Sea Regional Analysis
It was reported on 15 December that Russian grain exporters have suspended the signing of any new grain export contracts due to the recent RUB rate fluctua...
List of 40 RFS Reform Ideas Released
The Bipartisan Policy Center (BPC) staff constructed the options into a list, noting that the effort was directed at providing reform and not repeal...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
During this week, Brazil finally started to weaken the real (Brazilian currency). The market had expected this move after the elections, and farmers were i...
Oilseed Highlights
France's Agriculture Minister Stephane Le Foll today announced the government there plans to spend about 150 million euros per year between now and 2020 to...
Organic Shakedown; RFS Reform; Hostile
Both ethanol supporters and its oil industry opponents panned a set of reforms to the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) proposed by the Bipartisan Policy Cente...
Market Commentary
The corn market tried to follow wheat's early strength but could not generate enough serious buying interest to make a go of it. Soybeans were weak all day...
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
Morocco's grain imports for the June-October period are up by 80 percent against last year at a total 2.2 MMT including 750,000 MT of wheat and 1.1 M...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Currencies and Other Stuff
The steady growth of the U.S. economy has caused the U.S. dollar to appreciate against the currencies of other nations such as Russia, Ukraine, Brazil, Arg...
Market Commentary
Corn traded higher most of the session on more confusion over whether China has or soon will announce the approval of the MIR162 hybrid. Meanwhile, none of...
China In-Country Analysis
The falling soybean stocks in China's ports and the delayed arrivals have allowed crushers to firm up their soymeal prices. However, producers' oil and mea...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Approximately 15 percent of Bulgaria's intended wheat acreage could not be planted due to excessive rains, and the 2015 crop will be 4 MMT at best (v...
Latest 2015 Crop Budget Worksheets
The projected 2015 net returns per acre, even though still negative for spring wheat and corn and barely positive for soybeans, are far better than they we...
Funding Bill: Final Ag Numbers and News
The agricultural provision of the appropriations language provides $20.6 billion in discretionary funding – $305 million below the FY 2014 enacted level. I...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Markets Don’t Feel Like the Holidays
Nearly every market analysis or presentation seems to start with the assessment that the "world is awash" in grains and oilseeds. It is now mid-December, a...
Market Commentary
Markets were very active overnight in very good trading volume for the night session. Prices turned decidedly higher when Europe came to work, reportedly o...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
New Republican House Ag Committee Members
Incoming House Agriculture Committee Chairman Michael Conaway (R-TX) has reorganized a number of subcommittees to better suit his announced priorities...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
The Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs (CCEA) has approved a higher procurement price of molasses-based ethanol in the range of $2.94-3.00/gallon for th...
Compromise and Trade
In essence, the U.S. government has just successfully made a $1.1 trillion, 1,603-page piece of sausage nicknamed the "CRomnibus." Those hoping for accompl...
Federal Government to Stay Open
The funding bill included a directive for USDA and the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) to report recommendations to Congress no later than 1 May 2015 that...
Futures Position Limits Redux
Clearly, the CFTC is having difficulty fitting commercial hedging practices and the long-standing hedging exemption for grain markets into its proposed new...
Oilseed Highlights
China's Ministry of Commerce is currently indicating the country's December soybean imports will be about 6.8 MMT, but that number is far below the likely...
Market Commentary
After a few days of hesitation, technically-trading funds returned to the grain and soy markets today. They were most active in the corn market where they...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
Any bullish impact from USDA's higher 2014/15 soybean export estimate and lower soybean carryout was swept away by Conab's forecast that Brazil's soybean c...
Atlantic versus Pacific
German Minister of Agriculture Christian Schmidt cautioned a Washington audience that his countrymen lack confidence in American production practices such...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentina's new crop wheat is currently being harvested. Although it is the least expensive and best alternative for Brazilian millers, they have decided t...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
649,400 MT of grain were exported from Ukrainian sea ports between 1-7 December, while 429,100 MT were exported from Russian sea ports during the same peri...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Anticipating the December WASDE
Without fresh production estimates for U.S. corn and soybeans, the December WASDE only offers some adjustments to those estimates for elsewhere around the...
Immigration; Derivatives; IT
While most migrant labor was previously focused in the specialty crops area, the whole agricultural sector has become more broadly dependent on workers tha...
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
Reports from Turkey indicate that the government is now strictly enforcing GMO import rules, which have resulted in the rejection of several vessels of U.S...
Oilseed Highlights
Brazil recently imposed a 7 percent blending mandate for combining biodiesel with petroleum diesel. The higher production would increase the use of soyoil...
Crude Oil Exports
Although oil state lawmakers of both parties support the lifting of the crude oil export ban, the rank-and-file non-energy state Republicans are more cauti...
Market Commentary
After trading slightly lower overnight, corn and soybean prices both encountered enough buying about midway through the day session to carry them to gains...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
The feed wheat price rally (approximately $30 in one month) is motivating consumers in the EU and the major Mediterranean destinations to increase their co...
Ag Review: Transportation Outlook 2014
Limits on Agriculture and Transport The upcoming U.S. election is occurring amidst geopolitical upheaval and macroeconomic malaise, but there is a pan-Paci...
China In-Country Analysis
China rolled out several agriculture reform policies regarding land use, seed development and agriculture insurance over the past two weeks as the country'...
Notes from the IAOM
No one was outright bullish about wheat. The consensus was cautionary heading into 2015 because of the potential production problems that "might" occur.I w...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
March corn spent the day drifting lower from the daily high of $3.9975/bushel to close about 10 cents lower. However, it is premature to interpret this pri...
Quick Look at the FY 2015 Federal Budget So Far
According to the CBO's monthly budget review for November 2014, the federal budget deficit was $181 billion for the first two months of the new fiscal year...
Trade Week; Sugar Inequality
Washington has been captured by several special interests through the years but perhaps none as successfully against the odds as sugar producers. Trade Non...
Wheat – Part II
How great have world wheat crops been? Russia, Ukraine, China, India and Canada have all had record yields in at least two of the last three years. However...
Market Commentary
Today's price action in March corn looks strong. That contract seems to be in the process of rejecting recent market discussion about the formation of a he...
Oil Prices Changing Incentives
The news is full of stories about falling oil prices. While energy is a key component of the economy, high and low prices simply switch economic incentives...
Friends; Surprise; Okay
While Chinese government officials announced an effort to reduce fertilizer and pesticide use by 2020 in an attempt to decrease pollution, the U.S. EPA was...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
India's annual edible oil demand stands at 18-19 MMT with an annual growth rate of approximately 4 percent. Last year's imports totaled 11.3 MMT, but that...
Politics, Supply and Demand
Whenever crop prices fall uncomfortably low, there are always those who argue that the U.S. government should return to some sort of supply management prog...
Oilseed Highlights
Today's USDA export sales report indicated U.S. exporters last week sold substantially more soybeans and soymeal than analysts surveyed by Reuters predicte...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Argentina Uses Banks to Squeeze Farmers
The Argentine government is now financially pressuring farmers in its ongoing attempt to force them to sell the soybeans they are holding as a hedge agains...
Immigration Clampdown in Canada Impacting Pork Exports
Changes made to Canada's temporary foreign worker plan in June are having a negative impact on the meat packing industry and export expansion. This is due...
Market Commentary
Triggered by unexpectedly large export sales and helped along by fund buying, corn futures closed up more than 7 cents and near session highs. Soybea...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Brazilian soybeans presently look more attractive than the U.S. competition, but are hampered by concerns about dependability of shipments. However, waitin...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Rosselkhoznadzor, the Russian Federal Service for Veterinary and Phytosanitary Surveillance, wants to decrease the volume of grain exports by tighten...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy prices continued to languish in the red during much of the day session. January soybeans were down 12 cents at one point and well below techn...
Not Ready; Not Ready; Ready
The Obama administration is sending clear signals that it wants TPA and tax overhaul legislation. However, the first step is House passage today of tax ext...
Economics and Policy Redux
Agricultural commodity prices are low once again, sparking the return of the supply management advocates. Supply Management Redux Agricultural commodity p...
Oilseed Highlights
The new Indonesian government has made achieving self-sufficiency in the production of soybeans, sugar, rice, corn and meat a greater priority than its pre...
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
According to Egypt's Agricultural Research Center (ARC), approximately 14 percent of the country's wheat production is lost annually. It also said that Egy...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading in grains and the soy complex was slower and lower with modest losses across the board. There was more chatter about the potential for so...
Climate Change and Agriculture: Part Deux
Back in 2008, climate change was a hot topic for U.S. agriculture with both presidential candidates having proactive plans to address greenhouse gases and...
Looking for the Next Bull Market
With the fall harvests essentially completed and something of a hiatus in fresh inputs from USDA until 12 January when it releases final production estimat...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Wheat Takes Over
Early 2015 world wheat production estimates had been hovering near the record levels of the previous two years. Now a number of recent issues have pushed w...
Putin Oil; Interstellar Corn; Cotton Hypocrisy
OPEC keeps drilling and America keeps fracking despite crude oil trading under $70/barrel. This may not be the result of collusion between Washington and R...
Late Year Politics Driving Policy
Congress is back in a lame-duck session to hash out a few issues, most of which have been overshadowed by politics. These include tax exenders, appropriati...
China In-Country Analysis
China's domestic soybean crushers' margins did improve from mid-September through mid-November due to the idling of plants and a temporary supply shortage...
Market Commentary
There was little buying at today's opening in corn and soybeans, and they were both down 5-7 cents by mid-morning. Wheat, however, was strong overnight and...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
The dry and cold weather in southern Russia is a serious concern for next year's wheat crop. Local analysts are estimating that it could decline 10-15 MMT...
FDA Releases Menu Labeling Rule
Restaurants were originally opposed to it, but with a spate of state and local laws creating a regulatory patchwork, many national chains came around to su...
Market Commentary
OPEC's announcement that it will not reduce production sent prices crashing lower, while U.S. financial markets were strong and again reached new highs. Ag...
Sorghum Export Sales Soar
Changes in U.S. market share for global soyoil exports, along with those of soymeal, are analyzed. Results offer insight into the opportunities U.S. export...
Cyber Threats to TTIP; Extenders; Mercosur
U.S. agriculture can no longer claim to be singled out for abuse by Europe's anti-technology policy; Brussels now views major American information technolo...
Oilseed Highlights
Today's weekly USDA export sales report once again indicated there was a net decline in U.S. soymeal export sales last week of 22,300 MT. Meanwhile, last w...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
India's corn production has declined for many reasons including erratic rains, late sowing in some cases and also the switch to soybeans by some farm...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
The South American soybean market was quiet this past week. Demand from China is presumed to be slow because crush margins there are not very good. Then ag...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Ukraine harvested 62.298 MMT of grains and leguminous crops as of 24 November. That compares with 59.996 MMT as of the same date in 2013. Meanwhile, 82 per...
Market Commentary
The wildest action on the board today was in soymeal spreads. Meanwhile, corn was lightly traded, and prices dawdled around in a 5-cent price range before...
Mea Culpa
Experience breeds skepticism when it comes to trade policy matters, but that resulted in our erroneous underestimation of U.S. Trade Representative Michael...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
The Impact of the Strong U.S. Dollar
Potentially, the more immediate impact of the value of the U.S. dollar against the currencies of other exporting countries is on the planting decisions of...
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
Iran's Governmental Trading Corporation (GTC) estimates 2014/15 wheat imports at a total 7 MMT, approximately 64 percent of the 11 MMT that the country con...
Market Commentary
It has been a turnaround Tuesday with bells on. Grain and soy markets recovered yesterday's loss and more in many cases with the soy complex leading the wa...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Tax Extender Package
Legislators are already moving to permanently extend some provisions that have consensus support as good tax policy, and this sets up a longer-term debate...
Stocking; Salty and Sweet
India claims to need a food security reserve for hungry citizens, but it exports five times more food to the U.S. than it imports from America. Stocktaking...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Banks and Commodities: How the Coming Fed Rule Evolved
Prior to 1999 banking law reforms, bank holding companies were permitted to engage as principals on cash-settled derivative contracts as well as derivative...
Market Commentary
Wheat actually traded higher much of today's session on news that Saudi Arabia did buy 345,000 MT of optional origin hard wheat. However, it couldn't withs...
Railroads Again Get Poor Marks
The survey referenced was conducted by the Soy Transportation Coalition, which includes members from 12 states and two national groups. The coalition lobbi...
China In-Country Analysis
While China starts to reduce the role of government purchasing in the corn market, it is also beginning to shift its corn importing policy by possibly adju...
Regulations; Free From
President Obama says he will be using executive branch powers when Congress fails to act, and the regulatory agenda his administration released last week i...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
French wheat exports (to non-EU destinations) are expected to decline by 30 percent versus last year because of quality problems. Consequently, France's en...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
For the past few years, Indian farmers producing coarse cereals (corn, pearl millet, sorghum) increased their crops as prices grew much higher than the MSP...
Market Commentary
U.S. financial markets traded to new highs today, but did back off those peaks by mid-morning. This has been the biggest five-day rally since 2009. Like co...
RFS; COOL; Geopolitics; Exemptions
USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack this week complained that he could not change the Country of Origin Labeling (COOL) regulation so that it concurrently reflects...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Problems with Montana Wheat (and Other Insights)
There are apparently some significant quality issues surfacing in the Montana spring wheat and winter wheat crops that will in effect reduce the milling qu...
A Divergent Outlook for Exports
One of the most interesting aspects of 2014/15, aside from the new U.S. production records for corn and soybeans, is the divergent export prospects among t...
Market Commentary
The overnight session provided mixed results with corn and soybeans slightly higher, while wheat dragged a little lower. However, the day session proved mo...
Oilseed Highlights
U.S. exports of soybeans and soymeal in containers to Asian markets via West Coast ports stand to be negatively impacted by surcharges imposed by container...
Protein Inflation
Note that while next year's forecast regarding increases in protein pricing returns to normal 20-year trends for consumer inflation, it will be from a much...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Banks; the Vatican; Africa
Today was apparently the 25th anniversary of Africa Industrialization Day, but the Brookings Institute's John Page notes that while Asia advanced its own i...
TPA Odds; Immigration Ag
At least two top Washington political analysts in the past two days have acknowledged that Trade Promotion Authority (TPA) is as likely as any legislation...
Market Commentary
The day session saw a more decisive downdraft for grain and soy prices. Support from the cash meal market seems to be in rapid decline. Without that suppor...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Today the Argentine government finally assigned the wheat export quota among the main trading houses as its conflict continues with farmers regarding polic...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russia harvested 109.9 MMT of grain in bunker weight as of 18 November. Included were 62.2 MMT of wheat (2.61 MT/hectare), 21.2 MMT of barley (2.35 MT/hect...
Senate to Vote on Keystone XL Pipeline
The new Republican-controlled Senate in the upcoming 114th Congress was expected to pass the legislation approving the permit. However, the current lame-du...
The Soymeal Crunch of 2014
U.S. soybean processors crushed an estimated 150 million bushels during October, a record for the month. However, the limited availability of railroad equi...
Help Unlikely; Likely Helped
Intervention by President Obama seems highly unlikely, but 61 agricultural groups have nonetheless written to him asking that he intercede in the protracte...
Oilseed Highlights
One of the countries often overlooked as a market for soybeans is Turkey. However, it is one of the world's fastest-growing markets for soy as it expands i...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
According to the FAO, Egypt's 2014/15 grain imports will drop by about 1 MMT against last year, but the total is still approximately 1 MMT greater than the...
Market Commentary
The overnight session saw grain and soy prices mixed and the trading volume notably less than Sunday's overnight session. However, there was no doubt about...
China In-Country Analysis
China is seeking to increase corn imports from Europe with 36,700 MT arriving last week from Bulgaria, the first bulk shipment of non-GM corn since t...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
International Economic Roundup
There have been a number of economic developments in countries across the globe that along with other factors are impacting the value of the U.S. dollar.Th...
Market Commentary
Last Friday's collapse in soybeans and soymeal wasn't enough to discourage the bulls who bought early Sunday evening and again the last half of today's ses...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
The adverse weather in Bulgaria, Romania and Serbia is delaying the corn harvest with about 30 percent left to be completed. Additionally, the domestic log...
Positives and Negatives
The announcement by Japanese Prime Minister Shinzö Abe that he intends to postpone the next 20 percent installment in the consumption tax and call for snap...
More Things to Keep You Up at Night
Shuttle rail freight costs in the aftermarket have totally collapsed in the last few weeks. Shuttle trains were trading at a $4,000-5,000 per car premium j...
Congress Organizes
Yesterday the Republican and Democratic caucuses held their leadership votes for the upcoming 114th Congress, and the next step is to select chairmen and r...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Backwards Europe; Big Data
Environmentalists are hailing policy moves to rid Europe of the scourge of biotechnology, but now some member states have upset them by seeking expedited a...
Market Commentary
It has been another tumultuous week in the soy complex with new highs for this recent rally established on significant fund buying. However, when all was s...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Corn arrivals have started in Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Telangana and Maharashtra, but the prices farmers are receiving are not in accordance with the gov...
The Corn Loan Now in Play
Cash corn prices to the farmer today are generally between $3.00-3.50/bushel. There are a few reasons why farmers will be reluctant to part with more corn...
Oilseed Highlights
Dow AgroSciences has decided to not release its Enlist soybeans for commercial production in order to prevent the soybeans from getting mixed in cargoes de...
India; Extortion; Unorthodox
Europe and Japan are in a funk and lamenting that orthodox macroeconomic measures have failed to provide the stimulus needed to spur growth. Now it is bein...
Russia Upping Pork Broiler Bans
The Russian Federal Veterinary and Phyto-Sanitary Oversight Service (Rosselkhoznadzor) is planning to ban the importation of Canadian pork effective tomorr...
Market Commentary
Today was another active trading day, and there seems to be a growing consensus among market participants that current price levels could last in the soy c...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Frustration, Impatience and Delusions
Commercials and non-commercials trading any commodity futures market are united by an interest in the direction of price movements in both the short and lo...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Slew of Fallacies; Twists and Erroneous Intuitions
Artificially suppressing a country's currency exchange rate in order to boost exports and local employment has been the game of mercantilists for many year...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Monday's neutral WASDE report generally surprised South American traders. Most trading houses held short positions at the CBOT, but the unexpected strength...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
The Ukrainian sea ports shipped 25.946 MMT of grain cargos during January-October 2013, 43.7 percent more than during the same period in 2013. 666,500 MT o...
Market Commentary
That prices across the board swung in such wide ranges today is a clear sign of excitement and emotion as is today's huge volume that may have come close t...
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
Turkey's poultry industry is benefiting greatly from the Russian ban on EU imports with a jump in its poultry meat exports from approximately 50 MT per mon...
Now Demand is the Question
With the fall harvest in its closing stages and production and total volumes of available corn and soybean supplies closely established, the market's atten...
USDA Opens Comment Period on Second Beef Checkoff
This new checkoff would be authorized by the Commodity Promotion, Research, and Consumer Information Act of 1996, also known as the Generic Act, and the co...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy futures trade was subdued overnight with limited price action. After trading on both sides, corn and soybeans finished the overnight session...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Southern States a Substantial Contributor to Record U.S. Soybean Crop
One factor that has not received a great deal of attention is how much Southern states have contributed to the increase in U.S. soybean production in recen...
China In-Country Analysis
China's domestic soybean crush rate is estimated to have fallen below 45 percent during the week of 3 November due to the limited volume of soybean shipmen...
Absence and Awkwardness; Next Farm Bill
India is not a member of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) group of 21 economies, and consequently its version of events surrounding the Bali Ag...
What Will Be the Agenda of the 114th Congress?
Perhaps the marquee issue for the new Republican majority will be the repeal or majorly reform of the Affordable Care Act, aka Obamacare. There will also b...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
USDA November Reports Neutral to Supportive
Today's November USDA crop production estimates and supply and demand revisions were not as bearish as many analysts were expecting. USDA made no adjustmen...
Market Commentary
Markets were quiet in the Sunday night session with small losses in corn and wheat and small gains in soybeans. That trend continued when today's session o...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Russia has expanded its economic footprints in India, an old ally, after the imposition of sanctions by the U.S. and its Western allies. The importation of...
More on U.S. Soybean Exports
U.S. soybean sales are up more than 1 MMT from last year at this time. More importantly, while the market continues to expect China to slow total purchases...
Market Commentary
Soybean futures traded both sides of unchanged until the last hour or so of the session when they turned decidedly higher. Meanwhile, corn was weak overnig...
Lame Duck Session Next Week
The obvious "must-do" action item is the continuing resolution (CR) to fund the government as the appropriations bill that Congress cobbled together last y...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Endangered; No Proof Needed; TPP Progress
Farmers in the U.S. live in fear that a threatened or endangered species will be found on their property and adversely affect their operations. Now a feder...
More Politics; Exports; Regulations
Just hours after a major U.S. election outcome, sparks are flying over future U.S. policy direction with House Republicans warning President Obama not to t...
Oilseed Highlights
As expected, today's USDA export sales report showed a net reduction in U.S. soymeal export sales as a result of cancellations and switches to other origin...
Broiler/Pork Expansion Impact on Beef
While cattle supplies remain tight, broilers are continuing to expand in both numbers and in heavier weights. Pork production is also expected to increase...
Just a Few Odd Thoughts
With the November WASDE ahead and the midterm election behind us, we have had a few oddball and mostly unconnected thoughts that we will pass on for whatev...
Ag Review: The Harvest Issue
Bleak Harvest Ahead The world grain market may be headed into a bear trend due to burgeoning supplies, but a review of the policy seeds that have been sown...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
Soybean futures bounced around on both sides of yesterday's closes in nearly a 30-cent trading range before settling about 7-9 cents higher. Corn futures p...
Biotech Labeling; Bearish Markets; Trade Agreements
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) has unleashed its latest effort to spark inflation and thus economic growth, while negotiating partners in the Trans-Pacific Partne...
Market Commentary
After being weaker overnight and in the first half of the day session, corn and soy futures bounced off session lows to close higher despite the U.S. dolla...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Election Recap
Yesterday's midterm congressional election that resulted in Republican control of both the House and Senate also has implications for both chambers' agricu...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
The lack of U.S. dollars is a serious issue for the Argentine government. As a result, it has released 500,000 MT of old crop corn and 400,000 MT of old cr...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Due to rising concern among buyers, limited offer from sellers and rumors about the poor condition of winter crops, prices on the Russian domestic market i...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy prices opened the overnight session weaker, which carried over into the day session. Traders are concerned about what might happen if the H7N...
PredictIt; Oxymorons and Cowards; Actually Okay
The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) gave approval to a new prediction market, but revealed its bias toward politics, non-profits and unive...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
Egypt's plans to become a central grain hub for North Africa and the Middle East have apparently been accelerated with the government indicating that all p...
Oilseed Highlights
DuPont Pioneer India last week opened a crop research center in Hyderabad, India to develop new crop varieties for that country's agricultural sector. The...
Gasoline Prices to Continue Decline
Brent prices are now the lowest they have been since late 2010, before violence in Libya and other areas in the Middle East and North Africa disrupted sign...
The Guessing Game Again
When there have been month-over-month increases in yield and production estimates through October, history suggests that the odds strongly favor a further...
Market Commentary
Wheat withstood the weakness in soybeans and corn today and actually traded steady to slightly higher much of the session. The relative strength was likely...
Asynchronous; Just Because
Recognizing that the jump from conventional agriculture to "pure" organic is a large one, the EU has allowed numerous derogations from the original concept...
China In-Country Analysis
China's domestic crushers and traders seem to be welcoming the potential soybean shortage for the next month in order to reverse the profitability issues e...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
The Black Sea corn market was firmer last week, although not precisely following the CBOT futures rally. Ukrainian corn is offered at $177/MT FOB for Novem...
Ballot Initiatives of Interest to Agriculture
Tuesday is Election Day, and a number of down ballot issues of interest to agriculture will be voted on tomorrow including four related to GMOs. Tomorrow...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
How About That Soybean Demand
The domestic soymeal demand has been blamed for the recent strong rally in soybeans and soymeal futures. That has certainly been part of the driving force,...
More Things to Keep You Up at Night
The U.S. rail shuttle freight market, at least the BNSF, seems to be softening. If the weakness in shuttle rates stays, it should mean that interior basis...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
MSP Raised for Key CropsIn a bid to incentivize farmers, the government of India (GOI) has announced an increase in the Minimum Support Price (MSP) for sev...
Big Data; COOL; Survey
Producer groups want the Obama administration to simply appeal the WTO Dispute Settlement Panel's (DSP) decision that the U.S. country-of-origin labeling (...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
How Does the Value of the U.S. Dollar Impact the U.S. Economy?
The U.S. dollar has been on a bull ride of late, especially against the currency of some of our most important trading partners.The U.S. dollar has been on...
Market Commentary
The volatility in the soybean and soymeal markets continued last night and today. Corn did manage to rally to slight gains when the soy complex was surging...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
In a bid to incentivize farmers, the government of India (GOI) has announced an increase in the Minimum Support Price (MSP) for several of the 2014/15 wint...
Oilseed Highlights
Today's USDA Export Sales Report indicated U.S. exporters once again had a big week selling soybeans with a total 1.326 MMT. That was down by 39 percent fr...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Cattle on Feed
The dynamics between fed cattle marketings and placements are analyzed with their implications for next quarters' beef demand and pricing. Feedlot turnover...
Tricks and Treats
In a strange way, the approach of Halloween turns our attention to the current state of grain and soy markets here in the U.S. Twisting the spirit of "Tric...
Silly; USTR Falters; Just Checking
The EU has not approved a new biotech trait all year, and it was hoped that the outgoing Commission membership would at least move forward on two cottonsee...
Market Commentary
The overnight session saw grain and soy prices trade modestly higher in relatively slow action. However, after three days of higher closes, the markets pau...
Sugar Impact; Biotech; Balkanization
The state-by-state biotech labeling campaigns by technology opponents undermine the federal preemption on food marketing, and now the same is happening to...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
A meeting was held Monday between Argentine exporters and government officials. Exporters were expecting the release of 4 MMT of corn and 2 MMT of wheat fo...
Market Commentary
Corn and wheat were pulled along by the soy complex, although corn could build its own demand story from last week's ethanol production that averaged 937,0...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Ukraine has exported 11.237 MMT of grain as of 27 October 2014 and from the beginning of MY 2014/15. Included were 6.27 MMT of wheat, 1.624 MMT of corn, 3...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
U.S. and Mexico Reach Deal on Sugar Case
The U.S. Department of Commerce yesterday announced that it had reached preliminary terms with Mexico and its sugar exporters. If these are finalized, it w...
Fun with Export Sales Numbers
U.S. corn exports deviation from historic patterns has implications for what exports will be in the rest of the marketing year. Analysis of unshipped corn...
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
Iran's government announced that it will be working with the FAO to improve domestic wheat and barley production. While some say that the country is approa...
Market Commentary
Overnight strength carried over into the day session amid active volume. December corn continued to march ahead, while it was another volatile session for...
Oilseed Highlights
Yesterday's USDA reports showed much progress was made last week in harvesting the U.S. soybean crop. Illinois, Missouri, Indiana, Ohio, Kentucky and Kansa...
Brazil and Uruguay Elections
Brazil saw President Dilma Rousseff win a narrow victory over challenger Senator Aecio Neves, while Uruguay is headed to a runoff on 30 November in an elec...
World Roundup
USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack will help host December's U.S.-China Joint Commission on Commerce and Trade in Chicago. This will be an excellent opportunity fo...
Argentina is Still a Mess
There is some question regarding whether as many total acres of all crops in Argentina will be planted as expected with the low prices, high input costs an...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
Markets were soft overnight with corn and wheat 2-4 cents lower and soybeans down as much as 8-9 cents when the night session closed. That weakness evapora...
China In-Country Analysis
China's feed price remains low as a result of the declining domestic corn price and flat soymeal price, which boosts the livestock industry's profitability...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Ukrainian corn remains the least expensive origin for Asian buyers. However, the competitive advantage versus South American and U.S. PNW corn is only $2-5...
Enviro Snippets; Marketing; Sunday
Agriculture contributes 10 percent of Europe's carbon emissions, and a Commission study indicates that the farming sector could meet a 28 percent reduction...
The Soybean Outlook Stays Bearish into 2015/16
The soybean outlook continues to have a negative picture unless there is a significant production problem in South America this season or a big soybean yie...
Policy Potpourri
The EPA's approval this summer of two new pathways for generating cellulosic ethanol led directly to the August explosion in cellulosic production an...
Market Commentary
Yesterday's weekly soybean export sales number of nearly 2 MMT was the last straw that took futures briefly back above $10.00. Wheat futures seemed to sit...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
It is still too early to estimate India's sugar production because many mills have yet to begin crushing operations in Uttar Pradesh as there is a stalemat...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
TPP Signs; Never Enough
Over 170 people signed up for a presentation yesterday in Washington on the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) negotiations. As presenter Gary Horlick observe...
Index Funds Are Still Here
The last two or three years have been tough on commodity index funds. Most have lost money. However, rightly or wrongly, index funds are promoted as long-t...
Oilseed Highlights
Reports out of Brazil indicate a deal still has not been reached between exporting companies and Monsanto regarding the collection of royalties on its inse...
Squeeze on Hamburger
The current small herd means pressures on producers for herd expansion, which means less culling and a lower cow slaughter. This has the potential to...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy markets were mixed overnight amid lighter volume than has been seen the past several overnight sessions. However, the day session was anythin...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
TPP Timing; Hurdles
The U.S. and Japan have reportedly resumed negotiations on agriculture at this week's Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) meeting in Canberra. However, Tokyo w...
Market Commentary
Most grain and soy contracts held onto gains until the latter stages of the day session when buying interest slackened and hedge selling began to take over...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
The forecast for Russia's 2014 grain production has been lowered as a result of unfavorable weather conditions in areas of the country that have impacted t...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
During the last campaign, Brazil exported 4.4 MMT of soybeans in February 2014 (3.8 MMT to China) versus 960,000 MT in February 2013. The upcoming campaign...
Outlooks; Fooled
U.S. EPA will likely announce its final Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) blend requirement after next month's election. Had the Obama administration wished to...
Oilseed Highlights
The 2014 crop year was an exceptional one for rapeseed in the EU-28. Total production this year is estimated at 23.93 MMT by Oil World and 23.5 MMT by USDA...
Market Commentary
It was another "Turnaround Tuesday" for grain and soy futures markets. Prices gained modestly overnight in relatively light volume. The gains were limited...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
Grain traders in Iran have been quietly buying corn supplies in Black Sea markets with trade estimates that about 120,000 MT have been purchased. Prices ar...
Will WTO Ruling “COOL” Ethanol Exports?
Yesterday's WTO ruling regarding the updated implementing rule for the U.S. country-of-origin labeling (COOL) law could have implications for U.S. den...
Markets In Search of Guidance
Global economic uncertainties are likely to continue, and they will influence commodity markets including grain and soy periodically. However, many of the...
COOL Rule Issued by WTO: U.S. Must Comply
Today's decree essentially found that the implementing rule does provide less favorable treatment for Canadian and Mexican livestock, but stopped short of...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Wheat exports from Germany, Poland and the Baltic states are higher than a year ago. However, they are significantly slower from France (the biggest EU pro...
Talking About 2015 Already?
We are seeing a number of analysts telling producers they ought to be selling not just 2015 production, but also some 2016 production. This does seem very...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
China In-Country Analysis
Indications are that soybean shipments to China in October have been steadily declining. Part of the reason is a short-term drop in demand due to the seaso...
Market Commentary
It seemed like we were back to trading big yields and excellent corn and soybean harvest weather today, not fund short covering or rebalancing. U.S. financ...
Advocacy
Ethanol proponents' rebuttal to the California Air Resource Board's (CARB's) proposed indirect land use calculation (ILUC) offers both a sharp tongue about...
Market Commentary
The weekly export sales report released today wasn't enough to hold the market together as selling pressure started to mount in the soy complex, and there...
Drones in Agriculture
Although farmers are currently unable to fly over crop fields or pastureland to capture pictures or video of anything that would be sold commercially, ther...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
While India's poultry industry is against any trade of U.S. poultry meat, the general view is that such imports will be of low volume and not harmful to th...
Those Pesky Funds Keep Buying Soybeans
This week saw aggressive fund buying in the absence of any significant hedge selling, and prices went up instead of down. The strength during harvest likel...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Farm Bill Fun and Games
Whenever it becomes time for Congress to create a new farm bill (technically, to amend the 1938 and 1949 legislation), we are amazed by the number of diver...
Oilseed Highlights
NOPA's monthly soybean crush report, which was released yesterday, indicated soyoil stocks at the end of September totaled 936.88 million pounds (424,965 M...
Red Line for India; U.S.-China FTA
A few days ago, Indian officials dropped the hint that they were in negotiations in Geneva for a permanent "due restraint" agreement, allowing them to oper...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
Outside markets displayed a relatively calmer tone today. Grain and soy futures traded rather quietly, and prices were mixed during the overnight session w...
Two Beef Checkoffs?
USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack has declared that he will initiate a new beef checkoff that will operate side-by-side with the current version. Checkoff revenue...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
In Paraguay almost 70 percent of the wheat crop is already harvested with very good quality. This is a little surprising because there were some excessive...
Market Commentary
The November soybean price swung between 14 cents higher and 14 cents lower before closing down 12.25 cents at $9.525. Non-commercials have been shrinking...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Market experts indicate that 26 percent of the total 2014 Ukrainian wheat harvest is of milling quality. In addition, approximately 36 percent of the milli...
Sugar; Dead; Abe’s Call; Foreigners
Mexican Economy Secretary Ildefonso Guajardo is threatening to challenge the U.S. sugar program in the WTO, but the American sugar industry is likely...
Sino-Russia; U.S. Dollar; Chicken
China may in some ways favor Russia, but it has been ambivalent about the situation in Crimea. More importantly, it will buy Russian energy and opportunist...
Corn’s Updated Outlook
It is widely assumed that the November WASDE estimates for corn yield and production will likely be larger than October's. This assumption will grow strong...
Oilseed Highlights
Now that we have entered MY 2014/15, it is worthwhile to once again realize just how dominant China is as the main driver of global demand for soybeans and...
Market Commentary
Wheat futures prices closed 4-6 cents higher due almost entirely to the influence of the other markets. Last week's mediocre inspections show that wheat ex...
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
Egypt is considering a free trade zone with Russia, Kazakhstan and Belarus, also known as the Eurasian Economic Union. This would allow for increased expor...
Group Urges President Obama to Address Biotech And Trade with China
In its letter to President Obama, the U.S. Biotech Crop Alliance cited serious challenges to trade because of an unpredictable framework for approvals of n...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
Corn started to move reluctantly higher with the rally in soybeans, but advanced up sharply at mid-morning. There was little news around to excite the whea...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
The EU wheat (French, German and Baltic, etc.) remains more competitive for most destinations versus Russian and Ukrainian origins. Russia's remaining surp...
WASDE: Pork to Surpass Beef Production
This most recent estimate is founded on expanding pig production, higher farrowing intentions for the last quarter of 2014 into 2015 and a more rapid forec...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
China In-Country Analysis
China's Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) recently released the revised Measures for Overseas Investment Management, intended to encourage more Chinese compani...
Farm Bill Rewrite; TPA Trips TPP
The brand new, only partially-deployed 2014 Farm Bill may have to be rewritten as the outlook for commodity prices is substantially lower than the one used...
Malting Barley Prices on the Rise
Prices appear set to make a move higher, following a smaller-than-expected crop production coupled with some significant quality problems.Malting barley pr...
USDA Reports Not as Bearish as Expected
The markets have been anxiously waiting for today's USDA yield and production estimates for corn and soybeans since the September report was released. Near...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Corn prices in India have been moving lower over the past few weeks with no sign that the downslide is likely to stop. An end to this bearish trend will re...
Market Commentary
It was a topsy-turvy day in the markets both before and after the release of USDA's October reports. Volume in corn and soybeans was very large. Wheat volu...
Rio Grande; GSP
Mexico is reportedly demanding completion of a suspension agreement with the U.S. on antidumping and countervailing duty cases involving sugar by the end o...
New Chairman for House Agriculture Committee
Assuming the Republicans maintain their majority in the House, there will be a number of committee gavels to pass. This includes the House Agriculture Comm...
The Looming Struggle for Exports
A sizeable portion of increased global supplies will be in the hands of exporting countries. The U.S., Canada, Brazil, Argentina, the EU, Russia, Australia...
Market Commentary
Corn futures swung back and forth before winding up with modest gains of less than 2 cents. Wheat prices at all three markets clocked double-digit losses t...
Feed Additives Future
With Europe's ban on antibiotic usage for growth promotion in livestock and new voluntary standards in the U.S., the antibiotic share of the feed additive...
Don’t Plant; Yuan Shock
Bloomberg reports that China plans to globalize its currency by allowing its citizens to invest abroad and permitting Chinese companies to sell yuan-denomi...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Oilseed Highlights
The Argentine government claims that farmers and exporters are holding as much as 21-22 MMT of stocks as a hedge against inflation, which it considers fina...
Market Commentary
The stealthy wheat market has staged a technical "adjustment." Chicago wheat futures have mirrored the corn market by closing higher for the last six tradi...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Ukraine is reported to have produced a record volume of vegetable oil in MY 2013/14. Its share of the global market has been rising for seven years and rea...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
A question in the Brazilian soybean market has become, "Which will have more pressure to drop – the port premiums or the paper in Paranagua?" Most likely,...
Payoffs; Currency Irresolved
Coming on the heels of an announcement that American taxpayers are subsidizing rich Brazilian cotton growers with over $800 million, it has been revealed t...
Never Sell a Dull Market
Why have grain and soy markets broken out of their dull mode and rallied so sharply with the October WASDE now only three days away?Grain and soy futures o...
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
Officials in Egypt are stating that wheat imports in 2015 will drop by 50 percent to 4-4.5 MMT. However, most experts there don't expect any serious declin...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Ag Lawsuits
There have been developments in a few major legal issues relating to agriculture that have unfolded in the past several days, and the final resolutions of...
Ag Review: The Policy Implications of 2014
Policy for the Rest of 2014 The upcoming U.S. election is occurring amidst geopolitical upheaval and macroeconomic malaise, but there is a pan-Pacific poli...
Market Commentary
Today it was wheat's turn to lead the rally, and it did so in style. All three wheat markets spent most of the day session preening with double-digit gains...
Oilseed Highlights
The Argentine government is reportedly considering the establishment of a national grain company to compete with multinational exporting firms. Argen...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
The market in Romania and Bulgaria is very quiet. Farmers are still holding a large volume of wheat, but they prefer to wait for higher prices later in the...
Deflections; Hurdles
The U.S. reportedly settled a trade remedies case with Indonesia, although the solution is off point from the original challenge. Trade Policy Deflections...
China In-Country Analysis
Although the Chinese government has launched a new media campaign to educate and promote the safety of GM agricultural commodities, a quick review of China...
Brazilian Election: Who is Aecio Neves?
Senator Aecio Neves trailed far behind Marina Silva and President Dilma Rousseff early in the campaign, but placed second in Brazil's presidential election...
Market Commentary
Markets opened much firmer than expected Sunday evening and then continued to strengthen during the night and into today's session. Soybeans were clearly t...
The Mystery Rally
There was no unexpected export business around or any adverse weather forecast that could have been the cause. This would seem to be a good old-fashioned s...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Politics and Ethanol in Brazil and the U.S.
On Sunday, there will be a presidential election in Brazil where the Rousseff government has developed and implemented a tax credit for ethanol imports. In...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
India's 2013/14 basmati rice crop saw different varieties purchased by millers at prices ranging between $485-625/MT. For several reasons, however, the pri...
Market Commentary
Markets were quiet in light overnight trading activity. It was a low volume back-and-forth trading session with little in terms of fresh market inputs. Cor...
North Dakota Farm Meeting
There were representatives from the malting barley and sunflower industry at the meeting. This supports the idea that the "minor" crops are engaged in watc...
Divide; Differ; Distort
To say that the U.S. and EU economies are structured differently is an understatement. While public sector employment in the U.S. is smaller and has been d...
Market Commentary
After trading on both sides, soybeans, wheat and corn all closed higher in quiet trade. Wheat and soybeans were helped by good export sales volume last wee...
Oilseed Highlights
The recent sharp declines in global soybean prices may be good news for the world's soybean processors, food manufacturers and animal feeders after years o...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Bearish Global Dairy Market Won’t Slow U.S. Production
Some bullish factors in the U.S. include cheese and butter stocks in cold storage as of July that are at levels below the five-year average, which pushed u...
EU Prejudice; Gracias; Gridlock
Watching the new EU Commissioner-designates before the EU Parliament provides a sense that the new bunch is even more prejudiced against a Transatlantic Tr...
Tracking Market History
The desire of interested parties to "discover" the value of certain grains in the future is one of the reasons for the evolvement of the first futures mark...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Baleout; Undue Barrier
The U.S. has agreed to pay a relatively small number of Brazilian cotton farmers $300 million to settle a trade dispute over the size of subsidies given to...
Market Commentary
If one wanted market action today, he should have taken on the wheat market. Chicago wheat closed with minor gains, but it traded in a 15-16 cent range on...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
The only way for Argentina to be competitive in the current global corn market is to sell corn via combos (corn with meal). Presently, the country can offe...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
The Russian Ministry of Agriculture reported that 10.73 MMT of grain were exported as of 24 September 2014 and from the beginning of MY 2014/15 (26.6 perce...
Market Commentary
Besides the ongoing anticipation of huge crop production and building stocks, markets ran into headwinds from outside factors as well today. General Commen...
USDA’s 1 September Stocks Report
If there is a surprise in the stocks reported today, it is the extremely tight ending 2013/14 soybean stocks of 92 million bushels, the lowest ending soybe...
Oilseed Highlights
The Chinese government's refusal to approve the two new biotech soybean events was known to U.S. soybean growers and officials in the biotech industry at l...
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
Tunisia's government reported that the 2014 grain crop is up by about 80 percent at 2.34 MMT. It was also noted that there will be a very significant drop...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
End of the Fiscal Year Snapshot
The short-term snapshot paints a rosy scenario for the federal budget with a lowered deficit, growing economy and strong revenues. However, if the current...
Trade Policy Realities
EU Trade Commissioner-designate Cecilia Malmström told an EU Parliament panel yesterday that the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP)...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Russian and Ukrainian wheat has lost competitiveness to the French, German, Polish and other Baltic origins. Russia has exported about 10 MMT of wheat sinc...
USDA Quarterly Stocks Report
These quarterly stocks numbers have been critical market factors over the past several years when corn, soybean and wheat supplies were very tight. That wi...
Money Wasted; Pandering; Confusion; Smearing
The Observer reports Chinese President Xi Jinping declaring that his country must boldly pursue agricultural biotechnology and not allow foreign companies...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Putting the Squeeze on Switchgrass?
Most cellulosic ethanol today is made from crop residue as corn stover and wheat stalks are easily coprocessed at current corn ethanol plant locations. Swi...
China In-Country Analysis
At a recent national seed conference in China, it was indicated that a new seed law is under development that will focus on amendment of the PRV, seed labe...
Market Commentary
Today's higher price action in the nearby November soybean contracts is likely continue in the short term, irrespective of the contents of tomorrow's USDA...
Farm Bill Sign Up to Begin Next Week
Farmers will have until midwinter to complete the update of base acres and make their one-time irrevocable decision on whether to enroll in the Price Loss...
RFS; Biotech Wheat; Food Disease
While foodies pursue the newest modern food to pillory and the latest ancient orphan crop to ordain with faddism, the more serious participants in food res...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
The government of India (GOI) released the food grain production data last week, and estimates indicate the 2014/15 kharif production at 120.27 MMT, a 6.94...
Market Commentary
Markets started the night session little changed, but the soy complex eventually worked lower and again set new contract lows in the process. Good weather...
Looking for “Minor” New Crop Bids
The minor crops will have the advantage in the 2015 growing season as farmers are again looking for alternatives to corn, soybeans and wheat. However, the...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Canada and Korea Sign FTA
Trade talks have been on-again/off-again since 2008. In fact, Canadian beef regained access to Korea in 2012 after a ban due to bovine spongiform encephalo...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Oilseed Highlights
The general outlook for China's animal protein and feed sectors over the next year is positive. The industry is confident the lower feed prices will result...
Oilseed Highlights
The general outlook for China's animal protein and feed sectors over the next year is positive. The industry is confident the lower feed prices will result...
Cycles
Since commodity prices have moved up and down in a cyclical fashion as long as prices have been recorded, there has developed a cottage industry of economi...
Market Commentary
Any semblance of yesterday's mini-rally disappeared during the day session that once again saw the nearby contracts for corn, soybeans and Chicago wheat si...
Yen; Breakout; Labeling
Brazilian presidential candidate Marina Silva is an environmentalist in a highly protectionist country, and yet she appears ready to break the mold on her...
Market Commentary
Surprisingly, wheat was the market's leader today. More specifically, it was Chicago wheat leading the way after posting new contract lows and the lowest p...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Ukraine's Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food reported that the country has exported 7.4 MMT of grain as of 19 September 2014 and from the beginning of MY...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange recently toured the region south of Buenos Aires and estimates that 150,000 hectares have been entirely lost to flooding. T...
Blistering; Arbitrage; Named; Trends
In a blistering attack, 90 scientists reportedly sent a letter to President Obama urging him to make FDA decide one way or another on AquaBounty's nearly t...
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
Egypt's GASC had a very busy week with two tenders and surprising purchases of wheat from France and the U.S. It bought 180,000 MT of French wheat at an av...
Irony or Cynicism; Reeducation; Poison
New Delhi is single-handedly blocking implementation of a Trade Facilitation Agreement (TFA) that is designed to reduce barriers to trade with the very cou...
Oilseed Highlights
The large rise in China's soymeal exports to nearby markets has been mostly due to the lack of availability this year of the less expensive Indian soymeal...
Market Commentary
Corn futures traded fractionally higher before turning down again. Soybean futures prices traded both sides of unchanged and were actually higher during mu...
Searching for Demand
One role that the market must play is to discover how low prices must drop to uncover demand. Obviously, this becomes more difficult when supplies are risi...
Republican Senate Means Very Different Ag Committee
There will be five current committee members retiring at the end of 2014, three Democrats and two Republicans. With a change in party control, the Republic...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Farmers in Romania and Bulgaria refuse to sell wheat at the current export parity, and the only trades reported in the domestic market are purchases from l...
Market Commentary
Soybeans set new contract lows today by a wide margin, dropping to $9.34. Wheat stabilized on news that Egypt had purchased a cargo of U.S. wheat for the f...
Farm Program Budget Numbers Growing
It is difficult to predict what the final farm program payments will be as based on harvest prices, contract prices, acres harvested and the like, but the...
TPP Closeout; Pot and Alcohol Votes
Japanese Economy Minister and lead Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) negotiator Akira Amari will spend the next couple of days with his U.S. counterpart, Mic...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
A Few More Things to Keep You Up at Night
The market is assuming another record Brazilian soybean crop in 2015, based on more planted acres and another super yield. One potential impediment to this...
China In-Country Analysis
The majority of China's soybean crushers are competitively keeping their plants' utilization rates up as available soybean stocks at the 20 major seaports...
Market Commentary
USDA announced additional export sales of corn and soybeans today, but the market paid scant attention to those announcements. Instead, the focus continues...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Non-GM canola seed has been introduced in India by private seed companies. In 2013/14 40,000 acres of land was put under canola seed in Northern India, a f...
Do Low Prices Mean Big Crop Insurance Payments?
There is a misconception that the revenue protection insurance program guarantees a price. It does not. It does, however, guarantee minimum dollars per acr...
Legislative Wrap Up for 2014
The stage is set for members of Congress to return to their states and districts for campaigning. Republicans who control the House will highlight the bill...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Oilseed Highlights
There is word that soymeal is in very short supply across the Midwest because crushers simply cannot acquire the soybeans they want to process. Several pro...
Cattle and Beef Halfway Through 2014
Beef production for the first half of the year was just over 12 billion pounds and is projected at 24.5 billion pounds for the year, which would be the sma...
Scottish Fantasies; TPA or Not
A review of statements by the "Yes" campaign and others leaves a confusing picture of Scottish agricultural policy as we await the results of today's seces...
Market Commentary
Weather forecasts for the Corn Belt and northern plains look warm and dry and we are on the eve of record U.S. corn and soybean harvests. The only question...
Market Commentary
Market news remains tough to find. The market is marking time until the corn and soybean harvests reach the Corn Belt. So far, yields across the Delta and...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
The only new crop commodity in Argentina that is operating with a semblance of normalcy (but with scarce volume) is soybeans. Argentine farmers have alread...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Biotech Religion; WTO’s Role; CFTC Punishment
Following the NAS's two-day agricultural biotechnology conference, one biotech industry rep lamented that it will take two years for a report to be drafted...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Ukraine's State Statistic Service reports that total stocks of grain in the Ukrainian enterprises that store and process grain amounted to 23.4 MMT on 1 Se...
U.S. Government Funding Solution
Federal funding runs out exactly two weeks from today. Both sides of the Congressional aisle reportedly want a “clean” CR, meaning no extraneous provisions...
Scottish Signals; Wave or Gridlock
Recent events are proving wrong the notion that history leads us to a fully integrated and borderless world. The march of history is uneven, and thus globa...
Oilseed Highlights
Traders say China's soybean crushers currently are losing as much as $65 on every ton they process. They claim the poor margins are a result of China's slo...
Market Commentary
Today's market rally was caused by the release of the USDA/FSA acreage numbers that (again) suggest the USDA/NASS acreage estimates are too big. The big qu...
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
Of great concern to wheat buyers in the region is the quality of France's wheat supply this season. It has been estimated that in excess of 50 percent of t...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
FSA September Acreage Numbers Release Brings More Confusion
Regardless of how you view and asses these different acreage estimates, they will impact the final crop production estimates and they strongly suggest smal...
Little Frost Damage, Better Weather Ahead
The markets were firm last Friday just in case it got colder across a wider area than expected, but that didn't happen. It is possible that as the week rol...
Commodity Risk in QE Easing
The Fed's easy money policy has not sparked inflation to date, but more effectively it served as a cushion for the lack of risk taking in an uncertain econ...
Market Commentary
Weather across the Corn Belt and northern plains looks nearly perfect for the next two weeks and maybe beyond. Perfect is warm temperatures and below-norma...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Farmers in Bulgaria and Romania will start planting winter wheat in the coming weeks, and planting conditions are optimal. The soil moisture is abundant af...
China In-Country Analysis
Recently released economic indicators imply that the economic recovery in China is struggling, which could reduce protein consumption and drive down the de...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Ironies; Dribble; Sino-Phobia
The U.S. National Academy of Sciences' Committee on Genetically Engineered Crops held its first of many planned public input sessions to build background f...
Agricultural Lenders Are Getting Spooked
The message is that agricultural lenders are more than a little worried about the rapid and steep decline in prices as well as the resulting destruction to...
Tidbits on Biofuels
The American Petroleum Institute (API) is worried that the administration is considering E85 as a way to increase the proposed 2014 Renewable Fuel Standard...
Market Commentary
Overnight markets were mixed to just slightly higher. Weather beyond this weekend across the country looks warmer and dry, and that is exactly what the cro...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
India is the world's second-largest rice producer and has huge surplus stocks in warehouses. After a 30-year gap, however, GOI will be importing rice this...
European Double Toil and Trouble
EU President-elect Jean-Claude Juncker has asked Commissioner-designate for Health and Food Safety Vytenis Andriukaitis to conduct a six-month review of th...
Market Commentary
Today USDA published the first WASDE for the 2014/15 crop year for both corn and soybeans, and the report was more bearish than the average of market expec...
Pork and TPP
The U.S. National Pork Producer Council (NPPC) has issued a statement to the entire group of negotiators involved with the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP)...
Oilseed Highlights
Stoller Enterprises, a Houston-based agronomic firm, announced yesterday that it was able to harvest 214.7 bushels of soybeans per acre (14.44 MT/hectare)...
Business Opportunity in the Global Wheat Market
The writing is on the wall that wheat export opportunities to Asian countries are likely to rise, especially for any global producer of a consistent produc...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Out-Liars in the Policy Debate
The Pesticide Action Network (PAN) of North America has been called out for trying to undermine the credibility of a National Research Council conference a...
Market Commentary
After three down days in a row, the corn market finally managed a positive close even if only by a penny or so as the market awaits tomorrow's report. The...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
EU Governance; Cellulosic Amateurishness
The cellulosic ethanol industry would not exist if not for the mandate by the U.S. government that its otherwise uneconomic product be used by American con...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Ukraine's 2014 grain production is expected to total 58.5 MMT, 7 percent less than in 2013. This includes 21 MMT of wheat, 7.9 MMT of barley and 27.8 MMT o...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentine farmer are heading into the corn planting season, and expectations are that more acreage will be planted early as this past year's strategy of do...
Budget Savings from Crop Insurance Premium Subsidies
According to the GAO, reducing premium subsidies for revenue policies could potentially result in hundreds of millions of dollars in annual budgetary savin...
Checkoff Trouble; Antimonopoly Guise
India has long manipulated its food and agriculture market in an effort to protect inefficient producers while concurrently feeding its hungry. However, no...
Market Commentary
Corn, wheat and soybean futures prices all posted new contract lows during the day session today in slow trade. Momentum following funds continued to sell...
To Label or Not To Label?
Proponents of GM food labeling avoid attacking GMOs themselves. In an effort to evade having to contend with the overwhelming weight of the science that de...
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
Along with Egypt's new wheat relationship with Russia, there is news that it will have a direct freight service to Black Sea Russia in order to facilitate...
Oilseed Highlights
A California company announced this week that it has successfully developed a hybrid jatropha variety which has high yield, rapid time maturity and a non-t...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Frost Is in the Air
Temperatures across nearly all of western Canada and portions of the Northern Plains will drop to 15-25 degrees below normal by the middle of this week. Th...
Politics to Dominate Next Three Weeks’ Legislative Agenda
With the congressional midterm elections in the offing, political calculations are obviously at the root of everything. While this should prove to be a rau...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Ukrainian feed wheat is by far the cheapest origin at $192/MT FOB as the Romanian/Bulgarian is at least $10/MT higher. French feed wheat is nominally aroun...
Market Commentary
Wheat struggled with corn and soybeans during the first half of today's session, but the selling seemed to dry up before noon.There was actually light buyi...
China In-Country Analysis
China's Ministry of Agriculture (MOA) recently announced that biotech applications can be submitted online effective 1 September as part of its efforts to...
Agency Fixes
Timothy Massad is showing that he is a completely different chair of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) than his predecessor as he has announc...
Letters on India
India's agricultural exports are growing fast, and it is not the result of having negotiated reciprocal trade liberalization agreements. Its average applie...
The U.S. Position in the World of Shale Formation Reserves
The benefit of the shale and tight oil formations is that with the new technology available to recover gas and oil from these sources, large volumes can qu...
Canadian Stocks and Other Issues
Last year's Canadian crops blew away previous production records by an incredibly wide margin. The 2014 crop production estimates are back to more normal l...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
As more of India's population consumes meat, particularly chicken, the country's poultry industry would like to reduce production as a means to increase pr...
Market Commentary
With the exception of soyoil, the soy complex gave us a small bounce overnight and this morning. The November contract set new contract lows yesterday at $...
Market Commentary
The soy complex, corn, Chicago wheat and MGE wheat all closed lower. Once again November soybeans, December corn and Chicago December wheat all set fresh c...
The Politics of Corn
We used to refer to wheat as the "political grain." However, it seems to have now been replaced by corn, which by any measurement is the largest and most i...
Europe; Africa, Climate and Sugar
The U.S. dollar will be driven higher by inverse policies whereby Europe and Japan are increasing liquidity while the Federal Reserve is ending quantitativ...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
PEDv Vaccine Approved
Based on field trials, USDA has granted a conditional license for a vaccine developed by Zoetis to prevent Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea virus (PEDv). Continue...
Oilseed Highlights
The Malaysian government today exempted all exports of crude palm oil from its 4.5 percent export tax for the months of September and October. Palm oil exp...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russia's agriculture ministry is planning to buy 4-4.5 MMT during the grain market interventions in the second half of September. These purchases are inten...
Hopes and Doubts
Germany is considered the strength of Europe, but if its supermarkets reflect the will of the people, the future seems dull. The country's top supermarkets...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
While Argentine farmers retain a substantial volume of soybeans as a hedge against current economic conditions, lower FOB prices may actually force them to...
Market Commentary
Today was the day that grain and soy prices broke out of the relatively narrow price bands in which they had been stuck for the past month. The breakout to...
Market Commentary
Corn prices chewed back and forth in a narrow 5-cent range before closing slightly lower, while the soy complex was an island of strength among commodities...
Oilseed Highlights
One of the issues certain to see a great deal of attention in Argentina's presidential election next year is the country's high export taxes on soybeans, w...
Asia-Pacific Trade Policy
India put the final nail in the coffin of the WTO's Doha Round with its upending of the Bali agreement from last year. This has left plurilateral pre...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Budget Outlook through 2024
Revenues are expected to increase by about 8 percent this year versus last year to $3 trillion. They will rise from all major sources, including individual...
Happy New Year, Soybeans!
The 2013/14 U.S. soybean crop year was a notable one for the soybean industry, and the new 2014/15 U.S. soybean year promises to be memorable as well.Lest...
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
Morocco's total 2014 grain production is expected to be down by about 30 percent versus a year ago with barley showing the largest decrease at 37 percent...
APHIS Priorities; Non Sequitor
U.S. cattlemen are upset that USDA's Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) has proposed designating Argentina's Patagonia region as free of fo...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
The only markets that could hold gains today were September soybean and soymeal futures. Corn and wheat traded lower most of today's session with the new c...
Farm Bill’s New Program Signup Starts with Dairy
USDA announced that the signup for the new Dairy Margin Protection Program (DMP) will begin 2 September and run through 28 November. It will allow farmers...
Things You Hear at Farm Shows
Some of the comments you read following these shows are insightful, while others make little sense. There are also a few that fit both categories.The late...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
There have been discussions about conducting an audit of the Food Corporation of India (FCI), which does not know how many stocks it is actually holding. I...
Ukraine and Grain
From the start of Ukraine's 2014/15 crop year on 1 July until 27 August, the country has exported a hefty volume of grains. However, the new southeastern f...
Policy Choices and Prospects
A recent survey asking which of the world's various farm policies is "the best" produced quite a strong response. Our most recent online survey showed a c...
Oilseed Highlights
Reports out of China indicate some firms there have recently defaulted on palm oil purchases due to banks discontinuing loans. The one most notably impacte...
WTO COOL Ruling Reportedly Against U.S.
Reports indicate that the WTO has once again ruled against the U.S. on country of origin labeling (COOL) and that Canada and Mexico may impose retaliatory...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
Wheat led the way, and Chicago wheat traded above its 50-day moving average for the first time in three months. Corn futures closed up mostly 3-4 cents und...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
As of 20 August 2014 and from the beginning of MY 2014/15, Russia exported 5.857 MMT of grains (22.7 percent more than during the same period in the previo...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentine farmers remain frustrated with their government's policies that are causing a consistent decline in the planting of grains (corn, wheat, barley)...