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Market Commentary

Today's markets were all about wheat, and the corn market was towed higher by its mega-rally. However, the strength of the grains did not transfer very wel...

COOL Decision by Monday

The WTO has set a deadline of 18 May for its final decision on the U.S. appeal regarding country-of-origin labeling (COOL). If the appeal is rejected, the...

Parsing Supply and Demand

It is often said that supply/demand analysis for grains and oilseeds is far more art than science. Of course, the farther into the future the forecasts of...

Oilseed Highlights

The U.S. has long been the world's largest soybean-producing country, but South America now appears to have supplanted it.as the global residual supplier...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Soybeans would seem poised for an imminent selloff, but Argentina's farmers are being motivated to retain their large harvest by the futures market there t...

Market Commentary

Following yesterday's WASDE release, optimistic viewpoints allowed grain and soy markets to make a modest recovery today. Soybean and corn prices were up,...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Organic Speech; Fast Track and Jobs

The U.S. organic foods industry formally petitioned USDA this week to initiate a research and promotion program for organic, but its goals may be different...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

With sufficient stocks available and a strengthening national currency, Ukraine's feed grain prices have decreased both domestically as well as on a few ex...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

TPA Vote Meaning; Transatlantic Differences

It was all politics around the Trade Promotion Authority (TPA) bill on Capitol Hill today as a cloture vote to end debate on it fell short, bringing differ...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

With domestic food price inflation approaching close to 10 percent, Egypt is using $6 billion received from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the UAE to make more&n...

Market Commentary

Today's markets were all about the May WASDE released today by USDA. Corn futures traded both sides in about an 8-cent range before closing with just fract...

Reigning in the Fed

While monetary policy and the Federal Reserve itself are on the radar screen of policy makers who follow financial issues, the entire subject is still some...

Oilseed Highlights

USDA's May 2015 supply and distribution report was released today, which includes the first estimates for MY 2015/16. Many changes are likely over the next...

The May 2015 WASDE

We are not sure that each year's May issue is always the most important of the springtime WASDE reports. However, they are still always very interesting an...

China In-Country Analysis

China's state corn purchase program for temporary reserves was estimated at around 83.4 MMT as of 30 April, a significant change from last year. Meanwhile,...

Market Commentary

Several factors combined to pressure corn again today. Wheat lumbered along in step with the corn market, while its weekly export inspections were in line...

Miscellaneous Segments of Note

As the EU is expanding its prohibitive environment for GMOs by seeking to allow individual member states to decline their otherwise safe use and GMO labeli...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

The EU allocated 273,000 MT of wheat export licenses last week, bringing the total to 28 MMT. Carryout stocks wil be significantly different this year, whi...

USDA 2015/16 Estimates Start Tomorrow

About the only thing certain about tomorrow's numbers is that we believe USDA will use the 31 March planting intentions numbers for acres, while the yield...

Crude Oil Exports and the Future of the U.S. Energy Sector

With the debate over lifting the ban on the export of crude oil becoming more pertinent, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) commissioned a st...

More Things to Keep You Up at Night

The Kansas crop tour wrapped last night with participants seemingly surprised and disappointed by the results. The trouble today is that few people actuall...

Biofuels Roundup

With gasoline prices quite high in Brazil as a result of government actions, ethanol has become more attractive to motorists there in a country where the a...

Lag Effect in Biofuel Policy

As usual, policymakers and markets are out of sync with the latest case being renewable fuel mandates and bearish grain markets.As usual, policymakers and...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Market Commentary

Markets didn't produce much change overnight. Funds are still holding massive (record) short positions in wheat, and they were small buyers to end this wee...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Although GOI provided an incentive to ethanol manufacturers and an exemption from the 12.36 percent excise duty, the availability of cost-effective molasse...

Ag Review: Water Around The Globe

Water Solution at Hand There are resource constraints on earth, but water is not one of them. Likely Future Conflicts over Water Safe water for human consu...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Red Meat Exports

According to the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF), the muscle cut ratio of March pork exports was the largest percentage since July 2013, while that for...

Oilseed Highlights

Indonesia has taken action to support further development of the biodiesel sector with the goal of expanding domestic production and consumption of biodies...

Obama Allowing Mandatory GMO Labels

While USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack charged this week that the EU threatens global food security with its proposed opt-out policy regarding GM crop imports, t...

Some Ideas Never Die

Several current factors may make a merger of the SEC and CFTC seem conceptually more appealing that it used to be. However, there are still great differenc...

Market Commentary

Grains and the soy complex prices were mixed, but not much changed overnight. They weakened, though, during the day session as the U.S. dollar strengthened...

Contrasts; No Worries

The U.S., Australia and New Zealand have been pushing Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) partners to adopt a common position on the geographic indicators (GIs...

Market Commentary

The sharp correction of the U.S. dollar against the value of other major currencies accelerated today. Meanwhile, the corn market was torn between the stro...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

The volume of Ukrainian vegetable and animal product exports to the EU during January-March 2015 showed a significant change. Vegetable product exports wer...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

The common expectation at the recent Wheat Congress in Argentina is that market inefficiencies will improve once there is a new government, but producers'...

The Merry Month of May

Just how merry the month of May turns out to be for producers and consumers of grains, soybeans and their products depends to some degree on the prices of...

Politics of Trade

The politics around congressional consideration of Trade Promotion Authority (TPA) and, subsequently, the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) is becoming quite...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

The difficulties in Syria have caused a change in regional shipping patterns as grain cargoes, which in the past would have enterd Syria's ports for discha...

Market Commentary

The soy complex was today's market leader, and soyoil futures set the pace. The catalyst has been a major move in the world edible oil market by China. Gen...

Oilseed Highlights

A union representing workers at 20 percent of Argentina's soybean processors went on strike today demanding higher wages. A major union representing truck...

COOL: High Costs, Low Return

The 2014 Farm Bill required that USDA's Office of Chief Economist (OCE) provide Congress with an economic analysis of the impact of mandatory country-of-or...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

House Biofuels Caucus Recruiting Members

Leadership of the bipartisan caucus has sent a letter to other members of Congress asking that they join the group to support renewable energy production t...

The Market Struggles for News

The market's problem continues to be adequate supplies of wheat and feed grains around the world and few worthy weather issues to talk about as the spring...

China In-Country Analysis

With the planting margin spread between corn and soybeans steadily widening, Chinese farmers have been less willing to dedicate land to the latter crop. A...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

While buying interest in Russia's wheat is below offer prices, there is talk in the market that the government there could lift the export tax as early as...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Market Commentary

The market was expecting today's crop progress numbers to show that 50 percent of the U.S. corn acreage has been planted, but the total was higher. Meanwhi...

Wet Blanket; More Lunacy; Correctives

The U.S. House appears ready to move on legislation to correct a couple of unhelpful issues in the agriculture market. One bill would pre-empt state labeli...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Market Commentary

Wheat tried to trade higher off and on today, and Chicago July did show gains of 5-6 cents at one point. Meanwhile, the soybean market followed yesterday's...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

In spite of the contentious issues of farmer suicides, their inability to receive full price for their production and the fact that 60 percent of India's p...

Kansas Wheat Tour Next Week

With only one potentially significant crop production problem facing the U.S. earlier this spring, next week's Kansas crop tour might provide some interest...

Newspaper Hypocrisy; WOTUS Wrong

The Washington Post criticized the Chipotle restaurant chain yesterday for pandering to the unfounded fears of consumers seeking to avoid GMOs, so why are...

Congress Proposes Block of WOTUS Rule

While the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee has passed a bill that would block implementation of the WOTUS rule, a bipartisan group of sena...

More Avian Influenza: Congress Urges Emergency Spending

The leadership of the House and Senate Agriculture Committees is urging USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack to transfer funds from the Commodity Credit Corporation...

Market Commentary

Confidence that the Argentine labor situation will quickly be resolved along with weakening world grain prices seemed to trump a surprisingly friendly week...

Oilseed Highlights

Many in the market see today's soybean prices as low versus the highs of the last three years. Perhaps many of the new players in futures markets do not re...

Size and Efficiency

The expansion in container ship size, capacity and efficiency is a reflection of free trade and its benefits. However, growth in the size of these vessels...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Legislative Reversal; Economic Blah

The ink was barely dry on a positive spin for Trade Promotion Authority (TPA) surrounding this week's visit to Washington by Japanese Prime Minister Shinzō...

Japan Darts Past Europe; Tricking the Old

It is no surprise why the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) is about to come to fruition and TTIP looks like mostly many years of meetings and a modest outco...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

While Russia's grain exports have substanially increased overall in the current marketing year, there have been other contrary changes in the volume of whe...

Market Commentary

Soybean prices were supported by the weaker U.S. dollar and the potential for labor problems in Argentina as farmers, processors and exporters try to handl...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

The strengthening of the real is encouraging Brazilian soybean producers to market slowly. Meanwhile, Chinese buyers seem primarily interested in purchasin...

Market Commentary

The day session saw wheat futures swinging higher after setting new lows, and soybeans running up 15-16 cents before retreating late to close with only mod...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

It is being reported in London that the major commodity houses are lining up to do business in Iran.This could be a very  good opportunity to supply g...

A Few Idle Thoughts

We are about to enter that annual transition period between the old crop cycle and the new one. Supply/demand tensions have provided a considerable degree...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Oilseed Highlights

If the EU proposal to allow member states to individually opt out of allowing the importation and consumption of biotech crops is adopted, there could be s...

Budget Conference Report Likely This Week

Both the House and Senate budgets look to boost defense spending, while one of the other outcomes from the budget conference negotiations is related to whe...

Successful Regular Order; GMO Stunts

While the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee has been one of the most politically contentious with the two parties at wide odds on environmental...

Ownership in the Digital Age Issue Hits Agriculture

One of the sleeper issues in the U.S. and global economy moving forward is privacy and proprietorship of information. This concern has arisen in various fo...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Losing Scale; Missing; Notables

The opportunity that has been missed in the current trade debate by Republicans and Democrats alike is the reform and boosting of worker retraining. Contra...

China In-Country Analysis

China's Ministry of Agriculture unveiled the country's 2015-2024 outlook last week with projections and analysis on supply, demand, exports and imports for...

Dust to Dust: The CWB Goes Away Again

Bunge Canada's recent purchase of the Canadian Wheat Board concludes the second chapter in its demise since the Canadian government  attempted to turn...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

With rising prospects for quite a good wheat crop, Russia's export tax should logically be lifted 1 July at the latest. However, that is still uncertain du...

Market Commentary

The soybean market continues to have legs of its own. Meanwhile, funds are short in excess of 500 million bushels of wheat futures, and they added to that...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Avian Influenza Situation Update by the Numbers

The strains, which are multiple, mutate readily and are named after the two protein groups in the virus. The rate of outbreak has increased over the past w...

TTIP Pretense; GMO Humor; Sustainability

Part of this week's ninth round of TTIP negotiations, yesterday's public session in New York, had American activist groups acting like their transatlantic...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

The recent weather patterns in India have affected the rabi corn harvest and the wheat crop. As a result, there are far-reaching implications domestically...

Show Me the Weather

Today's extended weather maps and the pattern that is developing should impact talk of planting delays across the Corn Belt.Today's extended weather maps f...

Market Commentary

Managed money remains heavily short wheat, corn and soybeans.  Meanwhile, the focus of today's wheat markets was more on planting progress in the week...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Oilseed Highlights

Statistics Canada today released the outcome of a planting intentions survey conducted 18-31 March that showed a surprising result regarding Canadian farme...

Market Commentary

Weekly export sales for corn and wheat were slightly better than expected, and this helped trigger something of an early rally for futures prices during da...

Souljah Opportunity; Labor Dissed; Unsweetening

During a markup session before the Senate Finance Committee last night, Senate Democrats chose to help President Obama on trade and only pay lip service to...

Tough Times for Index Funds

After being blamed in the past for artificially pushing grain prices to very high levels, index funds have pretty much slipped away from public attention t...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Both Russia and Ukraine have reported domestic grain stock volumes that have notably changed from a year ago. Meanwhile, the board chairman of Cherkizovo G...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

While the Argentine government has not  released any additional wheat export licenses, it did make an announcement in this election year regarding far...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Big Test for TPA; Uniquely Ag

The U.S. Supreme Court heard arguments in Horne v. Department of Agriculture (USDA), and the justices learned once again that agriculture is treated unique...

Market Commentary

Corn futures prices traded in less than a 5-cent range before closing fractionally lower. Funds and other noncommercials holding long positions in May corn...

Oilseed Highlights

China's Ministry of Agriculture published a report today that predicts the country's annual soybean imports will rise by 15.8 percent  between now and...

Expressing Market Opinions

Nearly all of us who watch and trade in commodity futures markets eventually develop an opinion about the direction prices will take. These are called futu...

Cuba Ag Trade: Potential and Politics

One of the somewhat surprising issues to gain traction this year in Congress has been the status of Cuba trade and diplomatic relations.One of the somewhat...

Market Commentary

It has been a slow Tuesday for grain and soy futures markets with corn and soy prices unable to hang on to yesterday's gains. Much of the market's chatter...

Transatlantic Focus; Dems on Trade

While Europeans are in the U.S. pushing hard for acceptance of geographic indicators (GIs) as part of the TTIP negotiations, one potential reason why the U...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

Egypt has faced a much stronger outbreak of avian flu this year in small village flocks, which experts attribute to a specific factor. While none have been...

Trade Rhetoric; Backward Food

Now that there is a bill, the two major congressional committees with jurisdiction over trade plan hearings in the next two days on Trade Promotion Authori...

House Votes to Repeal Estate Tax

Farm groups are urging the Senate to also address an estate tax repeal, and Senator John Thune (R-South Dakota) has introduced a companion bill to the Hous...

Biodiesel Challenge; Available Land Implications

The Minnesota Trucking Association and others filed a lawsuit in U.S. District court last Friday that alleges that state's mandate to use a 10 percent biod...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

China In-Country Analysis

A Chinese trading company was found last week to have illegally imported more than 6,000 MT of frozen meat worth about 345 million yuan ($55.6 million). Th...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

Even though the new crop (July/August) 12.5 percent protein Russian/Ukrainian wheat is offered at $195/MT FOB, a price that is historically attractive at b...

Market Commentary

Short covering continued across the soybean futures today. Most analysts are bearish, based on the forecasts for record world ending supplies. The problem...

Alternative Diesel Tax Credit

On 15 April, the U.S. Senate Finance Committee gathered a number of recommendations for comprehensive tax reform that could potentially be considered this...

The State of Wheat

Even though it didn't seem like there was much of any weather premium in the market before this week's rainfall, the speculative trade evidently felt there...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Misdirected Aid; Nonreciprocals; Status Quo

The Chicago Council on Global Affairs has issued a report ("Healthy Food for a Healthy World") calling on U.S. policy makers to save the world from starvat...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

 Avian flu has again surfaced in India as it erupted in the heart of the poultry belt in Telangana, which supplies eggs to eastern areas of the countr...

Market Commentary

Markets did absolutely nothing overnight and started that way this morning. Prices were little changed in corn, wheat and soybeans until just after 10:30 a...

TPA Dissected; Trade Doublespeak; Organic Trash Talk

A bipartisan, bicameral bill authorizing Trade Promotion Authority (TPA), "The Bipartisan Congressional Trade Priorities and Accountability Act of 2015," w...

Oilseed Highlights

Argentine farm organizations yesterday asked soy exporters to stop inspecting cargoes for bootleg biotech soybean events. The exporting firms have been doi...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Attacks on Common Sense

There have been many occasions when reason and common sense have been swept aside by emotion, demagoguery and political expediency. Two current examples wi...

Market Commentary

Corn closes were mixed, and soybean prices were higher. The state of play in today's market can be described by noting that not one soybean or corn contrac...

European Dairy without Quotas

A more than 30-year old system of national quotas for milk production in Europe ended last month and is expected to change the dairy market across the glob...

Market Commentary

There were quite a number of sometimes contradictory factors for grain and soy market traders to chew on today, including the National Oilseed Processors A...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

As Russia reports a substantial increase in grain exports thus far in MY 2014/15 compared to a year ago, Rusagrotrans has downwardly revised its forecast f...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

The anticipation of Argentina's government distributing additional export licenses for corn and wheat is presently having little to no effect on spot corn...

Burning Witches Redux

American politicians are no more averse to wrongheaded public pressure than their European counterparts – witness the current opposition to Trade Promotion...

When Will the Fed Increase Interest Rates?

The overwhelming consensus is the Fed will raise interest rates, but the open question regards when. Following the Federal Reserve meeting in March, there...

Market Commentary

Grain and soy futures prices never go in the same direction all of the time. This is the truism that supports the phenomenon known as Turnaround Tuesday –...

Abe versus Xi; TPA Hardball; Trans

The EU's precautionary principle has kept Brussels well ahead of Washington in the issuance of restrictions against potentially frightening things. Thus, i...

Corn Questions

Some questions still remain to be answered concerning the current 2014/15 corn situation. One of those pertains to the size of Brazil's crop, and another r...

Oilseed Highlights

There are now reports the EU will soon propose options to deal with biotech crops. One under consideration would allow EU member countries to decide indivi...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

Pakistani customs officials have confiscated shipments from Ukraine, Russia and Moldova, claiming there are quality issues. The latest seizure was reported...

USDA to Expand Supplemental Coverage Option

Coverage under SCO is available in 2015 for a few select crops in a few designated counties. Specific requirements must also be met, but there will be chan...

Not So Simple Solutions

McKinsey & Company ranks high amongst major management consulting companies, but even it appears to struggle with the complexity of the agrifood system...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

U.S. Soybean Exports Almost Finished

What happened to the "demand destruction" that several years of very high prices were supposed to have wrought on the markets?Today's weekly export inspect...

China In-Country Analysis

While the drop in China's live pig and sow inventories clearly has propped up prices, the continued upward trend might actually decelerate due to downstrea...

Market Commentary

There was the smell of rain in the air across the western reaches of the U.S. hard red winter wheat region, and that was enough to bring another major roun...

RFS; Jurisdiction; Economy

As officials currently in charge of the EU are increasingly looking for ways to devolve power to the member states, including over GMOs, Washington is cons...

More Things to Keep You Up at Night

The last major USDA reports are behind us until the 30 June acreage and quarterly stocks updates. We're back to weather first and demand second, but there...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

The California Drought and Agriculture

California is in a major drought situation and now under emergency restrictions declared by Governor Gerry Brown. While these exempt agriculture, which has...

Market Commentary

Markets were quiet overnight with corn, soybeans and wheat trading both sides in light volume. Wheat popped back today with some decent gains, while soybea...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

With its oil meals priced high, India has seen the level of exports impacted significantly, and the poultry sector there could benefit by importing supplie...

The April WASDE

USDA's April estimates of ending 2014/15 stocks, both for the U.S. and the world, probably command the greatest interest for grain traders and analysts.Eac...

Oilseed Highlights

Thailand's energy minister announced today that the government plans to change the current biodiesel blending requirement on 15 April  in an effort to...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Renationalization; Biofuel; Small and Unsafe

The pushback from EU member states to the detailed meddling by Brussels into everyday European life has its politicians scrambling to give capitals more au...

Market Commentary

Grain and soy futures headed lower overnight with soybeans leading the way, and prices stayed lower this morning ahead of the release of USDA's April WASDE...

Cases of Avian Influenza Discovered in Minnesota and Canada

All of the cases have been detected in the past month with five of those found since last week. The Minnesota farms are in a flyway for migratory birds, pu...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

 Argentine soybean quality is a concern this season as the first deliveries to the ports showed protein below 32.5 percent. This is a potentially seri...

Purity; Rapprochement; Spades

Few consumers are aware that organic food in the U.S. is made with synthetics and chemicals as that industry does not support labeling. However,  the...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Market Commentary

Amid the swinging U.S. dollar and crude oil, grain and soy prices were a sea of calm. Once again, prices traded a bit higher overnight, although it was not...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

The volume of Ukraine's rapeseed oil and meal exports has notably changed for the months July 2014-February 2015 against the same period a year ago as have...

Oilseed Highlights

In an effort to offset a huge decline in soymeal exports, India may be rebating a larger percent of the FOB export value to exporters. India Increases Soym...

Math; Prejudice; Pivot

According to some analysts, the logical "pivot to Asia" made by the Obama administration is in trouble without the TPP. Math and Trade U.S. Representative...

Ag Review: Screwy Currencies

Currency Valuation and Trade The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and the strong U.S. dollar weigh on commodity trading decisions. The TPP and a Pr...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

Syria and Italy are reportedly discussing a trade involving 100,000 MT of Syrian durum wheat for 100,000 MT of soft milling wheat. This type of countertrad...

The April WASDE and Beyond

The main question regarding U.S. corn and soybeans for the balance of the 2014/15 crop year is whether demand will be enough to achieve the levels foreseen...

Market Commentary

It is a story that has repeated with some frequency recently. Overnight trading in grains and the soy complex produces a price rally, but the rally effort...

More on WOTUS Rule

While the U.S. EPA and Army Corps of Engineers claim that jurisdictional water bodies are easily defined, a number of issues remain.Yesterday we wrote abou...

Burning Witches; No Chinese Surprise

The Agricultural Market Information Service (AMIS), set up as political cover for political leaders who failed to take notice of an impending food price sp...

WOTUS Rule to Go to OMB

As proposed, the "Water of the United States" (WOTUS) rule would dramatically expand the amount of wet areas that would become federally controlled. Given...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

China In-Country Analysis

Several factors are putting upward pressure on China's average pork prices. President Xi's decree that party officials implement an eight-point guide for o...

Market Commentary

It was another day that found it tough to explain why we had the major shifts in nearly every market. After opening slightly higher following the long East...

U.S. Hard Red Winter Wheat Crop Shrinking

Two elements of our 20 March analysis of the 2015 U.S. wheat outlook, which pegged hard red winter wheat production at 810 million bushels and total wheat...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

The Russian government is considering a possible extension of the wheat export tax beyond 30 June. If the tax is maintained through the 2015/16 campaign, i...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Antibiotics Back in the Crosshairs

USDA will focus on three specific areas in conjunction with the Obama administration's new National Action Plan for Combating Antibiotic-Resistant Bacteria...

There is a New Sheriff in Town

Exercising its new role under Dodd-Frank, the CFTC filed a civil lawsuit yesterday (1 April) in federal court charging Kraft Foods Group LLC and its affili...

Iran; GMO Prejudice; Fantasies (Local and Export)

The EU's already approved policy to allow member states to decide individually whether GM crops could be grown on their territory was viewed as a net posit...

Oilseed Highlights

The  Brazilian government's effort to re-evaluate 14 pesticides for possible bans has been ongoing for seven years and stymied by lawsuits as well as...

Market Commentary

Grain and soy markets saw a dual between poor weekly export sales and growing weather concerns ahead of a three-day weekend. Corn futures prices did bounce...

Market Commentary

We see today's upturn of grain and soy futures prices as acknowledgement that yesterday's stocks and prospective plantings really did little to change the...

Funding Pipedreams

The Environmental Working Group (EWG) correctly asserts in its new analysis, "Feeding the World – Without GMOs," that it is "possible" to feed the growing...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

The National Association of Exporters of Agricultural Products has requested that the Russian government cancel the wheat export duty midway through its ef...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

The export market for Argentine wheat improved this past week with some buyers from Brazil and Chile. Unfortunately, there is somewhat of a logistical prob...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

While Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan have signed a preliminary agreement regarding Nile water,  the major water source for farming in Egypt and Sudan, it i...

Market Commentary

The market's reputation for producing a volatile reaction to USDA March stocks and plantings report was well-maintained today. General Comments After a lon...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Oilseed Highlights

Today's USDA Stocks Report found total U.S. soybean supplies on 1 March did not quite meet the average analyst estimate but showed an impressive change aga...

Food Manufacturing Sector in the U.S. to Restructure?

The expected activity in the food sector is based on lowered commodity costs and increased economic growth in the U.S. Most financial analysts see an oppor...

USDA’s Acreage and Stocks Reports

Based on pre-report expectations, corn was supposed to be the market's bullish leader, while soybeans were to be further pressured by a large gain in plant...

Trade Policy Fables

Public Citizen is reporting that the Seattle City Council voted unanimously in opposition to Trade Promotion Authority (TPA). These are the elected leaders...

Market Commentary

Soybeans benefited from the fund short covering in the wheat market. Weekly export inspections were also (again) better than expected, and there was some c...

Status of Farm Bill Implementation

At a subcommittee hearing held last week on the farm bill implementation, different agency administrators reported on the current status of program enrollm...

The Big Show Starts Tomorrow – USDA Acreage & Stocks Reports

The corn and soybean acreage numbers (as always) have attracted the most attention and will be the initial focus of tomorrow's reports. There are a number...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

There are offers of Bulgarian, Romanian, Ukrainian and Russian wheat for April/May shipment at $207-216/MT FOB without close buying interests. There are al...

China In-Country Analysis

China's sorghum and barley imports continued to grow in February. The comparative price advantages of both with respect to domestic corn coupled with no qu...

Nudges; Judges; and Water

The Obama administration, under the lead of First Lady Michelle Obama, has made a laudable attempt at reducing obesity in the U.S. A new book now concludes...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

TPP Stakes; New GHG Risk; Food versus Fuel

Princeton University Research Scholar Tim Searchinger might minimally be called a pain in the backside to the ethanol industry for past statements. He and...

Indecision

With the Tuesday release of USDA's planting intention numbers, the large disparities between the corn quarterly stocks numbers and the trade guesses over t...

Market Commentary

The soy complex is where the selling was centered today, while wheat tried to recapture some of yesterday's big losses ahead of the weekend. Meanwhile, the...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices.\...

Senate Joins House In Passing Budget

The Republican congressional leadership is nearing one of its goals, passage of a joint budget resolution. With a statutory deadline of 15 April,  the...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Following the sudden rise in domestic corn prices, India's end users are considering imports. Although direct, duty-free corn importation is permitted, cer...

Oilseed Highlights

For the second week in a row, USDA's export inspections report indicated containers of soybeans for shipment to North Korea were inspected last week. Howev...

The Renewable Fuel Standard

The Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) was pushed by the Bush administration with wide bipartisan support in 2005 and 2007, but it demonstrates how risky and ev...

Market Commentary

The ongoing South American harvest and the possible increase in 2015 U.S. soybean acres in next week's report is a heavy load for the soybean market to car...

Animal and Meat Inventories

Several factors indicate that USDA's quarterly Hogs & Pigs Report, scheduled to be released tomorrow, will show a larger swine inventory. How much of a...

TPA Fight; Productivity

The fight over Trade Promotion Authority (TPA) on Capitol Hill is intensifying and becoming brutish. While both sides in the debate are claiming to have th...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Institutional; Blindness; Omission

While the House Agriculture Committee was receiving testimony 'mostly' advising government action to avoid retaliation for a WTO-illegal  country-of-o...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

It was reported that Russian wheat exports decreased 34 percent during 1 February-18 March (compared with the same period in 2014) after introduction of th...

Market Commentary

Today's relatively narrow futures trading ranges testify to the lack of fresh trading incentives as well as the market's cautious approach to next week's g...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Argentina is poised to harvest approximately 23 MMT of corn, and close to 12 MMT of that should be available for export, assuming the government is willing...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Speculating About U.S. Crop Acreage

Analytical speculation about the amounts of acreage that will be planted to specific crops began soon after the January reports, and there are numerous fac...

Commodities and the Canadian Election

The Canadian economy has been a winner during the commodities boom of recent years. With recent yearend figures now available, however, that appears to be...

Market Commentary

Other than outside factors that were largely ignored, grains and the soy complex had little to trade on today other than weather. Wheat reversed from the l...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

A tremendous amount of interest regarding investments in Egypt's agriculture was generated at a conference held there last week. Two key development agreem...

Oilseed Highlights

While participants at this week's 9th Asia Grain Transportation Conference are generally in an upbeat mood, there have been several questions regarding the...

Glyphosate; China Policy; Real Food

For foodies, some processed food with substitute ingredients can be bad and others can be good, depending on whether there is an agreeable social cause tha...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

Although old crop wheat on the Black Sea market is now offered at competitive levels versus French and German origins, demand is very difficult to find. Me...

House Ag Committee to Hold Five Hearings This Week

This week's ambitious hearing lineup adheres to what Chairman Michael Conway (R-Texas) suggested would be the committee's agenda for the year: CFTC reform,...

Market Commentary

Soybeans led today's push higher in the ag commodities with soybean futures gaining as much as 15-16 cents at one point. The buying was the result of anoth...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

More Things to Keep You Up at Night

There are several items that have been in the news recently and are worth thinking about before the planting season starts in earnest.This is the last full...

Hillary on Trade; Apples; CFTC

Given the outright hostility of labor unions and angst by liberals over the impact of free trade on the U.S. economy, Democratic presidential candidates ar...

China In-Country Analysis

A number of Chinese crushers have reportedly chosen to suspend operations temporarily for several reasons. Meanwhile, the average crush margin for imported...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Unseasonal precipitation across much of India is impacting many crops, particularly wheat, fruits and vegetables. In turn, that is expected to continue aff...

U.S. Wheat Outlook

We won't know what hard red spring wheat and durum acres will total until the 31 March USDA report. Opinions are mixed today with seed dealers continuing t...

Politicized Science; Costly Legislation

Rather than change the underlying offending Cargo Preference requirement, the U.S. government is proposing to pay $90 million annually to American-flagged...

How Much Water Does Avoiding Beef Save?

Arguments and exaggerations regarding water use are the lifeblood of a number of issues facing livestock today from those in animal agriculture to producer...

Market Commentary

Markets were quiet in overnight trade, but that changed radically when the U.S. dollar collapsed and crude oil surged sharply higher. This brought across-t...

Market Commentary

The grain and soy rally completely stalled out during the day session as the U.S. dollar continued to climb back from yesterday's beating. Soybean futures...

Oilseed Highlights

U.S. cottonseed crushing is forecast to decline in 2014/15 to the lowest level in 15 years. There are several reasons for this drop, and the situation may...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Broiler Exports Face Trifecta of Hurdles

Three main factors are impacting U.S. broiler exports, but chicken will also have to compete domestically with dropping pork prices. However, there are a f...

Plain English; Cockfights; Phobic

Congressional approval of Trade Promotion Authority (TPA) is at risk and the Obama White House is pulling out all of the stops. None of this will change th...

In Defense of Free Trade

The current politics of free trade are so complex that the basic issues involved sometimes get lost.One definition of free trade is that it allows me to fr...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

The Brazilian soybean basis is anticipated to soon decline, and that is a potential concern for Argentine soybean producers as their position is being stea...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Market Commentary

The Fed's apparent reluctance to raise interest rates caused a big slide in the U.S. dollar's value in late trade, although it still is near a 12-year high...

Lower Demand; Self-Sufficiency; TPP Proxy

Major food exporters are counting on growth in middle class incomes in developing countries for increased future demand. However, a recent analysis suggest...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Ukraine's grain exports via its sea ports had a slight gain last month against the results of February 2014. Turkey's imports of Ukrainian wheat, however,...

Senate Budget Committee to Start Markup Tomorrow

Much of the Senate's budget, which will likely be released this evening or tomorrow morning before a 2:30 pm (EDT) markup, will be focused on Medicare, Med...

Market Commentary

During overnight trade, corn futures prices were unchanged to slightly weaker in slow trade. During the day session, though, fund pressure and technical se...

Both Ways; Not Us; Sort of

The European Commission and members of Parliament continue to debate how to handle the presence of "unauthorized" substances in organic food. It is very di...

Oilseed Highlights

The National Association of Oilseed Processors (NOPA) yesterday announced an impressive February soybean crush volume, while the average soyoil yield was s...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

The volume of Saudi Arabia's wheat imports is notably shifting as its domestic production is affected by a change in land usage. Meanwhile, maize demand is...

Weather and Other Stuff

Weather and production agriculture are inseparable. In the past, the weather market season nominally lasted until about 15 December. With the emergence of...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Lonely Days – Lonely Nights

It has been a challenging period for market analysts who must find something to write about when there really isn't much different happening. We tend to fo...

China In-Country Analysis

Based on conversations with our market sources, there are actually two companies involved in the recently reported major soybean smuggling operation in Chi...

Bans and Influences

While 30 countries have imposed bans on the entry of U.S. poultry over the past month due to the outbreak of avian influenza in several states, many have c...

Market Commentary

Soybean futures traded both sides of unchanged today but were mostly lower the last half of the session. The bearish news was that truckers in Brazil did n...

Weather Market Economy

The concept of a weather market is a well-subscribed orthodoxy in agriculture and a factor in energy markets. First quarter gross domestic product (GDP) da...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

The current offer of new crop (August 2015) Russian/Ukrainian 12.5 percent protein wheat is approximately $80/MT lower than the 2014 new crop offer at the...

Updated Look at Farm Bill Spending

The dropping prices and the attractiveness of the ARC program under a more bearish market outlook have caused the CBO to update its  cost projections...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

More Things to Keep You Up at Night

U.S. farmers must soon make their 2015 crop revenue insurance decision, and it is likely that they will take reduced coverage per acre in reaction to certa...

Market Commentary

The stronger U.S. dollar, talk that Ukraine was offering corn below U.S. prices and the overall selling mood in all commodities together eventually pushed...

Currency Implications; Pesticides Residues

The U.S. dollar continues its surge in relative value, causing concern not just amongst U.S. companies but apparently in Japan as well. Anti-Trade Currency...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

GOI's recently released Economic Survey 2014-15 strongly advocated cutting subsidies and using new technologies to address problems with the distribution s...

Trash-Talking; Pre-TPA TPP

USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack has once again invoked producers of GM and non-GM crops to reach a compromise on coexistence. However, producers of GM crops hav...

Risk Management

Identifying risks and their source would seem to be an obvious necessity for any management plan. However, businesses sometimes incur risks that they are n...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Market Commentary

About two hours after the day session opened, Chicago May wheat traded through its 20-day moving average at $5.05, and a volume of fund buy stop orders was...

Oilseed Highlights

Argentina and Brazil, the two main competitors to the U.S. in the soybean sector, have seen their currencies fall in value to the U.S. dollar. If that tren...

HPAI in Arkansas Turkey Flock

USDA's APHIS has confirmed the presence of highly pathogenic H5N2 avian influenza (HPAI) in a commercial turkey flock in Arkansas, located within the Missi...

Market Commentary

Overnight trading started out slowly and without price direction. However, a later surge of buy orders in wheat and corn sent prices solidly into the green...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

A Rusagrotrans official indicated the effective export duty for wheat will significantly influence the structure of Russia's March grain exports with barle...

Biofuel Industry Fractures; Kobe Slimed

At least some parts of the U.S. advanced biofuels industry are asking for congressional legislation to change the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS). The reques...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

It seems that U.S. and Black Sea corn became more attractive to global buyers once Argentine prices increased into the mid-50s for the March-July period. T...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

Egypt's ag ministry is reported to have been considering a plan to tax imported corn by as much as $65/MT. However, pressure from the poultry industry and...

Trade, Payrolls and Productivity

Imports and exports both declined steeply in January, driven by two key temporary factors. Meanwhile, like a plow horse, the progress in the labor market d...

Market Commentary

Overnight trade in grain and soy futures was dominated by the U.S. dollar's climb to new heights, and the March WASDE released at noon (EDT) today did not...

The March WASDE

The March WASDE always provides an interesting update on USDA's views about U.S. and world demand as well as its take on South American soybean and corn pr...

EU Balkanization of GMOs

The release of an extensive review of EU policy on GMOs is scheduled for later next month, and some of the pending proposals for future procedures will cau...

Oilseed Highlights

Conab has dropped its estimates for Brazil's soybean crop and area planted to soybeans. However, the agency raised the domestic crush forecast because of a...

Selective Merchandising; Ethanol Dinged

While Robert Kenner's "Merchants of Doubt" is set to be released this Friday, the missed opportunity is to make a documentary about the merchants of small,...

Anticipating USDA's March WASDE

Analysts appear to be in general agreement regarding expectations for the March WASDE. The crop production forecasts for Brazil and Argentina might be more...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

The EU allocated 505,000 MT of wheat export licenses last week, bringing the total to 21.3 MMT versus 20.8 MMT at the same time in 2014. At the current pac...

Iowa Ag Summit

The main goal of the Iowa Ag Summit was to pin down GOP presidential candidates on their position regarding renewable fuels and the Renewable Fuel Standard...

Market Commentary

A stronger wheat market helped corn as did more talk that farmers are looking for ways to reduce corn costs because of low prices. Soybean and meal contrac...

Market Commentary

Talk that Ukraine was trying to double its corn exports to China in the next year plus the strong U.S. dollar brought more fund selling to corn today. Mean...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Ag Review: India's Possible Transformation

India's Possible Transformation Long a protectionist, backward country, Prime Minister Narendra Modi is making modest changes that will alter India's agric...

Crude Oil and Corn

Globally, the supply of crude oil and petroleum products is on a trend to hit a record-high 2.83 billion barrels by midyear. The question remains as to wha...

The Silly Season of Weekly Crop Ratings

These rating numbers have become a trading game. The problem is they are simply not reliable indicators of crop yields and were really never intended to be...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Agriculture received its fair share in the Modi government's first full budget with one of the main proposals targeting the creation of a national agricult...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Oilseed Highlights

Today's USDA export sales report confirmed the continued seasonal trend in U.S. exports of soybeans, soymeal and soyoil. Meanwhile, Brazil's wildca trucker...

U.S. Wheat and World Demand

Two important factors that have limited U.S. wheat exports in 2014/15 have been large wheat supplies held by competing origins and the effect of the histor...

End of EU Dairy Quota to Create Beef Bubble

With the EU's longstanding dairy quota  set to expire in April 2015, changes in dairy production as well as herd expansion are expected across a numbe...

Market Commentary

It is possible for large traders to influence charts, and chart action has near-term importance. However, the soy complex currently does not have the same...

TPA Reaction; EU Complexity

Reacting to Republican criticism that President Obama was squandering his opportunity to get Trade Promotion Authority (TPA) through the Congress, the Whit...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Market Commentary

We are in a period in the crop cycles when markets feel they have pretty well counted up available supplies, and demand becomes the dominant variable.The s...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

There is some tension and uncertainty in the pricing dynamics for Paraguayan grain (corn and wheat) as farmers have refused to accept low flat prices for t...

Doha; Biotech; Energy

 In the Doha round of multilateral trade negotiations, several WTO members are apparently now receptive to dumping the "Swiss-formula" approach to agr...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Ukraine's milling wheat prices rocketed again due to depreciation of the national currency (UAH). Some traders stopped buying as the UAH rate's further dev...

Oilseed Highlights

Argentina has begun requiring monthly reports of silage bag sales to farmers and third party venders in response to a situation that is reducing the amount...

Market Commentary

Today's markets provided something for everyone, depending on when you looked. The corn market badly needs a story to tell, but it may not get one until th...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

The USDA report on grain and feed for Israel was issued last week. As expected, it shows that the country is still almost totally dependent on grain import...

Squandering TPA; AGOA Deficit

U.S. Senate Finance Committee Chairman Orrin Hatch (R-Utah) announced that Trade Promotion Authority (TPA) legislation will not be introduced before April...

To Label or Not to Label

One issue of great importance to agriculture is the question of whether or not there should a mandate that foods produced from GM materials be labeled as s...

House Ag Review of SNAP

Many observers believe that this year's budget resolution, the first in five years if it comes to the House and Senate floors, will include reconciliation...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Agriculture and White House Push for TPA

House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Paul Ryan (R-Wisconsin) issued a press release on Thursday of last week that noted all the major ag and processor g...

China In-Country Analysis

China's soymeal exports have increased noticeably in the past months, according to recent data, and the volume of soybeans that arrived in the country duri...

Market Commentary

May soybeans closed right at the 50-day moving average and at or near the day's lows. The next move might be whether or not the funds try to take that out...

Non-GMO Label; Green Politics

Currently, there are privately certified non-GMO labels, but there is a lack of transparency and potential bias in their structure. U.S. soybean growers no...

Of Strikes and Other Soybean Issues

The political mood of the transportation and port industries might play a bigger role in the soybean supply and demand situation than record crop productio...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Crop Revenue Update

Some producers are just starting to look at the price calculations and are stunned by the revenue coverage for 2015 crops versus the previous several years...

TPA Threatened; Food Threatened

The U.S. government's has announced a decision regarding water distribution this year to farmers in California's hyper-productive Central Valley that shoul...

Appropriations Panel Reviews FSIS Budget Priorities

The FSIS budget has become one of the more delicate political issues in the past few years because of the 2011 Budget Control Act that reestablished the se...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

India's government revised the kharif corn production (October/November harvest) forecast from 16.07 MMT to 16.47 MMT. However, the trade and industry ther...

Market Commentary

Price changes in the soy complex today depended on how the market interpreted any news of the Brazilian truckers' strike. Wheat was inexplicably strong tod...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Oilseed Highlights

While India's previous govenment began stalling the reglatory process for biotech crops in 2010, the victory of Prime Minister Modi's BJP party last year h...

Beef Prices Up on Limited Supply

According to USDA, Americans spent about 6.4 percent of their annual consumer expenditures on food in 2012. However, protein prices are rsing at a faster r...

Financial Regulation; TAA

While U.S. congressional leaders calculate how to reach agreement on Trade Promotion Authority (TPA), it is clear that melding U.S. and European agricultur...

Corn versus Soybeans

Although it may be an oversimplification, the annual spring planting decisions are widely viewed as a fight between corn and soybeans. However, a variety o...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Market Commentary

The soy complex ruled futures markets today, and press reports highlighting road blockages by Brazilian truckers ruled the soy complex. The corn and wheat...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

During the next month, South American farmers will have to start considering their planting intentions for the 2015/16 season. Ther market there, though, i...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

As Ukraine's currency depreciates, most of the country's grain and oilseed prices have seen significant increases in the past week. Meanwhile, its MY 2014/...

Market Commentary

Export demand for U.S. soybeans has begun to lighten as Brazilian shipments get underway, and USDA reported a sale of 120,000 MT of HRW to Egypt under the...

Politocrats; TPA Crunch; Chocolate Hooey

If the FAO wished to accomplish food security, it would promote improved governance, land rights, the availability of inputs, credit and transparent market...

China In-Country Analysis

A look at the dynamics that transpired in 2014 and the early part of 2015 with commentary and observations on factors shaping the way forward for this and...

Market Commentary

After yesterday's weakness, the corn market was due for a turnaround and had one for most of the session, thanks to the pull from the soybean market Genera...

Oilseed Highlights

While Brazil raised its biodiesel blending requirement from 6 to 7 percent effective 1 December 2014, truckers there protesting against a diesel fuel tax a...

The Stubborn Soybean Market

The outlook for soybeans does continue to appear fundamentally bearish. However, soy complex futures seem reluctant to acknowledge just how bearish the sit...

Economic Report of the President: Climate Change and Ag

The report shows recent change in farm income over the past five years. For the future, it focuses heavily on the threats posed by climate change issues in...

No Grease for Greece; Japan’s Next Farm Minister

Greece may have obtained a four-month extension in its fight with the European Union over a budget crisis, but vacating the euro is an uncertain solution f...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

Egypt's tourism industry, which greatly affects the country's poultry sector, has improved since 2013. There are other factors, though, that are also impac...

Market Commentary

Markets were steady to slightly firmer overnight, but that didn't last long in today's session. The soy complex is very resilient in the face of a record h...

Climate; Spring Planting; Sugar; Biofuel

The Dietary Guidelines Advisory Committee argued last week that sugars should be reduced from the diet and taxes imposed on sugar-sweetened beverages. Now...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

Russian and Ukrainian wheat are offered significantly lower today versus two weeks ago, but they are still not competitive against French, German and Polis...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

California Cooperatives Petition for Federal Milk Pricing

USDA received a formal hearing request from California Dairies Inc., Land O'Lakes Inc. and Dairy Farmers of America Inc. to establish a Federal Milk Market...

The Void Zone

The big problem for markets over the next six weeks is that there will be very little in the way of fresh news to discuss, especially of the bullish variet...

The Acreage Question

The question of what U.S. farmers will plant in 2015 is still looming very large over the markets. Most analysts have been assuming that acreage will decli...

Dietary Guidelines

One of the key developments is that while less consumption of red and processed meats is advised, recommendations regarding lean meat are excluded.That is...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

India has announced the draft of a new health certificate that could allow the importation of frozen pork and pork products from the U.S. Currently, those...

TPA; TTIP; Antitrust

Food manufacturers that rely on major distributors to get their products to stores around the U.S. are breathing easier now that the Federal Trade Commissi...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Market Commentary

Markets were slightly lower overnight in light volume. This week's pattern of one day strong and the next day weak continued today after yesterday's streng...

COOL Appeal Hearing This Week

The U.S. appeal over the WTO ruling against its country-of-origin-labeling (COOL) regulation is being heard in Geneva this week. It is likely the WTO will...

Market Commentary

The market viewed USDA's soybean acreage projection as bullish. The corn acreage number was not a real surprise. Corn futures gained about 6 cents, mostly...

Speculative Position Limits

Those who trade in grain and soy complex derivatives are very familiar with speculative position limits. There have been such limits in place since the 193...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Oilseed Highlights

USDA today revealed its estimates for U.S. crop plantings in 2015 at its annual Outlook Conference. In a bit of a surprise and in contrast to many other pr...

Politicizing Nutrition

The Dietary Guidelines Advisory Committee has recommended the spawning of many mayors like former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg by suggesting that...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Argentine corn licenses for new crop have been issued for the time period from 15 March onward. However, early-seeded corn is presently being harvested, an...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

The Russian Grain Union announced that spring planting costs will rise at least 40 percent compared to 2014 because of certain other increasing expenses. R...

Market Commentary

After yesterday's strong market, trade in soybeans and corn was rather noncommittal during the overnight session. Outside factors did not help grain and so...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

A recent forecast of Turkey's grain imports indicates a noticeable change due to the effect of the winter weather on that country's wheat and barley produc...

The Contrary Grain Sorghum Outlook

There is good reason to devote attention to grain sorghums this year as exports have been soaring with China's huge demand and impacting prices.In USDA's m...

Breadth of Ag Support

The number of Americans directly involved in food and agriculture continues to fall, but the sector still retains some influence on Capitol Hill as evidenc...

Drones in Agriculture

The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has released its rules on the commercial use of drones. While the agriculture sector is expected by some to be on...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Oilseed Highlights

India's soymeal exports to date have been running far below the pace of a year earlier since October for a number of reasons. However, new data indicates J...

Market Commentary

Wheat and corn prices changed only modestly, but soymeal and soybean prices were sharply higher with the strong meal market leading the way. General Commen...

Presidents' Day

Monday, 16 February is a U.S. holiday. The markets and our office will all be closed that day.  Please note that the next publication date for Ag Pers...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

It is now hoped that India's new government will be able to  keep the Minimum Support Price (MSP) of fine cereals in check, and the states have b...

More Things to Keep You Up at Night

It's been a long and quiet week in both the markets and market-making (or breaking) news, but here are some things to keep you up at night: Do you ever wo...

Market Commentary

This was Friday the 13th and an impressive day, considering it came ahead of a long holiday weekend in the U.S. The only unlucky people seemed to be t...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Climate; Japan Ag; Mad Cow; Apples

Departing White House aide John Podesta attacked the Republican-led Congress for failing to address global climate change. However, the blame lies squarely...

More Things to Keep You Up at Night

Recent chatter that cotton acres will decline by 10-15 percent this year also suggests many of those will go to corn, leaving that crop's acreage nearly un...

Market Commentary

Trading in the grains and soy complex in both the overnight and day sessions was a low volume affair with prices visiting both sides. Meanwhile, weekly exp...

Chlorine; Emissions; the Devil

Agriculture is being targeted for many ills ranging from obesity to water pollution. Now the Food and Agriculture Organization has piled on with a study cl...

Constant Change

If there is a single common thread that ties together agricultural crops and all of the varied economic activities that are based on them, it is the consta...

Oilseed Highlights

While the market is accounting for the pending huge Argentine soybean crop, uncertainty surrounds what farmers will do with the soybean stocks they current...

WASDE

USDA revised the forecast for total red meat and poultry production compared with the January report, based on changes in all three species.   WASDE...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russia's wheat export duty that went into effect 1 February was intended to reduce export volumes and decrease domestic prices. However, neither of these g...

Market Commentary

So far in 2014/15, the soybean futures market has been more impressed by the demand for soybeans and soymeal than by soybean supplies. However, it will pro...

Devaluation Rationalized; Defining Export Subsidies

The U.S. Congress is demanding that currency manipulation be addressed, and now U.S. Treasury Secretary Jack Lew has some explaining to do. Currency Devalu...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

While Brazilian soybeans are presently more competitive than those at the U.S. Gulf for March-May, that spread is not large. Any appreciation of the real o...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Oilseed Highlights

Today's USDA supply and demand report included no major surprises for the soybean sector, but it was slightly positive. There were several revisions to U.S...

More on Currencies; Fundamentals

Legislation that would classify "currency manipulation" as a countervailable subsidy under U.S. trade law could cause unnecessary collateral damage. More o...

Market Commentary

Without new market-moving guidance of their own, grain and soy futures markets again came under the influence of outside factors as they so often have rece...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

The deputy chairman of the Cyprus Grain Commission (CGC) resigned last week and indicated certain steps that the organization will need to implement in ord...

The February WASDE

On a relative (percentage) basis, the biggest change in a U.S. grain or oilseed supply/demand estimate was for grain sorghums. However, perhaps the most cl...

Crop Insurance under the Budget Gun

More budget scrutiny is anticipated in the coming year, given the focus on deficits and reduced spending as well as the over-budget projected costs of the...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

The EU has allocated a higher number of wheat export licenses compared to a year ago at this time.This is not surprising, though, when considering certain...

China In-Country Analysis

Several factors in conjunction with the late movement by China's feed mills to stock up for the holiday season suggest that the soymeal price will be chang...

2015-16 U.S. Soybean Supply & Demand is Bearish

Nearly every analysis including this one agrees on the  2015 U.S. and world soybean outlook. However, the jury is still largely out on at least one im...

Perfect Currency Storm; Battle of Studies

The U.S. dollar is on a long-term spike in value at the same time other economies are softening, and the timing couldn't be worse for Obama administration...

Market Commentary

Corn led markets higher with wheat struggling, and soybeans traded as much as 8-9 higher at mid-morning, although they couldn't sustain those gains. Most o...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Eggs and California Lead to Interstate Commerce Bill

In the short term, California's 2008 egg-layer referendum seems to have widened the historical gap between that state's market and other parts of the count...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

India currently grows only one GM crop, cotton. Experts now believe that the country should look beyond cotton as GM production has a proven domestic track...

Ag Review: Future Price Action and the Bell Curve

Doomed or Muddling Through Global economic and political developments present many concerns, but there are a few less stark perspectives. The Year Ahead fo...

More Things to Keep You Up at Night

With markets more active than would be expected for early February, there are several issues related to crops and trade  that are worth considering.Ma...

Junk Science: Biotech and Pesticides

EU Commissioners failed to reach agreement on approval or disapproval of a dozen pending biotech traits. The fact that politics rather than science largely...

Presidential Candidates to Appear at Ag Forum in Iowa

On 7 March, an agriculture policy forum for presidential candidates is scheduled at the Iowa State fairgrounds in Des Moines. While the event is targeted t...

Market Commentary

The markets started slightly lower last night but firmed as the session wore on and finished slightly higher. That trend was reversed once today's session...

Oilseed Highlights

South Africa's farmers have planted a record area to soybeans this year in response to strong domestic demand, which has been rising and is expected to gro...

Plummeting Pork Prices

Today's pork cutout value was the lowest since spring 2009. One reason is a drop in cases of Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea virus (PEDv), but there are also oth...

A Sad but Inevitable Day

Advancing technology made the end of open outcry pit trading of futures inevitable, but it will still be sad to see such a historic, colorful era conclude...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Ag as Poster Child; Booze Tax

Members of Congress largely representing agricultural districts may be few in number, but the sector is a poster child for what many in the body see as the...

Market Commentary

It has been a topsy-turvy week for grain and soy futures as well as energy markets as they react to a variety of contrary factors that pushed prices up, do...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Market Trends: 26-30 January 2015During the week in review, wheat prices moved in different directions as prices for other grain crops increased (in RUB ex...

Market Commentary

Soy complex prices fell and gave back half or more of yesterday's gains as trader's recognized that supply/demand fundamentals for soybeans are as bearish...

U.S.–EU Debate; Ag and the Environment

U.S. and EU negotiators meeting this week on the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership have plenty on the agenda. A major hurdle continues to be i...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Rather stable corn futures contracts at the CBOT of around $4.00 per bushel and present uncertainty about the ability to export are causing corn basis to w...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russia has exported 22.7 MMT of grains as of 28 January and from the beginning of MY 2014/15, 31 percent more than during the same period in MY 2013/14. Th...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Budget Surprises; LDP’s TPP Plan

The Obama administration's budget once again proposes reorganizing certain government functions, but also seeks to increase funds for a few agricultural-re...

Market Commentary

Recent increases in open interest in corn, soybeans and wheat have suggested that new noncommercial shorts had entered the market. Today's sudden rally in...

One View of the South American Soybean Outlook

Much like the U.S., Brazil produces soybeans over a huge land mass, virtually assuring that every crop has developed under a variety of weather conditions...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

According to reports from Russia, wheat cargoes to Egypt's GASC are delayed in the ports there and exporters/traders will now be liable for the new Russian...

Oilseed Highlights

The government of Indonesian President Joko Widodo has proposed more than tripling the subsidy for biodiesel in order to expand production and help the pal...

Details on Ag Proposals in the President’s Budget

Two of the changes to USDA spending programs included in President Obama's proposed FY 2016 budget are related to the federal crop insurance program and co...

President Submits Budget for FY 2016

The budget was very much in line with the proposals in President Obama's State of the Union address and included a number of new tax proposals  that w...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

Ukrainian corn is under heavy pressure. At current prices, it is more competitive against U.S. origin to Asia, although not by much. The last trades to Sou...

Market Commentary

The soy complex opened higher this morning despite overnight news that China's latest PMI number was below 50 for the first time in two-and-a-half years. E...

Crop Revenue Insurance Pricing Started Today

Farmers previously knew well in advance of the planting season that they would have big per acre revenue guarantees from the insurance program regardless o...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

China In-Country Analysis

On 1 February, China's central government released its annual guidelines for the domestic economy and key policy reforms, known as China's "No.1 Central Do...

TTIP Skepticism; Food Movement

Supposed horizontal regulatory principles are on the TTIP agenda and include an earlier U.S. proposal for handling SPS issues. However, the EU has imposed...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

India's 2013/14 vegetable oil imports grew by 12 percent to a record high of 11.82 MMT and are expected to rise further. GOI has raised the import duties o...

Petroleum; Europe’s Future

There is a terrific mess in Europe, and the attitude of the newly-elected Greek government that it must be granted debt relief is posing a massive challeng...

Farm Operating Loans and Livestock Loans Up on Down Market

The Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank released its report on farm lending for the fourth quarter of 2014, which showed non-real estate loans are up about 50...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

U.S. Corn Supply and Demand Outlook

Those analysts with a bearish slant, probably representing the higher percentage today, will at least use a big yield estimate and are also likely to have...

Market Commentary

Much of the world was lower on this last trading day of January. Soybean and soymeal futures were down double-digits off and on as fund liquidation and mor...

New Dairy Margin Protection Program Costs

The CBO's latest 10-year budget baseline estimates total costs of the Dairy Margin Protection Program (DMPP) have changed significantly from the April 2014...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Environment; Biotech; Biofuel; Beef and Pork

U.S. EPA is working on a plan to slow the adaptation by corn rootworms to corn that has been genetically modified to contain Bacillus thuringiensus (Bt). M...

Trading Ranges

The corn and wheat futures markets have clearly abandoned their trading ranges of last fall and are trying to find new ones at some lower level.There are a...

Oilseed Highlights

The U.S. biodiesel industry and oilseed producer organizations are livid at the Obama administration for its announcement this week that it would facilitat...

Market Commentary

Wheat, corn and soyoil all fell to new lows for the month. The day session at least had USDA's weekly export sales report to trade on, although how much in...

Market Commentary

The strong U.S. dollar has been one of the factors pressing on commodity prices (including grains and the soy complex) and certainly was part of the reason...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Argentine farmers are considering how to be strategic next season with low domestic prices and limited credit. During the past few crop cycles, they switch...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Ukraine's Agrarian Policy and Food Minister Oleksiy Pavlenko signed a Memorandum of Understanding with grain exporters on 27 January. The parties agreed th...

Competitive Devaluation

Both Democrats and Republicans in congressional hearings this week expressed disappointment that currency manipulation policy has not been made part of the...

Brazil: The Year of the Soybean

Not very often do North and South America enjoy such similarly beneficial weather for spring planted crops during the same crop cycle as has been seen duri...

Good Vibes; Obvious Outcomes

Unsurprising to those in the rice trade, Bangkok is now indicating that it will be dumping millions of tons of surplus rice onto the world market. PLC Tol...

CBO Issues 10-Year Outlook on Budget and Crop Prices

The report includes an economic forecast and projections of spending and revenues under current law over the next 10 years. It is of course a tall order to...

Oilseed Highlights

The March soybean futures contract price fell by 8.75 cents/bushel today, apparently as a result of USDA reporting an exporter's cancellation of a 120,000...

Market Commentary

Biding time seems to be the dominant strategy within grain markets. Short-term strategies to scalp limited returns are expected to influence day-to-day act...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

Turkey is said to have imported as much as 200,000 MT of EU rapeseed in recent months with more expected after it rejected stocks from the Black Sea when G...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

Strategie Grains has raised its EU wheat export estimate from December by 2.1 MMT to 29.3 MMT (unchanged from last year) due to Russia's export restriction...

China In-Country Analysis

China's 2014 sorghum imports increased more than fivefold to 5.78 MMT from 1.08 MMT in 2013, according to China Customs. Demand was driven in part by the i...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

A Peek at Weather

The major concern isn't with 2015 crop production across the Corn Belt and northern Plains, but with what could occur in 2016 and 2017. That apprehension i...

Ethanol Industry Seeking E-30 under New Fuel Standards

According to the EPA, the petitioners' primary interests are to increase ethanol use and protect or improve their competitive position, which it maintains...

Europe Split; New WTO Path

Without ambition, countries will use platforms other than the WTO to negotiate trade liberalization (aka Trans-Pacific Partnership, etc.). Too much ambitio...

Market Commentary

Soybean futures were slightly lower much of the night session, but reversed that trend and traded slightly higher most of today's session. The only bullish...

Oilseed Highlights

Data released by China's General Administration of Customs indicated the country imported 32,005,374 MT of soybeans from Brazil, its top supplier, in CY 20...

Market Commentary

Corn had been trading unchanged to lower overnight, but the export sales numbers did bring some buying to this morning's opening.The collapse in the euro,...

House Agriculture Committee’s Organizational Meeting

New Chairman Mike Conaway (R-Texas) laid out his agenda for the committee and has reorganized a number of subcommittees to better suit his announced priori...

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