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Mercosur Regional Analysis

The lack of U.S. dollars is a serious issue for the Argentine government. As a result, it has released 500,000 MT of old crop corn and 400,000 MT of old cr...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

Egypt's plans to become a central grain hub for North Africa and the Middle East have apparently been accelerated with the government indicating that all p...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Gasoline Prices to Continue Decline

Brent prices are now the lowest they have been since late 2010, before violence in Libya and other areas in the Middle East and North Africa disrupted sign...

Oilseed Highlights

DuPont Pioneer India last week opened a crop research center in Hyderabad, India to develop new crop varieties for that country's agricultural sector. The...

The Guessing Game Again

When there have been month-over-month increases in yield and production estimates through October, history suggests that the odds strongly favor a further...

Market Commentary

Grain and soy prices opened the overnight session weaker, which carried over into the day session. Traders are concerned about what might happen if the H7N...

PredictIt; Oxymorons and Cowards; Actually Okay

The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) gave approval to a new prediction market, but revealed its bias toward politics, non-profits and unive...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

The Black Sea corn market was firmer last week, although not precisely following the CBOT futures rally. Ukrainian corn is offered at $177/MT FOB for Novem...

How About That Soybean Demand

The domestic soymeal demand has been blamed for the recent strong rally in soybeans and soymeal futures. That has certainly been part of the driving force,...

Ballot Initiatives of Interest to Agriculture

Tuesday is Election Day, and a number of down ballot issues of interest to agriculture will be voted on tomorrow including four related to GMOs. Tomorrow...

China In-Country Analysis

China's domestic crushers and traders seem to be welcoming the potential soybean shortage for the next month in order to reverse the profitability issues e...

Asynchronous; Just Because

Recognizing that the jump from conventional agriculture to "pure" organic is a large one, the EU has allowed numerous derogations from the original concept...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Market Commentary

Wheat withstood the weakness in soybeans and corn today and actually traded steady to slightly higher much of the session. The relative strength was likely...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

In a bid to incentivize farmers, the government of India (GOI) has announced an increase in the Minimum Support Price (MSP) for several of the 2014/15 wint...

How Does the Value of the U.S. Dollar Impact the U.S. Economy?

The U.S. dollar has been on a bull ride of late, especially against the currency of some of our most important trading partners.The U.S. dollar has been on...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

MSP Raised for Key CropsIn a bid to incentivize farmers, the government of India (GOI) has announced an increase in the Minimum Support Price (MSP) for sev...

Market Commentary

The volatility in the soybean and soymeal markets continued last night and today. Corn did manage to rally to slight gains when the soy complex was surging...

Big Data; COOL; Survey

Producer groups want the Obama administration to simply appeal the WTO Dispute Settlement Panel's (DSP) decision that the U.S. country-of-origin labeling (...

More Things to Keep You Up at Night

The U.S. rail shuttle freight market, at least the BNSF, seems to be softening. If the weakness in shuttle rates stays, it should mean that interior basis...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Oilseed Highlights

Today's USDA Export Sales Report indicated U.S. exporters once again had a big week selling soybeans with a total 1.326 MMT. That was down by 39 percent fr...

Cattle on Feed

The dynamics between fed cattle marketings and placements are analyzed with their implications for next quarters' beef demand and pricing. Feedlot turnover...

Tricks and Treats

In a strange way, the approach of Halloween turns our attention to the current state of grain and soy markets here in the U.S. Twisting the spirit of "Tric...

Market Commentary

The overnight session saw grain and soy prices trade modestly higher in relatively slow action. However, after three days of higher closes, the markets pau...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Silly; USTR Falters; Just Checking

The EU has not approved a new biotech trait all year, and it was hoped that the outgoing Commission membership would at least move forward on two cottonsee...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

A meeting was held Monday between Argentine exporters and government officials. Exporters were expecting the release of 4 MMT of corn and 2 MMT of wheat fo...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Sugar Impact; Biotech; Balkanization

The state-by-state biotech labeling campaigns by technology opponents undermine the federal preemption on food marketing, and now the same is happening to...

Market Commentary

Corn and wheat were pulled along by the soy complex, although corn could build its own demand story from last week's ethanol production that averaged 937,0...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Ukraine has exported 11.237 MMT of grain as of 27 October 2014 and from the beginning of MY 2014/15. Included were 6.27 MMT of wheat, 1.624 MMT of corn, 3...

Fun with Export Sales Numbers

U.S. corn exports deviation from historic patterns has implications for what exports will be in the rest of the marketing year. Analysis of unshipped corn...

Oilseed Highlights

Yesterday's USDA reports showed much progress was made last week in harvesting the U.S. soybean crop. Illinois, Missouri, Indiana, Ohio, Kentucky and Kansa...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

U.S. and Mexico Reach Deal on Sugar Case

The U.S. Department of Commerce yesterday announced that it had reached preliminary terms with Mexico and its sugar exporters. If these are finalized, it w...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

Iran's government announced that it will be working with the FAO to improve domestic wheat and barley production. While some say that the country is approa...

Market Commentary

Overnight strength carried over into the day session amid active volume. December corn continued to march ahead, while it was another volatile session for...

Argentina is Still a Mess

There is some question regarding whether as many total acres of all crops in Argentina will be planted as expected with the low prices, high input costs an...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

Ukrainian corn remains the least expensive origin for Asian buyers. However, the competitive advantage versus South American and U.S. PNW corn is only $2-5...

World Roundup

USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack will help host December's U.S.-China Joint Commission on Commerce and Trade in Chicago. This will be an excellent opportunity fo...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Brazil and Uruguay Elections

Brazil saw President Dilma Rousseff win a narrow victory over challenger Senator Aecio Neves, while Uruguay is headed to a runoff on 30 November in an elec...

Market Commentary

Markets were soft overnight with corn and wheat 2-4 cents lower and soybeans down as much as 8-9 cents when the night session closed. That weakness evapora...

China In-Country Analysis

China's feed price remains low as a result of the declining domestic corn price and flat soymeal price, which boosts the livestock industry's profitability...

Enviro Snippets; Marketing; Sunday

Agriculture contributes 10 percent of Europe's carbon emissions, and a Commission study indicates that the farming sector could meet a 28 percent reduction...

Policy Potpourri

The EPA's approval  this summer of two new pathways for generating cellulosic ethanol led directly to the August explosion in cellulosic production an...

The Soybean Outlook Stays Bearish into 2015/16

The soybean outlook continues to have a negative picture unless there is a significant production problem in South America this season or a big soybean yie...

Market Commentary

Yesterday's weekly soybean export sales number of nearly 2 MMT was the last straw that took futures briefly back above $10.00. Wheat futures seemed to sit...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

It is still too early to estimate India's sugar production because many mills have yet to begin crushing operations in Uttar Pradesh as there is a stalemat...

Market Commentary

Grain and soy markets were mixed overnight amid lighter volume than has been seen the past several overnight sessions. However, the day session was anythin...

Oilseed Highlights

Reports out of Brazil indicate a deal still has not been reached between exporting companies and Monsanto regarding the collection of royalties on its inse...

Index Funds Are Still Here

The last two or three years have been tough on commodity index funds. Most have lost money. However, rightly or wrongly, index funds are promoted as long-t...

Squeeze on Hamburger

The current small herd  means pressures on producers for herd expansion, which means less culling and a lower cow slaughter. This has the potential to...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

TPP Signs; Never Enough

Over 170 people signed up for a presentation yesterday in Washington on the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) negotiations. As presenter Gary Horlick observe...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

TPP Timing; Hurdles

The U.S. and Japan have reportedly resumed negotiations on agriculture at this week's Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) meeting in Canberra. However, Tokyo w...

Market Commentary

Most grain and soy contracts held onto gains until the latter stages of the day session when buying interest slackened and hedge selling began to take over...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

During the last campaign, Brazil exported 4.4 MMT of soybeans in February 2014 (3.8 MMT to China) versus 960,000 MT in February 2013. The upcoming campaign...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

The forecast for Russia's 2014 grain production has been lowered as a result of unfavorable weather conditions in areas of the country that have impacted t...

Markets In Search of Guidance

Global economic uncertainties are likely to continue, and they will influence commodity markets including grain and soy periodically. However, many of the...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Market Commentary

It was another "Turnaround Tuesday" for grain and soy futures markets. Prices gained modestly overnight in relatively light volume. The gains were limited...

Outlooks; Fooled

U.S. EPA will likely announce its final Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) blend requirement after next month's election. Had the Obama administration wished to...

Will WTO Ruling “COOL” Ethanol Exports?

Yesterday's WTO ruling regarding the updated implementing rule for the U.S. country-of-origin labeling (COOL) law could have implications for U.S. den...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

Grain traders in Iran have been quietly buying corn supplies in Black Sea markets with trade estimates that about 120,000 MT have been purchased. Prices ar...

Oilseed Highlights

The 2014 crop year was an exceptional one for rapeseed in the EU-28. Total production this year is estimated at 23.93 MMT by Oil World and 23.5 MMT by USDA...

Talking About 2015 Already?

We are seeing a number of analysts telling producers they ought to be selling not just 2015 production, but also some 2016 production. This does seem very...

China In-Country Analysis

Indications are that soybean shipments to China in October have been steadily declining. Part of the reason is a short-term drop in demand due to the seaso...

COOL Rule Issued by WTO: U.S. Must Comply

Today's decree essentially found that the implementing rule does provide less favorable treatment for Canadian and Mexican livestock, but stopped short of...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

Wheat exports from Germany, Poland and the Baltic states are higher than a year ago. However, they are significantly slower from France (the biggest EU pro...

Market Commentary

It seemed like we were back to trading big yields and excellent corn and soybean harvest weather today, not fund short covering or rebalancing. U.S. financ...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Advocacy

Ethanol proponents' rebuttal to the California Air Resource Board's (CARB's) proposed indirect land use calculation (ILUC) offers both a sharp tongue about...

Market Commentary

The weekly export sales report released today wasn't enough to hold the market together as selling pressure started to mount in the soy complex, and there...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

While India's poultry industry is against any trade of U.S. poultry meat, the general view is that such imports will be of low volume and not harmful to th...

Drones in Agriculture

Although farmers are currently unable to fly over crop fields or pastureland to capture pictures or video of anything that would be sold commercially, ther...

Those Pesky Funds Keep Buying Soybeans

This week saw aggressive fund buying in the absence of any significant hedge selling, and prices went up instead of down. The strength during harvest likel...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Two Beef Checkoffs?

USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack has declared that he will initiate a new beef checkoff that will operate side-by-side with the current version. Checkoff revenue...

Market Commentary

Outside markets displayed a relatively calmer tone today. Grain and soy futures traded rather quietly, and prices were mixed during the overnight session w...

Oilseed Highlights

NOPA's monthly soybean crush report, which was released yesterday, indicated soyoil stocks at the end of September totaled 936.88 million pounds (424,965 M...

Red Line for India; U.S.-China FTA

A few days ago, Indian officials dropped the hint that they were in negotiations in Geneva for a permanent "due restraint" agreement, allowing them to oper...

Farm Bill Fun and Games

Whenever it becomes time for Congress to create a new farm bill (technically, to amend the 1938 and 1949 legislation), we are amazed by the number of diver...

Sugar; Dead; Abe’s Call; Foreigners

Mexican Economy Secretary Ildefonso Guajardo is threatening to challenge the U.S. sugar program in the WTO, but the American sugar industry is likely...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

In Paraguay almost 70 percent of the wheat crop is already harvested with very good quality. This is a little surprising because there were some excessive...

Market Commentary

The November soybean price swung between 14 cents higher and 14 cents lower before closing down 12.25 cents at $9.525. Non-commercials have been shrinking...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Market experts indicate that 26 percent of the total 2014 Ukrainian wheat harvest is of milling quality. In addition, approximately 36 percent of the milli...

Group Urges President Obama to Address Biotech And Trade with China

In its letter to President Obama, the U.S. Biotech Crop Alliance cited serious challenges to trade because of an unpredictable framework for approvals of n...

Corn’s Updated Outlook

It is widely assumed that the November WASDE estimates for corn yield and production will likely be larger than October's. This assumption will grow strong...

Sino-Russia; U.S. Dollar; Chicken

China may in some ways favor Russia, but it has been ambivalent about the situation in Crimea. More importantly, it will buy Russian energy and opportunist...

Market Commentary

Wheat futures prices closed 4-6 cents higher due almost entirely to the influence of the other markets. Last week's mediocre inspections show that wheat ex...

Oilseed Highlights

Now that we have entered MY 2014/15, it is worthwhile to once again realize just how dominant China is as the main driver of global demand for soybeans and...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

Egypt is considering a free trade zone with Russia, Kazakhstan and Belarus, also known as the Eurasian Economic Union. This would allow for increased expor...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

WASDE: Pork to Surpass Beef Production

This most recent estimate is founded on expanding pig production, higher farrowing intentions for the last quarter of 2014 into 2015 and a more rapid forec...

Farm Bill Rewrite; TPA Trips TPP

The brand new, only partially-deployed 2014 Farm Bill may have to be rewritten as the outlook for commodity prices is substantially lower than the one used...

Malting Barley Prices on the Rise

Prices appear set to make a move higher, following a smaller-than-expected crop production coupled with some significant quality problems.Malting barley pr...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

The EU wheat (French, German and Baltic, etc.) remains more competitive for most destinations versus Russian and Ukrainian origins. Russia's remaining surp...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Market Commentary

Corn started to move reluctantly higher with the rally in soybeans, but advanced up sharply at mid-morning. There was little news around to excite the whea...

China In-Country Analysis

China's Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) recently released the revised Measures for Overseas Investment Management, intended to encourage more Chinese compani...

Rio Grande; GSP

Mexico is reportedly demanding completion of a suspension agreement with the U.S. on antidumping and countervailing duty cases involving sugar by the end o...

USDA Reports Not as Bearish as Expected

The markets have been anxiously waiting for today's USDA yield and production estimates for corn and soybeans since the September report was released. Near...

New Chairman for House Agriculture Committee

Assuming the Republicans maintain their majority in the House, there will be a number of committee gavels to pass. This includes the House Agriculture Comm...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Corn prices in India have been moving lower over the past few weeks with no sign that the downslide is likely to stop. An end to this bearish trend will re...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Market Commentary

It was a topsy-turvy day in the markets both before and after the release of USDA's October reports. Volume in corn and soybeans was very large. Wheat volu...

Feed Additives Future

With Europe's ban on antibiotic usage for growth promotion in livestock and new voluntary standards in the U.S., the antibiotic share of the feed additive...

The Looming Struggle for Exports

A sizeable portion of increased global supplies will be in the hands of exporting countries. The U.S., Canada, Brazil, Argentina, the EU, Russia, Australia...

Market Commentary

Corn futures swung back and forth before winding up with modest gains of less than 2 cents. Wheat prices at all three markets clocked double-digit losses t...

Don’t Plant; Yuan Shock

Bloomberg reports that China plans to globalize its currency by allowing its citizens to invest abroad and permitting Chinese companies to sell yuan-denomi...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Oilseed Highlights

The Argentine government claims that farmers and exporters are holding as much as 21-22 MMT of stocks as a hedge against inflation, which it considers fina...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

A question in the Brazilian soybean market has become, "Which will have more pressure to drop – the port premiums or the paper in Paranagua?" Most likely,...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Payoffs; Currency Irresolved

Coming on the heels of an announcement that American taxpayers are subsidizing rich Brazilian cotton growers with over $800 million, it has been revealed t...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Ukraine is reported to have produced a record volume of vegetable oil in MY 2013/14. Its share of the global market has been rising for seven years and rea...

Market Commentary

The stealthy wheat market has staged a technical "adjustment." Chicago wheat futures have mirrored the corn market by closing higher for the last six tradi...

Oilseed Highlights

The Argentine government is reportedly  considering the establishment of a national grain company to compete with multinational exporting firms. Argen...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

Officials in Egypt are stating that wheat imports in 2015 will drop by 50 percent to 4-4.5 MMT. However, most experts there don't expect any serious declin...

Ag Lawsuits

There have been developments in a few major legal issues relating to agriculture that have unfolded in the past several days, and the final resolutions of...

Market Commentary

Today it was wheat's turn to lead the rally, and it did so in style. All three wheat markets spent most of the day session preening with double-digit gains...

Ag Review: The Policy Implications of 2014

Policy for the Rest of 2014 The upcoming U.S. election is occurring amidst geopolitical upheaval and macroeconomic malaise, but there is a pan-Pacific poli...

Never Sell a Dull Market

Why have grain and soy markets broken out of their dull mode and rallied so sharply with the October WASDE now only three days away?Grain and soy futures o...

The Mystery Rally

There was no unexpected export business around or any adverse weather forecast that could have been the cause. This would seem to be a good old-fashioned s...

China In-Country Analysis

Although the Chinese government has launched a new media campaign to educate and promote the safety of GM agricultural commodities, a quick review of China...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

The market in Romania and Bulgaria is very quiet. Farmers are still holding a large volume of wheat, but they prefer to wait for higher prices later in the...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Deflections; Hurdles

The U.S. reportedly settled a trade remedies case with Indonesia, although the solution is off point from the original challenge. Trade Policy Deflections...

Market Commentary

Markets opened much firmer than expected Sunday evening and then continued to strengthen during the night and into today's session. Soybeans were clearly t...

Brazilian Election: Who is Aecio Neves?

Senator Aecio Neves trailed far behind Marina Silva and President Dilma Rousseff early in the campaign, but placed second in Brazil's presidential election...

Politics and Ethanol in Brazil and the U.S.

On Sunday, there will be a presidential election in Brazil where the Rousseff government has developed and implemented a tax credit for ethanol imports. In...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

India's 2013/14 basmati rice crop saw different varieties purchased by millers at prices ranging between $485-625/MT. For several reasons, however, the pri...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Divide; Differ; Distort

To say that the U.S. and EU economies are structured differently is an understatement. While public sector employment in the U.S. is smaller and has been d...

North Dakota Farm Meeting

There were representatives from the malting barley and sunflower industry at the meeting. This supports the idea that the "minor" crops are engaged in watc...

Market Commentary

Markets were quiet in light overnight trading activity. It was a low volume back-and-forth trading session with little in terms of fresh market inputs. Cor...

Tracking Market History

The desire of interested parties to "discover" the value of certain grains in the future is one of the reasons for the evolvement of the first futures mark...

Bearish Global Dairy Market Won’t Slow U.S. Production

Some bullish factors in the U.S. include cheese and butter stocks in cold storage as of July that are at levels below the five-year average, which pushed u...

Oilseed Highlights

The recent sharp declines in global soybean prices may be good news for the world's soybean processors, food manufacturers and animal feeders after years o...

EU Prejudice; Gracias; Gridlock

Watching the new EU Commissioner-designates before the EU Parliament provides a sense that the new bunch is even more prejudiced against a Transatlantic Tr...

Market Commentary

After trading on both sides, soybeans, wheat and corn all closed higher in quiet trade. Wheat and soybeans were helped by good export sales volume last wee...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

The Russian Ministry of Agriculture reported that 10.73 MMT of grain were exported as of 24 September 2014 and from the beginning of MY 2014/15 (26.6 perce...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Market Commentary

If one wanted market action today, he should have taken on the wheat market. Chicago wheat closed with minor gains, but it traded in a 15-16 cent range on...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

The only way for Argentina to be competitive in the current global corn market is to sell corn via combos (corn with meal). Presently, the country can offe...

Baleout; Undue Barrier

The U.S. has agreed to pay a relatively small number of Brazilian cotton farmers $300 million to settle a trade dispute over the size of subsidies given to...

USDA’s 1 September Stocks Report

If there is a surprise in the stocks reported today, it is the extremely tight ending 2013/14 soybean stocks of 92 million bushels, the lowest ending soybe...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

Tunisia's government reported that the 2014 grain crop is up by about 80 percent at 2.34 MMT. It was also noted that there will be a very significant drop...

End of the Fiscal Year Snapshot

The short-term snapshot paints a rosy scenario for the federal budget with a lowered deficit, growing economy and strong revenues. However, if the current...

Market Commentary

Besides the ongoing anticipation of huge crop production and building stocks, markets ran into headwinds from outside factors as well today. General Commen...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Oilseed Highlights

The Chinese government's refusal to approve the two new biotech soybean events was known to U.S. soybean growers and officials in the biotech industry at l...

Trade Policy Realities

EU Trade Commissioner-designate Cecilia Malmström told an EU Parliament panel yesterday that the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP)...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Putting the Squeeze on Switchgrass?

Most cellulosic ethanol today is made from crop residue as corn stover and wheat stalks are easily coprocessed at current corn ethanol plant locations. Swi...

Market Commentary

Today's higher price action in the nearby November soybean contracts is likely continue in the short term, irrespective of the contents of tomorrow's USDA...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

China In-Country Analysis

At a recent national seed conference in China, it was indicated that a new seed law is under development that will focus on amendment of the PRV, seed labe...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

Russian and Ukrainian wheat has lost competitiveness to the French, German, Polish and other Baltic origins. Russia has exported about 10 MMT of wheat sinc...

USDA Quarterly Stocks Report

These quarterly stocks numbers have been critical market factors over the past several years when corn, soybean and wheat supplies were very tight. That wi...

Money Wasted; Pandering; Confusion; Smearing

The Observer reports Chinese President Xi Jinping declaring that his country must boldly pursue agricultural biotechnology and not allow foreign companies...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

The government of India (GOI) released the food grain production data last week, and estimates indicate the 2014/15 kharif production at 120.27 MMT, a 6.94...

Looking for “Minor” New Crop Bids

The minor crops will have the advantage in the 2015 growing season as farmers are again looking for alternatives to corn, soybeans and wheat. However, the...

RFS; Biotech Wheat; Food Disease

While foodies pursue the newest modern food to pillory and the latest ancient orphan crop to ordain with faddism, the more serious participants in food res...

Farm Bill Sign Up to Begin Next Week

Farmers will have until midwinter to complete the update of base acres and make their one-time irrevocable decision on whether to enroll in the Price Loss...

Market Commentary

Markets started the night session little changed, but the soy complex eventually worked lower and again set new contract lows in the process. Good weather...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Oilseed Highlights

The general outlook for China's animal protein and feed sectors over the next year is positive. The industry is confident the lower feed prices will result...

Yen; Breakout; Labeling

Brazilian presidential candidate Marina Silva is an environmentalist in a highly protectionist country, and yet she appears ready to break the mold on her...

Canada and Korea Sign FTA

Trade talks have been on-again/off-again since 2008. In fact, Canadian beef regained access to Korea in 2012 after a ban due to bovine spongiform encephalo...

Oilseed Highlights

The general outlook for China's animal protein and feed sectors over the next year is positive. The industry is confident the lower feed prices will result...

Cycles

Since commodity prices have moved up and down in a cyclical fashion as long as prices have been recorded, there has developed a cottage industry of economi...

Market Commentary

Any semblance of yesterday's mini-rally disappeared during the day session that once again saw the nearby contracts for corn, soybeans and Chicago wheat si...

Blistering; Arbitrage; Named; Trends

In a blistering attack, 90 scientists reportedly sent a letter to President Obama urging him to make FDA decide one way or another on AquaBounty's nearly t...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Market Commentary

Surprisingly, wheat was the market's leader today. More specifically, it was Chicago wheat leading the way after posting new contract lows and the lowest p...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Ukraine's Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food reported that the country has exported 7.4 MMT of grain as of 19 September 2014 and from the beginning of MY...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange recently toured the region south of Buenos Aires and estimates that 150,000 hectares have been entirely lost to flooding. T...

Oilseed Highlights

The large rise in China's soymeal exports to nearby markets has been mostly due to the lack of availability this year of the less expensive Indian soymeal...

Irony or Cynicism; Reeducation; Poison

New Delhi is single-handedly blocking implementation of a Trade Facilitation Agreement (TFA) that is designed to reduce barriers to trade with the very cou...

Republican Senate Means Very Different Ag Committee

There will be five current committee members retiring at the end of 2014, three Democrats and two Republicans. With a change in party control, the Republic...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

Egypt's GASC had a very busy week with two tenders and surprising purchases of wheat from France and the U.S. It bought 180,000 MT of French wheat at an av...

Market Commentary

Corn futures traded fractionally higher before turning down again. Soybean futures prices traded both sides of unchanged and were actually higher during mu...

Searching for Demand

One role that the market must play is to discover how low prices must drop to uncover demand. Obviously, this becomes more difficult when supplies are risi...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

Farmers in Romania and Bulgaria refuse to sell wheat at the current export parity, and the only trades reported in the domestic market are purchases from l...

TPP Closeout; Pot and Alcohol Votes

Japanese Economy Minister and lead Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) negotiator Akira Amari will spend the next couple of days with his U.S. counterpart, Mic...

A Few More Things to Keep You Up at Night

The market is assuming another record Brazilian soybean crop in 2015, based on more planted acres and another super yield. One potential impediment to this...

Market Commentary

Soybeans set new contract lows today by a wide margin, dropping to $9.34. Wheat stabilized on news that Egypt had purchased a cargo of U.S. wheat for the f...

China In-Country Analysis

The majority of China's soybean crushers are competitively keeping their plants' utilization rates up as available soybean stocks at the 20 major seaports...

Farm Program Budget Numbers Growing

It is difficult to predict what the final farm program payments will be as based on harvest prices, contract prices, acres harvested and the like, but the...

Legislative Wrap Up for 2014

The stage is set for members of Congress to return to their states and districts for campaigning. Republicans who control the House will highlight the bill...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Market Commentary

USDA announced additional export sales of corn and soybeans today, but the market paid scant attention to those announcements. Instead, the focus continues...

Do Low Prices Mean Big Crop Insurance Payments?

There is a misconception that the revenue protection insurance program guarantees a price. It does not. It does, however, guarantee minimum dollars per acr...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Non-GM canola seed has been introduced in India by private seed companies. In 2013/14 40,000 acres of land was put under canola seed in Northern India, a f...

Scottish Fantasies; TPA or Not

A review of statements by the "Yes" campaign and others leaves a confusing picture of Scottish agricultural policy as we await the results of today's seces...

Oilseed Highlights

There is word that soymeal is in very short supply across the Midwest because crushers simply cannot acquire the soybeans they want to process. Several pro...

Market Commentary

Weather forecasts for the Corn Belt and northern plains look warm and dry and we are on the eve of record U.S. corn and soybean harvests. The only question...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Cattle and Beef Halfway Through 2014

Beef production for the first half of the year was just over 12 billion pounds and is projected at 24.5 billion pounds for the year, which would be the sma...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Ukraine's State Statistic Service reports that total stocks of grain in the Ukrainian enterprises that store and process grain amounted to 23.4 MMT on 1 Se...

Biotech Religion; WTO’s Role; CFTC Punishment

Following the NAS's two-day agricultural biotechnology conference, one biotech industry rep lamented that it will take two years for a report to be drafted...

Market Commentary

Market news remains tough to find. The market is marking time until the corn and soybean harvests reach the Corn Belt. So far, yields across the Delta and...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

The only new crop commodity in Argentina that is operating with a semblance of normalcy (but with scarce volume) is soybeans. Argentine farmers have alread...

Market Commentary

Today's market rally was caused by the release of the USDA/FSA acreage numbers that (again) suggest the USDA/NASS acreage estimates are too big. The big qu...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

Of great concern to wheat buyers in the region is the quality of France's wheat supply this season. It has been estimated that in excess of 50 percent of t...

Oilseed Highlights

Traders say China's soybean crushers currently are losing as much as $65 on every ton they process. They claim the poor margins are a result of China's slo...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

U.S. Government Funding Solution

Federal funding runs out exactly two weeks from today. Both sides of the Congressional aisle reportedly want a “clean” CR, meaning no extraneous provisions...

FSA September Acreage Numbers Release Brings More Confusion

Regardless of how you view and asses these different acreage estimates, they will impact the final crop production estimates and they strongly suggest smal...

Scottish Signals; Wave or Gridlock

Recent events are proving wrong the notion that history leads us to a fully integrated and borderless world. The march of history is uneven, and thus globa...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

Farmers in Bulgaria and Romania will start planting winter wheat in the coming weeks, and planting conditions are optimal. The soil moisture is abundant af...

Market Commentary

Weather across the Corn Belt and northern plains looks nearly perfect for the next two weeks and maybe beyond. Perfect is warm temperatures and below-norma...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Little Frost Damage, Better Weather Ahead

The markets were firm last Friday just in case it got colder across a wider area than expected, but that didn't happen. It is possible that as the week rol...

Commodity Risk in QE Easing

The Fed's easy money policy has not sparked inflation to date, but more effectively it served as a cushion for the lack of risk taking in an uncertain econ...

China In-Country Analysis

Recently released economic indicators imply that the economic recovery in China is struggling, which could reduce protein consumption and drive down the de...

Ironies; Dribble; Sino-Phobia

The U.S. National Academy of Sciences' Committee on Genetically Engineered Crops held its first of many planned public input sessions to build background f...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

India is the world's second-largest rice producer and has huge surplus stocks in warehouses. After a 30-year gap, however, GOI will be importing rice this...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Market Commentary

Overnight markets were mixed to just slightly higher. Weather beyond this weekend across the country looks warmer and dry, and that is exactly what the cro...

European Double Toil and Trouble

EU President-elect Jean-Claude Juncker has asked Commissioner-designate for Health and Food Safety Vytenis Andriukaitis to conduct a six-month review of th...

Agricultural Lenders Are Getting Spooked

The message is that agricultural lenders are more than a little worried about the rapid and steep decline in prices as well as the resulting destruction to...

Tidbits on Biofuels

The American Petroleum Institute (API) is worried that the administration is considering E85 as a way to increase the proposed 2014 Renewable Fuel Standard...

Market Commentary

Today USDA published the first WASDE for the 2014/15 crop year for both corn and soybeans, and the report was more bearish than the average of market expec...

Oilseed Highlights

Stoller Enterprises, a Houston-based agronomic firm, announced yesterday that it was able to harvest 214.7 bushels of soybeans per acre (14.44 MT/hectare)...

Out-Liars in the Policy Debate

The Pesticide Action Network (PAN) of North America has been called out for trying to undermine the credibility of a National Research Council conference a...

Business Opportunity in the Global Wheat Market

The writing is on the wall that wheat export opportunities to Asian countries are likely to rise, especially for any global producer of a consistent produc...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Pork and TPP

The U.S. National Pork Producer Council (NPPC) has issued a statement to the entire group of negotiators involved with the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP)...

Market Commentary

After three down days in a row, the corn market finally managed a positive close even if only by a penny or so as the market awaits tomorrow's report. The...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Argentine farmer are heading into the corn planting season, and expectations are that more acreage will be planted early as this past year's strategy of do...

EU Governance; Cellulosic Amateurishness

The cellulosic ethanol industry would not exist if not for the mandate by the U.S. government that its otherwise uneconomic product be used by American con...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Ukraine's 2014 grain production is expected to total 58.5 MMT, 7 percent less than in 2013. This includes 21 MMT of wheat, 7.9 MMT of barley and 27.8 MMT o...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Oilseed Highlights

A California company announced this week that it has successfully developed a hybrid jatropha variety which has high yield, rapid time maturity and a non-t...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

Along with Egypt's new wheat relationship with Russia, there is news that it will have a direct freight service to Black Sea Russia in order to facilitate...

Market Commentary

Corn, wheat and soybean futures prices all posted new contract lows during the day session today in slow trade. Momentum following funds continued to sell...

Budget Savings from Crop Insurance Premium Subsidies

According to the GAO, reducing premium subsidies for revenue policies could potentially result in hundreds of millions of dollars in annual budgetary savin...

Checkoff Trouble; Antimonopoly Guise

India has long manipulated its food and agriculture market in an effort to protect inefficient producers while concurrently feeding its hungry. However, no...

To Label or Not To Label?

Proponents of GM food labeling avoid attacking GMOs themselves. In an effort to evade having to contend with the overwhelming weight of the science that de...

China In-Country Analysis

China's Ministry of Agriculture (MOA) recently announced that biotech applications can be submitted online effective 1 September as part of its efforts to...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

Ukrainian feed wheat is by far the cheapest origin at $192/MT FOB as the Romanian/Bulgarian is at least $10/MT higher. French feed wheat is nominally aroun...

Market Commentary

Wheat struggled with corn and soybeans during the first half of today's session, but the selling seemed to dry up before noon.There was actually light buyi...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Frost Is in the Air

Temperatures across nearly all of western Canada and portions of the Northern Plains will drop to 15-25 degrees below normal by the middle of this week. Th...

Politics to Dominate Next Three Weeks’ Legislative Agenda

With the congressional midterm elections in the offing, political calculations are obviously at the root of everything. While this should prove to be a rau...

Agency Fixes

Timothy Massad is showing that he is a completely different chair of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) than his predecessor as he has announc...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Market Commentary

With the exception of soyoil, the soy complex gave us a small bounce overnight and this morning. The November contract set new contract lows yesterday at $...

The U.S. Position in the World of Shale Formation Reserves

The benefit of the shale and tight oil formations is that with the new technology available to recover gas and oil from these sources, large volumes can qu...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

As more of India's population consumes meat, particularly chicken, the country's poultry industry would like to reduce production as a means to increase pr...

Canadian Stocks and Other Issues

Last year's Canadian crops blew away previous production records by an incredibly wide margin. The 2014 crop production estimates are back to more normal l...

Letters on India

India's agricultural exports are growing fast, and it is not the result of having negotiated reciprocal trade liberalization agreements. Its average applie...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

The Politics of Corn

We used to refer to wheat as the "political grain." However, it seems to have now been replaced by corn, which by any measurement is the largest and most i...

PEDv Vaccine Approved

Based on field trials, USDA has granted a conditional license for a vaccine developed by Zoetis to prevent Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea virus (PEDv). Continue...

Oilseed Highlights

The Malaysian government today exempted all exports of crude palm oil from its 4.5 percent export tax for the months of September and October. Palm oil exp...

Europe; Africa, Climate and Sugar

The U.S. dollar will be driven higher by inverse policies whereby Europe and Japan are increasing liquidity while the Federal Reserve is ending quantitativ...

Market Commentary

The soy complex, corn, Chicago wheat and MGE wheat all closed lower. Once again November soybeans, December corn and Chicago December wheat all set fresh c...

Market Commentary

Today was the day that grain and soy prices broke out of the relatively narrow price bands in which they had been stuck for the past month. The breakout to...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russia's agriculture ministry is planning to buy 4-4.5 MMT during the grain market interventions in the second half of September. These purchases are inten...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

While Argentine farmers retain a substantial volume of soybeans as a hedge against current economic conditions, lower FOB prices may actually force them to...

Hopes and Doubts

Germany is considered the strength of Europe, but if its supermarkets reflect the will of the people, the future seems dull. The country's top supermarkets...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Asia-Pacific Trade Policy

India  put the final nail in the coffin of the WTO's Doha Round with its upending of the Bali agreement from last year. This has left plurilateral pre...

Happy New Year, Soybeans!

The 2013/14 U.S. soybean crop year was a notable one for the soybean industry, and the new 2014/15 U.S. soybean year promises to be memorable as well.Lest...

Market Commentary

Corn prices chewed back and forth in a narrow 5-cent range before closing slightly lower, while the soy complex was an island of strength among commodities...

Budget Outlook through 2024

Revenues are expected to increase by about 8 percent this year versus last year to $3 trillion. They will rise from all major sources, including individual...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

Morocco's total 2014 grain production is expected to be down by about 30 percent versus a year ago with barley showing the largest decrease at 37 percent...

Oilseed Highlights

One of the issues certain to see a great deal of attention in Argentina's presidential election next year is the country's high export taxes on soybeans, w...

Farm Bill’s New Program Signup Starts with Dairy

USDA announced that the signup for the new Dairy Margin Protection Program (DMP) will begin 2 September and run through 28 November. It will allow farmers...

Things You Hear at Farm Shows

Some of the comments you read following these shows are insightful, while others make little sense. There are also a few that fit both categories.The late...

Market Commentary

The only markets that could hold gains today were September soybean and soymeal futures. Corn and wheat traded lower most of today's session with the new c...

APHIS Priorities; Non Sequitor

U.S. cattlemen are upset that USDA's Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) has proposed designating Argentina's Patagonia region as free of fo...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

There have been discussions about conducting an audit of the Food Corporation of India (FCI), which does not know how many stocks it is actually holding. I...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Ukraine and Grain

From the start of Ukraine's 2014/15 crop year on 1 July until 27 August, the country has exported a hefty volume of grains. However, the new southeastern f...

Policy Choices and Prospects

A recent survey asking which of the world's various farm policies is "the best" produced quite a strong response. Our most recent online survey showed a c...

WTO COOL Ruling Reportedly Against U.S.

Reports indicate that the WTO has once again ruled against the U.S. on country of origin labeling (COOL) and that Canada and Mexico may impose retaliatory...

Market Commentary

Wheat led the way, and Chicago wheat traded above its 50-day moving average for the first time in three months. Corn futures closed up mostly 3-4 cents und...

Oilseed Highlights

Reports out of China indicate some firms there have recently defaulted on palm oil purchases due to banks discontinuing loans. The one most notably impacte...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

As of 20 August 2014 and from the beginning of MY 2014/15, Russia exported 5.857 MMT of grains (22.7 percent more than during the same period in the previo...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Argentine farmers remain frustrated with their government's policies that are causing a consistent decline in the planting of grains (corn, wheat, barley)...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Market Commentary

Aside from the wheat markets' 5-7 cent gains, the balance of the market appeared to be marking time in very slow trade within relatively narrow trading ran...

Farm Policy; China; Green Error

Several Republican candidates are challenging the 2014 Farm Bill for its failure to cut food stamps more and better address its corporate welfare. Frustrat...

Awash in Records

The 2014/15 year of big crops will stand out all the more since it follows several years during which weather-related crop production problems in the U.S...

Oilseed Highlights

Pakistan has traditionally sourced most of its soymeal from India and more recently from Argentina. A combination of factors has now caused  Pakistani...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

Turkey has had quite a difficult crop year thus far with wheat barley and corn production appearing to be down by about 10 percent on average. It is expect...

More Nuanced Look at Labor from the Federal Reserve

It is almost as if the Fed is looking for excuses to continue easy money policies now that inflation is in the range it targeted and employment news would...

TPP; Disruptors; Food Prejudice

U.S. politicians have American industry now facing billions of dollars' worth of trade retaliation under the WTO for having tried to stymie food imports fr...

Market Commentary

The U.S. dollar index closed higher again, putting it at a 12-month high against many currencies to the benefit of competing exporters like Brazil, Russia...

Market Commentary

Corn actually behaved pretty well today, considering soybean futures were putting in new contract lows and wheat was also weak. Weekend rains coupled with...

China In-Country Analysis

The drought that continues to afflict China's corn belt is impacting the new crop. Some estimate that production will be cut by 7.5-8 MMT. As a result, the...

U.S. Spring Wheat Crop Headed for Trouble

Western Europe's wheat crop  and the U.S. hard red winter wheat crop both have major quality issues, and it now appears that the North American spring...

Communist Wine; Orwellian Organic

The Russian Parliament next week will consider legislation that would nationalize the country's wineries. A state monopoly on wine is contended to accompli...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

International Economic Roundup

Brazil is the seventh-largest economy in the world and has seen significant growth based on commodity exports to China. However, there are signs of weakeni...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Sugar Market Turnaround

Sugar took a big crash a year ago with the market price falling below loan forfeiture levels, but prices this year have tightened up and are potentially ge...

Market Commentary

Uncertainties in the Black Sea region and the strong old crop soybean market kept markets strong into the close today. The Pro Farmer Crop Tour across the...

Flurry of Policy Developments

U.S. farm groups have opposed the "top down" effort by U.S. EPA regulators attempting to dictate farming practices around the Chesapeake Bay, but they are...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

While India wants to liberalize trade with other nations, it has also come out strongly against the WTO and asserts that it is the organization itself that...

More Things to Keep You Up at Night

It is no longer profitable to plant corn with prices less than $3.00 a bushel across the northern Corn Belt, and we could be on the cusp of a significant a...

Oilseed Highlights

Canada's canola crop forecast is lower than expected as a result of reduced canola plantings and too much rainfall in parts of Manitoba and Saskatchewan as...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Cheaper Feed and Record Meat Prices Impact Livestock

Cattle and hog prices are feeling some pressure from lower wholesale meat prices, while the beef, pork and poultry sectors are all likely to benefit from l...

Dodd-Frank: Four Years After

That four years have passed and barely more than half of the required new regulations have been finalized is a sign of the complexities of the legislation...

Market Commentary

Some commercial buying of corn futures was noted today that helped the corn market close mostly 1-2 cents higher in moderate volume. Wheat futures closed h...

Immigration; Boogeyman; Mustard

Immigration reform proponents have reduced spending on the issue at the same time conservative politicians have increased their rhetoric against illegal im...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Ukraine's sea ports shipped 595,800 MT of grain cargos for export between 11-17 August. The most active importers during this period were Saudi Arabia (123...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Various participants in Argentina's corn market expected that prices could temporarily heat up when the government recently announced a shutdown of corn li...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Market Commentary

Overnight trading saw corn and soybean futures prices edge lower, while wheat values firmed a few cents. In truth, there was nothing around to inspire trad...

Infrastructure Problems; Old Ships

The failure to undertake infrastructure improvements is now burdening commerce in the U.S. the same way it does in Brazil. U.S. of Brazil During the Great...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

In light of the sanctions imposed against Russia, grain/oilseed-importing countries in the region such as Turkey, Egypt and Morocco are looking very closel...

Market Commentary

It feels as though the corn and wheat markets are in something of a lull. Prices of both have already fallen so far that sellers have become reluctant to p...

Soybeans: Out with the Old, In with the New

There is always some tension in the transition between the old soybean crop year and the new one. The time gap between the statistical end of the old crop...

Oilseed Highlights

One of the bright spots for global soybean demand in the past two decades has been Southeast Asia, which has had solid economic growth in recent years as w...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Backtracking; Treadmill; Hoodwinked; Invest

Blaming fast food and sugar for obesity has been easy because attacking agribusiness bears little political cost. Now Britain's Institute of Economic Affai...

China In-Country Analysis

The most recent China Customs data indicates that soybean imports in July reached 7.47 MMT, substantially higher than the official estimate of 5.87 MMT,&nb...

Policy Choices; Ethanol Room; Africa

Even if the FSA data has indicated a slightly lower acreage, the U.S. is still going to produce an exceptionally large corn crop. Meanwhile, U.S. EPA may w...

Market Commentary

Markets were mixed overnight with corn higher, wheat lower and soybeans mixed. There was no escalation in the Russia/Ukraine situation and that led to anot...

U.S. Situation Improves, but Shuttles Still Expensive

The key to shuttle freight values will be what the turn times are through the harvest and into the winter. The railroads were able to essentially triple th...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

Quality problems with the wheat crop in France and Germany will certainly reduce the EU's export potential. However, the resulting sharp drop in EU wheat e...

Farmland Values: Effects of Crops versus Livestock and Dairy

Farmland values in the Midwest have been dropping, based on near perfect growing conditions and an anticipation of a bumper crop this year for corn and soy...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Due to the Indian monsoon's slow start and its current lull as well as the delayed sowing, some of the major crops' yields could be small. India also may n...

Market Commentary

Wheat was trading steady to slightly lower overnight until reports hit the news that Ukraine had fired on a Russian truck convoy within its borders. That p...

Propane Outlook

After propane demand for drying crops in the upper Midwest surged and reduced inventories just before the start of winter last year, the season when it is...

Reflection; Gripe; Rotary Dial; Sweet News

The German leak of one-third of a 1,500 page Canada-EU Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) involved more a gripe about the investor state dis...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

More Confusion on U.S. Acres

One of the more puzzling aspects of USDA reports always seems to be the planted acreage estimates. In part, that is because there are two separate USDA age...

WASDE

USDA raised its total red meat and poultry production forecasts in the August WASDE report that was released this week. These increases were based on heavi...

Market Commentary

The sharply higher basis levels for spot soybeans and the antics of the expiring August contract rippled throughout the rest of the soybean market and even...

Where Are We Headed Now?

Any way one slices the numbers, the world has rapidly shifted from years of concerns about tight supplies of grains and soybeans toward questions about wha...

Embargo Blowback; Muddled Salt

There is no doubt that the Russian food import embargo is stinging exporters, particularly in Europe, but the West needs to hold a kumbaya on the situation...

Oilseed Highlights

Throughout the past year, USDA has been forecasting China's soybean imports in MY 2013/14 would reach 69 MMT, but that estimate may actually be too pessiim...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Market Commentary

USDA's estimates for U.S. and world grain and soybean production and stocks continued to reverberate throughout the markets. The shift to record crops and...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Argentine farmer selling of soybeans is under 50 percent for the present campaign. It is doubtful that any additional beans will be sold to China from Sept...

Cereal Coercion; Sustainability

Environmentalists and some members of Congress are demanding that the government not approve Dow's Enlist Duo, genetically modified corn and soybeans that...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Ukraine's harvest totaled 33.764 MMT of grains and pulses as of 11 August, which included 9.12 MMT of barley, 23.348 MMT of wheat and 429,000 MT of rye.&nb...

Argentine Biodiesel Import Issues

There are actually two issues here. The first is the alternative biomass tracking process, which will run its course, and the second is Argentina's Differe...

Market Commentary

USDA's conservative U.S. corn yield of 167.4 bushels/acre and production estimate of 14.032 billion bushels probably disappointed corn market bears, but th...

Troika; 91%; Onions

Notable is the decision by Kazakhstan and Belarus, the other two-thirds of the Russian-led Eurasian Customs Union, to not join Moscow in its food import bo...

Oilseed Highlights

Oil World is reporting this week that biodiesel production in Argentina and Brazil will increase sharply in both countries this year with Brazil's producti...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

Syria does not seem to be any closer to finalizing its wheat sale to Iraq as the government reported last week that 200,000 MT were awaiting shipment, but...

Forecasts from the August WASDE

Whether or not one considers today's August WASDE to be bearish depends on one's pre-report assumptions and the extent to which bearish expectations have a...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Crop Insurance Premium Subsidies

The underlying fundamental issue with  crop insurance is its actuarial soundness, and gaining higher levels of coverage through premium subsidies has...

Market Commentary

The traditional trading funds are still reportedly long just over 70,000 contracts of corn. If that length is liquidated on a really bearish USDA report to...

China In-Country Analysis

After serious food safetly problems in recent years, China's Ministry of Agriculture and the National Health and Family Planning Commissions jointly issued...

Russia; Bots; Rice

Russia is over six times more important as an export market for Europe's farmers than it is for their American counterparts (€12.2 billion versus $1.9 bill...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

The Romanian and Bulgarian wheat harvest has finally been completed after a long delay due to the excessive rainfall in July and early August. Quality has...

U.S. Crop Revenue Assurance Guarantees Will Be Sharply Lower in 2015

Next year's program prices will not be established until February, so It is very early to be discussing what might happen in 2015 from a production standpo...

Tuesday’s USDA Numbers Almost Have to be Bearish

There seems to be little doubt the production estimates will go up from the record corn and soybean yields already used in the July WASDE. The only questio...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

India's Ministry of External Affairs has suggested that it could allow U.S. chicken legs free entry into India if the U.S. permits imports of Indian basmat...

Control of the Senate: Ag Committee Turnover

Of all the Senate win and loss combinations to change party control of that body, the Agriculture Committee plays a key role with five of its members retir...

Market Commentary

Rumors that Moscow might be withdrawing slightly from its aggressive posture with Ukraine seemed to trigger a wave of selling across the wheat markets. Cor...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Change the Campaign

There has to be a market for biotech or else there will be no premium for non-biotech/organic. The opportunity missed by conventional agriculture continues...

Ag Review: Timing the Commodity Cycle

Taming the Commodity Cycle Instead of reducing the biofuel mandate, policymakers need to make it a countercyclical approach to balancing supply and demand...

Russia Case; TTP/TPP; Government

China is prohibiting government procurement of all Apple products and Moscow has announced food import bans that only crudely reference any kind of WTO jus...

Market Commentary

Overnight trading in grain and soy futures was quiet and mixed. Grains were slightly weaker, while late buying brought soybeans modestly higher. Trade duri...

Hoping Against Hope

There seems to be a common thread emerging among many people with vested interests in corn and soybean prices and what direction they take. Farmers, cash g...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Oilseed Highlights

Argentina's Buenos Aires Grain Exchange today indicated the nation's soybean crop in 2014 totaled a record 55.5 MMT, while Brazil's Conab reduced its estim...

Russia Bans U.S. Meat and Dairy Products Imports

As retaliation for sanctions imposed on its energy, financial and weapons manufacturing sectors, Russia has banned a number of U.S.ag products, particularl...

Market Commentary

Funds bought around 8,000 contracts of corn to fuel today's price rally, which took place despite rains in the western Corn Belt. The rally also ignored a...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Dead Zones; Rating Africa; Trade Games; Water

One initiative arising out of the U.S.-Africa Leaders' Summit this week in Washington is a commitment by the U.S. Agency for International Development to p...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Argentine corn premiums continue to decline, and the potential export surplus is close to 4.5 MMT. It may be difficult to find demand for such volume due t...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Ukraine's winter wheat harvest has reached its highest record level ever. This includes the period since the country became independent as well as the time...

Oilseed Highlights

The French analytical firm Strategie Grains this week raised its forecast for the EU's rapeseed crop this year to a record 22.9 MMT, which is 400,000 MT ab...

Crops With and Without Problems

U.S. spring planted crops have enjoyed excellent conditions to date, and they do not seem to be facing any major problems – at least so far. However, the s...

Gridlock, Shopping and the Future

With around 50 heads of state in Washington this week for the U.S.-Africa Leaders' Summit, the streets are ablaze with the police sirens intended to keep t...

Dietary Guidelines: Politics on a Plate

Sustainability is the latest ingredient to be mixed in to the nutrition policy making process. It is also a topic that the Dietary Guidelines Committee has...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Market Commentary

It was "Turnaround Tuesday" for corn and soy complex futures today, but not for wheat. Outside markets offered no support for grains, soybeans and other co...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

Turkey's reduced crop production, resulting from several weather-related issues, is negatively impacting both wheat and barley exports as well as increasin...

American Idiot; Time to Challenge; Superfoods

India's Prime Minister Narenda Modi wants Washington to recognize that India is burdened with trying to help the poor. Meanwhile, the county spends $1.1 bi...

Stock Market Bearish Despite Fundamentals

Most of the causes for last week's stock market drop are outside of the U.S. as most domestic economic news is promising and supportive. However another po...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Canadian Crop Tour Yield Estimates Well Below 2013

Western Canada's producers will have several other issues to deal with as a result of the excessive rains. These could include another low protein spring w...

Market Commentary

Soybeans started last night with some follow-through selling from last Friday's weak day, but that selling quickly was absorbed by the short covering cause...

China In-Country Analysis

China exported 1.36 MMT of soymeal during the first half of 2014, a twofold surge over the first half of 2013. The average profit margin of Chinese soybean...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

After three weeks of incessant rains, the yield and quality of the wheat in the western regions of Bulgaria and Romania have been affected significantly. F...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

What Happened to the El Nino?

The Northern Hemisphere growing season of 2014 will have to rank as one of the calmest, most boring in a very long time, and an El Nino pattern had been ex...

Salmonella in Chicken: U.S. And Foreign Policy Roles

As the U.S. Department of Agriculture's Food Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS) today announced the New Poultry Inspection System (NPIS), which is intend...

Market Commentary

In today's market action, soybeans and corn prices fell again, while wheat prices firmed. Forecasts for rain next week kept the corn and soybean markets on...

Philosophy; Perfection; Self-Help; Tariffs

A letter from 140 U.S. House members is demanding that Japan fully open its market to U.S. agricultural products, or it should be kicked out of the Trans-P...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Although India's Prime Minister Modi recently emphasized the need to help farmers increase production with fewer inputs as well as less water and land, two...

Market Commentary

Corn continued to drift lower despite the weekly export number being above expectations. The November (new crop) soybean contract traded both sides of unch...

Court Upholds COOL

In a 9-2 decision this week, the U.S. Court of Appeals in the District of Columbia upheld USDA's rule for mandatory country-of-origin-labeling (COOL) for m...

India’s Bounty; Sector Comparison

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is certainly not going to allow Trade Faciitation (TF) to move forward without the WTO green light to subsidize India's...

Oilseed Highlights

The Brazilian Association of Vegetable Oil Industries (ABIOVE) said its members have not yet secured agreement with Monsanto on a royalty collection proced...

Legacies from the Great War

World War I had an impact on American agriculture that in some respects is still being felt today. To ensure there was enough food to feed the army, the U...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russia exported 3.9 MMT of corn as of 30 June and from the beginning of MY 2013/14, which is double the entire MY 2012/13 result. The largest importers wer...

Bitter Tax; Double Breakfast; Defensive Loser

Representative Rosa DeLauro (D-Connecticut) is again pushing her proposed national tax on sugar-sweetened beverages as the silver bullet solution to obesit...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Market Commentary

The pace of futures trade overnight and again today was considerably slower than in recent days. Prices for the soy complex were hammered again, while corn...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

The corn market in Argentina is currently quiet, and basis premiums weak. One reason is Argentine corn cannot compete in Colombia and Peru due to preferent...

Oilseed Highlights

One would think that with South America harvesting a record volume of soybeans in 2014, U.S. soybean export sales might lag a bit going into MY 2014/15. Ho...

New Regulations for Fuel Transport by Rail

Shippers of both ethanol and petroleum fuel are worried that the new, slower speed standards will cause more backlogs and the potential volume requirements...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

Jordan has increased the price paid to farmers for local wheat to $635/MT in the hope of increasing local production, while import quality wheat can be pur...

Fun and Games with Weather

Every summer in the U.S. produces some kind of a weather market. We had begun to wonder if the summer of 2014 was going to be a rare exception to that rule...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Leverage and Imbalances

Trade is increasingly distorted despite WTO tenets to the contrary, which is made evident by contrasting policies being enacted by various countries around...

Market Commentary

Futures prices for the soy complex and grains started out higher during the overnight session, but they soon turned lower. Today's weather model runs added...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Lower Prices Will Mean Smaller Margins

The six-year run of high commodity prices coupled with generally good yields and record net farm income have also allowed all of the ancillary industries t...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

Tthe wheat quality in Europe has suffered from the excessive rains during the harvest and seems to have deteriorated the most in France. As a consequence,...

Railroad Backlog Emerging as Market and Regulatory Issue

The railroads report that they are working on solutions to the rail backup problem for the fall grain harvest season, and BNSF projects that it is on track...

China In-Country Analysis

Although China has announced a record harvest this summer, a major concern among rural development researchers is sustainability, considering the combinati...

Market Commentary

Wheat could only manage a steady to slightly weaker day today as soybeans were very strong and corn closed a nickel higher. The market's attitude is still...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

While India's monsoon has somewhat rebounded, farming communities have been impacted by the delayed rains. Rural demand is diminishing with crop selection...

More Things to Keep You Up at Night

Credit Suisse announced this week that it will exit its commodity trading business after reporting a second quarter loss of $779 million, much of which is...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Horseless; Knowledge

Europe stymies beef imports while concurrently shorting the animal feed market, which collectively makes meat higher-priced for consumers and also creates...

Market Commentary

Wheat turned positive, corn tried to get back to unchanged and soybeans cut their losses significantly by mid-morning. All of the markets remain oversold t...

Republicans and Democrats Versus EPA

Two sets of U.S. senators met with administration officials this week to discuss actions pending at U.S. EPA and came away with very different reactions.Tw...

Oilseed Highlights

While many in the Indian soybean industry have hopes the country's crop yields and planted area will rise in the future, the prevailing view is that it wil...

Market Commentary

The increased trading activity overnight carried over into the day session, especially in the soy complex. However, the enthusiasm over higher prices dimme...

Global Pork Overview: Tale of Two Markets

While those countries most impacted by the Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea virus (PEDv) are seeing record-high pork prices, others are experiencing a much more b...

Meaning?; RFS; Correction

Antagonists on both sides of the Atlantic have complained about a lack of transparency in the TTIP negotiations. Now a recently leaked copy of the EU's dra...

How Big is Big and the Consequences

As the growing season has progressed, discussions about potential yields and crop sizes have come to dominate markets. However, it may turn out to be a mem...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

South American producers have more problems and less financial support than their North American counterparts, and such difficulties could easily transitio...

Pests; Broken; Sequence; Data

Brussels continues to rebut U.S. complaints about its biotech approval system, but not a single approval has occurred this year despite repeated safety cle...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

The Russian Ministry of Agriculture announced that 1.007 MMT of grain were exported as of 16 July 2014 and from the beginning of MY 2014/15 as Ukraine expo...

Market Commentary

Markets have been greatly oversold, as we have observed before, and were due for a bounce. So when the soy complex began to exert a little upward muscle, c...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

In light of recent large fines levied by the U.S. government on financial institutions for avoiding strict Sudanese trade sanctions, many banks and trading...

World Wheat Outlook

Wheat is still considered politically significant, especially in certain countries where it is the principal agricultural crop or a principal food. If worl...

Market Commentary

Yesterday afternoon's weekly crop condition report set the tone for today's corn market. The 76 percent good/excellent rating so late in July along with 56...

Oilseed Highlights

China's soymeal exports rose to 301,731 MT in June, a 128 percent increase over a year ago. The sharp rise has been driven primarily by a shortage of India...

A Bore; Reality

India commercially exports rice, soymeal and wheat, invests in a space program and has now committed billions to a BRICS bank. All the while, it claims pov...

CBO Releases Long-Term Budget Outlook

The 2011 and 2014 budget deals and the 2013 sequester have made a significant difference in total federal spending, mostly in the discretionary area, but h...

More Scrutiny for EPA’s Waters of the U.S. Rule

To date, the one EPA action that has triggered a complaint by the National Farmers Union (NFU) is the setting of the 2014 biofuels volumes, which its lette...

Projected Returns Drop below Break-Even Levels

The implication going forward is that corn acres are in jeopardy for the 2015 crop year under the current market price structure. Soybeans have had a signi...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

The weather remained unstable in Romania and Bulgaria last week, impacting the harvest. Exporters in Bulgaria are only offering feed wheat at the moment as...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

China In-Country Analysis

The latest USDA 30 June Acreage Report helped push down soybean futures significantly. As a result, Chinese soybean trading companies and crushers were hit...

TTIP Angst; Local Joke

Those on the U.S. agriculture side express disappointment that Brussels is still pushing geographic indicators in TTIP discussions, while bringing nothing...

Market Commentary

It is worthwhile noting that index funds are reportedly still holding about 300,000 long corn contracts. Corn condition ratings were unchanged in today's r...

Laughing; Ukraine; Hopeful and Concerning

It is Republicans who would be on the defensive in November if they are blocking a TPP agreement that has strong support from the business community. Laugh...

APHIS Withdraws GE Information Sharing Rule

The purpose of the rule was to help state and tribal governments better review and comment on the notifications and permit applications received by APHIS a...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

While India has been challenged over its recently enacted Food Security Act that is viewed by developed nations as a violation of the WTO Bali agreement, s...

Market Commentary

Soybean futures turned higher at the opening bell this morning on more USDA soybean sales announcements. Wheat futures turned sharply lower, which pulled c...

Bring on the Heat

Extended forecasts released yesterday continue to point toward cooler than normal temperatures for most of the Corn Belt. This means the soy complex could...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

FSIS Proposes Retailer Traceability for Ground Beef

USDA's Food Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS) has proposed new regulations to provide more information on the beef that is used for grinding, which woul...

Oilseed Highlights

Germany's biofuel industry association today said a new greenhouse gas reduction scheme passed yesterday is likely to result in reduced biofuel consumption...

Market Commentary

Corn futures closed fractionally higher in consolidating trade on both sides of yesterday's closes. The Malaysian plane disaster lit up the market, briefly...

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