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Trade Policy Hurdles

A Wilson Center panel on the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) today painted a mixed picture on the outlook for an agreement. TTIP Regu...

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Strategic Interests Everywhere

One country's strategic interest is another's free enterprise.One of the challenges for U.S. Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade negotiators is achieving...

Oilseed Highlights

It is rare that palm oil trades at a premium to soyoil, but a shortage is resulting in higher prices that are expected to lead to substantial increases in...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Ukraine has exported 26.8 MMT of grains as of 24 March 2014 with a total grain export forecast of  33 MMT for MY 2013/14. Russian Grain Markets Planti...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

There seems to be considerable demand to buy combos of Argentine corn and meal together as Argentine meal can help offset the price of corn, and both produ...

Market Commentary

Farmers are using the highest wheat prices they have seen in many months to price some of their anticipated production. General Comments The war of words b...

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Today's grain and oilseed prices...

Organic Fudge; EPA likes Ag; TTIP Quid Pro Quo

U.S. trade negotiators should view the EU's demand for recognition of its system of protected designations of origin (PDO) and protected geographical...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

Moody's is reviewing the ratings for 10 Turkish banks with the trade expecting that there could be a general downgrade for all involved, affecting their in...

Market Commentary

It has been a day of light trading volume and somewhat more limited price movements with corn closing lower, soybeans closing higher and mixed closes for w...

Many More Cattle on Feed

Last month's feeder calf placements data points to a changing supply situation for the beef market next quarter. Similarly, feedlots' fed cattle marketings...

Global Derivatives Trade Rebounds - Slightly

As we all know, 2012 was a very difficult year for the derivatives world. The good news in 2013 is that the volume plunge was reversed.Detailed annual data...

Correction

The analysis piece entitled "March Madness" in the 21 March edition of Ag Perspectives contains two errors.The analysis piece entitled "March Madness" in t...

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Today's grain and oilseed prices...

No Carry in Corn

If the smart money is betting that corn ending supplies will increase from 1.5 billion bushels this year to more than 2 billion next year, shouldn't we be...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

Ukraine's export program from its ports currently appears to be undisturbed by the crisis. However, several Russian banks reportedly have stopped providing...

China In-Country Analysis

The Agricultural Development Bank of China (ADBC) recently urged the government to accelerate the sales of reserve grains and cottons. Borrowing for the st...

Skewing Climate, Country and Organic

The European Commission's Trade and Investment Barriers Report 2014 takes issue with the U.S. approach of approving meat inspection equivalency on a countr...

Market Commentary

Soybeans, corn and wheat all rallied sharply on what looked like fund buying after Europe came to work today, which is when the fireworks started. General...

Disconnect in Russia; Cellulosic Folly; Religion

Politicians in the West often do not understand market economics, so it is understandable that a former KGB spy uses fiat instead of making a business deal...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Rising domestic feed prices and GOI's ban on soymeal imports are expected to have a strong negative impact on India's poultry industry. Declining Indian Oi...

March Madness

March Madness is the term used to describe the NCAA national college basketball tournament because there are typically numerous upsets. It has now started...

Latest Consumer Trend in Food: Agricultural Land

The potential new trend now is land rights, or at least land acquisition. While not a primary issue for U.S agriculture yet, it is a new, complicating fact...

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Today's grain and oilseed prices...

Market Commentary

Wheat behaved like the soy complex today. Yesterday's big reversals off the highs brought some fund selling and other profit taking, keeping all three whea...

Market Commentary

The overnight session did not prepare markets for the volatile price action that was the feature of today. General Comments President Obama announced more...

The Risky World Soybean Market

U.S. soybean derivatives are essentially the only exchange-traded hedging vehicle available to the world soybean market. It works when circumstances allow...

Oilseed Highlights

There have been reports that Chinese crushers are seeking to cancel or resell up to 30 cargoes of South American soybeans due to poor margins. Chinese Soy...

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Today's grain and oilseed prices...

Milk Production, Exports and Margin Insurance

Dairy producers are entering a new era with milk exports at about twice their traditional level and about 50 percent greater than recent highs. This trend...

Risk in Russia; Fake Meat and Salt Water; Attribute Risk

One national security analyst said that success in the Crimean situation is not allowing Russia-U.S. relations to spin out of control, and yet it spiraled...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

CBOT futures may presently be rallying, but there is no demand for Brazilian soybeans from Chinese buyers. Soybeans: Brazilian Prices No Longer Inverted Th...

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Today's grain and oilseed prices...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 10-14 March 2014Market TrendsPrices continued to increase, especially corn and wheat, due to the RUB depreciation and the Crimean po...

Trade Policy Football; Dispute China; Quotable

TPA approval will require the Democratic Party elites to stand up to organized labor and the protectionists, much the way Main Street Republicans have begu...

Market Commentary

The Fed's latest take on the U.S. economy is still seeing positive growth, although the rate of growth has slowed somewhat due in part to the severe winter...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Ukraine's export capacity is not expected to be negatively impacted by the potential loss of ports in Crimea as they represent only a small percentage of t...

Oilseed Highlights

Argentine exporters are facing shipping delays because of a ship blockage on the Parana River and may soon also encounter a port workers' strike. Brazil Cr...

Rationing Demand for U.S. Soybeans

While total available 2013/14 U.S. soybean supplies are about 225 million bushels greater than the 2012/13 total, all of the additional supplies are being...

Market Commentary

After sputtering about yesterday and again early in the overnight session, grain and soy futures markets bounced firmly higher today, but why is not exactl...

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Today's grain and oilseed prices...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

Buyers in the Levant, particularly Jordan and Syria, who source all of their corn from Ukraine are very concerned about a possible force majeure situation,...

Ag Block; Fertilizer BS; Crimea

Mega-retailer Walmart announced that it will require suppliers of agricultural crops to reduce fertilizer use on 20 million acres by 2020. Ag is Stumbling...

Food Inflation 2014

The rate of inflation for food increased 0.4 percent in February 2014, which was four times the core rate and the highest monthly increase since September...

Ukraine And Russian WTO Implementation

Based on Russia's actions in 2013, there is seemingly enough reason for the U.S. to impose dispute resolution processes with that country in the WTO.The cu...

Miscellaneous Monday

Brussels has been increasingly providing administrative flexibility to EU member states, including the current effort to make the planting of biotech crops...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

The Black Sea market is firm as offers are difficult to find and also nervous about possible cancellations (force majeure). Milling Wheat The Black Sea mar...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

Market Commentary

Today's immediate trader response to the current Black Sea situation was that the short-term risk was now off, and some of Friday's long positions were liq...

China In-Country Analysis

According to China Customs, soybean stocks in major Chinese seaports reached 5.57 MMT as of 10 March, an increase of 10,000 MT from the previous month. Oil...

Variable Daily Trading Limits to Arrive 1 May

We don’t know what all of this new math’s real impact will be on the markets.The CBOT Group continues to mess around with the futures markets. We’re never...

TTIP Strategy; Aiding Ukraine

The Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) negotiations are hung up on tariffs, but Europe's aspiration for geographical indicators is an ar...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

The extreme prevailing weather conditions continue to damage crops, leading to a belief that climate change is here to stay and that the El Nino factor wil...

Interior Basis Levels Sick–the System is Plugged

Corn and soybean basis in the northern interior have plummeted to what might be all-time lows for several reasons.Demand for corn, wheat, soybeans, canola,...

Market Commentary

Wheat continues to confound market analysts who are searching for a reason for its strong rally. General Comments Markets started the night session lower a...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

House Ag Submits Views and Estimates to Budget Committee

The letter makes the case for protecting farm bill spending from any further cuts under the FY 2015 budget.Under the federal budget process, each of the co...

Hindsight and Foresight

If the factors we point to in hindsight are largely responsible for the recent upturn in grain and soy prices, what about foresight? What is likely to happ...

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Today's grain and oilseed prices...

Market Commentary

Concern over the Ukrainian situation is given as the reason for today's U.S. stock market plunge. Grain and soy markets chopped around on both sides of yes...

Heifer Delivery on Cattle Contracts Coming

CME's research into the cattle trade discovered that while heifers are lighter, they are more uniform and higher yielding than steers and frequently have h...

Farm Bill Spending; Failed UN Employee

While FAPRI's Baseline Briefing Book predicts a spike in farm bill spending due to lower crop prices, its forecast could affect farm program signup. Farm B...

Oilseed Highlights

Conab reduced its estimate for Brazil's 2014 soybean crop, disappointing the government that had predicted the country would for the first time have a larg...

Market Commentary

Today's grain and soy markets saw a tug of war develop between the strength of wheat and the weakness of soybeans with corn caught in the middle. General C...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Total Argentine farmer selling of corn has now reached approximately 2.3 MMT, 10 percent of the expected crop. Although the harvest has been active this pa...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

The volume of grain dispatched from Ukraine's sea ports has not been negatively affected by the Crimean crisis. Meanwhile, Russia's agriculture ministry in...

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Today's grain and oilseed prices...

Slowing Trade Negotiations; Invasive

The impact of the United States-Korea Free Trade Agreement means that TTIP and TPP will have to result in impressive trade policy improvements for the U.S...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

Ukraine's recent corn price increases have made the supply to North Africa much less competitive.  It appears that importers of larger vessels will pr...

Oilseed Highlights

As a result of the Argentine government's price controls on biodiesel, producers have decreased production and there is not enough available to supply the...

Farm Bill Fatigue; Deceptions

One congressional assertion is that making agriculture a bigger tent will ensure that future farm bills go more smoothly. Farm Bill Cost No Issue The Congr...

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Today's grain and oilseed prices...

Biodiesel Tax Credit: What Will Happen?

Biodiesel critics and advocates both noted that there was no proposal in the president's budget to extend the biodiesel blenders' credit. This has sparked...

Updated Outlook for U.S. Corn

The big rally in corn futures prices during the past two months does stand out and has analysts asking themselves if this marching bull corn market can be...

Market Commentary

Although there does not appear to be any disruption in Black Sea grain shipments or in early spring planting in Ukraine so far, the situation remains a maj...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

China In-Country Analysis

China has recently issued a series of policies to promote family farms that could also mean that the freedom to transfer and consolidate land will be estab...

March USDA WASDE Doesn’t Change Much

The trade was looking for a slight increase in the corn export forecast and that's what it got, while there might have been some disappointment that the co...

House Ag Appropriations Hearing

Overall, USDA is seeking a reduction in discretionary outlays of $2.638 billion from what it is projected to receive in FY 2014 under the continuing resolu...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

The Black Sea wheat market remains firm due to the region's political tension, and there are no offers in Ukraine. Milling Wheat The Black Sea wheat marke...

Market Commentary

The actual WASDE numbers were a bit more positive than the trade estimate average, but that didn't slow the across-the-board selling. General Comments Mark...

Market Commentary

Corn futures started to falter when Canada's government made comments about forcing its railroads to move more grain and oilseeds. That helped push the oat...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

A lower sugarcane output and the slow start to its processing because of price issues have been cited as the major reasons for the decline in India's sugar...

Ag Review: Crop Planting Update

Planting on New Policy Transfer payments, technocrat speak for taxpayer money given to beneficiaries, amount to around 5 percent of farm income and can onl...

Changing Energy Markets

The shrinking U.S. demand for fuel obviously exacerbates the blend wall issue. However, the global demand for crude and petroleum fuel, up about 6.5 percen...

Technology Starts and Stops

U.S. aggies would say it is technology that will limit progress by U.S. and EU Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) negotiators next week...

Oilseed Highlights

The general view now is that India's 2013 soybean crop was no greater than 9 MMT, and the country is likely to face a severe soymeal shortage in the domest...

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Today's grain and oilseed prices...

More Things to Keep You Up at Night

The last 15-20 percent of Brazil's soybean harvest is being hurt by too much rain and will result in quality and yield loss. More importantly, the frequent...

Aggies on Trade; Zealots

Regulatory agencies have finally conceded, and USTR will now accept the concept of binding dispute settlement on sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) issues in...

Market Commentary

While there could be some profit taking by traders with long positions going into the weekend, the prospect that USDA could further increase its U.S. corn...

Trends, Trends, Trends

It is as important to know when a trend is about to run its course as it is to know when one is about to take off.Investors and speculators are forever see...

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Today's grain and oilseed prices...

Livestock Groups Rally Around Corn Ethanol RFS Repeal

A coalition of 11 livestock, poultry and dairy groups have called for committee hearings on the proposal by Representative Bob Goodlatte (R-Virginia) to re...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Overall, the Argentine wheat market is still depressed because of government policies. The only effective way to reactivate exports is to open the full quo...

Market Commentary

U.S. farmers continued to reward this week's price rally by selling significant quantities of corn, soybeans and wheat, and this has pressured cash basis b...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

There have not been any interruptions in work at the grain terminals of Sevastopol in regards to sea exports, according to the Ukrainian Agrarian Confedera...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

Ukraine; Greens; Obesity; Survey

Europe may not be ready to impose trade retaliation on Russia, but some members of the U.S. Congress are suggesting the use of WTO dispute settlement cases...

Oilseed Highlights

If trade between Russia and Ukraine is disrupted by the current situation, the oilseed most impacted will be soybeans. Oil World Reduces South American Soy...

The Soybean Market and Changing Perceptions

The current soybean market is a far cry from what most analysts expected, and we have once again been reminded that it is wise to be wary when there is a n...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

Budget Outtakes and Meat

The staff at the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) continues to watch their long ball knocked foul. Budget Outtakes Some observations on other pa...

President’s Budget Cuts Crop Insurance

The cuts proposed to the crop insurance program were not incorporated into the farm bill, which makes it unlikely that Congress will act on them any time s...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

A biotech conference in Ethiopia with African and European scientists last week has come out strongly in support of using agricultural biotechnology as a m...

Market Commentary

Financial markets heaved a big sigh of relief today when Russia pulled its troops away from the Ukrainian border, and stocks roared back to erase yesterday...

Bearish on Ukraine; Other Stuff

The situation in Ukraine is likely worse than many perceive at this time and with larger global impacts. Even North Korea realizes this is an opportunity f...

China In-Country Analysis

China's newly issued regulations regarding feed and feed additive imports appear to be consistent with the government's decision to improve the nation's fo...

The Olympics End, the Putin Games Begin

Just the fact that many uncertainties now exist between Russia and Ukraine will likely push more corn and wheat export business elsewhere where there isn't...

Market Commentary

The Black Sea problems brought short covering to the wheat markets and outright buying to corn and soybeans. There might also have been some support for wh...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

The uncertainty regarding the wheat export program from Ukraine and Russia in the upcoming months is a serious incentive for traders and consumers to incre...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

Market Commentary

Soybeans, corn and wheat all closed on or near the day's highs. That is a bullish technical picture for the last day of the week and the month. General Com...

Trouble, Excuses and More Trouble

Ukraine has become an important contributor to global food supplies in recent years, which raises the question of what happens if the political situation d...

2014 Crop Revenue Protection Prices Better Than Expected

If prices are high, as they have been the past two years, this program has guaranteed great profits regardless of yields or prices going forward.February w...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

GOI has made its intention very clear by announcing that it is committed to the use of biotech and other new technologies for agricultural development and...

Budget Process to Follow Course of the Farm Bill?

Federal spending is still front and center, and it is also an election year. The best bet for this year is that there will not be a congressional budget...

Oilseed Highlights

After several months of very profitable crush margins, the Chinese soybean crushing industry has seen margins collapse to very unprofitable levels in the l...

Market Commentary

The extreme movement of soybean prices first boosted grain prices, but ultimately pulled grains to lower closes as well. However, the grains were not trade...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

Fascinated by Export Sales

U.S. corn exports deviation from historic patterns has implications for what exports will be in the rest of the marketing year. Analysis of unshipped corn...

Cattle on Feed, Poultry Production Numbers

The dynamics between fed cattle marketings and placements are analyzed with their implications for next quarters' beef demand and pricing. Feedlot turnover...

TPA, Borlaug, Grass and Gluten

A study by Petr Havlik of the International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis concludes that the lower nutritional value of grass means that livestock...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Concerns have been mounting that Argentina could completely lose market share in wheat this season and may need to reduce prices by at least $20-30/MT in o...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Ukraine has exported 23.9 MMT of grains since the beginning of MY 2013/14. This is a 36.7 percent increase compared with the same period in MY 2012/13. Rus...

180; Intolerance; Who?; Stimulus

Somewhat late to a flawed game, the World Health Organization (WHO) is recommending taxes and regulatory restrictions to halt the course of obesity in mode...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

Market Commentary

Soybeans closed higher again for the 13th time during February with the May contract hitting another high. Only corn remained locked in its usual narrow tr...

TPP Threats; Getting Along; Manure

If adding labor to industry groups is a good idea, why not just throw all of the disparate interests onto the same committee and enjoy a literal three-ring...

Market Commentary

The CME March oats closed at an historic high of $5.03 today as U.S. oat supplies are being squeezed. Some of the big cereal makers reportedly have invento...

Federal Reserve Taper and Ag Trade

Lower commodity prices in the U.S. will help export market sales, but the catalyst will be the way monetary policy unfolds.In the last two policy meetings...

Commodities Beckon Again

It is interesting to see that investors and investment money managers have not totally forgotten about commodities.Historically, most conservative investor...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

According to a comment from Iran, Ukraine may not be able to complete their outstanding corn business because of its dwindling supplies and domestic unrest...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

Oilseed Highlights

The continued sale for export of so many of last year's soybeans increasingly suggests the 2013 U.S. soybean crop was larger than USDA is estimating. Big S...

“Farmed and Dangerous” Series Hits the Internet

The fight over the image of agriculture, livestock and the food industry has been ongoing for quite some time, but the battlefield is changing. Social medi...

China In-Country Analysis

China's government has issued guidelines calling for maintenance of the traditional diet as an increasing segment of the population is experiencing chronic...

U.S. 2014 Weather Talk Already Starting

There has been talk about the impact of this winter and even some special spring and summer forecasts that are highlighting how the current U.S. weather si...

Wagging Chemo-Phobes

Activists are clogging up U.S. EPA's public comment site on the proposed deregulation of biotech crops that are resistant to 2,4-D. Tail Wagging the Dog U...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

Market Commentary

There were several comments floating around about U.S. farmers planting more corn acres than a year ago because last year's profits were so big. That won't...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

It's difficult to assess the exact volume of Ukraine's remaining corn surplus as farmers logically prefer to keep grain instead of cash because of the coun...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

India is likely to produce 263.2 MMT of food grains in 2013/14. This is greater than the target of 259 MMT established by the agriculture ministry in Septe...

Market Commentary

Wheat futures have staged a significant rally since the February WASDE, which farmers have used to sell more wheat. The trouble across the northern Plains...

Budget Process Begins with a Leak

According to leaks from the administration, the president's spending blueprint will adhere to the Bipartisan Budget Act agreed to in December that set spen...

Outlook Conference is Behind Us

One of the primary reasons we said the Outlook Conference numbers would be bearish is that USDA has a history of using a best case scenario from a yield st...

Own Petard; Pick your Poison

The condition of China's cotton stocks is unknown, but it appears there is some confidence that Beijing will not dump its excess on the world market. Own P...

Market Commentary

The severe unrest in Ukraine has the world grain trade casting a wary eye on Black Sea loadings, interior Ukrainian logistics and possible spring planting...

USDA Outlook: Meat and Livestock

A quick rundown on the particulars for meat and livestock in USDA's baseline projections shows per capita meat consumption rising entirely due to chicken.U...

Oilseed Highlights

At the rate canola plantings are expanding in Canada, there may not be many years before the country's canola area surpasses its total wheat area. USDA For...

Fun Points from USDA Outlook

If crop insurance had to operate on actuarial soundness with premiums fully paid by farmers, its value would quickly decline over time. The belief continue...

What Is Wrong With Being Big?

Farming is like any other business that produces and sells goods and services. Its profitability depends on maximizing productivity, efficiency and economi...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

Market Commentary

If rains are disappointing this weekend in Brazil and Ukrainian political unrest continues, corn contracts could temporarily move higher without any assist...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

The Russian Grain Union supports the government resolution to allow GM seeds for use in sowing as of 1 June 2014. Russian Grain Markets: 12-18 February 201...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Market demand for soybeans has been rather slow this past week with everyone seemingly expecting basis to drop as farmers started selling throughout South...

Ill-Advised, Poor Protectionism, and Sugar Fight

With the Obama administration's allies abandoning it on the trade policy agenda, U.S.Trade Representative (USTR) Michael Froman announced a plan to try and...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

Market Commentary

Wheat, the soy complex and now corn are all re-emphasizing the lesson to both speculative and commercial traders that excessive reliance upon automated ind...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

According to a recent report, corn consumption in Saudi Arabia will increase by close to 23 percent in the next four years. This will all have to be import...

NAFTA, Farm Bill, TPP, Miscellaneous

Both Mexican President Enrique Pena Nieto and Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper will raise the issue of U.S. non-compliance with the WTO on country of...

Oilseed Highlights

In the last few years, food retailers in Europe have shifted away from requiring that the pork and poultry meat they market be fed only with non-biotech fe...

The Vagaries of Weather

This year's polar vortex brings a whole new focus on weather and its impact on the overall economy.Every speechwriter in Washington, DC who has put pen to...

Fractures, Cost and Opinions

Although the European Parliament voted against the biotech maize event 1507, the European Commission (EC) can still move forward in allowing planting to oc...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

A study has found that the crop losses in India resulting from pest-related infestations total $8 billion, and there is an opportunity for the pesticide in...

Market Commentary

First notice day for delivery against the March soybean and meal contracts is next week. That alone might keep the markets firm until we get into the deliv...

Presidents’ Day

Monday, 17 February is a U.S. holiday. Please note that our office will be closed and the next Ag Perpsectives will be published 18 February.Monday, 17 Feb...

Will Farm Bill Costs Shorten Its Life Span?

USDA's just-released 10-year baseline projections made a bigger splash than normal because of the recently passed farm bill.USDA released its 10-year basel...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

Presidents' Day

Monday, 17 February is a U.S. holiday. Please note that our office will be closed and the next Ag Perpsectives will be published 18 February.Monday, 17 Feb...

North American Logistics Not Getting Better

There are still more than 50 vessels waiting to load from the west coast of Canada. That totals more than 2 MMT of grain and oilseeds.We have written on se...

Oilseed Highlights

It is hard to predict large Chinese cancellations of U.S. soybean purchases when the country is buying more than it is canceling. China Testing U.S. Soybea...

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Today's grain and oilseed prices...

Baseline to Baseline

USDA cannot possibly construct a 10-year baseline that predicts or anticipates certain factors. The only thing we can say with confidence is that  une...

Market Commentary

Overnight trading started out with mixed results amid slack volume, but the soy complex started to rally during the wee hours and carried the grains along...

More Companies Join Trend on Protein Production Standards

In a first, Chick-fil-A restaurants announced a phaseout of all chicken raised with antibiotics within five years. More Companies Join Trend on Protein Pro...

Sustainability, Unsweet, Drop

Sustainability is the main charge against conventional agriculture, and the larger problem is that the antagonists successfully issue very general but plau...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

Trade Negotiations; Obesity Litigation

Lawyers have appealed to the states' attorney generals in 16 states seeking a class action lawsuit against the food industry similar to the successful one...

A Few Takeaways from the February WASDE

Markets seldom trade much in February on prospects for the next crop year, but Monday's WASDE definitely perked up attention. In fact, it was almost exciti...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Improved performance in the Brazilian ports has helped reduce the inverse in soybean contracts that has declined to about half the level it was in December...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian seaports increased the volume of grain shipments in January 2014 to 1.2 MMT, 2.9 times more than the total in January 2013. Russian Grain Markets:...

Market Commentary

If the presence of MIR 162 corn in Chinese soybean cargoes becomes a big problem, it could weaken exporters' abilities to fend off sales cancellations with...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

The African Agricultural Technology Foundation has received a grant through a USAID-funded program to be used for the commercialization of a Striga weed-re...

Market Commentary

There presently appears to be only one event that could cause aggressive price movement during the next three weeks: the threat related to wheat. General C...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

Oilseed Highlights

The Brazilian government's crop supply agency (Conab) today reduced its forecast for the Brazilian soybean crop to 90.01 MMT. Producers are also very conce...

Global Biofuel Growth

It would seem the real future growth for U.S. biofuels lies in the export market.New reports indicate that Navigant Research has released a study projectin...

Thoughts on Two Controversies

The same people who trust science in the pursuit of stem cell research, climate change mitigation and evolution throw it under the bus when it comes to foo...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

The EU allocated 872,000 MT of wheat export licenses last week, bringing the total to 18.2 MMT since the start of the campaign versus 11.7 MMT a year ago...

Market Commentary

Markets were quiet overnight and mostly lower with little news ahead of today's USDA WASDE report that was more positive than expected. General Comments Ma...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

Farm Bill Done: Debt Limit Up Next

Both the White House and the Republican House leadership are now positioning themselves as to what they each will demand from the debt ceiling legislation...

Bullish USDA WASDE Twice in a Row?

The simple fact is that demand for U.S. soybeans, corn and wheat has been much better than most analytical groups anticipated.USDA released the February WA...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

In a situation where milk demand is increasing by 10-11 percent and production by 3 percent, India may not be able to fulfill its needs in 2021 without dra...

Groups Seek National Solution to GMO Labeling

A group called the Coalition for Safe Affordable Food, headed by the Grocery Manufacturers Association (GMA) and the National Corn Growers Association (NCG...

Irrelevance; Offers and Withdrawals

EU trade negotiators will reportedly offer their U.S. counterparts tariff elimination on 96 percent of goods, and while tariffs will remain on sensitive pr...

Market Commentary

Corn confidently worked higher through this week. The soy complex tried to follow suit, while wheat traded in a rather indecisive manner. The reassuring fa...

U.S. Hard Red Winter Crop Has Problems

Dry conditions hurt HRW production in two of the last three years. It is looking more likely that this will again be the case in 2014. The only question is...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

Ag Review: The Outlook for 2014

2014 Agripalooza The market, government and technology development will all three conspire to change things in the agrifood sector in 2014. It will be exci...

Chairman; Vegetables; Bread

The  Senate's confirmation of Senator Max Baucus (D–Montana) as the new U.S. Ambassador to China has resulted in a vacancy on the powerful Finance Com...

Oilseed Highlights

Each week, the trade expects to see the cancellation of outstanding export sales of soybeans to China. Instead, however, there are even more sales to China...

It is Still about Supply and Demand

The market is being forced to re-evaluate demand by the surprisingly large volume of export sales since the beginning of 2014. This surging demand has also...

PEDv Cases Growing; New Strain Found

Iowa State University has announced that a new strain of the Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea virus (PEDv) has been discovered in samples taken from Illinois and...

Market Commentary

Grain and soy futures markets continue to follow a beat of their own. Much of the beat today was provided by another weekly export sales report that genera...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Agricultural products provided approximately 27 percent of all Ukrainian exports for 2013 with grains holding a very significant share of the total agricul...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

Trade Politics; Biotech; Zambia

Trade Promotion Authority (TPA) is dead for now, and the sudden protectionist pivot in Washington has created a sigh of relief by those in Japanese agricul...

Market Commentary

We see today's futures market action as less important for what it did than what it did not do, and suggest that even in a bear market pattern such as we h...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Argentine farmers are simply not offering their crops for export. A primary reason for this lack of selling is the spread between the official and the blac...

Oilseed Highlights

The Argentine government is so desperate for foreign exchange and government revenue that it is now threatening to fine farmers who do not sell their old c...

Senate Passes Farm Bill; Concerns Still Expressed

It is very likely that the livestock issues, crop insurance concerns, COOL and other matters will return in the upcoming appropriations process.The U.S. Se...

Farmers’ Major Decision

Today's final passage of a new U.S. farm law will pose a tricky decision for farmers – do they select the short-term protection of the Agriculture Risk Cov...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

The recent Egyptian purchase of Russian wheat is reportedly due to the weakness in the Russian ruble that has made Russian wheat exports more competitive i...

A Few Odds and Ends

There is a lot going on these days on both macro and micro levels that can have direct or indirect influence on grain markets and commodity markets as a wh...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

Market Commentary

Today's strong across-the-board rally by grain and soy futures is a throwback to the sort of price action seen during the bull market days of 2012/13. Gene...

Sino-American Policy Problems

The Chinese government continues to impose anti-dumping and countervailing duties against U.S. poultry products, and AmCham China implores Washington to fo...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

The recent change of the GASC terms that reduces the maximum allowed moisture content to 13 percent is a serious obstacle for French wheat. Without Egypt,...

China In-Country Analysis

At the peak of the Chinese New Year sales period, poultry traders have had to suspend business in some areas due to the bird flu epidemic. China's Hog Pric...

Market Commentary

A hint in the market suggests that Brazil's new crop logistics might not be any better than last year, although there is hope for an earlier start to the s...

2013 Biofuel RVO Data

The final numbers for 2013 support EPA's case to reduce the RVOs for 2014 due to the blend wall.EPA released the Required Volume Obligation (RVO) data unde...

Who Remembers Low Prices?

The current marketing environment will lead to some significant changes in attitudes.Two years ago, I hired a 28-year old to work with me in my farm market...

Trade Policy Prediction

When agreement is weak and a lot must get done, the political and logistical solution is big lumpy omnibus bills laden with lots of sweeteners to placate t...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

India's sugar industry is in dire straits and incurring huge losses. However, the government has created a Sugar Development Fund, and there will now be an...

More Things to Keep You Up at Night

There are now in excess of 50 vessels waiting to load at west coast Canadian port facilities, and the problem is getting product to the ports. This is begi...

State of the Union Hinting at the State of Fuel Standards?

The President's comments about natural gas vehicles raise the question of whether the renewable fuel standard (RFS) will inch toward an alternative fuel st...

Market Commentary

Markets in general have built more walls of worry this week over U.S. corporate earnings, emerging market concerns and slower growth in China. The bearish...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

Trade Policy after the Election

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nevada) does not want his vulnerable members to face any compromising votes before the November election. This means t...

Farm Bill Livestock Provisions

From a livestock perspective, the farm bill is notable for what provisions are not in it. Farm Bill Livestock Provisions From a livestock perspective, the...

Market Commentary

USDA/FAS reported export sales for last week of about 1.878 MMT of old crop corn and 105,700 MT of corn for 2014/15. The old crop sales exceeded by far wha...

Price Does Matter

Buyers/users are looking at prices that are sometimes half of what they were just 12 months ago. They are, as the saying goes, loading up the wagon, coveri...

Oilseed Highlights

Today's USDA export sales report showed a pronounced slowdown in net new export sales of soybeans and soybean products. With Brazil now harvesting its new...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Argentina's government is desperately trying to encourage farmers to sell their crops as quickly as possible, but the lack of trust that farmers have for t...

Trade Agenda Trouble; Farm Bill Reversal

U.S. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nevada) gave definitive proof today that the trade policy agenda is in trouble. Trade Agenda Trouble U.S. Senate...

Market Commentary

Large-scale fund liquidation during the day session set the stage for old crop soybean contracts to sink 13-16 cents by the close. Adding to the bearish at...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Ukraine's Parliament approved the state budget which includes VAT refunds to Ukrainian grain exporters. This will increase the profits of Ukrainian grain p...

The Strange World of World Wheat

While wheat production has declined in the U.S. over the last two-three decades, it has expanded elsewhere in the world. That U.S. wheat should still be th...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

Iran and Ukraine have announced that they will be working much closer together on the development of joint efforts in the agriculture sector.   News...

Farm Bill Commodity Title

As expected, the final conference report of the new farm bill was filed last night. It contains several new commodity programs of interest.As expected, the...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

Oilseed Highlights

Last Friday's USDA export sales report only served to re-affirm the torrid pace of U.S. soybean and soymeal exports in the current marketing year. It is be...

Good, Bad and Ugly

Ethanol makers are claiming that they could export a lot more of the fuel if EPA would simply mandate the production. However, this means that ethanol woul...

Market Commentary

The shakeout of developing countries' currencies and world stock markets appears to have subsided at least for now. The U.S. dollar is higher, although it...

Market Commentary

Corn and wheat traded steady to higher most of the session, while soybeans had another day of back and forth trading. General Comments Markets were quiet a...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

Sharply Lower Initial CRC Prices in 2014

The Crop Revenue Coverage (CRC) program has provided U.S. farmers the same thing as an enormously good put option on up to 85 percent of their proven...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

The EU allocated 819,000 MT of wheat export licenses last week, bringing the total to 16.7 MMT versus 10.8 MMT allocated at the same time last year. Millin...

China In-Country Analysis

Chinese society's public debate on GM food has greatly intensified and evolved from a health issue to one of national security. China's Beef Price Soars be...

Farm Bill Conference Report Update

The farm bill conference managers are pressing ahead with the final conference report today as they try to get conferees to sign off on it, even though som...

The Meat Case

Those who default to the viewpoint that "big is bad" rarely get a good rebuttal. Now the U.S. Poultry and Egg Association has responded with a little histo...

Market Commentary

USDA's sales totals in today's weekly export sales report did nothing to attract buying in the soy complex, although the market did climb back and trade ju...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

Farm Bill and Farm Policy

The UN's International Resource Panel is concerned that water, soil and biodiversity will suffer trying to meet rising global food demand and recommends co...

A Railcar–My Kingdom for a Railcar

Canada has an enormous transportation problem that is likely unprecedented, and it might rival Brazil in terms of shipping delays before all is said and do...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

In the first seven months of 2013/14 (April–October 2013), foreign direct investment (FDI) in the food processing sector was $2.15 billion, and there are e...

Oilseed Highlights

India, Vietnam, and Indonesia are the next three largest growth areas for soymeal usage after China. All three countries have now begun to see consistent s...

Ethanol on Offensive; Farm Bill Next Week?

The ethanol industry is arguing about the impact on corn prices and the farm economy from a reduced RFS. Ethanol on Offensive Before Comment Period Ends In...

Beef Shortage

There are fewer cattle in most exporting countries and continued strong demand in importing countries, especially Asia. Beef Shortage Lower feed prices are...

Market Commentary

Wheat was today's market leader with gains of 7-9 cents for SRW, HRW and HRS futures. Lowering world wheat prices are attracting demand. General Comments T...

Trouble All Around

Seeing a physical blend wall that creates a gap between the amounts of corn-based ethanol the industry can produce and can be absorbed in the gasoline mark...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

Corn Market Overview

The influence of enlarged corn production in the U.S., Brazil, Ukraine and other producing countries has created a new bearish psychology for the corn mark...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russia exported 681,827 MT of corn in December 2013. That is a record monthly volume for Russia at 15.7 percent more than November 2013 and triple the amou...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Crops in Brazil and Paraguay are developing under very good conditions. The Brazilian soybean crop is estimated to be about 90 MMT or more, and the Paragua...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

Potpourri of Misdeeds

India may have brought the world the numeric system, but it gives few favors these days when it comes to trade. Museum of Farming Britain is the perfect le...

Market Commentary

Even though Brazilian soybeans may be $0.80 or more cheaper than U.S. soybeans, the Chinese are going to be reluctant to switch unless they feel confident...

Oilseed Highlights

The Chinese government announced that it will discontinue stockpiling soybean and cotton this year as a way to support farmer income. Instead, it plans to...

Market Commentary

Hot, dry conditions over southern and western Argentina had been one of the key fundamental support pillars for the soy market, and the weekend rains kicke...

Inconsequential; Intelligence; Horse versus Donkey

The World Economic Forum (WEF) is underway in Davos, Switzerland, and several major corporate leaders reportedly aren't bothering to participate. Inconsequ...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

USAID is providing funds in Ghana for the installation of easy-to-operate corn shelling equipment that can be used by all farmers there. This new equipment...

Deficit Reduction: Slow And Steady

Overall, the U.S. government is starting the new year on a trend toward deficit reduction. This is largely as the result of two trends.Looking back on CY 2...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

By Any Other Name

The concern has always been that the mere fact that food products are required to be labeled as containing GM ingredients would be taken by the public as e...

Farm Bill: Dairy Breakthrough?

Groups continue to work toward a solution as the pressure of a two-year delay in the farm bill is mounting on dairy interests as the last holdout. As we r...

GMOs; Diet; Development

The irony is that when non-GMO becomes commoditized, organic product companies like Amy's and Earth's Best that are pushing for GMO labeling will eventuall...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

As India's pulse production has increased, it now wants to lift the ban on exports in 2014. This will help raise the domestic prices to farmers who would o...

Market Commentary

Soybeans and soymeal posted a mini-rally at the close that took March futures to the plus side and brought November futures to a 4-cent gain on the day. Ge...

U.S. Soybean Supplies Should Build in 2014/15

Some producers will choose to spend less on crop inputs when profits are projected to be slim or none. That is the case as we head in to the 2014 planting...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

Dietary Guidelines, Reality, and the Vegan Lobby

The U.S. Departments of Agriculture and Health and Human Services' nutrition guidelines are due for renewal in 2015. Meat and livestock groups will push to...

Position Limits and Excessive Speculation

The role played by excessive speculation is a curious one. It seems that it only occurs when prices are rising, never when they are falling.As Gary Blument...

Farm Bill and Biotech Trouble

The dairy provision in the new farm bill appears to be getting worked out, but now cotton is rearing its ugly head. New Farm Bill Trouble The dairy provisi...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices.   Some other text...

Oilseed Highlights

U.S. new soybean export sales have to drop back substantially at some point soon, or there have to be significant cancellations of sales. Otherwise, the U...

Market Commentary

Overnight trading volume for grain and the soy complex continued the recent slowing trend, but daytime volume picked up after USDA's weekly export sales re...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

TPA; Commodity Trading; Soak the Rich

The trade liberalization agenda had the most momentum in years as 2013 was coming to a close, but now 2014 looks to be full of hurdles. Trade Agenda at Ris...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Argentina's announced export quota of 1.5 MMT on wheat has left wheat market participants very disappointed with this policy development. They had been exp...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russia has exported 16.384 MMT of grains since the beginning of MY 2013/14. That is a 25.3 percent increase compared to the 13.077 MMT exported during the...

Market Commentary

With the possible exception of old crop soybeans and soymeal, there is presently the absence of the kind of fundamental tensions that encourage trading and...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

Kenya has set a target to double corn production in the next five years. The government also said that it will be promoting a change in the local diet to r...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

Some Takeaways from USDA’s January Reports

Although most analysts pay little attention to grain sorghums, there were major changes to 2013 production that necessitated signifcant changes in the 2013...

Oilseed Highlights

Global soybean demand is strong, but not strong enough to handle a 30 MMT increase in combined North and South American soybean production in the same cale...

Market Commentary

Better than expected retail sales results for December sent stock markets higher today following earlier January losses. China reportedly turned down more...

Congress Comes to Budget Terms

The plan released yesterday afternoon provides final FY 2014 discretionary funding levels for all 12 annual appropriations bills at a total of $1.012 trill...

Energy, Horses, Bugs, Econ

The saga over horse slaughter in the U.S. is a repeating nightmare for both its proponents and opponents. This time around, horse slaughter opponents used...

Biofuels 2014: EPA Proposal Trumps Legislation

If not explicitly welcomed by Congress, EPA's proposal was met with quite a sigh of relief as it cleared a contentious issue from the must-do legislative l...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

Assuming the Ukrainian feed grains surplus is 18 MMT this year, 10 MMT remain for the period of January-September, which is a record high for this point in...

Hawaii versus China on Ag

With over an acre of land per inhabitant, Hawaii imports 92 percent of its food. By contrast, the Chinese have about one-fifth of an acre of arable land pe...

A Mixed Reaction

The market is having trouble accepting the fact that last Friday's USDA corn numbers might have signaled a change in the corn outlook.The market's reaction...

China In-Country Analysis

Realizing that limited arable land and scarce water resources could restrict agricultural production, China has vowed to boost the seed industry to ensure...

Market Commentary

Soybeans are supposed to be weakening as the demand leaves North America and crops in South America continue to look good. The problem is that the demand h...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Growing per capita incomes in India have led to changes in household food baskets and a tremendously increased demand for dairy products. The rapidly...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

Labels and Taxes

Creating change through the use of labeling and taxes is not so simple.The International Association for the Study of Obesity suggests that the solution to...

A Friendly Surprise in USDA Numbers

The corn and soybean estimates were not nearly as bearish as predicted by most analysts, while wheat held its own surprise.USDA unloaded the biggest series...

Market Commentary

Today's USDA corn numbers clearly caught the market by surprise with a decrease in production and a 1 December quarterly stocks number of more than 300 mil...

Farm Bill Stuck on Dairy Language

Each of the House and Senate bills provides its own proposed program for dairy producers' margin insurance. As we reported in a brief update yesterday, th...

Farm Bill Update

The House and Senate farm bill conference did not meet today as had been expected. The issues were allegedly regarding food aid and dairy programs. The Ho...

Oilseed Highlights

Net new export sales of U.S. soybeans last week totaled only 155,000 MT. However, this year's total is 41.248 MMT, 2.7 percent above USDA's December foreca...

Trends and Demands Impact Livestock Production

Smithfield and its hog production subsidiary, Murphy-Brown, are asking their contract sow-growers to convert their facilities from gestation stalls to grou...

The Global Influence

We have no doubt that the CME futures markets attract a greater diversity of commercial and speculative traders from around the world than any other agricu...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

Market Commentary

The pervasive feeling is that the sum of tomorrow's USDA reports will be bearish with increased corn and soybean production as well as big quarterly corn s...

Regs; TPA; Labeling

Food manufacturers are asking the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to develop a national rule on biotech food labeling. There are ample legal mechan...

Kettle Black; Cheap Food

Russia is charging the EU with improper antidumping procedures due to faulty dumping margin calculations, while the country itself was found to have impose...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Brazilian farmers have sold about 40 percent of their soybean production, well below the last campaign. There is still a large volume to trade, but there m...

Market Commentary

Today's announcement that China had bought more U.S. soybeans had less influence on price than prudent action. General Comments It is stating the obvious t...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Mykola Kulbida, Director of the Ukrainian Meteorological Center, reported on 30 December that the continuous period of warm weather affecting Ukraine, espe...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

Oilseed Highlights

USDA announced today that U.S. exporters have sold an additional 350,000 MT of soybeans to China for shipment in 2013/14. This should send a signal to the...

NTMs; Disobedience; Peripheral

Most activists solely state the need to remove antibiotics from livestock production in order to solve antibiotic resistance. Addressing the human-based ca...

Congressional Agenda

There are both mandatory and  several politically-motivated high priority items. Obviously, all of these issues have implications for the 2014 mid-ter...

Market Commentary

Grain and soy markets are treating Friday's 2014 version of USDA January reports as being very important to future price direction. General Comments USDA's...

The Soybean Anomaly

You might say that today's sales report provides an exclamation point to the curious anomaly that has developed for the U.S. and world soybean outlook and...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

Ten new drought-tolerant varieties of corn are being released in Africa: four types in Uganda, three types in Kenya and another three slated soon in Tanzan...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

Farm Bill Conference Meetings Start

The devil is in the details, which are sparse at this moment. Indeed, there is not even confirmation right now that all the provisions in both the House an...

Bearish USDA Report Expectations

The primary reason for these expectations is that nearly everyone expects that U.S. corn and soybean production estimates will be increased.USDA will relea...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

China In-Country Analysis

China's domestic protein market surged recently as a result of the tightening DDGS import policy. Some large domestic importers are now worried about the f...

Market Commentary

The weekly export inspections numbers were released and showed that 56.5 million bushels of soybeans were exported during last week's holiday-shortened wee...

Ethanol Backstory; Cold Benefits

Humans are fretting the deep cold temperatures savaging the U.S. this winter. However, it may be good for crops. White House Drives Ethanol Policy EPA has...

U.S. Winter Wheat Acreage Estimates

We are currently projecting a reduction in U.S. winter wheat acres. However, we see big differences between hard red winter (HRW) and soft red winter (SRW)...

Market Commentary

This morning's weekly export sales report again showed bullish soybean sales with corn and wheat sales below expectations. General Comments Markets were mi...

Contradictions Abound

Farmers were sent checks from the government when corn was $7/bushel but now will not receive a direct payment when corn is down to $4/bushel. Contradictio...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

Golden Age for Commodities Coming to End in 2014

We are coming out of long bull run for commodities despite a recession in 2008-09, or maybe, in part, because of that recession.We are coming out of long b...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

A widely-referenced paper on the trials and effects of biotech food crops has been discredited by the journal that published it. There is now no serious sc...

Sugar Tax; TPA

The food police, as Jayson Lusk at Oklahoma State likes to call them, are hoping that Mexico's newly enacted tax on sugary soft drinks will successfully se...

Predictions for 2014

What we are unable to forecast are the inevitable surprises that always appear.As we begin each New Year, it has become our habit to peer into our proverbi...

Market Commentary

The market's price action since Christmas has turned technical charts for all three markets seriously negative. General Comments Please note that the weekl...

Feed Outlook

Livestock feed price ratios forecast for December 2013 already show dramatic changes over the past two years in terms of livestock profitability.Feed Outlo...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

Oilseed Highlights

Although China has thus far rejected a relatively small amount of U.S. DDGS because it contains an unapproved Syngenta biotech event, the rejections are ha...

Market Commentary

Perhaps more than anything else, 2013's final session demonstrated how interconnected various commodities can become. General Comments The last trading ses...

Farm Price Index and Financial Outlook

The two factors driving farm financial health are farm income and borrowing costs. With farm real estate debt having increased substantially since 2008, th...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

Middle Eastern markets, especially Iran, were buyers of Indian soymeal in 2012/13, but it is expected that those exports to the region will drop in 2013/14...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

Slip Sliding Into 2014

The fundamental story line for 2013 is the rather dramatic transition from tight supplies and the need to limit demand at the beginning of the year to the...

Agenda for 2014

Until the agriculture sector achieves greater public understanding of its objectives, challenges and accomplishments, antagonists will fill the vacuum with...

Oilseed Highlights

Hope obviously abounds in the Indonesian government. Yesterday the Indonesian Ministry of Agriculture forecasted that country's soybean production in 2014...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

Hogwash; Backfire; Chasers

Survey work commissioned by the U.S. Farmers & Ranchers Alliance found that the vast majority of consumers want more information and transparency appli...

Thoughts on Yields

The question for today is: to what extent has the GM revolution in corn and soybeans resulted in yield increases?John Baize had an interesting piece last w...

Taxing the Rich

What is most surprising, perhaps, is that the top income earners have fared worse as an overall group than any other since the 2008-09 recession. While Co...

Market Commentary

There was rain in Cordoba, Argentina over the weekend that gave us a weak tone in the soy complex. There wasn't any news in the corn market, so the weaknes...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Many analysts have discussed India's divided demographic and how it will pave the way for the country's economic growth. While there is a great deal of pot...

Another Week of Big Export Sales

Commodity Analytics shows the most recent data for grain export sales and shipments along with historic patterns. Current deviations from historic norms po...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

Market Commentary

The weekly U.S. export sales report was released this morning, and corn sales were more than double the anticipated number with soybean and wheat sales als...

China Rejects Imports of GM DDGS

While the DDGS component of the Chinese feed market is still relatively small, it is an important one for U.S. DDGS as it accounts for 58 percent of all ex...

2014 Uncertainties

Uncertainty remains the key certainty going into 2014.Two seemingly conflicting forecasts for 2014 involve concurrent value accretion for the U.S. dollar a...

Market Commentary

Today's markets were greeted with an improved weather outlook for both southern Brazil and Argentina. This has the effect of emphasizing that prospects for...

Bad Timing; China Perspective

Because the political far left and far right are now conspiring against trade liberalization, it is speculated that TPA will not be considered in Congress...

China Beef Trade Ten Years After BSE

China is currently short of domestic production in the face of growing demand and prices have more than tripled since the 2003 BSE ban. China Beef Trade Te...

A Look Ahead at the Next Decade for Soybeans

If global soybean demand continues to rise over the next decade at the same pace as it has since 2000/01, the world will need an additional 70-80 MMT of so...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Ukraine exported 17.6 MMT of grains as of 23 December and from the beginning of MY 2013/14. This is an increase of 27.7 percent compared to the same period...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

Grading Our 2013 Predictions

What might make our predictions somewhat unique is that at the end of each year we go back and grade ourselves on how well or how poorly we did. Seldom hav...

Market Commentary

USDA provided some interest for the soybean market when it announced that a total of 185,000 MT of soybeans were sold to unknown with 120,000 MT of that fo...

Peering Into the Weather Crystal Ball

We must remember that the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) climate outlooks are based on an analysis of what appear to be the most likely long-term trends a...

Oilseed Highlights

It now appears Indian soy industry officials agree that India's 2013 soybean crop will not be anywhere near as large as the 12–13 MMT that some in India we...

Energy; Biotech; Currency

A survey of American attitudes toward biotech food by the global research company NPD Group sends a warning and a message of opportunity. Lame Duck Honesty...

Unemployment Versus the Farm Bill

The farm bill may face some competition for floor time from a new move to extend emergency unemployment compensation (EUC) when Congress reconvenes in Janu...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

China In-Country Analysis

In a recent economic planning meeting, the Chinese government proposed focusing the nation's economic growth in 2014 on safe, balanced and green developmen...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

In its December review, Strategie Grains revised its wheat export estimate for the current campaign upward to 24 MMT versus 19.6 MMT exported last year. Mi...

Science, Trades, Quotes

In asking organic shoppers for the scientific basis of their shopping decisions, it turns out their actions are largely based on intuition rather than the...

Canada Has A Lot

The obvious result of a magnificent production season will be that ending supplies of virtually every crop in Canada will rise, and the logistical problem...

Market Commentary

USDA announced the sale of 120,000 MT of old crop soybeans to unknown for the current marketing year. This was a small surprise since the market has been w...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

Sound Science: What Is It?

The lack of definition makes for some potentially problematic and unintended consequences were the term to be codified.Supreme Court Justice Potter Stewart...

More Things to Keep You Up at Night

A few representatives from Chinese companies have been roaming around the northern Plains and visiting country grain elevator (silo) companies. According t...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

Baucus to Beijing Shuffle: Impact on U.S. Politics

What is interesting is the potential domino effect this nomination would have politically if it leads (as it probably will) to Baucus leaving the Senate be...

Duping Consumers

Former USDA officials Dan Glickman and Kathleen Merrigan assert in a Los Angeles Times article that allowing organic foods to be labeled as GMO-free would...

Market Commentary

Wheat still struggles to find any consistent buying as the funds keep adding to their record short positions. General Comments Markets were lower in the ov...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

GOI has agreed to provide a bailout package of $1.06 billion to the sugar industry that will be released as interest-free loans to the mills. The sugar mil...

Trade Agenda Risk; Oops; Indicators

President Obama has two near-term priorities. However, a proposed nomination and a tin-eared USTR now threaten those two goals. Trade Agenda Hits Skids Pre...

Inflationary Soybeans

There has been something of a symbiotic relationship between commodities and inflation for a long time. The best current example of the use of soybeans as...

Oilseed Highlights

Reports out of India indicate that the country's soymeal exporters are having difficulty lining up new sales because of high prices. Deliveries of soybeans...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

Market Commentary

The larger-than-expected weekly export sales for corn and wheat were still not large enough to light a fire under either market. General Comments Overnight...

Pork Pushes TPP – With or Without Japan

The National Pork Producers Council and American Farm Bureau Federation, together with a number of other groups, said that they are likely to oppose the en...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

Market Commentary

The Fed's announced tapering and its low interest rate commitment did nothing for grain and soy markets that for now are off in their own worlds. General C...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

ANEC authorities are now seeking a new way to determine the priority of vessels in the Paranagua port. They are trying to maintain liquidity in the Paranag...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Opening the meeting of the Russian-Ukrainian Interstate Commission on 17 December, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced the intention of Russia, Ukra...

Bridges; Cheered; Cloned

As one lobbyist euphemized, getting TPA through Congress is going to require a few bridges to be built in various districts and states. Building Bridges Th...

The Rest of the Story on Oil Imports

The bottom line is that the refinery capacity in the Gulf is now less dependent on imported oil than ever before.As we reported yesterday, the talking poin...

Forum Shopping

There are plenty of policy wonks conveniently picking what serves their biased positions.Forum shopping is more typically associated with litigating existi...

Oilseed Highlights

Brazil's soybean farmers have had to deal with two major problems this year: caterpillars that have inflicted substantial crop damage and a rainy December...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

Black Sea wheat supplies are diminishing and Middle East & North Africa (MENA) buyers are going to have to look to other sources until the next harvest...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

Market Drivers

Many of the relatively new factors that can affect market cycles are the result of economic and market globalization and integration.Every freely traded ma...

Market Commentary

With recent news about the U.S. economy generally positive, it is widely expected that the Fed will soon cut back on its stimulus efforts through the month...

A Different Marketing View

The standard solution of most marketing analysts to the prospect of lower prices is to tell their producer clients to sell this year's crop plus the antici...

Market Commentary

Weekly export inspections for wheat were in the expected range at 17.6 million bushels. The pace is now 41 percent ahead of last year. General Comments Cor...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

The EU allocated 780,000 MT of wheat export licenses last week, bringing the total to 12.5 MMT versus 8.5 MMT allocated at the same time last year. Milling...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

China In-Country Analysis

China' leaders reportedly expressed strong interest in feed production investment in Bulgaria at a recent summit with their counterparts from Central and E...

Biofuels Oversight: What’s the Greenest Fuel and Feedstock?

With or without e-15, one of the brewing clashes is the one coming between corn and advanced ethanol. There are only so many gallons of transportation fuel...

House Passes Budget and Farm Bill

Of interest to agriculture, offsets for the cost of providing conservation assistance to private farm and ranch lands are included in the budget package.Th...

Oilseed Highlights

One must question why the government allows U.S. biodiesel blenders to capture the tax credit for exported biodiesel when the objective of the blender cred...

Market Commentary

Corn has become a follower of the weakness in the soy complex. The situation with the prohibited GM corn variety in China is still unresolved, and there ar...

No Middle Ground

The markets (and most market analysts) are either all in or all out, and there has been no better evidence of this phenomenon than what has happened this y...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

U.S., EU Flip Positions

While Europe is now abandoning its dairy production quotas, congressional farm bill conferees are flirting with adopting the old EU policy of supply-limiti...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

The demand for vegetable oils in India has increased over the years. Current additional factors affecting the growth in imports are the delay in the s...

FDA Issues Feed Directive on Veterinary Antibiotics

The FDA has come out with a plan for limiting veterinary pharmaceuticals that have human uses. In the end, the rule is somewhat of a relief to the meat ind...

Market Commentary

Demand for U.S. corn appears threatened by the Chinese rejections of corn shipments containing the not yet approved MIR162 GM event. Traders fear the volum...

Banks and Proprietary Trading

The Volcker Rule's prohibition on proprietary trading by banks will directly affect today's derivative markets. A number of major banks have already closed...

Spending and Not Spending

The military's interest in biofuel is purportedly fueled by paranoia about dependence on foreign sources of oil, but those sources are mainly Canada and Me...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange presently estimates that the total corn area is about 3.3 million hectares, a decrease of 10 percent year-on-year. This acr...

Quirky Stuff

The same policymaker who pleaded with Congress to pass the farm bill has dismissed the one piece of leverage available for compelling congressional action...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russia's November 2013 barley exports totaled 182,547 MT, 53 percent less than October 2013 and 46 percent less than November 2012. 71 percent of the...

Market Commentary

One would expect trade to calm down the day following a major USDA report. That was certainly the case to an extreme with today's market. General Comments...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

The December WASDE

It might be argued that today's WASDE was slightly bullish based on the fact that overall demand for grains and soybeans in both the U.S. and the world inc...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

According to a recent report on GMOs in South Africa, 86 percent of corn planted is GM as well as 90 percent of soybeans. These crops are said to have...

Market Commentary

Wheat traders seemed put off by the fact that USDA actually raised its estimate of U.S. ending stocks, although 10 million bushels one way or another does...

Tilt Eastward

The official policy is that Beijing wants to be 95 percent self-sufficient in food, but the reality is that its effort to equalize rural and urban incomes...

Oilseed Highlights

It now appears a situation may be developing that will lead to much lower soybean prices in the future as global soybean production in 2014 might be 24 MMT...

GMOs and DDGS

China has rejected somewhere between 10-20 cargos of U.S. corn found to have an unapproved GMO event. The next logical question is: what will happen if Chi...

Retail Economy: Prosperity versus Inflation

Much of the increase in food costs has been raw commodity price inflation that has generally started to reverse this year.Now is the time of the year when...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

Market Commentary

Weekly export inspections were all higher than expected. The bears continue to say the markets are finished, but demand doesn't seem to want to go away. Ge...

Look Again

Canada is having to sue the U.S. in the WTO as American politicians impose a country of origin labeling scheme intended to suppress imports of Canadian liv...

China In-Country Analysis

China's tight wheat supply has resulted in a high domestic price that could lead millers and trading companies to start importing supplies as early as next...

December WASDE Should Be Slightly Bullish

By most accounts, the U.S. numbers should be slightly bullish and supportive to prices. The key ingredient will be how much, if any, USDA chooses to i...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

It now seems that the WTO deal in Bali will have to wait as the Indian negotiators have not acceded to the rules that govern food subsidies. Eight of the 1...

Market Commentary

Old crop soybean futures and basis have had a hard time weakening even with all the talk of a very bearish long-term soybean supply situation caused by pre...

Farm Bill Progress Being Made

There is still some uncertainty as to whether an extension will be needed to cover the period between now and January.Reportedly, the big four – the chairm...

Canada Blows Away Crop Production Records

The question now becomes, what will they do with this crop?Stats Canada's crop production update released on Wednesday of this week simply blew the wheat m...

Bali Stockpiles, Tech, Popcockery

U.S. agriculture is better than a country cousin when comparing some of its statistics to health care. Ag Loses to TF The WTO deal possibly1 arrived at in...

Ag Review: Agrifood Technilogical Optimism

Rethinking AGOA Reauthorization of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) needs to take into account the improved economic condition of some countri...

Oilseed Highlights

Reports out of China indicate the Chinese government will impose a consumption tax equivalent to $154/MT on biodiesel in January in an effort to reduce imp...

Misfit Toys and Vatican Economics

The WTO's leadership is reportedly still trying to salvage a deal in Bali and has floated alternative language on a peace clause for India's proposed food...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

Mexico Implements Plan to Rebuild Cattle Herd

The goal of the program is to boost sales of Mexican cattle, but imports of live cattle and genetics are not prohibited, although the genetics program may...

Food for Thought

The biggest and most emotional food issue we face comes from the advent of biogenetic modification of food crops. The fear is that GMO crops MIGHT pose som...

Market Commentary

Deutsche Bank, Germany's largest bank and a major player in commodity markets, announced that it plans to exit almost all of its commodity trading activiti...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

As of 29 November and from the beginning of MY 2013/14, Ukraine exported 13.96 MMT of grains, an increase of 19.4 percent compared with the same period las...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

A month ago, official sources forecasted Argentine wheat production at 8.8 MMT.  Just several weeks ago, an official estimated that wheat exports woul...

Market Commentary

It is fair to say that Canadian producers have never before experienced the yield and production results they are seeing in 2013. Crop scouts expected that...

Optimism, Compliance, Cars

If U.S. agriculture fails to achieve great inroads into the Japanese market via the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), it can thank American automakers. Capi...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

Oilseed Highlights

Argentina's government acted yesterday to assist the domestic biodiesel industry in offsetting losses in exports to Europe after the EU imposed punitive an...

Snopes, EMIR, Bali

What is needed is a single website for food that operates like Urban Legends or Snopes and serves as the repository of what is peer-reviewed and replicated...

U.S. Ag Trade – Steady As A Rock

Grain and feed values will obviously be down in 2014, while oilseed export values are projected upward based on higher prices and strong early year sales o...

Market Commentary

Today's hedge selling in soybean futures appeared to result from a reported pick up in U.S. country movement and also from Brazil as an indication of some...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

Finally, the Volcker Rule

Whether or not the Volcker Rule is needed is a debate that has passed as it will soon be in place. However, there will remain plenty of questions as to how...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

Agricultural experts in Africa are saying that the first priority regarding grains should be the storage and transportation systems where as much as 30 per...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

The EU allocated 577,000 MT of wheat export licenses last week, bringing the total to 11.2 MMT versus 7.3 MMT a year ago at the same time. Milling Wheat Th...

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