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USDA’s 1 September Stocks Report

If there is a surprise in the stocks reported today, it is the extremely tight ending 2013/14 soybean stocks of 92 million bushels, the lowest ending soybe...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Oilseed Highlights

The Chinese government's refusal to approve the two new biotech soybean events was known to U.S. soybean growers and officials in the biotech industry at l...

Trade Policy Realities

EU Trade Commissioner-designate Cecilia Malmström told an EU Parliament panel yesterday that the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP)...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

End of the Fiscal Year Snapshot

The short-term snapshot paints a rosy scenario for the federal budget with a lowered deficit, growing economy and strong revenues. However, if the current...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

Tunisia's government reported that the 2014 grain crop is up by about 80 percent at 2.34 MMT. It was also noted that there will be a very significant drop...

Market Commentary

Besides the ongoing anticipation of huge crop production and building stocks, markets ran into headwinds from outside factors as well today. General Commen...

Money Wasted; Pandering; Confusion; Smearing

The Observer reports Chinese President Xi Jinping declaring that his country must boldly pursue agricultural biotechnology and not allow foreign companies...

Putting the Squeeze on Switchgrass?

Most cellulosic ethanol today is made from crop residue as corn stover and wheat stalks are easily coprocessed at current corn ethanol plant locations. Swi...

Market Commentary

Today's higher price action in the nearby November soybean contracts is likely continue in the short term, irrespective of the contents of tomorrow's USDA...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

Russian and Ukrainian wheat has lost competitiveness to the French, German, Polish and other Baltic origins. Russia has exported about 10 MMT of wheat sinc...

China In-Country Analysis

At a recent national seed conference in China, it was indicated that a new seed law is under development that will focus on amendment of the PRV, seed labe...

USDA Quarterly Stocks Report

These quarterly stocks numbers have been critical market factors over the past several years when corn, soybean and wheat supplies were very tight. That wi...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

The government of India (GOI) released the food grain production data last week, and estimates indicate the 2014/15 kharif production at 120.27 MMT, a 6.94...

RFS; Biotech Wheat; Food Disease

While foodies pursue the newest modern food to pillory and the latest ancient orphan crop to ordain with faddism, the more serious participants in food res...

Market Commentary

Markets started the night session little changed, but the soy complex eventually worked lower and again set new contract lows in the process. Good weather...

Looking for “Minor” New Crop Bids

The minor crops will have the advantage in the 2015 growing season as farmers are again looking for alternatives to corn, soybeans and wheat. However, the...

Farm Bill Sign Up to Begin Next Week

Farmers will have until midwinter to complete the update of base acres and make their one-time irrevocable decision on whether to enroll in the Price Loss...

Market Commentary

Any semblance of yesterday's mini-rally disappeared during the day session that once again saw the nearby contracts for corn, soybeans and Chicago wheat si...

Cycles

Since commodity prices have moved up and down in a cyclical fashion as long as prices have been recorded, there has developed a cottage industry of economi...

Oilseed Highlights

The general outlook for China's animal protein and feed sectors over the next year is positive. The industry is confident the lower feed prices will result...

Canada and Korea Sign FTA

Trade talks have been on-again/off-again since 2008. In fact, Canadian beef regained access to Korea in 2012 after a ban due to bovine spongiform encephalo...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Oilseed Highlights

The general outlook for China's animal protein and feed sectors over the next year is positive. The industry is confident the lower feed prices will result...

Yen; Breakout; Labeling

Brazilian presidential candidate Marina Silva is an environmentalist in a highly protectionist country, and yet she appears ready to break the mold on her...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Ukraine's Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food reported that the country has exported 7.4 MMT of grain as of 19 September 2014 and from the beginning of MY...

Market Commentary

Surprisingly, wheat was the market's leader today. More specifically, it was Chicago wheat leading the way after posting new contract lows and the lowest p...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange recently toured the region south of Buenos Aires and estimates that 150,000 hectares have been entirely lost to flooding. T...

Blistering; Arbitrage; Named; Trends

In a blistering attack, 90 scientists reportedly sent a letter to President Obama urging him to make FDA decide one way or another on AquaBounty's nearly t...

Oilseed Highlights

The large rise in China's soymeal exports to nearby markets has been mostly due to the lack of availability this year of the less expensive Indian soymeal...

Irony or Cynicism; Reeducation; Poison

New Delhi is single-handedly blocking implementation of a Trade Facilitation Agreement (TFA) that is designed to reduce barriers to trade with the very cou...

Market Commentary

Corn futures traded fractionally higher before turning down again. Soybean futures prices traded both sides of unchanged and were actually higher during mu...

Searching for Demand

One role that the market must play is to discover how low prices must drop to uncover demand. Obviously, this becomes more difficult when supplies are risi...

Republican Senate Means Very Different Ag Committee

There will be five current committee members retiring at the end of 2014, three Democrats and two Republicans. With a change in party control, the Republic...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

Egypt's GASC had a very busy week with two tenders and surprising purchases of wheat from France and the U.S. It bought 180,000 MT of French wheat at an av...

Farm Program Budget Numbers Growing

It is difficult to predict what the final farm program payments will be as based on harvest prices, contract prices, acres harvested and the like, but the...

TPP Closeout; Pot and Alcohol Votes

Japanese Economy Minister and lead Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) negotiator Akira Amari will spend the next couple of days with his U.S. counterpart, Mic...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

Farmers in Romania and Bulgaria refuse to sell wheat at the current export parity, and the only trades reported in the domestic market are purchases from l...

A Few More Things to Keep You Up at Night

The market is assuming another record Brazilian soybean crop in 2015, based on more planted acres and another super yield. One potential impediment to this...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Market Commentary

Soybeans set new contract lows today by a wide margin, dropping to $9.34. Wheat stabilized on news that Egypt had purchased a cargo of U.S. wheat for the f...

China In-Country Analysis

The majority of China's soybean crushers are competitively keeping their plants' utilization rates up as available soybean stocks at the 20 major seaports...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Non-GM canola seed has been introduced in India by private seed companies. In 2013/14 40,000 acres of land was put under canola seed in Northern India, a f...

Do Low Prices Mean Big Crop Insurance Payments?

There is a misconception that the revenue protection insurance program guarantees a price. It does not. It does, however, guarantee minimum dollars per acr...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Market Commentary

USDA announced additional export sales of corn and soybeans today, but the market paid scant attention to those announcements. Instead, the focus continues...

Legislative Wrap Up for 2014

The stage is set for members of Congress to return to their states and districts for campaigning. Republicans who control the House will highlight the bill...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Oilseed Highlights

There is word that soymeal is in very short supply across the Midwest because crushers simply cannot acquire the soybeans they want to process. Several pro...

Scottish Fantasies; TPA or Not

A review of statements by the "Yes" campaign and others leaves a confusing picture of Scottish agricultural policy as we await the results of today's seces...

Cattle and Beef Halfway Through 2014

Beef production for the first half of the year was just over 12 billion pounds and is projected at 24.5 billion pounds for the year, which would be the sma...

Market Commentary

Weather forecasts for the Corn Belt and northern plains look warm and dry and we are on the eve of record U.S. corn and soybean harvests. The only question...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

The only new crop commodity in Argentina that is operating with a semblance of normalcy (but with scarce volume) is soybeans. Argentine farmers have alread...

Biotech Religion; WTO’s Role; CFTC Punishment

Following the NAS's two-day agricultural biotechnology conference, one biotech industry rep lamented that it will take two years for a report to be drafted...

Market Commentary

Market news remains tough to find. The market is marking time until the corn and soybean harvests reach the Corn Belt. So far, yields across the Delta and...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Ukraine's State Statistic Service reports that total stocks of grain in the Ukrainian enterprises that store and process grain amounted to 23.4 MMT on 1 Se...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Scottish Signals; Wave or Gridlock

Recent events are proving wrong the notion that history leads us to a fully integrated and borderless world. The march of history is uneven, and thus globa...

FSA September Acreage Numbers Release Brings More Confusion

Regardless of how you view and asses these different acreage estimates, they will impact the final crop production estimates and they strongly suggest smal...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

Of great concern to wheat buyers in the region is the quality of France's wheat supply this season. It has been estimated that in excess of 50 percent of t...

Market Commentary

Today's market rally was caused by the release of the USDA/FSA acreage numbers that (again) suggest the USDA/NASS acreage estimates are too big. The big qu...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Oilseed Highlights

Traders say China's soybean crushers currently are losing as much as $65 on every ton they process. They claim the poor margins are a result of China's slo...

U.S. Government Funding Solution

Federal funding runs out exactly two weeks from today. Both sides of the Congressional aisle reportedly want a “clean” CR, meaning no extraneous provisions...

Commodity Risk in QE Easing

The Fed's easy money policy has not sparked inflation to date, but more effectively it served as a cushion for the lack of risk taking in an uncertain econ...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Market Commentary

Weather across the Corn Belt and northern plains looks nearly perfect for the next two weeks and maybe beyond. Perfect is warm temperatures and below-norma...

Ironies; Dribble; Sino-Phobia

The U.S. National Academy of Sciences' Committee on Genetically Engineered Crops held its first of many planned public input sessions to build background f...

Little Frost Damage, Better Weather Ahead

The markets were firm last Friday just in case it got colder across a wider area than expected, but that didn't happen. It is possible that as the week rol...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

Farmers in Bulgaria and Romania will start planting winter wheat in the coming weeks, and planting conditions are optimal. The soil moisture is abundant af...

China In-Country Analysis

Recently released economic indicators imply that the economic recovery in China is struggling, which could reduce protein consumption and drive down the de...

European Double Toil and Trouble

EU President-elect Jean-Claude Juncker has asked Commissioner-designate for Health and Food Safety Vytenis Andriukaitis to conduct a six-month review of th...

Agricultural Lenders Are Getting Spooked

The message is that agricultural lenders are more than a little worried about the rapid and steep decline in prices as well as the resulting destruction to...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

India is the world's second-largest rice producer and has huge surplus stocks in warehouses. After a 30-year gap, however, GOI will be importing rice this...

Tidbits on Biofuels

The American Petroleum Institute (API) is worried that the administration is considering E85 as a way to increase the proposed 2014 Renewable Fuel Standard...

Market Commentary

Overnight markets were mixed to just slightly higher. Weather beyond this weekend across the country looks warmer and dry, and that is exactly what the cro...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Market Commentary

Today USDA published the first WASDE for the 2014/15 crop year for both corn and soybeans, and the report was more bearish than the average of market expec...

Pork and TPP

The U.S. National Pork Producer Council (NPPC) has issued a statement to the entire group of negotiators involved with the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP)...

Business Opportunity in the Global Wheat Market

The writing is on the wall that wheat export opportunities to Asian countries are likely to rise, especially for any global producer of a consistent produc...

Oilseed Highlights

Stoller Enterprises, a Houston-based agronomic firm, announced yesterday that it was able to harvest 214.7 bushels of soybeans per acre (14.44 MT/hectare)...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Out-Liars in the Policy Debate

The Pesticide Action Network (PAN) of North America has been called out for trying to undermine the credibility of a National Research Council conference a...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Ukraine's 2014 grain production is expected to total 58.5 MMT, 7 percent less than in 2013. This includes 21 MMT of wheat, 7.9 MMT of barley and 27.8 MMT o...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Argentine farmer are heading into the corn planting season, and expectations are that more acreage will be planted early as this past year's strategy of do...

EU Governance; Cellulosic Amateurishness

The cellulosic ethanol industry would not exist if not for the mandate by the U.S. government that its otherwise uneconomic product be used by American con...

Market Commentary

After three down days in a row, the corn market finally managed a positive close even if only by a penny or so as the market awaits tomorrow's report. The...

Budget Savings from Crop Insurance Premium Subsidies

According to the GAO, reducing premium subsidies for revenue policies could potentially result in hundreds of millions of dollars in annual budgetary savin...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

To Label or Not To Label?

Proponents of GM food labeling avoid attacking GMOs themselves. In an effort to evade having to contend with the overwhelming weight of the science that de...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

Along with Egypt's new wheat relationship with Russia, there is news that it will have a direct freight service to Black Sea Russia in order to facilitate...

Market Commentary

Corn, wheat and soybean futures prices all posted new contract lows during the day session today in slow trade. Momentum following funds continued to sell...

Checkoff Trouble; Antimonopoly Guise

India has long manipulated its food and agriculture market in an effort to protect inefficient producers while concurrently feeding its hungry. However, no...

Oilseed Highlights

A California company announced this week that it has successfully developed a hybrid jatropha variety which has high yield, rapid time maturity and a non-t...

China In-Country Analysis

China's Ministry of Agriculture (MOA) recently announced that biotech applications can be submitted online effective 1 September as part of its efforts to...

Frost Is in the Air

Temperatures across nearly all of western Canada and portions of the Northern Plains will drop to 15-25 degrees below normal by the middle of this week. Th...

Agency Fixes

Timothy Massad is showing that he is a completely different chair of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) than his predecessor as he has announc...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

Ukrainian feed wheat is by far the cheapest origin at $192/MT FOB as the Romanian/Bulgarian is at least $10/MT higher. French feed wheat is nominally aroun...

Market Commentary

Wheat struggled with corn and soybeans during the first half of today's session, but the selling seemed to dry up before noon.There was actually light buyi...

Politics to Dominate Next Three Weeks’ Legislative Agenda

With the congressional midterm elections in the offing, political calculations are obviously at the root of everything. While this should prove to be a rau...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

As more of India's population consumes meat, particularly chicken, the country's poultry industry would like to reduce production as a means to increase pr...

Letters on India

India's agricultural exports are growing fast, and it is not the result of having negotiated reciprocal trade liberalization agreements. Its average applie...

Market Commentary

With the exception of soyoil, the soy complex gave us a small bounce overnight and this morning. The November contract set new contract lows yesterday at $...

The U.S. Position in the World of Shale Formation Reserves

The benefit of the shale and tight oil formations is that with the new technology available to recover gas and oil from these sources, large volumes can qu...

Canadian Stocks and Other Issues

Last year's Canadian crops blew away previous production records by an incredibly wide margin. The 2014 crop production estimates are back to more normal l...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Europe; Africa, Climate and Sugar

The U.S. dollar will be driven higher by inverse policies whereby Europe and Japan are increasing liquidity while the Federal Reserve is ending quantitativ...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

The Politics of Corn

We used to refer to wheat as the "political grain." However, it seems to have now been replaced by corn, which by any measurement is the largest and most i...

Oilseed Highlights

The Malaysian government today exempted all exports of crude palm oil from its 4.5 percent export tax for the months of September and October. Palm oil exp...

PEDv Vaccine Approved

Based on field trials, USDA has granted a conditional license for a vaccine developed by Zoetis to prevent Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea virus (PEDv). Continue...

Market Commentary

The soy complex, corn, Chicago wheat and MGE wheat all closed lower. Once again November soybeans, December corn and Chicago December wheat all set fresh c...

Hopes and Doubts

Germany is considered the strength of Europe, but if its supermarkets reflect the will of the people, the future seems dull. The country's top supermarkets...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

While Argentine farmers retain a substantial volume of soybeans as a hedge against current economic conditions, lower FOB prices may actually force them to...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russia's agriculture ministry is planning to buy 4-4.5 MMT during the grain market interventions in the second half of September. These purchases are inten...

Market Commentary

Today was the day that grain and soy prices broke out of the relatively narrow price bands in which they had been stuck for the past month. The breakout to...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

Morocco's total 2014 grain production is expected to be down by about 30 percent versus a year ago with barley showing the largest decrease at 37 percent...

Asia-Pacific Trade Policy

India  put the final nail in the coffin of the WTO's Doha Round with its upending of the Bali agreement from last year. This has left plurilateral pre...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Market Commentary

Corn prices chewed back and forth in a narrow 5-cent range before closing slightly lower, while the soy complex was an island of strength among commodities...

Budget Outlook through 2024

Revenues are expected to increase by about 8 percent this year versus last year to $3 trillion. They will rise from all major sources, including individual...

Happy New Year, Soybeans!

The 2013/14 U.S. soybean crop year was a notable one for the soybean industry, and the new 2014/15 U.S. soybean year promises to be memorable as well.Lest...

Oilseed Highlights

One of the issues certain to see a great deal of attention in Argentina's presidential election next year is the country's high export taxes on soybeans, w...

Farm Bill’s New Program Signup Starts with Dairy

USDA announced that the signup for the new Dairy Margin Protection Program (DMP) will begin 2 September and run through 28 November. It will allow farmers...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

There have been discussions about conducting an audit of the Food Corporation of India (FCI), which does not know how many stocks it is actually holding. I...

APHIS Priorities; Non Sequitor

U.S. cattlemen are upset that USDA's Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) has proposed designating Argentina's Patagonia region as free of fo...

Things You Hear at Farm Shows

Some of the comments you read following these shows are insightful, while others make little sense. There are also a few that fit both categories.The late...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Market Commentary

The only markets that could hold gains today were September soybean and soymeal futures. Corn and wheat traded lower most of today's session with the new c...

Policy Choices and Prospects

A recent survey asking which of the world's various farm policies is "the best" produced quite a strong response. Our most recent online survey showed a c...

WTO COOL Ruling Reportedly Against U.S.

Reports indicate that the WTO has once again ruled against the U.S. on country of origin labeling (COOL) and that Canada and Mexico may impose retaliatory...

Oilseed Highlights

Reports out of China indicate some firms there have recently defaulted on palm oil purchases due to banks discontinuing loans. The one most notably impacte...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Ukraine and Grain

From the start of Ukraine's 2014/15 crop year on 1 July until 27 August, the country has exported a hefty volume of grains. However, the new southeastern f...

Market Commentary

Wheat led the way, and Chicago wheat traded above its 50-day moving average for the first time in three months. Corn futures closed up mostly 3-4 cents und...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Farm Policy; China; Green Error

Several Republican candidates are challenging the 2014 Farm Bill for its failure to cut food stamps more and better address its corporate welfare. Frustrat...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

As of 20 August 2014 and from the beginning of MY 2014/15, Russia exported 5.857 MMT of grains (22.7 percent more than during the same period in the previo...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Argentine farmers remain frustrated with their government's policies that are causing a consistent decline in the planting of grains (corn, wheat, barley)...

Market Commentary

Aside from the wheat markets' 5-7 cent gains, the balance of the market appeared to be marking time in very slow trade within relatively narrow trading ran...

TPP; Disruptors; Food Prejudice

U.S. politicians have American industry now facing billions of dollars' worth of trade retaliation under the WTO for having tried to stymie food imports fr...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

Turkey has had quite a difficult crop year thus far with wheat barley and corn production appearing to be down by about 10 percent on average. It is expect...

Oilseed Highlights

Pakistan has traditionally sourced most of its soymeal from India and more recently from Argentina. A combination of factors has now caused  Pakistani...

Market Commentary

The U.S. dollar index closed higher again, putting it at a 12-month high against many currencies to the benefit of competing exporters like Brazil, Russia...

More Nuanced Look at Labor from the Federal Reserve

It is almost as if the Fed is looking for excuses to continue easy money policies now that inflation is in the range it targeted and employment news would...

Awash in Records

The 2014/15 year of big crops will stand out all the more since it follows several years during which weather-related crop production problems in the U.S...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

International Economic Roundup

Brazil is the seventh-largest economy in the world and has seen significant growth based on commodity exports to China. However, there are signs of weakeni...

Market Commentary

Corn actually behaved pretty well today, considering soybean futures were putting in new contract lows and wheat was also weak. Weekend rains coupled with...

U.S. Spring Wheat Crop Headed for Trouble

Western Europe's wheat crop  and the U.S. hard red winter wheat crop both have major quality issues, and it now appears that the North American spring...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Communist Wine; Orwellian Organic

The Russian Parliament next week will consider legislation that would nationalize the country's wineries. A state monopoly on wine is contended to accompli...

China In-Country Analysis

The drought that continues to afflict China's corn belt is impacting the new crop. Some estimate that production will be cut by 7.5-8 MMT. As a result, the...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Flurry of Policy Developments

U.S. farm groups have opposed the "top down" effort by U.S. EPA regulators attempting to dictate farming practices around the Chesapeake Bay, but they are...

Market Commentary

Uncertainties in the Black Sea region and the strong old crop soybean market kept markets strong into the close today. The Pro Farmer Crop Tour across the...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

While India wants to liberalize trade with other nations, it has also come out strongly against the WTO and asserts that it is the organization itself that...

More Things to Keep You Up at Night

It is no longer profitable to plant corn with prices less than $3.00 a bushel across the northern Corn Belt, and we could be on the cusp of a significant a...

Sugar Market Turnaround

Sugar took a big crash a year ago with the market price falling below loan forfeiture levels, but prices this year have tightened up and are potentially ge...

Oilseed Highlights

Canada's canola crop forecast is lower than expected as a result of reduced canola plantings and too much rainfall in parts of Manitoba and Saskatchewan as...

Immigration; Boogeyman; Mustard

Immigration reform proponents have reduced spending on the issue at the same time conservative politicians have increased their rhetoric against illegal im...

Market Commentary

Some commercial buying of corn futures was noted today that helped the corn market close mostly 1-2 cents higher in moderate volume. Wheat futures closed h...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Dodd-Frank: Four Years After

That four years have passed and barely more than half of the required new regulations have been finalized is a sign of the complexities of the legislation...

Cheaper Feed and Record Meat Prices Impact Livestock

Cattle and hog prices are feeling some pressure from lower wholesale meat prices, while the beef, pork and poultry sectors are all likely to benefit from l...

Market Commentary

Overnight trading saw corn and soybean futures prices edge lower, while wheat values firmed a few cents. In truth, there was nothing around to inspire trad...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Ukraine's sea ports shipped 595,800 MT of grain cargos for export between 11-17 August. The most active importers during this period were Saudi Arabia (123...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Various participants in Argentina's corn market expected that prices could temporarily heat up when the government recently announced a shutdown of corn li...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Infrastructure Problems; Old Ships

The failure to undertake infrastructure improvements is now burdening commerce in the U.S. the same way it does in Brazil. U.S. of Brazil During the Great...

Soybeans: Out with the Old, In with the New

There is always some tension in the transition between the old soybean crop year and the new one. The time gap between the statistical end of the old crop...

Market Commentary

It feels as though the corn and wheat markets are in something of a lull. Prices of both have already fallen so far that sellers have become reluctant to p...

Oilseed Highlights

One of the bright spots for global soybean demand in the past two decades has been Southeast Asia, which has had solid economic growth in recent years as w...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

In light of the sanctions imposed against Russia, grain/oilseed-importing countries in the region such as Turkey, Egypt and Morocco are looking very closel...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Backtracking; Treadmill; Hoodwinked; Invest

Blaming fast food and sugar for obesity has been easy because attacking agribusiness bears little political cost. Now Britain's Institute of Economic Affai...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

Quality problems with the wheat crop in France and Germany will certainly reduce the EU's export potential. However, the resulting sharp drop in EU wheat e...

U.S. Situation Improves, but Shuttles Still Expensive

The key to shuttle freight values will be what the turn times are through the harvest and into the winter. The railroads were able to essentially triple th...

Farmland Values: Effects of Crops versus Livestock and Dairy

Farmland values in the Midwest have been dropping, based on near perfect growing conditions and an anticipation of a bumper crop this year for corn and soy...

China In-Country Analysis

The most recent China Customs data indicates that soybean imports in July reached 7.47 MMT, substantially higher than the official estimate of 5.87 MMT,&nb...

Market Commentary

Markets were mixed overnight with corn higher, wheat lower and soybeans mixed. There was no escalation in the Russia/Ukraine situation and that led to anot...

Policy Choices; Ethanol Room; Africa

Even if the FSA data has indicated a slightly lower acreage, the U.S. is still going to produce an exceptionally large corn crop. Meanwhile, U.S. EPA may w...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

More Confusion on U.S. Acres

One of the more puzzling aspects of USDA reports always seems to be the planted acreage estimates. In part, that is because there are two separate USDA age...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Due to the Indian monsoon's slow start and its current lull as well as the delayed sowing, some of the major crops' yields could be small. India also may n...

Reflection; Gripe; Rotary Dial; Sweet News

The German leak of one-third of a 1,500 page Canada-EU Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) involved more a gripe about the investor state dis...

Propane Outlook

After propane demand for drying crops in the upper Midwest surged and reduced inventories just before the start of winter last year, the season when it is...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Market Commentary

Wheat was trading steady to slightly lower overnight until reports hit the news that Ukraine had fired on a Russian truck convoy within its borders. That p...

Market Commentary

The sharply higher basis levels for spot soybeans and the antics of the expiring August contract rippled throughout the rest of the soybean market and even...

Where Are We Headed Now?

Any way one slices the numbers, the world has rapidly shifted from years of concerns about tight supplies of grains and soybeans toward questions about wha...

WASDE

USDA raised its total red meat and poultry production forecasts in the August WASDE report that was released this week. These increases were based on heavi...

Oilseed Highlights

Throughout the past year, USDA has been forecasting China's soybean imports in MY 2013/14 would reach 69 MMT, but that estimate may actually be too pessiim...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Embargo Blowback; Muddled Salt

There is no doubt that the Russian food import embargo is stinging exporters, particularly in Europe, but the West needs to hold a kumbaya on the situation...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Ukraine's harvest totaled 33.764 MMT of grains and pulses as of 11 August, which included 9.12 MMT of barley, 23.348 MMT of wheat and 429,000 MT of rye.&nb...

Cereal Coercion; Sustainability

Environmentalists and some members of Congress are demanding that the government not approve Dow's Enlist Duo, genetically modified corn and soybeans that...

Market Commentary

USDA's estimates for U.S. and world grain and soybean production and stocks continued to reverberate throughout the markets. The shift to record crops and...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Argentine farmer selling of soybeans is under 50 percent for the present campaign. It is doubtful that any additional beans will be sold to China from Sept...

Forecasts from the August WASDE

Whether or not one considers today's August WASDE to be bearish depends on one's pre-report assumptions and the extent to which bearish expectations have a...

Troika; 91%; Onions

Notable is the decision by Kazakhstan and Belarus, the other two-thirds of the Russian-led Eurasian Customs Union, to not join Moscow in its food import bo...

Oilseed Highlights

Oil World is reporting this week that biodiesel production in Argentina and Brazil will increase sharply in both countries this year with Brazil's producti...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

Syria does not seem to be any closer to finalizing its wheat sale to Iraq as the government reported last week that 200,000 MT were awaiting shipment, but...

Market Commentary

USDA's conservative U.S. corn yield of 167.4 bushels/acre and production estimate of 14.032 billion bushels probably disappointed corn market bears, but th...

Argentine Biodiesel Import Issues

There are actually two issues here. The first is the alternative biomass tracking process, which will run its course, and the second is Argentina's Differe...

U.S. Crop Revenue Assurance Guarantees Will Be Sharply Lower in 2015

Next year's program prices will not be established until February, so It is very early to be discussing what might happen in 2015 from a production standpo...

Crop Insurance Premium Subsidies

The underlying fundamental issue with  crop insurance is its actuarial soundness, and gaining higher levels of coverage through premium subsidies has...

Market Commentary

The traditional trading funds are still reportedly long just over 70,000 contracts of corn. If that length is liquidated on a really bearish USDA report to...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

The Romanian and Bulgarian wheat harvest has finally been completed after a long delay due to the excessive rainfall in July and early August. Quality has...

China In-Country Analysis

After serious food safetly problems in recent years, China's Ministry of Agriculture and the National Health and Family Planning Commissions jointly issued...

Russia; Bots; Rice

Russia is over six times more important as an export market for Europe's farmers than it is for their American counterparts (€12.2 billion versus $1.9 bill...

Control of the Senate: Ag Committee Turnover

Of all the Senate win and loss combinations to change party control of that body, the Agriculture Committee plays a key role with five of its members retir...

Change the Campaign

There has to be a market for biotech or else there will be no premium for non-biotech/organic. The opportunity missed by conventional agriculture continues...

Tuesday’s USDA Numbers Almost Have to be Bearish

There seems to be little doubt the production estimates will go up from the record corn and soybean yields already used in the July WASDE. The only questio...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

India's Ministry of External Affairs has suggested that it could allow U.S. chicken legs free entry into India if the U.S. permits imports of Indian basmat...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Market Commentary

Rumors that Moscow might be withdrawing slightly from its aggressive posture with Ukraine seemed to trigger a wave of selling across the wheat markets. Cor...

Russia Case; TTP/TPP; Government

China is prohibiting government procurement of all Apple products and Moscow has announced food import bans that only crudely reference any kind of WTO jus...

Russia Bans U.S. Meat and Dairy Products Imports

As retaliation for sanctions imposed on its energy, financial and weapons manufacturing sectors, Russia has banned a number of U.S.ag products, particularl...

Hoping Against Hope

There seems to be a common thread emerging among many people with vested interests in corn and soybean prices and what direction they take. Farmers, cash g...

Market Commentary

Overnight trading in grain and soy futures was quiet and mixed. Grains were slightly weaker, while late buying brought soybeans modestly higher. Trade duri...

Ag Review: Timing the Commodity Cycle

Taming the Commodity Cycle Instead of reducing the biofuel mandate, policymakers need to make it a countercyclical approach to balancing supply and demand...

Oilseed Highlights

Argentina's Buenos Aires Grain Exchange today indicated the nation's soybean crop in 2014 totaled a record 55.5 MMT, while Brazil's Conab reduced its estim...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Market Commentary

Funds bought around 8,000 contracts of corn to fuel today's price rally, which took place despite rains in the western Corn Belt. The rally also ignored a...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Ukraine's winter wheat harvest has reached its highest record level ever. This includes the period since the country became independent as well as the time...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Dead Zones; Rating Africa; Trade Games; Water

One initiative arising out of the U.S.-Africa Leaders' Summit this week in Washington is a commitment by the U.S. Agency for International Development to p...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Argentine corn premiums continue to decline, and the potential export surplus is close to 4.5 MMT. It may be difficult to find demand for such volume due t...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Market Commentary

It was "Turnaround Tuesday" for corn and soy complex futures today, but not for wheat. Outside markets offered no support for grains, soybeans and other co...

Oilseed Highlights

The French analytical firm Strategie Grains this week raised its forecast for the EU's rapeseed crop this year to a record 22.9 MMT, which is 400,000 MT ab...

Dietary Guidelines: Politics on a Plate

Sustainability is the latest ingredient to be mixed in to the nutrition policy making process. It is also a topic that the Dietary Guidelines Committee has...

Crops With and Without Problems

U.S. spring planted crops have enjoyed excellent conditions to date, and they do not seem to be facing any major problems – at least so far. However, the s...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

Turkey's reduced crop production, resulting from several weather-related issues, is negatively impacting both wheat and barley exports as well as increasin...

Gridlock, Shopping and the Future

With around 50 heads of state in Washington this week for the U.S.-Africa Leaders' Summit, the streets are ablaze with the police sirens intended to keep t...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Market Commentary

Soybeans started last night with some follow-through selling from last Friday's weak day, but that selling quickly was absorbed by the short covering cause...

China In-Country Analysis

China exported 1.36 MMT of soymeal during the first half of 2014, a twofold surge over the first half of 2013. The average profit margin of Chinese soybean...

Canadian Crop Tour Yield Estimates Well Below 2013

Western Canada's producers will have several other issues to deal with as a result of the excessive rains. These could include another low protein spring w...

American Idiot; Time to Challenge; Superfoods

India's Prime Minister Narenda Modi wants Washington to recognize that India is burdened with trying to help the poor. Meanwhile, the county spends $1.1 bi...

Stock Market Bearish Despite Fundamentals

Most of the causes for last week's stock market drop are outside of the U.S. as most domestic economic news is promising and supportive. However another po...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

After three weeks of incessant rains, the yield and quality of the wheat in the western regions of Bulgaria and Romania have been affected significantly. F...

Philosophy; Perfection; Self-Help; Tariffs

A letter from 140 U.S. House members is demanding that Japan fully open its market to U.S. agricultural products, or it should be kicked out of the Trans-P...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Although India's Prime Minister Modi recently emphasized the need to help farmers increase production with fewer inputs as well as less water and land, two...

What Happened to the El Nino?

The Northern Hemisphere growing season of 2014 will have to rank as one of the calmest, most boring in a very long time, and an El Nino pattern had been ex...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Salmonella in Chicken: U.S. And Foreign Policy Roles

As the U.S. Department of Agriculture's Food Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS) today announced the New Poultry Inspection System (NPIS), which is intend...

Market Commentary

In today's market action, soybeans and corn prices fell again, while wheat prices firmed. Forecasts for rain next week kept the corn and soybean markets on...

India’s Bounty; Sector Comparison

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is certainly not going to allow Trade Faciitation (TF) to move forward without the WTO green light to subsidize India's...

Legacies from the Great War

World War I had an impact on American agriculture that in some respects is still being felt today. To ensure there was enough food to feed the army, the U...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Market Commentary

Corn continued to drift lower despite the weekly export number being above expectations. The November (new crop) soybean contract traded both sides of unch...

Court Upholds COOL

In a 9-2 decision this week, the U.S. Court of Appeals in the District of Columbia upheld USDA's rule for mandatory country-of-origin-labeling (COOL) for m...

Oilseed Highlights

The Brazilian Association of Vegetable Oil Industries (ABIOVE) said its members have not yet secured agreement with Monsanto on a royalty collection proced...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

The corn market in Argentina is currently quiet, and basis premiums weak. One reason is Argentine corn cannot compete in Colombia and Peru due to preferent...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russia exported 3.9 MMT of corn as of 30 June and from the beginning of MY 2013/14, which is double the entire MY 2012/13 result. The largest importers wer...

Bitter Tax; Double Breakfast; Defensive Loser

Representative Rosa DeLauro (D-Connecticut) is again pushing her proposed national tax on sugar-sweetened beverages as the silver bullet solution to obesit...

Market Commentary

The pace of futures trade overnight and again today was considerably slower than in recent days. Prices for the soy complex were hammered again, while corn...

Oilseed Highlights

One would think that with South America harvesting a record volume of soybeans in 2014, U.S. soybean export sales might lag a bit going into MY 2014/15. Ho...

Leverage and Imbalances

Trade is increasingly distorted despite WTO tenets to the contrary, which is made evident by contrasting policies being enacted by various countries around...

Fun and Games with Weather

Every summer in the U.S. produces some kind of a weather market. We had begun to wonder if the summer of 2014 was going to be a rare exception to that rule...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

Jordan has increased the price paid to farmers for local wheat to $635/MT in the hope of increasing local production, while import quality wheat can be pur...

Market Commentary

Futures prices for the soy complex and grains started out higher during the overnight session, but they soon turned lower. Today's weather model runs added...

New Regulations for Fuel Transport by Rail

Shippers of both ethanol and petroleum fuel are worried that the new, slower speed standards will cause more backlogs and the potential volume requirements...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

Tthe wheat quality in Europe has suffered from the excessive rains during the harvest and seems to have deteriorated the most in France. As a consequence,...

Market Commentary

Wheat could only manage a steady to slightly weaker day today as soybeans were very strong and corn closed a nickel higher. The market's attitude is still...

Railroad Backlog Emerging as Market and Regulatory Issue

The railroads report that they are working on solutions to the rail backup problem for the fall grain harvest season, and BNSF projects that it is on track...

Lower Prices Will Mean Smaller Margins

The six-year run of high commodity prices coupled with generally good yields and record net farm income have also allowed all of the ancillary industries t...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

China In-Country Analysis

Although China has announced a record harvest this summer, a major concern among rural development researchers is sustainability, considering the combinati...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

While India's monsoon has somewhat rebounded, farming communities have been impacted by the delayed rains. Rural demand is diminishing with crop selection...

Republicans and Democrats Versus EPA

Two sets of U.S. senators met with administration officials this week to discuss actions pending at U.S. EPA and came away with very different reactions.Tw...

More Things to Keep You Up at Night

Credit Suisse announced this week that it will exit its commodity trading business after reporting a second quarter loss of $779 million, much of which is...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Horseless; Knowledge

Europe stymies beef imports while concurrently shorting the animal feed market, which collectively makes meat higher-priced for consumers and also creates...

Market Commentary

Wheat turned positive, corn tried to get back to unchanged and soybeans cut their losses significantly by mid-morning. All of the markets remain oversold t...

Oilseed Highlights

While many in the Indian soybean industry have hopes the country's crop yields and planted area will rise in the future, the prevailing view is that it wil...

Meaning?; RFS; Correction

Antagonists on both sides of the Atlantic have complained about a lack of transparency in the TTIP negotiations. Now a recently leaked copy of the EU's dra...

Global Pork Overview: Tale of Two Markets

While those countries most impacted by the Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea virus (PEDv) are seeing record-high pork prices, others are experiencing a much more b...

How Big is Big and the Consequences

As the growing season has progressed, discussions about potential yields and crop sizes have come to dominate markets. However, it may turn out to be a mem...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Market Commentary

The increased trading activity overnight carried over into the day session, especially in the soy complex. However, the enthusiasm over higher prices dimme...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

The Russian Ministry of Agriculture announced that 1.007 MMT of grain were exported as of 16 July 2014 and from the beginning of MY 2014/15 as Ukraine expo...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Market Commentary

Markets have been greatly oversold, as we have observed before, and were due for a bounce. So when the soy complex began to exert a little upward muscle, c...

Pests; Broken; Sequence; Data

Brussels continues to rebut U.S. complaints about its biotech approval system, but not a single approval has occurred this year despite repeated safety cle...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

South American producers have more problems and less financial support than their North American counterparts, and such difficulties could easily transitio...

CBO Releases Long-Term Budget Outlook

The 2011 and 2014 budget deals and the 2013 sequester have made a significant difference in total federal spending, mostly in the discretionary area, but h...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

In light of recent large fines levied by the U.S. government on financial institutions for avoiding strict Sudanese trade sanctions, many banks and trading...

Oilseed Highlights

China's soymeal exports rose to 301,731 MT in June, a 128 percent increase over a year ago. The sharp rise has been driven primarily by a shortage of India...

World Wheat Outlook

Wheat is still considered politically significant, especially in certain countries where it is the principal agricultural crop or a principal food. If worl...

A Bore; Reality

India commercially exports rice, soymeal and wheat, invests in a space program and has now committed billions to a BRICS bank. All the while, it claims pov...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Market Commentary

Yesterday afternoon's weekly crop condition report set the tone for today's corn market. The 76 percent good/excellent rating so late in July along with 56...

Projected Returns Drop below Break-Even Levels

The implication going forward is that corn acres are in jeopardy for the 2015 crop year under the current market price structure. Soybeans have had a signi...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

TTIP Angst; Local Joke

Those on the U.S. agriculture side express disappointment that Brussels is still pushing geographic indicators in TTIP discussions, while bringing nothing...

More Scrutiny for EPA’s Waters of the U.S. Rule

To date, the one EPA action that has triggered a complaint by the National Farmers Union (NFU) is the setting of the 2014 biofuels volumes, which its lette...

Market Commentary

It is worthwhile noting that index funds are reportedly still holding about 300,000 long corn contracts. Corn condition ratings were unchanged in today's r...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

The weather remained unstable in Romania and Bulgaria last week, impacting the harvest. Exporters in Bulgaria are only offering feed wheat at the moment as...

China In-Country Analysis

The latest USDA 30 June Acreage Report helped push down soybean futures significantly. As a result, Chinese soybean trading companies and crushers were hit...

APHIS Withdraws GE Information Sharing Rule

The purpose of the rule was to help state and tribal governments better review and comment on the notifications and permit applications received by APHIS a...

Laughing; Ukraine; Hopeful and Concerning

It is Republicans who would be on the defensive in November if they are blocking a TPP agreement that has strong support from the business community. Laugh...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Market Commentary

Soybean futures turned higher at the opening bell this morning on more USDA soybean sales announcements. Wheat futures turned sharply lower, which pulled c...

Bring on the Heat

Extended forecasts released yesterday continue to point toward cooler than normal temperatures for most of the Corn Belt. This means the soy complex could...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

While India has been challenged over its recently enacted Food Security Act that is viewed by developed nations as a violation of the WTO Bali agreement, s...

FSIS Proposes Retailer Traceability for Ground Beef

USDA's Food Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS) has proposed new regulations to provide more information on the beef that is used for grinding, which woul...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Trading Market Spreads 101

The strategy of buying a futures contract in a nearby time frame, then selling it just before that contract expires and replacing it by purchasing a more d...

Look Out; Expensive Straw

Given that the EU has refused to adopt science-based SPS measures and Trade Commissioner Karel De Gucht has just promised the European Parliament that bord...

Market Commentary

Corn futures closed fractionally higher in consolidating trade on both sides of yesterday's closes. The Malaysian plane disaster lit up the market, briefly...

Oilseed Highlights

Germany's biofuel industry association today said a new greenhouse gas reduction scheme passed yesterday is likely to result in reduced biofuel consumption...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Awaiting Default; Miscellany

USDA's Economic Research Service looked at mandatory and discretionary SPS measures for imported fruits and vegetables versus actual trade flows and conclu...

Market Commentary

Wheat reluctantly followed corn higher overnight, but Chicago and KC contracts gave it all back by the end of the day session and closed mixed. MGE spring...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Harvesting is difficult in the eastern regions of Ukraine where the anti-terrorist operation is in progress, and some areas in Luhanska and Donetska oblast...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

An interesting development is occurring in Brazil with the Paranagua paper market, which is normally used as a hedge and reference for farmers, traders and...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Farm Bill Payments Could Be Coming

USDA's latest WASDE report puts the new Price Loss Coverage (PLC) and Agriculture Risk Coverage (ARC) programs more in play with news of good crop conditio...

Market Commentary

After being down as much as 16 cents, new crop November soybeans fought their way back to close unchanged. They even traded in green numbers briefly. Their...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

World Corn Outlook for 2014/15

We expect that estimated U.S. corn production will rise close to 14 billion bushels and, moreover, that favorable conditions for other important corn-growi...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

Iraqi grain traders advise that it has become impossible for Syria to deliver the wheat to Iraq that was arranged in June 2013 as truckers are not able to...

Oilseed Highlights

Argentina's biodiesel exports fell sharply in 2013 as a result of the anti-dumping duties imposed by the EU. In response, the Argentine government initiate...

Organic Mush; Domain Angst

Europe's wine industry is in a dispute with the internet domain body called ICANN. The industry fears that new domain categories called .wine and .vin coul...

Financial Readjustment

Farmers have used the bonus depreciation allowance aggressively for several consecutive years to buy new equipment and build new farm facilities to reduce...

Market Commentary

Wheat and soybean futures were showing double-digit gains most of the day, while corn trailed far behind with 3-4 cent gains. U.S. financial markets were v...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

Starting tomorrow, the EU will introduce an import levy on corn that is based on the last 10 day-average price of U.S. corn to Rotterdam versus the EU's ma...

Lesser Prairie Chickens and Zimbabwean Elephants

Kansas has announced that it will oversee the breeding of  Lesser Prairie Chickens (LPCs) for release into habitat. Although the concept in relation t...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

China In-Country Analysis

China's Ministry of Agriculture (MOA) issued a policy document aimed at reducing food loss during grain production. One of the notable reasons behind this...

Farm Bill Implementation Hearing

Congress made a number of major changes to crop support programs, and farmers will be faced with some decision-making regarding new coverage options. It is...

USDA Numbers Bearish as Expected

USDA did not raise the corn or soybean yields in the July WASDE, and most analysts believe that will occur in August. Increased yields, of course, will mea...

China; Trade; India; Water

Some trade policy analysts are convinced that politics will prevent any progress on trade agreements this year. Yet the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) neg...

Market Commentary

As expected, today's release of the July WASDE added to the overall bearish tone to the market that has persisted since USDA's quarterly stocks reports and...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

India's 2014/15 budget attempts to target economic growth at 7–8 percent over a three-four year period after less than 5 percent growth for the past two ye...

Oilseed Highlights

Coca Cola and Pepsi have announced they will remove brominated vegetable oil (BVO) from many of their popular soft drinks, but not because the FDA has foun...

Ag Review: Examining China

China's Broad Developments China is spending money on agriculture and trading futures, but self-sufficiency remains an unlikely outcome. China Pork Revolut...

Better TF; Emotions

Trade Facilitation (TF), the WTO concept agreed to at Bali last year for reducing and making transparent the transactional costs that governments impose on...

Market Commentary

USDA will release its July WASDE numbers at 12 PM (EDT) tomorrow. That also gave us some choppy trade today, but volume was very good in corn and soybeans...

Rooster Impotence

Broiler production expansion has been somewhat lagging in the past two years for several reasons, and now the major breeding stock provider Aviagen Group h...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

The “Noisy” Uptick of Food Prices

It is the costs of food and energy that affect consumers first and impact them most, especially those with lower incomes, and those prices are on the rise...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Recent declines in CBOT futures prices extend out through 2015 and are making South American producers nervous about the future margins that they can expec...

Market Commentary

Grain and soy futures prices continued to leak lower, although at a somewhat less frenetic pace. Some non-commercials appear to be putting on short positio...

Doomed; Ditch; Big Guns

For the industry and services sectors, agriculture has always been a thorn when it comes to trade negotiations. That remains the case, but a heartening app...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Approximately 63 MMT of grain may be harvested in Ukraine for MY 2014/15, which would be one of the largest in the country's history.  Grain and port...

Debate over Economic News

A number of economic reports for June were released last Thursday, and the news is now full of debate about whether these new statistical indicators are go...

Weather, Crops and Prices

Ever since USDA began providing this year's first weekly crop condition reports up to the present, the conditions reported for corn and soybeans have spark...

Marketing Impacts

The U.S. originally opposed a dispute settlement mechanism in the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement on issues surrounding Sanitary and Phytosanitar...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Market Commentary

The selling pace in the corn market has slowed as the December contract gradually slips towards the $4.00 level. Friday's corn supply and demand should not...

Oilseed Highlights

As a result of insufficient rainfall in key growing areas, India's soybean plantings as of 4 July are reported to be about 90 percent less than the 4.3 mil...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

While Turkey's demand for both soybeans and soymeal is rising due to expansion in the poultry and livestock sector, it can only be met by increasing import...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

China In-Country Analysis

China's rejection of U.S. DDGS has resulted in those cargoes being resold to its neighbors,  which are also the major export destination markets for i...

Surreal in Nigeria and other Policy Curiosities

Nigerian  Minister of Agriculture Akinwumi Adesina went to great lengths to assure the public that biotechnology was not being used in Nigerian agricu...

It’s a Lonely Time for Bulls

The traditional speculative trading funds are now holding a major short position in wheat (near a record) and have exited their long positions in corn and...

Market Commentary

Excluding the liquidating July contracts, today's highs for soybean and corn futures contracts never came close to last Thursday's closes. Despite the mark...

Climate Change Impact on Agriculture

Potential impacts of climate change that do not consider agricultural adaptation are of limited use and insight. This is a long-term trend, so anticipating...

COOL Attracts Attention Outside of Ag

The COOL Reform Coalition, representing a diverse group of businesses, has sent a letter to Congress urging USDA to abandon its implementing rule for the l...

One Long-Term View

The first thing catching our attention is that while the U.S. 2014 soybean plantings rose more than 8 million acres higher than last year and the new 2014...

Market Commentary

Today's holiday-shortened session again featured, if that is the right word, lower corn and soybean prices. The 4th of July holiday is typically the point...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

TTIP Titanic; U.S. Myopic

U.S. aggies have shared tough talk with European officials about their expectations for the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP), and EU A...

Oilseed Highlights

The combined Argentine and Brazilian biodiesel production is forecast to  rise by 1 MMT in 2014, driven by Brazil's increase in the mandatory biodiese...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

The bearish result of USDA's data on Monday is causing adjustments to occur in South American pricing of corn and soybeans. Increasing the complexity of th...

Market Commentary

Soybean futures continued to slump lower in the aftermath of USDA's estimate of 84.8 million soybean acres, visions of a 3.8 or 3.9 billion bushel soybean...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

On 1 July, the European Commission Standing Committee on the Food Chain and Animal Health approved cancellation of the current restrictions on imports of U...

Silly; Litigation Please

The Obama administration has consistently shown its belief in the efficacy of biotechnology, and its next step should be preparing the legal briefs for a W...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Some Post-Report Thoughts

There is now probably not much to be said about yesterday's USDA stock and acreage reports that is new. However, there are a few things gleaned from them t...

Huge Increase in U.S. Soybean Plantings: Now What?

If the U.S. does produce a huge soybean crop this fall that causes soybean prices to fall well below $10/bushel, the greatest short-term impact likely will...

Biotech; Policy Shorts

Since a recent study acknowledges that organic foods are garnering market share by stoking fears about biotech, the conventional food industry should deman...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Conservation Compliance for Crop Insurance Rule Issued

Section 2611 of the 2014 Farm Bill links a farmer's eligibility for the premium crop insurance subsidy to compliance with conservation provisions of the 19...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

Turkey may pull out of its customs union with the EU if the EU/U.S. Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) is ratified without its inclusion...

Market Commentary

There is no doubt that USDA's acreage and stocks estimates combined with the fancy weekly crop condition ratings have suddenly created a very bearish envir...

Market Commentary

USDA's soybean acreage estimate blew the market away, coming in nearly 3 million acres above the March estimate. Corn stocks were 100 million bushels above...

Swine Herd Down More Than Anticipated

A reduction in the swine herd due to the impact of the Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea virus (PEDv) had been anticipated, and analysts had expected USDA's quarte...

USDA Reports Bearish

The quarterly stocks numbers for corn and soybeans were slightly bearish. The soybean number at 405 million bushels was 27 million bushels higher than expe...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

Most analysts are now predicting that the 2014 Russian and Ukrainian crops will be higher than last year with Russia's estimated at 52-54 MMT and Ukraine's...

China In-Country Analysis

It was announced on 24 June that China will revise its food safety law to include tougher rules for safety and stricter supervision. However, decentralized...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Fresh; Leverage; Rant

The White House is withholding a $277 million Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) aid package to El Salvador until that country ends a domestic corn and...

Market Commentary

Standard commodity analysts may soon adjust their stories to proclaim, "Production will be large but demand is even larger!" Similar market dialog occurred...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Following pressure from the sugar lobby, largely the cooperatives, GOI has agreed to bail out the sugar industry once again and has increased the import du...

Does Rain Make Grain or Not?

Everyone associates crop stress with heat and dryness. It can also be caused by too much water, and this is starting to attract some attention as the rains...

CBO Issues Report on the RFS

The purpose of the report was to address concerns among policy makers and analysts about the feasibility of meeting the higher standards for blending biofu...

Elements of Beef Expansion

Herd expansion still relies on the profitability of the cow-calf sector, which is easy to forget with record cattle prices. Retaining heifers, though, is a...

Policy; CAFOs; Forum Shopping

Beijing will reportedly experiment with making a deficiency payment to farmers in order to bridge the difference between the market price and what farmers...

Market Commentary

KC July HRW was up 7 cents as rains are again delaying harvest in Kansas and posing the threat of quality deterioration. Rains have also delayed the Mid-So...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Oilseed Highlights

Demand for animal feed is on the rise in China as a result of an end to avian flu outbreaks this spring and a recovery in swine profitability. This increas...

Some Off the Wall Questions

In the course of searching for something new and different to write about, we found ourselves thinking about a variety of generally unrelated off the wall...

World Perspectives on the Move

Please note that World Perspectives has changed locations and our new address is: 1301 Pennsylvania Ave. NW  Suite 501, Washington, DC 20004 Please...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Because of inconsistent export policies out of Argentina and recent declines in regional exportable wheat supplies, the Brazilian government will reduce th...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Market Commentary

Funds certainly did not show anxiety over the size of their July positions today. Prior to the market opening, there were still about 142,000 contracts of...

Spanking; Rules

U.S. trade negotiators are asserting that regulatory convergence under the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) will offer more safety dat...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Ukrainian grain producers will need 1.5 billion m3 of natural gas to dry the grain and oilseed crops to be harvested in 2014 and want guarantees from the g...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Market Commentary

Corn futures closed lower on favorable weather prospects that encourage thoughts of an above trend yield. Old crop soybeans and the old crop/new crop sprea...

Oilseed Highlights

The European Food Safety Agency (EFSA) has determined that Monsanto's MON 88302 biotech rapeseed event is safe for human and animal health and poses no thr...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

According to the FAO, Egypt's wheat and corn crops this year will be slightly above average size this year, but it expects that the country will have to im...

Federal Reserve Mostly Staying the Course

There was some expectation that the Federal Reserve Board would address the federal funds rate in a more aggressive manner than it did, but the official wo...

30 June and Beyond

The 30 June acreage figures will be etched in stone at the top of everyone's 2014/15 supply/demand estimates for the entire crop year until or unless they...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Global Oil Supply Buffering ISIS Impact in Iraq

While the effect of the Iraqi ISIS situation has been limited to date and the increase in U.S. and world production has provided a buffer, there are certai...

Why North Dakota Has Joined the Corn Belt

Has it been the new plant genetics that have pushed corn and soybeans farther north and west, or has it really been the shift to a Corn Belt climate across...

Fights and Battles

The war on fat, sugar and salt rivals the longstanding war over biotechnology. The latest involved a broadside from lawyers Rick Frank and Bruce Silverglad...

China In-Country Analysis

The 17 June state soybean reserves auction size was 358,558 MT. However, weak demand was evident as sales totaled only 72,852 MT, which is a lower turnover...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

The excessive rains that have persisted in Bulgaria and Romania for more than two months peaked last Thursday night. Farmers in the most severely affected...

Market Commentary

There was plenty of market chatter this morning trying to explain the last minute surge in soybean and soymeal futures last Friday. Trade this week could s...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

India's new government plans to revamp the flagship scheme of its predecssor, the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (MNREGA), and h...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Market Commentary

Corn futures were slightly lower overnight and early today before gradually pushing toward slightly higher. There was never any concerted selling pressure...

Senate Appropriations: Minibus Parked

The Senate minibus appropriations bill, which covered the Agriculture, Commerce, Justice, Transportation and Housing and Urban Development Departments, has...

Wheat is Not Just Wheat

There is only one class of corn and one of soybeans, but there are officially six classes of wheat produced in the U.S. that all have different properties...

Oilseed Highlights

Because of the heavy rainfall, some farmers meeting in Minnesota said they have lost as much as 10-15 percent of their crops to flooding. At this point, th...

Looking East; Rubbish; Another FTA

Should  the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) reach fruition this year, the pressure on Brussels to recalibrate will be great as capital markets have al...

Market Commentary

Export sales were generally light, reflecting increased competition from other origins and the buyers' hopes for lower prices to come. However, we should p...

Oxymoronic; Alternative Motive

It is time for Congress to reassess the RFS and rewrite its requirements to match both the technical feasibility and market economics that currently prevai...

Global Food Security Challenge

The goal of ending world hunger has always had universal support, but for many years the challenges involved in achieving this have tended to stay on the f...

Prices for Proteins at All Time High

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics' latest release for May 2014, the seasonally adjusted prices for red meat, poultry, eggs and even fish (driven...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

The Argentine soybean harvest is 90 percent complete, while farmer selling is only 35 percent finished, which is significantly behind the historical pace...

End Game; Rice Price

Rice is one of those thinly traded (less than 10 percent of production moves into international trade), highly subsidized commodities that annoys everyone...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Ukrainian milling wheat and feed wheat prices declined on the domestic market as farmers in the southern regions started harvesting winter wheat and have r...

Market Commentary

KC HRW futures were the star of the market today. Poor yields and fear that heavy rains might lower the quality of what is harvested coalesced to push KC J...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Market Commentary

Wheat prices were lower early, reaching the lowest levels in over four months. However, this brought on some bargain hunting buying interest that helped pr...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Oilseed Highlights

Global biodiesel production has grown to reach approximately 29.12 MMT this year and has become the market for about 7.3 MMT of soyoil, 9.6 MMT of palm oil...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

Morocco's Attijariwafa Bank is financing $300 million for Russian wheat purchases during the 2014/15 import period. The agreement was signed in Moscow last...

House Majority Leader and Immigration Reform

Representative Eric Cantor (R-Virginia) became the first House majority leader to be defeated in a primary, based largely on immigration. Now Representativ...

The Soybean Puzzle – Again

Why are markets ignoring all of the numbers that on paper add up to an incredibly tight supply situation?USDA's weekly crop condition report rated 76 perce...

Bye-Bye Bali; Common Language

India and the G-33 group of developing nations are upset that affluent WTO members are asking for more data on New Delhi's agricultural subsidies. Common L...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

The excessive rains in Bulgaria and Romania may result in a larger share of feed versus milling wheat this year. In 2013/14, both countries exported about...

New RFS Reform Proposal: U.S. Advanced Biofuel Only

The bill would require all advanced biofuels (undifferentiated advanced, biodiesel and cellulosic) to be produced in the U.S. as well as continue to meet t...

It Could Be a Slow Summer

There are few potential crop production problems around the world as we are heading into the last half of June. It is going to be difficult to encourage an...

China In-Country Analysis

China's announcement on 7 June that that it would suspend the issuance of import permits for U.S DDGS has resulted in rising prices for domestic DDGS as we...

Market Commentary

Expectations of great crop ratings today coupled with few, if any, weather problems continue to pressure corn prices lower. Some analysts are now starting...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

There is hope that India's new government will bolster the economy's upward turn with revisions in policy. Industrial production rose in April 2014 as infl...

Market Commentary

Wheat followed corn's gains despite the fact that Egypt bought Romanian and Russian wheat yesterday. No one expected U.S. wheat to trade. The EU reported t...

Trade and Biofuel Skids

Canadian Agriculture Minister Gerry Ritz has taken a more strident position regarding agricultural trade liberalization via TPP than perhaps the Japanese a...

Too Many Shuttle Loaders

Operating margins for shuttle loaders have been exceptionally good in recent years because of good crops and strong demand, but are now becoming more compr...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

CFTC Reauthorization

The House reauthorization bill contains a number of reforms and addresses many of the Dodd-Frank Act provisions. It should be able to move through that cha...

Unchlorinated; Screwy

The House will not complete the fiscal 2015 agriculture appropriations bill until next week, but already there have been some harmful amendments adopted. U...

EPA Extends Comment Period on Water Rule

This delay is considered a major tactical victory by most livestock and agriculture groups. If approved, the new guideline would effectively remove the wor...

Oilseed Highlights

USDA increased its estimates for Argentina's domestic soymeal consumption yesterday to reflect rising exports of mixed feeds. While most of these exports i...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Market Commentary

Last year at this time, the red hot cash market and record high basis bids led the soy futures market to high prices and a wide old/new crop inverse. This...

Meat, Critics and Consumers

As the world recovers ever so gradually from the 2008-10 recession and its aftermath, the percentage of the world's population considered to be middle clas...

Market Commentary

June WASDEs are seldom major market movers, and today's report was certainly was not bullish. As if by signal, there was a general across-the-board sell of...

Majority Leader Who Delayed Farm Bill Ousted in Primary

Yesterday the number two Republican in the House lost his seat in an upset primary. Ironically, Cantor has tried for two years to schedule a legislative ag...

Selective; True Colors; Inequality

FAS Agricultural Counselor Allan Mustard (nominated to be U.S. Ambassador to Turkmenistan) has issued a report exposing how New Delhi is substantially subs...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Buyers in China are reported to be interested in buying Russian grain, and Rosselkhoznadzor (the Federal Service for Veterinary and Phytosanitary Surveilla...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

This year Argentine farmers have sold 1.57 MMT fewer soybeans than the total for the same date a year ago. The most important information for the market is...

Trade Policy: Restrictions; UnSchocked

Calculations by the EU indicate that safeguard measures against its exports rose by 10 percent in 2013, and some of the prime blockers included India, Chin...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

Egypt has decided to delay its planned increase in the price of fuel for industry, individuals and homes as the belief is that it would be bad for the over...

A Week’s Worth of Differences

The trading record shows how thoroughly the price action of November soybeans has been dominated by the July contract, which is to say, by the very tight o...

Oilseed Highlights

India's soybean-producing regions are expected to be particularly vulnerable to inadequate rains from this year's monsoon, and there also is concern about...

Market Commentary

This morning, Brazil's Conab revised its estimate of that country's 2013/14 corn production upward to 77.9 MMT, second only to last year's 81.5 MMT. M...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Market Commentary

The primary bearish factor hanging over the corn and soybean markets is the size of the speculative length. Exiting and rolling of positions by large specu...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

Both the Russian and Ukrainian wheat crops are developing under generally favorable conditions, and most analysts estimate that the combined 2014/15 surplu...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

China In-Country Analysis

Historically, China has established a minimum purchase price only for buying directly from farmers and replenishing provincial reserves. Now the central go...

Ethanol Election; Studies in Failure

Biofuel policy has always been political, and now there is a reported election year effort to use EPA's final decision on the 2014 Renewable Fuel Standards...

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