The boom in U.S. crude oil production has been a game changer in terms of handling and refining crude oil as well as supply. This is impacting the market a...
Articles
After the Reports, What Now?
Pondering the combined reports as a whole, we cannot escape the bottom-line feeling that their overall tone is bearish. However, there are several "passage...
Market Commentary
The day session was not quiet as traders refined their collective responses to yesterday's series of reports from USDA. The results were wide trading range...
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
The Egyptian government is discussing the reopening of government-owned dairy operations that were all but totally closed down in 2008 after years of falli...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Beaks with Teeth; Sugar Beating
The newly announced Chinese ban against imports of poultry and eggs from the U.S. due to a high pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) outbreak in the Pacific N...
China In-Country Analysis
With a number of Chinese processors preferring imported corn over domestic due to the former's lower price and higher quality, there are many applications...
USDA Reports Send Mixed Signals
Many analysts were expecting smaller harvested acres of corn and soybeans. We received the opposite today with an increase in both of those as well as a su...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
The market is still trying to evaluate the impact of Russia's export tax that is scheduled to be implemented 1 February, and exporters are reluctant to mak...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
Markets were mixed overnight in extremely light trading volume ahead of today's 12 pm (EST) USDA reports. The direction of the markets and the volume of tr...
Looking At Trade: Labor Strikes and Bearish Oil Impacts
The big story in the U.S. 2014 trade balance came in two chapters with the first being the labor dispute at the West Coast ports and the second concerning...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
State Court, House and Senate Committees All Boost Keystone
Today the House of Representatives passed a bill to authorize construction of the Keystone XL pipeline just hours after the Nebraska Supreme Court upheld t...
Market Commentary
Markets were quietly mixed in overnight trade, and that pattern held through much of today's session as well. Traditional funds are estimated to be long 51...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
The Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA) has expressed the industry's concern that some mills will soon file for debt reconstruction due to difficulties p...
USDA Report Preview
The quarterly corn stocks estimate is the one that always seems to hold unexpected news for the market. Surprises in this report will be as significant as...
Whipsawed Meat; Sinking Ship; Border Success
It is easy to focus on headline issues like the failed U.S. country-of-origin labeling (COOL) requirement, but U.S. and Mexican officials this week noted s...
Pork Production Up in 2015
Hog producers have already farrowed 3 percent more sows this past fall. The larger number of young pigs will begin to move pork production above the previo...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
The wheat market was the loss leader again with old crop contracts of Chicago and KC wheat falling 11-12 cents to the lowest level in about five weeks. The...
Counterintuitive; Wrong Crop; Barriers
A Pew Research survey finds most Americans support free trade as good for the country, though only a minority believes that it creates jobs. There is a mor...
Looking Back, Looking Ahead
As we transition from one year to the next, it has become our habit to make some not-so-fearless forecasts for the upcoming year. With a bow to intellectua...
Oilseed Highlights
India's Solvent Extractors Association yesterday released protein export data for December 2014. The report indicated the month's soymeal exports totaled 1...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentine exporters are again facing the same problems they encountered during the past two seasons that resulted from selling large volumes of feed barley...
Market Commentary
Corn futures closed down almost 9 cents, giving back almost all of Monday's entire rally. Falling ethanol production and dropping margins weighed on the ma...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Bust; Feints; Change; Thankless
The United Arab Emirates (UAE) has reportedly launched an effort to sustainably produce quinoa on the Arabian Peninsula by 2021, no doubt attracted t...
Oilseed Highlights
It is quite uncommon for rain to fall in India's Rajastan state in the winter. However, reports indicate precipitation was received in several areas where...
Market Commentary
What is interesting is the extent to which grain and soy futures appear (so far) to be mostly unmoved by the current outside market turmoil. The soy comple...
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
Egypt's Ministry of Supply has announced that the maximum moisture level for imported wheat will remain unchanged at 13.5 percent. It also said that the co...
Oilseed Highlights
It is quite uncommon for rain to fall in India's Rajastan state in the winter. However, reports indicate precipitation was received in several areas where...
Biotech; Meat; Forex
China is considering a food safety change that would require the labeling of foods containing genetically engineered components, banking that public awaren...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
A View of U.S. Corn Production and Stocks
No matter what corn yield and production numbers one might use for the U.S. 2014 crop, they will set new records by wide margins. This crop shows the kind...
The EPA Considers Sorghum for Cellulosic
The National Sorghum Producers (NSP) had asked that the EPA conduct an evaluation to determine which biofuels category (including cellulosic ethanol) could...
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
News UpdatesMEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST COMMENTSEgypt's Ministry of Supply has announced that the maximum moisture level for imported wheat will remain uncha...
Weather, Where Art Thou?
The markets are still not very worried about world weather, but some concerns have been expressed occasionally about the condition of the world's winter wh...
Market Commentary
The soy complex continues to defy the calls for its demise. No one is certain what triggered today's round of buying, but it was effective and pushed soybe...
Oil Prices: Looking Beyond the Bears
Ever since the late November OPEC meeting where the Saudis pledged specific efforts to stem the growth in light-tight U.S. oil production, the bears have b...
China In-Country Analysis
In a surprising turn of events, Chinese regulators recently lifted the ban on U.S. DDGS that had been set in place in October over concerns regarding the d...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Nigeria; Mexico
The People's Democratic Party (PDP) has governed Nigeria since rule by the military ended 15 years ago. However, luck may run out on the PDP and the reelec...
Market Commentary
The sharp breaks in the soy and wheat markets seemed to overpower any friendly news in the corn market. The technical outlook for corn has also turned bear...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Barbarians Indeed
The barbarians, in this case, are the institutional investors who are increasingly turning their attention and money toward agriculture and, specifically,...
Liberalize; Disparate; Uniform; Will Not Happen
The Nikkei is reporting that the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement could entail uniform tariffs on agricultural trade across all 12 countries with...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Since India lost the case at the WTO regarding the import ban on U.S. poultry, there has been pressure on the Ministry of Commerce and Department of Animal...
Meat and Livestock Overview
The newly organized North American Meat Institute (NAMI) has charged the federal Dietary Guidelines Advisory Committee with dropping a recommendation to in...
Market Commentary
Futures trading on this last day of the year saw Chicago wheat fall 10-12 cents. Corn futures dropped more than 9 cents – a major move for the corn market...
TPP Signals; Cheers via Trade
The Nikkei reports that Japanese Prime Minister Shinzō Abe would like to visit the United States in late April or early May. It notes that the Obama White...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
An initial estimate of Russia's 2014 grain and leguminous crop harvest indicates that it should surpass the 2013 total. Meanwhile, implementation of the ne...
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
Egypt's Chamber of Tourism reports that a side effect of the Russian situation is a 30 percent decline in hotel bookings. The decrease will have a serious...
Europe; Russia; Lobbyists; Food Safety
The Financial Times (FT) has frequently ranted against the austerity measures imposed on other EU members by Germany, but also voices skepticism about the...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
The Russian Wheat Outlook
The questions now to be answered are how much wheat will Russia export by the end of January and how much of the world's 2014/15 wheat demand, which it pot...
Oilseed Highlights
The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service has announced it will conduct a one-year review of the monarch butterfly to determine whether it warrants protection und...
Meat: End-of-Year Cold Storage and 2015 Trends
USDA released its cold storage report yesterday afternoon with a few surprises for the trade, while today's Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report indicates that p...
Market Commentary
Having dropped more than 50 cents from recent highs, the wheat market is sending bearish technical momentum signals that seem likely to continue. The corn...
China In-Country Analysis
Following its previous efforts to limit corn imports and unwind the large surplus of domestic stocks, China's National Reform and Development Commission (N...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
2015: Policy Debates Ahead
The farm bill debate in 2014 focused more on efforts to cut food assistance to the poor than on program benefits to farmers. That will change in the future...
California Egg Restrictions Go into Effect in 2015
California's infamous egg-layer referendum of 2008 comes home to roost on New Year's Day as all eggs sold in the state must comply with the associated regu...
Another Volatile Year
The bearish news was all on the supply side. 2014 was a year of record world crop production, which couldn't have come at a better time with world supplies...
Market Commentary
Markets were mixed in the overnight session with corn steady, while wheat and soybeans were higher. Volume was again light overnight but picked up consider...
NEI Deadline; India’s Games
The National Export Initiative (NEI) launched by President Obama in his 2010 State of the Union address failed to double American exports (up around half t...
USDA Implementing Crop Insurance Yield Exclusion
According to USDA, nearly 80 percent of all acres and liability that are covered in the federal crop insurance program will be eligible for YE beginning in...
More Things to Keep You Up at Night
Recent warm weather across the Northern Hemisphere has left zero snow cover across nearly all of the winter wheat production regions of the U.S. and Black...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
The long-standing demand from the Solvent Extractors Association (SEA) of India to boost the duty for crude and refined edible oils was met by the governme...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
The impact of Russia's significant tariff on wheat exports that was announced is yet to be determined. Markets opened steady to higher with soybeans up 3-5...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
A large part of Chinese soybean needs for February will be covered by U.S. origin, which will reduce the demand for Brazilian stocks. That is not good as a...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
The Russian grain market was influenced by several very serious factors during the week in review. These included the sharp ruble devaluation, a suspension...
Market Commentary
The volume of overnight trade appeared to be quite low as one might expect just before a major holiday. Markets were mixed overnight with wheat and soybean...
India; AGOA
In its latest report on India's trade policy, the ITC notes that the number of U.S. companies adversely affected by restrictive Indian measures has jumped...
India; AGOA
In its latest report on India's trade policy plan, the ITC notes that the number of U.S. companies adversely affected by restrictive Indian measures has ju...
U.S. and Mexico Cut Deal on Sugar Case
Once the agreements are signed, the Commerce Dept. will suspend the existing AD and CVD cases against Mexican sugar without issuing final determinations on...
CFTC Rulemaking; Monopsonists, Bureaucratize
For years, the leadership of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) complained that it could not do its job due to inadequate budget resource...
Oilseed Highlights
Reports out of Europe indicate the EU's ban on the use of neonicotinoid insecticides is likely to result in a substantial decrease in its 2015 rapeseed pro...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
A Look Backward at 2014
2014 will surely go down as one of the most memorable years in U.S. crop production history. Planted corn acreage in 2014 fell almost 5 percent below the p...
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
Turkey is now the world's largest exporter of wheat flour, shipping as much as 2 MMT per year. Although quite a bit of that flour goes to Asia, its two mai...
Market Commentary
Overnight and again during the day session, grain and soy futures traded both sides in light holiday-type volume. The corn market was the most placid with...
Market Commentary
Corn had another day of light volume and not much actual price movement. It sat back and watched as wheat traded double-digit gains and then backed off to...
Sugarplums; Turkey
Anti-Big Ag campaigners are quick to blame food and the industry for obesity, but there are two fundamental sides to the equation: calories in and calories...
China and Sorghum, Etc.
What analysts have missed, or at least ignored, is that China replaced U.S. corn imports with U.S. sorghum over the past 12 months on an almost one-for-one...
China In-Country Analysis
It is clear that China's new administration continues to consider the nation's agricultural development and reform to be its top priority as adjustments in...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Obama Cuba Initiative to Face Congressional Hurdles
If this initiative is to move forward in any form from diplomatic relations to some sort of trade expansion over the next two years (the duration of the re...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
Markets were weak overnight with wheat leading the way down after yesterday's technically poor closes. Corn again had a very docile trading day, considerin...
New Senate Ag Committee
In the 113th Congress, the Democratic majority enjoyed a two-seat advantage on this committee with 11 spots to the minority's nine. That ratio will switch...
JCCT Delivers; Stories of 2014 and 2015
The outcome of this week's U.S.–China Meeting of the Joint Commission on Commerce and Trade (JCCT) is even better than hoped. USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack's...
An Early Peak at USDA Baseline
It's important to remember that the numbers released yesterday are really just snippets from the baseline projections that will be released in full in Febr...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
While India is committed to a continued investment in basic science and adherece to stated government policy, it seems that the NGOs are undermining the re...
Canadians Using Hot Rhetoric over COOL
As the Canadian Cattlemen Association has indicated, any retaliatory tariffs will be targeted toward products from states where legislators and lawmakers h...
The Cuban Détente
Since the embargo and economic isolation have failed, it seems like a good time to try economic engagement instead, especially given that there will be som...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Hijinks; Misfueled; Green; Hope
India proudly announced its launch of the 630-ton geosynchronous satellite launch vehicle known as the MKIII. However, the government could better have use...
Oilseed Highlights
Because the U.S. has an overwhelming share of the soybean, soymeal and soyoil imports by other countries in the Caribbean, Central America and Mexico, ther...
Market Commentary
It was a day of consolidation for a number of commodity markets, some of which took place after wild price swings. The wheat market added more risk premium...
Lies; Speculation; Substitution; Cuba
CFTC Chairman Timothy Massad made the bold claim at a Senate hearing this week that his agency would develop "bright-line rules" in its pending position li...
List of 40 RFS Reform Ideas Released
The Bipartisan Policy Center (BPC) staff constructed the options into a list, noting that the effort was directed at providing reform and not repeal...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
During this week, Brazil finally started to weaken the real (Brazilian currency). The market had expected this move after the elections, and farmers were i...
Market Commentary
Led by KC HRW, U.S. wheat futures prices charged higher on word that Russia was attempting to restrict grain exports by denying quality certification on ex...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
It was reported on 15 December that Russian grain exporters have suspended the signing of any new grain export contracts due to the recent RUB rate fluctua...
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
Morocco's grain imports for the June-October period are up by 80 percent against last year at a total 2.2 MMT including 750,000 MT of wheat and 1.1 M...
Currencies and Other Stuff
The steady growth of the U.S. economy has caused the U.S. dollar to appreciate against the currencies of other nations such as Russia, Ukraine, Brazil, Arg...
Market Commentary
The corn market tried to follow wheat's early strength but could not generate enough serious buying interest to make a go of it. Soybeans were weak all day...
Oilseed Highlights
France's Agriculture Minister Stephane Le Foll today announced the government there plans to spend about 150 million euros per year between now and 2020 to...
Organic Shakedown; RFS Reform; Hostile
Both ethanol supporters and its oil industry opponents panned a set of reforms to the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) proposed by the Bipartisan Policy Cente...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Latest 2015 Crop Budget Worksheets
The projected 2015 net returns per acre, even though still negative for spring wheat and corn and barely positive for soybeans, are far better than they we...
Market Commentary
Corn traded higher most of the session on more confusion over whether China has or soon will announce the approval of the MIR162 hybrid. Meanwhile, none of...
China In-Country Analysis
The falling soybean stocks in China's ports and the delayed arrivals have allowed crushers to firm up their soymeal prices. However, producers' oil and mea...
Funding Bill: Final Ag Numbers and News
The agricultural provision of the appropriations language provides $20.6 billion in discretionary funding – $305 million below the FY 2014 enacted level. I...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Approximately 15 percent of Bulgaria's intended wheat acreage could not be planted due to excessive rains, and the 2015 crop will be 4 MMT at best (v...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
Markets were very active overnight in very good trading volume for the night session. Prices turned decidedly higher when Europe came to work, reportedly o...
Markets Don’t Feel Like the Holidays
Nearly every market analysis or presentation seems to start with the assessment that the "world is awash" in grains and oilseeds. It is now mid-December, a...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
The Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs (CCEA) has approved a higher procurement price of molasses-based ethanol in the range of $2.94-3.00/gallon for th...
New Republican House Ag Committee Members
Incoming House Agriculture Committee Chairman Michael Conaway (R-TX) has reorganized a number of subcommittees to better suit his announced priorities...
Federal Government to Stay Open
The funding bill included a directive for USDA and the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) to report recommendations to Congress no later than 1 May 2015 that...
Oilseed Highlights
China's Ministry of Commerce is currently indicating the country's December soybean imports will be about 6.8 MMT, but that number is far below the likely...
Market Commentary
After a few days of hesitation, technically-trading funds returned to the grain and soy markets today. They were most active in the corn market where they...
Compromise and Trade
In essence, the U.S. government has just successfully made a $1.1 trillion, 1,603-page piece of sausage nicknamed the "CRomnibus." Those hoping for accompl...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Futures Position Limits Redux
Clearly, the CFTC is having difficulty fitting commercial hedging practices and the long-standing hedging exemption for grain markets into its proposed new...
Atlantic versus Pacific
German Minister of Agriculture Christian Schmidt cautioned a Washington audience that his countrymen lack confidence in American production practices such...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
649,400 MT of grain were exported from Ukrainian sea ports between 1-7 December, while 429,100 MT were exported from Russian sea ports during the same peri...
Market Commentary
Any bullish impact from USDA's higher 2014/15 soybean export estimate and lower soybean carryout was swept away by Conab's forecast that Brazil's soybean c...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentina's new crop wheat is currently being harvested. Although it is the least expensive and best alternative for Brazilian millers, they have decided t...
Immigration; Derivatives; IT
While most migrant labor was previously focused in the specialty crops area, the whole agricultural sector has become more broadly dependent on workers tha...
Oilseed Highlights
Brazil recently imposed a 7 percent blending mandate for combining biodiesel with petroleum diesel. The higher production would increase the use of soyoil...
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
Reports from Turkey indicate that the government is now strictly enforcing GMO import rules, which have resulted in the rejection of several vessels of U.S...
Crude Oil Exports
Although oil state lawmakers of both parties support the lifting of the crude oil export ban, the rank-and-file non-energy state Republicans are more cauti...
Market Commentary
After trading slightly lower overnight, corn and soybean prices both encountered enough buying about midway through the day session to carry them to gains...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Anticipating the December WASDE
Without fresh production estimates for U.S. corn and soybeans, the December WASDE only offers some adjustments to those estimates for elsewhere around the...
China In-Country Analysis
China rolled out several agriculture reform policies regarding land use, seed development and agriculture insurance over the past two weeks as the country'...
Ag Review: Transportation Outlook 2014
Limits on Agriculture and Transport The upcoming U.S. election is occurring amidst geopolitical upheaval and macroeconomic malaise, but there is a pan-Paci...
Trade Week; Sugar Inequality
Washington has been captured by several special interests through the years but perhaps none as successfully against the odds as sugar producers. Trade Non...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Notes from the IAOM
No one was outright bullish about wheat. The consensus was cautionary heading into 2015 because of the potential production problems that "might" occur.I w...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
The feed wheat price rally (approximately $30 in one month) is motivating consumers in the EU and the major Mediterranean destinations to increase their co...
Quick Look at the FY 2015 Federal Budget So Far
According to the CBO's monthly budget review for November 2014, the federal budget deficit was $181 billion for the first two months of the new fiscal year...
Market Commentary
March corn spent the day drifting lower from the daily high of $3.9975/bushel to close about 10 cents lower. However, it is premature to interpret this pri...
Friends; Surprise; Okay
While Chinese government officials announced an effort to reduce fertilizer and pesticide use by 2020 in an attempt to decrease pollution, the U.S. EPA was...
Market Commentary
Today's price action in March corn looks strong. That contract seems to be in the process of rejecting recent market discussion about the formation of a he...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Wheat – Part II
How great have world wheat crops been? Russia, Ukraine, China, India and Canada have all had record yields in at least two of the last three years. However...
Oil Prices Changing Incentives
The news is full of stories about falling oil prices. While energy is a key component of the economy, high and low prices simply switch economic incentives...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
India's annual edible oil demand stands at 18-19 MMT with an annual growth rate of approximately 4 percent. Last year's imports totaled 11.3 MMT, but that...
Immigration Clampdown in Canada Impacting Pork Exports
Changes made to Canada's temporary foreign worker plan in June are having a negative impact on the meat packing industry and export expansion. This is due...
Argentina Uses Banks to Squeeze Farmers
The Argentine government is now financially pressuring farmers in its ongoing attempt to force them to sell the soybeans they are holding as a hedge agains...
Market Commentary
Triggered by unexpectedly large export sales and helped along by fund buying, corn futures closed up more than 7 cents and near session highs. Soybea...
Politics, Supply and Demand
Whenever crop prices fall uncomfortably low, there are always those who argue that the U.S. government should return to some sort of supply management prog...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Oilseed Highlights
Today's USDA export sales report indicated U.S. exporters last week sold substantially more soybeans and soymeal than analysts surveyed by Reuters predicte...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Rosselkhoznadzor, the Russian Federal Service for Veterinary and Phytosanitary Surveillance, wants to decrease the volume of grain exports by tighten...
Not Ready; Not Ready; Ready
The Obama administration is sending clear signals that it wants TPA and tax overhaul legislation. However, the first step is House passage today of tax ext...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy prices continued to languish in the red during much of the day session. January soybeans were down 12 cents at one point and well below techn...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Brazilian soybeans presently look more attractive than the U.S. competition, but are hampered by concerns about dependability of shipments. However, waitin...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
According to Egypt's Agricultural Research Center (ARC), approximately 14 percent of the country's wheat production is lost annually. It also said that Egy...
Oilseed Highlights
The new Indonesian government has made achieving self-sufficiency in the production of soybeans, sugar, rice, corn and meat a greater priority than its pre...
Looking for the Next Bull Market
With the fall harvests essentially completed and something of a hiatus in fresh inputs from USDA until 12 January when it releases final production estimat...
Climate Change and Agriculture: Part Deux
Back in 2008, climate change was a hot topic for U.S. agriculture with both presidential candidates having proactive plans to address greenhouse gases and...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading in grains and the soy complex was slower and lower with modest losses across the board. There was more chatter about the potential for so...
Economics and Policy Redux
Agricultural commodity prices are low once again, sparking the return of the supply management advocates. Supply Management Redux Agricultural commodity p...
Market Commentary
There was little buying at today's opening in corn and soybeans, and they were both down 5-7 cents by mid-morning. Wheat, however, was strong overnight and...
China In-Country Analysis
China's domestic soybean crushers' margins did improve from mid-September through mid-November due to the idling of plants and a temporary supply shortage...
Putin Oil; Interstellar Corn; Cotton Hypocrisy
OPEC keeps drilling and America keeps fracking despite crude oil trading under $70/barrel. This may not be the result of collusion between Washington and R...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Wheat Takes Over
Early 2015 world wheat production estimates had been hovering near the record levels of the previous two years. Now a number of recent issues have pushed w...
Late Year Politics Driving Policy
Congress is back in a lame-duck session to hash out a few issues, most of which have been overshadowed by politics. These include tax exenders, appropriati...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
The dry and cold weather in southern Russia is a serious concern for next year's wheat crop. Local analysts are estimating that it could decline 10-15 MMT...
Sorghum Export Sales Soar
Changes in U.S. market share for global soyoil exports, along with those of soymeal, are analyzed. Results offer insight into the opportunities U.S. export...
FDA Releases Menu Labeling Rule
Restaurants were originally opposed to it, but with a spate of state and local laws creating a regulatory patchwork, many national chains came around to su...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
India's corn production has declined for many reasons including erratic rains, late sowing in some cases and also the switch to soybeans by some farm...
Oilseed Highlights
Today's weekly USDA export sales report once again indicated there was a net decline in U.S. soymeal export sales last week of 22,300 MT. Meanwhile, last w...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Cyber Threats to TTIP; Extenders; Mercosur
U.S. agriculture can no longer claim to be singled out for abuse by Europe's anti-technology policy; Brussels now views major American information technolo...
Market Commentary
OPEC's announcement that it will not reduce production sent prices crashing lower, while U.S. financial markets were strong and again reached new highs. Ag...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Mea Culpa
Experience breeds skepticism when it comes to trade policy matters, but that resulted in our erroneous underestimation of U.S. Trade Representative Michael...
Market Commentary
The wildest action on the board today was in soymeal spreads. Meanwhile, corn was lightly traded, and prices dawdled around in a 5-cent price range before...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
The South American soybean market was quiet this past week. Demand from China is presumed to be slow because crush margins there are not very good. Then ag...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Ukraine harvested 62.298 MMT of grains and leguminous crops as of 24 November. That compares with 59.996 MMT as of the same date in 2013. Meanwhile, 82 per...
The Impact of the Strong U.S. Dollar
Potentially, the more immediate impact of the value of the U.S. dollar against the currencies of other exporting countries is on the planting decisions of...
Market Commentary
It has been a turnaround Tuesday with bells on. Grain and soy markets recovered yesterday's loss and more in many cases with the soy complex leading the wa...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
Iran's Governmental Trading Corporation (GTC) estimates 2014/15 wheat imports at a total 7 MMT, approximately 64 percent of the 11 MMT that the country con...
Stocking; Salty and Sweet
India claims to need a food security reserve for hungry citizens, but it exports five times more food to the U.S. than it imports from America. Stocktaking...
Tax Extender Package
Legislators are already moving to permanently extend some provisions that have consensus support as good tax policy, and this sets up a longer-term debate...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
French wheat exports (to non-EU destinations) are expected to decline by 30 percent versus last year because of quality problems. Consequently, France's en...
Banks and Commodities: How the Coming Fed Rule Evolved
Prior to 1999 banking law reforms, bank holding companies were permitted to engage as principals on cash-settled derivative contracts as well as derivative...
Railroads Again Get Poor Marks
The survey referenced was conducted by the Soy Transportation Coalition, which includes members from 12 states and two national groups. The coalition lobbi...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Regulations; Free From
President Obama says he will be using executive branch powers when Congress fails to act, and the regulatory agenda his administration released last week i...
China In-Country Analysis
While China starts to reduce the role of government purchasing in the corn market, it is also beginning to shift its corn importing policy by possibly adju...
Market Commentary
Wheat actually traded higher much of today's session on news that Saudi Arabia did buy 345,000 MT of optional origin hard wheat. However, it couldn't withs...
Market Commentary
U.S. financial markets traded to new highs today, but did back off those peaks by mid-morning. This has been the biggest five-day rally since 2009. Like co...
RFS; COOL; Geopolitics; Exemptions
USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack this week complained that he could not change the Country of Origin Labeling (COOL) regulation so that it concurrently reflects...
Problems with Montana Wheat (and Other Insights)
There are apparently some significant quality issues surfacing in the Montana spring wheat and winter wheat crops that will in effect reduce the milling qu...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
For the past few years, Indian farmers producing coarse cereals (corn, pearl millet, sorghum) increased their crops as prices grew much higher than the MSP...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Oilseed Highlights
U.S. exports of soybeans and soymeal in containers to Asian markets via West Coast ports stand to be negatively impacted by surcharges imposed by container...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
A Divergent Outlook for Exports
One of the most interesting aspects of 2014/15, aside from the new U.S. production records for corn and soybeans, is the divergent export prospects among t...
Market Commentary
The overnight session provided mixed results with corn and soybeans slightly higher, while wheat dragged a little lower. However, the day session proved mo...
Protein Inflation
Note that while next year's forecast regarding increases in protein pricing returns to normal 20-year trends for consumer inflation, it will be from a much...
Banks; the Vatican; Africa
Today was apparently the 25th anniversary of Africa Industrialization Day, but the Brookings Institute's John Page notes that while Asia advanced its own i...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Today the Argentine government finally assigned the wheat export quota among the main trading houses as its conflict continues with farmers regarding polic...
TPA Odds; Immigration Ag
At least two top Washington political analysts in the past two days have acknowledged that Trade Promotion Authority (TPA) is as likely as any legislation...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russia harvested 109.9 MMT of grain in bunker weight as of 18 November. Included were 62.2 MMT of wheat (2.61 MT/hectare), 21.2 MMT of barley (2.35 MT/hect...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
The day session saw a more decisive downdraft for grain and soy prices. Support from the cash meal market seems to be in rapid decline. Without that suppor...
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
According to the FAO, Egypt's 2014/15 grain imports will drop by about 1 MMT against last year, but the total is still approximately 1 MMT greater than the...
Market Commentary
The overnight session saw grain and soy prices mixed and the trading volume notably less than Sunday's overnight session. However, there was no doubt about...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Oilseed Highlights
One of the countries often overlooked as a market for soybeans is Turkey. However, it is one of the world's fastest-growing markets for soy as it expands i...
The Soymeal Crunch of 2014
U.S. soybean processors crushed an estimated 150 million bushels during October, a record for the month. However, the limited availability of railroad equi...
Senate to Vote on Keystone XL Pipeline
The new Republican-controlled Senate in the upcoming 114th Congress was expected to pass the legislation approving the permit. However, the current lame-du...
Help Unlikely; Likely Helped
Intervention by President Obama seems highly unlikely, but 61 agricultural groups have nonetheless written to him asking that he intercede in the protracte...
Market Commentary
Last Friday's collapse in soybeans and soymeal wasn't enough to discourage the bulls who bought early Sunday evening and again the last half of today's ses...
More Things to Keep You Up at Night
Shuttle rail freight costs in the aftermarket have totally collapsed in the last few weeks. Shuttle trains were trading at a $4,000-5,000 per car premium j...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
International Economic Roundup
There have been a number of economic developments in countries across the globe that along with other factors are impacting the value of the U.S. dollar.Th...
Positives and Negatives
The announcement by Japanese Prime Minister Shinzö Abe that he intends to postpone the next 20 percent installment in the consumption tax and call for snap...
China In-Country Analysis
China is seeking to increase corn imports from Europe with 36,700 MT arriving last week from Bulgaria, the first bulk shipment of non-GM corn since t...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
The adverse weather in Bulgaria, Romania and Serbia is delaying the corn harvest with about 30 percent left to be completed. Additionally, the domestic log...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Corn arrivals have started in Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Telangana and Maharashtra, but the prices farmers are receiving are not in accordance with the gov...
Congress Organizes
Yesterday the Republican and Democratic caucuses held their leadership votes for the upcoming 114th Congress, and the next step is to select chairmen and r...
Backwards Europe; Big Data
Environmentalists are hailing policy moves to rid Europe of the scourge of biotechnology, but now some member states have upset them by seeking expedited a...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
It has been another tumultuous week in the soy complex with new highs for this recent rally established on significant fund buying. However, when all was s...
The Corn Loan Now in Play
Cash corn prices to the farmer today are generally between $3.00-3.50/bushel. There are a few reasons why farmers will be reluctant to part with more corn...
Frustration, Impatience and Delusions
Commercials and non-commercials trading any commodity futures market are united by an interest in the direction of price movements in both the short and lo...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Oilseed Highlights
Dow AgroSciences has decided to not release its Enlist soybeans for commercial production in order to prevent the soybeans from getting mixed in cargoes de...
Market Commentary
Today was another active trading day, and there seems to be a growing consensus among market participants that current price levels could last in the soy c...
Russia Upping Pork Broiler Bans
The Russian Federal Veterinary and Phyto-Sanitary Oversight Service (Rosselkhoznadzor) is planning to ban the importation of Canadian pork effective tomorr...
India; Extortion; Unorthodox
Europe and Japan are in a funk and lamenting that orthodox macroeconomic measures have failed to provide the stimulus needed to spur growth. Now it is bein...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Monday's neutral WASDE report generally surprised South American traders. Most trading houses held short positions at the CBOT, but the unexpected strength...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
The Ukrainian sea ports shipped 25.946 MMT of grain cargos during January-October 2013, 43.7 percent more than during the same period in 2013. 666,500 MT o...
Market Commentary
That prices across the board swung in such wide ranges today is a clear sign of excitement and emotion as is today's huge volume that may have come close t...
Slew of Fallacies; Twists and Erroneous Intuitions
Artificially suppressing a country's currency exchange rate in order to boost exports and local employment has been the game of mercantilists for many year...
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
Turkey's poultry industry is benefiting greatly from the Russian ban on EU imports with a jump in its poultry meat exports from approximately 50 MT per mon...
Now Demand is the Question
With the fall harvest in its closing stages and production and total volumes of available corn and soybean supplies closely established, the market's atten...
Southern States a Substantial Contributor to Record U.S. Soybean Crop
One factor that has not received a great deal of attention is how much Southern states have contributed to the increase in U.S. soybean production in recen...
USDA Opens Comment Period on Second Beef Checkoff
This new checkoff would be authorized by the Commodity Promotion, Research, and Consumer Information Act of 1996, also known as the Generic Act, and the co...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy futures trade was subdued overnight with limited price action. After trading on both sides, corn and soybeans finished the overnight session...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
Markets were quiet in the Sunday night session with small losses in corn and wheat and small gains in soybeans. That trend continued when today's session o...
Absence and Awkwardness; Next Farm Bill
India is not a member of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) group of 21 economies, and consequently its version of events surrounding the Bali Ag...
China In-Country Analysis
China's domestic soybean crush rate is estimated to have fallen below 45 percent during the week of 3 November due to the limited volume of soybean shipmen...
What Will Be the Agenda of the 114th Congress?
Perhaps the marquee issue for the new Republican majority will be the repeal or majorly reform of the Affordable Care Act, aka Obamacare. There will also b...
USDA November Reports Neutral to Supportive
Today's November USDA crop production estimates and supply and demand revisions were not as bearish as many analysts were expecting. USDA made no adjustmen...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
More on U.S. Soybean Exports
U.S. soybean sales are up more than 1 MMT from last year at this time. More importantly, while the market continues to expect China to slow total purchases...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
Soybean futures traded both sides of unchanged until the last hour or so of the session when they turned decidedly higher. Meanwhile, corn was weak overnig...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Russia has expanded its economic footprints in India, an old ally, after the imposition of sanctions by the U.S. and its Western allies. The importation of...
Lame Duck Session Next Week
The obvious "must-do" action item is the continuing resolution (CR) to fund the government as the appropriations bill that Congress cobbled together last y...
Endangered; No Proof Needed; TPP Progress
Farmers in the U.S. live in fear that a threatened or endangered species will be found on their property and adversely affect their operations. Now a feder...
Ag Review: The Harvest Issue
Bleak Harvest Ahead The world grain market may be headed into a bear trend due to burgeoning supplies, but a review of the policy seeds that have been sown...
Broiler/Pork Expansion Impact on Beef
While cattle supplies remain tight, broilers are continuing to expand in both numbers and in heavier weights. Pork production is also expected to increase...
Market Commentary
Soybean futures bounced around on both sides of yesterday's closes in nearly a 30-cent trading range before settling about 7-9 cents higher. Corn futures p...
More Politics; Exports; Regulations
Just hours after a major U.S. election outcome, sparks are flying over future U.S. policy direction with House Republicans warning President Obama not to t...
Oilseed Highlights
As expected, today's USDA export sales report showed a net reduction in U.S. soymeal export sales as a result of cancellations and switches to other origin...
Just a Few Odd Thoughts
With the November WASDE ahead and the midterm election behind us, we have had a few oddball and mostly unconnected thoughts that we will pass on for whatev...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
The lack of U.S. dollars is a serious issue for the Argentine government. As a result, it has released 500,000 MT of old crop corn and 400,000 MT of old cr...
Election Recap
Yesterday's midterm congressional election that resulted in Republican control of both the House and Senate also has implications for both chambers' agricu...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Due to rising concern among buyers, limited offer from sellers and rumors about the poor condition of winter crops, prices on the Russian domestic market i...
Market Commentary
After being weaker overnight and in the first half of the day session, corn and soy futures bounced off session lows to close higher despite the U.S. dolla...
Biotech Labeling; Bearish Markets; Trade Agreements
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) has unleashed its latest effort to spark inflation and thus economic growth, while negotiating partners in the Trans-Pacific Partne...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
Egypt's plans to become a central grain hub for North Africa and the Middle East have apparently been accelerated with the government indicating that all p...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy prices opened the overnight session weaker, which carried over into the day session. Traders are concerned about what might happen if the H7N...
Gasoline Prices to Continue Decline
Brent prices are now the lowest they have been since late 2010, before violence in Libya and other areas in the Middle East and North Africa disrupted sign...
PredictIt; Oxymorons and Cowards; Actually Okay
The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) gave approval to a new prediction market, but revealed its bias toward politics, non-profits and unive...
Oilseed Highlights
DuPont Pioneer India last week opened a crop research center in Hyderabad, India to develop new crop varieties for that country's agricultural sector. The...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
The Guessing Game Again
When there have been month-over-month increases in yield and production estimates through October, history suggests that the odds strongly favor a further...
Market Commentary
Wheat withstood the weakness in soybeans and corn today and actually traded steady to slightly higher much of the session. The relative strength was likely...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
The Black Sea corn market was firmer last week, although not precisely following the CBOT futures rally. Ukrainian corn is offered at $177/MT FOB for Novem...
Asynchronous; Just Because
Recognizing that the jump from conventional agriculture to "pure" organic is a large one, the EU has allowed numerous derogations from the original concept...
How About That Soybean Demand
The domestic soymeal demand has been blamed for the recent strong rally in soybeans and soymeal futures. That has certainly been part of the driving force,...
China In-Country Analysis
China's domestic crushers and traders seem to be welcoming the potential soybean shortage for the next month in order to reverse the profitability issues e...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Ballot Initiatives of Interest to Agriculture
Tuesday is Election Day, and a number of down ballot issues of interest to agriculture will be voted on tomorrow including four related to GMOs. Tomorrow...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
MSP Raised for Key CropsIn a bid to incentivize farmers, the government of India (GOI) has announced an increase in the Minimum Support Price (MSP) for sev...
More Things to Keep You Up at Night
The U.S. rail shuttle freight market, at least the BNSF, seems to be softening. If the weakness in shuttle rates stays, it should mean that interior basis...
Big Data; COOL; Survey
Producer groups want the Obama administration to simply appeal the WTO Dispute Settlement Panel's (DSP) decision that the U.S. country-of-origin labeling (...
Market Commentary
The volatility in the soybean and soymeal markets continued last night and today. Corn did manage to rally to slight gains when the soy complex was surging...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
In a bid to incentivize farmers, the government of India (GOI) has announced an increase in the Minimum Support Price (MSP) for several of the 2014/15 wint...
How Does the Value of the U.S. Dollar Impact the U.S. Economy?
The U.S. dollar has been on a bull ride of late, especially against the currency of some of our most important trading partners.The U.S. dollar has been on...
Tricks and Treats
In a strange way, the approach of Halloween turns our attention to the current state of grain and soy markets here in the U.S. Twisting the spirit of "Tric...
Market Commentary
The overnight session saw grain and soy prices trade modestly higher in relatively slow action. However, after three days of higher closes, the markets pau...
Silly; USTR Falters; Just Checking
The EU has not approved a new biotech trait all year, and it was hoped that the outgoing Commission membership would at least move forward on two cottonsee...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Oilseed Highlights
Today's USDA Export Sales Report indicated U.S. exporters once again had a big week selling soybeans with a total 1.326 MMT. That was down by 39 percent fr...
Cattle on Feed
The dynamics between fed cattle marketings and placements are analyzed with their implications for next quarters' beef demand and pricing. Feedlot turnover...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Ukraine has exported 11.237 MMT of grain as of 27 October 2014 and from the beginning of MY 2014/15. Included were 6.27 MMT of wheat, 1.624 MMT of corn, 3...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
A meeting was held Monday between Argentine exporters and government officials. Exporters were expecting the release of 4 MMT of corn and 2 MMT of wheat fo...
Market Commentary
Corn and wheat were pulled along by the soy complex, although corn could build its own demand story from last week's ethanol production that averaged 937,0...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Sugar Impact; Biotech; Balkanization
The state-by-state biotech labeling campaigns by technology opponents undermine the federal preemption on food marketing, and now the same is happening to...
U.S. and Mexico Reach Deal on Sugar Case
The U.S. Department of Commerce yesterday announced that it had reached preliminary terms with Mexico and its sugar exporters. If these are finalized, it w...
Oilseed Highlights
Yesterday's USDA reports showed much progress was made last week in harvesting the U.S. soybean crop. Illinois, Missouri, Indiana, Ohio, Kentucky and Kansa...
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
Iran's government announced that it will be working with the FAO to improve domestic wheat and barley production. While some say that the country is approa...
Fun with Export Sales Numbers
U.S. corn exports deviation from historic patterns has implications for what exports will be in the rest of the marketing year. Analysis of unshipped corn...
Market Commentary
Overnight strength carried over into the day session amid active volume. December corn continued to march ahead, while it was another volatile session for...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Ukrainian corn remains the least expensive origin for Asian buyers. However, the competitive advantage versus South American and U.S. PNW corn is only $2-5...
Market Commentary
Markets were soft overnight with corn and wheat 2-4 cents lower and soybeans down as much as 8-9 cents when the night session closed. That weakness evapora...
China In-Country Analysis
China's feed price remains low as a result of the declining domestic corn price and flat soymeal price, which boosts the livestock industry's profitability...
Brazil and Uruguay Elections
Brazil saw President Dilma Rousseff win a narrow victory over challenger Senator Aecio Neves, while Uruguay is headed to a runoff on 30 November in an elec...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Argentina is Still a Mess
There is some question regarding whether as many total acres of all crops in Argentina will be planted as expected with the low prices, high input costs an...
World Roundup
USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack will help host December's U.S.-China Joint Commission on Commerce and Trade in Chicago. This will be an excellent opportunity fo...
Enviro Snippets; Marketing; Sunday
Agriculture contributes 10 percent of Europe's carbon emissions, and a Commission study indicates that the farming sector could meet a 28 percent reduction...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
Yesterday's weekly soybean export sales number of nearly 2 MMT was the last straw that took futures briefly back above $10.00. Wheat futures seemed to sit...
Policy Potpourri
The EPA's approval this summer of two new pathways for generating cellulosic ethanol led directly to the August explosion in cellulosic production an...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
It is still too early to estimate India's sugar production because many mills have yet to begin crushing operations in Uttar Pradesh as there is a stalemat...
The Soybean Outlook Stays Bearish into 2015/16
The soybean outlook continues to have a negative picture unless there is a significant production problem in South America this season or a big soybean yie...
Squeeze on Hamburger
The current small herd means pressures on producers for herd expansion, which means less culling and a lower cow slaughter. This has the potential to...
Index Funds Are Still Here
The last two or three years have been tough on commodity index funds. Most have lost money. However, rightly or wrongly, index funds are promoted as long-t...
Oilseed Highlights
Reports out of Brazil indicate a deal still has not been reached between exporting companies and Monsanto regarding the collection of royalties on its inse...
TPP Signs; Never Enough
Over 170 people signed up for a presentation yesterday in Washington on the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) negotiations. As presenter Gary Horlick observe...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy markets were mixed overnight amid lighter volume than has been seen the past several overnight sessions. However, the day session was anythin...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
During the last campaign, Brazil exported 4.4 MMT of soybeans in February 2014 (3.8 MMT to China) versus 960,000 MT in February 2013. The upcoming campaign...
Market Commentary
Most grain and soy contracts held onto gains until the latter stages of the day session when buying interest slackened and hedge selling began to take over...
TPP Timing; Hurdles
The U.S. and Japan have reportedly resumed negotiations on agriculture at this week's Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) meeting in Canberra. However, Tokyo w...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
The forecast for Russia's 2014 grain production has been lowered as a result of unfavorable weather conditions in areas of the country that have impacted t...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Oilseed Highlights
The 2014 crop year was an exceptional one for rapeseed in the EU-28. Total production this year is estimated at 23.93 MMT by Oil World and 23.5 MMT by USDA...
Outlooks; Fooled
U.S. EPA will likely announce its final Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) blend requirement after next month's election. Had the Obama administration wished to...
Markets In Search of Guidance
Global economic uncertainties are likely to continue, and they will influence commodity markets including grain and soy periodically. However, many of the...
Will WTO Ruling “COOL” Ethanol Exports?
Yesterday's WTO ruling regarding the updated implementing rule for the U.S. country-of-origin labeling (COOL) law could have implications for U.S. den...
Market Commentary
It was another "Turnaround Tuesday" for grain and soy futures markets. Prices gained modestly overnight in relatively light volume. The gains were limited...
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
Grain traders in Iran have been quietly buying corn supplies in Black Sea markets with trade estimates that about 120,000 MT have been purchased. Prices ar...
COOL Rule Issued by WTO: U.S. Must Comply
Today's decree essentially found that the implementing rule does provide less favorable treatment for Canadian and Mexican livestock, but stopped short of...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Talking About 2015 Already?
We are seeing a number of analysts telling producers they ought to be selling not just 2015 production, but also some 2016 production. This does seem very...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Wheat exports from Germany, Poland and the Baltic states are higher than a year ago. However, they are significantly slower from France (the biggest EU pro...
Market Commentary
It seemed like we were back to trading big yields and excellent corn and soybean harvest weather today, not fund short covering or rebalancing. U.S. financ...
China In-Country Analysis
Indications are that soybean shipments to China in October have been steadily declining. Part of the reason is a short-term drop in demand due to the seaso...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Advocacy
Ethanol proponents' rebuttal to the California Air Resource Board's (CARB's) proposed indirect land use calculation (ILUC) offers both a sharp tongue about...
Market Commentary
The weekly export sales report released today wasn't enough to hold the market together as selling pressure started to mount in the soy complex, and there...
Those Pesky Funds Keep Buying Soybeans
This week saw aggressive fund buying in the absence of any significant hedge selling, and prices went up instead of down. The strength during harvest likel...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
While India's poultry industry is against any trade of U.S. poultry meat, the general view is that such imports will be of low volume and not harmful to th...
Drones in Agriculture
Although farmers are currently unable to fly over crop fields or pastureland to capture pictures or video of anything that would be sold commercially, ther...
Red Line for India; U.S.-China FTA
A few days ago, Indian officials dropped the hint that they were in negotiations in Geneva for a permanent "due restraint" agreement, allowing them to oper...
Farm Bill Fun and Games
Whenever it becomes time for Congress to create a new farm bill (technically, to amend the 1938 and 1949 legislation), we are amazed by the number of diver...
Market Commentary
Outside markets displayed a relatively calmer tone today. Grain and soy futures traded rather quietly, and prices were mixed during the overnight session w...
Oilseed Highlights
NOPA's monthly soybean crush report, which was released yesterday, indicated soyoil stocks at the end of September totaled 936.88 million pounds (424,965 M...
Two Beef Checkoffs?
USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack has declared that he will initiate a new beef checkoff that will operate side-by-side with the current version. Checkoff revenue...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Sugar; Dead; Abe’s Call; Foreigners
Mexican Economy Secretary Ildefonso Guajardo is threatening to challenge the U.S. sugar program in the WTO, but the American sugar industry is likely...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
In Paraguay almost 70 percent of the wheat crop is already harvested with very good quality. This is a little surprising because there were some excessive...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Market experts indicate that 26 percent of the total 2014 Ukrainian wheat harvest is of milling quality. In addition, approximately 36 percent of the milli...
Market Commentary
The November soybean price swung between 14 cents higher and 14 cents lower before closing down 12.25 cents at $9.525. Non-commercials have been shrinking...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Sino-Russia; U.S. Dollar; Chicken
China may in some ways favor Russia, but it has been ambivalent about the situation in Crimea. More importantly, it will buy Russian energy and opportunist...
Market Commentary
Wheat futures prices closed 4-6 cents higher due almost entirely to the influence of the other markets. Last week's mediocre inspections show that wheat ex...
Oilseed Highlights
Now that we have entered MY 2014/15, it is worthwhile to once again realize just how dominant China is as the main driver of global demand for soybeans and...
Group Urges President Obama to Address Biotech And Trade with China
In its letter to President Obama, the U.S. Biotech Crop Alliance cited serious challenges to trade because of an unpredictable framework for approvals of n...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Corn’s Updated Outlook
It is widely assumed that the November WASDE estimates for corn yield and production will likely be larger than October's. This assumption will grow strong...
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
Egypt is considering a free trade zone with Russia, Kazakhstan and Belarus, also known as the Eurasian Economic Union. This would allow for increased expor...
Market Commentary
Corn started to move reluctantly higher with the rally in soybeans, but advanced up sharply at mid-morning. There was little news around to excite the whea...
China In-Country Analysis
China's Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) recently released the revised Measures for Overseas Investment Management, intended to encourage more Chinese compani...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
The EU wheat (French, German and Baltic, etc.) remains more competitive for most destinations versus Russian and Ukrainian origins. Russia's remaining surp...
Farm Bill Rewrite; TPA Trips TPP
The brand new, only partially-deployed 2014 Farm Bill may have to be rewritten as the outlook for commodity prices is substantially lower than the one used...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
WASDE: Pork to Surpass Beef Production
This most recent estimate is founded on expanding pig production, higher farrowing intentions for the last quarter of 2014 into 2015 and a more rapid forec...
Malting Barley Prices on the Rise
Prices appear set to make a move higher, following a smaller-than-expected crop production coupled with some significant quality problems.Malting barley pr...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Corn prices in India have been moving lower over the past few weeks with no sign that the downslide is likely to stop. An end to this bearish trend will re...
Rio Grande; GSP
Mexico is reportedly demanding completion of a suspension agreement with the U.S. on antidumping and countervailing duty cases involving sugar by the end o...
New Chairman for House Agriculture Committee
Assuming the Republicans maintain their majority in the House, there will be a number of committee gavels to pass. This includes the House Agriculture Comm...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
It was a topsy-turvy day in the markets both before and after the release of USDA's October reports. Volume in corn and soybeans was very large. Wheat volu...
USDA Reports Not as Bearish as Expected
The markets have been anxiously waiting for today's USDA yield and production estimates for corn and soybeans since the September report was released. Near...
Feed Additives Future
With Europe's ban on antibiotic usage for growth promotion in livestock and new voluntary standards in the U.S., the antibiotic share of the feed additive...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
The Looming Struggle for Exports
A sizeable portion of increased global supplies will be in the hands of exporting countries. The U.S., Canada, Brazil, Argentina, the EU, Russia, Australia...
Don’t Plant; Yuan Shock
Bloomberg reports that China plans to globalize its currency by allowing its citizens to invest abroad and permitting Chinese companies to sell yuan-denomi...
Oilseed Highlights
The Argentine government claims that farmers and exporters are holding as much as 21-22 MMT of stocks as a hedge against inflation, which it considers fina...
Market Commentary
Corn futures swung back and forth before winding up with modest gains of less than 2 cents. Wheat prices at all three markets clocked double-digit losses t...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
The stealthy wheat market has staged a technical "adjustment." Chicago wheat futures have mirrored the corn market by closing higher for the last six tradi...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
A question in the Brazilian soybean market has become, "Which will have more pressure to drop – the port premiums or the paper in Paranagua?" Most likely,...
Payoffs; Currency Irresolved
Coming on the heels of an announcement that American taxpayers are subsidizing rich Brazilian cotton growers with over $800 million, it has been revealed t...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Ukraine is reported to have produced a record volume of vegetable oil in MY 2013/14. Its share of the global market has been rising for seven years and rea...
Never Sell a Dull Market
Why have grain and soy markets broken out of their dull mode and rallied so sharply with the October WASDE now only three days away?Grain and soy futures o...
Market Commentary
Today it was wheat's turn to lead the rally, and it did so in style. All three wheat markets spent most of the day session preening with double-digit gains...
Ag Review: The Policy Implications of 2014
Policy for the Rest of 2014 The upcoming U.S. election is occurring amidst geopolitical upheaval and macroeconomic malaise, but there is a pan-Pacific poli...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
Officials in Egypt are stating that wheat imports in 2015 will drop by 50 percent to 4-4.5 MMT. However, most experts there don't expect any serious declin...
Oilseed Highlights
The Argentine government is reportedly considering the establishment of a national grain company to compete with multinational exporting firms. Argen...
Ag Lawsuits
There have been developments in a few major legal issues relating to agriculture that have unfolded in the past several days, and the final resolutions of...
The Mystery Rally
There was no unexpected export business around or any adverse weather forecast that could have been the cause. This would seem to be a good old-fashioned s...
Deflections; Hurdles
The U.S. reportedly settled a trade remedies case with Indonesia, although the solution is off point from the original challenge. Trade Policy Deflections...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
The market in Romania and Bulgaria is very quiet. Farmers are still holding a large volume of wheat, but they prefer to wait for higher prices later in the...
China In-Country Analysis
Although the Chinese government has launched a new media campaign to educate and promote the safety of GM agricultural commodities, a quick review of China...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
Markets opened much firmer than expected Sunday evening and then continued to strengthen during the night and into today's session. Soybeans were clearly t...
Brazilian Election: Who is Aecio Neves?
Senator Aecio Neves trailed far behind Marina Silva and President Dilma Rousseff early in the campaign, but placed second in Brazil's presidential election...
Market Commentary
Markets were quiet in light overnight trading activity. It was a low volume back-and-forth trading session with little in terms of fresh market inputs. Cor...
North Dakota Farm Meeting
There were representatives from the malting barley and sunflower industry at the meeting. This supports the idea that the "minor" crops are engaged in watc...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
India's 2013/14 basmati rice crop saw different varieties purchased by millers at prices ranging between $485-625/MT. For several reasons, however, the pri...
Politics and Ethanol in Brazil and the U.S.
On Sunday, there will be a presidential election in Brazil where the Rousseff government has developed and implemented a tax credit for ethanol imports. In...
Divide; Differ; Distort
To say that the U.S. and EU economies are structured differently is an understatement. While public sector employment in the U.S. is smaller and has been d...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Bearish Global Dairy Market Won’t Slow U.S. Production
Some bullish factors in the U.S. include cheese and butter stocks in cold storage as of July that are at levels below the five-year average, which pushed u...
Tracking Market History
The desire of interested parties to "discover" the value of certain grains in the future is one of the reasons for the evolvement of the first futures mark...
Market Commentary
After trading on both sides, soybeans, wheat and corn all closed higher in quiet trade. Wheat and soybeans were helped by good export sales volume last wee...
EU Prejudice; Gracias; Gridlock
Watching the new EU Commissioner-designates before the EU Parliament provides a sense that the new bunch is even more prejudiced against a Transatlantic Tr...
Oilseed Highlights
The recent sharp declines in global soybean prices may be good news for the world's soybean processors, food manufacturers and animal feeders after years o...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
The only way for Argentina to be competitive in the current global corn market is to sell corn via combos (corn with meal). Presently, the country can offe...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
The Russian Ministry of Agriculture reported that 10.73 MMT of grain were exported as of 24 September 2014 and from the beginning of MY 2014/15 (26.6 perce...
Market Commentary
If one wanted market action today, he should have taken on the wheat market. Chicago wheat closed with minor gains, but it traded in a 15-16 cent range on...
Baleout; Undue Barrier
The U.S. has agreed to pay a relatively small number of Brazilian cotton farmers $300 million to settle a trade dispute over the size of subsidies given to...
Trade Policy Realities
EU Trade Commissioner-designate Cecilia Malmström told an EU Parliament panel yesterday that the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP)...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
Tunisia's government reported that the 2014 grain crop is up by about 80 percent at 2.34 MMT. It was also noted that there will be a very significant drop...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
Besides the ongoing anticipation of huge crop production and building stocks, markets ran into headwinds from outside factors as well today. General Commen...
USDA’s 1 September Stocks Report
If there is a surprise in the stocks reported today, it is the extremely tight ending 2013/14 soybean stocks of 92 million bushels, the lowest ending soybe...
Oilseed Highlights
The Chinese government's refusal to approve the two new biotech soybean events was known to U.S. soybean growers and officials in the biotech industry at l...
End of the Fiscal Year Snapshot
The short-term snapshot paints a rosy scenario for the federal budget with a lowered deficit, growing economy and strong revenues. However, if the current...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
Today's higher price action in the nearby November soybean contracts is likely continue in the short term, irrespective of the contents of tomorrow's USDA...
China In-Country Analysis
At a recent national seed conference in China, it was indicated that a new seed law is under development that will focus on amendment of the PRV, seed labe...
Putting the Squeeze on Switchgrass?
Most cellulosic ethanol today is made from crop residue as corn stover and wheat stalks are easily coprocessed at current corn ethanol plant locations. Swi...
Money Wasted; Pandering; Confusion; Smearing
The Observer reports Chinese President Xi Jinping declaring that his country must boldly pursue agricultural biotechnology and not allow foreign companies...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Russian and Ukrainian wheat has lost competitiveness to the French, German, Polish and other Baltic origins. Russia has exported about 10 MMT of wheat sinc...
USDA Quarterly Stocks Report
These quarterly stocks numbers have been critical market factors over the past several years when corn, soybean and wheat supplies were very tight. That wi...
Looking for “Minor” New Crop Bids
The minor crops will have the advantage in the 2015 growing season as farmers are again looking for alternatives to corn, soybeans and wheat. However, the...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Farm Bill Sign Up to Begin Next Week
Farmers will have until midwinter to complete the update of base acres and make their one-time irrevocable decision on whether to enroll in the Price Loss...
RFS; Biotech Wheat; Food Disease
While foodies pursue the newest modern food to pillory and the latest ancient orphan crop to ordain with faddism, the more serious participants in food res...
Market Commentary
Markets started the night session little changed, but the soy complex eventually worked lower and again set new contract lows in the process. Good weather...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
The government of India (GOI) released the food grain production data last week, and estimates indicate the 2014/15 kharif production at 120.27 MMT, a 6.94...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Oilseed Highlights
The general outlook for China's animal protein and feed sectors over the next year is positive. The industry is confident the lower feed prices will result...
Yen; Breakout; Labeling
Brazilian presidential candidate Marina Silva is an environmentalist in a highly protectionist country, and yet she appears ready to break the mold on her...
Oilseed Highlights
The general outlook for China's animal protein and feed sectors over the next year is positive. The industry is confident the lower feed prices will result...
Canada and Korea Sign FTA
Trade talks have been on-again/off-again since 2008. In fact, Canadian beef regained access to Korea in 2012 after a ban due to bovine spongiform encephalo...
Cycles
Since commodity prices have moved up and down in a cyclical fashion as long as prices have been recorded, there has developed a cottage industry of economi...
Market Commentary
Any semblance of yesterday's mini-rally disappeared during the day session that once again saw the nearby contracts for corn, soybeans and Chicago wheat si...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Ukraine's Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food reported that the country has exported 7.4 MMT of grain as of 19 September 2014 and from the beginning of MY...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange recently toured the region south of Buenos Aires and estimates that 150,000 hectares have been entirely lost to flooding. T...
Market Commentary
Surprisingly, wheat was the market's leader today. More specifically, it was Chicago wheat leading the way after posting new contract lows and the lowest p...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Blistering; Arbitrage; Named; Trends
In a blistering attack, 90 scientists reportedly sent a letter to President Obama urging him to make FDA decide one way or another on AquaBounty's nearly t...
Searching for Demand
One role that the market must play is to discover how low prices must drop to uncover demand. Obviously, this becomes more difficult when supplies are risi...
Republican Senate Means Very Different Ag Committee
There will be five current committee members retiring at the end of 2014, three Democrats and two Republicans. With a change in party control, the Republic...
Irony or Cynicism; Reeducation; Poison
New Delhi is single-handedly blocking implementation of a Trade Facilitation Agreement (TFA) that is designed to reduce barriers to trade with the very cou...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
Egypt's GASC had a very busy week with two tenders and surprising purchases of wheat from France and the U.S. It bought 180,000 MT of French wheat at an av...
Market Commentary
Corn futures traded fractionally higher before turning down again. Soybean futures prices traded both sides of unchanged and were actually higher during mu...
Oilseed Highlights
The large rise in China's soymeal exports to nearby markets has been mostly due to the lack of availability this year of the less expensive Indian soymeal...
China In-Country Analysis
The majority of China's soybean crushers are competitively keeping their plants' utilization rates up as available soybean stocks at the 20 major seaports...
Market Commentary
Soybeans set new contract lows today by a wide margin, dropping to $9.34. Wheat stabilized on news that Egypt had purchased a cargo of U.S. wheat for the f...
A Few More Things to Keep You Up at Night
The market is assuming another record Brazilian soybean crop in 2015, based on more planted acres and another super yield. One potential impediment to this...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Farmers in Romania and Bulgaria refuse to sell wheat at the current export parity, and the only trades reported in the domestic market are purchases from l...
Farm Program Budget Numbers Growing
It is difficult to predict what the final farm program payments will be as based on harvest prices, contract prices, acres harvested and the like, but the...
TPP Closeout; Pot and Alcohol Votes
Japanese Economy Minister and lead Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) negotiator Akira Amari will spend the next couple of days with his U.S. counterpart, Mic...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
USDA announced additional export sales of corn and soybeans today, but the market paid scant attention to those announcements. Instead, the focus continues...
Do Low Prices Mean Big Crop Insurance Payments?
There is a misconception that the revenue protection insurance program guarantees a price. It does not. It does, however, guarantee minimum dollars per acr...
Legislative Wrap Up for 2014
The stage is set for members of Congress to return to their states and districts for campaigning. Republicans who control the House will highlight the bill...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Non-GM canola seed has been introduced in India by private seed companies. In 2013/14 40,000 acres of land was put under canola seed in Northern India, a f...