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Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Embargo Blowback; Muddled Salt

There is no doubt that the Russian food import embargo is stinging exporters, particularly in Europe, but the West needs to hold a kumbaya on the situation...

Cereal Coercion; Sustainability

Environmentalists and some members of Congress are demanding that the government not approve Dow's Enlist Duo, genetically modified corn and soybeans that...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Ukraine's harvest totaled 33.764 MMT of grains and pulses as of 11 August, which included 9.12 MMT of barley, 23.348 MMT of wheat and 429,000 MT of rye.&nb...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Argentine farmer selling of soybeans is under 50 percent for the present campaign. It is doubtful that any additional beans will be sold to China from Sept...

Market Commentary

USDA's estimates for U.S. and world grain and soybean production and stocks continued to reverberate throughout the markets. The shift to record crops and...

Oilseed Highlights

Oil World is reporting this week that biodiesel production in Argentina and Brazil will increase sharply in both countries this year with Brazil's producti...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

Syria does not seem to be any closer to finalizing its wheat sale to Iraq as the government reported last week that 200,000 MT were awaiting shipment, but...

Forecasts from the August WASDE

Whether or not one considers today's August WASDE to be bearish depends on one's pre-report assumptions and the extent to which bearish expectations have a...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Troika; 91%; Onions

Notable is the decision by Kazakhstan and Belarus, the other two-thirds of the Russian-led Eurasian Customs Union, to not join Moscow in its food import bo...

Market Commentary

USDA's conservative U.S. corn yield of 167.4 bushels/acre and production estimate of 14.032 billion bushels probably disappointed corn market bears, but th...

Argentine Biodiesel Import Issues

There are actually two issues here. The first is the alternative biomass tracking process, which will run its course, and the second is Argentina's Differe...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

The Romanian and Bulgarian wheat harvest has finally been completed after a long delay due to the excessive rainfall in July and early August. Quality has...

U.S. Crop Revenue Assurance Guarantees Will Be Sharply Lower in 2015

Next year's program prices will not be established until February, so It is very early to be discussing what might happen in 2015 from a production standpo...

Crop Insurance Premium Subsidies

The underlying fundamental issue with  crop insurance is its actuarial soundness, and gaining higher levels of coverage through premium subsidies has...

China In-Country Analysis

After serious food safetly problems in recent years, China's Ministry of Agriculture and the National Health and Family Planning Commissions jointly issued...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Market Commentary

The traditional trading funds are still reportedly long just over 70,000 contracts of corn. If that length is liquidated on a really bearish USDA report to...

Russia; Bots; Rice

Russia is over six times more important as an export market for Europe's farmers than it is for their American counterparts (€12.2 billion versus $1.9 bill...

Change the Campaign

There has to be a market for biotech or else there will be no premium for non-biotech/organic. The opportunity missed by conventional agriculture continues...

Market Commentary

Rumors that Moscow might be withdrawing slightly from its aggressive posture with Ukraine seemed to trigger a wave of selling across the wheat markets. Cor...

Control of the Senate: Ag Committee Turnover

Of all the Senate win and loss combinations to change party control of that body, the Agriculture Committee plays a key role with five of its members retir...

Tuesday’s USDA Numbers Almost Have to be Bearish

There seems to be little doubt the production estimates will go up from the record corn and soybean yields already used in the July WASDE. The only questio...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

India's Ministry of External Affairs has suggested that it could allow U.S. chicken legs free entry into India if the U.S. permits imports of Indian basmat...

Russia Case; TTP/TPP; Government

China is prohibiting government procurement of all Apple products and Moscow has announced food import bans that only crudely reference any kind of WTO jus...

Ag Review: Timing the Commodity Cycle

Taming the Commodity Cycle Instead of reducing the biofuel mandate, policymakers need to make it a countercyclical approach to balancing supply and demand...

Oilseed Highlights

Argentina's Buenos Aires Grain Exchange today indicated the nation's soybean crop in 2014 totaled a record 55.5 MMT, while Brazil's Conab reduced its estim...

Hoping Against Hope

There seems to be a common thread emerging among many people with vested interests in corn and soybean prices and what direction they take. Farmers, cash g...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Market Commentary

Overnight trading in grain and soy futures was quiet and mixed. Grains were slightly weaker, while late buying brought soybeans modestly higher. Trade duri...

Russia Bans U.S. Meat and Dairy Products Imports

As retaliation for sanctions imposed on its energy, financial and weapons manufacturing sectors, Russia has banned a number of U.S.ag products, particularl...

Market Commentary

Funds bought around 8,000 contracts of corn to fuel today's price rally, which took place despite rains in the western Corn Belt. The rally also ignored a...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Dead Zones; Rating Africa; Trade Games; Water

One initiative arising out of the U.S.-Africa Leaders' Summit this week in Washington is a commitment by the U.S. Agency for International Development to p...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Ukraine's winter wheat harvest has reached its highest record level ever. This includes the period since the country became independent as well as the time...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Argentine corn premiums continue to decline, and the potential export surplus is close to 4.5 MMT. It may be difficult to find demand for such volume due t...

Crops With and Without Problems

U.S. spring planted crops have enjoyed excellent conditions to date, and they do not seem to be facing any major problems – at least so far. However, the s...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

Turkey's reduced crop production, resulting from several weather-related issues, is negatively impacting both wheat and barley exports as well as increasin...

Market Commentary

It was "Turnaround Tuesday" for corn and soy complex futures today, but not for wheat. Outside markets offered no support for grains, soybeans and other co...

Gridlock, Shopping and the Future

With around 50 heads of state in Washington this week for the U.S.-Africa Leaders' Summit, the streets are ablaze with the police sirens intended to keep t...

Dietary Guidelines: Politics on a Plate

Sustainability is the latest ingredient to be mixed in to the nutrition policy making process. It is also a topic that the Dietary Guidelines Committee has...

Oilseed Highlights

The French analytical firm Strategie Grains this week raised its forecast for the EU's rapeseed crop this year to a record 22.9 MMT, which is 400,000 MT ab...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

American Idiot; Time to Challenge; Superfoods

India's Prime Minister Narenda Modi wants Washington to recognize that India is burdened with trying to help the poor. Meanwhile, the county spends $1.1 bi...

Stock Market Bearish Despite Fundamentals

Most of the causes for last week's stock market drop are outside of the U.S. as most domestic economic news is promising and supportive. However another po...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

After three weeks of incessant rains, the yield and quality of the wheat in the western regions of Bulgaria and Romania have been affected significantly. F...

China In-Country Analysis

China exported 1.36 MMT of soymeal during the first half of 2014, a twofold surge over the first half of 2013. The average profit margin of Chinese soybean...

Canadian Crop Tour Yield Estimates Well Below 2013

Western Canada's producers will have several other issues to deal with as a result of the excessive rains. These could include another low protein spring w...

Market Commentary

Soybeans started last night with some follow-through selling from last Friday's weak day, but that selling quickly was absorbed by the short covering cause...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Salmonella in Chicken: U.S. And Foreign Policy Roles

As the U.S. Department of Agriculture's Food Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS) today announced the New Poultry Inspection System (NPIS), which is intend...

What Happened to the El Nino?

The Northern Hemisphere growing season of 2014 will have to rank as one of the calmest, most boring in a very long time, and an El Nino pattern had been ex...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Although India's Prime Minister Modi recently emphasized the need to help farmers increase production with fewer inputs as well as less water and land, two...

Market Commentary

In today's market action, soybeans and corn prices fell again, while wheat prices firmed. Forecasts for rain next week kept the corn and soybean markets on...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Philosophy; Perfection; Self-Help; Tariffs

A letter from 140 U.S. House members is demanding that Japan fully open its market to U.S. agricultural products, or it should be kicked out of the Trans-P...

Oilseed Highlights

The Brazilian Association of Vegetable Oil Industries (ABIOVE) said its members have not yet secured agreement with Monsanto on a royalty collection proced...

Market Commentary

Corn continued to drift lower despite the weekly export number being above expectations. The November (new crop) soybean contract traded both sides of unch...

Legacies from the Great War

World War I had an impact on American agriculture that in some respects is still being felt today. To ensure there was enough food to feed the army, the U...

Court Upholds COOL

In a 9-2 decision this week, the U.S. Court of Appeals in the District of Columbia upheld USDA's rule for mandatory country-of-origin-labeling (COOL) for m...

India’s Bounty; Sector Comparison

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is certainly not going to allow Trade Faciitation (TF) to move forward without the WTO green light to subsidize India's...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Market Commentary

The pace of futures trade overnight and again today was considerably slower than in recent days. Prices for the soy complex were hammered again, while corn...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russia exported 3.9 MMT of corn as of 30 June and from the beginning of MY 2013/14, which is double the entire MY 2012/13 result. The largest importers wer...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Bitter Tax; Double Breakfast; Defensive Loser

Representative Rosa DeLauro (D-Connecticut) is again pushing her proposed national tax on sugar-sweetened beverages as the silver bullet solution to obesit...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

The corn market in Argentina is currently quiet, and basis premiums weak. One reason is Argentine corn cannot compete in Colombia and Peru due to preferent...

Oilseed Highlights

One would think that with South America harvesting a record volume of soybeans in 2014, U.S. soybean export sales might lag a bit going into MY 2014/15. Ho...

Leverage and Imbalances

Trade is increasingly distorted despite WTO tenets to the contrary, which is made evident by contrasting policies being enacted by various countries around...

Market Commentary

Futures prices for the soy complex and grains started out higher during the overnight session, but they soon turned lower. Today's weather model runs added...

New Regulations for Fuel Transport by Rail

Shippers of both ethanol and petroleum fuel are worried that the new, slower speed standards will cause more backlogs and the potential volume requirements...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

Jordan has increased the price paid to farmers for local wheat to $635/MT in the hope of increasing local production, while import quality wheat can be pur...

Fun and Games with Weather

Every summer in the U.S. produces some kind of a weather market. We had begun to wonder if the summer of 2014 was going to be a rare exception to that rule...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Railroad Backlog Emerging as Market and Regulatory Issue

The railroads report that they are working on solutions to the rail backup problem for the fall grain harvest season, and BNSF projects that it is on track...

Lower Prices Will Mean Smaller Margins

The six-year run of high commodity prices coupled with generally good yields and record net farm income have also allowed all of the ancillary industries t...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

Tthe wheat quality in Europe has suffered from the excessive rains during the harvest and seems to have deteriorated the most in France. As a consequence,...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

China In-Country Analysis

Although China has announced a record harvest this summer, a major concern among rural development researchers is sustainability, considering the combinati...

Market Commentary

Wheat could only manage a steady to slightly weaker day today as soybeans were very strong and corn closed a nickel higher. The market's attitude is still...

Republicans and Democrats Versus EPA

Two sets of U.S. senators met with administration officials this week to discuss actions pending at U.S. EPA and came away with very different reactions.Tw...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

While India's monsoon has somewhat rebounded, farming communities have been impacted by the delayed rains. Rural demand is diminishing with crop selection...

More Things to Keep You Up at Night

Credit Suisse announced this week that it will exit its commodity trading business after reporting a second quarter loss of $779 million, much of which is...

Horseless; Knowledge

Europe stymies beef imports while concurrently shorting the animal feed market, which collectively makes meat higher-priced for consumers and also creates...

Market Commentary

Wheat turned positive, corn tried to get back to unchanged and soybeans cut their losses significantly by mid-morning. All of the markets remain oversold t...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Oilseed Highlights

While many in the Indian soybean industry have hopes the country's crop yields and planted area will rise in the future, the prevailing view is that it wil...

Market Commentary

The increased trading activity overnight carried over into the day session, especially in the soy complex. However, the enthusiasm over higher prices dimme...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Meaning?; RFS; Correction

Antagonists on both sides of the Atlantic have complained about a lack of transparency in the TTIP negotiations. Now a recently leaked copy of the EU's dra...

Global Pork Overview: Tale of Two Markets

While those countries most impacted by the Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea virus (PEDv) are seeing record-high pork prices, others are experiencing a much more b...

How Big is Big and the Consequences

As the growing season has progressed, discussions about potential yields and crop sizes have come to dominate markets. However, it may turn out to be a mem...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

South American producers have more problems and less financial support than their North American counterparts, and such difficulties could easily transitio...

Market Commentary

Markets have been greatly oversold, as we have observed before, and were due for a bounce. So when the soy complex began to exert a little upward muscle, c...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

The Russian Ministry of Agriculture announced that 1.007 MMT of grain were exported as of 16 July 2014 and from the beginning of MY 2014/15 as Ukraine expo...

Pests; Broken; Sequence; Data

Brussels continues to rebut U.S. complaints about its biotech approval system, but not a single approval has occurred this year despite repeated safety cle...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

CBO Releases Long-Term Budget Outlook

The 2011 and 2014 budget deals and the 2013 sequester have made a significant difference in total federal spending, mostly in the discretionary area, but h...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

In light of recent large fines levied by the U.S. government on financial institutions for avoiding strict Sudanese trade sanctions, many banks and trading...

Market Commentary

Yesterday afternoon's weekly crop condition report set the tone for today's corn market. The 76 percent good/excellent rating so late in July along with 56...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

A Bore; Reality

India commercially exports rice, soymeal and wheat, invests in a space program and has now committed billions to a BRICS bank. All the while, it claims pov...

World Wheat Outlook

Wheat is still considered politically significant, especially in certain countries where it is the principal agricultural crop or a principal food. If worl...

Oilseed Highlights

China's soymeal exports rose to 301,731 MT in June, a 128 percent increase over a year ago. The sharp rise has been driven primarily by a shortage of India...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Market Commentary

It is worthwhile noting that index funds are reportedly still holding about 300,000 long corn contracts. Corn condition ratings were unchanged in today's r...

More Scrutiny for EPA’s Waters of the U.S. Rule

To date, the one EPA action that has triggered a complaint by the National Farmers Union (NFU) is the setting of the 2014 biofuels volumes, which its lette...

China In-Country Analysis

The latest USDA 30 June Acreage Report helped push down soybean futures significantly. As a result, Chinese soybean trading companies and crushers were hit...

TTIP Angst; Local Joke

Those on the U.S. agriculture side express disappointment that Brussels is still pushing geographic indicators in TTIP discussions, while bringing nothing...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

The weather remained unstable in Romania and Bulgaria last week, impacting the harvest. Exporters in Bulgaria are only offering feed wheat at the moment as...

Projected Returns Drop below Break-Even Levels

The implication going forward is that corn acres are in jeopardy for the 2015 crop year under the current market price structure. Soybeans have had a signi...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

While India has been challenged over its recently enacted Food Security Act that is viewed by developed nations as a violation of the WTO Bali agreement, s...

Market Commentary

Soybean futures turned higher at the opening bell this morning on more USDA soybean sales announcements. Wheat futures turned sharply lower, which pulled c...

APHIS Withdraws GE Information Sharing Rule

The purpose of the rule was to help state and tribal governments better review and comment on the notifications and permit applications received by APHIS a...

Laughing; Ukraine; Hopeful and Concerning

It is Republicans who would be on the defensive in November if they are blocking a TPP agreement that has strong support from the business community. Laugh...

Bring on the Heat

Extended forecasts released yesterday continue to point toward cooler than normal temperatures for most of the Corn Belt. This means the soy complex could...

Look Out; Expensive Straw

Given that the EU has refused to adopt science-based SPS measures and Trade Commissioner Karel De Gucht has just promised the European Parliament that bord...

FSIS Proposes Retailer Traceability for Ground Beef

USDA's Food Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS) has proposed new regulations to provide more information on the beef that is used for grinding, which woul...

Trading Market Spreads 101

The strategy of buying a futures contract in a nearby time frame, then selling it just before that contract expires and replacing it by purchasing a more d...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Market Commentary

Corn futures closed fractionally higher in consolidating trade on both sides of yesterday's closes. The Malaysian plane disaster lit up the market, briefly...

Oilseed Highlights

Germany's biofuel industry association today said a new greenhouse gas reduction scheme passed yesterday is likely to result in reduced biofuel consumption...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Harvesting is difficult in the eastern regions of Ukraine where the anti-terrorist operation is in progress, and some areas in Luhanska and Donetska oblast...

Market Commentary

Wheat reluctantly followed corn higher overnight, but Chicago and KC contracts gave it all back by the end of the day session and closed mixed. MGE spring...

Awaiting Default; Miscellany

USDA's Economic Research Service looked at mandatory and discretionary SPS measures for imported fruits and vegetables versus actual trade flows and conclu...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

An interesting development is occurring in Brazil with the Paranagua paper market, which is normally used as a hedge and reference for farmers, traders and...

Market Commentary

After being down as much as 16 cents, new crop November soybeans fought their way back to close unchanged. They even traded in green numbers briefly. Their...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Farm Bill Payments Could Be Coming

USDA's latest WASDE report puts the new Price Loss Coverage (PLC) and Agriculture Risk Coverage (ARC) programs more in play with news of good crop conditio...

Oilseed Highlights

Argentina's biodiesel exports fell sharply in 2013 as a result of the anti-dumping duties imposed by the EU. In response, the Argentine government initiate...

World Corn Outlook for 2014/15

We expect that estimated U.S. corn production will rise close to 14 billion bushels and, moreover, that favorable conditions for other important corn-growi...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

Iraqi grain traders advise that it has become impossible for Syria to deliver the wheat to Iraq that was arranged in June 2013 as truckers are not able to...

Organic Mush; Domain Angst

Europe's wine industry is in a dispute with the internet domain body called ICANN. The industry fears that new domain categories called .wine and .vin coul...

China In-Country Analysis

China's Ministry of Agriculture (MOA) issued a policy document aimed at reducing food loss during grain production. One of the notable reasons behind this...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Lesser Prairie Chickens and Zimbabwean Elephants

Kansas has announced that it will oversee the breeding of  Lesser Prairie Chickens (LPCs) for release into habitat. Although the concept in relation t...

Financial Readjustment

Farmers have used the bonus depreciation allowance aggressively for several consecutive years to buy new equipment and build new farm facilities to reduce...

Market Commentary

Wheat and soybean futures were showing double-digit gains most of the day, while corn trailed far behind with 3-4 cent gains. U.S. financial markets were v...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

Starting tomorrow, the EU will introduce an import levy on corn that is based on the last 10 day-average price of U.S. corn to Rotterdam versus the EU's ma...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

USDA Numbers Bearish as Expected

USDA did not raise the corn or soybean yields in the July WASDE, and most analysts believe that will occur in August. Increased yields, of course, will mea...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

India's 2014/15 budget attempts to target economic growth at 7–8 percent over a three-four year period after less than 5 percent growth for the past two ye...

Farm Bill Implementation Hearing

Congress made a number of major changes to crop support programs, and farmers will be faced with some decision-making regarding new coverage options. It is...

China; Trade; India; Water

Some trade policy analysts are convinced that politics will prevent any progress on trade agreements this year. Yet the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) neg...

Market Commentary

As expected, today's release of the July WASDE added to the overall bearish tone to the market that has persisted since USDA's quarterly stocks reports and...

The “Noisy” Uptick of Food Prices

It is the costs of food and energy that affect consumers first and impact them most, especially those with lower incomes, and those prices are on the rise...

Ag Review: Examining China

China's Broad Developments China is spending money on agriculture and trading futures, but self-sufficiency remains an unlikely outcome. China Pork Revolut...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Rooster Impotence

Broiler production expansion has been somewhat lagging in the past two years for several reasons, and now the major breeding stock provider Aviagen Group h...

Better TF; Emotions

Trade Facilitation (TF), the WTO concept agreed to at Bali last year for reducing and making transparent the transactional costs that governments impose on...

Market Commentary

USDA will release its July WASDE numbers at 12 PM (EDT) tomorrow. That also gave us some choppy trade today, but volume was very good in corn and soybeans...

Oilseed Highlights

Coca Cola and Pepsi have announced they will remove brominated vegetable oil (BVO) from many of their popular soft drinks, but not because the FDA has foun...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Approximately 63 MMT of grain may be harvested in Ukraine for MY 2014/15, which would be one of the largest in the country's history.  Grain and port...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Doomed; Ditch; Big Guns

For the industry and services sectors, agriculture has always been a thorn when it comes to trade negotiations. That remains the case, but a heartening app...

Market Commentary

Grain and soy futures prices continued to leak lower, although at a somewhat less frenetic pace. Some non-commercials appear to be putting on short positio...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Recent declines in CBOT futures prices extend out through 2015 and are making South American producers nervous about the future margins that they can expec...

Marketing Impacts

The U.S. originally opposed a dispute settlement mechanism in the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement on issues surrounding Sanitary and Phytosanitar...

Debate over Economic News

A number of economic reports for June were released last Thursday, and the news is now full of debate about whether these new statistical indicators are go...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Weather, Crops and Prices

Ever since USDA began providing this year's first weekly crop condition reports up to the present, the conditions reported for corn and soybeans have spark...

Oilseed Highlights

As a result of insufficient rainfall in key growing areas, India's soybean plantings as of 4 July are reported to be about 90 percent less than the 4.3 mil...

Market Commentary

The selling pace in the corn market has slowed as the December contract gradually slips towards the $4.00 level. Friday's corn supply and demand should not...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

While Turkey's demand for both soybeans and soymeal is rising due to expansion in the poultry and livestock sector, it can only be met by increasing import...

Surreal in Nigeria and other Policy Curiosities

Nigerian  Minister of Agriculture Akinwumi Adesina went to great lengths to assure the public that biotechnology was not being used in Nigerian agricu...

China In-Country Analysis

China's rejection of U.S. DDGS has resulted in those cargoes being resold to its neighbors,  which are also the major export destination markets for i...

Climate Change Impact on Agriculture

Potential impacts of climate change that do not consider agricultural adaptation are of limited use and insight. This is a long-term trend, so anticipating...

Market Commentary

Excluding the liquidating July contracts, today's highs for soybean and corn futures contracts never came close to last Thursday's closes. Despite the mark...

It’s a Lonely Time for Bulls

The traditional speculative trading funds are now holding a major short position in wheat (near a record) and have exited their long positions in corn and...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

COOL Attracts Attention Outside of Ag

The COOL Reform Coalition, representing a diverse group of businesses, has sent a letter to Congress urging USDA to abandon its implementing rule for the l...

Market Commentary

Today's holiday-shortened session again featured, if that is the right word, lower corn and soybean prices. The 4th of July holiday is typically the point...

One Long-Term View

The first thing catching our attention is that while the U.S. 2014 soybean plantings rose more than 8 million acres higher than last year and the new 2014...

Oilseed Highlights

The combined Argentine and Brazilian biodiesel production is forecast to  rise by 1 MMT in 2014, driven by Brazil's increase in the mandatory biodiese...

TTIP Titanic; U.S. Myopic

U.S. aggies have shared tough talk with European officials about their expectations for the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP), and EU A...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

The bearish result of USDA's data on Monday is causing adjustments to occur in South American pricing of corn and soybeans. Increasing the complexity of th...

Market Commentary

Soybean futures continued to slump lower in the aftermath of USDA's estimate of 84.8 million soybean acres, visions of a 3.8 or 3.9 billion bushel soybean...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

On 1 July, the European Commission Standing Committee on the Food Chain and Animal Health approved cancellation of the current restrictions on imports of U...

Silly; Litigation Please

The Obama administration has consistently shown its belief in the efficacy of biotechnology, and its next step should be preparing the legal briefs for a W...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Some Post-Report Thoughts

There is now probably not much to be said about yesterday's USDA stock and acreage reports that is new. However, there are a few things gleaned from them t...

Huge Increase in U.S. Soybean Plantings: Now What?

If the U.S. does produce a huge soybean crop this fall that causes soybean prices to fall well below $10/bushel, the greatest short-term impact likely will...

Biotech; Policy Shorts

Since a recent study acknowledges that organic foods are garnering market share by stoking fears about biotech, the conventional food industry should deman...

Conservation Compliance for Crop Insurance Rule Issued

Section 2611 of the 2014 Farm Bill links a farmer's eligibility for the premium crop insurance subsidy to compliance with conservation provisions of the 19...

Market Commentary

There is no doubt that USDA's acreage and stocks estimates combined with the fancy weekly crop condition ratings have suddenly created a very bearish envir...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

Turkey may pull out of its customs union with the EU if the EU/U.S. Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) is ratified without its inclusion...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

USDA Reports Bearish

The quarterly stocks numbers for corn and soybeans were slightly bearish. The soybean number at 405 million bushels was 27 million bushels higher than expe...

Swine Herd Down More Than Anticipated

A reduction in the swine herd due to the impact of the Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea virus (PEDv) had been anticipated, and analysts had expected USDA's quarte...

China In-Country Analysis

It was announced on 24 June that China will revise its food safety law to include tougher rules for safety and stricter supervision. However, decentralized...

Market Commentary

USDA's soybean acreage estimate blew the market away, coming in nearly 3 million acres above the March estimate. Corn stocks were 100 million bushels above...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

Most analysts are now predicting that the 2014 Russian and Ukrainian crops will be higher than last year with Russia's estimated at 52-54 MMT and Ukraine's...

CBO Issues Report on the RFS

The purpose of the report was to address concerns among policy makers and analysts about the feasibility of meeting the higher standards for blending biofu...

Market Commentary

Standard commodity analysts may soon adjust their stories to proclaim, "Production will be large but demand is even larger!" Similar market dialog occurred...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Does Rain Make Grain or Not?

Everyone associates crop stress with heat and dryness. It can also be caused by too much water, and this is starting to attract some attention as the rains...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Following pressure from the sugar lobby, largely the cooperatives, GOI has agreed to bail out the sugar industry once again and has increased the import du...

Fresh; Leverage; Rant

The White House is withholding a $277 million Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) aid package to El Salvador until that country ends a domestic corn and...

Oilseed Highlights

Demand for animal feed is on the rise in China as a result of an end to avian flu outbreaks this spring and a recovery in swine profitability. This increas...

Elements of Beef Expansion

Herd expansion still relies on the profitability of the cow-calf sector, which is easy to forget with record cattle prices. Retaining heifers, though, is a...

Some Off the Wall Questions

In the course of searching for something new and different to write about, we found ourselves thinking about a variety of generally unrelated off the wall...

Policy; CAFOs; Forum Shopping

Beijing will reportedly experiment with making a deficiency payment to farmers in order to bridge the difference between the market price and what farmers...

Market Commentary

KC July HRW was up 7 cents as rains are again delaying harvest in Kansas and posing the threat of quality deterioration. Rains have also delayed the Mid-So...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Because of inconsistent export policies out of Argentina and recent declines in regional exportable wheat supplies, the Brazilian government will reduce th...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Ukrainian grain producers will need 1.5 billion m3 of natural gas to dry the grain and oilseed crops to be harvested in 2014 and want guarantees from the g...

World Perspectives on the Move

Please note that World Perspectives has changed locations and our new address is: 1301 Pennsylvania Ave. NW  Suite 501, Washington, DC 20004 Please...

Spanking; Rules

U.S. trade negotiators are asserting that regulatory convergence under the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) will offer more safety dat...

Market Commentary

Funds certainly did not show anxiety over the size of their July positions today. Prior to the market opening, there were still about 142,000 contracts of...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

30 June and Beyond

The 30 June acreage figures will be etched in stone at the top of everyone's 2014/15 supply/demand estimates for the entire crop year until or unless they...

Federal Reserve Mostly Staying the Course

There was some expectation that the Federal Reserve Board would address the federal funds rate in a more aggressive manner than it did, but the official wo...

Market Commentary

Corn futures closed lower on favorable weather prospects that encourage thoughts of an above trend yield. Old crop soybeans and the old crop/new crop sprea...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

According to the FAO, Egypt's wheat and corn crops this year will be slightly above average size this year, but it expects that the country will have to im...

Oilseed Highlights

The European Food Safety Agency (EFSA) has determined that Monsanto's MON 88302 biotech rapeseed event is safe for human and animal health and poses no thr...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Fights and Battles

The war on fat, sugar and salt rivals the longstanding war over biotechnology. The latest involved a broadside from lawyers Rick Frank and Bruce Silverglad...

China In-Country Analysis

The 17 June state soybean reserves auction size was 358,558 MT. However, weak demand was evident as sales totaled only 72,852 MT, which is a lower turnover...

Why North Dakota Has Joined the Corn Belt

Has it been the new plant genetics that have pushed corn and soybeans farther north and west, or has it really been the shift to a Corn Belt climate across...

Market Commentary

There was plenty of market chatter this morning trying to explain the last minute surge in soybean and soymeal futures last Friday. Trade this week could s...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

The excessive rains that have persisted in Bulgaria and Romania for more than two months peaked last Thursday night. Farmers in the most severely affected...

Global Oil Supply Buffering ISIS Impact in Iraq

While the effect of the Iraqi ISIS situation has been limited to date and the increase in U.S. and world production has provided a buffer, there are certai...

Wheat is Not Just Wheat

There is only one class of corn and one of soybeans, but there are officially six classes of wheat produced in the U.S. that all have different properties...

Senate Appropriations: Minibus Parked

The Senate minibus appropriations bill, which covered the Agriculture, Commerce, Justice, Transportation and Housing and Urban Development Departments, has...

Looking East; Rubbish; Another FTA

Should  the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) reach fruition this year, the pressure on Brussels to recalibrate will be great as capital markets have al...

Oilseed Highlights

Because of the heavy rainfall, some farmers meeting in Minnesota said they have lost as much as 10-15 percent of their crops to flooding. At this point, th...

Market Commentary

Corn futures were slightly lower overnight and early today before gradually pushing toward slightly higher. There was never any concerted selling pressure...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

India's new government plans to revamp the flagship scheme of its predecssor, the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (MNREGA), and h...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Prices for Proteins at All Time High

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics' latest release for May 2014, the seasonally adjusted prices for red meat, poultry, eggs and even fish (driven...

Oxymoronic; Alternative Motive

It is time for Congress to reassess the RFS and rewrite its requirements to match both the technical feasibility and market economics that currently prevai...

Global Food Security Challenge

The goal of ending world hunger has always had universal support, but for many years the challenges involved in achieving this have tended to stay on the f...

Market Commentary

Export sales were generally light, reflecting increased competition from other origins and the buyers' hopes for lower prices to come. However, we should p...

Market Commentary

KC HRW futures were the star of the market today. Poor yields and fear that heavy rains might lower the quality of what is harvested coalesced to push KC J...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

The Argentine soybean harvest is 90 percent complete, while farmer selling is only 35 percent finished, which is significantly behind the historical pace...

End Game; Rice Price

Rice is one of those thinly traded (less than 10 percent of production moves into international trade), highly subsidized commodities that annoys everyone...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Ukrainian milling wheat and feed wheat prices declined on the domestic market as farmers in the southern regions started harvesting winter wheat and have r...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Oilseed Highlights

Global biodiesel production has grown to reach approximately 29.12 MMT this year and has become the market for about 7.3 MMT of soyoil, 9.6 MMT of palm oil...

Market Commentary

Wheat prices were lower early, reaching the lowest levels in over four months. However, this brought on some bargain hunting buying interest that helped pr...

House Majority Leader and Immigration Reform

Representative Eric Cantor (R-Virginia) became the first House majority leader to be defeated in a primary, based largely on immigration. Now Representativ...

The Soybean Puzzle – Again

Why are markets ignoring all of the numbers that on paper add up to an incredibly tight supply situation?USDA's weekly crop condition report rated 76 perce...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

Morocco's Attijariwafa Bank is financing $300 million for Russian wheat purchases during the 2014/15 import period. The agreement was signed in Moscow last...

Market Commentary

Expectations of great crop ratings today coupled with few, if any, weather problems continue to pressure corn prices lower. Some analysts are now starting...

Bye-Bye Bali; Common Language

India and the G-33 group of developing nations are upset that affluent WTO members are asking for more data on New Delhi's agricultural subsidies. Common L...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

China In-Country Analysis

China's announcement on 7 June that that it would suspend the issuance of import permits for U.S DDGS has resulted in rising prices for domestic DDGS as we...

New RFS Reform Proposal: U.S. Advanced Biofuel Only

The bill would require all advanced biofuels (undifferentiated advanced, biodiesel and cellulosic) to be produced in the U.S. as well as continue to meet t...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

The excessive rains in Bulgaria and Romania may result in a larger share of feed versus milling wheat this year. In 2013/14, both countries exported about...

It Could Be a Slow Summer

There are few potential crop production problems around the world as we are heading into the last half of June. It is going to be difficult to encourage an...

Too Many Shuttle Loaders

Operating margins for shuttle loaders have been exceptionally good in recent years because of good crops and strong demand, but are now becoming more compr...

Trade and Biofuel Skids

Canadian Agriculture Minister Gerry Ritz has taken a more strident position regarding agricultural trade liberalization via TPP than perhaps the Japanese a...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

There is hope that India's new government will bolster the economy's upward turn with revisions in policy. Industrial production rose in April 2014 as infl...

CFTC Reauthorization

The House reauthorization bill contains a number of reforms and addresses many of the Dodd-Frank Act provisions. It should be able to move through that cha...

Market Commentary

Wheat followed corn's gains despite the fact that Egypt bought Romanian and Russian wheat yesterday. No one expected U.S. wheat to trade. The EU reported t...

EPA Extends Comment Period on Water Rule

This delay is considered a major tactical victory by most livestock and agriculture groups. If approved, the new guideline would effectively remove the wor...

Meat, Critics and Consumers

As the world recovers ever so gradually from the 2008-10 recession and its aftermath, the percentage of the world's population considered to be middle clas...

Market Commentary

Last year at this time, the red hot cash market and record high basis bids led the soy futures market to high prices and a wide old/new crop inverse. This...

Unchlorinated; Screwy

The House will not complete the fiscal 2015 agriculture appropriations bill until next week, but already there have been some harmful amendments adopted. U...

Oilseed Highlights

USDA increased its estimates for Argentina's domestic soymeal consumption yesterday to reflect rising exports of mixed feeds. While most of these exports i...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

This year Argentine farmers have sold 1.57 MMT fewer soybeans than the total for the same date a year ago. The most important information for the market is...

Market Commentary

June WASDEs are seldom major market movers, and today's report was certainly was not bullish. As if by signal, there was a general across-the-board sell of...

Selective; True Colors; Inequality

FAS Agricultural Counselor Allan Mustard (nominated to be U.S. Ambassador to Turkmenistan) has issued a report exposing how New Delhi is substantially subs...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Buyers in China are reported to be interested in buying Russian grain, and Rosselkhoznadzor (the Federal Service for Veterinary and Phytosanitary Surveilla...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Majority Leader Who Delayed Farm Bill Ousted in Primary

Yesterday the number two Republican in the House lost his seat in an upset primary. Ironically, Cantor has tried for two years to schedule a legislative ag...

Trade Policy: Restrictions; UnSchocked

Calculations by the EU indicate that safeguard measures against its exports rose by 10 percent in 2013, and some of the prime blockers included India, Chin...

Oilseed Highlights

India's soybean-producing regions are expected to be particularly vulnerable to inadequate rains from this year's monsoon, and there also is concern about...

A Week’s Worth of Differences

The trading record shows how thoroughly the price action of November soybeans has been dominated by the July contract, which is to say, by the very tight o...

Market Commentary

This morning, Brazil's Conab revised its estimate of that country's 2013/14 corn production upward to 77.9 MMT, second only to last year's 81.5 MMT. M...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

Egypt has decided to delay its planned increase in the price of fuel for industry, individuals and homes as the belief is that it would be bad for the over...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

House Agenda: Where Ag Fits Into Election Year Politics

While it is likely Congress will work toward having a continuing resolution by the end of the year, three appropriations bills have been tabbed to move for...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

Both the Russian and Ukrainian wheat crops are developing under generally favorable conditions, and most analysts estimate that the combined 2014/15 surplu...

What Happens Next?

Soybeans remain the wild card. The big money refuses to let go of the soybean market despite several recent head fakes that looked like the start of a majo...

Ethanol Election; Studies in Failure

Biofuel policy has always been political, and now there is a reported election year effort to use EPA's final decision on the 2014 Renewable Fuel Standards...

China In-Country Analysis

Historically, China has established a minimum purchase price only for buying directly from farmers and replenishing provincial reserves. Now the central go...

Market Commentary

The primary bearish factor hanging over the corn and soybean markets is the size of the speculative length. Exiting and rolling of positions by large specu...

Looking at SNAP Backward and Forward

According to the House Budget Committee report, SNAP spending that totaled $78 billion in 2012 is scheduled to decrease slightly over the next 10 years, bu...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Canada Legislates Better Rail Service

The uproar over the plight of Canada's rail logistics has been an issue since the 2013 harvest that was 50 percent larger in volume than the 10-year averag...

Market Commentary

The combination of double-digit gains in both July and December corn contracts and the engulfing candlestick pattern of the prior day's close are indicativ...

Brazil’s Demands; Green Washing; Efficiency

The activist group called Anonymous has reportedly released Brazil's demands for settlement of the WTO cotton case against the U.S., and it is sure to rile...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

To retain agriculturists in the farming business, India's government is eager to provide income security and assist the farming communities in conserving w...

Ag Review: The Middle East and U.S. Agriculture

Middle East Squeeze The energy abundance brought about by the fracking boom is causing OPEC heartache and could eventually spark another Middle East food c...

Market Commentary

A somewhat interesting development in the soy complex is that old crop contracts appeared weaker than new crop in both soybeans and meal. That condition ne...

Oilseed Highlights

Because of a smaller than normal soybean crop in 2013 that was also of poor quality, India is facing a shortage of soymeal this year to feed its domestic a...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Protein Consumption Still Down with Lower Feed Costs

2014 feed costs are projected down about $6 billion from last year, a drop of more than 11 percent. However, the bow wave effect of high feed costs is stil...

Research Misdirection and Adequacy; Food and Weapons

There is gnashing of the teeth by some in Washington because public funding of agricultural research is largely ignored. However, this ignores two importan...

Market Commentary

Buying into the present downward trend in corn contracts does seem to make sense for the trader who has sufficient capital and a realistically defined exit...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

A number of South American corn exporters are very scared by the current pricing dynamics because they need movement through the ports, storehouses and oth...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Ukraine's 2014 winter grains harvest is forecasted at 26.2 MMT, almost 1 MMT more than in 2013. The increase is expected as a result of the gain in average...

Turk, Pak, Braz; Food Religion

It is entirely feasible that a settlement in the WTO cotton case will involve U.S. taxpayers subsidizing Brazilian cotton farmers so that they can continue...

Oilseed Highlights

The current marketing year is on track for the combined U.S. exports of soybeans, soymeal and soyoil to set a record. There is also an expectation that thi...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

Egypt is considering revisions to its wheat import specifications, particularly moisture, which could once again enable the importation of French wheat. GA...

Market Commentary

Markets were soft again overnight with the soy complex leading the way lower. That softness turned into a much harder downturn once the regular day trading...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

EPA Clean Air Plan: Biomass Options Questioned

Perhaps the most telling comment from EPA's Science Advisory Board  (SAB) was the recommendation to benchmark electric generation with an ethanol plan...

Political Instability in Ukraine – the Fertilizer Fallout

A major determinant for the competitiveness of Ukrainian fertilizer on global export markets is its cash cost of production, and the country's current conf...

Land Rents Headed Down?

The longer-term reality is that unless there is a crop production problem someplace this year that significantly changes the U.S. or world supply situation...

Unintended; False; Survey Says

The group People for the Ethical Treatment of Animals (PETA) has sparked furor with its "Got Autism?" campaign that seeks to link consumption of dairy prod...

Market Commentary

It was another interesting day in the soy complex. July futures went right down to technical support at $14.78 overnight and then reversed course when the...

China In-Country Analysis

China's soymeal price fluctuated up to $654/MT during the week of 26 May as most of the country's large and mid-sized feed producers are stocking up ...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

EPA Clean Air Plan: What to Watch for in Ag Impacts

If this plan survives inevitable court challenges, there will be an opportunity for EPA to move this model on to other sectors such as agriculture, particu...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

Excessive rains in Bulgaria and Romania are threatening the wheat quality there as the moisture favors the spreading of diseases. These rains are often cou...

Global Biodiesel Roundup

Argentina, the world's top biodiesel exporter, is considering a proposed reaction to the EU's imposition of anti-dumping duties on its biodiesel and is als...

Cow Paddy; Madness; Bogus; Sailed

The Cairns Group, a coalition of agricultural exporting countries, is trying to reinvigorate WTO negotiations for placing stronger limits on domestic farm...

Market Commentary

All markets gradually succumbed to moderate selling pressure as the day wore on. Corn, wheat and soybeans were all lower by noon. It was also the last trad...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

As India's milk demand rises for many reasons, the sourcing of good, quality milk is one of the main concerns for the large dairy processing companies as s...

What About Argentina?

Seemingly lost in all of the soybean market talk is anything relevant to Argentina. It has been in the background for a very long time for many reasons, ne...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Market Commentary

Volume picked up somewhat during the day session in which corn prices ground lower, wheat gave up its overnight gains to join corn in the red and soybeans...

Poultry Leading Mergers and Acquisition Activity

Feed costs for poultry producers are down about 19 percent year-over-year and demand for chicken is strong, given the high prices caused by reduced beef an...

Trade Agreements; Speculation; Approps; Biotech

European filmmakers and EU culture ministers are reportedly rallying against the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) negotiations, chargi...

Super-Villainous GMOs

When we think of superhero/super-villain movies and their common characteristics, it is really not a big stretch to compare them to the strident controvers...

Oilseed Highlights

Why has the U.S. sold almost five times as much soymeal for export in the next marketing year than the average sold in the previous three marketing years a...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Market Commentary

The grain and soy futures market price action has evolved into a contest between extremely tight old crop soybean supplies and old crop futures and just ab...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Chinese buyers continued to purchase old crop soybeans from Brazil for June-August. In contrast, the Argentine market remains very quiet, although there is...

Fuzzy Econ and Science; Biotech and Biofuel

U.S. EPA proposed a reduction in the biofuel mandate, but is reportedly considering walking back a bit on the decision. Lending credence to that outcome is...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russia is reported to have exported 24.104 MMT of grain as of 21 May 2014 and from the beginning of MY 2013/14. However, a Rusagrotrans official expects Ju...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

Contracts have been awarded in Egypt for the building of two UAE-financed wheat silos there. These are the first two in the joint UAE/Egypt project to buil...

Election Year Issues Kick in: EPA in Crosshairs

Senate Agriculture Committee Republicans have signed a letter to EPA Administrator Gina McCarthy regarding a number of regulatory matters before the agency...

Oilseed Highlights

Industry officials yesterday indicated the Brazilian government is expected tomorrow to increase the minimum amount of biodiesel to be blended into diesel...

Market Commentary

The corn market is signaling technical weakness, and we wonder how long discretionary fund longs will be willing to hang on. They need a weather problem to...

MCC/TF; Denials; Shorts

Ideas of all stripes can be threatening to some, but Europe faces the unique risk of completely offshoring the pursuit of scientific ideas. Tie MCC to TF T...

Spring Into Summer

USDA's initial projections for U.S. 2014/15 crop production in the May WASDE seemed quite optimistic at the time they were released in the midst of the ear...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Market Commentary

Corn was steady to 1-2 higher much of the session in trading volume that was something less than half of normal levels ahead of the long weekend. China wil...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

With prevailing heat wave conditions and indications of a delayed monsoon, several Indian states have issued an advisory stipulating a delay in crop planti...

Ag Appropriations Moving Forward

Both the House and Senate Appropriations Committees are working within the constraints of keeping total discretionary funding at $1.014 trillion, which cam...

Morals; Uncertainty; Baloney

The EU's import ban of seal products on "public moral concerns" was upheld by the WTO Appellate Body and could greatly broaden the use of moral claims for...

Once Again We Underestimate Fund Demand

Back eight or nine years ago when the ethanol boom happened and drove prices of everything to new all-time highs, much of that new buying was generated by...

Reprise: The U.S. and World Grain Prices

The recent price movements of the world's most widely-watched soybean, corn and wheat futures contracts have called to mind once again the question of what...

Market Commentary

With two weeks of the crop year left to account for, wheat shipments are more than 120 million bushels below USDA's estimate. There seems no way that gap c...

Oilseed Highlights

Data released yesterday by China's General Administration of Customs indicates Chinese soybean processors have sharply increased their soymeal exports in t...

Choosing a Cat Fight

Washington offers multiple and varied opportunities to engage in the agricultural policy debate, and today presented two competing options that are both an...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

FY 2015 Appropriations Bill

The House passed the agricultural appropriations bill for FY 2015 yesterday, and its biggest controversy revolves around USDA efforts to make school lunche...

Market Commentary

The U.S. Federal Reserve Bank released the minutes from its April meeting today, and the stock market seemed to like what it read. General Comments The U.S...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

As of 16 May, Ukraine's grain exports totaled 30.5 MMT, 43.2 percent more than during the same period in the previous market year. Included were 8.8 MMT of...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Brazil needs to seriously consider trade issues as it may become the leading soybean exporter next season. Minister of Agriculture Neri Geller declared tha...

Dark Prince; Breakthrough

China will correctly exploit science, technology and mechanization to advance its own agricultural production, but it will err if it worries about the Lest...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

The Chamber of Commerce in Egypt has announced that it is working with four banks there to provide financing for the expansion of the poultry industry in U...

Soybean Market Fun and Games

The soybean futures market seems to ignore the seemingly inevitable, bearish shift in soybean supply/demand fundamentals in 2014/15. It is almost as though...

Oilseed Highlights

There are indications that at least five more cargoes of Brazilian soybeans are ether on their way to the U.S. or soon will be. Additional shipments of Bra...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Farmland, Credit Conditions and the Fed’s Exit Strategy

We've been in a period of low interest rates and high commodity prices that have helped drive up farm real estate values. Now the Federal Reserve is consid...

Market Commentary

It was a rather strange day for grain and soy markets, which saw prices swinging in wide trading ranges. General Comments It was a rather strange day for...

GI Campaign

The EU is subsidizing an education campaign in the U.S. with the goal of having its farmers clamor for geographic indicators (GIs), but the trick is for Br...

Wobbles; Cost of Purity; Traps

A House Agriculture Appropriations subcommittee considers a $20.9 billion FY 2015 funding bill tomorrow that would provide the Farm Service Agency with a $...

Market Commentary

Soybeans again defied all of the bearish fundamental inputs and rallied sharply on significant fund buying. That left many in the trade looking for a solid...

China In-Country Analysis

China's Ministry of Agriculture (MOA) and Ministry of Education together recently launched the "Training Plan for New Type Professional Farmers." This init...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

The heavy pressure on the Black Sea market last week was driven by the multinational trading houses after the collapse of the futures' markets in the U.S...

India’s Election Result and the Global Phosphates Market

The prospect of a new government with a strong economic agenda has recently helped the INR recoup some of its losses, which could result in improved afford...

The Issue of Rail Logistics

The situation in Canada is far worse than in the U.S., and all of this has prompted much talk about how long the logistical problems will last. Some are ev...

Reorganizing USDA for Trade

Given the importance and volatility of non-tariff trade barrier issues, the catalyst behind the reorganization was the need to have a central trade authori...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Mr.Narendra Modi, known to be very pro-technology, is expected to be India's new prime minister with the predicted landslide victory for the Hindu-dominate...

More Things to Keep You Up at Night

This late spring will result in fewer corn acres across the Northern Plains. North Dakota, for example, was expected to plant 2.95 million acres of corn in...

Dying for Rice; Faithless; Naked Tommy

It is hard to complain after pondering the conditions in North Korea where it is reported that Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un has ordered up some reforms in ag...

Market Commentary

November soybean futures were again about the only agricultural commodity to trade on the plus side today. China said it will sell 300,000 MT of soybeans f...

New Farm Program: Choices Ahead

Congress made a number of significant changes to crop support programs with the Agricultural Act of 2014, and farmers must make a one-time enrollment choic...

The Market’s Next Task

For the past three years, strong market prices were needed to encourage sufficient crop production to meet growing demand. The next task for the market to...

Killing; Disclosure; El Niño

There is a very vocal opposition to TTIP in Europe, and politics will shift further against it when EU Parliament elections next week likely empower more p...

Second BSE Case in Brazil

The cow was born on a farm it never left and where animals are fed by pasture grazing and mineral salts, rather than manufactured feed. Korea, Egypt, Peru...

Market Commentary

Good wheat crop prospects elsewhere, the lack of demand from importers and lower offers from Black Sea sellers seem to have overcome the impact of the drou...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Oilseed Highlights

Lieutenant General Mi Zhenyu, former deputy director of the Chinese Academy of Military Science, recently wrote that the inclusion of soybean protein from...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Shipments of Argentine soybeans are quite delayed this season due to a late harvest, quality issues and problems in the port of Necochea that limit the dra...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Ukrainian Minister of  Agrarian Policy and Food Ihor Shvaika met with EU commissioners on 13 May to discuss trade-related issues and further developme...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Trade Policy Angles

One has to greatly sympathize with the conclusions reached by Copa-Cogeca, Europe's central farm organization, that the EU Commission's pursuit of a trade...

Market Commentary

Grains seemed neglected during the overnight session as witnessed by a very light trading volume. After a slow and mixed start, the day session saw more tr...

U.S.-Korea FTA Under Fire with Implications for TPP

Four Democratic members of the House of Representatives issued a press release criticizing the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) regarding numbers related t...

Demand is the Thing

The world's combined ending stocks of wheat, corn and soybeans are projected to be almost 88 MMT greater than they were just two years prior. Said another...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

The trade reports that Egypt's payment for government-purchased grains is slowing significantly with delays in opening letters of credit for tender purchas...

Market Commentary

It was Turnaround Tuesday for the corn and soy complex futures markets as prices rebounded from yesterday's sinking spell. The turnaround began during the...

Oilseed Highlights

Farmers in northern Argentina evidently have found a way of avoiding the nation's 35 percent export tax by smuggling their soybeans into neighboring Paragu...

HFT is Manageable

At today's Senate Agriculture Committee hearing, even Andrei Kirilenko, the former CFTC chief economist and now MIT professor brought in to critique HFT, o...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Reality; Over-Certified; Amish

Policymakers in recent years have sought ways to offset the market's tendency toward commoditization in agriculture and thus raise farmer income by extract...

China In-Country Analysis

China's auction of state temporary soybean reserves will begin 13 May 2014, according to official sources, and it is estimated that the size will reach 3 M...

Market Commentary

Evidently, the funds that have been long decided to start liquidating some of that length following last Friday's USDA reports as well as what appears to b...

Show Me the Weather

It looks from here like wheat might have the tightest fundamentals going into MY 2014/15. Weather's impact on feed grains production (either negative or po...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

For the moment, the trend of increasing quality that was observed in the Bulgarian and Romanian wheat crop during the past five years will be reversed as f...

Court Rejects Challenge to 2013 Biofuels Mandate

At issue were whether EPA set the 2013 RVOs too late to be valid, a precedent that will have implications for this year, and if both the overall and advanc...

Sugar Antidumping Case against Mexico

The Department of Commerce initiated an investigation last month to determine if the Mexican government has subsidized the country's sugar production and w...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

India's milk production is declining, and prices are rising with the approach of summer when demand typically increases. Stocks of skimmed milk powder (SMP...

Good News, and More of the Same

It doesn't happen often, but it looks like Democrats and Republicans in the Senate and the House will be sending a reauthorization of the Water Resources R...

May USDA WASDE

USDA's total U.S. wheat production estimate came in below what the trade was expecting. We also note that USDA's hard red winter wheat production estimate...

Market Commentary

Corn and wheat markets were lower and soybeans mixed in very light overnight trading volume ahead of this morning's USDA reports. In spite of a bearish new...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Truth in Labeling

Consumer Reports has now found that 81 percent of those surveyed believe the organic label means that no pesticides were used in production, which is erron...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

China Stockpiling Pork

China's fresh pork prices are at their lowest point since September 2010 and down 19 percent from September of last year. As a result, the Chinese National...

Oilseed Highlights

The soybean surplus on the Chinese market will apparently worsen beginning next week as Sinograins announced today that it will auction 300,000 MT of soybe...

Market Commentary

Overnight trade was mixed with soybeans trying to reverse this week's downward trend, while wheat and corn were a little weaker. The day session saw simila...

Issues and Questions

While the May WASDE provides a first look at USDA's analytical insights for the following crop year, it seems the remainder of each old crop year can no lo...

Diversity; Trade Policy Curiosities

Whatever was discussed between Japanese Prime Minister Abe and U.S. President Obama a few days ago becomes more curious by the day. Diversity Marketing Pla...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russia's annual report covering food safety has noted that measures taken by the government to stabilize the situation in agriculture will result in genera...

Market Commentary

Based on anecdotal evidence, it seems likely that next Monday's USDA report should show corn planting progress reaching close to 60 percent, or even more,...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Chinese crushers have returned to demand soybeans from South America. Following two months of inactivity and desperate attempts to resell cargoes of prior...

Market Commentary

Unlike last year, soybean bulls are getting no help whatsoever from the cash market. Soybean crushers are relaxed, and export demand has fallen to a trickl...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Ag Review: Commentary on Opportunities in Agriculture

Opportunity: Complementarity The TTIP negotiations are an opportunity, despite the skepticism. The challenge is overcoming all of the pitfalls and finding...

Trade Deficit and Energy

Energy is one of the most interesting aspects of the U.S. balance of payments account. Higher energy production in the U.S. is transforming the nation's tr...

Free Riders: Bali, Aid, Beef

African trade ministers have apparently decided to act like Cape buffalo with a decision last week that reverses their commitment at the WTO ministerial in...

Wheat Market Conundrum

The U.S. wheat futures markets are facing a dilemma. Should they price the relatively bullish wheat supply/demand balance, or the relatively bearish world...

Oilseed Highlights

The U.S. cottonseed shortage has been exacerbated by the nation's dairy and cattle feeding sectors' continued strong demand for its usage in direct feeding...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

Wheat farmers in Kenya are very concerned because of an outbreak of wheat stem rust. No control for this type of wheat rust exists as it was first seen in...

China In-Country Analysis

China's milk powder imports reached a record-high 109,000 MT in March as AQSIQ recently announced that imported milk products without labels in Chinese are...

Anti; Mysteries; Shorts; and Surveys

France is insisting that if the EU does not invoke a ban on imports of hogs and pork as a result of the Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea Virus (PEDv), it will uni...

Market Commentary

It was the record-high temperatures and strong winds across the Southern Plains over the weekend that rallied wheat markets. Some weather forecasters were...

More Things to Keep You Up at Night

Stats Canada released its quarterly stocks estimates this morning, and today's numbers again highlighted the magnitude of Canada's 2013 crop production. S...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Legislative Agenda for the Year

There are only about 40 scheduled days of legislative session left for the remaining 2014 legislative calendar. That leaves the Congressional schedule very...

South America Highlights

Current economic dynamics in Brazil and Argentina are creating some opportunities for the agricultural sectors in both Uruguay and Paraguay. Brazil The Bra...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

The EU temporary ban on imports of select Indian fruit and vegetables could have wide implications for a variety of other produce subject to the same quara...

Expanding the Foodie Concept

Recognizing the intellectual superiority of small, local and organic over conventionally-produced foods, a new initiative will seek to mimic the approach i...

Tokenism; Fishy; Man Bites Dog

Members of Congress have demanded that Japan agree to zero tariffs on agricultural products, but they apparently will not be getting their wish. Tokenism E...

U.S. HRW Wheat Crop Collapsing

The smallest HRW production number going all the way back more than 45 years was 620 million bushels in 2002, although It's not likely we can see a disaste...

Market Commentary

Wheat had a great deal of bullish news today, which started with the Kansas crop tour results. General Comments Markets were slightly higher in quiet overn...

Economy Poised for Second Quarter Growth in 2014

Consumer spending was unusually strong as it surged 0.9 percent in March, the largest gain since 2005 with the exception of one month in 2009. The release...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Oilseed Highlights

The government of China recently issued its first official Agricultural Outlook Report, covering the period 2014-2023. Among other projections in the repor...

What is Meant

European Commission President José Durâo Barroso is in Washington, and his message is that the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) agreem...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Market Commentary

Given what was happening with soybeans and corn, today's price break by CME wheat seemed about in line, and KC HRW's losses actually appear rather modest...

Old Perceptions and New Perceptions

It occurs to us that if nothing else, the flipping of the calendar page to May will force a re-examination of the perceptions that directed the market's pr...

State of the Livestock Industry

Trade was a major topic covered by most of the witnesses testifying at yesterday's hearing held by the Livestock, Rural Development and Credit subcommittee...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Argentina remains largely out of the global soybean market as exporters are not offering beans with regular quality (basis 34 percent, minimum 34.5 percent...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Prices for the 2014 Russian grain harvest are expected to be influenced equally by both political and climate-related factors. Due to the pending holidays,...

Market Commentary

Wheat futures prices, led by KC HRW, responded to pessimistic reports from the Plains HRW crop tour and little sign of drought relief in the offing. Genera...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Policy Shorts

U.S. House Ways & Means Trade Subcommittee Chair David Nunes (R-California) warned today that if President Obama fails to compel Congressional passage...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Welfare; Betrayal; Externalities

If one believes the organic industry, it produces more ethical food that is safer and more nutritious. Some in the organic community now want to incorporat...

HFCS Trends: Red Bull a Bear for Corn Sweetener

Energy drinks were a $350 million market in 2000 and reached about $9 billion in 2013, a 2,471 percent growth. Red Bull is the category's market leader.Bac...

Oilseed Highlights

Two organizations in India have concluded that the country should focus on increasing the use of soybeans to alleviate protein malnutrition, rather than ex...

Corn’s Changing Dynamics

The plain fact is that we all missed the pent-up corn demand and end user stock building, inspired by the low harvest time prices that seemed very attracti...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

Farmers in Zimbabwe continue to be unhappy with the government's set purchase price for local corn that is said to be about $30/MT lower than the cost of p...

Market Commentary

The Kansas crop tour got underway this morning, and the first report from the tour popped KC wheat futures to double-digit gains. General Comments Markets...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

The general perception in the market is that the wheat is overpriced due to the high political risk premium now included since the start of the Ukrainian/R...

Ignoring the Valuable; Biotech Labeling Retort

Given that 70 percent of processed food in the U.S. may contain at least one ingredient from food biotechnology, there are at least three constitutional la...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Food Aid Is Secondary Priority of Food Aid Programs

According to some policymakers, the requirement that aid be sent on U.S.-flagged vessels might be the most important issue.The White House has long ma...

China In-Country Analysis

While the long-term fundamentals suggest that the ongoing westernization of China's diet should lead to increased imports of soybeans, corn and pork, the c...

Market Commentary

After a sharply higher early overnight trade, grain and soy futures gradually calmed down to finish the first trading session of the week in relatively pla...

Stats Canada Acreage Data

There is some concern that western Canadian farmers' planting plans are still in flux because the spring season has been so slow to arrive.Stats Canada rel...

Notes from Asia

The real story from Asia continues to be the expansion of the middle class and how that will continue to drive demand for everything from agricultural comm...

Trade Trumped; Greek Spin; Cow Poop; Etc.

Given that free trade is about unleashing economic comparative advantage, there is much to worry about in Greek agriculture. Security Trumps Business, Agai...

Market Commentary

Markets were mixed in very light volume throughout most of the night session, but the tone gradually changed for several reasons. General Comments Markets...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Cellulosic Ethanol May Not Reduce Emissions

There was another blow to the cellulosic mandate this week as well as a new study challenging the notion that advanced biofuels reduce greenhouse gas emiss...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

With the IMD predicting a 56 percent probability of a deficient or below-normal monsoon for India, the impact on the farm sector and the country's overall...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Oilseed Highlights

Today it was confirmed that three employees of Marubeni's Columbia Grain subsidiary were arrested in China. Although it is believed to be soy-related, the...

Possible Brazilian Mad Cow Case

This potential case could be similar to a 2012 incident in Parana where an animal developed the prion, or abnormal, pathogenic agents that induce folding o...

Too High or Too Low

When we or anyone says that a particular market price is too high or too low, it may sound like we are saying that the market is wrong even though the mark...

Trade Truth; Middle East, Commodities

Turning public opinion into a supportive force that can overcome special interests will require political leadership in Washington, Brussels, Tokyo and man...

Market Commentary

After some overnight weakness, prices at all three wheat futures markets rallied to post double-digit gains. The apparent worsening situation in Ukraine an...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russia exported 194,800 MT of sunflower oil in March 2014 (a 5 percent gain compared to February 2014 and 48 percent more than March 2013), the highest&nbs...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Trade Convulsions; Reorg

The EU wants the U.S. Congress to pass Trade Promotion Authority (TPA) as soon as possible, but the European resistance to fixing current trade barriers is...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Argentina is not as affected as Brazil by the Chinese soybean situation, but its beans have been found to have quality problems that could be a reason for...

Market Commentary

Signs indicate that demand for old crop corn remains brisk, and corn exports are holding to a level that appears to justify USDA's latest estimate of 1.75...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Foreign Assistance: Unneeded Advice

Indeed, it is hundreds of U.S. domestic programs that fail the government's Program Assessment Rating Tool (PART), but continue to be funded.Experts gather...

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