Today the Argentine government finally assigned the wheat export quota among the main trading houses as its conflict continues with farmers regarding polic...
Articles
Market Commentary
The day session saw a more decisive downdraft for grain and soy prices. Support from the cash meal market seems to be in rapid decline. Without that suppor...
TPA Odds; Immigration Ag
At least two top Washington political analysts in the past two days have acknowledged that Trade Promotion Authority (TPA) is as likely as any legislation...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russia harvested 109.9 MMT of grain in bunker weight as of 18 November. Included were 62.2 MMT of wheat (2.61 MT/hectare), 21.2 MMT of barley (2.35 MT/hect...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
The overnight session saw grain and soy prices mixed and the trading volume notably less than Sunday's overnight session. However, there was no doubt about...
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
According to the FAO, Egypt's 2014/15 grain imports will drop by about 1 MMT against last year, but the total is still approximately 1 MMT greater than the...
Help Unlikely; Likely Helped
Intervention by President Obama seems highly unlikely, but 61 agricultural groups have nonetheless written to him asking that he intercede in the protracte...
The Soymeal Crunch of 2014
U.S. soybean processors crushed an estimated 150 million bushels during October, a record for the month. However, the limited availability of railroad equi...
Senate to Vote on Keystone XL Pipeline
The new Republican-controlled Senate in the upcoming 114th Congress was expected to pass the legislation approving the permit. However, the current lame-du...
Oilseed Highlights
One of the countries often overlooked as a market for soybeans is Turkey. However, it is one of the world's fastest-growing markets for soy as it expands i...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
Last Friday's collapse in soybeans and soymeal wasn't enough to discourage the bulls who bought early Sunday evening and again the last half of today's ses...
International Economic Roundup
There have been a number of economic developments in countries across the globe that along with other factors are impacting the value of the U.S. dollar.Th...
Positives and Negatives
The announcement by Japanese Prime Minister Shinzö Abe that he intends to postpone the next 20 percent installment in the consumption tax and call for snap...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
The adverse weather in Bulgaria, Romania and Serbia is delaying the corn harvest with about 30 percent left to be completed. Additionally, the domestic log...
China In-Country Analysis
China is seeking to increase corn imports from Europe with 36,700 MT arriving last week from Bulgaria, the first bulk shipment of non-GM corn since t...
More Things to Keep You Up at Night
Shuttle rail freight costs in the aftermarket have totally collapsed in the last few weeks. Shuttle trains were trading at a $4,000-5,000 per car premium j...
The Corn Loan Now in Play
Cash corn prices to the farmer today are generally between $3.00-3.50/bushel. There are a few reasons why farmers will be reluctant to part with more corn...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Corn arrivals have started in Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Telangana and Maharashtra, but the prices farmers are receiving are not in accordance with the gov...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
It has been another tumultuous week in the soy complex with new highs for this recent rally established on significant fund buying. However, when all was s...
Congress Organizes
Yesterday the Republican and Democratic caucuses held their leadership votes for the upcoming 114th Congress, and the next step is to select chairmen and r...
Backwards Europe; Big Data
Environmentalists are hailing policy moves to rid Europe of the scourge of biotechnology, but now some member states have upset them by seeking expedited a...
Russia Upping Pork Broiler Bans
The Russian Federal Veterinary and Phyto-Sanitary Oversight Service (Rosselkhoznadzor) is planning to ban the importation of Canadian pork effective tomorr...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Oilseed Highlights
Dow AgroSciences has decided to not release its Enlist soybeans for commercial production in order to prevent the soybeans from getting mixed in cargoes de...
Market Commentary
Today was another active trading day, and there seems to be a growing consensus among market participants that current price levels could last in the soy c...
India; Extortion; Unorthodox
Europe and Japan are in a funk and lamenting that orthodox macroeconomic measures have failed to provide the stimulus needed to spur growth. Now it is bein...
Frustration, Impatience and Delusions
Commercials and non-commercials trading any commodity futures market are united by an interest in the direction of price movements in both the short and lo...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
The Ukrainian sea ports shipped 25.946 MMT of grain cargos during January-October 2013, 43.7 percent more than during the same period in 2013. 666,500 MT o...
Market Commentary
That prices across the board swung in such wide ranges today is a clear sign of excitement and emotion as is today's huge volume that may have come close t...
Slew of Fallacies; Twists and Erroneous Intuitions
Artificially suppressing a country's currency exchange rate in order to boost exports and local employment has been the game of mercantilists for many year...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Monday's neutral WASDE report generally surprised South American traders. Most trading houses held short positions at the CBOT, but the unexpected strength...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
USDA Opens Comment Period on Second Beef Checkoff
This new checkoff would be authorized by the Commodity Promotion, Research, and Consumer Information Act of 1996, also known as the Generic Act, and the co...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy futures trade was subdued overnight with limited price action. After trading on both sides, corn and soybeans finished the overnight session...
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
Turkey's poultry industry is benefiting greatly from the Russian ban on EU imports with a jump in its poultry meat exports from approximately 50 MT per mon...
Now Demand is the Question
With the fall harvest in its closing stages and production and total volumes of available corn and soybean supplies closely established, the market's atten...
Southern States a Substantial Contributor to Record U.S. Soybean Crop
One factor that has not received a great deal of attention is how much Southern states have contributed to the increase in U.S. soybean production in recen...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
What Will Be the Agenda of the 114th Congress?
Perhaps the marquee issue for the new Republican majority will be the repeal or majorly reform of the Affordable Care Act, aka Obamacare. There will also b...
China In-Country Analysis
China's domestic soybean crush rate is estimated to have fallen below 45 percent during the week of 3 November due to the limited volume of soybean shipmen...
Absence and Awkwardness; Next Farm Bill
India is not a member of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) group of 21 economies, and consequently its version of events surrounding the Bali Ag...
USDA November Reports Neutral to Supportive
Today's November USDA crop production estimates and supply and demand revisions were not as bearish as many analysts were expecting. USDA made no adjustmen...
Market Commentary
Markets were quiet in the Sunday night session with small losses in corn and wheat and small gains in soybeans. That trend continued when today's session o...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
Soybean futures traded both sides of unchanged until the last hour or so of the session when they turned decidedly higher. Meanwhile, corn was weak overnig...
More on U.S. Soybean Exports
U.S. soybean sales are up more than 1 MMT from last year at this time. More importantly, while the market continues to expect China to slow total purchases...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Russia has expanded its economic footprints in India, an old ally, after the imposition of sanctions by the U.S. and its Western allies. The importation of...
Endangered; No Proof Needed; TPP Progress
Farmers in the U.S. live in fear that a threatened or endangered species will be found on their property and adversely affect their operations. Now a feder...
Lame Duck Session Next Week
The obvious "must-do" action item is the continuing resolution (CR) to fund the government as the appropriations bill that Congress cobbled together last y...
Just a Few Odd Thoughts
With the November WASDE ahead and the midterm election behind us, we have had a few oddball and mostly unconnected thoughts that we will pass on for whatev...
Broiler/Pork Expansion Impact on Beef
While cattle supplies remain tight, broilers are continuing to expand in both numbers and in heavier weights. Pork production is also expected to increase...
Ag Review: The Harvest Issue
Bleak Harvest Ahead The world grain market may be headed into a bear trend due to burgeoning supplies, but a review of the policy seeds that have been sown...
More Politics; Exports; Regulations
Just hours after a major U.S. election outcome, sparks are flying over future U.S. policy direction with House Republicans warning President Obama not to t...
Market Commentary
Soybean futures bounced around on both sides of yesterday's closes in nearly a 30-cent trading range before settling about 7-9 cents higher. Corn futures p...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Oilseed Highlights
As expected, today's USDA export sales report showed a net reduction in U.S. soymeal export sales as a result of cancellations and switches to other origin...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Due to rising concern among buyers, limited offer from sellers and rumors about the poor condition of winter crops, prices on the Russian domestic market i...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
The lack of U.S. dollars is a serious issue for the Argentine government. As a result, it has released 500,000 MT of old crop corn and 400,000 MT of old cr...
Election Recap
Yesterday's midterm congressional election that resulted in Republican control of both the House and Senate also has implications for both chambers' agricu...
Market Commentary
After being weaker overnight and in the first half of the day session, corn and soy futures bounced off session lows to close higher despite the U.S. dolla...
Biotech Labeling; Bearish Markets; Trade Agreements
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) has unleashed its latest effort to spark inflation and thus economic growth, while negotiating partners in the Trans-Pacific Partne...
PredictIt; Oxymorons and Cowards; Actually Okay
The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) gave approval to a new prediction market, but revealed its bias toward politics, non-profits and unive...
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
Egypt's plans to become a central grain hub for North Africa and the Middle East have apparently been accelerated with the government indicating that all p...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy prices opened the overnight session weaker, which carried over into the day session. Traders are concerned about what might happen if the H7N...
Oilseed Highlights
DuPont Pioneer India last week opened a crop research center in Hyderabad, India to develop new crop varieties for that country's agricultural sector. The...
The Guessing Game Again
When there have been month-over-month increases in yield and production estimates through October, history suggests that the odds strongly favor a further...
Gasoline Prices to Continue Decline
Brent prices are now the lowest they have been since late 2010, before violence in Libya and other areas in the Middle East and North Africa disrupted sign...
China In-Country Analysis
China's domestic crushers and traders seem to be welcoming the potential soybean shortage for the next month in order to reverse the profitability issues e...
Ballot Initiatives of Interest to Agriculture
Tuesday is Election Day, and a number of down ballot issues of interest to agriculture will be voted on tomorrow including four related to GMOs. Tomorrow...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Asynchronous; Just Because
Recognizing that the jump from conventional agriculture to "pure" organic is a large one, the EU has allowed numerous derogations from the original concept...
Market Commentary
Wheat withstood the weakness in soybeans and corn today and actually traded steady to slightly higher much of the session. The relative strength was likely...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
The Black Sea corn market was firmer last week, although not precisely following the CBOT futures rally. Ukrainian corn is offered at $177/MT FOB for Novem...
How About That Soybean Demand
The domestic soymeal demand has been blamed for the recent strong rally in soybeans and soymeal futures. That has certainly been part of the driving force,...
Market Commentary
The volatility in the soybean and soymeal markets continued last night and today. Corn did manage to rally to slight gains when the soy complex was surging...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
In a bid to incentivize farmers, the government of India (GOI) has announced an increase in the Minimum Support Price (MSP) for several of the 2014/15 wint...
How Does the Value of the U.S. Dollar Impact the U.S. Economy?
The U.S. dollar has been on a bull ride of late, especially against the currency of some of our most important trading partners.The U.S. dollar has been on...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Big Data; COOL; Survey
Producer groups want the Obama administration to simply appeal the WTO Dispute Settlement Panel's (DSP) decision that the U.S. country-of-origin labeling (...
More Things to Keep You Up at Night
The U.S. rail shuttle freight market, at least the BNSF, seems to be softening. If the weakness in shuttle rates stays, it should mean that interior basis...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
MSP Raised for Key CropsIn a bid to incentivize farmers, the government of India (GOI) has announced an increase in the Minimum Support Price (MSP) for sev...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Oilseed Highlights
Today's USDA Export Sales Report indicated U.S. exporters once again had a big week selling soybeans with a total 1.326 MMT. That was down by 39 percent fr...
Silly; USTR Falters; Just Checking
The EU has not approved a new biotech trait all year, and it was hoped that the outgoing Commission membership would at least move forward on two cottonsee...
Market Commentary
The overnight session saw grain and soy prices trade modestly higher in relatively slow action. However, after three days of higher closes, the markets pau...
Cattle on Feed
The dynamics between fed cattle marketings and placements are analyzed with their implications for next quarters' beef demand and pricing. Feedlot turnover...
Tricks and Treats
In a strange way, the approach of Halloween turns our attention to the current state of grain and soy markets here in the U.S. Twisting the spirit of "Tric...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Ukraine has exported 11.237 MMT of grain as of 27 October 2014 and from the beginning of MY 2014/15. Included were 6.27 MMT of wheat, 1.624 MMT of corn, 3...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
A meeting was held Monday between Argentine exporters and government officials. Exporters were expecting the release of 4 MMT of corn and 2 MMT of wheat fo...
Market Commentary
Corn and wheat were pulled along by the soy complex, although corn could build its own demand story from last week's ethanol production that averaged 937,0...
Sugar Impact; Biotech; Balkanization
The state-by-state biotech labeling campaigns by technology opponents undermine the federal preemption on food marketing, and now the same is happening to...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Fun with Export Sales Numbers
U.S. corn exports deviation from historic patterns has implications for what exports will be in the rest of the marketing year. Analysis of unshipped corn...
U.S. and Mexico Reach Deal on Sugar Case
The U.S. Department of Commerce yesterday announced that it had reached preliminary terms with Mexico and its sugar exporters. If these are finalized, it w...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Oilseed Highlights
Yesterday's USDA reports showed much progress was made last week in harvesting the U.S. soybean crop. Illinois, Missouri, Indiana, Ohio, Kentucky and Kansa...
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
Iran's government announced that it will be working with the FAO to improve domestic wheat and barley production. While some say that the country is approa...
Market Commentary
Overnight strength carried over into the day session amid active volume. December corn continued to march ahead, while it was another volatile session for...
Argentina is Still a Mess
There is some question regarding whether as many total acres of all crops in Argentina will be planted as expected with the low prices, high input costs an...
China In-Country Analysis
China's feed price remains low as a result of the declining domestic corn price and flat soymeal price, which boosts the livestock industry's profitability...
Market Commentary
Markets were soft overnight with corn and wheat 2-4 cents lower and soybeans down as much as 8-9 cents when the night session closed. That weakness evapora...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Ukrainian corn remains the least expensive origin for Asian buyers. However, the competitive advantage versus South American and U.S. PNW corn is only $2-5...
World Roundup
USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack will help host December's U.S.-China Joint Commission on Commerce and Trade in Chicago. This will be an excellent opportunity fo...
Brazil and Uruguay Elections
Brazil saw President Dilma Rousseff win a narrow victory over challenger Senator Aecio Neves, while Uruguay is headed to a runoff on 30 November in an elec...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
It is still too early to estimate India's sugar production because many mills have yet to begin crushing operations in Uttar Pradesh as there is a stalemat...
Policy Potpourri
The EPA's approval this summer of two new pathways for generating cellulosic ethanol led directly to the August explosion in cellulosic production an...
The Soybean Outlook Stays Bearish into 2015/16
The soybean outlook continues to have a negative picture unless there is a significant production problem in South America this season or a big soybean yie...
Market Commentary
Yesterday's weekly soybean export sales number of nearly 2 MMT was the last straw that took futures briefly back above $10.00. Wheat futures seemed to sit...
Enviro Snippets; Marketing; Sunday
Agriculture contributes 10 percent of Europe's carbon emissions, and a Commission study indicates that the farming sector could meet a 28 percent reduction...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Squeeze on Hamburger
The current small herd means pressures on producers for herd expansion, which means less culling and a lower cow slaughter. This has the potential to...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy markets were mixed overnight amid lighter volume than has been seen the past several overnight sessions. However, the day session was anythin...
Oilseed Highlights
Reports out of Brazil indicate a deal still has not been reached between exporting companies and Monsanto regarding the collection of royalties on its inse...
Index Funds Are Still Here
The last two or three years have been tough on commodity index funds. Most have lost money. However, rightly or wrongly, index funds are promoted as long-t...
TPP Signs; Never Enough
Over 170 people signed up for a presentation yesterday in Washington on the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) negotiations. As presenter Gary Horlick observe...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
The forecast for Russia's 2014 grain production has been lowered as a result of unfavorable weather conditions in areas of the country that have impacted t...
TPP Timing; Hurdles
The U.S. and Japan have reportedly resumed negotiations on agriculture at this week's Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) meeting in Canberra. However, Tokyo w...
Market Commentary
Most grain and soy contracts held onto gains until the latter stages of the day session when buying interest slackened and hedge selling began to take over...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
During the last campaign, Brazil exported 4.4 MMT of soybeans in February 2014 (3.8 MMT to China) versus 960,000 MT in February 2013. The upcoming campaign...
Outlooks; Fooled
U.S. EPA will likely announce its final Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) blend requirement after next month's election. Had the Obama administration wished to...
Oilseed Highlights
The 2014 crop year was an exceptional one for rapeseed in the EU-28. Total production this year is estimated at 23.93 MMT by Oil World and 23.5 MMT by USDA...
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
Grain traders in Iran have been quietly buying corn supplies in Black Sea markets with trade estimates that about 120,000 MT have been purchased. Prices ar...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Markets In Search of Guidance
Global economic uncertainties are likely to continue, and they will influence commodity markets including grain and soy periodically. However, many of the...
Will WTO Ruling “COOL” Ethanol Exports?
Yesterday's WTO ruling regarding the updated implementing rule for the U.S. country-of-origin labeling (COOL) law could have implications for U.S. den...
Market Commentary
It was another "Turnaround Tuesday" for grain and soy futures markets. Prices gained modestly overnight in relatively light volume. The gains were limited...
China In-Country Analysis
Indications are that soybean shipments to China in October have been steadily declining. Part of the reason is a short-term drop in demand due to the seaso...
Talking About 2015 Already?
We are seeing a number of analysts telling producers they ought to be selling not just 2015 production, but also some 2016 production. This does seem very...
Market Commentary
It seemed like we were back to trading big yields and excellent corn and soybean harvest weather today, not fund short covering or rebalancing. U.S. financ...
COOL Rule Issued by WTO: U.S. Must Comply
Today's decree essentially found that the implementing rule does provide less favorable treatment for Canadian and Mexican livestock, but stopped short of...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Wheat exports from Germany, Poland and the Baltic states are higher than a year ago. However, they are significantly slower from France (the biggest EU pro...
Advocacy
Ethanol proponents' rebuttal to the California Air Resource Board's (CARB's) proposed indirect land use calculation (ILUC) offers both a sharp tongue about...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
The weekly export sales report released today wasn't enough to hold the market together as selling pressure started to mount in the soy complex, and there...
Those Pesky Funds Keep Buying Soybeans
This week saw aggressive fund buying in the absence of any significant hedge selling, and prices went up instead of down. The strength during harvest likel...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
While India's poultry industry is against any trade of U.S. poultry meat, the general view is that such imports will be of low volume and not harmful to th...
Drones in Agriculture
Although farmers are currently unable to fly over crop fields or pastureland to capture pictures or video of anything that would be sold commercially, ther...
Market Commentary
Outside markets displayed a relatively calmer tone today. Grain and soy futures traded rather quietly, and prices were mixed during the overnight session w...
Two Beef Checkoffs?
USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack has declared that he will initiate a new beef checkoff that will operate side-by-side with the current version. Checkoff revenue...
Red Line for India; U.S.-China FTA
A few days ago, Indian officials dropped the hint that they were in negotiations in Geneva for a permanent "due restraint" agreement, allowing them to oper...
Farm Bill Fun and Games
Whenever it becomes time for Congress to create a new farm bill (technically, to amend the 1938 and 1949 legislation), we are amazed by the number of diver...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Oilseed Highlights
NOPA's monthly soybean crush report, which was released yesterday, indicated soyoil stocks at the end of September totaled 936.88 million pounds (424,965 M...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Market experts indicate that 26 percent of the total 2014 Ukrainian wheat harvest is of milling quality. In addition, approximately 36 percent of the milli...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
In Paraguay almost 70 percent of the wheat crop is already harvested with very good quality. This is a little surprising because there were some excessive...
Sugar; Dead; Abe’s Call; Foreigners
Mexican Economy Secretary Ildefonso Guajardo is threatening to challenge the U.S. sugar program in the WTO, but the American sugar industry is likely...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
The November soybean price swung between 14 cents higher and 14 cents lower before closing down 12.25 cents at $9.525. Non-commercials have been shrinking...
Corn’s Updated Outlook
It is widely assumed that the November WASDE estimates for corn yield and production will likely be larger than October's. This assumption will grow strong...
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
Egypt is considering a free trade zone with Russia, Kazakhstan and Belarus, also known as the Eurasian Economic Union. This would allow for increased expor...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Oilseed Highlights
Now that we have entered MY 2014/15, it is worthwhile to once again realize just how dominant China is as the main driver of global demand for soybeans and...
Group Urges President Obama to Address Biotech And Trade with China
In its letter to President Obama, the U.S. Biotech Crop Alliance cited serious challenges to trade because of an unpredictable framework for approvals of n...
Sino-Russia; U.S. Dollar; Chicken
China may in some ways favor Russia, but it has been ambivalent about the situation in Crimea. More importantly, it will buy Russian energy and opportunist...
Market Commentary
Wheat futures prices closed 4-6 cents higher due almost entirely to the influence of the other markets. Last week's mediocre inspections show that wheat ex...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Farm Bill Rewrite; TPA Trips TPP
The brand new, only partially-deployed 2014 Farm Bill may have to be rewritten as the outlook for commodity prices is substantially lower than the one used...
WASDE: Pork to Surpass Beef Production
This most recent estimate is founded on expanding pig production, higher farrowing intentions for the last quarter of 2014 into 2015 and a more rapid forec...
Malting Barley Prices on the Rise
Prices appear set to make a move higher, following a smaller-than-expected crop production coupled with some significant quality problems.Malting barley pr...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
The EU wheat (French, German and Baltic, etc.) remains more competitive for most destinations versus Russian and Ukrainian origins. Russia's remaining surp...
China In-Country Analysis
China's Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) recently released the revised Measures for Overseas Investment Management, intended to encourage more Chinese compani...
Market Commentary
Corn started to move reluctantly higher with the rally in soybeans, but advanced up sharply at mid-morning. There was little news around to excite the whea...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Corn prices in India have been moving lower over the past few weeks with no sign that the downslide is likely to stop. An end to this bearish trend will re...
Rio Grande; GSP
Mexico is reportedly demanding completion of a suspension agreement with the U.S. on antidumping and countervailing duty cases involving sugar by the end o...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
USDA Reports Not as Bearish as Expected
The markets have been anxiously waiting for today's USDA yield and production estimates for corn and soybeans since the September report was released. Near...
New Chairman for House Agriculture Committee
Assuming the Republicans maintain their majority in the House, there will be a number of committee gavels to pass. This includes the House Agriculture Comm...
Market Commentary
It was a topsy-turvy day in the markets both before and after the release of USDA's October reports. Volume in corn and soybeans was very large. Wheat volu...
Don’t Plant; Yuan Shock
Bloomberg reports that China plans to globalize its currency by allowing its citizens to invest abroad and permitting Chinese companies to sell yuan-denomi...
Feed Additives Future
With Europe's ban on antibiotic usage for growth promotion in livestock and new voluntary standards in the U.S., the antibiotic share of the feed additive...
The Looming Struggle for Exports
A sizeable portion of increased global supplies will be in the hands of exporting countries. The U.S., Canada, Brazil, Argentina, the EU, Russia, Australia...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Oilseed Highlights
The Argentine government claims that farmers and exporters are holding as much as 21-22 MMT of stocks as a hedge against inflation, which it considers fina...
Market Commentary
Corn futures swung back and forth before winding up with modest gains of less than 2 cents. Wheat prices at all three markets clocked double-digit losses t...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Ukraine is reported to have produced a record volume of vegetable oil in MY 2013/14. Its share of the global market has been rising for seven years and rea...
Payoffs; Currency Irresolved
Coming on the heels of an announcement that American taxpayers are subsidizing rich Brazilian cotton growers with over $800 million, it has been revealed t...
Market Commentary
The stealthy wheat market has staged a technical "adjustment." Chicago wheat futures have mirrored the corn market by closing higher for the last six tradi...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
A question in the Brazilian soybean market has become, "Which will have more pressure to drop – the port premiums or the paper in Paranagua?" Most likely,...
Oilseed Highlights
The Argentine government is reportedly considering the establishment of a national grain company to compete with multinational exporting firms. Argen...
Never Sell a Dull Market
Why have grain and soy markets broken out of their dull mode and rallied so sharply with the October WASDE now only three days away?Grain and soy futures o...
Market Commentary
Today it was wheat's turn to lead the rally, and it did so in style. All three wheat markets spent most of the day session preening with double-digit gains...
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
Officials in Egypt are stating that wheat imports in 2015 will drop by 50 percent to 4-4.5 MMT. However, most experts there don't expect any serious declin...
Ag Lawsuits
There have been developments in a few major legal issues relating to agriculture that have unfolded in the past several days, and the final resolutions of...
Ag Review: The Policy Implications of 2014
Policy for the Rest of 2014 The upcoming U.S. election is occurring amidst geopolitical upheaval and macroeconomic malaise, but there is a pan-Pacific poli...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
China In-Country Analysis
Although the Chinese government has launched a new media campaign to educate and promote the safety of GM agricultural commodities, a quick review of China...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
The market in Romania and Bulgaria is very quiet. Farmers are still holding a large volume of wheat, but they prefer to wait for higher prices later in the...
Brazilian Election: Who is Aecio Neves?
Senator Aecio Neves trailed far behind Marina Silva and President Dilma Rousseff early in the campaign, but placed second in Brazil's presidential election...
The Mystery Rally
There was no unexpected export business around or any adverse weather forecast that could have been the cause. This would seem to be a good old-fashioned s...
Market Commentary
Markets opened much firmer than expected Sunday evening and then continued to strengthen during the night and into today's session. Soybeans were clearly t...
Deflections; Hurdles
The U.S. reportedly settled a trade remedies case with Indonesia, although the solution is off point from the original challenge. Trade Policy Deflections...
Politics and Ethanol in Brazil and the U.S.
On Sunday, there will be a presidential election in Brazil where the Rousseff government has developed and implemented a tax credit for ethanol imports. In...
Divide; Differ; Distort
To say that the U.S. and EU economies are structured differently is an understatement. While public sector employment in the U.S. is smaller and has been d...
North Dakota Farm Meeting
There were representatives from the malting barley and sunflower industry at the meeting. This supports the idea that the "minor" crops are engaged in watc...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
India's 2013/14 basmati rice crop saw different varieties purchased by millers at prices ranging between $485-625/MT. For several reasons, however, the pri...
Market Commentary
Markets were quiet in light overnight trading activity. It was a low volume back-and-forth trading session with little in terms of fresh market inputs. Cor...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Tracking Market History
The desire of interested parties to "discover" the value of certain grains in the future is one of the reasons for the evolvement of the first futures mark...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Oilseed Highlights
The recent sharp declines in global soybean prices may be good news for the world's soybean processors, food manufacturers and animal feeders after years o...
Bearish Global Dairy Market Won’t Slow U.S. Production
Some bullish factors in the U.S. include cheese and butter stocks in cold storage as of July that are at levels below the five-year average, which pushed u...
Market Commentary
After trading on both sides, soybeans, wheat and corn all closed higher in quiet trade. Wheat and soybeans were helped by good export sales volume last wee...
EU Prejudice; Gracias; Gridlock
Watching the new EU Commissioner-designates before the EU Parliament provides a sense that the new bunch is even more prejudiced against a Transatlantic Tr...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
The Russian Ministry of Agriculture reported that 10.73 MMT of grain were exported as of 24 September 2014 and from the beginning of MY 2014/15 (26.6 perce...
Market Commentary
If one wanted market action today, he should have taken on the wheat market. Chicago wheat closed with minor gains, but it traded in a 15-16 cent range on...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
The only way for Argentina to be competitive in the current global corn market is to sell corn via combos (corn with meal). Presently, the country can offe...
Baleout; Undue Barrier
The U.S. has agreed to pay a relatively small number of Brazilian cotton farmers $300 million to settle a trade dispute over the size of subsidies given to...
Oilseed Highlights
The Chinese government's refusal to approve the two new biotech soybean events was known to U.S. soybean growers and officials in the biotech industry at l...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
Tunisia's government reported that the 2014 grain crop is up by about 80 percent at 2.34 MMT. It was also noted that there will be a very significant drop...
Trade Policy Realities
EU Trade Commissioner-designate Cecilia Malmström told an EU Parliament panel yesterday that the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP)...
Market Commentary
Besides the ongoing anticipation of huge crop production and building stocks, markets ran into headwinds from outside factors as well today. General Commen...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
End of the Fiscal Year Snapshot
The short-term snapshot paints a rosy scenario for the federal budget with a lowered deficit, growing economy and strong revenues. However, if the current...
USDA’s 1 September Stocks Report
If there is a surprise in the stocks reported today, it is the extremely tight ending 2013/14 soybean stocks of 92 million bushels, the lowest ending soybe...
Putting the Squeeze on Switchgrass?
Most cellulosic ethanol today is made from crop residue as corn stover and wheat stalks are easily coprocessed at current corn ethanol plant locations. Swi...
Market Commentary
Today's higher price action in the nearby November soybean contracts is likely continue in the short term, irrespective of the contents of tomorrow's USDA...
Money Wasted; Pandering; Confusion; Smearing
The Observer reports Chinese President Xi Jinping declaring that his country must boldly pursue agricultural biotechnology and not allow foreign companies...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
USDA Quarterly Stocks Report
These quarterly stocks numbers have been critical market factors over the past several years when corn, soybean and wheat supplies were very tight. That wi...
China In-Country Analysis
At a recent national seed conference in China, it was indicated that a new seed law is under development that will focus on amendment of the PRV, seed labe...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Russian and Ukrainian wheat has lost competitiveness to the French, German, Polish and other Baltic origins. Russia has exported about 10 MMT of wheat sinc...
Farm Bill Sign Up to Begin Next Week
Farmers will have until midwinter to complete the update of base acres and make their one-time irrevocable decision on whether to enroll in the Price Loss...
RFS; Biotech Wheat; Food Disease
While foodies pursue the newest modern food to pillory and the latest ancient orphan crop to ordain with faddism, the more serious participants in food res...
Market Commentary
Markets started the night session little changed, but the soy complex eventually worked lower and again set new contract lows in the process. Good weather...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
The government of India (GOI) released the food grain production data last week, and estimates indicate the 2014/15 kharif production at 120.27 MMT, a 6.94...
Looking for “Minor” New Crop Bids
The minor crops will have the advantage in the 2015 growing season as farmers are again looking for alternatives to corn, soybeans and wheat. However, the...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Cycles
Since commodity prices have moved up and down in a cyclical fashion as long as prices have been recorded, there has developed a cottage industry of economi...
Market Commentary
Any semblance of yesterday's mini-rally disappeared during the day session that once again saw the nearby contracts for corn, soybeans and Chicago wheat si...
Yen; Breakout; Labeling
Brazilian presidential candidate Marina Silva is an environmentalist in a highly protectionist country, and yet she appears ready to break the mold on her...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Oilseed Highlights
The general outlook for China's animal protein and feed sectors over the next year is positive. The industry is confident the lower feed prices will result...
Oilseed Highlights
The general outlook for China's animal protein and feed sectors over the next year is positive. The industry is confident the lower feed prices will result...
Canada and Korea Sign FTA
Trade talks have been on-again/off-again since 2008. In fact, Canadian beef regained access to Korea in 2012 after a ban due to bovine spongiform encephalo...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Ukraine's Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food reported that the country has exported 7.4 MMT of grain as of 19 September 2014 and from the beginning of MY...
Market Commentary
Surprisingly, wheat was the market's leader today. More specifically, it was Chicago wheat leading the way after posting new contract lows and the lowest p...
Blistering; Arbitrage; Named; Trends
In a blistering attack, 90 scientists reportedly sent a letter to President Obama urging him to make FDA decide one way or another on AquaBounty's nearly t...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange recently toured the region south of Buenos Aires and estimates that 150,000 hectares have been entirely lost to flooding. T...
Oilseed Highlights
The large rise in China's soymeal exports to nearby markets has been mostly due to the lack of availability this year of the less expensive Indian soymeal...
Republican Senate Means Very Different Ag Committee
There will be five current committee members retiring at the end of 2014, three Democrats and two Republicans. With a change in party control, the Republic...
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
Egypt's GASC had a very busy week with two tenders and surprising purchases of wheat from France and the U.S. It bought 180,000 MT of French wheat at an av...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
Corn futures traded fractionally higher before turning down again. Soybean futures prices traded both sides of unchanged and were actually higher during mu...
Irony or Cynicism; Reeducation; Poison
New Delhi is single-handedly blocking implementation of a Trade Facilitation Agreement (TFA) that is designed to reduce barriers to trade with the very cou...
Searching for Demand
One role that the market must play is to discover how low prices must drop to uncover demand. Obviously, this becomes more difficult when supplies are risi...
Market Commentary
Soybeans set new contract lows today by a wide margin, dropping to $9.34. Wheat stabilized on news that Egypt had purchased a cargo of U.S. wheat for the f...
Farm Program Budget Numbers Growing
It is difficult to predict what the final farm program payments will be as based on harvest prices, contract prices, acres harvested and the like, but the...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Farmers in Romania and Bulgaria refuse to sell wheat at the current export parity, and the only trades reported in the domestic market are purchases from l...
China In-Country Analysis
The majority of China's soybean crushers are competitively keeping their plants' utilization rates up as available soybean stocks at the 20 major seaports...
A Few More Things to Keep You Up at Night
The market is assuming another record Brazilian soybean crop in 2015, based on more planted acres and another super yield. One potential impediment to this...
TPP Closeout; Pot and Alcohol Votes
Japanese Economy Minister and lead Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) negotiator Akira Amari will spend the next couple of days with his U.S. counterpart, Mic...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Do Low Prices Mean Big Crop Insurance Payments?
There is a misconception that the revenue protection insurance program guarantees a price. It does not. It does, however, guarantee minimum dollars per acr...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Non-GM canola seed has been introduced in India by private seed companies. In 2013/14 40,000 acres of land was put under canola seed in Northern India, a f...
Market Commentary
USDA announced additional export sales of corn and soybeans today, but the market paid scant attention to those announcements. Instead, the focus continues...
Legislative Wrap Up for 2014
The stage is set for members of Congress to return to their states and districts for campaigning. Republicans who control the House will highlight the bill...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Cattle and Beef Halfway Through 2014
Beef production for the first half of the year was just over 12 billion pounds and is projected at 24.5 billion pounds for the year, which would be the sma...
Scottish Fantasies; TPA or Not
A review of statements by the "Yes" campaign and others leaves a confusing picture of Scottish agricultural policy as we await the results of today's seces...
Oilseed Highlights
There is word that soymeal is in very short supply across the Midwest because crushers simply cannot acquire the soybeans they want to process. Several pro...
Market Commentary
Weather forecasts for the Corn Belt and northern plains look warm and dry and we are on the eve of record U.S. corn and soybean harvests. The only question...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Biotech Religion; WTO’s Role; CFTC Punishment
Following the NAS's two-day agricultural biotechnology conference, one biotech industry rep lamented that it will take two years for a report to be drafted...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
The only new crop commodity in Argentina that is operating with a semblance of normalcy (but with scarce volume) is soybeans. Argentine farmers have alread...
Market Commentary
Market news remains tough to find. The market is marking time until the corn and soybean harvests reach the Corn Belt. So far, yields across the Delta and...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Ukraine's State Statistic Service reports that total stocks of grain in the Ukrainian enterprises that store and process grain amounted to 23.4 MMT on 1 Se...
FSA September Acreage Numbers Release Brings More Confusion
Regardless of how you view and asses these different acreage estimates, they will impact the final crop production estimates and they strongly suggest smal...
U.S. Government Funding Solution
Federal funding runs out exactly two weeks from today. Both sides of the Congressional aisle reportedly want a “clean” CR, meaning no extraneous provisions...
Oilseed Highlights
Traders say China's soybean crushers currently are losing as much as $65 on every ton they process. They claim the poor margins are a result of China's slo...
Scottish Signals; Wave or Gridlock
Recent events are proving wrong the notion that history leads us to a fully integrated and borderless world. The march of history is uneven, and thus globa...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
Of great concern to wheat buyers in the region is the quality of France's wheat supply this season. It has been estimated that in excess of 50 percent of t...
Market Commentary
Today's market rally was caused by the release of the USDA/FSA acreage numbers that (again) suggest the USDA/NASS acreage estimates are too big. The big qu...
Market Commentary
Weather across the Corn Belt and northern plains looks nearly perfect for the next two weeks and maybe beyond. Perfect is warm temperatures and below-norma...
China In-Country Analysis
Recently released economic indicators imply that the economic recovery in China is struggling, which could reduce protein consumption and drive down the de...
Ironies; Dribble; Sino-Phobia
The U.S. National Academy of Sciences' Committee on Genetically Engineered Crops held its first of many planned public input sessions to build background f...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Farmers in Bulgaria and Romania will start planting winter wheat in the coming weeks, and planting conditions are optimal. The soil moisture is abundant af...
Commodity Risk in QE Easing
The Fed's easy money policy has not sparked inflation to date, but more effectively it served as a cushion for the lack of risk taking in an uncertain econ...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Little Frost Damage, Better Weather Ahead
The markets were firm last Friday just in case it got colder across a wider area than expected, but that didn't happen. It is possible that as the week rol...
European Double Toil and Trouble
EU President-elect Jean-Claude Juncker has asked Commissioner-designate for Health and Food Safety Vytenis Andriukaitis to conduct a six-month review of th...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
India is the world's second-largest rice producer and has huge surplus stocks in warehouses. After a 30-year gap, however, GOI will be importing rice this...
Market Commentary
Overnight markets were mixed to just slightly higher. Weather beyond this weekend across the country looks warmer and dry, and that is exactly what the cro...
Tidbits on Biofuels
The American Petroleum Institute (API) is worried that the administration is considering E85 as a way to increase the proposed 2014 Renewable Fuel Standard...
Agricultural Lenders Are Getting Spooked
The message is that agricultural lenders are more than a little worried about the rapid and steep decline in prices as well as the resulting destruction to...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Pork and TPP
The U.S. National Pork Producer Council (NPPC) has issued a statement to the entire group of negotiators involved with the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP)...
Oilseed Highlights
Stoller Enterprises, a Houston-based agronomic firm, announced yesterday that it was able to harvest 214.7 bushels of soybeans per acre (14.44 MT/hectare)...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
Today USDA published the first WASDE for the 2014/15 crop year for both corn and soybeans, and the report was more bearish than the average of market expec...
Business Opportunity in the Global Wheat Market
The writing is on the wall that wheat export opportunities to Asian countries are likely to rise, especially for any global producer of a consistent produc...
Out-Liars in the Policy Debate
The Pesticide Action Network (PAN) of North America has been called out for trying to undermine the credibility of a National Research Council conference a...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentine farmer are heading into the corn planting season, and expectations are that more acreage will be planted early as this past year's strategy of do...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Ukraine's 2014 grain production is expected to total 58.5 MMT, 7 percent less than in 2013. This includes 21 MMT of wheat, 7.9 MMT of barley and 27.8 MMT o...
EU Governance; Cellulosic Amateurishness
The cellulosic ethanol industry would not exist if not for the mandate by the U.S. government that its otherwise uneconomic product be used by American con...
Market Commentary
After three down days in a row, the corn market finally managed a positive close even if only by a penny or so as the market awaits tomorrow's report. The...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Budget Savings from Crop Insurance Premium Subsidies
According to the GAO, reducing premium subsidies for revenue policies could potentially result in hundreds of millions of dollars in annual budgetary savin...
Oilseed Highlights
A California company announced this week that it has successfully developed a hybrid jatropha variety which has high yield, rapid time maturity and a non-t...
Market Commentary
Corn, wheat and soybean futures prices all posted new contract lows during the day session today in slow trade. Momentum following funds continued to sell...
To Label or Not To Label?
Proponents of GM food labeling avoid attacking GMOs themselves. In an effort to evade having to contend with the overwhelming weight of the science that de...
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
Along with Egypt's new wheat relationship with Russia, there is news that it will have a direct freight service to Black Sea Russia in order to facilitate...
Checkoff Trouble; Antimonopoly Guise
India has long manipulated its food and agriculture market in an effort to protect inefficient producers while concurrently feeding its hungry. However, no...
Politics to Dominate Next Three Weeks’ Legislative Agenda
With the congressional midterm elections in the offing, political calculations are obviously at the root of everything. While this should prove to be a rau...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Ukrainian feed wheat is by far the cheapest origin at $192/MT FOB as the Romanian/Bulgarian is at least $10/MT higher. French feed wheat is nominally aroun...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Agency Fixes
Timothy Massad is showing that he is a completely different chair of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) than his predecessor as he has announc...
China In-Country Analysis
China's Ministry of Agriculture (MOA) recently announced that biotech applications can be submitted online effective 1 September as part of its efforts to...
Market Commentary
Wheat struggled with corn and soybeans during the first half of today's session, but the selling seemed to dry up before noon.There was actually light buyi...
Frost Is in the Air
Temperatures across nearly all of western Canada and portions of the Northern Plains will drop to 15-25 degrees below normal by the middle of this week. Th...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Canadian Stocks and Other Issues
Last year's Canadian crops blew away previous production records by an incredibly wide margin. The 2014 crop production estimates are back to more normal l...
Market Commentary
With the exception of soyoil, the soy complex gave us a small bounce overnight and this morning. The November contract set new contract lows yesterday at $...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
As more of India's population consumes meat, particularly chicken, the country's poultry industry would like to reduce production as a means to increase pr...
Letters on India
India's agricultural exports are growing fast, and it is not the result of having negotiated reciprocal trade liberalization agreements. Its average applie...
The U.S. Position in the World of Shale Formation Reserves
The benefit of the shale and tight oil formations is that with the new technology available to recover gas and oil from these sources, large volumes can qu...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Europe; Africa, Climate and Sugar
The U.S. dollar will be driven higher by inverse policies whereby Europe and Japan are increasing liquidity while the Federal Reserve is ending quantitativ...
Oilseed Highlights
The Malaysian government today exempted all exports of crude palm oil from its 4.5 percent export tax for the months of September and October. Palm oil exp...
The Politics of Corn
We used to refer to wheat as the "political grain." However, it seems to have now been replaced by corn, which by any measurement is the largest and most i...
PEDv Vaccine Approved
Based on field trials, USDA has granted a conditional license for a vaccine developed by Zoetis to prevent Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea virus (PEDv). Continue...
Market Commentary
The soy complex, corn, Chicago wheat and MGE wheat all closed lower. Once again November soybeans, December corn and Chicago December wheat all set fresh c...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
While Argentine farmers retain a substantial volume of soybeans as a hedge against current economic conditions, lower FOB prices may actually force them to...
Hopes and Doubts
Germany is considered the strength of Europe, but if its supermarkets reflect the will of the people, the future seems dull. The country's top supermarkets...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russia's agriculture ministry is planning to buy 4-4.5 MMT during the grain market interventions in the second half of September. These purchases are inten...
Market Commentary
Today was the day that grain and soy prices broke out of the relatively narrow price bands in which they had been stuck for the past month. The breakout to...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
Morocco's total 2014 grain production is expected to be down by about 30 percent versus a year ago with barley showing the largest decrease at 37 percent...
Budget Outlook through 2024
Revenues are expected to increase by about 8 percent this year versus last year to $3 trillion. They will rise from all major sources, including individual...
Market Commentary
Corn prices chewed back and forth in a narrow 5-cent range before closing slightly lower, while the soy complex was an island of strength among commodities...
Asia-Pacific Trade Policy
India put the final nail in the coffin of the WTO's Doha Round with its upending of the Bali agreement from last year. This has left plurilateral pre...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Happy New Year, Soybeans!
The 2013/14 U.S. soybean crop year was a notable one for the soybean industry, and the new 2014/15 U.S. soybean year promises to be memorable as well.Lest...
Oilseed Highlights
One of the issues certain to see a great deal of attention in Argentina's presidential election next year is the country's high export taxes on soybeans, w...
APHIS Priorities; Non Sequitor
U.S. cattlemen are upset that USDA's Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) has proposed designating Argentina's Patagonia region as free of fo...
Market Commentary
The only markets that could hold gains today were September soybean and soymeal futures. Corn and wheat traded lower most of today's session with the new c...
Farm Bill’s New Program Signup Starts with Dairy
USDA announced that the signup for the new Dairy Margin Protection Program (DMP) will begin 2 September and run through 28 November. It will allow farmers...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
There have been discussions about conducting an audit of the Food Corporation of India (FCI), which does not know how many stocks it is actually holding. I...
Things You Hear at Farm Shows
Some of the comments you read following these shows are insightful, while others make little sense. There are also a few that fit both categories.The late...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Oilseed Highlights
Reports out of China indicate some firms there have recently defaulted on palm oil purchases due to banks discontinuing loans. The one most notably impacte...
Ukraine and Grain
From the start of Ukraine's 2014/15 crop year on 1 July until 27 August, the country has exported a hefty volume of grains. However, the new southeastern f...
Market Commentary
Wheat led the way, and Chicago wheat traded above its 50-day moving average for the first time in three months. Corn futures closed up mostly 3-4 cents und...
WTO COOL Ruling Reportedly Against U.S.
Reports indicate that the WTO has once again ruled against the U.S. on country of origin labeling (COOL) and that Canada and Mexico may impose retaliatory...
Policy Choices and Prospects
A recent survey asking which of the world's various farm policies is "the best" produced quite a strong response. Our most recent online survey showed a c...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
As of 20 August 2014 and from the beginning of MY 2014/15, Russia exported 5.857 MMT of grains (22.7 percent more than during the same period in the previo...
Farm Policy; China; Green Error
Several Republican candidates are challenging the 2014 Farm Bill for its failure to cut food stamps more and better address its corporate welfare. Frustrat...
Market Commentary
Aside from the wheat markets' 5-7 cent gains, the balance of the market appeared to be marking time in very slow trade within relatively narrow trading ran...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentine farmers remain frustrated with their government's policies that are causing a consistent decline in the planting of grains (corn, wheat, barley)...
More Nuanced Look at Labor from the Federal Reserve
It is almost as if the Fed is looking for excuses to continue easy money policies now that inflation is in the range it targeted and employment news would...
Awash in Records
The 2014/15 year of big crops will stand out all the more since it follows several years during which weather-related crop production problems in the U.S...
Oilseed Highlights
Pakistan has traditionally sourced most of its soymeal from India and more recently from Argentina. A combination of factors has now caused Pakistani...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
Turkey has had quite a difficult crop year thus far with wheat barley and corn production appearing to be down by about 10 percent on average. It is expect...
Market Commentary
The U.S. dollar index closed higher again, putting it at a 12-month high against many currencies to the benefit of competing exporters like Brazil, Russia...
TPP; Disruptors; Food Prejudice
U.S. politicians have American industry now facing billions of dollars' worth of trade retaliation under the WTO for having tried to stymie food imports fr...
International Economic Roundup
Brazil is the seventh-largest economy in the world and has seen significant growth based on commodity exports to China. However, there are signs of weakeni...
Communist Wine; Orwellian Organic
The Russian Parliament next week will consider legislation that would nationalize the country's wineries. A state monopoly on wine is contended to accompli...
U.S. Spring Wheat Crop Headed for Trouble
Western Europe's wheat crop and the U.S. hard red winter wheat crop both have major quality issues, and it now appears that the North American spring...
Market Commentary
Corn actually behaved pretty well today, considering soybean futures were putting in new contract lows and wheat was also weak. Weekend rains coupled with...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
China In-Country Analysis
The drought that continues to afflict China's corn belt is impacting the new crop. Some estimate that production will be cut by 7.5-8 MMT. As a result, the...
Sugar Market Turnaround
Sugar took a big crash a year ago with the market price falling below loan forfeiture levels, but prices this year have tightened up and are potentially ge...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
While India wants to liberalize trade with other nations, it has also come out strongly against the WTO and asserts that it is the organization itself that...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Oilseed Highlights
Canada's canola crop forecast is lower than expected as a result of reduced canola plantings and too much rainfall in parts of Manitoba and Saskatchewan as...
More Things to Keep You Up at Night
It is no longer profitable to plant corn with prices less than $3.00 a bushel across the northern Corn Belt, and we could be on the cusp of a significant a...
Flurry of Policy Developments
U.S. farm groups have opposed the "top down" effort by U.S. EPA regulators attempting to dictate farming practices around the Chesapeake Bay, but they are...
Market Commentary
Uncertainties in the Black Sea region and the strong old crop soybean market kept markets strong into the close today. The Pro Farmer Crop Tour across the...
Immigration; Boogeyman; Mustard
Immigration reform proponents have reduced spending on the issue at the same time conservative politicians have increased their rhetoric against illegal im...
Cheaper Feed and Record Meat Prices Impact Livestock
Cattle and hog prices are feeling some pressure from lower wholesale meat prices, while the beef, pork and poultry sectors are all likely to benefit from l...
Dodd-Frank: Four Years After
That four years have passed and barely more than half of the required new regulations have been finalized is a sign of the complexities of the legislation...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
Some commercial buying of corn futures was noted today that helped the corn market close mostly 1-2 cents higher in moderate volume. Wheat futures closed h...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading saw corn and soybean futures prices edge lower, while wheat values firmed a few cents. In truth, there was nothing around to inspire trad...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Various participants in Argentina's corn market expected that prices could temporarily heat up when the government recently announced a shutdown of corn li...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Ukraine's sea ports shipped 595,800 MT of grain cargos for export between 11-17 August. The most active importers during this period were Saudi Arabia (123...
Infrastructure Problems; Old Ships
The failure to undertake infrastructure improvements is now burdening commerce in the U.S. the same way it does in Brazil. U.S. of Brazil During the Great...
Backtracking; Treadmill; Hoodwinked; Invest
Blaming fast food and sugar for obesity has been easy because attacking agribusiness bears little political cost. Now Britain's Institute of Economic Affai...
Soybeans: Out with the Old, In with the New
There is always some tension in the transition between the old soybean crop year and the new one. The time gap between the statistical end of the old crop...
Market Commentary
It feels as though the corn and wheat markets are in something of a lull. Prices of both have already fallen so far that sellers have become reluctant to p...
Oilseed Highlights
One of the bright spots for global soybean demand in the past two decades has been Southeast Asia, which has had solid economic growth in recent years as w...
California Mandates Feed Directive That FDA Proposed Be Voluntary
The California law reflects what the FDA had proposed be voluntary such as drug companies removing growth promotion claims from any antibiotics that are us...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
In light of the sanctions imposed against Russia, grain/oilseed-importing countries in the region such as Turkey, Egypt and Morocco are looking very closel...
U.S. Situation Improves, but Shuttles Still Expensive
The key to shuttle freight values will be what the turn times are through the harvest and into the winter. The railroads were able to essentially triple th...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Quality problems with the wheat crop in France and Germany will certainly reduce the EU's export potential. However, the resulting sharp drop in EU wheat e...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Policy Choices; Ethanol Room; Africa
Even if the FSA data has indicated a slightly lower acreage, the U.S. is still going to produce an exceptionally large corn crop. Meanwhile, U.S. EPA may w...
Farmland Values: Effects of Crops versus Livestock and Dairy
Farmland values in the Midwest have been dropping, based on near perfect growing conditions and an anticipation of a bumper crop this year for corn and soy...
Market Commentary
Markets were mixed overnight with corn higher, wheat lower and soybeans mixed. There was no escalation in the Russia/Ukraine situation and that led to anot...
China In-Country Analysis
The most recent China Customs data indicates that soybean imports in July reached 7.47 MMT, substantially higher than the official estimate of 5.87 MMT,&nb...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Due to the Indian monsoon's slow start and its current lull as well as the delayed sowing, some of the major crops' yields could be small. India also may n...
Reflection; Gripe; Rotary Dial; Sweet News
The German leak of one-third of a 1,500 page Canada-EU Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) involved more a gripe about the investor state dis...
Propane Outlook
After propane demand for drying crops in the upper Midwest surged and reduced inventories just before the start of winter last year, the season when it is...
More Confusion on U.S. Acres
One of the more puzzling aspects of USDA reports always seems to be the planted acreage estimates. In part, that is because there are two separate USDA age...
Market Commentary
Wheat was trading steady to slightly lower overnight until reports hit the news that Ukraine had fired on a Russian truck convoy within its borders. That p...
Where Are We Headed Now?
Any way one slices the numbers, the world has rapidly shifted from years of concerns about tight supplies of grains and soybeans toward questions about wha...
Embargo Blowback; Muddled Salt
There is no doubt that the Russian food import embargo is stinging exporters, particularly in Europe, but the West needs to hold a kumbaya on the situation...
WASDE
USDA raised its total red meat and poultry production forecasts in the August WASDE report that was released this week. These increases were based on heavi...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
The sharply higher basis levels for spot soybeans and the antics of the expiring August contract rippled throughout the rest of the soybean market and even...
Oilseed Highlights
Throughout the past year, USDA has been forecasting China's soybean imports in MY 2013/14 would reach 69 MMT, but that estimate may actually be too pessiim...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Ukraine's harvest totaled 33.764 MMT of grains and pulses as of 11 August, which included 9.12 MMT of barley, 23.348 MMT of wheat and 429,000 MT of rye.&nb...
Cereal Coercion; Sustainability
Environmentalists and some members of Congress are demanding that the government not approve Dow's Enlist Duo, genetically modified corn and soybeans that...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentine farmer selling of soybeans is under 50 percent for the present campaign. It is doubtful that any additional beans will be sold to China from Sept...
Market Commentary
USDA's estimates for U.S. and world grain and soybean production and stocks continued to reverberate throughout the markets. The shift to record crops and...
Argentine Biodiesel Import Issues
There are actually two issues here. The first is the alternative biomass tracking process, which will run its course, and the second is Argentina's Differe...
Market Commentary
USDA's conservative U.S. corn yield of 167.4 bushels/acre and production estimate of 14.032 billion bushels probably disappointed corn market bears, but th...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Forecasts from the August WASDE
Whether or not one considers today's August WASDE to be bearish depends on one's pre-report assumptions and the extent to which bearish expectations have a...
Troika; 91%; Onions
Notable is the decision by Kazakhstan and Belarus, the other two-thirds of the Russian-led Eurasian Customs Union, to not join Moscow in its food import bo...
Oilseed Highlights
Oil World is reporting this week that biodiesel production in Argentina and Brazil will increase sharply in both countries this year with Brazil's producti...
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
Syria does not seem to be any closer to finalizing its wheat sale to Iraq as the government reported last week that 200,000 MT were awaiting shipment, but...
Crop Insurance Premium Subsidies
The underlying fundamental issue with crop insurance is its actuarial soundness, and gaining higher levels of coverage through premium subsidies has...
China In-Country Analysis
After serious food safetly problems in recent years, China's Ministry of Agriculture and the National Health and Family Planning Commissions jointly issued...
U.S. Crop Revenue Assurance Guarantees Will Be Sharply Lower in 2015
Next year's program prices will not be established until February, so It is very early to be discussing what might happen in 2015 from a production standpo...
Market Commentary
The traditional trading funds are still reportedly long just over 70,000 contracts of corn. If that length is liquidated on a really bearish USDA report to...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Russia; Bots; Rice
Russia is over six times more important as an export market for Europe's farmers than it is for their American counterparts (€12.2 billion versus $1.9 bill...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
The Romanian and Bulgarian wheat harvest has finally been completed after a long delay due to the excessive rainfall in July and early August. Quality has...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
India's Ministry of External Affairs has suggested that it could allow U.S. chicken legs free entry into India if the U.S. permits imports of Indian basmat...
Market Commentary
Rumors that Moscow might be withdrawing slightly from its aggressive posture with Ukraine seemed to trigger a wave of selling across the wheat markets. Cor...
Change the Campaign
There has to be a market for biotech or else there will be no premium for non-biotech/organic. The opportunity missed by conventional agriculture continues...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Tuesday’s USDA Numbers Almost Have to be Bearish
There seems to be little doubt the production estimates will go up from the record corn and soybean yields already used in the July WASDE. The only questio...
Control of the Senate: Ag Committee Turnover
Of all the Senate win and loss combinations to change party control of that body, the Agriculture Committee plays a key role with five of its members retir...
Oilseed Highlights
Argentina's Buenos Aires Grain Exchange today indicated the nation's soybean crop in 2014 totaled a record 55.5 MMT, while Brazil's Conab reduced its estim...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading in grain and soy futures was quiet and mixed. Grains were slightly weaker, while late buying brought soybeans modestly higher. Trade duri...
Russia Bans U.S. Meat and Dairy Products Imports
As retaliation for sanctions imposed on its energy, financial and weapons manufacturing sectors, Russia has banned a number of U.S.ag products, particularl...
Russia Case; TTP/TPP; Government
China is prohibiting government procurement of all Apple products and Moscow has announced food import bans that only crudely reference any kind of WTO jus...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Hoping Against Hope
There seems to be a common thread emerging among many people with vested interests in corn and soybean prices and what direction they take. Farmers, cash g...
Ag Review: Timing the Commodity Cycle
Taming the Commodity Cycle Instead of reducing the biofuel mandate, policymakers need to make it a countercyclical approach to balancing supply and demand...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Ukraine's winter wheat harvest has reached its highest record level ever. This includes the period since the country became independent as well as the time...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentine corn premiums continue to decline, and the potential export surplus is close to 4.5 MMT. It may be difficult to find demand for such volume due t...
Dead Zones; Rating Africa; Trade Games; Water
One initiative arising out of the U.S.-Africa Leaders' Summit this week in Washington is a commitment by the U.S. Agency for International Development to p...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
Funds bought around 8,000 contracts of corn to fuel today's price rally, which took place despite rains in the western Corn Belt. The rally also ignored a...
Market Commentary
It was "Turnaround Tuesday" for corn and soy complex futures today, but not for wheat. Outside markets offered no support for grains, soybeans and other co...
Dietary Guidelines: Politics on a Plate
Sustainability is the latest ingredient to be mixed in to the nutrition policy making process. It is also a topic that the Dietary Guidelines Committee has...
Oilseed Highlights
The French analytical firm Strategie Grains this week raised its forecast for the EU's rapeseed crop this year to a record 22.9 MMT, which is 400,000 MT ab...
Crops With and Without Problems
U.S. spring planted crops have enjoyed excellent conditions to date, and they do not seem to be facing any major problems – at least so far. However, the s...
Gridlock, Shopping and the Future
With around 50 heads of state in Washington this week for the U.S.-Africa Leaders' Summit, the streets are ablaze with the police sirens intended to keep t...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
Turkey's reduced crop production, resulting from several weather-related issues, is negatively impacting both wheat and barley exports as well as increasin...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
After three weeks of incessant rains, the yield and quality of the wheat in the western regions of Bulgaria and Romania have been affected significantly. F...
American Idiot; Time to Challenge; Superfoods
India's Prime Minister Narenda Modi wants Washington to recognize that India is burdened with trying to help the poor. Meanwhile, the county spends $1.1 bi...
Stock Market Bearish Despite Fundamentals
Most of the causes for last week's stock market drop are outside of the U.S. as most domestic economic news is promising and supportive. However another po...
Market Commentary
Soybeans started last night with some follow-through selling from last Friday's weak day, but that selling quickly was absorbed by the short covering cause...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
China In-Country Analysis
China exported 1.36 MMT of soymeal during the first half of 2014, a twofold surge over the first half of 2013. The average profit margin of Chinese soybean...
Canadian Crop Tour Yield Estimates Well Below 2013
Western Canada's producers will have several other issues to deal with as a result of the excessive rains. These could include another low protein spring w...
Philosophy; Perfection; Self-Help; Tariffs
A letter from 140 U.S. House members is demanding that Japan fully open its market to U.S. agricultural products, or it should be kicked out of the Trans-P...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Although India's Prime Minister Modi recently emphasized the need to help farmers increase production with fewer inputs as well as less water and land, two...
What Happened to the El Nino?
The Northern Hemisphere growing season of 2014 will have to rank as one of the calmest, most boring in a very long time, and an El Nino pattern had been ex...
Salmonella in Chicken: U.S. And Foreign Policy Roles
As the U.S. Department of Agriculture's Food Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS) today announced the New Poultry Inspection System (NPIS), which is intend...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
In today's market action, soybeans and corn prices fell again, while wheat prices firmed. Forecasts for rain next week kept the corn and soybean markets on...
India’s Bounty; Sector Comparison
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is certainly not going to allow Trade Faciitation (TF) to move forward without the WTO green light to subsidize India's...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Oilseed Highlights
The Brazilian Association of Vegetable Oil Industries (ABIOVE) said its members have not yet secured agreement with Monsanto on a royalty collection proced...
Market Commentary
Corn continued to drift lower despite the weekly export number being above expectations. The November (new crop) soybean contract traded both sides of unch...
Legacies from the Great War
World War I had an impact on American agriculture that in some respects is still being felt today. To ensure there was enough food to feed the army, the U...
Court Upholds COOL
In a 9-2 decision this week, the U.S. Court of Appeals in the District of Columbia upheld USDA's rule for mandatory country-of-origin-labeling (COOL) for m...
Bitter Tax; Double Breakfast; Defensive Loser
Representative Rosa DeLauro (D-Connecticut) is again pushing her proposed national tax on sugar-sweetened beverages as the silver bullet solution to obesit...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russia exported 3.9 MMT of corn as of 30 June and from the beginning of MY 2013/14, which is double the entire MY 2012/13 result. The largest importers wer...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
The pace of futures trade overnight and again today was considerably slower than in recent days. Prices for the soy complex were hammered again, while corn...