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Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russia is reported to have exported 24.104 MMT of grain as of 21 May 2014 and from the beginning of MY 2013/14. However, a Rusagrotrans official expects Ju...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Chinese buyers continued to purchase old crop soybeans from Brazil for June-August. In contrast, the Argentine market remains very quiet, although there is...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Oilseed Highlights

Industry officials yesterday indicated the Brazilian government is expected tomorrow to increase the minimum amount of biodiesel to be blended into diesel...

MCC/TF; Denials; Shorts

Ideas of all stripes can be threatening to some, but Europe faces the unique risk of completely offshoring the pursuit of scientific ideas. Tie MCC to TF T...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

Contracts have been awarded in Egypt for the building of two UAE-financed wheat silos there. These are the first two in the joint UAE/Egypt project to buil...

Election Year Issues Kick in: EPA in Crosshairs

Senate Agriculture Committee Republicans have signed a letter to EPA Administrator Gina McCarthy regarding a number of regulatory matters before the agency...

Market Commentary

The corn market is signaling technical weakness, and we wonder how long discretionary fund longs will be willing to hang on. They need a weather problem to...

Spring Into Summer

USDA's initial projections for U.S. 2014/15 crop production in the May WASDE seemed quite optimistic at the time they were released in the midst of the ear...

Morals; Uncertainty; Baloney

The EU's import ban of seal products on "public moral concerns" was upheld by the WTO Appellate Body and could greatly broaden the use of moral claims for...

Ag Appropriations Moving Forward

Both the House and Senate Appropriations Committees are working within the constraints of keeping total discretionary funding at $1.014 trillion, which cam...

Once Again We Underestimate Fund Demand

Back eight or nine years ago when the ethanol boom happened and drove prices of everything to new all-time highs, much of that new buying was generated by...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Market Commentary

Corn was steady to 1-2 higher much of the session in trading volume that was something less than half of normal levels ahead of the long weekend. China wil...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

With prevailing heat wave conditions and indications of a delayed monsoon, several Indian states have issued an advisory stipulating a delay in crop planti...

FY 2015 Appropriations Bill

The House passed the agricultural appropriations bill for FY 2015 yesterday, and its biggest controversy revolves around USDA efforts to make school lunche...

Market Commentary

With two weeks of the crop year left to account for, wheat shipments are more than 120 million bushels below USDA's estimate. There seems no way that gap c...

Choosing a Cat Fight

Washington offers multiple and varied opportunities to engage in the agricultural policy debate, and today presented two competing options that are both an...

Reprise: The U.S. and World Grain Prices

The recent price movements of the world's most widely-watched soybean, corn and wheat futures contracts have called to mind once again the question of what...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Oilseed Highlights

Data released yesterday by China's General Administration of Customs indicates Chinese soybean processors have sharply increased their soymeal exports in t...

Market Commentary

The U.S. Federal Reserve Bank released the minutes from its April meeting today, and the stock market seemed to like what it read. General Comments The U.S...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

As of 16 May, Ukraine's grain exports totaled 30.5 MMT, 43.2 percent more than during the same period in the previous market year. Included were 8.8 MMT of...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Brazil needs to seriously consider trade issues as it may become the leading soybean exporter next season. Minister of Agriculture Neri Geller declared tha...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Dark Prince; Breakthrough

China will correctly exploit science, technology and mechanization to advance its own agricultural production, but it will err if it worries about the Lest...

Market Commentary

It was a rather strange day for grain and soy markets, which saw prices swinging in wide trading ranges. General Comments It was a rather strange day for...

Farmland, Credit Conditions and the Fed’s Exit Strategy

We've been in a period of low interest rates and high commodity prices that have helped drive up farm real estate values. Now the Federal Reserve is consid...

Soybean Market Fun and Games

The soybean futures market seems to ignore the seemingly inevitable, bearish shift in soybean supply/demand fundamentals in 2014/15. It is almost as though...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Oilseed Highlights

There are indications that at least five more cargoes of Brazilian soybeans are ether on their way to the U.S. or soon will be. Additional shipments of Bra...

GI Campaign

The EU is subsidizing an education campaign in the U.S. with the goal of having its farmers clamor for geographic indicators (GIs), but the trick is for Br...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

The Chamber of Commerce in Egypt has announced that it is working with four banks there to provide financing for the expansion of the poultry industry in U...

Reorganizing USDA for Trade

Given the importance and volatility of non-tariff trade barrier issues, the catalyst behind the reorganization was the need to have a central trade authori...

China In-Country Analysis

China's Ministry of Agriculture (MOA) and Ministry of Education together recently launched the "Training Plan for New Type Professional Farmers." This init...

India’s Election Result and the Global Phosphates Market

The prospect of a new government with a strong economic agenda has recently helped the INR recoup some of its losses, which could result in improved afford...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Wobbles; Cost of Purity; Traps

A House Agriculture Appropriations subcommittee considers a $20.9 billion FY 2015 funding bill tomorrow that would provide the Farm Service Agency with a $...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

The heavy pressure on the Black Sea market last week was driven by the multinational trading houses after the collapse of the futures' markets in the U.S...

Market Commentary

Soybeans again defied all of the bearish fundamental inputs and rallied sharply on significant fund buying. That left many in the trade looking for a solid...

The Issue of Rail Logistics

The situation in Canada is far worse than in the U.S., and all of this has prompted much talk about how long the logistical problems will last. Some are ev...

More Things to Keep You Up at Night

This late spring will result in fewer corn acres across the Northern Plains. North Dakota, for example, was expected to plant 2.95 million acres of corn in...

New Farm Program: Choices Ahead

Congress made a number of significant changes to crop support programs with the Agricultural Act of 2014, and farmers must make a one-time enrollment choic...

Dying for Rice; Faithless; Naked Tommy

It is hard to complain after pondering the conditions in North Korea where it is reported that Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un has ordered up some reforms in ag...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Mr.Narendra Modi, known to be very pro-technology, is expected to be India's new prime minister with the predicted landslide victory for the Hindu-dominate...

Market Commentary

November soybean futures were again about the only agricultural commodity to trade on the plus side today. China said it will sell 300,000 MT of soybeans f...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

The Market’s Next Task

For the past three years, strong market prices were needed to encourage sufficient crop production to meet growing demand. The next task for the market to...

Killing; Disclosure; El Niño

There is a very vocal opposition to TTIP in Europe, and politics will shift further against it when EU Parliament elections next week likely empower more p...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Oilseed Highlights

Lieutenant General Mi Zhenyu, former deputy director of the Chinese Academy of Military Science, recently wrote that the inclusion of soybean protein from...

Market Commentary

Good wheat crop prospects elsewhere, the lack of demand from importers and lower offers from Black Sea sellers seem to have overcome the impact of the drou...

Second BSE Case in Brazil

The cow was born on a farm it never left and where animals are fed by pasture grazing and mineral salts, rather than manufactured feed. Korea, Egypt, Peru...

Market Commentary

Grains seemed neglected during the overnight session as witnessed by a very light trading volume. After a slow and mixed start, the day session saw more tr...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Shipments of Argentine soybeans are quite delayed this season due to a late harvest, quality issues and problems in the port of Necochea that limit the dra...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Ukrainian Minister of  Agrarian Policy and Food Ihor Shvaika met with EU commissioners on 13 May to discuss trade-related issues and further developme...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Trade Policy Angles

One has to greatly sympathize with the conclusions reached by Copa-Cogeca, Europe's central farm organization, that the EU Commission's pursuit of a trade...

Market Commentary

It was Turnaround Tuesday for the corn and soy complex futures markets as prices rebounded from yesterday's sinking spell. The turnaround began during the...

Demand is the Thing

The world's combined ending stocks of wheat, corn and soybeans are projected to be almost 88 MMT greater than they were just two years prior. Said another...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

U.S.-Korea FTA Under Fire with Implications for TPP

Four Democratic members of the House of Representatives issued a press release criticizing the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) regarding numbers related t...

Oilseed Highlights

Farmers in northern Argentina evidently have found a way of avoiding the nation's 35 percent export tax by smuggling their soybeans into neighboring Paragu...

HFT is Manageable

At today's Senate Agriculture Committee hearing, even Andrei Kirilenko, the former CFTC chief economist and now MIT professor brought in to critique HFT, o...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

The trade reports that Egypt's payment for government-purchased grains is slowing significantly with delays in opening letters of credit for tender purchas...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

For the moment, the trend of increasing quality that was observed in the Bulgarian and Romanian wheat crop during the past five years will be reversed as f...

Market Commentary

Evidently, the funds that have been long decided to start liquidating some of that length following last Friday's USDA reports as well as what appears to b...

Court Rejects Challenge to 2013 Biofuels Mandate

At issue were whether EPA set the 2013 RVOs too late to be valid, a precedent that will have implications for this year, and if both the overall and advanc...

Show Me the Weather

It looks from here like wheat might have the tightest fundamentals going into MY 2014/15. Weather's impact on feed grains production (either negative or po...

China In-Country Analysis

China's auction of state temporary soybean reserves will begin 13 May 2014, according to official sources, and it is estimated that the size will reach 3 M...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Reality; Over-Certified; Amish

Policymakers in recent years have sought ways to offset the market's tendency toward commoditization in agriculture and thus raise farmer income by extract...

Good News, and More of the Same

It doesn't happen often, but it looks like Democrats and Republicans in the Senate and the House will be sending a reauthorization of the Water Resources R...

May USDA WASDE

USDA's total U.S. wheat production estimate came in below what the trade was expecting. We also note that USDA's hard red winter wheat production estimate...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

India's milk production is declining, and prices are rising with the approach of summer when demand typically increases. Stocks of skimmed milk powder (SMP...

Market Commentary

Corn and wheat markets were lower and soybeans mixed in very light overnight trading volume ahead of this morning's USDA reports. In spite of a bearish new...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Sugar Antidumping Case against Mexico

The Department of Commerce initiated an investigation last month to determine if the Mexican government has subsidized the country's sugar production and w...

Issues and Questions

While the May WASDE provides a first look at USDA's analytical insights for the following crop year, it seems the remainder of each old crop year can no lo...

China Stockpiling Pork

China's fresh pork prices are at their lowest point since September 2010 and down 19 percent from September of last year. As a result, the Chinese National...

Truth in Labeling

Consumer Reports has now found that 81 percent of those surveyed believe the organic label means that no pesticides were used in production, which is erron...

Market Commentary

Overnight trade was mixed with soybeans trying to reverse this week's downward trend, while wheat and corn were a little weaker. The day session saw simila...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Oilseed Highlights

The soybean surplus on the Chinese market will apparently worsen beginning next week as Sinograins announced today that it will auction 300,000 MT of soybe...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Chinese crushers have returned to demand soybeans from South America. Following two months of inactivity and desperate attempts to resell cargoes of prior...

Market Commentary

Based on anecdotal evidence, it seems likely that next Monday's USDA report should show corn planting progress reaching close to 60 percent, or even more,...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Diversity; Trade Policy Curiosities

Whatever was discussed between Japanese Prime Minister Abe and U.S. President Obama a few days ago becomes more curious by the day. Diversity Marketing Pla...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russia's annual report covering food safety has noted that measures taken by the government to stabilize the situation in agriculture will result in genera...

Free Riders: Bali, Aid, Beef

African trade ministers have apparently decided to act like Cape buffalo with a decision last week that reverses their commitment at the WTO ministerial in...

Oilseed Highlights

The U.S. cottonseed shortage has been exacerbated by the nation's dairy and cattle feeding sectors' continued strong demand for its usage in direct feeding...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

Wheat farmers in Kenya are very concerned because of an outbreak of wheat stem rust. No control for this type of wheat rust exists as it was first seen in...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Wheat Market Conundrum

The U.S. wheat futures markets are facing a dilemma. Should they price the relatively bullish wheat supply/demand balance, or the relatively bearish world...

Ag Review: Commentary on Opportunities in Agriculture

Opportunity: Complementarity The TTIP negotiations are an opportunity, despite the skepticism. The challenge is overcoming all of the pitfalls and finding...

Market Commentary

Unlike last year, soybean bulls are getting no help whatsoever from the cash market. Soybean crushers are relaxed, and export demand has fallen to a trickl...

Trade Deficit and Energy

Energy is one of the most interesting aspects of the U.S. balance of payments account. Higher energy production in the U.S. is transforming the nation's tr...

Anti; Mysteries; Shorts; and Surveys

France is insisting that if the EU does not invoke a ban on imports of hogs and pork as a result of the Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea Virus (PEDv), it will uni...

Legislative Agenda for the Year

There are only about 40 scheduled days of legislative session left for the remaining 2014 legislative calendar. That leaves the Congressional schedule very...

China In-Country Analysis

China's milk powder imports reached a record-high 109,000 MT in March as AQSIQ recently announced that imported milk products without labels in Chinese are...

More Things to Keep You Up at Night

Stats Canada released its quarterly stocks estimates this morning, and today's numbers again highlighted the magnitude of Canada's 2013 crop production. S...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

South America Highlights

Current economic dynamics in Brazil and Argentina are creating some opportunities for the agricultural sectors in both Uruguay and Paraguay. Brazil The Bra...

Market Commentary

It was the record-high temperatures and strong winds across the Southern Plains over the weekend that rallied wheat markets. Some weather forecasters were...

U.S. HRW Wheat Crop Collapsing

The smallest HRW production number going all the way back more than 45 years was 620 million bushels in 2002, although It's not likely we can see a disaste...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Economy Poised for Second Quarter Growth in 2014

Consumer spending was unusually strong as it surged 0.9 percent in March, the largest gain since 2005 with the exception of one month in 2009. The release...

Expanding the Foodie Concept

Recognizing the intellectual superiority of small, local and organic over conventionally-produced foods, a new initiative will seek to mimic the approach i...

Tokenism; Fishy; Man Bites Dog

Members of Congress have demanded that Japan agree to zero tariffs on agricultural products, but they apparently will not be getting their wish. Tokenism E...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

The EU temporary ban on imports of select Indian fruit and vegetables could have wide implications for a variety of other produce subject to the same quara...

Market Commentary

Wheat had a great deal of bullish news today, which started with the Kansas crop tour results. General Comments Markets were slightly higher in quiet overn...

Oilseed Highlights

The government of China recently issued its first official Agricultural Outlook Report, covering the period 2014-2023. Among other projections in the repor...

Market Commentary

Given what was happening with soybeans and corn, today's price break by CME wheat seemed about in line, and KC HRW's losses actually appear rather modest...

Old Perceptions and New Perceptions

It occurs to us that if nothing else, the flipping of the calendar page to May will force a re-examination of the perceptions that directed the market's pr...

What is Meant

European Commission President José Durâo Barroso is in Washington, and his message is that the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) agreem...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

State of the Livestock Industry

Trade was a major topic covered by most of the witnesses testifying at yesterday's hearing held by the Livestock, Rural Development and Credit subcommittee...

Market Commentary

Wheat futures prices, led by KC HRW, responded to pessimistic reports from the Plains HRW crop tour and little sign of drought relief in the offing. Genera...

Policy Shorts

U.S. House Ways & Means Trade Subcommittee Chair David Nunes (R-California) warned today that if President Obama fails to compel Congressional passage...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Argentina remains largely out of the global soybean market as exporters are not offering beans with regular quality (basis 34 percent, minimum 34.5 percent...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Prices for the 2014 Russian grain harvest are expected to be influenced equally by both political and climate-related factors. Due to the pending holidays,...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

HFCS Trends: Red Bull a Bear for Corn Sweetener

Energy drinks were a $350 million market in 2000 and reached about $9 billion in 2013, a 2,471 percent growth. Red Bull is the category's market leader.Bac...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

Farmers in Zimbabwe continue to be unhappy with the government's set purchase price for local corn that is said to be about $30/MT lower than the cost of p...

Welfare; Betrayal; Externalities

If one believes the organic industry, it produces more ethical food that is safer and more nutritious. Some in the organic community now want to incorporat...

Market Commentary

The Kansas crop tour got underway this morning, and the first report from the tour popped KC wheat futures to double-digit gains. General Comments Markets...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Oilseed Highlights

Two organizations in India have concluded that the country should focus on increasing the use of soybeans to alleviate protein malnutrition, rather than ex...

Corn’s Changing Dynamics

The plain fact is that we all missed the pent-up corn demand and end user stock building, inspired by the low harvest time prices that seemed very attracti...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Stats Canada Acreage Data

There is some concern that western Canadian farmers' planting plans are still in flux because the spring season has been so slow to arrive.Stats Canada rel...

Ignoring the Valuable; Biotech Labeling Retort

Given that 70 percent of processed food in the U.S. may contain at least one ingredient from food biotechnology, there are at least three constitutional la...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

The general perception in the market is that the wheat is overpriced due to the high political risk premium now included since the start of the Ukrainian/R...

Market Commentary

After a sharply higher early overnight trade, grain and soy futures gradually calmed down to finish the first trading session of the week in relatively pla...

China In-Country Analysis

While the long-term fundamentals suggest that the ongoing westernization of China's diet should lead to increased imports of soybeans, corn and pork, the c...

Food Aid Is Secondary Priority of Food Aid Programs

According to some policymakers, the requirement that aid be sent on U.S.-flagged vessels might be the most important issue.The White House has long ma...

Cellulosic Ethanol May Not Reduce Emissions

There was another blow to the cellulosic mandate this week as well as a new study challenging the notion that advanced biofuels reduce greenhouse gas emiss...

Trade Trumped; Greek Spin; Cow Poop; Etc.

Given that free trade is about unleashing economic comparative advantage, there is much to worry about in Greek agriculture. Security Trumps Business, Agai...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

With the IMD predicting a 56 percent probability of a deficient or below-normal monsoon for India, the impact on the farm sector and the country's overall...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Market Commentary

Markets were mixed in very light volume throughout most of the night session, but the tone gradually changed for several reasons. General Comments Markets...

Notes from Asia

The real story from Asia continues to be the expansion of the middle class and how that will continue to drive demand for everything from agricultural comm...

Trade Truth; Middle East, Commodities

Turning public opinion into a supportive force that can overcome special interests will require political leadership in Washington, Brussels, Tokyo and man...

Oilseed Highlights

Today it was confirmed that three employees of Marubeni's Columbia Grain subsidiary were arrested in China. Although it is believed to be soy-related, the...

Possible Brazilian Mad Cow Case

This potential case could be similar to a 2012 incident in Parana where an animal developed the prion, or abnormal, pathogenic agents that induce folding o...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Too High or Too Low

When we or anyone says that a particular market price is too high or too low, it may sound like we are saying that the market is wrong even though the mark...

Market Commentary

After some overnight weakness, prices at all three wheat futures markets rallied to post double-digit gains. The apparent worsening situation in Ukraine an...

Market Commentary

Signs indicate that demand for old crop corn remains brisk, and corn exports are holding to a level that appears to justify USDA's latest estimate of 1.75...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Argentina is not as affected as Brazil by the Chinese soybean situation, but its beans have been found to have quality problems that could be a reason for...

Trade Convulsions; Reorg

The EU wants the U.S. Congress to pass Trade Promotion Authority (TPA) as soon as possible, but the European resistance to fixing current trade barriers is...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russia exported 194,800 MT of sunflower oil in March 2014 (a 5 percent gain compared to February 2014 and 48 percent more than March 2013), the highest&nbs...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

Egypt's government has advised that current stocks and orders of wheat will last until 19 June 2014, while the country's wheat crop has a very wide range o...

Oilseed Highlights

China's Ministry of Commerce today raised its forecast for the country's April soybean imports. However, the recent defaults on soybean imports and rumors...

Foreign Assistance: Unneeded Advice

Indeed, it is hundreds of U.S. domestic programs that fail the government's Program Assessment Rating Tool (PART), but continue to be funded.Experts gather...

Citing a Few Potential Market Factors

The potential for unforeseen internal and external influences to move prices in either direction, short-term and/or long-term, remains at least as large as...

USDA Creates Investment Fund

The industries eligible for this new federally-facilitated investment fund include bio-manufacturing, advanced energy production, local and regional food s...

Market Commentary

The soybean market was rife with rumors of Chinese defaults and a Chinese government crackdown on letters of credit, supposedly issued to pay for commodity...

U.S. Soybean Outlook

We note that every year at this time we have looked at projections for rapidly building soybean ending supplies in the U.S. that have yet to materialize, e...

China In-Country Analysis

The Chinese government's stricter inspections of imported DDGS is currently affecting the domestic rapeseed meal price and also a factor in its growing dem...

Market Commentary

There were reports of a frost/freeze across Argentina that might have done some damage to late-planted corn and soybeans, but this news didn't cause a ripp...

U.S.–Japan in the Spotlight

While a complete TPP agreement is not expected, the weights of geopolitics, national security and economics have converged to pressure President Obama and...

Ethanol Roundup

Interestingly, as the import window into the U.S. appears to be closing, the Brazilian Sugarcane Industry Association (UNICA) is reporting that domestic et...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Easter Inflation

Not since the corn price run-up in 2008 have eggs been as expensive, and their prices are at a six-year high. Easter Inflation In keeping with seasonal dem...

The Soybean Puzzle

Does the fundamental outlook for soybeans as seen right now in April 2014 deserve an old crop/new crop inverse so much wider than during April 2013?For som...

Market Commentary

Today's early trade saw wheat prices firm, while corn and the complex traded mostly with red numbers. Volume was fairly active for a pre-long weekend sessi...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Oilseed Highlights

Because China is such a dominant soybean importer, the crushers there think they have the upper hand in forcing sellers to renegotiate prices to a lower le...

Currency; TPP Deal; Waste; Bad Seed

The signals regarding TPP just days before President Obama heads to Japan are mixed and confusing. Currency Conundrum Some powerful congressional Democrats...

Italian Reform; Curbing Speculators

Italy's proposed agricultural policy modifications include some 21st century concepts, while others appear to be more of the same, making it only partial r...

Market Commentary

With the Ukrainian/Russian crisis always lurking and the U.S. HRW crop not in good shape, wheat futures prices are moving up and down nervously. General Co...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Soybean selling by Argentine farmers is projected to substantially increase going into June, potentially to a record level, as a result of the increased ha...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

As of 11 April 2014 and from the beginning of MY 2013/14, Ukraine has exported 28.338 MMT of grain. According to Ukrainian Grain Association President Vlad...

Market Commentary

The strength of wheat and soybeans and fear that the Ukrainian situation is escalating probably kept the corn market from closing lower. General Comments T...

The Potential Impact of U.S. Soybean Imports

The U.S. 2013/14 soybean year will be unique in a number of ways. One of its most unusual elements will be record-large imports with a majority of the fina...

GAO Reports on RFS Impact on Refineries

The study was requested by Senators David Vitter (R-Louisiana) and James Inhofe (R-Oklahoma) with the specific topic of how regulatory costs impact the com...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

Jordan will need to continue importing close to 100 percent of its needed wheat supply, according to USDA FAS in Amman. With the influx of Syrian refugees,...

Oilseed Highlights

The National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) today released a surprisingly large soybean crush report for March that was the main reason soybean futu...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

UN Publishes Sustainability Guide

Its premise is that traceability is one of the greatest tools for impacting sustainability. If traceability is going to develop, it has to either be mandat...

More Things to Keep You Up at Night

There have been several announcements from the Canadian grain trade recently about big new investments in grain handling infrastructure. There have been s...

China In-Country Analysis

Due to the Chinese government's corn procurement in major production provinces, it seems probable that China's domestic corn prices have hit bottom and wil...

Market Commentary

Corn tried to tag along with wheat, but never got better than 8-9 higher and actually faded slightly at the close. General Comments Three weekend events pu...

Chemophobes; Off-Expertise

Separating otherwise safe, concurrent uses of chemicals is as wrong a strategy as the Maginot Line. Organic matter is chemical matter at its base. Chemopho...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

With 27 MMT of exports, the EU wheat carryout stocks will be significantly tighter than last year. However, Western Europe's crop seems to be developing fa...

Market Commentary

It has been a very volatile week with Wednesday's USDA WASDE sandwiched in the middle and providing a bullish burst to corn and soybeans. General Comments...

House Passes Budget Resolution

The budget cuts domestic programs by $791 billion in the years 2016-2024, while it increases defense spending by $483 billion. The House passed its versio...

Trade Negotiations Struggles; Correction

An American tourist can see the sights in a half-dozen European cities within a week or less, yet USDA will need 6-7 months to look at the meat inspection...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has suggested that it is too early to predict the monsoon pattern and El Niño's effect, but it has also issued w...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

The Corn Outlook is Changing

It will now take more than a record yield per acre to again start talking about 2014-15 corn ending supplies exceeding 1.5-1.6 billion bushels.We've gone f...

Market Commentary

The market's tepid price action following yesterday's bullish (for soybeans and corn) WASDE was considered disappointing to market bulls, and long liquidat...

Oilseed Highlights

Reports indicate Chinese soybean importers have defaulted on 10 or more cargoes of U.S. and Brazilian soybeans, fewer than in 2004 when buyers forfeited up...

Meat and Livestock Overview

Retail beef prices have tested the consumer limit with 13 percent growth over the past year, while pork prices have been tempered by increased slaughter we...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Dodd-Frank and CFTC Reauthorization

The House Ag Committee, which holds congressional oversight authority over the CFTC along with the Senate Ag Committee, decided to use the CFTC reauthoriza...

STA; Corpse Logic; Condiments

TPA is dead, long live STA. When a concept is in trouble, public relations experts start rebranding. Evolving Acronyms TPA is dead, long live STA. When a c...

Market Commentary

The changes USDA and WOAB analysts made to their 2013/14 U.S. and world supply/demand estimates tracked closely with private expectations in terms of direc...

Cake; Meat; Gorilla

When it comes to stoking global economic activity, the 800-pound gorilla rattling some markets is the potential slowdown in China's growth. Late as Usual R...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

The main concern about Argentine soybeans this season relates to protein content. Current protein levels are below normal this harvest and that fact is mak...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

The president of the Russian Grain Union said Russia's current financial problems may negatively impact the planting of grains. Ukraine has planted early s...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Market Commentary

Today's higher grain and soy prices reflected the market's expectation that tomorrow's WASDE will be bullish. General Comments Although trading of a number...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

News UpdatesMEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST COMMENTSFrance Export Cereals (FEC) has said that the country needs to exert more effort in developing Egypt's privat...

Selective Science

Britain's Soil Society, the organization pushing organic agriculture in the UK, is apoplectic over a study in the British Journal of Cancer. Selective Scie...

Advanced Biofuels Hearing In Senate

The need for the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) and other federal policies to support the industry and attract investment was a key theme of today's hearing...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

The April WASDE and Thereafter

Tomorrow's report could have considerable importance in market terms since non-commercials are so heavily invested on the long side of corn and soybeans.US...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

Egypt's Red Sea Ports Authority (RSPA) has announced that it will be developing a new wheat import facility in Adabiya Port that is expected to handle abou...

Oilseed Highlights

It now appears the EU's 2014 rapeseed production will be up sharply from the last two years and approach the record 2009 crop. South American Soybeans Begi...

Market Commentary

Soybeans again had a 20-cent trading range with prices lower most of the session and the old crop/new crop spreads losing some ground. There was talk of th...

Railroads, 2014 Volumes and Court Case

According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), rail cars spent twice the time between loading and unloading in the Midwest than last year d...

A Look at Northern Plains Profit Potential

There are only three crops that show a positive net return, and barley is really not an alternative today.The table below is from the Carrington, North Dak...

Ag Review: Crimea and it's Implications

Crimea River History suggests that geopolitical troubles have less impact on food production than fundamentals like the weather. Crimea: Present Situation,...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

The corn plantings in Romania and Bulgaria have started under favorable weather conditions, and we estimate that the corn acreage will marginally decrease...

China In-Country Analysis

13 Chinese government agencies, led by the Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM), recently issued guidelines aimed at establishing a unified agricultural market me...

Impacts of Geopolitics and Technology

Improving Japanese farm labor misses the larger shift that needs to occur if the nation's agriculture is to survive liberalization under TPP.U.S. trade neg...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

Clear as Mud; Biotech

EPA's recently proposed "interpretive guidance" on Clean Water Act regulations made for some fun in the agriculture community this week. Clear as Mud Norma...

Biodiesel Tax Credit

While the biodiesel tax credit has been extended retroactively in the past, it has had a unique impact.The Senate Finance Committee considered and passed i...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Prices of skimmed milk powder (SMP) have soared in India. There is a shortage as the government of India (GOI) did not regulate SMP exports and the deficit...

Minor Crop Acres

The issue with some of these very minor crops is that it doesn't take much of an increase or decrease in acreage to have a major impact on prices.We get so...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

Market Commentary

Wheat turned decidedly weaker early this morning and dragged corn lower as well, while soybeans again traded both sides of unchanged much of the session. G...

PEDv Update; Hogs and Pigs Report

There is good news this week regarding the number of PEDv cases during the latter part of March, and there is seemingly some hog market reaction. PEDv Upda...

Monkey See; Risks Ahead; TPP Rollercoaster

Former Lehman Brothers chief economist John Llewellyn notes that developing countries with sufficiently bad scores in terms of budget deficits, trade defic...

The Focus on High Frequency Trading

The topic of high frequency trading (HFT) of equities and commodities has become all the rage and raises several questions that generate a wide difference...

Oilseed Highlights

It is particularly interesting that the U.S. has not seen a drop-off in soymeal exports to the EU in 2013/14. U.S. Soymeal Export Sales and Shipments Very...

Market Commentary

Total U.S. corn export commitments have now reached USDA's latest forecast for all of 2013/14, actually 2 million bushels above it with five months of the...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

Extenders; Mercantilists; Cotton; Geopolitics

A successful public forum by the WTO should be centered on why imports are actually good for everyone and emphasize that the focus cannot be solely on the...

Market Commentary

Since USDA's reports on Monday, the futures price action has given farmers the opportunity to unload some of their ownership and given users the opportunit...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

South American soybean prices have been hesitant to follow futures markets higher. The result is that Argentine basis continued to weaken last week. Corn T...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

As of 31 March 2014, Ukraine has exported 27.351 MMT of grain from the beginning of the market year, and preliminary forecasts indicate the country's grain...

Biodiesel Blenders’ Credit in Senate Bill, Out of House

With strong support for passing some extenders, the biodiesel tax credit and the cellulosic tax credit both have strong individual supporters who are likel...

March Report Thoughts

That the trade's analysis of stocks and acreage turned out to be so close to USDA's survey results is another way of saying that yesterday's reports were s...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

Market Commentary

The wheat market has backed off after its long bull run and has begun to cast weaker technical signals. This has caused some liquidation selling and the un...

Oilseed Highlights

India's soybean processors are struggling to supply the domestic poultry and aquaculture markets with soymeal as they cannot source enough supplies. USDA R...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

There is a problem with Egypt's domestic grain silos project, financed with funds from the United Arab Emirates (UAE), that was intended to build 25 storag...

Primitivism; Disincentive; DETs

Researchers at the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) estimate that Argentina's biodiesel production would increase by 9.6 percent if the...

Argentina Petitions EPA for Biodiesel Pathway

Some Argentine producers have been through this process previously with sorghum that was imported and used to make ethanol in California.Argentina's biodie...

China In-Country Analysis

More crushers have suspended or slowed production in order to mitigate crushing losses. It is projected that soyoil prices will remain weak, but there is l...

Wrong; Imperfect; Smuggled and Quantified

A WTO agriculture committee meeting revealed why it will be difficult to get the Doha negotiations back on track. Naturally Wrong Recently installed Federa...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

Market Commentary

The market felt like wheat again became the short leg of the corn and soybean markets. If you don't trust a rally, you sell something else against it. Gene...

We Finally Have the Numbers!

You can plug any yield you like into these acreage estimates today and come up with bullish and bearish outcomes.Today's USDA quarterly stocks and planting...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

The EU has now allocated  22.7 MMT of wheat export licenses versus 15.1 MMT a year ago, and its wheat balance will be dangerously tight at the end of...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

Biofuel Roundup

Ethanol groups continue to push for EPA to increase the Required Volume Obligations (RVO), arguing that the agency was overly dismissive of E15 and E85 use...

Monday’s USDA Reports

The most important number in the quarterly stocks numbers will be the 1 March corn stocks, and the contest this year with planting intentions will be how m...

Oilseed Highlights

U.S.  soybean exports thus far in 2013/14 are now at 39.835 MMT and unshipped soybean export sales stand at 4.609 MMT for a total of 44.444 MT, ...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

The state government of Maharashtra has assessed the weather-related crop damage there at $1.63 billion and the area affected at about 1.8 million hectares...

Market Commentary

Corn was surprisingly firm today with wheat getting hammered and ahead of Monday's USDA reports that many analysts believe will be bearish. General Comment...

Unsweet; Smoggy Thinking; Retaliation

The sanctions battle between Moscow and Washington continues apace, and it seems only a matter of time before Russia starts arbitrary restrictions on impor...

Market Commentary

Markets were quiet and somewhat weaker overnight, but this changed during the day session when corn and wheat turned and headed higher. General Comments O...

Sour Trade Policy; Language Rationale

The same divided opinion that has stalled Doha for 13 years remains: defining whether development results from trade or from protectionism. Sour Trade Poli...

“Once More unto the Breach”

It seems fair to say that the corn market is at risk if, like last year, next Monday's corn stocks are much greater than anticipated.We hope that students...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

PEDv Update

Smithfield, the largest pork processing plant in the U.S., announced that it has decided to run its Tar Heel, NC facility only four days a week and suggest...

Strategic Interests Everywhere

One country's strategic interest is another's free enterprise.One of the challenges for U.S. Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade negotiators is achieving...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Ukraine has exported 26.8 MMT of grains as of 24 March 2014 with a total grain export forecast of  33 MMT for MY 2013/14. Russian Grain Markets Planti...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

There seems to be considerable demand to buy combos of Argentine corn and meal together as Argentine meal can help offset the price of corn, and both produ...

Trade Policy Hurdles

A Wilson Center panel on the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) today painted a mixed picture on the outlook for an agreement. TTIP Regu...

Oilseed Highlights

It is rare that palm oil trades at a premium to soyoil, but a shortage is resulting in higher prices that are expected to lead to substantial increases in...

Market Commentary

Farmers are using the highest wheat prices they have seen in many months to price some of their anticipated production. General Comments The war of words b...

Organic Fudge; EPA likes Ag; TTIP Quid Pro Quo

U.S. trade negotiators should view the EU's demand for recognition of its system of protected designations of origin (PDO) and protected geographical...

Global Derivatives Trade Rebounds - Slightly

As we all know, 2012 was a very difficult year for the derivatives world. The good news in 2013 is that the volume plunge was reversed.Detailed annual data...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

Moody's is reviewing the ratings for 10 Turkish banks with the trade expecting that there could be a general downgrade for all involved, affecting their in...

Many More Cattle on Feed

Last month's feeder calf placements data points to a changing supply situation for the beef market next quarter. Similarly, feedlots' fed cattle marketings...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

Market Commentary

It has been a day of light trading volume and somewhat more limited price movements with corn closing lower, soybeans closing higher and mixed closes for w...

No Carry in Corn

If the smart money is betting that corn ending supplies will increase from 1.5 billion bushels this year to more than 2 billion next year, shouldn't we be...

Correction

The analysis piece entitled "March Madness" in the 21 March edition of Ag Perspectives contains two errors.The analysis piece entitled "March Madness" in t...

Market Commentary

Soybeans, corn and wheat all rallied sharply on what looked like fund buying after Europe came to work today, which is when the fireworks started. General...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

Skewing Climate, Country and Organic

The European Commission's Trade and Investment Barriers Report 2014 takes issue with the U.S. approach of approving meat inspection equivalency on a countr...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

Ukraine's export program from its ports currently appears to be undisturbed by the crisis. However, several Russian banks reportedly have stopped providing...

China In-Country Analysis

The Agricultural Development Bank of China (ADBC) recently urged the government to accelerate the sales of reserve grains and cottons. Borrowing for the st...

March Madness

March Madness is the term used to describe the NCAA national college basketball tournament because there are typically numerous upsets. It has now started...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Rising domestic feed prices and GOI's ban on soymeal imports are expected to have a strong negative impact on India's poultry industry. Declining Indian Oi...

Latest Consumer Trend in Food: Agricultural Land

The potential new trend now is land rights, or at least land acquisition. While not a primary issue for U.S agriculture yet, it is a new, complicating fact...

Disconnect in Russia; Cellulosic Folly; Religion

Politicians in the West often do not understand market economics, so it is understandable that a former KGB spy uses fiat instead of making a business deal...

Market Commentary

Wheat behaved like the soy complex today. Yesterday's big reversals off the highs brought some fund selling and other profit taking, keeping all three whea...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

Risk in Russia; Fake Meat and Salt Water; Attribute Risk

One national security analyst said that success in the Crimean situation is not allowing Russia-U.S. relations to spin out of control, and yet it spiraled...

The Risky World Soybean Market

U.S. soybean derivatives are essentially the only exchange-traded hedging vehicle available to the world soybean market. It works when circumstances allow...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

Oilseed Highlights

There have been reports that Chinese crushers are seeking to cancel or resell up to 30 cargoes of South American soybeans due to poor margins. Chinese Soy...

Market Commentary

The overnight session did not prepare markets for the volatile price action that was the feature of today. General Comments President Obama announced more...

Milk Production, Exports and Margin Insurance

Dairy producers are entering a new era with milk exports at about twice their traditional level and about 50 percent greater than recent highs. This trend...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 10-14 March 2014Market TrendsPrices continued to increase, especially corn and wheat, due to the RUB depreciation and the Crimean po...

Market Commentary

The Fed's latest take on the U.S. economy is still seeing positive growth, although the rate of growth has slowed somewhat due in part to the severe winter...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

CBOT futures may presently be rallying, but there is no demand for Brazilian soybeans from Chinese buyers. Soybeans: Brazilian Prices No Longer Inverted Th...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

Trade Policy Football; Dispute China; Quotable

TPA approval will require the Democratic Party elites to stand up to organized labor and the protectionists, much the way Main Street Republicans have begu...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Ukraine's export capacity is not expected to be negatively impacted by the potential loss of ports in Crimea as they represent only a small percentage of t...

Rationing Demand for U.S. Soybeans

While total available 2013/14 U.S. soybean supplies are about 225 million bushels greater than the 2012/13 total, all of the additional supplies are being...

Oilseed Highlights

Argentine exporters are facing shipping delays because of a ship blockage on the Parana River and may soon also encounter a port workers' strike. Brazil Cr...

Ag Block; Fertilizer BS; Crimea

Mega-retailer Walmart announced that it will require suppliers of agricultural crops to reduce fertilizer use on 20 million acres by 2020. Ag is Stumbling...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

Buyers in the Levant, particularly Jordan and Syria, who source all of their corn from Ukraine are very concerned about a possible force majeure situation,...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

Market Commentary

After sputtering about yesterday and again early in the overnight session, grain and soy futures markets bounced firmly higher today, but why is not exactl...

Food Inflation 2014

The rate of inflation for food increased 0.4 percent in February 2014, which was four times the core rate and the highest monthly increase since September...

Variable Daily Trading Limits to Arrive 1 May

We don’t know what all of this new math’s real impact will be on the markets.The CBOT Group continues to mess around with the futures markets. We’re never...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

The Black Sea market is firm as offers are difficult to find and also nervous about possible cancellations (force majeure). Milling Wheat The Black Sea mar...

Ukraine And Russian WTO Implementation

Based on Russia's actions in 2013, there is seemingly enough reason for the U.S. to impose dispute resolution processes with that country in the WTO.The cu...

Miscellaneous Monday

Brussels has been increasingly providing administrative flexibility to EU member states, including the current effort to make the planting of biotech crops...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

Market Commentary

Today's immediate trader response to the current Black Sea situation was that the short-term risk was now off, and some of Friday's long positions were liq...

China In-Country Analysis

According to China Customs, soybean stocks in major Chinese seaports reached 5.57 MMT as of 10 March, an increase of 10,000 MT from the previous month. Oil...

TTIP Strategy; Aiding Ukraine

The Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) negotiations are hung up on tariffs, but Europe's aspiration for geographical indicators is an ar...

Interior Basis Levels Sick–the System is Plugged

Corn and soybean basis in the northern interior have plummeted to what might be all-time lows for several reasons.Demand for corn, wheat, soybeans, canola,...

Market Commentary

Wheat continues to confound market analysts who are searching for a reason for its strong rally. General Comments Markets started the night session lower a...

House Ag Submits Views and Estimates to Budget Committee

The letter makes the case for protecting farm bill spending from any further cuts under the FY 2015 budget.Under the federal budget process, each of the co...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

The extreme prevailing weather conditions continue to damage crops, leading to a belief that climate change is here to stay and that the El Nino factor wil...

Oilseed Highlights

Conab reduced its estimate for Brazil's 2014 soybean crop, disappointing the government that had predicted the country would for the first time have a larg...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

Farm Bill Spending; Failed UN Employee

While FAPRI's Baseline Briefing Book predicts a spike in farm bill spending due to lower crop prices, its forecast could affect farm program signup. Farm B...

Hindsight and Foresight

If the factors we point to in hindsight are largely responsible for the recent upturn in grain and soy prices, what about foresight? What is likely to happ...

Market Commentary

Concern over the Ukrainian situation is given as the reason for today's U.S. stock market plunge. Grain and soy markets chopped around on both sides of yes...

Heifer Delivery on Cattle Contracts Coming

CME's research into the cattle trade discovered that while heifers are lighter, they are more uniform and higher yielding than steers and frequently have h...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Total Argentine farmer selling of corn has now reached approximately 2.3 MMT, 10 percent of the expected crop. Although the harvest has been active this pa...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

The volume of grain dispatched from Ukraine's sea ports has not been negatively affected by the Crimean crisis. Meanwhile, Russia's agriculture ministry in...

Slowing Trade Negotiations; Invasive

The impact of the United States-Korea Free Trade Agreement means that TTIP and TPP will have to result in impressive trade policy improvements for the U.S...

Market Commentary

Today's grain and soy markets saw a tug of war develop between the strength of wheat and the weakness of soybeans with corn caught in the middle. General C...

Market Commentary

Although there does not appear to be any disruption in Black Sea grain shipments or in early spring planting in Ukraine so far, the situation remains a maj...

Biodiesel Tax Credit: What Will Happen?

Biodiesel critics and advocates both noted that there was no proposal in the president's budget to extend the biodiesel blenders' credit. This has sparked...

Updated Outlook for U.S. Corn

The big rally in corn futures prices during the past two months does stand out and has analysts asking themselves if this marching bull corn market can be...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

Farm Bill Fatigue; Deceptions

One congressional assertion is that making agriculture a bigger tent will ensure that future farm bills go more smoothly. Farm Bill Cost No Issue The Congr...

Oilseed Highlights

As a result of the Argentine government's price controls on biodiesel, producers have decreased production and there is not enough available to supply the...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

Ukraine's recent corn price increases have made the supply to North Africa much less competitive.  It appears that importers of larger vessels will pr...

China In-Country Analysis

China has recently issued a series of policies to promote family farms that could also mean that the freedom to transfer and consolidate land will be estab...

Market Commentary

The actual WASDE numbers were a bit more positive than the trade estimate average, but that didn't slow the across-the-board selling. General Comments Mark...

House Ag Appropriations Hearing

Overall, USDA is seeking a reduction in discretionary outlays of $2.638 billion from what it is projected to receive in FY 2014 under the continuing resolu...

March USDA WASDE Doesn’t Change Much

The trade was looking for a slight increase in the corn export forecast and that's what it got, while there might have been some disappointment that the co...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

The Black Sea wheat market remains firm due to the region's political tension, and there are no offers in Ukraine. Milling Wheat The Black Sea wheat marke...

Changing Energy Markets

The shrinking U.S. demand for fuel obviously exacerbates the blend wall issue. However, the global demand for crude and petroleum fuel, up about 6.5 percen...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

Technology Starts and Stops

U.S. aggies would say it is technology that will limit progress by U.S. and EU Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) negotiators next week...

Market Commentary

Corn futures started to falter when Canada's government made comments about forcing its railroads to move more grain and oilseeds. That helped push the oat...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

A lower sugarcane output and the slow start to its processing because of price issues have been cited as the major reasons for the decline in India's sugar...

Oilseed Highlights

The general view now is that India's 2013 soybean crop was no greater than 9 MMT, and the country is likely to face a severe soymeal shortage in the domest...

More Things to Keep You Up at Night

The last 15-20 percent of Brazil's soybean harvest is being hurt by too much rain and will result in quality and yield loss. More importantly, the frequent...

Ag Review: Crop Planting Update

Planting on New Policy Transfer payments, technocrat speak for taxpayer money given to beneficiaries, amount to around 5 percent of farm income and can onl...

Trends, Trends, Trends

It is as important to know when a trend is about to run its course as it is to know when one is about to take off.Investors and speculators are forever see...

Market Commentary

While there could be some profit taking by traders with long positions going into the weekend, the prospect that USDA could further increase its U.S. corn...

Livestock Groups Rally Around Corn Ethanol RFS Repeal

A coalition of 11 livestock, poultry and dairy groups have called for committee hearings on the proposal by Representative Bob Goodlatte (R-Virginia) to re...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

Aggies on Trade; Zealots

Regulatory agencies have finally conceded, and USTR will now accept the concept of binding dispute settlement on sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) issues in...

Ukraine; Greens; Obesity; Survey

Europe may not be ready to impose trade retaliation on Russia, but some members of the U.S. Congress are suggesting the use of WTO dispute settlement cases...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

There have not been any interruptions in work at the grain terminals of Sevastopol in regards to sea exports, according to the Ukrainian Agrarian Confedera...

Market Commentary

U.S. farmers continued to reward this week's price rally by selling significant quantities of corn, soybeans and wheat, and this has pressured cash basis b...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Overall, the Argentine wheat market is still depressed because of government policies. The only effective way to reactivate exports is to open the full quo...

Market Commentary

Financial markets heaved a big sigh of relief today when Russia pulled its troops away from the Ukrainian border, and stocks roared back to erase yesterday...

President’s Budget Cuts Crop Insurance

The cuts proposed to the crop insurance program were not incorporated into the farm bill, which makes it unlikely that Congress will act on them any time s...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

A biotech conference in Ethiopia with African and European scientists last week has come out strongly in support of using agricultural biotechnology as a m...

Oilseed Highlights

If trade between Russia and Ukraine is disrupted by the current situation, the oilseed most impacted will be soybeans. Oil World Reduces South American Soy...

The Soybean Market and Changing Perceptions

The current soybean market is a far cry from what most analysts expected, and we have once again been reminded that it is wise to be wary when there is a n...

Budget Outtakes and Meat

The staff at the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) continues to watch their long ball knocked foul. Budget Outtakes Some observations on other pa...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

The uncertainty regarding the wheat export program from Ukraine and Russia in the upcoming months is a serious incentive for traders and consumers to incre...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

China In-Country Analysis

China's newly issued regulations regarding feed and feed additive imports appear to be consistent with the government's decision to improve the nation's fo...

Market Commentary

The Black Sea problems brought short covering to the wheat markets and outright buying to corn and soybeans. There might also have been some support for wh...

The Olympics End, the Putin Games Begin

Just the fact that many uncertainties now exist between Russia and Ukraine will likely push more corn and wheat export business elsewhere where there isn't...

Bearish on Ukraine; Other Stuff

The situation in Ukraine is likely worse than many perceive at this time and with larger global impacts. Even North Korea realizes this is an opportunity f...

2014 Crop Revenue Protection Prices Better Than Expected

If prices are high, as they have been the past two years, this program has guaranteed great profits regardless of yields or prices going forward.February w...

Trouble, Excuses and More Trouble

Ukraine has become an important contributor to global food supplies in recent years, which raises the question of what happens if the political situation d...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

GOI has made its intention very clear by announcing that it is committed to the use of biotech and other new technologies for agricultural development and...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

Market Commentary

Soybeans, corn and wheat all closed on or near the day's highs. That is a bullish technical picture for the last day of the week and the month. General Com...

Budget Process to Follow Course of the Farm Bill?

Federal spending is still front and center, and it is also an election year. The best bet for this year is that there will not be a congressional budget...

Fascinated by Export Sales

U.S. corn exports deviation from historic patterns has implications for what exports will be in the rest of the marketing year. Analysis of unshipped corn...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

Cattle on Feed, Poultry Production Numbers

The dynamics between fed cattle marketings and placements are analyzed with their implications for next quarters' beef demand and pricing. Feedlot turnover...

Oilseed Highlights

After several months of very profitable crush margins, the Chinese soybean crushing industry has seen margins collapse to very unprofitable levels in the l...

TPA, Borlaug, Grass and Gluten

A study by Petr Havlik of the International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis concludes that the lower nutritional value of grass means that livestock...

Market Commentary

The extreme movement of soybean prices first boosted grain prices, but ultimately pulled grains to lower closes as well. However, the grains were not trade...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

180; Intolerance; Who?; Stimulus

Somewhat late to a flawed game, the World Health Organization (WHO) is recommending taxes and regulatory restrictions to halt the course of obesity in mode...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Concerns have been mounting that Argentina could completely lose market share in wheat this season and may need to reduce prices by at least $20-30/MT in o...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Ukraine has exported 23.9 MMT of grains since the beginning of MY 2013/14. This is a 36.7 percent increase compared with the same period in MY 2012/13. Rus...

Market Commentary

Soybeans closed higher again for the 13th time during February with the May contract hitting another high. Only corn remained locked in its usual narrow tr...

Market Commentary

The CME March oats closed at an historic high of $5.03 today as U.S. oat supplies are being squeezed. Some of the big cereal makers reportedly have invento...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

According to a comment from Iran, Ukraine may not be able to complete their outstanding corn business because of its dwindling supplies and domestic unrest...

Federal Reserve Taper and Ag Trade

Lower commodity prices in the U.S. will help export market sales, but the catalyst will be the way monetary policy unfolds.In the last two policy meetings...

TPP Threats; Getting Along; Manure

If adding labor to industry groups is a good idea, why not just throw all of the disparate interests onto the same committee and enjoy a literal three-ring...

Commodities Beckon Again

It is interesting to see that investors and investment money managers have not totally forgotten about commodities.Historically, most conservative investor...

Oilseed Highlights

The continued sale for export of so many of last year's soybeans increasingly suggests the 2013 U.S. soybean crop was larger than USDA is estimating. Big S...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

It's difficult to assess the exact volume of Ukraine's remaining corn surplus as farmers logically prefer to keep grain instead of cash because of the coun...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

Market Commentary

There were several comments floating around about U.S. farmers planting more corn acres than a year ago because last year's profits were so big. That won't...

U.S. 2014 Weather Talk Already Starting

There has been talk about the impact of this winter and even some special spring and summer forecasts that are highlighting how the current U.S. weather si...

China In-Country Analysis

China's government has issued guidelines calling for maintenance of the traditional diet as an increasing segment of the population is experiencing chronic...

Wagging Chemo-Phobes

Activists are clogging up U.S. EPA's public comment site on the proposed deregulation of biotech crops that are resistant to 2,4-D. Tail Wagging the Dog U...

“Farmed and Dangerous” Series Hits the Internet

The fight over the image of agriculture, livestock and the food industry has been ongoing for quite some time, but the battlefield is changing. Social medi...

Own Petard; Pick your Poison

The condition of China's cotton stocks is unknown, but it appears there is some confidence that Beijing will not dump its excess on the world market. Own P...

Outlook Conference is Behind Us

One of the primary reasons we said the Outlook Conference numbers would be bearish is that USDA has a history of using a best case scenario from a yield st...

Budget Process Begins with a Leak

According to leaks from the administration, the president's spending blueprint will adhere to the Bipartisan Budget Act agreed to in December that set spen...

Market Commentary

Wheat futures have staged a significant rally since the February WASDE, which farmers have used to sell more wheat. The trouble across the northern Plains...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

India is likely to produce 263.2 MMT of food grains in 2013/14. This is greater than the target of 259 MMT established by the agriculture ministry in Septe...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

What Is Wrong With Being Big?

Farming is like any other business that produces and sells goods and services. Its profitability depends on maximizing productivity, efficiency and economi...

Market Commentary

The severe unrest in Ukraine has the world grain trade casting a wary eye on Black Sea loadings, interior Ukrainian logistics and possible spring planting...

Fun Points from USDA Outlook

If crop insurance had to operate on actuarial soundness with premiums fully paid by farmers, its value would quickly decline over time. The belief continue...

USDA Outlook: Meat and Livestock

A quick rundown on the particulars for meat and livestock in USDA's baseline projections shows per capita meat consumption rising entirely due to chicken.U...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

Oilseed Highlights

At the rate canola plantings are expanding in Canada, there may not be many years before the country's canola area surpasses its total wheat area. USDA For...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Market demand for soybeans has been rather slow this past week with everyone seemingly expecting basis to drop as farmers started selling throughout South...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

The Russian Grain Union supports the government resolution to allow GM seeds for use in sowing as of 1 June 2014. Russian Grain Markets: 12-18 February 201...

Ill-Advised, Poor Protectionism, and Sugar Fight

With the Obama administration's allies abandoning it on the trade policy agenda, U.S.Trade Representative (USTR) Michael Froman announced a plan to try and...

Market Commentary

If rains are disappointing this weekend in Brazil and Ukrainian political unrest continues, corn contracts could temporarily move higher without any assist...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

Market Commentary

Wheat, the soy complex and now corn are all re-emphasizing the lesson to both speculative and commercial traders that excessive reliance upon automated ind...

The Vagaries of Weather

This year's polar vortex brings a whole new focus on weather and its impact on the overall economy.Every speechwriter in Washington, DC who has put pen to...

Oilseed Highlights

In the last few years, food retailers in Europe have shifted away from requiring that the pork and poultry meat they market be fed only with non-biotech fe...

NAFTA, Farm Bill, TPP, Miscellaneous

Both Mexican President Enrique Pena Nieto and Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper will raise the issue of U.S. non-compliance with the WTO on country of...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

According to a recent report, corn consumption in Saudi Arabia will increase by close to 23 percent in the next four years. This will all have to be import...

Presidents' Day

Monday, 17 February is a U.S. holiday. Please note that our office will be closed and the next Ag Perpsectives will be published 18 February.Monday, 17 Feb...

Will Farm Bill Costs Shorten Its Life Span?

USDA's just-released 10-year baseline projections made a bigger splash than normal because of the recently passed farm bill.USDA released its 10-year basel...

Presidents’ Day

Monday, 17 February is a U.S. holiday. Please note that our office will be closed and the next Ag Perpsectives will be published 18 February.Monday, 17 Feb...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

Fractures, Cost and Opinions

Although the European Parliament voted against the biotech maize event 1507, the European Commission (EC) can still move forward in allowing planting to oc...

North American Logistics Not Getting Better

There are still more than 50 vessels waiting to load from the west coast of Canada. That totals more than 2 MMT of grain and oilseeds.We have written on se...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

A study has found that the crop losses in India resulting from pest-related infestations total $8 billion, and there is an opportunity for the pesticide in...

Market Commentary

First notice day for delivery against the March soybean and meal contracts is next week. That alone might keep the markets firm until we get into the deliv...

Sustainability, Unsweet, Drop

Sustainability is the main charge against conventional agriculture, and the larger problem is that the antagonists successfully issue very general but plau...

More Companies Join Trend on Protein Production Standards

In a first, Chick-fil-A restaurants announced a phaseout of all chicken raised with antibiotics within five years. More Companies Join Trend on Protein Pro...

Market Commentary

Overnight trading started out with mixed results amid slack volume, but the soy complex started to rally during the wee hours and carried the grains along...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

Baseline to Baseline

USDA cannot possibly construct a 10-year baseline that predicts or anticipates certain factors. The only thing we can say with confidence is that  une...

Oilseed Highlights

It is hard to predict large Chinese cancellations of U.S. soybean purchases when the country is buying more than it is canceling. China Testing U.S. Soybea...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian seaports increased the volume of grain shipments in January 2014 to 1.2 MMT, 2.9 times more than the total in January 2013. Russian Grain Markets:...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

Market Commentary

If the presence of MIR 162 corn in Chinese soybean cargoes becomes a big problem, it could weaken exporters' abilities to fend off sales cancellations with...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Improved performance in the Brazilian ports has helped reduce the inverse in soybean contracts that has declined to about half the level it was in December...

Trade Negotiations; Obesity Litigation

Lawyers have appealed to the states' attorney generals in 16 states seeking a class action lawsuit against the food industry similar to the successful one...

A Few Takeaways from the February WASDE

Markets seldom trade much in February on prospects for the next crop year, but Monday's WASDE definitely perked up attention. In fact, it was almost exciti...

Thoughts on Two Controversies

The same people who trust science in the pursuit of stem cell research, climate change mitigation and evolution throw it under the bus when it comes to foo...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

The African Agricultural Technology Foundation has received a grant through a USAID-funded program to be used for the commercialization of a Striga weed-re...

Oilseed Highlights

The Brazilian government's crop supply agency (Conab) today reduced its forecast for the Brazilian soybean crop to 90.01 MMT. Producers are also very conce...

Market Commentary

There presently appears to be only one event that could cause aggressive price movement during the next three weeks: the threat related to wheat. General C...

Global Biofuel Growth

It would seem the real future growth for U.S. biofuels lies in the export market.New reports indicate that Navigant Research has released a study projectin...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

The EU allocated 872,000 MT of wheat export licenses last week, bringing the total to 18.2 MMT since the start of the campaign versus 11.7 MMT a year ago...

Bullish USDA WASDE Twice in a Row?

The simple fact is that demand for U.S. soybeans, corn and wheat has been much better than most analytical groups anticipated.USDA released the February WA...

Market Commentary

Markets were quiet overnight and mostly lower with little news ahead of today's USDA WASDE report that was more positive than expected. General Comments Ma...

Farm Bill Done: Debt Limit Up Next

Both the White House and the Republican House leadership are now positioning themselves as to what they each will demand from the debt ceiling legislation...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

Irrelevance; Offers and Withdrawals

EU trade negotiators will reportedly offer their U.S. counterparts tariff elimination on 96 percent of goods, and while tariffs will remain on sensitive pr...

Market Commentary

Corn confidently worked higher through this week. The soy complex tried to follow suit, while wheat traded in a rather indecisive manner. The reassuring fa...

U.S. Hard Red Winter Crop Has Problems

Dry conditions hurt HRW production in two of the last three years. It is looking more likely that this will again be the case in 2014. The only question is...

Groups Seek National Solution to GMO Labeling

A group called the Coalition for Safe Affordable Food, headed by the Grocery Manufacturers Association (GMA) and the National Corn Growers Association (NCG...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

In a situation where milk demand is increasing by 10-11 percent and production by 3 percent, India may not be able to fulfill its needs in 2021 without dra...

Chairman; Vegetables; Bread

The  Senate's confirmation of Senator Max Baucus (D–Montana) as the new U.S. Ambassador to China has resulted in a vacancy on the powerful Finance Com...

PEDv Cases Growing; New Strain Found

Iowa State University has announced that a new strain of the Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea virus (PEDv) has been discovered in samples taken from Illinois and...

Ag Review: The Outlook for 2014

2014 Agripalooza The market, government and technology development will all three conspire to change things in the agrifood sector in 2014. It will be exci...

It is Still about Supply and Demand

The market is being forced to re-evaluate demand by the surprisingly large volume of export sales since the beginning of 2014. This surging demand has also...

Market Commentary

Grain and soy futures markets continue to follow a beat of their own. Much of the beat today was provided by another weekly export sales report that genera...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

Oilseed Highlights

Each week, the trade expects to see the cancellation of outstanding export sales of soybeans to China. Instead, however, there are even more sales to China...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Agricultural products provided approximately 27 percent of all Ukrainian exports for 2013 with grains holding a very significant share of the total agricul...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Argentine farmers are simply not offering their crops for export. A primary reason for this lack of selling is the spread between the official and the blac...

Trade Politics; Biotech; Zambia

Trade Promotion Authority (TPA) is dead for now, and the sudden protectionist pivot in Washington has created a sigh of relief by those in Japanese agricul...

Market Commentary

We see today's futures market action as less important for what it did than what it did not do, and suggest that even in a bear market pattern such as we h...

Oilseed Highlights

The Argentine government is so desperate for foreign exchange and government revenue that it is now threatening to fine farmers who do not sell their old c...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

Farmers’ Major Decision

Today's final passage of a new U.S. farm law will pose a tricky decision for farmers – do they select the short-term protection of the Agriculture Risk Cov...

Market Commentary

Today's strong across-the-board rally by grain and soy futures is a throwback to the sort of price action seen during the bull market days of 2012/13. Gene...

A Few Odds and Ends

There is a lot going on these days on both macro and micro levels that can have direct or indirect influence on grain markets and commodity markets as a wh...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

The recent Egyptian purchase of Russian wheat is reportedly due to the weakness in the Russian ruble that has made Russian wheat exports more competitive i...

Senate Passes Farm Bill; Concerns Still Expressed

It is very likely that the livestock issues, crop insurance concerns, COOL and other matters will return in the upcoming appropriations process.The U.S. Se...

China In-Country Analysis

At the peak of the Chinese New Year sales period, poultry traders have had to suspend business in some areas due to the bird flu epidemic. China's Hog Pric...

Sino-American Policy Problems

The Chinese government continues to impose anti-dumping and countervailing duties against U.S. poultry products, and AmCham China implores Washington to fo...

2013 Biofuel RVO Data

The final numbers for 2013 support EPA's case to reduce the RVOs for 2014 due to the blend wall.EPA released the Required Volume Obligation (RVO) data unde...

Who Remembers Low Prices?

The current marketing environment will lead to some significant changes in attitudes.Two years ago, I hired a 28-year old to work with me in my farm market...

Market Commentary

A hint in the market suggests that Brazil's new crop logistics might not be any better than last year, although there is hope for an earlier start to the s...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

The recent change of the GASC terms that reduces the maximum allowed moisture content to 13 percent is a serious obstacle for French wheat. Without Egypt,...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

More Things to Keep You Up at Night

There are now in excess of 50 vessels waiting to load at west coast Canadian port facilities, and the problem is getting product to the ports. This is begi...

Trade Policy Prediction

When agreement is weak and a lot must get done, the political and logistical solution is big lumpy omnibus bills laden with lots of sweeteners to placate t...

Market Commentary

Markets in general have built more walls of worry this week over U.S. corporate earnings, emerging market concerns and slower growth in China. The bearish...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

India's sugar industry is in dire straits and incurring huge losses. However, the government has created a Sugar Development Fund, and there will now be an...

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