Biofuel policy is constantly evolving, and the EPA’s latest announcement brings another important development for the industry. EPA Proposes Two Options for Reallocation of SRE RINs
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Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Global Pork Overview: Tale of Two Markets

While those countries most impacted by the Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea virus (PEDv) are seeing record-high pork prices, others are experiencing a much more b...

How Big is Big and the Consequences

As the growing season has progressed, discussions about potential yields and crop sizes have come to dominate markets. However, it may turn out to be a mem...

Oilseed Highlights

While many in the Indian soybean industry have hopes the country's crop yields and planted area will rise in the future, the prevailing view is that it wil...

Meaning?; RFS; Correction

Antagonists on both sides of the Atlantic have complained about a lack of transparency in the TTIP negotiations. Now a recently leaked copy of the EU's dra...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Market Commentary

The increased trading activity overnight carried over into the day session, especially in the soy complex. However, the enthusiasm over higher prices dimme...

Pests; Broken; Sequence; Data

Brussels continues to rebut U.S. complaints about its biotech approval system, but not a single approval has occurred this year despite repeated safety cle...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

The Russian Ministry of Agriculture announced that 1.007 MMT of grain were exported as of 16 July 2014 and from the beginning of MY 2014/15 as Ukraine expo...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

South American producers have more problems and less financial support than their North American counterparts, and such difficulties could easily transitio...

Market Commentary

Markets have been greatly oversold, as we have observed before, and were due for a bounce. So when the soy complex began to exert a little upward muscle, c...

Market Commentary

Yesterday afternoon's weekly crop condition report set the tone for today's corn market. The 76 percent good/excellent rating so late in July along with 56...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

In light of recent large fines levied by the U.S. government on financial institutions for avoiding strict Sudanese trade sanctions, many banks and trading...

World Wheat Outlook

Wheat is still considered politically significant, especially in certain countries where it is the principal agricultural crop or a principal food. If worl...

Oilseed Highlights

China's soymeal exports rose to 301,731 MT in June, a 128 percent increase over a year ago. The sharp rise has been driven primarily by a shortage of India...

A Bore; Reality

India commercially exports rice, soymeal and wheat, invests in a space program and has now committed billions to a BRICS bank. All the while, it claims pov...

CBO Releases Long-Term Budget Outlook

The 2011 and 2014 budget deals and the 2013 sequester have made a significant difference in total federal spending, mostly in the discretionary area, but h...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Projected Returns Drop below Break-Even Levels

The implication going forward is that corn acres are in jeopardy for the 2015 crop year under the current market price structure. Soybeans have had a signi...

TTIP Angst; Local Joke

Those on the U.S. agriculture side express disappointment that Brussels is still pushing geographic indicators in TTIP discussions, while bringing nothing...

Market Commentary

It is worthwhile noting that index funds are reportedly still holding about 300,000 long corn contracts. Corn condition ratings were unchanged in today's r...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

The weather remained unstable in Romania and Bulgaria last week, impacting the harvest. Exporters in Bulgaria are only offering feed wheat at the moment as...

More Scrutiny for EPA’s Waters of the U.S. Rule

To date, the one EPA action that has triggered a complaint by the National Farmers Union (NFU) is the setting of the 2014 biofuels volumes, which its lette...

China In-Country Analysis

The latest USDA 30 June Acreage Report helped push down soybean futures significantly. As a result, Chinese soybean trading companies and crushers were hit...

Laughing; Ukraine; Hopeful and Concerning

It is Republicans who would be on the defensive in November if they are blocking a TPP agreement that has strong support from the business community. Laugh...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

While India has been challenged over its recently enacted Food Security Act that is viewed by developed nations as a violation of the WTO Bali agreement, s...

APHIS Withdraws GE Information Sharing Rule

The purpose of the rule was to help state and tribal governments better review and comment on the notifications and permit applications received by APHIS a...

Market Commentary

Soybean futures turned higher at the opening bell this morning on more USDA soybean sales announcements. Wheat futures turned sharply lower, which pulled c...

Bring on the Heat

Extended forecasts released yesterday continue to point toward cooler than normal temperatures for most of the Corn Belt. This means the soy complex could...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Oilseed Highlights

Germany's biofuel industry association today said a new greenhouse gas reduction scheme passed yesterday is likely to result in reduced biofuel consumption...

Market Commentary

Corn futures closed fractionally higher in consolidating trade on both sides of yesterday's closes. The Malaysian plane disaster lit up the market, briefly...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Trading Market Spreads 101

The strategy of buying a futures contract in a nearby time frame, then selling it just before that contract expires and replacing it by purchasing a more d...

Look Out; Expensive Straw

Given that the EU has refused to adopt science-based SPS measures and Trade Commissioner Karel De Gucht has just promised the European Parliament that bord...

FSIS Proposes Retailer Traceability for Ground Beef

USDA's Food Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS) has proposed new regulations to provide more information on the beef that is used for grinding, which woul...

Market Commentary

Wheat reluctantly followed corn higher overnight, but Chicago and KC contracts gave it all back by the end of the day session and closed mixed. MGE spring...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Harvesting is difficult in the eastern regions of Ukraine where the anti-terrorist operation is in progress, and some areas in Luhanska and Donetska oblast...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

An interesting development is occurring in Brazil with the Paranagua paper market, which is normally used as a hedge and reference for farmers, traders and...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Awaiting Default; Miscellany

USDA's Economic Research Service looked at mandatory and discretionary SPS measures for imported fruits and vegetables versus actual trade flows and conclu...

Organic Mush; Domain Angst

Europe's wine industry is in a dispute with the internet domain body called ICANN. The industry fears that new domain categories called .wine and .vin coul...

Oilseed Highlights

Argentina's biodiesel exports fell sharply in 2013 as a result of the anti-dumping duties imposed by the EU. In response, the Argentine government initiate...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Market Commentary

After being down as much as 16 cents, new crop November soybeans fought their way back to close unchanged. They even traded in green numbers briefly. Their...

World Corn Outlook for 2014/15

We expect that estimated U.S. corn production will rise close to 14 billion bushels and, moreover, that favorable conditions for other important corn-growi...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

Iraqi grain traders advise that it has become impossible for Syria to deliver the wheat to Iraq that was arranged in June 2013 as truckers are not able to...

Farm Bill Payments Could Be Coming

USDA's latest WASDE report puts the new Price Loss Coverage (PLC) and Agriculture Risk Coverage (ARC) programs more in play with news of good crop conditio...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Market Commentary

Wheat and soybean futures were showing double-digit gains most of the day, while corn trailed far behind with 3-4 cent gains. U.S. financial markets were v...

China In-Country Analysis

China's Ministry of Agriculture (MOA) issued a policy document aimed at reducing food loss during grain production. One of the notable reasons behind this...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

Starting tomorrow, the EU will introduce an import levy on corn that is based on the last 10 day-average price of U.S. corn to Rotterdam versus the EU's ma...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Lesser Prairie Chickens and Zimbabwean Elephants

Kansas has announced that it will oversee the breeding of  Lesser Prairie Chickens (LPCs) for release into habitat. Although the concept in relation t...

Financial Readjustment

Farmers have used the bonus depreciation allowance aggressively for several consecutive years to buy new equipment and build new farm facilities to reduce...

Farm Bill Implementation Hearing

Congress made a number of major changes to crop support programs, and farmers will be faced with some decision-making regarding new coverage options. It is...

Market Commentary

As expected, today's release of the July WASDE added to the overall bearish tone to the market that has persisted since USDA's quarterly stocks reports and...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

USDA Numbers Bearish as Expected

USDA did not raise the corn or soybean yields in the July WASDE, and most analysts believe that will occur in August. Increased yields, of course, will mea...

China; Trade; India; Water

Some trade policy analysts are convinced that politics will prevent any progress on trade agreements this year. Yet the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) neg...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

India's 2014/15 budget attempts to target economic growth at 7–8 percent over a three-four year period after less than 5 percent growth for the past two ye...

Rooster Impotence

Broiler production expansion has been somewhat lagging in the past two years for several reasons, and now the major breeding stock provider Aviagen Group h...

The “Noisy” Uptick of Food Prices

It is the costs of food and energy that affect consumers first and impact them most, especially those with lower incomes, and those prices are on the rise...

Ag Review: Examining China

China's Broad Developments China is spending money on agriculture and trading futures, but self-sufficiency remains an unlikely outcome. China Pork Revolut...

Oilseed Highlights

Coca Cola and Pepsi have announced they will remove brominated vegetable oil (BVO) from many of their popular soft drinks, but not because the FDA has foun...

Better TF; Emotions

Trade Facilitation (TF), the WTO concept agreed to at Bali last year for reducing and making transparent the transactional costs that governments impose on...

Market Commentary

USDA will release its July WASDE numbers at 12 PM (EDT) tomorrow. That also gave us some choppy trade today, but volume was very good in corn and soybeans...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Approximately 63 MMT of grain may be harvested in Ukraine for MY 2014/15, which would be one of the largest in the country's history.  Grain and port...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Recent declines in CBOT futures prices extend out through 2015 and are making South American producers nervous about the future margins that they can expec...

Doomed; Ditch; Big Guns

For the industry and services sectors, agriculture has always been a thorn when it comes to trade negotiations. That remains the case, but a heartening app...

Market Commentary

Grain and soy futures prices continued to leak lower, although at a somewhat less frenetic pace. Some non-commercials appear to be putting on short positio...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

While Turkey's demand for both soybeans and soymeal is rising due to expansion in the poultry and livestock sector, it can only be met by increasing import...

Oilseed Highlights

As a result of insufficient rainfall in key growing areas, India's soybean plantings as of 4 July are reported to be about 90 percent less than the 4.3 mil...

Debate over Economic News

A number of economic reports for June were released last Thursday, and the news is now full of debate about whether these new statistical indicators are go...

Weather, Crops and Prices

Ever since USDA began providing this year's first weekly crop condition reports up to the present, the conditions reported for corn and soybeans have spark...

Marketing Impacts

The U.S. originally opposed a dispute settlement mechanism in the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement on issues surrounding Sanitary and Phytosanitar...

Market Commentary

The selling pace in the corn market has slowed as the December contract gradually slips towards the $4.00 level. Friday's corn supply and demand should not...

Surreal in Nigeria and other Policy Curiosities

Nigerian  Minister of Agriculture Akinwumi Adesina went to great lengths to assure the public that biotechnology was not being used in Nigerian agricu...

It’s a Lonely Time for Bulls

The traditional speculative trading funds are now holding a major short position in wheat (near a record) and have exited their long positions in corn and...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

China In-Country Analysis

China's rejection of U.S. DDGS has resulted in those cargoes being resold to its neighbors,  which are also the major export destination markets for i...

Climate Change Impact on Agriculture

Potential impacts of climate change that do not consider agricultural adaptation are of limited use and insight. This is a long-term trend, so anticipating...

Market Commentary

Excluding the liquidating July contracts, today's highs for soybean and corn futures contracts never came close to last Thursday's closes. Despite the mark...

Oilseed Highlights

The combined Argentine and Brazilian biodiesel production is forecast to  rise by 1 MMT in 2014, driven by Brazil's increase in the mandatory biodiese...

COOL Attracts Attention Outside of Ag

The COOL Reform Coalition, representing a diverse group of businesses, has sent a letter to Congress urging USDA to abandon its implementing rule for the l...

One Long-Term View

The first thing catching our attention is that while the U.S. 2014 soybean plantings rose more than 8 million acres higher than last year and the new 2014...

TTIP Titanic; U.S. Myopic

U.S. aggies have shared tough talk with European officials about their expectations for the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP), and EU A...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Market Commentary

Today's holiday-shortened session again featured, if that is the right word, lower corn and soybean prices. The 4th of July holiday is typically the point...

Silly; Litigation Please

The Obama administration has consistently shown its belief in the efficacy of biotechnology, and its next step should be preparing the legal briefs for a W...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

On 1 July, the European Commission Standing Committee on the Food Chain and Animal Health approved cancellation of the current restrictions on imports of U...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

The bearish result of USDA's data on Monday is causing adjustments to occur in South American pricing of corn and soybeans. Increasing the complexity of th...

Market Commentary

Soybean futures continued to slump lower in the aftermath of USDA's estimate of 84.8 million soybean acres, visions of a 3.8 or 3.9 billion bushel soybean...

Biotech; Policy Shorts

Since a recent study acknowledges that organic foods are garnering market share by stoking fears about biotech, the conventional food industry should deman...

Conservation Compliance for Crop Insurance Rule Issued

Section 2611 of the 2014 Farm Bill links a farmer's eligibility for the premium crop insurance subsidy to compliance with conservation provisions of the 19...

Some Post-Report Thoughts

There is now probably not much to be said about yesterday's USDA stock and acreage reports that is new. However, there are a few things gleaned from them t...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Market Commentary

There is no doubt that USDA's acreage and stocks estimates combined with the fancy weekly crop condition ratings have suddenly created a very bearish envir...

Huge Increase in U.S. Soybean Plantings: Now What?

If the U.S. does produce a huge soybean crop this fall that causes soybean prices to fall well below $10/bushel, the greatest short-term impact likely will...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

Turkey may pull out of its customs union with the EU if the EU/U.S. Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) is ratified without its inclusion...

Market Commentary

USDA's soybean acreage estimate blew the market away, coming in nearly 3 million acres above the March estimate. Corn stocks were 100 million bushels above...

China In-Country Analysis

It was announced on 24 June that China will revise its food safety law to include tougher rules for safety and stricter supervision. However, decentralized...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

Most analysts are now predicting that the 2014 Russian and Ukrainian crops will be higher than last year with Russia's estimated at 52-54 MMT and Ukraine's...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

USDA Reports Bearish

The quarterly stocks numbers for corn and soybeans were slightly bearish. The soybean number at 405 million bushels was 27 million bushels higher than expe...

Swine Herd Down More Than Anticipated

A reduction in the swine herd due to the impact of the Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea virus (PEDv) had been anticipated, and analysts had expected USDA's quarte...

Fresh; Leverage; Rant

The White House is withholding a $277 million Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) aid package to El Salvador until that country ends a domestic corn and...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

CBO Issues Report on the RFS

The purpose of the report was to address concerns among policy makers and analysts about the feasibility of meeting the higher standards for blending biofu...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Following pressure from the sugar lobby, largely the cooperatives, GOI has agreed to bail out the sugar industry once again and has increased the import du...

Does Rain Make Grain or Not?

Everyone associates crop stress with heat and dryness. It can also be caused by too much water, and this is starting to attract some attention as the rains...

Market Commentary

Standard commodity analysts may soon adjust their stories to proclaim, "Production will be large but demand is even larger!" Similar market dialog occurred...

Oilseed Highlights

Demand for animal feed is on the rise in China as a result of an end to avian flu outbreaks this spring and a recovery in swine profitability. This increas...

Some Off the Wall Questions

In the course of searching for something new and different to write about, we found ourselves thinking about a variety of generally unrelated off the wall...

Policy; CAFOs; Forum Shopping

Beijing will reportedly experiment with making a deficiency payment to farmers in order to bridge the difference between the market price and what farmers...

Elements of Beef Expansion

Herd expansion still relies on the profitability of the cow-calf sector, which is easy to forget with record cattle prices. Retaining heifers, though, is a...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Market Commentary

KC July HRW was up 7 cents as rains are again delaying harvest in Kansas and posing the threat of quality deterioration. Rains have also delayed the Mid-So...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Because of inconsistent export policies out of Argentina and recent declines in regional exportable wheat supplies, the Brazilian government will reduce th...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Ukrainian grain producers will need 1.5 billion m3 of natural gas to dry the grain and oilseed crops to be harvested in 2014 and want guarantees from the g...

Market Commentary

Funds certainly did not show anxiety over the size of their July positions today. Prior to the market opening, there were still about 142,000 contracts of...

Spanking; Rules

U.S. trade negotiators are asserting that regulatory convergence under the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) will offer more safety dat...

World Perspectives on the Move

Please note that World Perspectives has changed locations and our new address is: 1301 Pennsylvania Ave. NW  Suite 501, Washington, DC 20004 Please...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Federal Reserve Mostly Staying the Course

There was some expectation that the Federal Reserve Board would address the federal funds rate in a more aggressive manner than it did, but the official wo...

30 June and Beyond

The 30 June acreage figures will be etched in stone at the top of everyone's 2014/15 supply/demand estimates for the entire crop year until or unless they...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

According to the FAO, Egypt's wheat and corn crops this year will be slightly above average size this year, but it expects that the country will have to im...

Oilseed Highlights

The European Food Safety Agency (EFSA) has determined that Monsanto's MON 88302 biotech rapeseed event is safe for human and animal health and poses no thr...

Market Commentary

Corn futures closed lower on favorable weather prospects that encourage thoughts of an above trend yield. Old crop soybeans and the old crop/new crop sprea...

Global Oil Supply Buffering ISIS Impact in Iraq

While the effect of the Iraqi ISIS situation has been limited to date and the increase in U.S. and world production has provided a buffer, there are certai...

Market Commentary

There was plenty of market chatter this morning trying to explain the last minute surge in soybean and soymeal futures last Friday. Trade this week could s...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Why North Dakota Has Joined the Corn Belt

Has it been the new plant genetics that have pushed corn and soybeans farther north and west, or has it really been the shift to a Corn Belt climate across...

China In-Country Analysis

The 17 June state soybean reserves auction size was 358,558 MT. However, weak demand was evident as sales totaled only 72,852 MT, which is a lower turnover...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

The excessive rains that have persisted in Bulgaria and Romania for more than two months peaked last Thursday night. Farmers in the most severely affected...

Fights and Battles

The war on fat, sugar and salt rivals the longstanding war over biotechnology. The latest involved a broadside from lawyers Rick Frank and Bruce Silverglad...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

India's new government plans to revamp the flagship scheme of its predecssor, the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (MNREGA), and h...

Oilseed Highlights

Because of the heavy rainfall, some farmers meeting in Minnesota said they have lost as much as 10-15 percent of their crops to flooding. At this point, th...

Senate Appropriations: Minibus Parked

The Senate minibus appropriations bill, which covered the Agriculture, Commerce, Justice, Transportation and Housing and Urban Development Departments, has...

Market Commentary

Corn futures were slightly lower overnight and early today before gradually pushing toward slightly higher. There was never any concerted selling pressure...

Wheat is Not Just Wheat

There is only one class of corn and one of soybeans, but there are officially six classes of wheat produced in the U.S. that all have different properties...

Looking East; Rubbish; Another FTA

Should  the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) reach fruition this year, the pressure on Brussels to recalibrate will be great as capital markets have al...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Prices for Proteins at All Time High

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics' latest release for May 2014, the seasonally adjusted prices for red meat, poultry, eggs and even fish (driven...

Oxymoronic; Alternative Motive

It is time for Congress to reassess the RFS and rewrite its requirements to match both the technical feasibility and market economics that currently prevai...

Market Commentary

Export sales were generally light, reflecting increased competition from other origins and the buyers' hopes for lower prices to come. However, we should p...

Global Food Security Challenge

The goal of ending world hunger has always had universal support, but for many years the challenges involved in achieving this have tended to stay on the f...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

The Argentine soybean harvest is 90 percent complete, while farmer selling is only 35 percent finished, which is significantly behind the historical pace...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Ukrainian milling wheat and feed wheat prices declined on the domestic market as farmers in the southern regions started harvesting winter wheat and have r...

Market Commentary

KC HRW futures were the star of the market today. Poor yields and fear that heavy rains might lower the quality of what is harvested coalesced to push KC J...

End Game; Rice Price

Rice is one of those thinly traded (less than 10 percent of production moves into international trade), highly subsidized commodities that annoys everyone...

Oilseed Highlights

Global biodiesel production has grown to reach approximately 29.12 MMT this year and has become the market for about 7.3 MMT of soyoil, 9.6 MMT of palm oil...

The Soybean Puzzle – Again

Why are markets ignoring all of the numbers that on paper add up to an incredibly tight supply situation?USDA's weekly crop condition report rated 76 perce...

Market Commentary

Wheat prices were lower early, reaching the lowest levels in over four months. However, this brought on some bargain hunting buying interest that helped pr...

House Majority Leader and Immigration Reform

Representative Eric Cantor (R-Virginia) became the first House majority leader to be defeated in a primary, based largely on immigration. Now Representativ...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

Morocco's Attijariwafa Bank is financing $300 million for Russian wheat purchases during the 2014/15 import period. The agreement was signed in Moscow last...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Market Commentary

Expectations of great crop ratings today coupled with few, if any, weather problems continue to pressure corn prices lower. Some analysts are now starting...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

The excessive rains in Bulgaria and Romania may result in a larger share of feed versus milling wheat this year. In 2013/14, both countries exported about...

It Could Be a Slow Summer

There are few potential crop production problems around the world as we are heading into the last half of June. It is going to be difficult to encourage an...

China In-Country Analysis

China's announcement on 7 June that that it would suspend the issuance of import permits for U.S DDGS has resulted in rising prices for domestic DDGS as we...

New RFS Reform Proposal: U.S. Advanced Biofuel Only

The bill would require all advanced biofuels (undifferentiated advanced, biodiesel and cellulosic) to be produced in the U.S. as well as continue to meet t...

Bye-Bye Bali; Common Language

India and the G-33 group of developing nations are upset that affluent WTO members are asking for more data on New Delhi's agricultural subsidies. Common L...

Trade and Biofuel Skids

Canadian Agriculture Minister Gerry Ritz has taken a more strident position regarding agricultural trade liberalization via TPP than perhaps the Japanese a...

Market Commentary

Wheat followed corn's gains despite the fact that Egypt bought Romanian and Russian wheat yesterday. No one expected U.S. wheat to trade. The EU reported t...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

There is hope that India's new government will bolster the economy's upward turn with revisions in policy. Industrial production rose in April 2014 as infl...

CFTC Reauthorization

The House reauthorization bill contains a number of reforms and addresses many of the Dodd-Frank Act provisions. It should be able to move through that cha...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Too Many Shuttle Loaders

Operating margins for shuttle loaders have been exceptionally good in recent years because of good crops and strong demand, but are now becoming more compr...

EPA Extends Comment Period on Water Rule

This delay is considered a major tactical victory by most livestock and agriculture groups. If approved, the new guideline would effectively remove the wor...

Market Commentary

Last year at this time, the red hot cash market and record high basis bids led the soy futures market to high prices and a wide old/new crop inverse. This...

Oilseed Highlights

USDA increased its estimates for Argentina's domestic soymeal consumption yesterday to reflect rising exports of mixed feeds. While most of these exports i...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Meat, Critics and Consumers

As the world recovers ever so gradually from the 2008-10 recession and its aftermath, the percentage of the world's population considered to be middle clas...

Unchlorinated; Screwy

The House will not complete the fiscal 2015 agriculture appropriations bill until next week, but already there have been some harmful amendments adopted. U...

Majority Leader Who Delayed Farm Bill Ousted in Primary

Yesterday the number two Republican in the House lost his seat in an upset primary. Ironically, Cantor has tried for two years to schedule a legislative ag...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Buyers in China are reported to be interested in buying Russian grain, and Rosselkhoznadzor (the Federal Service for Veterinary and Phytosanitary Surveilla...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Market Commentary

June WASDEs are seldom major market movers, and today's report was certainly was not bullish. As if by signal, there was a general across-the-board sell of...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

This year Argentine farmers have sold 1.57 MMT fewer soybeans than the total for the same date a year ago. The most important information for the market is...

Selective; True Colors; Inequality

FAS Agricultural Counselor Allan Mustard (nominated to be U.S. Ambassador to Turkmenistan) has issued a report exposing how New Delhi is substantially subs...

Oilseed Highlights

India's soybean-producing regions are expected to be particularly vulnerable to inadequate rains from this year's monsoon, and there also is concern about...

Trade Policy: Restrictions; UnSchocked

Calculations by the EU indicate that safeguard measures against its exports rose by 10 percent in 2013, and some of the prime blockers included India, Chin...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

Egypt has decided to delay its planned increase in the price of fuel for industry, individuals and homes as the belief is that it would be bad for the over...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Market Commentary

This morning, Brazil's Conab revised its estimate of that country's 2013/14 corn production upward to 77.9 MMT, second only to last year's 81.5 MMT. M...

A Week’s Worth of Differences

The trading record shows how thoroughly the price action of November soybeans has been dominated by the July contract, which is to say, by the very tight o...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Ethanol Election; Studies in Failure

Biofuel policy has always been political, and now there is a reported election year effort to use EPA's final decision on the 2014 Renewable Fuel Standards...

House Agenda: Where Ag Fits Into Election Year Politics

While it is likely Congress will work toward having a continuing resolution by the end of the year, three appropriations bills have been tabbed to move for...

China In-Country Analysis

Historically, China has established a minimum purchase price only for buying directly from farmers and replenishing provincial reserves. Now the central go...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

Both the Russian and Ukrainian wheat crops are developing under generally favorable conditions, and most analysts estimate that the combined 2014/15 surplu...

What Happens Next?

Soybeans remain the wild card. The big money refuses to let go of the soybean market despite several recent head fakes that looked like the start of a majo...

Market Commentary

The primary bearish factor hanging over the corn and soybean markets is the size of the speculative length. Exiting and rolling of positions by large specu...

Canada Legislates Better Rail Service

The uproar over the plight of Canada's rail logistics has been an issue since the 2013 harvest that was 50 percent larger in volume than the 10-year averag...

Brazil’s Demands; Green Washing; Efficiency

The activist group called Anonymous has reportedly released Brazil's demands for settlement of the WTO cotton case against the U.S., and it is sure to rile...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

To retain agriculturists in the farming business, India's government is eager to provide income security and assist the farming communities in conserving w...

Market Commentary

The combination of double-digit gains in both July and December corn contracts and the engulfing candlestick pattern of the prior day's close are indicativ...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Looking at SNAP Backward and Forward

According to the House Budget Committee report, SNAP spending that totaled $78 billion in 2012 is scheduled to decrease slightly over the next 10 years, bu...

Protein Consumption Still Down with Lower Feed Costs

2014 feed costs are projected down about $6 billion from last year, a drop of more than 11 percent. However, the bow wave effect of high feed costs is stil...

Oilseed Highlights

Because of a smaller than normal soybean crop in 2013 that was also of poor quality, India is facing a shortage of soymeal this year to feed its domestic a...

Ag Review: The Middle East and U.S. Agriculture

Middle East Squeeze The energy abundance brought about by the fracking boom is causing OPEC heartache and could eventually spark another Middle East food c...

Market Commentary

A somewhat interesting development in the soy complex is that old crop contracts appeared weaker than new crop in both soybeans and meal. That condition ne...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Research Misdirection and Adequacy; Food and Weapons

There is gnashing of the teeth by some in Washington because public funding of agricultural research is largely ignored. However, this ignores two importan...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

A number of South American corn exporters are very scared by the current pricing dynamics because they need movement through the ports, storehouses and oth...

Turk, Pak, Braz; Food Religion

It is entirely feasible that a settlement in the WTO cotton case will involve U.S. taxpayers subsidizing Brazilian cotton farmers so that they can continue...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Ukraine's 2014 winter grains harvest is forecasted at 26.2 MMT, almost 1 MMT more than in 2013. The increase is expected as a result of the gain in average...

Market Commentary

Buying into the present downward trend in corn contracts does seem to make sense for the trader who has sufficient capital and a realistically defined exit...

Political Instability in Ukraine – the Fertilizer Fallout

A major determinant for the competitiveness of Ukrainian fertilizer on global export markets is its cash cost of production, and the country's current conf...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

Egypt is considering revisions to its wheat import specifications, particularly moisture, which could once again enable the importation of French wheat. GA...

Market Commentary

Markets were soft again overnight with the soy complex leading the way lower. That softness turned into a much harder downturn once the regular day trading...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Oilseed Highlights

The current marketing year is on track for the combined U.S. exports of soybeans, soymeal and soyoil to set a record. There is also an expectation that thi...

EPA Clean Air Plan: Biomass Options Questioned

Perhaps the most telling comment from EPA's Science Advisory Board  (SAB) was the recommendation to benchmark electric generation with an ethanol plan...

China In-Country Analysis

China's soymeal price fluctuated up to $654/MT during the week of 26 May as most of the country's large and mid-sized feed producers are stocking up ...

Unintended; False; Survey Says

The group People for the Ethical Treatment of Animals (PETA) has sparked furor with its "Got Autism?" campaign that seeks to link consumption of dairy prod...

Market Commentary

It was another interesting day in the soy complex. July futures went right down to technical support at $14.78 overnight and then reversed course when the...

Land Rents Headed Down?

The longer-term reality is that unless there is a crop production problem someplace this year that significantly changes the U.S. or world supply situation...

EPA Clean Air Plan: What to Watch for in Ag Impacts

If this plan survives inevitable court challenges, there will be an opportunity for EPA to move this model on to other sectors such as agriculture, particu...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

Excessive rains in Bulgaria and Romania are threatening the wheat quality there as the moisture favors the spreading of diseases. These rains are often cou...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Cow Paddy; Madness; Bogus; Sailed

The Cairns Group, a coalition of agricultural exporting countries, is trying to reinvigorate WTO negotiations for placing stronger limits on domestic farm...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

As India's milk demand rises for many reasons, the sourcing of good, quality milk is one of the main concerns for the large dairy processing companies as s...

Market Commentary

All markets gradually succumbed to moderate selling pressure as the day wore on. Corn, wheat and soybeans were all lower by noon. It was also the last trad...

Global Biodiesel Roundup

Argentina, the world's top biodiesel exporter, is considering a proposed reaction to the EU's imposition of anti-dumping duties on its biodiesel and is als...

What About Argentina?

Seemingly lost in all of the soybean market talk is anything relevant to Argentina. It has been in the background for a very long time for many reasons, ne...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Oilseed Highlights

Why has the U.S. sold almost five times as much soymeal for export in the next marketing year than the average sold in the previous three marketing years a...

Market Commentary

Volume picked up somewhat during the day session in which corn prices ground lower, wheat gave up its overnight gains to join corn in the red and soybeans...

Trade Agreements; Speculation; Approps; Biotech

European filmmakers and EU culture ministers are reportedly rallying against the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) negotiations, chargi...

Super-Villainous GMOs

When we think of superhero/super-villain movies and their common characteristics, it is really not a big stretch to compare them to the strident controvers...

Poultry Leading Mergers and Acquisition Activity

Feed costs for poultry producers are down about 19 percent year-over-year and demand for chicken is strong, given the high prices caused by reduced beef an...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russia is reported to have exported 24.104 MMT of grain as of 21 May 2014 and from the beginning of MY 2013/14. However, a Rusagrotrans official expects Ju...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Chinese buyers continued to purchase old crop soybeans from Brazil for June-August. In contrast, the Argentine market remains very quiet, although there is...

Fuzzy Econ and Science; Biotech and Biofuel

U.S. EPA proposed a reduction in the biofuel mandate, but is reportedly considering walking back a bit on the decision. Lending credence to that outcome is...

Market Commentary

The grain and soy futures market price action has evolved into a contest between extremely tight old crop soybean supplies and old crop futures and just ab...

Market Commentary

The corn market is signaling technical weakness, and we wonder how long discretionary fund longs will be willing to hang on. They need a weather problem to...

Spring Into Summer

USDA's initial projections for U.S. 2014/15 crop production in the May WASDE seemed quite optimistic at the time they were released in the midst of the ear...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

MCC/TF; Denials; Shorts

Ideas of all stripes can be threatening to some, but Europe faces the unique risk of completely offshoring the pursuit of scientific ideas. Tie MCC to TF T...

Oilseed Highlights

Industry officials yesterday indicated the Brazilian government is expected tomorrow to increase the minimum amount of biodiesel to be blended into diesel...

Election Year Issues Kick in: EPA in Crosshairs

Senate Agriculture Committee Republicans have signed a letter to EPA Administrator Gina McCarthy regarding a number of regulatory matters before the agency...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

Contracts have been awarded in Egypt for the building of two UAE-financed wheat silos there. These are the first two in the joint UAE/Egypt project to buil...

Market Commentary

Corn was steady to 1-2 higher much of the session in trading volume that was something less than half of normal levels ahead of the long weekend. China wil...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

With prevailing heat wave conditions and indications of a delayed monsoon, several Indian states have issued an advisory stipulating a delay in crop planti...

Once Again We Underestimate Fund Demand

Back eight or nine years ago when the ethanol boom happened and drove prices of everything to new all-time highs, much of that new buying was generated by...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Ag Appropriations Moving Forward

Both the House and Senate Appropriations Committees are working within the constraints of keeping total discretionary funding at $1.014 trillion, which cam...

Morals; Uncertainty; Baloney

The EU's import ban of seal products on "public moral concerns" was upheld by the WTO Appellate Body and could greatly broaden the use of moral claims for...

FY 2015 Appropriations Bill

The House passed the agricultural appropriations bill for FY 2015 yesterday, and its biggest controversy revolves around USDA efforts to make school lunche...

Oilseed Highlights

Data released yesterday by China's General Administration of Customs indicates Chinese soybean processors have sharply increased their soymeal exports in t...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Choosing a Cat Fight

Washington offers multiple and varied opportunities to engage in the agricultural policy debate, and today presented two competing options that are both an...

Market Commentary

With two weeks of the crop year left to account for, wheat shipments are more than 120 million bushels below USDA's estimate. There seems no way that gap c...

Reprise: The U.S. and World Grain Prices

The recent price movements of the world's most widely-watched soybean, corn and wheat futures contracts have called to mind once again the question of what...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

As of 16 May, Ukraine's grain exports totaled 30.5 MMT, 43.2 percent more than during the same period in the previous market year. Included were 8.8 MMT of...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Brazil needs to seriously consider trade issues as it may become the leading soybean exporter next season. Minister of Agriculture Neri Geller declared tha...

Market Commentary

The U.S. Federal Reserve Bank released the minutes from its April meeting today, and the stock market seemed to like what it read. General Comments The U.S...

Dark Prince; Breakthrough

China will correctly exploit science, technology and mechanization to advance its own agricultural production, but it will err if it worries about the Lest...

Oilseed Highlights

There are indications that at least five more cargoes of Brazilian soybeans are ether on their way to the U.S. or soon will be. Additional shipments of Bra...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

The Chamber of Commerce in Egypt has announced that it is working with four banks there to provide financing for the expansion of the poultry industry in U...

Market Commentary

It was a rather strange day for grain and soy markets, which saw prices swinging in wide trading ranges. General Comments It was a rather strange day for...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

GI Campaign

The EU is subsidizing an education campaign in the U.S. with the goal of having its farmers clamor for geographic indicators (GIs), but the trick is for Br...

Farmland, Credit Conditions and the Fed’s Exit Strategy

We've been in a period of low interest rates and high commodity prices that have helped drive up farm real estate values. Now the Federal Reserve is consid...

Soybean Market Fun and Games

The soybean futures market seems to ignore the seemingly inevitable, bearish shift in soybean supply/demand fundamentals in 2014/15. It is almost as though...

China In-Country Analysis

China's Ministry of Agriculture (MOA) and Ministry of Education together recently launched the "Training Plan for New Type Professional Farmers." This init...

Reorganizing USDA for Trade

Given the importance and volatility of non-tariff trade barrier issues, the catalyst behind the reorganization was the need to have a central trade authori...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

The heavy pressure on the Black Sea market last week was driven by the multinational trading houses after the collapse of the futures' markets in the U.S...

Wobbles; Cost of Purity; Traps

A House Agriculture Appropriations subcommittee considers a $20.9 billion FY 2015 funding bill tomorrow that would provide the Farm Service Agency with a $...

Market Commentary

Soybeans again defied all of the bearish fundamental inputs and rallied sharply on significant fund buying. That left many in the trade looking for a solid...

The Issue of Rail Logistics

The situation in Canada is far worse than in the U.S., and all of this has prompted much talk about how long the logistical problems will last. Some are ev...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

India’s Election Result and the Global Phosphates Market

The prospect of a new government with a strong economic agenda has recently helped the INR recoup some of its losses, which could result in improved afford...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Mr.Narendra Modi, known to be very pro-technology, is expected to be India's new prime minister with the predicted landslide victory for the Hindu-dominate...

New Farm Program: Choices Ahead

Congress made a number of significant changes to crop support programs with the Agricultural Act of 2014, and farmers must make a one-time enrollment choic...

Dying for Rice; Faithless; Naked Tommy

It is hard to complain after pondering the conditions in North Korea where it is reported that Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un has ordered up some reforms in ag...

Market Commentary

November soybean futures were again about the only agricultural commodity to trade on the plus side today. China said it will sell 300,000 MT of soybeans f...

More Things to Keep You Up at Night

This late spring will result in fewer corn acres across the Northern Plains. North Dakota, for example, was expected to plant 2.95 million acres of corn in...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Market Commentary

Good wheat crop prospects elsewhere, the lack of demand from importers and lower offers from Black Sea sellers seem to have overcome the impact of the drou...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Second BSE Case in Brazil

The cow was born on a farm it never left and where animals are fed by pasture grazing and mineral salts, rather than manufactured feed. Korea, Egypt, Peru...

Killing; Disclosure; El Niño

There is a very vocal opposition to TTIP in Europe, and politics will shift further against it when EU Parliament elections next week likely empower more p...

The Market’s Next Task

For the past three years, strong market prices were needed to encourage sufficient crop production to meet growing demand. The next task for the market to...

Oilseed Highlights

Lieutenant General Mi Zhenyu, former deputy director of the Chinese Academy of Military Science, recently wrote that the inclusion of soybean protein from...

Market Commentary

Grains seemed neglected during the overnight session as witnessed by a very light trading volume. After a slow and mixed start, the day session saw more tr...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Ukrainian Minister of  Agrarian Policy and Food Ihor Shvaika met with EU commissioners on 13 May to discuss trade-related issues and further developme...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Trade Policy Angles

One has to greatly sympathize with the conclusions reached by Copa-Cogeca, Europe's central farm organization, that the EU Commission's pursuit of a trade...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Shipments of Argentine soybeans are quite delayed this season due to a late harvest, quality issues and problems in the port of Necochea that limit the dra...

Oilseed Highlights

Farmers in northern Argentina evidently have found a way of avoiding the nation's 35 percent export tax by smuggling their soybeans into neighboring Paragu...

HFT is Manageable

At today's Senate Agriculture Committee hearing, even Andrei Kirilenko, the former CFTC chief economist and now MIT professor brought in to critique HFT, o...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

The trade reports that Egypt's payment for government-purchased grains is slowing significantly with delays in opening letters of credit for tender purchas...

Demand is the Thing

The world's combined ending stocks of wheat, corn and soybeans are projected to be almost 88 MMT greater than they were just two years prior. Said another...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Market Commentary

It was Turnaround Tuesday for the corn and soy complex futures markets as prices rebounded from yesterday's sinking spell. The turnaround began during the...

U.S.-Korea FTA Under Fire with Implications for TPP

Four Democratic members of the House of Representatives issued a press release criticizing the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) regarding numbers related t...

China In-Country Analysis

China's auction of state temporary soybean reserves will begin 13 May 2014, according to official sources, and it is estimated that the size will reach 3 M...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

For the moment, the trend of increasing quality that was observed in the Bulgarian and Romanian wheat crop during the past five years will be reversed as f...

Reality; Over-Certified; Amish

Policymakers in recent years have sought ways to offset the market's tendency toward commoditization in agriculture and thus raise farmer income by extract...

Show Me the Weather

It looks from here like wheat might have the tightest fundamentals going into MY 2014/15. Weather's impact on feed grains production (either negative or po...

Market Commentary

Evidently, the funds that have been long decided to start liquidating some of that length following last Friday's USDA reports as well as what appears to b...

Court Rejects Challenge to 2013 Biofuels Mandate

At issue were whether EPA set the 2013 RVOs too late to be valid, a precedent that will have implications for this year, and if both the overall and advanc...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

India's milk production is declining, and prices are rising with the approach of summer when demand typically increases. Stocks of skimmed milk powder (SMP...

May USDA WASDE

USDA's total U.S. wheat production estimate came in below what the trade was expecting. We also note that USDA's hard red winter wheat production estimate...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Good News, and More of the Same

It doesn't happen often, but it looks like Democrats and Republicans in the Senate and the House will be sending a reauthorization of the Water Resources R...

Sugar Antidumping Case against Mexico

The Department of Commerce initiated an investigation last month to determine if the Mexican government has subsidized the country's sugar production and w...

Market Commentary

Corn and wheat markets were lower and soybeans mixed in very light overnight trading volume ahead of this morning's USDA reports. In spite of a bearish new...

Truth in Labeling

Consumer Reports has now found that 81 percent of those surveyed believe the organic label means that no pesticides were used in production, which is erron...

Issues and Questions

While the May WASDE provides a first look at USDA's analytical insights for the following crop year, it seems the remainder of each old crop year can no lo...

Oilseed Highlights

The soybean surplus on the Chinese market will apparently worsen beginning next week as Sinograins announced today that it will auction 300,000 MT of soybe...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

China Stockpiling Pork

China's fresh pork prices are at their lowest point since September 2010 and down 19 percent from September of last year. As a result, the Chinese National...

Market Commentary

Overnight trade was mixed with soybeans trying to reverse this week's downward trend, while wheat and corn were a little weaker. The day session saw simila...

Diversity; Trade Policy Curiosities

Whatever was discussed between Japanese Prime Minister Abe and U.S. President Obama a few days ago becomes more curious by the day. Diversity Marketing Pla...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Chinese crushers have returned to demand soybeans from South America. Following two months of inactivity and desperate attempts to resell cargoes of prior...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russia's annual report covering food safety has noted that measures taken by the government to stabilize the situation in agriculture will result in genera...

Market Commentary

Based on anecdotal evidence, it seems likely that next Monday's USDA report should show corn planting progress reaching close to 60 percent, or even more,...

Wheat Market Conundrum

The U.S. wheat futures markets are facing a dilemma. Should they price the relatively bullish wheat supply/demand balance, or the relatively bearish world...

Trade Deficit and Energy

Energy is one of the most interesting aspects of the U.S. balance of payments account. Higher energy production in the U.S. is transforming the nation's tr...

Market Commentary

Unlike last year, soybean bulls are getting no help whatsoever from the cash market. Soybean crushers are relaxed, and export demand has fallen to a trickl...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Ag Review: Commentary on Opportunities in Agriculture

Opportunity: Complementarity The TTIP negotiations are an opportunity, despite the skepticism. The challenge is overcoming all of the pitfalls and finding...

Oilseed Highlights

The U.S. cottonseed shortage has been exacerbated by the nation's dairy and cattle feeding sectors' continued strong demand for its usage in direct feeding...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

Wheat farmers in Kenya are very concerned because of an outbreak of wheat stem rust. No control for this type of wheat rust exists as it was first seen in...

Free Riders: Bali, Aid, Beef

African trade ministers have apparently decided to act like Cape buffalo with a decision last week that reverses their commitment at the WTO ministerial in...

Legislative Agenda for the Year

There are only about 40 scheduled days of legislative session left for the remaining 2014 legislative calendar. That leaves the Congressional schedule very...

Market Commentary

It was the record-high temperatures and strong winds across the Southern Plains over the weekend that rallied wheat markets. Some weather forecasters were...

More Things to Keep You Up at Night

Stats Canada released its quarterly stocks estimates this morning, and today's numbers again highlighted the magnitude of Canada's 2013 crop production. S...

South America Highlights

Current economic dynamics in Brazil and Argentina are creating some opportunities for the agricultural sectors in both Uruguay and Paraguay. Brazil The Bra...

China In-Country Analysis

China's milk powder imports reached a record-high 109,000 MT in March as AQSIQ recently announced that imported milk products without labels in Chinese are...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Anti; Mysteries; Shorts; and Surveys

France is insisting that if the EU does not invoke a ban on imports of hogs and pork as a result of the Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea Virus (PEDv), it will uni...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Expanding the Foodie Concept

Recognizing the intellectual superiority of small, local and organic over conventionally-produced foods, a new initiative will seek to mimic the approach i...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

The EU temporary ban on imports of select Indian fruit and vegetables could have wide implications for a variety of other produce subject to the same quara...

Tokenism; Fishy; Man Bites Dog

Members of Congress have demanded that Japan agree to zero tariffs on agricultural products, but they apparently will not be getting their wish. Tokenism E...

Economy Poised for Second Quarter Growth in 2014

Consumer spending was unusually strong as it surged 0.9 percent in March, the largest gain since 2005 with the exception of one month in 2009. The release...

U.S. HRW Wheat Crop Collapsing

The smallest HRW production number going all the way back more than 45 years was 620 million bushels in 2002, although It's not likely we can see a disaste...

Market Commentary

Wheat had a great deal of bullish news today, which started with the Kansas crop tour results. General Comments Markets were slightly higher in quiet overn...

Oilseed Highlights

The government of China recently issued its first official Agricultural Outlook Report, covering the period 2014-2023. Among other projections in the repor...

Old Perceptions and New Perceptions

It occurs to us that if nothing else, the flipping of the calendar page to May will force a re-examination of the perceptions that directed the market's pr...

What is Meant

European Commission President José Durâo Barroso is in Washington, and his message is that the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) agreem...

State of the Livestock Industry

Trade was a major topic covered by most of the witnesses testifying at yesterday's hearing held by the Livestock, Rural Development and Credit subcommittee...

Market Commentary

Given what was happening with soybeans and corn, today's price break by CME wheat seemed about in line, and KC HRW's losses actually appear rather modest...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Policy Shorts

U.S. House Ways & Means Trade Subcommittee Chair David Nunes (R-California) warned today that if President Obama fails to compel Congressional passage...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Market Commentary

Wheat futures prices, led by KC HRW, responded to pessimistic reports from the Plains HRW crop tour and little sign of drought relief in the offing. Genera...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Prices for the 2014 Russian grain harvest are expected to be influenced equally by both political and climate-related factors. Due to the pending holidays,...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Argentina remains largely out of the global soybean market as exporters are not offering beans with regular quality (basis 34 percent, minimum 34.5 percent...

HFCS Trends: Red Bull a Bear for Corn Sweetener

Energy drinks were a $350 million market in 2000 and reached about $9 billion in 2013, a 2,471 percent growth. Red Bull is the category's market leader.Bac...

Welfare; Betrayal; Externalities

If one believes the organic industry, it produces more ethical food that is safer and more nutritious. Some in the organic community now want to incorporat...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

Farmers in Zimbabwe continue to be unhappy with the government's set purchase price for local corn that is said to be about $30/MT lower than the cost of p...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Oilseed Highlights

Two organizations in India have concluded that the country should focus on increasing the use of soybeans to alleviate protein malnutrition, rather than ex...

Market Commentary

The Kansas crop tour got underway this morning, and the first report from the tour popped KC wheat futures to double-digit gains. General Comments Markets...

Corn’s Changing Dynamics

The plain fact is that we all missed the pent-up corn demand and end user stock building, inspired by the low harvest time prices that seemed very attracti...

Ignoring the Valuable; Biotech Labeling Retort

Given that 70 percent of processed food in the U.S. may contain at least one ingredient from food biotechnology, there are at least three constitutional la...

Stats Canada Acreage Data

There is some concern that western Canadian farmers' planting plans are still in flux because the spring season has been so slow to arrive.Stats Canada rel...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Market Commentary

After a sharply higher early overnight trade, grain and soy futures gradually calmed down to finish the first trading session of the week in relatively pla...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

The general perception in the market is that the wheat is overpriced due to the high political risk premium now included since the start of the Ukrainian/R...

China In-Country Analysis

While the long-term fundamentals suggest that the ongoing westernization of China's diet should lead to increased imports of soybeans, corn and pork, the c...

Food Aid Is Secondary Priority of Food Aid Programs

According to some policymakers, the requirement that aid be sent on U.S.-flagged vessels might be the most important issue.The White House has long ma...

Cellulosic Ethanol May Not Reduce Emissions

There was another blow to the cellulosic mandate this week as well as a new study challenging the notion that advanced biofuels reduce greenhouse gas emiss...

Notes from Asia

The real story from Asia continues to be the expansion of the middle class and how that will continue to drive demand for everything from agricultural comm...

Market Commentary

Markets were mixed in very light volume throughout most of the night session, but the tone gradually changed for several reasons. General Comments Markets...

Trade Trumped; Greek Spin; Cow Poop; Etc.

Given that free trade is about unleashing economic comparative advantage, there is much to worry about in Greek agriculture. Security Trumps Business, Agai...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

With the IMD predicting a 56 percent probability of a deficient or below-normal monsoon for India, the impact on the farm sector and the country's overall...

Possible Brazilian Mad Cow Case

This potential case could be similar to a 2012 incident in Parana where an animal developed the prion, or abnormal, pathogenic agents that induce folding o...

Oilseed Highlights

Today it was confirmed that three employees of Marubeni's Columbia Grain subsidiary were arrested in China. Although it is believed to be soy-related, the...

Trade Truth; Middle East, Commodities

Turning public opinion into a supportive force that can overcome special interests will require political leadership in Washington, Brussels, Tokyo and man...

Too High or Too Low

When we or anyone says that a particular market price is too high or too low, it may sound like we are saying that the market is wrong even though the mark...

Market Commentary

After some overnight weakness, prices at all three wheat futures markets rallied to post double-digit gains. The apparent worsening situation in Ukraine an...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Trade Convulsions; Reorg

The EU wants the U.S. Congress to pass Trade Promotion Authority (TPA) as soon as possible, but the European resistance to fixing current trade barriers is...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russia exported 194,800 MT of sunflower oil in March 2014 (a 5 percent gain compared to February 2014 and 48 percent more than March 2013), the highest&nbs...

Market Commentary

Signs indicate that demand for old crop corn remains brisk, and corn exports are holding to a level that appears to justify USDA's latest estimate of 1.75...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Argentina is not as affected as Brazil by the Chinese soybean situation, but its beans have been found to have quality problems that could be a reason for...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Oilseed Highlights

China's Ministry of Commerce today raised its forecast for the country's April soybean imports. However, the recent defaults on soybean imports and rumors...

Market Commentary

The soybean market was rife with rumors of Chinese defaults and a Chinese government crackdown on letters of credit, supposedly issued to pay for commodity...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Citing a Few Potential Market Factors

The potential for unforeseen internal and external influences to move prices in either direction, short-term and/or long-term, remains at least as large as...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

Egypt's government has advised that current stocks and orders of wheat will last until 19 June 2014, while the country's wheat crop has a very wide range o...

Foreign Assistance: Unneeded Advice

Indeed, it is hundreds of U.S. domestic programs that fail the government's Program Assessment Rating Tool (PART), but continue to be funded.Experts gather...

USDA Creates Investment Fund

The industries eligible for this new federally-facilitated investment fund include bio-manufacturing, advanced energy production, local and regional food s...

U.S.–Japan in the Spotlight

While a complete TPP agreement is not expected, the weights of geopolitics, national security and economics have converged to pressure President Obama and...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

U.S. Soybean Outlook

We note that every year at this time we have looked at projections for rapidly building soybean ending supplies in the U.S. that have yet to materialize, e...

Ethanol Roundup

Interestingly, as the import window into the U.S. appears to be closing, the Brazilian Sugarcane Industry Association (UNICA) is reporting that domestic et...

China In-Country Analysis

The Chinese government's stricter inspections of imported DDGS is currently affecting the domestic rapeseed meal price and also a factor in its growing dem...

Market Commentary

There were reports of a frost/freeze across Argentina that might have done some damage to late-planted corn and soybeans, but this news didn't cause a ripp...

Market Commentary

Today's early trade saw wheat prices firm, while corn and the complex traded mostly with red numbers. Volume was fairly active for a pre-long weekend sessi...

Oilseed Highlights

Because China is such a dominant soybean importer, the crushers there think they have the upper hand in forcing sellers to renegotiate prices to a lower le...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

The Soybean Puzzle

Does the fundamental outlook for soybeans as seen right now in April 2014 deserve an old crop/new crop inverse so much wider than during April 2013?For som...

Easter Inflation

Not since the corn price run-up in 2008 have eggs been as expensive, and their prices are at a six-year high. Easter Inflation In keeping with seasonal dem...

Currency; TPP Deal; Waste; Bad Seed

The signals regarding TPP just days before President Obama heads to Japan are mixed and confusing. Currency Conundrum Some powerful congressional Democrats...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Soybean selling by Argentine farmers is projected to substantially increase going into June, potentially to a record level, as a result of the increased ha...

Market Commentary

With the Ukrainian/Russian crisis always lurking and the U.S. HRW crop not in good shape, wheat futures prices are moving up and down nervously. General Co...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Italian Reform; Curbing Speculators

Italy's proposed agricultural policy modifications include some 21st century concepts, while others appear to be more of the same, making it only partial r...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

As of 11 April 2014 and from the beginning of MY 2013/14, Ukraine has exported 28.338 MMT of grain. According to Ukrainian Grain Association President Vlad...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

GAO Reports on RFS Impact on Refineries

The study was requested by Senators David Vitter (R-Louisiana) and James Inhofe (R-Oklahoma) with the specific topic of how regulatory costs impact the com...

Market Commentary

The strength of wheat and soybeans and fear that the Ukrainian situation is escalating probably kept the corn market from closing lower. General Comments T...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

Jordan will need to continue importing close to 100 percent of its needed wheat supply, according to USDA FAS in Amman. With the influx of Syrian refugees,...

Oilseed Highlights

The National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) today released a surprisingly large soybean crush report for March that was the main reason soybean futu...

The Potential Impact of U.S. Soybean Imports

The U.S. 2013/14 soybean year will be unique in a number of ways. One of its most unusual elements will be record-large imports with a majority of the fina...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

With 27 MMT of exports, the EU wheat carryout stocks will be significantly tighter than last year. However, Western Europe's crop seems to be developing fa...

China In-Country Analysis

Due to the Chinese government's corn procurement in major production provinces, it seems probable that China's domestic corn prices have hit bottom and wil...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Market Commentary

Corn tried to tag along with wheat, but never got better than 8-9 higher and actually faded slightly at the close. General Comments Three weekend events pu...

Chemophobes; Off-Expertise

Separating otherwise safe, concurrent uses of chemicals is as wrong a strategy as the Maginot Line. Organic matter is chemical matter at its base. Chemopho...

UN Publishes Sustainability Guide

Its premise is that traceability is one of the greatest tools for impacting sustainability. If traceability is going to develop, it has to either be mandat...

More Things to Keep You Up at Night

There have been several announcements from the Canadian grain trade recently about big new investments in grain handling infrastructure. There have been s...

The Corn Outlook is Changing

It will now take more than a record yield per acre to again start talking about 2014-15 corn ending supplies exceeding 1.5-1.6 billion bushels.We've gone f...

House Passes Budget Resolution

The budget cuts domestic programs by $791 billion in the years 2016-2024, while it increases defense spending by $483 billion. The House passed its versio...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Market Commentary

It has been a very volatile week with Wednesday's USDA WASDE sandwiched in the middle and providing a bullish burst to corn and soybeans. General Comments...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has suggested that it is too early to predict the monsoon pattern and El Niño's effect, but it has also issued w...

Trade Negotiations Struggles; Correction

An American tourist can see the sights in a half-dozen European cities within a week or less, yet USDA will need 6-7 months to look at the meat inspection...

Meat and Livestock Overview

Retail beef prices have tested the consumer limit with 13 percent growth over the past year, while pork prices have been tempered by increased slaughter we...

Oilseed Highlights

Reports indicate Chinese soybean importers have defaulted on 10 or more cargoes of U.S. and Brazilian soybeans, fewer than in 2004 when buyers forfeited up...

Dodd-Frank and CFTC Reauthorization

The House Ag Committee, which holds congressional oversight authority over the CFTC along with the Senate Ag Committee, decided to use the CFTC reauthoriza...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

STA; Corpse Logic; Condiments

TPA is dead, long live STA. When a concept is in trouble, public relations experts start rebranding. Evolving Acronyms TPA is dead, long live STA. When a c...

Market Commentary

The market's tepid price action following yesterday's bullish (for soybeans and corn) WASDE was considered disappointing to market bulls, and long liquidat...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

The main concern about Argentine soybeans this season relates to protein content. Current protein levels are below normal this harvest and that fact is mak...

Cake; Meat; Gorilla

When it comes to stoking global economic activity, the 800-pound gorilla rattling some markets is the potential slowdown in China's growth. Late as Usual R...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Market Commentary

The changes USDA and WOAB analysts made to their 2013/14 U.S. and world supply/demand estimates tracked closely with private expectations in terms of direc...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

The president of the Russian Grain Union said Russia's current financial problems may negatively impact the planting of grains. Ukraine has planted early s...

Selective Science

Britain's Soil Society, the organization pushing organic agriculture in the UK, is apoplectic over a study in the British Journal of Cancer. Selective Scie...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

Egypt's Red Sea Ports Authority (RSPA) has announced that it will be developing a new wheat import facility in Adabiya Port that is expected to handle abou...

Market Commentary

Today's higher grain and soy prices reflected the market's expectation that tomorrow's WASDE will be bullish. General Comments Although trading of a number...

The April WASDE and Thereafter

Tomorrow's report could have considerable importance in market terms since non-commercials are so heavily invested on the long side of corn and soybeans.US...

Advanced Biofuels Hearing In Senate

The need for the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) and other federal policies to support the industry and attract investment was a key theme of today's hearing...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

News UpdatesMEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST COMMENTSFrance Export Cereals (FEC) has said that the country needs to exert more effort in developing Egypt's privat...

Oilseed Highlights

It now appears the EU's 2014 rapeseed production will be up sharply from the last two years and approach the record 2009 crop. South American Soybeans Begi...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

The corn plantings in Romania and Bulgaria have started under favorable weather conditions, and we estimate that the corn acreage will marginally decrease...

China In-Country Analysis

13 Chinese government agencies, led by the Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM), recently issued guidelines aimed at establishing a unified agricultural market me...

Market Commentary

Soybeans again had a 20-cent trading range with prices lower most of the session and the old crop/new crop spreads losing some ground. There was talk of th...

A Look at Northern Plains Profit Potential

There are only three crops that show a positive net return, and barley is really not an alternative today.The table below is from the Carrington, North Dak...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

Ag Review: Crimea and it's Implications

Crimea River History suggests that geopolitical troubles have less impact on food production than fundamentals like the weather. Crimea: Present Situation,...

Railroads, 2014 Volumes and Court Case

According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), rail cars spent twice the time between loading and unloading in the Midwest than last year d...

Impacts of Geopolitics and Technology

Improving Japanese farm labor misses the larger shift that needs to occur if the nation's agriculture is to survive liberalization under TPP.U.S. trade neg...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Prices of skimmed milk powder (SMP) have soared in India. There is a shortage as the government of India (GOI) did not regulate SMP exports and the deficit...

Minor Crop Acres

The issue with some of these very minor crops is that it doesn't take much of an increase or decrease in acreage to have a major impact on prices.We get so...

Market Commentary

Wheat turned decidedly weaker early this morning and dragged corn lower as well, while soybeans again traded both sides of unchanged much of the session. G...

Biodiesel Tax Credit

While the biodiesel tax credit has been extended retroactively in the past, it has had a unique impact.The Senate Finance Committee considered and passed i...

Clear as Mud; Biotech

EPA's recently proposed "interpretive guidance" on Clean Water Act regulations made for some fun in the agriculture community this week. Clear as Mud Norma...

The Focus on High Frequency Trading

The topic of high frequency trading (HFT) of equities and commodities has become all the rage and raises several questions that generate a wide difference...

PEDv Update; Hogs and Pigs Report

There is good news this week regarding the number of PEDv cases during the latter part of March, and there is seemingly some hog market reaction. PEDv Upda...

Monkey See; Risks Ahead; TPP Rollercoaster

Former Lehman Brothers chief economist John Llewellyn notes that developing countries with sufficiently bad scores in terms of budget deficits, trade defic...

Market Commentary

Total U.S. corn export commitments have now reached USDA's latest forecast for all of 2013/14, actually 2 million bushels above it with five months of the...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

Oilseed Highlights

It is particularly interesting that the U.S. has not seen a drop-off in soymeal exports to the EU in 2013/14. U.S. Soymeal Export Sales and Shipments Very...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

As of 31 March 2014, Ukraine has exported 27.351 MMT of grain from the beginning of the market year, and preliminary forecasts indicate the country's grain...

Market Commentary

Since USDA's reports on Monday, the futures price action has given farmers the opportunity to unload some of their ownership and given users the opportunit...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

Extenders; Mercantilists; Cotton; Geopolitics

A successful public forum by the WTO should be centered on why imports are actually good for everyone and emphasize that the focus cannot be solely on the...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

South American soybean prices have been hesitant to follow futures markets higher. The result is that Argentine basis continued to weaken last week. Corn T...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

There is a problem with Egypt's domestic grain silos project, financed with funds from the United Arab Emirates (UAE), that was intended to build 25 storag...

Primitivism; Disincentive; DETs

Researchers at the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) estimate that Argentina's biodiesel production would increase by 9.6 percent if the...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

Biodiesel Blenders’ Credit in Senate Bill, Out of House

With strong support for passing some extenders, the biodiesel tax credit and the cellulosic tax credit both have strong individual supporters who are likel...

Oilseed Highlights

India's soybean processors are struggling to supply the domestic poultry and aquaculture markets with soymeal as they cannot source enough supplies. USDA R...

Market Commentary

The wheat market has backed off after its long bull run and has begun to cast weaker technical signals. This has caused some liquidation selling and the un...

March Report Thoughts

That the trade's analysis of stocks and acreage turned out to be so close to USDA's survey results is another way of saying that yesterday's reports were s...

Argentina Petitions EPA for Biodiesel Pathway

Some Argentine producers have been through this process previously with sorghum that was imported and used to make ethanol in California.Argentina's biodie...

China In-Country Analysis

More crushers have suspended or slowed production in order to mitigate crushing losses. It is projected that soyoil prices will remain weak, but there is l...

Market Commentary

The market felt like wheat again became the short leg of the corn and soybean markets. If you don't trust a rally, you sell something else against it. Gene...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

We Finally Have the Numbers!

You can plug any yield you like into these acreage estimates today and come up with bullish and bearish outcomes.Today's USDA quarterly stocks and planting...

Wrong; Imperfect; Smuggled and Quantified

A WTO agriculture committee meeting revealed why it will be difficult to get the Doha negotiations back on track. Naturally Wrong Recently installed Federa...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

The EU has now allocated  22.7 MMT of wheat export licenses versus 15.1 MMT a year ago, and its wheat balance will be dangerously tight at the end of...

Oilseed Highlights

U.S.  soybean exports thus far in 2013/14 are now at 39.835 MMT and unshipped soybean export sales stand at 4.609 MMT for a total of 44.444 MT, ...

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