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Market Commentary

Overnight trading started out with mixed results amid slack volume, but the soy complex started to rally during the wee hours and carried the grains along...

Oilseed Highlights

It is hard to predict large Chinese cancellations of U.S. soybean purchases when the country is buying more than it is canceling. China Testing U.S. Soybea...

More Companies Join Trend on Protein Production Standards

In a first, Chick-fil-A restaurants announced a phaseout of all chicken raised with antibiotics within five years. More Companies Join Trend on Protein Pro...

Sustainability, Unsweet, Drop

Sustainability is the main charge against conventional agriculture, and the larger problem is that the antagonists successfully issue very general but plau...

Market Commentary

If the presence of MIR 162 corn in Chinese soybean cargoes becomes a big problem, it could weaken exporters' abilities to fend off sales cancellations with...

A Few Takeaways from the February WASDE

Markets seldom trade much in February on prospects for the next crop year, but Monday's WASDE definitely perked up attention. In fact, it was almost exciti...

Trade Negotiations; Obesity Litigation

Lawyers have appealed to the states' attorney generals in 16 states seeking a class action lawsuit against the food industry similar to the successful one...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian seaports increased the volume of grain shipments in January 2014 to 1.2 MMT, 2.9 times more than the total in January 2013. Russian Grain Markets:...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Improved performance in the Brazilian ports has helped reduce the inverse in soybean contracts that has declined to about half the level it was in December...

Oilseed Highlights

The Brazilian government's crop supply agency (Conab) today reduced its forecast for the Brazilian soybean crop to 90.01 MMT. Producers are also very conce...

Market Commentary

There presently appears to be only one event that could cause aggressive price movement during the next three weeks: the threat related to wheat. General C...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

Thoughts on Two Controversies

The same people who trust science in the pursuit of stem cell research, climate change mitigation and evolution throw it under the bus when it comes to foo...

Global Biofuel Growth

It would seem the real future growth for U.S. biofuels lies in the export market.New reports indicate that Navigant Research has released a study projectin...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

The African Agricultural Technology Foundation has received a grant through a USAID-funded program to be used for the commercialization of a Striga weed-re...

Market Commentary

Markets were quiet overnight and mostly lower with little news ahead of today's USDA WASDE report that was more positive than expected. General Comments Ma...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

Bullish USDA WASDE Twice in a Row?

The simple fact is that demand for U.S. soybeans, corn and wheat has been much better than most analytical groups anticipated.USDA released the February WA...

Farm Bill Done: Debt Limit Up Next

Both the White House and the Republican House leadership are now positioning themselves as to what they each will demand from the debt ceiling legislation...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

The EU allocated 872,000 MT of wheat export licenses last week, bringing the total to 18.2 MMT since the start of the campaign versus 11.7 MMT a year ago...

Market Commentary

Corn confidently worked higher through this week. The soy complex tried to follow suit, while wheat traded in a rather indecisive manner. The reassuring fa...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

In a situation where milk demand is increasing by 10-11 percent and production by 3 percent, India may not be able to fulfill its needs in 2021 without dra...

Irrelevance; Offers and Withdrawals

EU trade negotiators will reportedly offer their U.S. counterparts tariff elimination on 96 percent of goods, and while tariffs will remain on sensitive pr...

Groups Seek National Solution to GMO Labeling

A group called the Coalition for Safe Affordable Food, headed by the Grocery Manufacturers Association (GMA) and the National Corn Growers Association (NCG...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

U.S. Hard Red Winter Crop Has Problems

Dry conditions hurt HRW production in two of the last three years. It is looking more likely that this will again be the case in 2014. The only question is...

Market Commentary

Grain and soy futures markets continue to follow a beat of their own. Much of the beat today was provided by another weekly export sales report that genera...

Ag Review: The Outlook for 2014

2014 Agripalooza The market, government and technology development will all three conspire to change things in the agrifood sector in 2014. It will be exci...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

Oilseed Highlights

Each week, the trade expects to see the cancellation of outstanding export sales of soybeans to China. Instead, however, there are even more sales to China...

Chairman; Vegetables; Bread

The  Senate's confirmation of Senator Max Baucus (D–Montana) as the new U.S. Ambassador to China has resulted in a vacancy on the powerful Finance Com...

PEDv Cases Growing; New Strain Found

Iowa State University has announced that a new strain of the Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea virus (PEDv) has been discovered in samples taken from Illinois and...

It is Still about Supply and Demand

The market is being forced to re-evaluate demand by the surprisingly large volume of export sales since the beginning of 2014. This surging demand has also...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Argentine farmers are simply not offering their crops for export. A primary reason for this lack of selling is the spread between the official and the blac...

Trade Politics; Biotech; Zambia

Trade Promotion Authority (TPA) is dead for now, and the sudden protectionist pivot in Washington has created a sigh of relief by those in Japanese agricul...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

Market Commentary

We see today's futures market action as less important for what it did than what it did not do, and suggest that even in a bear market pattern such as we h...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Agricultural products provided approximately 27 percent of all Ukrainian exports for 2013 with grains holding a very significant share of the total agricul...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

The recent Egyptian purchase of Russian wheat is reportedly due to the weakness in the Russian ruble that has made Russian wheat exports more competitive i...

Oilseed Highlights

The Argentine government is so desperate for foreign exchange and government revenue that it is now threatening to fine farmers who do not sell their old c...

Farmers’ Major Decision

Today's final passage of a new U.S. farm law will pose a tricky decision for farmers – do they select the short-term protection of the Agriculture Risk Cov...

Senate Passes Farm Bill; Concerns Still Expressed

It is very likely that the livestock issues, crop insurance concerns, COOL and other matters will return in the upcoming appropriations process.The U.S. Se...

A Few Odds and Ends

There is a lot going on these days on both macro and micro levels that can have direct or indirect influence on grain markets and commodity markets as a wh...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

Market Commentary

Today's strong across-the-board rally by grain and soy futures is a throwback to the sort of price action seen during the bull market days of 2012/13. Gene...

Who Remembers Low Prices?

The current marketing environment will lead to some significant changes in attitudes.Two years ago, I hired a 28-year old to work with me in my farm market...

2013 Biofuel RVO Data

The final numbers for 2013 support EPA's case to reduce the RVOs for 2014 due to the blend wall.EPA released the Required Volume Obligation (RVO) data unde...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

China In-Country Analysis

At the peak of the Chinese New Year sales period, poultry traders have had to suspend business in some areas due to the bird flu epidemic. China's Hog Pric...

Sino-American Policy Problems

The Chinese government continues to impose anti-dumping and countervailing duties against U.S. poultry products, and AmCham China implores Washington to fo...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

The recent change of the GASC terms that reduces the maximum allowed moisture content to 13 percent is a serious obstacle for French wheat. Without Egypt,...

Market Commentary

A hint in the market suggests that Brazil's new crop logistics might not be any better than last year, although there is hope for an earlier start to the s...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

State of the Union Hinting at the State of Fuel Standards?

The President's comments about natural gas vehicles raise the question of whether the renewable fuel standard (RFS) will inch toward an alternative fuel st...

Trade Policy Prediction

When agreement is weak and a lot must get done, the political and logistical solution is big lumpy omnibus bills laden with lots of sweeteners to placate t...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

India's sugar industry is in dire straits and incurring huge losses. However, the government has created a Sugar Development Fund, and there will now be an...

Market Commentary

Markets in general have built more walls of worry this week over U.S. corporate earnings, emerging market concerns and slower growth in China. The bearish...

More Things to Keep You Up at Night

There are now in excess of 50 vessels waiting to load at west coast Canadian port facilities, and the problem is getting product to the ports. This is begi...

Oilseed Highlights

Today's USDA export sales report showed a pronounced slowdown in net new export sales of soybeans and soybean products. With Brazil now harvesting its new...

Price Does Matter

Buyers/users are looking at prices that are sometimes half of what they were just 12 months ago. They are, as the saying goes, loading up the wagon, coveri...

Market Commentary

USDA/FAS reported export sales for last week of about 1.878 MMT of old crop corn and 105,700 MT of corn for 2014/15. The old crop sales exceeded by far wha...

Trade Policy after the Election

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nevada) does not want his vulnerable members to face any compromising votes before the November election. This means t...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

Farm Bill Livestock Provisions

From a livestock perspective, the farm bill is notable for what provisions are not in it. Farm Bill Livestock Provisions From a livestock perspective, the...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Argentina's government is desperately trying to encourage farmers to sell their crops as quickly as possible, but the lack of trust that farmers have for t...

Market Commentary

Large-scale fund liquidation during the day session set the stage for old crop soybean contracts to sink 13-16 cents by the close. Adding to the bearish at...

Trade Agenda Trouble; Farm Bill Reversal

U.S. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nevada) gave definitive proof today that the trade policy agenda is in trouble. Trade Agenda Trouble U.S. Senate...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Ukraine's Parliament approved the state budget which includes VAT refunds to Ukrainian grain exporters. This will increase the profits of Ukrainian grain p...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

Farm Bill Commodity Title

As expected, the final conference report of the new farm bill was filed last night. It contains several new commodity programs of interest.As expected, the...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

Iran and Ukraine have announced that they will be working much closer together on the development of joint efforts in the agriculture sector.   News...

Oilseed Highlights

Last Friday's USDA export sales report only served to re-affirm the torrid pace of U.S. soybean and soymeal exports in the current marketing year. It is be...

Good, Bad and Ugly

Ethanol makers are claiming that they could export a lot more of the fuel if EPA would simply mandate the production. However, this means that ethanol woul...

Market Commentary

The shakeout of developing countries' currencies and world stock markets appears to have subsided at least for now. The U.S. dollar is higher, although it...

The Strange World of World Wheat

While wheat production has declined in the U.S. over the last two-three decades, it has expanded elsewhere in the world. That U.S. wheat should still be th...

China In-Country Analysis

Chinese society's public debate on GM food has greatly intensified and evolved from a health issue to one of national security. China's Beef Price Soars be...

Farm Bill Conference Report Update

The farm bill conference managers are pressing ahead with the final conference report today as they try to get conferees to sign off on it, even though som...

Sharply Lower Initial CRC Prices in 2014

The Crop Revenue Coverage (CRC) program has provided U.S. farmers the same thing as an enormously good put option on up to 85 percent of their proven...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

The Meat Case

Those who default to the viewpoint that "big is bad" rarely get a good rebuttal. Now the U.S. Poultry and Egg Association has responded with a little histo...

Market Commentary

Corn and wheat traded steady to higher most of the session, while soybeans had another day of back and forth trading. General Comments Markets were quiet a...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

The EU allocated 819,000 MT of wheat export licenses last week, bringing the total to 16.7 MMT versus 10.8 MMT allocated at the same time last year. Millin...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

In the first seven months of 2013/14 (April–October 2013), foreign direct investment (FDI) in the food processing sector was $2.15 billion, and there are e...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

Ethanol on Offensive; Farm Bill Next Week?

The ethanol industry is arguing about the impact on corn prices and the farm economy from a reduced RFS. Ethanol on Offensive Before Comment Period Ends In...

Market Commentary

USDA's sales totals in today's weekly export sales report did nothing to attract buying in the soy complex, although the market did climb back and trade ju...

Oilseed Highlights

India, Vietnam, and Indonesia are the next three largest growth areas for soymeal usage after China. All three countries have now begun to see consistent s...

A Railcar–My Kingdom for a Railcar

Canada has an enormous transportation problem that is likely unprecedented, and it might rival Brazil in terms of shipping delays before all is said and do...

Farm Bill and Farm Policy

The UN's International Resource Panel is concerned that water, soil and biodiversity will suffer trying to meet rising global food demand and recommends co...

Market Commentary

Wheat was today's market leader with gains of 7-9 cents for SRW, HRW and HRS futures. Lowering world wheat prices are attracting demand. General Comments T...

Trouble All Around

Seeing a physical blend wall that creates a gap between the amounts of corn-based ethanol the industry can produce and can be absorbed in the gasoline mark...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

Beef Shortage

There are fewer cattle in most exporting countries and continued strong demand in importing countries, especially Asia. Beef Shortage Lower feed prices are...

Corn Market Overview

The influence of enlarged corn production in the U.S., Brazil, Ukraine and other producing countries has created a new bearish psychology for the corn mark...

Market Commentary

Even though Brazilian soybeans may be $0.80 or more cheaper than U.S. soybeans, the Chinese are going to be reluctant to switch unless they feel confident...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russia exported 681,827 MT of corn in December 2013. That is a record monthly volume for Russia at 15.7 percent more than November 2013 and triple the amou...

Potpourri of Misdeeds

India may have brought the world the numeric system, but it gives few favors these days when it comes to trade. Museum of Farming Britain is the perfect le...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Crops in Brazil and Paraguay are developing under very good conditions. The Brazilian soybean crop is estimated to be about 90 MMT or more, and the Paragua...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

USAID is providing funds in Ghana for the installation of easy-to-operate corn shelling equipment that can be used by all farmers there. This new equipment...

Inconsequential; Intelligence; Horse versus Donkey

The World Economic Forum (WEF) is underway in Davos, Switzerland, and several major corporate leaders reportedly aren't bothering to participate. Inconsequ...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

Oilseed Highlights

The Chinese government announced that it will discontinue stockpiling soybean and cotton this year as a way to support farmer income. Instead, it plans to...

Market Commentary

Hot, dry conditions over southern and western Argentina had been one of the key fundamental support pillars for the soy market, and the weekend rains kicke...

By Any Other Name

The concern has always been that the mere fact that food products are required to be labeled as containing GM ingredients would be taken by the public as e...

Deficit Reduction: Slow And Steady

Overall, the U.S. government is starting the new year on a trend toward deficit reduction. This is largely as the result of two trends.Looking back on CY 2...

GMOs; Diet; Development

The irony is that when non-GMO becomes commoditized, organic product companies like Amy's and Earth's Best that are pushing for GMO labeling will eventuall...

Farm Bill: Dairy Breakthrough?

Groups continue to work toward a solution as the pressure of a two-year delay in the farm bill is mounting on dairy interests as the last holdout. As we r...

U.S. Soybean Supplies Should Build in 2014/15

Some producers will choose to spend less on crop inputs when profits are projected to be slim or none. That is the case as we head in to the 2014 planting...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

As India's pulse production has increased, it now wants to lift the ban on exports in 2014. This will help raise the domestic prices to farmers who would o...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

Market Commentary

Soybeans and soymeal posted a mini-rally at the close that took March futures to the plus side and brought November futures to a 4-cent gain on the day. Ge...

Market Commentary

Overnight trading volume for grain and the soy complex continued the recent slowing trend, but daytime volume picked up after USDA's weekly export sales re...

Farm Bill and Biotech Trouble

The dairy provision in the new farm bill appears to be getting worked out, but now cotton is rearing its ugly head. New Farm Bill Trouble The dairy provisi...

Oilseed Highlights

U.S. new soybean export sales have to drop back substantially at some point soon, or there have to be significant cancellations of sales. Otherwise, the U...

Dietary Guidelines, Reality, and the Vegan Lobby

The U.S. Departments of Agriculture and Health and Human Services' nutrition guidelines are due for renewal in 2015. Meat and livestock groups will push to...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices.   Some other text...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

Position Limits and Excessive Speculation

The role played by excessive speculation is a curious one. It seems that it only occurs when prices are rising, never when they are falling.As Gary Blument...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russia has exported 16.384 MMT of grains since the beginning of MY 2013/14. That is a 25.3 percent increase compared to the 13.077 MMT exported during the...

Market Commentary

With the possible exception of old crop soybeans and soymeal, there is presently the absence of the kind of fundamental tensions that encourage trading and...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Argentina's announced export quota of 1.5 MMT on wheat has left wheat market participants very disappointed with this policy development. They had been exp...

TPA; Commodity Trading; Soak the Rich

The trade liberalization agenda had the most momentum in years as 2013 was coming to a close, but now 2014 looks to be full of hurdles. Trade Agenda at Ris...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

Oilseed Highlights

Global soybean demand is strong, but not strong enough to handle a 30 MMT increase in combined North and South American soybean production in the same cale...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

Kenya has set a target to double corn production in the next five years. The government also said that it will be promoting a change in the local diet to r...

Market Commentary

Better than expected retail sales results for December sent stock markets higher today following earlier January losses. China reportedly turned down more...

Congress Comes to Budget Terms

The plan released yesterday afternoon provides final FY 2014 discretionary funding levels for all 12 annual appropriations bills at a total of $1.012 trill...

Some Takeaways from USDA’s January Reports

Although most analysts pay little attention to grain sorghums, there were major changes to 2013 production that necessitated signifcant changes in the 2013...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

Energy, Horses, Bugs, Econ

The saga over horse slaughter in the U.S. is a repeating nightmare for both its proponents and opponents. This time around, horse slaughter opponents used...

Hawaii versus China on Ag

With over an acre of land per inhabitant, Hawaii imports 92 percent of its food. By contrast, the Chinese have about one-fifth of an acre of arable land pe...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

Assuming the Ukrainian feed grains surplus is 18 MMT this year, 10 MMT remain for the period of January-September, which is a record high for this point in...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

China In-Country Analysis

Realizing that limited arable land and scarce water resources could restrict agricultural production, China has vowed to boost the seed industry to ensure...

A Mixed Reaction

The market is having trouble accepting the fact that last Friday's USDA corn numbers might have signaled a change in the corn outlook.The market's reaction...

Market Commentary

Soybeans are supposed to be weakening as the demand leaves North America and crops in South America continue to look good. The problem is that the demand h...

Biofuels 2014: EPA Proposal Trumps Legislation

If not explicitly welcomed by Congress, EPA's proposal was met with quite a sigh of relief as it cleared a contentious issue from the must-do legislative l...

Market Commentary

Today's USDA corn numbers clearly caught the market by surprise with a decrease in production and a 1 December quarterly stocks number of more than 300 mil...

Labels and Taxes

Creating change through the use of labeling and taxes is not so simple.The International Association for the Study of Obesity suggests that the solution to...

Farm Bill Stuck on Dairy Language

Each of the House and Senate bills provides its own proposed program for dairy producers' margin insurance. As we reported in a brief update yesterday, th...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

A Friendly Surprise in USDA Numbers

The corn and soybean estimates were not nearly as bearish as predicted by most analysts, while wheat held its own surprise.USDA unloaded the biggest series...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Growing per capita incomes in India have led to changes in household food baskets and a tremendously increased demand for dairy products. The rapidly...

Market Commentary

The pervasive feeling is that the sum of tomorrow's USDA reports will be bearish with increased corn and soybean production as well as big quarterly corn s...

Farm Bill Update

The House and Senate farm bill conference did not meet today as had been expected. The issues were allegedly regarding food aid and dairy programs. The Ho...

The Global Influence

We have no doubt that the CME futures markets attract a greater diversity of commercial and speculative traders from around the world than any other agricu...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

Regs; TPA; Labeling

Food manufacturers are asking the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to develop a national rule on biotech food labeling. There are ample legal mechan...

Oilseed Highlights

Net new export sales of U.S. soybeans last week totaled only 155,000 MT. However, this year's total is 41.248 MMT, 2.7 percent above USDA's December foreca...

Trends and Demands Impact Livestock Production

Smithfield and its hog production subsidiary, Murphy-Brown, are asking their contract sow-growers to convert their facilities from gestation stalls to grou...

Market Commentary

Today's announcement that China had bought more U.S. soybeans had less influence on price than prudent action. General Comments It is stating the obvious t...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Mykola Kulbida, Director of the Ukrainian Meteorological Center, reported on 30 December that the continuous period of warm weather affecting Ukraine, espe...

Kettle Black; Cheap Food

Russia is charging the EU with improper antidumping procedures due to faulty dumping margin calculations, while the country itself was found to have impose...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Brazilian farmers have sold about 40 percent of their soybean production, well below the last campaign. There is still a large volume to trade, but there m...

Market Commentary

Grain and soy markets are treating Friday's 2014 version of USDA January reports as being very important to future price direction. General Comments USDA's...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

Oilseed Highlights

USDA announced today that U.S. exporters have sold an additional 350,000 MT of soybeans to China for shipment in 2013/14. This should send a signal to the...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

Ten new drought-tolerant varieties of corn are being released in Africa: four types in Uganda, three types in Kenya and another three slated soon in Tanzan...

Congressional Agenda

There are both mandatory and  several politically-motivated high priority items. Obviously, all of these issues have implications for the 2014 mid-ter...

NTMs; Disobedience; Peripheral

Most activists solely state the need to remove antibiotics from livestock production in order to solve antibiotic resistance. Addressing the human-based ca...

The Soybean Anomaly

You might say that today's sales report provides an exclamation point to the curious anomaly that has developed for the U.S. and world soybean outlook and...

Market Commentary

The weekly export inspections numbers were released and showed that 56.5 million bushels of soybeans were exported during last week's holiday-shortened wee...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

Farm Bill Conference Meetings Start

The devil is in the details, which are sparse at this moment. Indeed, there is not even confirmation right now that all the provisions in both the House an...

China In-Country Analysis

China's domestic protein market surged recently as a result of the tightening DDGS import policy. Some large domestic importers are now worried about the f...

Bearish USDA Report Expectations

The primary reason for these expectations is that nearly everyone expects that U.S. corn and soybean production estimates will be increased.USDA will relea...

Ethanol Backstory; Cold Benefits

Humans are fretting the deep cold temperatures savaging the U.S. this winter. However, it may be good for crops. White House Drives Ethanol Policy EPA has...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

A widely-referenced paper on the trials and effects of biotech food crops has been discredited by the journal that published it. There is now no serious sc...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

Market Commentary

This morning's weekly export sales report again showed bullish soybean sales with corn and wheat sales below expectations. General Comments Markets were mi...

Contradictions Abound

Farmers were sent checks from the government when corn was $7/bushel but now will not receive a direct payment when corn is down to $4/bushel. Contradictio...

Golden Age for Commodities Coming to End in 2014

We are coming out of long bull run for commodities despite a recession in 2008-09, or maybe, in part, because of that recession.We are coming out of long b...

U.S. Winter Wheat Acreage Estimates

We are currently projecting a reduction in U.S. winter wheat acres. However, we see big differences between hard red winter (HRW) and soft red winter (SRW)...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

Sugar Tax; TPA

The food police, as Jayson Lusk at Oklahoma State likes to call them, are hoping that Mexico's newly enacted tax on sugary soft drinks will successfully se...

Oilseed Highlights

Although China has thus far rejected a relatively small amount of U.S. DDGS because it contains an unapproved Syngenta biotech event, the rejections are ha...

Feed Outlook

Livestock feed price ratios forecast for December 2013 already show dramatic changes over the past two years in terms of livestock profitability.Feed Outlo...

Predictions for 2014

What we are unable to forecast are the inevitable surprises that always appear.As we begin each New Year, it has become our habit to peer into our proverbi...

Market Commentary

The market's price action since Christmas has turned technical charts for all three markets seriously negative. General Comments Please note that the weekl...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

Oilseed Highlights

Hope obviously abounds in the Indonesian government. Yesterday the Indonesian Ministry of Agriculture forecasted that country's soybean production in 2014...

Farm Price Index and Financial Outlook

The two factors driving farm financial health are farm income and borrowing costs. With farm real estate debt having increased substantially since 2008, th...

Slip Sliding Into 2014

The fundamental story line for 2013 is the rather dramatic transition from tight supplies and the need to limit demand at the beginning of the year to the...

Market Commentary

Perhaps more than anything else, 2013's final session demonstrated how interconnected various commodities can become. General Comments The last trading ses...

Agenda for 2014

Until the agriculture sector achieves greater public understanding of its objectives, challenges and accomplishments, antagonists will fill the vacuum with...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

Middle Eastern markets, especially Iran, were buyers of Indian soymeal in 2012/13, but it is expected that those exports to the region will drop in 2013/14...

Taxing the Rich

What is most surprising, perhaps, is that the top income earners have fared worse as an overall group than any other since the 2008-09 recession. While Co...

Market Commentary

There was rain in Cordoba, Argentina over the weekend that gave us a weak tone in the soy complex. There wasn't any news in the corn market, so the weaknes...

Thoughts on Yields

The question for today is: to what extent has the GM revolution in corn and soybeans resulted in yield increases?John Baize had an interesting piece last w...

Hogwash; Backfire; Chasers

Survey work commissioned by the U.S. Farmers & Ranchers Alliance found that the vast majority of consumers want more information and transparency appli...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

China Rejects Imports of GM DDGS

While the DDGS component of the Chinese feed market is still relatively small, it is an important one for U.S. DDGS as it accounts for 58 percent of all ex...

Another Week of Big Export Sales

Commodity Analytics shows the most recent data for grain export sales and shipments along with historic patterns. Current deviations from historic norms po...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

2014 Uncertainties

Uncertainty remains the key certainty going into 2014.Two seemingly conflicting forecasts for 2014 involve concurrent value accretion for the U.S. dollar a...

Market Commentary

The weekly U.S. export sales report was released this morning, and corn sales were more than double the anticipated number with soybean and wheat sales als...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Many analysts have discussed India's divided demographic and how it will pave the way for the country's economic growth. While there is a great deal of pot...

China Beef Trade Ten Years After BSE

China is currently short of domestic production in the face of growing demand and prices have more than tripled since the 2003 BSE ban. China Beef Trade Te...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Ukraine exported 17.6 MMT of grains as of 23 December and from the beginning of MY 2013/14. This is an increase of 27.7 percent compared to the same period...

Grading Our 2013 Predictions

What might make our predictions somewhat unique is that at the end of each year we go back and grade ourselves on how well or how poorly we did. Seldom hav...

Bad Timing; China Perspective

Because the political far left and far right are now conspiring against trade liberalization, it is speculated that TPA will not be considered in Congress...

A Look Ahead at the Next Decade for Soybeans

If global soybean demand continues to rise over the next decade at the same pace as it has since 2000/01, the world will need an additional 70-80 MMT of so...

Market Commentary

Today's markets were greeted with an improved weather outlook for both southern Brazil and Argentina. This has the effect of emphasizing that prospects for...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

Energy; Biotech; Currency

A survey of American attitudes toward biotech food by the global research company NPD Group sends a warning and a message of opportunity. Lame Duck Honesty...

Oilseed Highlights

It now appears Indian soy industry officials agree that India's 2013 soybean crop will not be anywhere near as large as the 12–13 MMT that some in India we...

Peering Into the Weather Crystal Ball

We must remember that the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) climate outlooks are based on an analysis of what appear to be the most likely long-term trends a...

Market Commentary

USDA provided some interest for the soybean market when it announced that a total of 185,000 MT of soybeans were sold to unknown with 120,000 MT of that fo...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

Unemployment Versus the Farm Bill

The farm bill may face some competition for floor time from a new move to extend emergency unemployment compensation (EUC) when Congress reconvenes in Janu...

Sound Science: What Is It?

The lack of definition makes for some potentially problematic and unintended consequences were the term to be codified.Supreme Court Justice Potter Stewart...

Canada Has A Lot

The obvious result of a magnificent production season will be that ending supplies of virtually every crop in Canada will rise, and the logistical problem...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

In its December review, Strategie Grains revised its wheat export estimate for the current campaign upward to 24 MMT versus 19.6 MMT exported last year. Mi...

China In-Country Analysis

In a recent economic planning meeting, the Chinese government proposed focusing the nation's economic growth in 2014 on safe, balanced and green developmen...

Science, Trades, Quotes

In asking organic shoppers for the scientific basis of their shopping decisions, it turns out their actions are largely based on intuition rather than the...

Market Commentary

USDA announced the sale of 120,000 MT of old crop soybeans to unknown for the current marketing year. This was a small surprise since the market has been w...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

Market Commentary

Wheat still struggles to find any consistent buying as the funds keep adding to their record short positions. General Comments Markets were lower in the ov...

Duping Consumers

Former USDA officials Dan Glickman and Kathleen Merrigan assert in a Los Angeles Times article that allowing organic foods to be labeled as GMO-free would...

More Things to Keep You Up at Night

A few representatives from Chinese companies have been roaming around the northern Plains and visiting country grain elevator (silo) companies. According t...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

GOI has agreed to provide a bailout package of $1.06 billion to the sugar industry that will be released as interest-free loans to the mills. The sugar mil...

Baucus to Beijing Shuffle: Impact on U.S. Politics

What is interesting is the potential domino effect this nomination would have politically if it leads (as it probably will) to Baucus leaving the Senate be...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

Pork Pushes TPP – With or Without Japan

The National Pork Producers Council and American Farm Bureau Federation, together with a number of other groups, said that they are likely to oppose the en...

Inflationary Soybeans

There has been something of a symbiotic relationship between commodities and inflation for a long time. The best current example of the use of soybeans as...

Market Commentary

The larger-than-expected weekly export sales for corn and wheat were still not large enough to light a fire under either market. General Comments Overnight...

Oilseed Highlights

Reports out of India indicate that the country's soymeal exporters are having difficulty lining up new sales because of high prices. Deliveries of soybeans...

Trade Agenda Risk; Oops; Indicators

President Obama has two near-term priorities. However, a proposed nomination and a tin-eared USTR now threaten those two goals. Trade Agenda Hits Skids Pre...

Bridges; Cheered; Cloned

As one lobbyist euphemized, getting TPA through Congress is going to require a few bridges to be built in various districts and states. Building Bridges Th...

Market Commentary

The Fed's announced tapering and its low interest rate commitment did nothing for grain and soy markets that for now are off in their own worlds. General C...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

ANEC authorities are now seeking a new way to determine the priority of vessels in the Paranagua port. They are trying to maintain liquidity in the Paranag...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Opening the meeting of the Russian-Ukrainian Interstate Commission on 17 December, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced the intention of Russia, Ukra...

Market Commentary

With recent news about the U.S. economy generally positive, it is widely expected that the Fed will soon cut back on its stimulus efforts through the month...

Oilseed Highlights

Brazil's soybean farmers have had to deal with two major problems this year: caterpillars that have inflicted substantial crop damage and a rainy December...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

Black Sea wheat supplies are diminishing and Middle East & North Africa (MENA) buyers are going to have to look to other sources until the next harvest...

Market Drivers

Many of the relatively new factors that can affect market cycles are the result of economic and market globalization and integration.Every freely traded ma...

The Rest of the Story on Oil Imports

The bottom line is that the refinery capacity in the Gulf is now less dependent on imported oil than ever before.As we reported yesterday, the talking poin...

Forum Shopping

There are plenty of policy wonks conveniently picking what serves their biased positions.Forum shopping is more typically associated with litigating existi...

China In-Country Analysis

China' leaders reportedly expressed strong interest in feed production investment in Bulgaria at a recent summit with their counterparts from Central and E...

A Different Marketing View

The standard solution of most marketing analysts to the prospect of lower prices is to tell their producer clients to sell this year's crop plus the antici...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

The EU allocated 780,000 MT of wheat export licenses last week, bringing the total to 12.5 MMT versus 8.5 MMT allocated at the same time last year. Milling...

Biofuels Oversight: What’s the Greenest Fuel and Feedstock?

With or without e-15, one of the brewing clashes is the one coming between corn and advanced ethanol. There are only so many gallons of transportation fuel...

Market Commentary

Weekly export inspections for wheat were in the expected range at 17.6 million bushels. The pace is now 41 percent ahead of last year. General Comments Cor...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

Market Commentary

Corn has become a follower of the weakness in the soy complex. The situation with the prohibited GM corn variety in China is still unresolved, and there ar...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

The demand for vegetable oils in India has increased over the years. Current additional factors affecting the growth in imports are the delay in the s...

U.S., EU Flip Positions

While Europe is now abandoning its dairy production quotas, congressional farm bill conferees are flirting with adopting the old EU policy of supply-limiti...

Oilseed Highlights

One must question why the government allows U.S. biodiesel blenders to capture the tax credit for exported biodiesel when the objective of the blender cred...

No Middle Ground

The markets (and most market analysts) are either all in or all out, and there has been no better evidence of this phenomenon than what has happened this y...

House Passes Budget and Farm Bill

Of interest to agriculture, offsets for the cost of providing conservation assistance to private farm and ranch lands are included in the budget package.Th...

Banks and Proprietary Trading

The Volcker Rule's prohibition on proprietary trading by banks will directly affect today's derivative markets. A number of major banks have already closed...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

Spending and Not Spending

The military's interest in biofuel is purportedly fueled by paranoia about dependence on foreign sources of oil, but those sources are mainly Canada and Me...

Market Commentary

Demand for U.S. corn appears threatened by the Chinese rejections of corn shipments containing the not yet approved MIR162 GM event. Traders fear the volum...

FDA Issues Feed Directive on Veterinary Antibiotics

The FDA has come out with a plan for limiting veterinary pharmaceuticals that have human uses. In the end, the rule is somewhat of a relief to the meat ind...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russia's November 2013 barley exports totaled 182,547 MT, 53 percent less than October 2013 and 46 percent less than November 2012. 71 percent of the...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

Quirky Stuff

The same policymaker who pleaded with Congress to pass the farm bill has dismissed the one piece of leverage available for compelling congressional action...

Market Commentary

One would expect trade to calm down the day following a major USDA report. That was certainly the case to an extreme with today's market. General Comments...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange presently estimates that the total corn area is about 3.3 million hectares, a decrease of 10 percent year-on-year. This acr...

GMOs and DDGS

China has rejected somewhere between 10-20 cargos of U.S. corn found to have an unapproved GMO event. The next logical question is: what will happen if Chi...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

According to a recent report on GMOs in South Africa, 86 percent of corn planted is GM as well as 90 percent of soybeans. These crops are said to have...

Oilseed Highlights

It now appears a situation may be developing that will lead to much lower soybean prices in the future as global soybean production in 2014 might be 24 MMT...

Market Commentary

Wheat traders seemed put off by the fact that USDA actually raised its estimate of U.S. ending stocks, although 10 million bushels one way or another does...

The December WASDE

It might be argued that today's WASDE was slightly bullish based on the fact that overall demand for grains and soybeans in both the U.S. and the world inc...

Tilt Eastward

The official policy is that Beijing wants to be 95 percent self-sufficient in food, but the reality is that its effort to equalize rural and urban incomes...

Market Commentary

Weekly export inspections were all higher than expected. The bears continue to say the markets are finished, but demand doesn't seem to want to go away. Ge...

Retail Economy: Prosperity versus Inflation

Much of the increase in food costs has been raw commodity price inflation that has generally started to reverse this year.Now is the time of the year when...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

December WASDE Should Be Slightly Bullish

By most accounts, the U.S. numbers should be slightly bullish and supportive to prices. The key ingredient will be how much, if any, USDA chooses to i...

Look Again

Canada is having to sue the U.S. in the WTO as American politicians impose a country of origin labeling scheme intended to suppress imports of Canadian liv...

China In-Country Analysis

China's tight wheat supply has resulted in a high domestic price that could lead millers and trading companies to start importing supplies as early as next...

Farm Bill Progress Being Made

There is still some uncertainty as to whether an extension will be needed to cover the period between now and January.Reportedly, the big four – the chairm...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

It now seems that the WTO deal in Bali will have to wait as the Indian negotiators have not acceded to the rules that govern food subsidies. Eight of the 1...

Ag Review: Agrifood Technilogical Optimism

Rethinking AGOA Reauthorization of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) needs to take into account the improved economic condition of some countri...

Bali Stockpiles, Tech, Popcockery

U.S. agriculture is better than a country cousin when comparing some of its statistics to health care. Ag Loses to TF The WTO deal possibly1 arrived at in...

Market Commentary

Old crop soybean futures and basis have had a hard time weakening even with all the talk of a very bearish long-term soybean supply situation caused by pre...

Canada Blows Away Crop Production Records

The question now becomes, what will they do with this crop?Stats Canada's crop production update released on Wednesday of this week simply blew the wheat m...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

Mexico Implements Plan to Rebuild Cattle Herd

The goal of the program is to boost sales of Mexican cattle, but imports of live cattle and genetics are not prohibited, although the genetics program may...

Food for Thought

The biggest and most emotional food issue we face comes from the advent of biogenetic modification of food crops. The fear is that GMO crops MIGHT pose som...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

Oilseed Highlights

Reports out of China indicate the Chinese government will impose a consumption tax equivalent to $154/MT on biodiesel in January in an effort to reduce imp...

Market Commentary

Deutsche Bank, Germany's largest bank and a major player in commodity markets, announced that it plans to exit almost all of its commodity trading activiti...

Misfit Toys and Vatican Economics

The WTO's leadership is reportedly still trying to salvage a deal in Bali and has floated alternative language on a peace clause for India's proposed food...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

A month ago, official sources forecasted Argentine wheat production at 8.8 MMT.  Just several weeks ago, an official estimated that wheat exports woul...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

As of 29 November and from the beginning of MY 2013/14, Ukraine exported 13.96 MMT of grains, an increase of 19.4 percent compared with the same period las...

Optimism, Compliance, Cars

If U.S. agriculture fails to achieve great inroads into the Japanese market via the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), it can thank American automakers. Capi...

Market Commentary

It is fair to say that Canadian producers have never before experienced the yield and production results they are seeing in 2013. Crop scouts expected that...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

Agricultural experts in Africa are saying that the first priority regarding grains should be the storage and transportation systems where as much as 30 per...

Snopes, EMIR, Bali

What is needed is a single website for food that operates like Urban Legends or Snopes and serves as the repository of what is peer-reviewed and replicated...

Finally, the Volcker Rule

Whether or not the Volcker Rule is needed is a debate that has passed as it will soon be in place. However, there will remain plenty of questions as to how...

U.S. Ag Trade – Steady As A Rock

Grain and feed values will obviously be down in 2014, while oilseed export values are projected upward based on higher prices and strong early year sales o...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

Oilseed Highlights

Argentina's government acted yesterday to assist the domestic biodiesel industry in offsetting losses in exports to Europe after the EU imposed punitive an...

Market Commentary

Today's hedge selling in soybean futures appeared to result from a reported pick up in U.S. country movement and also from Brazil as an indication of some...

U.S. Farm Financial Situation

The bottom line is that farm income has lifted up farm assets and equity. As expected, farm debt to equity and debt to assets are down.USDA's Economic Rese...

Market Commentary

Overnight strength gave way to some aggressive selling in the soybean market almost immediately after the day session opened. That took soybeans and corn l...

Land Values and Cash Rents Still Very High

Current crop budget worksheets for 2014 look to be break-even at best. While cash prices for the 2014 crops have been weakening, cash rental rates and land...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

Ag and Nutrition Policy

Food regulators are trying to keep pace with market changes in the context of public ignorance and political opposition. Argentina – Dead Ahead In an inter...

China In-Country Analysis

China's leaders recently announced the first significant relaxation of the country's one-child policy in nearly 30 years. There are, however, certain impli...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

The EU allocated 577,000 MT of wheat export licenses last week, bringing the total to 11.2 MMT versus 7.3 MMT a year ago at the same time. Milling Wheat Th...

Market Commentary

Weekly soybean sales totaled 1.4 MMT with 992,000 MT of the total to China. USDA also announced the sale of 110,000 MT of soybeans to China in MY 2014/15...

One More Sugar to Ethanol Sale - For Now

USDA took several actions this year to intervene in the market to prop up prices, and this is the first time in a decade that it has had to do so.Ethanol m...

Mercantilism, Protectionism, the Works

The government of Prime Minister Tony Abbott was sworn into office just over two months ago on a pledge of economic liberalism (and social conservatism) fo...

2014 Farm Budgets Not Looking So Good

Deciding what to plant the last several years has been easy, but it will be quite different in 2014 based on the current market outlook.I was at a farm man...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

As Iran's relations with the West thaw, India could also accelerate investment in that country for its own interest as it is doing with the Port of Chabaha...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

High input costs this season are causing Argentine farmers to suffer from smaller margins. The depressed ARS peso and logistical espenses are also having a...

Market Commentary

The wheat market ignored the overnight sale of French wheat to Egypt and rumors that India was preparing to offer another 500,000 MT to 1 MMT for sale from...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Ukraine exported 12.8 MMT of grains as of 22 November and from the beginning of MY 2013/14. This was an increase of 15.8 percent compared to the same perio...

Unthankful; Non-Allergenic

Agriculture is a much larger share of the Brazilian economy, but someone at USDA needs to start a campaign to stop the silliness that is helping countries...

Farm Bill Budget Options

The Congressional Budget Office (CB0) has prepared scoring on a number of policy options that would help budget conference negotiators produce a budget by...

Some Pre-Holiday, Post-Harvest Thoughts

Some forex analysts are becoming quite bullish on the U.S. dollar in 2014. A stronger U.S. dollar would impede the competitiveness of U.S. grain, soybeans...

Answer for India; Silly Grain

The rich countries ought to suggest to India that it use a novel feature called the market for solving its sense of food insecurity. Market Solution for Ba...

Market Commentary

The world's 2013 crop production so far seems to reflect a common denominator, which is that crops in most major producing countries turned out better than...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

Turkey is expected to release up to 1.2 MMT from the government's 3 MMT of reserve stock local wheat into the country's market. This will certainly reduce...

Oilseed Highlights

The EU today published the regulations imposing anti-dumping duties on biodiesel imports from Argentina and Indonesia. Both the Argentine and Indonesian go...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

China In-Country Analysis

China's retail milk price has been increasing significantly over the past few months due to the considerable raw milk shortage in the domestic market since...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

Budget and Debt Overview

As of 7 February, either the suspension will have to be extended or a new debt limit established. If not, the Treasury would have to resort to its extraord...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

The main reason for the high premium in Ukraine is that its corn has been accepted by all the major destinations as a reliable origin, and buyers are ready...

What Happened to Argentina's Soybeans?

Most have blamed currency exchange and inflation issues for the lack of active selling by Argentine farmers. However, there are some differences of opinion...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain and oilseed prices...

Market Commentary

The day-to-day trading pattern of these markets has been one day of strength in the soy complex with weakness in corn and wheat, followed by the opposite a...

World Logistics Getting Messy

The dominant news in the markets these days continues to be the overwhelmingly bearish attitudes surrounding every market except U.S. equities. Nearly all...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Corn and Soy Corn arrivals in Andhra have been increasing over the past two weeks, but the quality is mediocre. Current prices range from $181-190/MT at th...

Transatlantic Frustrations; Bali Bashing

Transatlantic Frustrations It is difficult to imagine a successful Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) given that the two sides find so m...

Closing Futures Prices

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New Developments Impact Farm Bill Conference

Two of the biggest items on the table for the current farm bill conference are nutrition spending under the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP...

Market Commentary

General Comments Soybeans set the trading pace overnight with strong gains, and those gains pushed prices even higher when today's session started trading...

Judicial Process and Implications

Nuclear Implications The decision by Senate Democrats to use the so-called "Nuclear Option" in order to increase their capacity for approving judicial cand...

Oilseed Highlights

U.S. Soybean Industry Takes Sustainability Message to European Buyers I have been in Istanbul, Turkey this week attending a European Buyers Conference orga...

Market Commentary

General Comments Grain and soy futures were firmer overnight, and volume was noticeably improved as traders anticipated that USDA's weekly export sales rep...

Cattle Herd Rebuilding Has Begun

Cattle Herd Rebuilding Has Begun Corn prices hit their lowest level in three years recently, providing relief to feeders. On top of that, pasture condition...

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Bull Markets, Bear Markets

We think it is fair to say that markets have poor memories, collectively speaking This is not surprising as traders are always looking ahead. They measure...

Closing Futures Prices

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Mercosur Regional Analysis

Argentina: Change of Key Ministers Argentine President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner refocused on her agenda after resting for more than a month due to he...

Market Commentary

General Comments Cliché though it may be, the word that best describes today's grain and soy futures market is quiet.  Trading ranges are small with o...

Partners, Unequivocal, Testing

Ukraine and EU Ukraine has reportedly been torn over a closer association with the EU and its moral dictates versus alignment with Russia, but it may have...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 13-19 November 2013 Harvesting Updates As of 19 November, grain and leguminous crops were harvested on 41.5 million hectares, 94.3 p...

Closing Futures Prices

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Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

  News Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST COMMENTS Australia reports that the largest ever single shipment of barley (77,000 MT) has been sent to Saudi...

AG Groups Tell Congress They Want Access to Africa

In the November edition of WPI's monthly publication, Ag Review, we covered the topic of Africa and agriculture. Specifically, we examined meat, milk and p...

Oilseed Highlights

Brazil Declares Emergency over Caterpillar Infestation in Soybeans Soybean farmers in the Brazilian states of Bahia and Mato Grosso are suffering big losse...

Soybean Outlook Contradiction

U.S. stock market indices are setting new record highs about every other day, but commodity markets have been generally headed in the opposite direction. I...

Brazil, India, U.S., NAFTA

Infrastructure Costs to Soybeans The Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) has published the third in a series of books on Latin American integration with...

Market Commentary

General Comments It was an outside down day for the soy complex, but the technically oversold corn and wheat markets finally found some support and managed...

Carcinogens; Taxes

Acrylamide and TTIP As transatlantic negotiators look for ways to make their regulatory differences more coherent, the regulation of acrylamides presents a...

Let the Bearish News Roll

It's been a pretty amazing month for the market bears. It's also been a pretty amazing month for the world's farmers, most of whom are nearly always some d...

Market Commentary

General Comments Corn and wheat spent the entire session trading lower, while soybeans and soymeal were higher. Corn continued to suffer a hangover from EP...

China In-Country Analysis

China Seeks Options to Increase Agricultural Output China finds it increasingly challenging for its agricultural sector to meet the food demand that is dri...

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USDA Invites More Sugar-to-Ethanol Offers

This past Friday afternoon, USDA announced the third invitation round of the Feedstock Flexibility Program (FFP) to convert federally-held sugar into ethan...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

Milling Wheat The Russian wheat offer at the market remains unchanged from last week, but there were no reported trades or close buying interests.Egypt's G...

Market Commentary

General Comments Soybeans were the story of the day as people tried to figure out why they went from trading down 5-6 cents when markets reopened at 8:30 a...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Indian Poultry Industry in Need of a New Vision The Indian poultry industry needs support from within (policy framework) as well as outside by way of new t...

Closing Futures Prices

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Low Ambition, Confusion, Fast/Slow

Low GHG Ambitions Negotiators from over 140 nations have begun the 19th session of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change in Warsaw, Poland where th...

More Things to Keep You Up at Night

Here are a few things to think about during this period of almost non-existent news surrounding the markets: This is from a press release from the state...

Closing Futures Prices

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New Jersey Election Over - Animal Welfare Politics Ongoing

New Jersey Election Over – Animal Welfare Politics Ongoing Republican Governor Chris Christie was re-elected in New Jersey to a second term this month. The...

Market Commentary

General Comments Recall how prices sold off going into the November WASDE, only to realize that bearish anticipation was perhaps exaggerated. A repeat may...

Oilseed Highlights

U.S. Top Market for Argentine Biodiesel Now that the EU has imposed anti-dumping duties on imports of Argentine biodiesel, exporters have shifted their foc...

Dubious Bali Text

The U.S., EU and others have had trouble with the G-33's proposal for flexibility in operating domestic food stockholding programs due to the likelihood th...

Transition at the CFTC

Big changes are underway at the CFTC. Its chairman, Gary Gensler, has made it known for quite some time that he intends to leave his post on 3 January 2014...

Market Commentary

General Comments Here are some snippets of information regarding exchange-traded futures and options volume during the first eight months of 2013 (January-...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 6-12 November 2013 Harvesting Updates As of 12 November, grain and leguminous crops were harvested on 41.2 million hectares, 93.6 pe...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Local Prices above Payment Capacity Argentine farmers are presently observing a condition in their local grain prices that has not existed during the past...

A Panoply of Policy Notions

Rainforests versus People The Rainforest Action Network (RAN) and other environmental NGOs are concerned that the U.S. FDA's announced prohibition against...

Closing Futures Prices

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More Post-Report Thoughts

The government shutdown in October turned the November WASDE into something quite unique. The forced cancelation of the October WASDE meant there was a two...

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Overweight Beneficiaries; Overpriced Sugar

Food Stamp Behavior Change Republicans seeking to cut food stamp spending via the farm bill largely worry about disincentives to work and personal responsi...

Market Commentary

General Comments USDA reported that as of last Sunday, 84 percent of the U.S. corn harvest was finished and 91 percent of the soybean harvest was complete...

U.S. and Brazil Taking New Roles in Global Oil Markets

Yesterday we laid out the trends in U.S. fuel consumption as well as the growth in domestic crude oil production. At the same time that report was being dr...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

  News Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST COMMENTS Following comments made in Saudi Arabia over the past few weeks, the organization responsible for Sa...

Oilseed Highlights

Big Export Inspections Last Week Today's USDA export inspection report indicated that it inspected 2.238 MMT of soybeans destined for export last week. Of...

Market Commentary

General Comments Today was a government holiday (Veterans Day) in the United States. Banks were also closed, but the markets all traded full sessions. The...

CETA Lessons for TTIP

Canada has just completed a Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) with Europe, which beckons how it can inform negotiators meeting this week in...

What the Blend Wall Really Means

The leaks of the most recently proposed ethanol volumes for 2014 underscore an issue that has been going on since 2007 – miles driven by American motorists...

Additional Thoughts on the USDA Numbers

Now that the USDA November series of reports are behind us, it's interesting to see the secondary market comments and ideas that were talked and written ab...

China In-Country Analysis

Chinese Government Discusses Grain Planting Income Insurance for Next Year's Crops The Chinese government is continuing discussions regarding the replaceme...

Closing Futures Prices

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Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

Milling Wheat The Black Sea market feels a little heavy as there are not many buyers willing to pay current prices. The market went up too high and too qui...

Report from Halftime of the Fiscal Fight

The major crisis of the year so far was the October government shutdown. After three weeks, a deal was cut to reopen the government and set new dates for b...

Market Commentary

General Comments Today's markets were dominated by the November series of USDA reports that included yield and production updates and supply and demand rev...

Arctic Help; Trade Negotiations

Row Crops Should Help Apples USDA-APHIS has given the green light to Okanagan's "Arctic Apple," a fruit that has been genetically modified not to turn brow...

USDA Report Finally Hits the Street

It seems like it has been an eternity since the USDA last issued a production and supply and demand estimate. The fact is that it has been an eternity. The...

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Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Indian Oil Meal Exports Surge in October Oil meal exports for April-October 2013 are reported at 2.019 MMT, which is up from the 1.749 MMT exported during...

Restricting the Evil Speculator

Eliminating pure speculation on oil futures is a question of fairness.  The choice is between a world of hedge fund traders who make enormous amounts...

Oilseed Highlights

FDA Moves to Ban Use of Trans Fats in Foods The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) today proposed removing partially hydrogenated vegetable oils from...

Closing Futures Prices

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Eggs Are What the Hen Eats

Eggs Are What the Hen Eats While Distiller's Dried Grains with Solubles (DDGS) are most suited to ruminants, rather than mongastric livestock, because of t...

Market Commentary

General Comments Today's grain and soy futures markets turned more active than might have been expected on the day prior to USDA's very important November...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Wheat Market The chart below displays the Argentine milling rate per month for the prior three years. Argentine millers crushed 6.4 MMT during 2011, 6 MMT...

Closing Futures Prices

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Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 30 October-5 November 2013 Planting Updates As of 31 October, Russian farmers planted winter grain crops for the 2014 harvest on 14...

Market Commentary

General Comments Grain and soy futures continued the same slow, grinding pattern of trade that has been around all week as traders brace for Friday's WASDE...

Minimum Wage; Magic Soap; NTMs

Agrifood and Minimum Wage The agrifood industry is paying attention to the fact that Senate Democrats will seek to pass a 39 percent increase in the mandat...

Closing Futures Prices

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Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

  News Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST COMMENTS Wadi Holdings and Medsofts have opened a joint venture Nile River grain port facility in Egypt, whic...

Oilseed Highlights

Record Oilseed Production in Ukraine It appears that Ukraine's oilseed production will rise by 21 percent to a new record of about 14.45 MMT. At least that...

Biofuel; TPP

Biofuel Impact The European Commission's Joint Research Centre has reportedly concluded that vegetable oil prices would trend downward by 50 percent withou...

Washington GMO Labeling Ballot Initiative

Today is Election Day in a number of states. Virginia and New Jersey will select a governor and legislators, while of more interest to agriculture, the sta...

Market Commentary

General Comments The CFTC has argued that the Dodd-Frank legislation mandated that it establish speculative position limits for all exchange-traded commodi...

Pre-WASDE Guesswork

The situation surrounding USDA's November WASDE, to be released at noon EST Friday, 8 November, is unique. The recent government shutdown forced USDA to ca...

Ag Review: Focus on Africa

Rethinking AGOA Reauthorization of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) needs to take into account the improved economic condition of some countri...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

Milling Wheat The Black Sea market was quiet last week. The strength of the U.S. dollar has brought more sellers into the market, but the buyers are still...

Closing Futures Prices

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Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

Milling Wheat The Black Sea market was quiet last week. The strength of the U.S. dollar has brought more sellers into the market, but the buyers are still...

China In-Country Analysis

China's Soymeal Price Sees Upward Pressure Moving Forward China's cash soymeal price fluctuated lower the week of 28 October because of the ample bean supp...

Broccoli’s Butt Kicked

The first major attack on Big Ag by New York Times reporter Michael Moss was in his book, "Salt Sugar Fat: How the Food Giants Hooked Us" (see Ag Perspecti...

Market Commentary

Commentary Speculative selling of corn contracts has recently been emboldened by a composite of analysts and commentators repetitively noting that USDA is...

Battle Lines Being Drawn in Farm Bill Conference

The House of Representatives is in recess this week, meaning that the farm bill conference proper will likely not convene. However, staff work that proceed...

Some Random Market Thoughts

I am in Western Australia (WA) this week, almost exactly half-way around the world from home. That also means an inordinate amount of time on airplanes. Th...

Briefs: Farm Bill Conference and RFS

Farm Bill While there has been a great deal of speculation about how a farm bill might fit into a grand budget compromise that is coming before mid-Decembe...

Market Commentary

General Comments Markets started the month of November with lower trade in corn, soybeans and wheat futures markets. It was another day of a battle between...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

India Wheat Export Value Reduced – Local Prices Higher As the sowing season for wheat neared, GOI increased the Minimum Support Price of wheat to 14000 rup...

Closing Futures Prices

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Everything is Sweet

How Sweet it Isn't One the same day the news media is highlighting NPD Group data showing that Americans are eating more healthy foods, Gallup is reporting...

Closing Futures Prices

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Farm Bill; Ethanol

Farm Bill Changes The House-Senate Farm Bill conference kicked off this week and among all the various thorny issues are two non-problems. The first is whe...

Oilseed Highlights

Large U.S. Soy Export Sales Once Again As expected, today's USDA export sales report showed large U.S. export sales of soybeans and soymeal. Net soybean ex...

Perspectives on Chinese Demand

USDA released its long awaited export sales data dump that consisted of three weeks' worth of export sales compressed into a single report. Today's report...

Market Commentary

General Comments "Buy the rumor, sell the fact." That old market cliché was clearly in play today. The combined three-week export sales report showed that...

Farm Bill Conference – GIPSA, Battery Cages and COOL

Farm Bill Conference – GIPSA, Battery Cages and COOL The 2013 Farm Bill conference committee convened yesterday for opening statements, and two key livesto...

Several Policy Shorts

Wetlands Deserve Input U.S. EPA announced that it would seek new formal rulemaking on the delineation of regulated wetlands under the Clean Water Act. Envi...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 23-29 October 2013 Harvesting Updates As of 24 October, grain and leguminous crops were harvested on 40.2 million hectares, 91.3 per...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Wheat Brazilian millers are in a tight situation because they normally buy about 7 MMT per year of wheat, which primarily comes from Argentina, Uruguay and...

Market Commentary

General Comments Overnight trade in grains and soy took a cue from yesterday's late price recovery and started out higher. The mini-rally faded some during...

Closing Futures Prices

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October’s Do Nothing Markets

We are on the downhill slope of an unprecedented corn harvest. When the final tally is done, the U.S. corn crop of 2013/14 will be record large, exceeding...

Notable Updates

Updating Japan Rice The Nikkei reported today that Japanese Prime Minster Shinzō Abe's government plans to change the country's rice price support mechanis...

Farm Bill Mail Bag

Who says the art of letter writing has been lost? As of WPI's count, the House and Senate farm bill conferees have received nearly 20 letters in the month...

Oilseed Highlights

Near Record Week for U.S. Soybean Export Inspections Yesterday's USDA export inspections report indicated that 2.308 MMT of soybeans were inspected last we...

Market Commentary

General Comments It seems a bit excessive to describe today's market action as Turnaround Tuesday, but at least markets did not follow yesterday's fund and...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

  News Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST COMMENTS Egypt has decided to further reduce the nighttime curfew period to 0100-0500, except on Fridays when...

Closing Futures Prices

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Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

Milling Wheat The Black Sea market was very firm last week. However, we see more liquidity since last Friday as more sellers have started offering the Nove...

U.S. Logistics Finally Tested

Today's weekly export grain inspection numbers were the biggest they've been in a very long time at over 127 million bushels (more than 3.5 MMT). It was th...

Market Commentary

General Comments This was not a pretty day in the agricultural commodity markets. Corn, wheat and soybean prices were slightly lower overnight, but those l...

Closing Futures Prices

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China In-Country Analysis

China Takes Measures to Minimize Environmental Impact of Livestock Farming China's State Council, the government's cabinet, recently passed regulations on...

Misdirected Policies

Cotton versus Textiles The so-called "Cotton Four" (C-4) African countries pushing for an end to subsidies on cotton in rich countries have apparently modi...

Congress Challenges Administration Coal Plan

Senators Ed Whitfield (R-Kentucky) and Joe Manchin (D-West Virginia) are planning to unveil legislation today that would put a roadblock in front of the Ob...

Market Commentary

General Comments It was (again) a very quiet overnight trading session with small gains in wheat and small losses in corn and soybean futures. The day sess...

U.S. Export Sales Continue to Soar

U.S. corn exports deviation from historic patterns has implications for what exports will be in the rest of the marketing year. Analysis of unshipped corn...

Japan Succeeding in Generating Inflation

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's government has been battling deflation and appears to be making some headway, based on its latest release of statistic...

Oilseed Highlights

Huge U.S. Soymeal Export Sales Last Week The USDA weekly export sales report that was released yesterday was notable for the huge weekly amount of soymeal...

Opportunity; Bias; Easy Money

Meat Opportunity At least one major company has announced that as a result of Washington's harsh approach to country of origin labeling (COOL), it no longe...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Changing Eating Habits – New Entrants in Business Although the share of GDP from basic agriculture is falling, that of animal production within agriculture...

Closing Futures Prices

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China’s Price Support Challenge

Some economists have theorized that there is a common thread in terms of national agricultural policies among countries as their economies transition throu...

Pork the Red Meat

Catching Up With the extended federal government shutdown, livestock marketing statistics are catching back up and the markets that rely on them for transp...

Market Commentary

General Comments Today's USDA's weekly shutdown-delayed export sales report covered the week that ended 3 October. Traders and analysts were looking forwar...

Closing Futures Prices

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Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 16-22 October 2013 Harvesting Updates As of 21 October, grain and leguminous crops were harvested on 39.7 million hectares, 90.2 per...

Market Commentary

General Comments Starting with overnight trade, it was a rally day for grain and soybean futures with prices reaching impressive gains at their peak. CME w...

Closing Futures Prices

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Pranks

Throwing Mud Animal agriculture groups are defending their constituency against a report by John Hopkins Center for a Liveable Future that claims public po...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Wheat Egyptian tenders have historically been a good way to measure the competitiveness of wheat from different global origins. Assuming that condition con...

Crop Insurance under Scrutiny

Coming into the 2012 Farm Bill, there was one sure consensus among producers and the lawmakers who crafted the bill – crop insurance was to be its cornerst...

Catching Up on Exports Sales

From late June-August of 1972, officials of Exportkhleb, the Soviet Union's government grain trading agency, traveled to New York and Washington, DC where...

Oilseed Highlights

Huge Soybean Export Inspections Last Week The U.S. soybean harvest may have been a bit later than normal this year, but U.S. exports are clearly catching u...

Closing Futures Prices

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Market Commentary

General Comments The U.S. Labor Department announced that the U.S. added fewer jobs during September than analysts expected – 148,000 versus 193,000 in Aug...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

  News Updates With the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region closed for the Eid holidays last week, new developments in the grain business have...

Data and Technology

Data Users' Angst This year's USDA Data Users meeting was dominated by the impacts of the government shutdown. Private industry analysts were anxious to le...

Brinksmanship in the Corn Market

Brinksmanship occurs when an event is pushed to the verge of potentially devastating losses in hopes of achieving an advantageous outcome. Washington recen...

FY 2014 Budget Talks Underway

Now that the government has reopened, Congressional Budget Committee Chairmen Senator Patty Murray (D-Washington) and Representative Paul Ryan (R-Wisconsin...

Market Commentary

General Comments Markets were steady to higher overnight, led by soybean futures. That trend continued in this morning's session, but wheat lost its gains...

Closing Futures Prices

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Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

Milling Wheat The Black Sea market has made a spectacular rally during the last week, because of the lack of farmer selling and overbooked port capacity fo...

Things to Keep You Up at Night

We tend to always focus on the major crops of wheat, corn and soybeans. Most analysts do that because those are the crops that have futures markets. They d...

China In-Country Analysis

2013 Grains and Oilseeds Production Estimates China National Grain & Oil Information Center (CNGOIC) released its estimate of the country's 2013 grains...

Closing Futures Prices

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Market Commentary

General Comments It was a catch-up day for USDA today. It did announce some soybean export sales this morning of 220,000 MT to China and 140,000 MT to unkn...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Increased Minimum Support Price for Grains Next Season While the Ministry of Agriculture has recommended an increase in the Minimum Support Price (MSP) of...

Soybean Crop Getting Bigger, But Farmers Still Not Selling

The domestic and export soybean basis remain strong and, in fact, have been strengthening throughout this harvest. There are several reasons: The old cro...

CETA, TPP, ILUC

CETA Implications Canada and the EU completed a trade agreement, the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA), with both impacts on their bilatera...

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