Recent Livestock Analysis
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.605/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.3025/bushel, down $0.1025 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.6875/bushel, down $0.1075 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $310.9/short ton, down...
Market Commentary: Larger Global Supply Fears Send CBOT Lower Ahead of WASDE
What You Need to Know Today: The latest EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook forecast 2027 U.S. WTI crude oil at $65.39/brl, up about $5 from the prior forecast. President Trump late Monday claimed the U.S. has swept the entire Strait of Hormuz (SOH) for sea mines. Iran’s security council said...
Understanding Protein Content in Soymeal
Key Takeaways: Soymeal with 44 percent protein generally contains more soybean hulls and fiber, while 48 percent soymeal is more extensively dehulled, resulting in higher protein concentration and lower fiber. CBOT soymeal futures were lowered from a 48 percent to 47.5 percent protein specific...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins deteriorated sharply to -$167/head last week, down $89 from the prior week as fed cattle prices rebounded while the Choice cutout continued to weaken. The cutout slipped to $363/cwt, while fed cattle prices climbed to $235/cwt, reversing much of the recent improvement in pac...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Favorable U.S. weather overrode the Black Sea export impacts in last week’s trade and left more bearish sentiments to dominate the CBOT. Managed money traders sold 65,000 contracts across the ag markets, reducing their all-ags net long 11 percent in the process. The biggest drivers of the...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.6175/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.405/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.795/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $311.6/short ton, down $1.8...
Market Commentary: WASDE, Black Sea, and Iran Offer Offsetting Effects on Grain Futures
What You Need to Know Today: Tensions in the Middle East escalated over the weekend with Iran demanding the U.S. make multiple concessions that are likely non-starters before traffic can flow through the Strait of Hormuz again. Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Turkey signed a mutual defense agreeme...
Senate Farm Bill: What’s Next?
Senator John Boozman (R-Arkansas) has urged farmers to apply pressure on the failed farm bill during the August recess. His intent is to hold another vote on the legislation as soon as possible upon the Senate’s return from a five-week break on 14 September. From a parliamentary perspecti...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.62/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.3975/bushel, up $0.085 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.7625/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $313.4/short ton, down $3.2 from y...
Market Commentary: Attention Turns to August WASDE Yield Estimates
What You Need to Know Today: Traders are increasingly focused on next Wednesday’s August WASDE report, with corn and soybean yield estimates expected to drive the next major move in grain markets. Recent crop condition declines and late-July heat have increased uncertainty around USDA&rs...
Market Commentary: Grain Markets Awaiting New Catalysts
What You Need to Know Today: Iran has developed an initial draft plan that would prohibit U.S. and Israeli ships from transiting the Strait of Hormuz, increasing concerns over potential disruptions to global energy trade. Although no restrictions have been enacted, the proposal adds anot...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.62/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.3125/bushel, down $0.11 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.7775/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $316.6/short ton, up $1 from yest...
EU Marks Paradigm Shift with Cattle
For years, the EU treated its cows, pigs, and broilers mainly as a source of emissions to be reduced. This week the European Commission gave them a new job title: "critical infrastructure." According to the EU’s official livestock strategy presented in Strasbourg, France, livestock underp...
Wool Economics: A Missing U.S. Value Chain
Wool is one of the most misunderstood U.S. agricultural commodities. Fine wool in the 17–21 micron range commands premium prices in luxury apparel, technical outdoor gear, and high-end knitwear, while coarser wool is gaining support as building codes and standards shift toward natural-fib...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.6/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.4225/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.7475/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $315.6/short ton, down $2.8 f...
Market Commentary: Caution Beneath the Headlines
There are plenty of major headlines moving across the markets today, but the reaction beneath them remains cautious. Crude oil is holding steady despite reports of progress involving the Strait of Hormuz, corn and soybeans remain tied to changing weather forecasts, and wheat continues to weigh...
Market Commentary: Improved Weather Outlook, Possible Iran Deal Send Grains, Oil Lower
What You Need to Know Today: U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent said the U.S. and Iran could “today or tomorrow” reach a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Despite the Secretary’s claims, an attack on a vessel off the Omani coast suggests plenty of risk remains in forming a lo...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins slipped modestly for the first time in four weeks, declining $15/head to -$78 as fed cattle prices firmed while boxed beef values continued to weaken. The Choice cutout eased another $2.63/cwt to $364.69, while dressed cattle prices fell only $2.76/cwt to $362.25/cwt, limiti...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.655/bushel, down $0.07 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.385/bushel, down $0.125 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.7775/bushel, down $0.145 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $318.4/short ton, down $3.2...
Offal Meat: Challenges and Opportunities in a Global Market
Key Takeaways: Offal represents an important segment of global meat trade by adding value to underutilized portions of livestock carcasses and improving overall resource efficiency. Strong export demand for products such as pork variety meats and chicken feet allows processors to maximize carc...
Market Commentary: Black Sea Export Halts, U.S. Weather Risks Send CBOT Higher
What You Need to Know Today: President Trump suspended the planned attacks on Iran and announced that the pieces for a framework for peace were in place in a weekend social media post. Iran, however, later said no efforts were underway to conduct negotiations with the U.S., though Oman indicat...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The escalating impacts of Russia and Ukraine’s recent attacks and counter attacks in the Black Sea continues to drive bullish CBOT sentiments. Managed money traders purchased 122,000 contracts across the ag markets, expanding their all-ags net long 27 percent in the process. The biggest d...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.725/bushel, up $0.085 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.51/bushel, up $0.1175 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.9225/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $321.6/short ton, up $0.4 from...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.64/bushel, down $0.045 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.3925/bushel, down $0.2425 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.875/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $321.2/short ton, down $1...
Market Commentary: Record Soyoil Demand Contrasts With Grain Market Weakness
What You Need to Know Today: Record biofuel demand continues to support soyoil values, as EIA data show that May soyoil usage as a biofuel feedstock reached a record 1.434 billion pounds. The latest data reinforces the strength of renewable fuel demand and helps explain ongoing investment in a...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.685/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.635/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.8875/bushel, down $0.04 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $322.8/short ton, down $0.7...
Market Commentary: Cattle Outperform Hogs on Quiet Day for Corn and Soy
What You Need to Know Today: The U.S. and Iran resumed missile strikes after a brief pause in fighting, raising concerns that the five-month conflict could expand across the Middle East. Jordan intercepted Iranian missiles, Kuwait reported a fatal strike, and drone attacks damaged two natural...
Livestock Roundup: Senate Farm Bill Threats to Meat Industry
The Senate Agriculture Committee will take up the farm bill next week, and a number of amendments targeting the meat industry are expected to be offered. Two of the most potentially damaging are the Schumer amendment, based on his bill, the Family Grocery and Farmer Relief Act, and mandatory co...
The Consumer Reset: How GLP-1, Protein, and Value Are Reshaping Foodservice
The industry has spent two years bracing for GLP-1 medications to hollow out demand, but the data so far tells a more interesting story. Roughly one in eight adults currently uses a GLP-1, and an additional 29 percent of non-users say they would consider it if it became more accessible and cost...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.7175/bushel, down $0.0875 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.6075/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.9275/bushel, down $0.2725 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $323.5/short ton, dow...
Market Commentary: War Moves Oil. Weather Moves Grain.
If Wednesday’s trade proved anything, it is that not every market is listening to the same headline. Renewed fighting between the U.S. and Iran sent crude oil sharply higher after Iran fired ballistic missiles at an American airbase in Jordan. President Trump promised a U.S. response, pus...
Small Ruminants: A Global Protein System the U.S. Market Has Yet to Price In
Executive Summary Sheep and goats represent one of the largest livestock protein systems in the world, with an estimated 2.3 billion head globally; however, they remain almost entirely absent from U.S. agricultural policy, trade strategy, and market forecasting. The U.S. small ruminant herd, at...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.805/bushel, up $0.065 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.625/bushel, up $0.025 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.2/bushel, up $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $327.8/short ton, up $3.7 from yes...
Market Commentary: Grains Rally as Crop Ratings Fall; Global Shipping Becomes More Perilous
What You Need to Know Today: Shipping in the Black Sea is at a standstill, with neither Ukraine nor Russia yet ready to swerve in this game of maritime and export brinkmanship. Israeli media suggests the U.S. and Iran may be close to making a deal or at least restoring the memorandum of unders...
Brazil’s Emergence as a Major Pork Exporter
Key Takeaways: Brazil’s pork exports have more than doubled since 2019 as competitive feed costs, ASF-free status, and expanding global demand have strengthened the country’s position in international markets. Brazil’s abundant domestic production of corn and soybeans provide...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins continued to recover for a third consecutive week, improving $67/head to -$63/head as fed cattle prices fell about $30 in the past 5 weeks. The Choice cutout slipped another $5/cwt to $367/cwt, but fed cattle prices fell an even steeper $12/cwt to $365/cwt (dressed), allowin...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.74/bushel, down $0.135 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.6/bushel, down $0.18 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.1375/bushel, down $0.3975 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $324.1/short ton, down $11.1...
Market Commentary: Commodity Sell-Off on Middle East De-escalation and Border Reopening
What You Need to Know Today: It was just one of those days where seemingly everything was in the red as part of a broader risk-off economic sentiment amid de-escalation headlines in the Middle East. Other key fundamentals were also bearish, including the resumption of Mexican cattle imports an...
Cow-Calf Profit Outlook Riskier on Drought, Cost Pressures
Key Takeaways: U.S. cow-calf producers are facing another year of record-breaking revenues and net returns for 2026, though rising cost pressures and pullbacks in cattle prices increase risks. Drought remains a key concern for much of the cow-calf industry this year, with rising feed cos...
New World Screwworm: Phased Re-Opening of Mexican Border
USDA announced on Friday the coordinated, phased reopening of southern U.S.-Mexico livestock ports starting 24 August 2026, after more than a year of closures due to the spread of New World screwworm (NWS). Douglas, Arizona, will be the first port of entry to resume cattle trade on 24 August. T...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.875/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.78/bushel, down $0.1825 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.535/bushel, up $0.0975 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $335.2/short ton, up $3.3 from yes...
U.S. Cattle on Feed - July 1 2026
U.S. Cattle on Feed on July 1 totaled 11.4 million head, 2 percent above July 1, 2025. Placements in feedlots during June totaled 1.40 million head, 3 percent below 2025. Marketings of fed cattle during June totaled 1.66 million head, 3 percent below 2025. Other disappearance totaled 50,0...
Market Commentary: Black Sea Headlines Shake Wheat Markets
What You Need to Know Today: The Trump administration announced new tariffs of 10 percent to 12.5 percent on imports from 60 major U.S. trading partners as part of a Section 301 action aimed at combating forced labor in global supply chains. Countries that have agreed to adopt and enforce bans...
Cattle on Feed and Cattle Inventory Reports
USDA’s monthly cattle on feed report was released today, along with the semi-annual cattle inventory report. The total number of cattle on feed in feedlots with a capacity of 1,000 head or more amounted to 11.4 million head, or 102 percent of last year. All cattle and calves totaled 94.2...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.875/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.9625/bushel, down $0.095 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.4375/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $331.9/short ton, down $1 f...
Market Commentary: Oil Surge, Weather Risks and Export Demand Drive Grain Market Strength
What You Need to Know Today: Oil prices surged today following reports of tanker attacks off the coast of Saudi Arabia by Houthi rebels and renewed U.S. threats to escalate military strikes against Iran, heightening concerns over potential disruptions to Middle East energy supplies. Brent crud...
Shifts in Global Hunger
Key Takeaways: The latest UN data shows solid progress reducing global hunger and food insecurity. The geography of hunger-affected people has shifted substantially, however, and Africa is now the most affected region. To understand why hunger patterns have shifted and what policy option...
Livestock Roundup: Cattle on Feed and Semi-Annual Inventory Report Preview
USDA’s monthly cattle on feed report for 1 July will be released tomorrow. Analysts’ pre-report consensus estimates are for the total inventory on feed to be 102.2 percent of last year. Those estimates imply an on-feed inventory of 11.327 million head. If accurate, that would be the...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.8475/bushel, up $0.095 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $7.0575/bushel, up $0.2775 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.39/bushel, up $0.1625 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $332.9/short ton, up $5.6 from...
Market Commentary: Wild Wednesday: Weather, War and Worry
Grains posted strong gains today, putting the bulls firmly in the driver’s seat. There was no shortage of fuel for the move, with three W’s driving the rally: weather, war and worry. Weather: Cooler temperatures are temporarily easing stress across the Northern Plains and Midwest, b...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.7525/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.78/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.2275/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $327.3/short ton, up $3.5 from...
Market Commentary: Grains Rally on Momentum, Weather; Soybeans Sag on Quiet Exports
What You Need to Know Today: Grain futures fell hard overnight after the USDA’s Crop Conditions report showed better-than-expected ratings for corn and soybeans, despite difficult weather last week. The Conditions report was even more bearish in light of meaningfully beneficial rains acr...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins improved to -$130/head last week, up $44 from the prior week as sharply lower fed cattle prices more than offset continued seasonal weakness in the Choice cutout. The cutout declined to $373/cwt while fed cattle prices fell to $238/cwt, allowing packer spreads to recover for...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.73/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.74/bushel, down $0.0875 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.2625/bushel, up $0.2325 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $323.8/short ton, up $5.3 from...
Market Commentary: Soybeans Pop on China Buying; Weather Fuels Corn Rally; Cattle Score Reversal
What You Need to Know Today: The conflict between the U.S. and Iran continues to escalate with the two sides exchanging attacks over the weekend. President Trump said Iran “will pay” for recent attacks that claimed the lives of U.S. troops stationed in Jordan. There are some signs...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The weather rally in conjunction with the resumption of the war in Iran and the export-tightening impacts of Russia and Ukraine’s recent attacks and counter attacks continues to drive bullish CBOT sentiments. Managed money traders purchased 93,000 contracts across the ag markets, expandin...
Trade Overview: USMCA, Brazil Section 301 Investigation, Section 122 Tariffs
USMCA Re-Negotiations At the Iowa Farm Bureau Economic Summit on Friday, former USTR Robert Lighthizer stated that the USMCA renegotiations should focus on the trade deficit with Mexico rather than the trade pact itself. The U.S. deficit with Mexico exceeds $170 billion, including a net deficit...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.675/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.8275/bushel, up $0.08 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.03/bushel, up $0.08 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $318.5/short ton, down $3.9 from ye...
Market Commentary: Geopolitical Tensions Driving Markets
What You Need to Know Today: The U.S. and Iran exchanged strikes, with the U.S. hitting Iranian bridges, energy sites, and military infrastructure. Iran launched a missile into Kuwait that damaged a desalination plant. Crude oil futures surged on heightened Middle East tensions, providing supp...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.64/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.7475/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.95/bushel, down $0.0675 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $322.4/short ton, up $2.4...
Market Commentary: Cattle Markets Remain Under Pressure, China Buys More Soybeans
What You Need to Know Today: Iran warned that it will retaliate against the U.S. if American strikes target Iranian infrastructure, as President Trump has threatened to do next week if negotiations between the two nations do not resume. President Trump is scheduled to deliver a primetime addre...
Livestock Round Up: Turkey Production Poised to Rebound Some
Turkeys for Thanksgiving are typically placed this month. Turkey production has suffered from HPAI and other diseases for the past two years, and placements are still down overall. However, at more than 34 pounds per bird, overall production is being supported by heavier weights and increased p...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.695/bushel, up $0.09 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.775/bushel, up $0.325 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.0175/bushel, up $0.1075 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $320/short ton, up $3.7 from yes...
Market Commentary: The Bulls Are Back in Town?
After spending much of the year searching for a reason to stay, the bulls suddenly have several. Grain markets have strengthened, wheat is leading the charge, outside markets are becoming more supportive, and geopolitical and weather risks are once again demanding attention. Does that mean the...
Market Commentary: Corn, Soybeans Fall on Conditions Data; Wheat Reverses the Reversal
What You Need to Know Today: Attacks between the U.S. and Iran intensified overnight and the U.S. Central Command reported that the U.S. naval blockade against Iran will begin at 3:00 PM CDT Tuesday. President Trump said the Strait of Hormuz is open to all shipping traffic, except Iran. In an...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins improved to -$172/head last week, up $31 from the prior week as sharply lower fed cattle prices more than offset a seasonal decline in the Choice cutout. The cutout fell to $382/cwt while fed cattle prices dropped to $248/cwt, allowing packers to recover some of the margin c...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.605/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.45/bushel, up $0.0975 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.91/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $316.3/short ton, up $1.3 fr...
Aquaculture: A Protein Production Growth Opportunity
Key Takeaways: Aquaculture is becoming increasingly important in meeting global seafood demand, gaining market share as wild-caught fisheries face production limitations. Superior feed conversion efficiency gives aquaculture a competitive advantage over traditional livestock production, with l...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The weather rally continues to shift fund positioning and sentiment from its former bearish posture to a far more bullish configuration. Managed money traders purchased 93,000 contracts across the ag markets, expanding their all-ags net long 98 percent in the process. The biggest drivers of the...
Market Commentary: Reassessing Weather and Geopolitical Risks
What You Need to Know Today: Rising hostilities and an end to any semblance of a ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran created geopolitical risk-off trade in macroeconomic markets, though the CBOT seemed immune. President Trump announced the U.S. military would resume its naval blockade on Iran...
Livestock WASDE
USDA released its monthly World Supply and Demand Estimates on Friday, forecasting tighter beef supplies and growing pork and broiler supplies. Beef production was lowered due to a slower fed cattle harvest, which was offset somewhat by cow slaughter. Fed cattle slaughter was forecast to...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.6325/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.3525/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.9475/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $315/short ton, down $3.7 fro...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.61/bushel, up $0.09 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.4025/bushel, up $0.205 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.9075/bushel, up $0.0925 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $318.7/short ton, up $3.3 from y...
Market Commentary: Bullish WASDE and Sea of Azov Strikes Lift Grains
What You Need to Know Today: Wheat prices surged after Ukrainian strikes on Russian vessels and infrastructure disrupted grain shipments, halting traffic through the Sea of Azov, Kerch Strait, and Black Sea. The July WASDE report offered a modestly supportive outlook for corn, wheat, and soybe...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.52/bushel, down $0.0425 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.1975/bushel, up $0.12 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.815/bushel, down $0.1075 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $315.4/short ton, up $4.2 fr...
Market Commentary: The Market Is Always Looking Ahead
Weather remains the dominant driver of grain markets this time of year, but this week's trade has been a reminder that futures markets are constantly looking ahead. Corn and soybean prices don't simply react to today's weather — they respond to where traders believe production risks will...
Livestock Round Up: UFCW Wants Big 4 to Get USDA Money
As we wrote in last week’s Livestock Round Up, the Administration has announced the Strengthening Processing for U.S. Ranchers (SPUR) program that will provide up to $500 million in payments for small- and medium-sized processors to buy cattle. The Big 4 packers are ineligible, which has...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.5625/bushel, down $0.08 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.0775/bushel, down $0.1075 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.9225/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $311.2/short ton, down $...
Market Commentary: Geopolitical Risk Back in Play
What You Need to Know Today: President Trump claimed the ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran was over, as both sides accused one another of violating the terms of the agreement. Commercial vessels are increasingly steering clear of the Strait of Hormuz as security risks escalate following Iran...
Can Lean Beef Futures Succeed Where Others Have Failed?
Key Takeaways: The CME Group is launching new 90 percent Lean Beef and 50 percent Lean Beef futures and options contracts in July. There are five key factors that must be present in physical markets and futures contract specifications for futures contracts to become successful. The two l...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.6425/bushel, up $0.065 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.185/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.9775/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $316.5/short ton, up $3 from ye...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rallies Amid Weather Market; U.S. Revokes Iran’s Oil Licenses
What You Need to Know Today: The hot, dry weather forecast continues to drive strength in grain futures with corn and soybeans hitting another day of strong gains. Monday’s Crop Progress and Conditions data were in line with market expectations and showed relatively few concerns for the...
Choice Boxed Beef Price Falls to Yearly Low
Yesterday we wrote about the Q1 GDP numbers and the June employment reports in an article entitled Real GDP for Q1 Relying on AI Buildout, Held Back by Consumer Spending. That article mentioned that consumer spending had become a drag on GDP. Nonetheless, real GDP in Q1 was revised upward to 2...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.5775/bushel, up $0.1625 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.14/bushel, up $0.1425 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.9225/bushel, up $0.445 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $313.5/short ton, up $9.1 from...
Market Commentary: Weather Risk Materializes
What You Need to Know Today: This time of year, grain markets are often just one weather forecast away from a sharp rally, and today's hotter, drier outlook provided the catalyst for significant gains in corn and soybean futures. Livestock markets were relatively quiet by comparison, with most...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.415/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $5.9975/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.4775/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $304.4/short ton, down...
Market Commentary: Trading Cools Off After an Eventful Report Week
What You Need to Know Today: The June jobs report showed nonfarm payrolls increased by 57k jobs, less than the 115k jobs expected by economists surveyed by Dow Jones. The labor force participation rate dropped by 0.3 percent to 61.5 percent, the lowest since March 2021, and the lowest in 50 ye...
Livestock Round Up: Trump Declines USMCA Renewal and Pledges $500 Million to Beef Processors
Today was the deadline for announcing intentions regarding renewal of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA); the U.S. will not renew the USMCA, according to U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer. President Trump will instead pursue separate bilateral trade deals with Canada and Mexico las...
U.S. Exports to Cuba: It’s About Displacement
As Cuba's economic crisis has deepened, discussions about the country's eventual economic and political transition have reemerged. One question that inevitably follows is what opportunities might emerge for U.S. agricultural exports. So, here’s a brief review of those opportunities, but n...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.4225/bushel, up $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6/bushel, up $0.1075 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.4925/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $304.7/short ton, up $1.6 from ye...
Market Commentary: New Month, New Trade?
Key Market Insights July is here, and the grain markets already feel like they are shifting gears. With the June USDA reports now behind us, inflation is back in the conversation, and traders are once again turning their attention to three familiar summer drivers: demand, money flow, and weathe...
Poultry’s Cost Effectiveness and Versatility Fueling Consumption Growth
Key Takeaways: Poultry is the fastest-growing major animal protein, supported by lower production costs, affordability, and broad consumer appeal. Broilers are the most feed-efficient major livestock species, giving chicken a lasting cost advantage over beef and pork. Short production cycles a...
Ethanol and Biodiesel Margins
What You Need To Know Today: Ethanol margins continue to run well above year-ago and normal seasonal values, but have slipped in recent weeks on weaker DDGS and ethanol pricing. WPI’s models project a steady decrease in returns to ethanol production following the end of the summer...
Summary of Futures
Sep 26 Corn closed at $4.1675/bushel, up $0.065 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $5.8925/bushel, up $0.095 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.4375/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $304.7/short ton, up $0 from...
Market Commentary: Acreage, Stocks Surprises Send Corn, Wheat Higher; Fund Selling Likely to Subside
What You Need to Know Today: The surprises from the USDA’s Acreage report were a sharp reduction in winter wheat area from the March Prospective Plantings estimates and a larger-than-expected increase in corn area. The Grain Stocks report offered relatively few surprises, but quarterly d...
High Oleic Soybeans: Premium Demand Growing, But Adoption Remains Limited
Key Takeaways: High oleic soybeans produce oil containing 70–80 percent oleic acid, improving stability and eliminating the need for partial hydrogenation, which eliminates trans fats. There are three primary varieties of high oleic soybeans available commercially: Plenish, Vistive Gold,...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins deteriorated to -$261/head last week, down $19 from the prior week as weaker beef values (especially the Choice cutout) were offset by firmer fed cattle prices, which further compressed packer profits. The cutout slipped to $387/cwt while fed cattle prices held above $259/cw...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.02/bushel, down $0.1075 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $5.7975/bushel, down $0.1 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.39/bushel, down $0.1725 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $304.7/short ton, down $2.3...
Market Commentary: CBOT Downside Risks Rise as Funds Pad Bearish Bets, Corn Hits New Lows
What You Need to Know Today: The U.S. and Iran reportedly agreed to pause hostilities to allow vessels to transit the Strait of Hormuz this week (theoretically, at least). There were some rumors of a possible Chinese blockade against Taiwan. Analysts are looking for the largest U.S. 1 June cor...
Senate Farm Bill, Prop 12, and NWS Update
Proposition 12: The National Pork Producers Council (NPPC) has advocated for a fix to Proposition 12, the California animal welfare law, in the Senate farm bill. The House version of the farm bill included a fix, but the Senate bill, based on the discussion draft released by Chairman John Boozm...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Bearish sentiment continues to dominate CBOT trade, which last week resulted in the ag markets seeing another period consecutive net liquidation. Managed money traders liquidated another 84,000 contracts (42 percent) of their prior all-ags net long, extending the pullback from the largest net l...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.1275/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $5.8975/bushel, down $0.1175 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.5625/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $307/short ton, down $1...
Market Commentary: Acreage Report Takes Center Stage
What You Need to Know Today: Crude oil prices dropped sharply with traffic flowing through the Strait of Hormuz. There were reports that Iran was behind an attack on a cargo ship near the coast of Oman, which would be a violation of the memorandum of understanding between the U.S. and Iran. Pr...
Senate Farm Bill and $11 Billion Supplemental Appropriation Request
On Wednesday, the White House submitted a national security supplemental spending request for $87.6 billion. The majority of the request includes funding for the conflict in the Middle East, but there are agricultural provisions as well. The supplemental funding package includes more than $11 b...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.1475/bushel, up $0.0775 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.015/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.57/bushel, up $0.22 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $308.2/short ton, up $4.6 from ye...
Market Commentary: Focus Turns to New Crop Export Sales
What You Need to Know Today: The Personal Consumption Expenditures Index (PCE) rose 4.1 percent year-over-year, in line with expectations. Core PCE, which excludes volatile energy and food prices, rose 3.4 percent year-over-year, also in line with expectations. Bayer secured a favorable Suprem...
Livestock Round Up: Hogs and Pigs Report
USDA released its Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report for 1 June today. There were 73.7 million head, which was down slightly from 1 June 2025, as well as from 1 March 2026. The hog herd sits at the same level it was on 1 September 2025 and is the lowest for June since 2023. From 2016, after the re...
Mid-Year Cow-Calf Profitability Projections
Key Takeaways: Despite rising cost pressures — including the recent run-up in fuel and energy costs — U.S. cow-calf producers are facing another year of record-breaking revenues and net returns for 2026. Cost pressures — particularly non-feed variable costs — and...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.07/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $5.96/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.35/bushel, down $0.0675 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $303.6/short ton, up $0.7 fro...
Market Commentary: The Battle for Support
Key Market Insights Outside markets dominated today’s session. Crude oil traded below $70 per barrel, the U.S. dollar climbed to a 13-month high, and both gold and silver posted sharp declines as traders increased expectations for additional Federal Reserve rate hikes. At the same time, t...
Soybean Crush Margin Forecast
What You Need to Know Today… Crush margins are set to pull back after their recent rallies, though U.S. markets will fare better than others. U.S. demand-led strength in soyoil pricing is a key driver of U.S. margin profitability and will remain so into mid-autumn. Soymeal prices are th...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.0975/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $5.97/bushel, down $0.105 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.4175/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $302.9/short ton, up $3.1...
Market Commentary: Searching for Something New
What You Need to Know Today: There is a global rotation out of tech stocks right now amid profit-taking and expectations of interest rate hikes later this year. The White House said Iran will use its upcoming unsanctioned oil revenue to buy U.S. agricultural products, a claim that Iran later s...
Hogs and Pigs Report Preview
USDA will release its Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report on Thursday. Below are analysts’ estimates for the report. The biggest change since the 1 March report is the number of market hogs, which is expected to be up 1.1 percent from what was implied in March. The percent increase in hogs we...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins deteriorated to -$243/head last week, down $25 from the prior week as higher fed cattle prices more than offset a slight decline in the Choice cutout. The cutout eased to $390/cwt while fed cattle prices climbed to $260/cwt - just of all-time highs - extending the seasonal s...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Funds continue to hold broadly bearish sentiments resulted in the ag markets as last week marked another in a string of consecutive net liquidation periods. Managed money traders liquidated another 105,000 contracts (35 percent) of their prior all-ags net long, extending the pullback from the l...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.115/bushel, down $0.06 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.075/bushel, down $0.065 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.415/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $299.8/short ton, down $1.5...
Market Commentary: Mixed Macro Signals Keeping Grains Rangebound
What You Need to Know Today: The U.S. Treasury Department authorized the production, delivery, and sale of Iranian oil for 60 days after “productive talks” with Iran in Switzerland over the weekend. Chevron and Microsoft entered into a 20-year agreement to develop Project Kilby, a...
Cattle on Feed for June 2026
U.S. Cattle on Feed increased two percent in feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head to total 11.7 million on June 1, 2026. Placements in feedlots during May totaled 1.70 million head, 10 percent below 2025. Marketings of fed cattle during May totaled 1.55 million head, 12 perc...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.175/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.14/bushel, down $0.0725 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.4275/bushel, down $0.065 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $301.3/short ton, down $3...
Market Commentary: Selling Across Most Commodities After Hawkish Fed
What You Need to Know Today: Commodities were mostly lower across the board today after yesterday’s Federal Reserve meeting hinted at a potential interest rate hike later in 2026. The dollar index reached its highest level in over a year, and a strong dollar makes U.S. agricultural expor...
Livestock Round Up: Cattle on Feed
Tomorrow is the Juneteenth federal holiday, and the USDA, along with the rest of the federal government and the CME, will be closed, so the monthly Cattle on Feed report was released a day early. The total number of cattle on feed in feedlots with 1,000 head or more capacity on 1 June amounted...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.21/bushel, up $0.0725 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $6.1275/bushel, up $0.1675 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $11.32/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $304.8/short ton, up $0 from yest...
Market Commentary: Markets on Pins & Needles
Key Market Insights Geopolitical Limbo: Geopolitical risk remained a key driver across global commodity markets today. President Trump stated that the Iran memorandum of understanding is not yet final and warned that military action could resume if negotiations fail. Both sides continue w...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.1375/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $5.96/bushel, up $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $11.3/bushel, up $0.1075 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $304.8/short ton, up $2.8 from...
Market Commentary: China Buying Rumors Lift Soybeans; Cattle Rise on Beef Demand Hopes
What You Need to Know Today: American and Mexican officials met Tuesday and will meet again Wednesday for another round of trade talks, where ag and energy will be a key topic. Another round is scheduled for 20 July. Ag groups are urging President Trump to renew USMCA for another 16 years, but...
New World Screwworm Spreading North
Since the first U.S. case of New World Screwworm (NWS) was confirmed on 3 June, USDA has confirmed 12 cases. The latest was confirmed in a sheep on 12 June, with four additional cases confirmed in Texas on 11 June, three in cattle and one in a goat. The New Mexico case confirmed that the infect...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins deteriorated to -$218/head last week, down $20 from the prior week as a softer Choice cutout combined with slightly lower fed cattle prices. The cutout slipped to $391/cwt while fed cattle prices eased to $256/cwt, leaving packer profits under pressure. Margins remain deeply...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.155/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $5.8975/bushel, up $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $11.1925/bushel, up $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $302/short ton, up $0.7 from...
Market Commentary: CBOT Bounces on Iran Peace Deal Despite Bearish Long-Run Outlook
What You Need to Know Today: The U.S. and Iran agreed to a peace deal on Monday with the deal expected to be signed Friday in Switzerland. The memorandum signed is explicit that Iran will allow 60 days of toll-free transit for all traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, and President Trump annou...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The ongoing shift in ag commodity markets from bullish to bearish sentiments resulted in funds halving their all-ags net long last week, liquidating 330,000 contracts (52 percent), pulling back from the largest net long since at least 2016 forged just five weeks prior. This, combined with the w...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.1275/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $5.845/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $11.135/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $301.3/short ton, down $0.4...
Market Commentary: Quiet Trade Follows WASDE as Livestock Sector Faces Capacity Shifts
What You Need to Know Today: It was a quiet trading day across major agricultural commodities, with most contracts closing within 1 percent of the previous day's settlement. Trading volumes for corn and the soy complex were lighter than earlier in the week, as traders were positioning before a...
Policy Roundup: NWS, Section 122 Tariffs, and Dairy Producer Agenda
New World Screwworm Another day, another case of New World Screwworm. USDA has reported nine cases of New World Screwworm (NWS) in the U.S. Of the nine reported cases, eight are located across four counties in Texas—Edwards, Gillespie, La Salle, and Zavala. Of the eight cases in Texas, si...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.1175/bushel, down $0.0725 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $5.8675/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $11.15/bushel, down $0.08 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $301.7/short ton, down $0...
Market Commentary: June WASDE Light on Major Balance Sheet Changes
What You Need to Know Today: The June WASDE report was largely in line with expectations, with no major market-altering changes to the balance sheets. The Producer Price Index rose by 1.1 percent month-over-month in May 2026, exceeding economist estimates of a 0.7 percent rise. The annual head...
Livestock Round Up: NWS and USMCA Renegotiation
USDA’s National Veterinary Services confirmed three new cases of New World Screwworm, including one in a calf in La Salle County, Texas, a goat in Texas, and a dog in New Mexico. That brings the total to six cases. The border to Mexico is closed, with Mexico now implementing a prohibition...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.19/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $5.875/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $11.23/bushel, up $0.0925 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $301.9/short ton, up $0.8 from...
Market Commentary: The Return of Risk Premium
Key Market Insights Macro Markets: Inflation and Iran Reenter the Conversation Just when the grain trade had become comfortable focusing almost exclusively on weather, two major macro stories returned to the spotlight this morning: inflation and Iran. May CPI came in hotter than expected, with...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.195/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $5.8525/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $11.1375/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $301.1/short ton, down $1.6 fr...
Market Commentary: Pre-WASDE Stabilization Continues, But What Next?
What You Need to Know Today: Early Tuesday, the U.S. Energy Secretary said vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is rising in a “very meaningful way.” Tuesday afternoon, however, President Trump said Iran shot down a U.S. helicopter while it was patrolling the Strait of Hormu...
China Market Analysis
Miscellaneous Initial excitement over China’s pledges to buy American farm products has faded, as no purchases have immediately materialized. USDA Deputy Secretary Stephen Vaden said he is confident that China will meet its purchase commitments from the U.S., but market conditions and tra...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins were essentially unchanged at -$201/head last week as a modest increase in the Choice cutout was offset by steady fed cattle prices. The cutout edged higher to $392/cwt while fed cattle prices held near $257/cwt, leaving packer spreads largely unchanged. Margins remain deepl...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.1875/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $5.8325/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $11.1575/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $302.7/short ton, down $5...
Market Commentary: Technical Trade Drives CBOT, Sends Wheat Higher and Soybeans Lower
What You Need to Know Today: After a volatile weekend with Israel and Iran launching attacks at each other, peace seems to have returned to the region after President Trump called for both sides to cease hostilities. Soybean trade remains defensive as funds are liquidating longs amid no signs...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds reducing net long positions across most of the major ag futures contracts for the third straight week. Funds reduced the all-ags net long by 188,000 contracts (23 percent), pulling back from the largest net long since at least 2016 forged just four weeks...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.175/bushel, down $0.07 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $5.8/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $11.215/bushel, down $0.08 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $308.5/short ton, down $5.2 fr...
Market Commentary: Strong Jobs Report Lowers Risk Appetite
What You Need to Know Today: Non-farm payrolls rose by 172,000 jobs in May, above economist expectations of 80,000 jobs. With the job market strong, the Fed may consider raising interest rates to tame inflation. The strong jobs report was a catalyst for lower risk appetite across financial and...
Screwworm Updates; Executive Action on Import Enforcement; Bullish Jobs Report
Newworld screwworm Update The detection of New World screwworm (NWS) in Texas on Wednesday has been volatile for the cattle markets. The confirmation came on Wednesday evening, and the futures market opened sharply lower on Thursday. Market participants cited unknowns about cattle supplies and...
Market Commentary: New World Screwworm Appears in the U.S., Grains and Soy Sink
What You Need to Know Today: A case of New World Screwworm was detected in Texas, the first in the U.S. since 1966. With cases creeping closer to the U.S. border, it was only a matter of time. APHIS confirmed that larvae were detected in the umbilical area of a 3-week-old calf in Zavala County...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.245/bushel, down $0.07 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $5.8175/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $11.295/bushel, down $0.245 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $313.7/short ton, down $7.1...
Livestock Roundup: Screwworm in Texas Problem
The USDA’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) has confirmed a case of New World Screwworm (NWS) in Texas. This comes two days after a USDA press conference on New World Screwworm (NWS) where Secretary Rollins noted that a new press conference would be held every two...
Market Commentary: Risk Premium: Gone or Just Hiding?
Key Market Insights Macro: Dollar Up, Stocks Down The U.S. dollar moved higher today, creating another headwind for American exports. A stronger dollar makes U.S. commodities more expensive on the global market and can make it harder for exporters to compete against South American and Black Sea...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.315/bushel, down $0.09 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $5.8725/bushel, down $0.1575 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $11.54/bushel, down $0.1125 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $320.8/short ton, down $5...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.405/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $6.03/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $11.6525/bushel, down $0.155 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $326.2/short ton, down $0...
Beef Supply and Demand Issues
Beef prices hit record highs in April 2026, and that is in large part due to robust consumer demand. Despite economic pressures on consumers, there is not much evidence of consumers trading down from beef. Much of that was due to the COVID pandemic when consumers learned new ways to...
China Market Analysis
Corn The U.S. has yet to ship any corn to China, though last year’s sales were a paltry 32 KMT. Soybeans U.S. soybean export inspections for May rose above the previous year’s level with China as the target market. Citing reduced demand for soymeal, the Ministry of Agriculture...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins improved to -$200/head last week, up $57 from the prior week as the Choice cutout strengthened while fed cattle prices moved lower. The cutout rose to $392/cwt, continuing its seasonal climb into summer demand, while fed cattle prices eased to $257/cwt. The improvement helpe...
Market Commentary: Bears Control CBOT at Least Until Weather Market Forms
What You Need to Know Today: U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent said Friday that the U.S. has seized $1b of Iranian crypto assets. Iran’s IGGC says 15 merchant vessels, including 4 oil tankers, have passed through the Strait of Hormuz in the past 24 hours. Managed money traders...
Key Factors that Sparked Brazil’s Growth into an Agricultural Powerhouse
Key Takeaways: Acidity: Brazil’s agricultural production rose significantly after agricultural researchers were able to reduce soil acidity in the Cerrado region. Rotation: Farmers in the Center-West of Brazil, where the Cerrado is located, enjoy a soybean/corn double cropping advantage...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.44/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $6.0875/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $11.8075/bushel, down $0.06 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $326.5/short ton, down $3...
Poultry and Egg Markets Weighed Against HPAI
From the monthly cold storage report it is interesting to look at the poultry numbers and changes due to HPAI that has been plaguing the sector to some degree since 2022. Total chicken in cold storage was up 1.1 percent on the year and up 0.9 percent on the month. For eggs, the total inve...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds reducing net long positions across most of the major ag futures contracts for the third straight week. Funds reduced the all-ags net long 169,000 contracts (17 percent), pulling back from the largest net long since at least 2016 forged just three weeks pr...
Market Commentary: Risk-off tone hits grains and livestock
What You Need to Know Today: Agricultural commodities were mostly lower on the day, with red-hot soyoil a notable exception. Export sales were a bit underwhelming, particularly for corn with export sales down 52 percent week-over-week. The weakness in ag markets tracked crude oil weakness wit...
Commodity Policy Being Shaped by Unfolding Farm Crisis
With the war in Iran affecting fuel and fertilizer prices, higher tariffs, weak commodity prices, ag labor constraints, and other factors, farm bankruptcies are now at a 6-year high, a signal of growing stress. During the month of April, 62 Chapter 12 bankruptcies were filed, which is a 1...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.4675/bushel, down $0.09 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $6.105/bushel, down $0.135 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $11.8675/bushel, down $0.0775 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $329.8/short ton, down $4...
Market Commentary: Grains and oilseeds see strength on high PCE reading, Crude oil and macros remain topsy-turvy with U.S.-Iran headline risk
What You Need to Know Today: The U.S. struck Iranian military targets for the second time this week. During a cabinet meeting, President Trump said that the Strait of Hormuz is international waters and will be open to everybody, which appears to be wishful thinking. Control of the Strait...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.5575/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $6.24/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $11.945/bushel, up $0.0925 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $334.1/short ton, up $3.5 from...
Livestock Roundup: More Dairy Cow Slaughter Later This Year
A total of 79,000 cows has been added to the dairy herd since last December, which compares to 81,000 head added to the dairy herd over the same period in 2025. This similarity in herd expansion numbers in early 2025 and 2026 has kept dairy cow slaughter at the same level in each of the two yea...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins improved to -$257/head last week, up $39 from the prior week as the Choice cutout strengthened while fed cattle prices eased. The cutout rose to nearly $390/cwt, while fed cattle prices slipped to $260/cwt, allowing packer spreads to recover modestly from the prior week&rsqu...
Market Commentary: Trading Headlines, Pricing Risk
Key Market Insights Today was another reminder that this market is trading headlines first, facts second. Early optimism surrounding reports of a possible U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding helped pressure energy risk premium and kept the broader commodity space defensive. An hour later, how...
Producers' Share of Beef Value Up, Packer Margins Down
Key Takeaways: Cattle producers are currently capturing a greater proportion of total retail beef values amid tight cattle supplies. Packers are forced to make higher bids on cattle to keep operations running when supplies are tight, hurting packer margins. Sustained poor packer margins...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.525/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $6.225/bushel, down $0.13 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $11.8525/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $330.6/short ton, up $2 fro...
Market Commentary: CBOT Falls on Better Weather, Geopolitical Trade Dynamics
What You Need to Know Today: The U.S. conducted “self-defense strikes” in Iran and said the two sides are “close” to negotiating a ceasefire. “Close” is a relative term, however, and even if 95 percent of the terms are agreed to, the remaining 5 percent is l...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.575/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $6.355/bushel, down $0.1075 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $11.86/bushel, down $0.105 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $328.6/short ton, down $3...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds reducing net long positions across most of the major ag futures contracts for the second straight week. Funds reduced the all-ags net long by 4,300 contracts (0.4 percent), pulling back from the largest net long since at least 2016 forged just two weeks p...
China Market Analysis
Grain China’s General Administration of Customs says that grain imports were up 34.3 percent in April and an overall 18.1 percent for the January to April period. On the one hand, China produces more grain that it consumes and stockpiles large volumes. But Canadian grain analyst Mitch Mil...
Market Commentary: Small Gains as Corn/Soybeans Correct; Commodity Supercycle
What You Need to Know Today: The corn and soybean markets closed slightly higher in low-volume trade. The wheat market was mixed, with HRW continuing its downward trek on improved moisture. As expected, the bearish cattle on feed report drove down cattle prices and pulled hogs down with it. Mi...
U.S. Cattle on Feed on May 1, 2026
• U.S. Cattle on Feed Up in feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 11.6 million on May 1, 2026 - 2 percent above May 1, 2025. • Placements in feedlots during April totaled 1.70 million head - 6 percent above 2025. • Marketings of fed cattle during April totale...
Cattle on Feed Report: Neutral with Bearish Undertones
USDA’s monthly cattle on feed report was released today. The total number of cattle on feed in feedlots with 1,000 head or more capacity amounted to 11.6 million head, 102 percent of last year. Source: USDA, WPI Placements were up, but part of that is attributable to persistent drought c...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.605/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.3025/bushel, down $0.1025 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.6875/bushel, down $0.1075 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $310.9/short ton, down...
Market Commentary: Larger Global Supply Fears Send CBOT Lower Ahead of WASDE
What You Need to Know Today: The latest EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook forecast 2027 U.S. WTI crude oil at $65.39/brl, up about $5 from the prior forecast. President Trump late Monday claimed the U.S. has swept the entire Strait of Hormuz (SOH) for sea mines. Iran’s security council said...
Understanding Protein Content in Soymeal
Key Takeaways: Soymeal with 44 percent protein generally contains more soybean hulls and fiber, while 48 percent soymeal is more extensively dehulled, resulting in higher protein concentration and lower fiber. CBOT soymeal futures were lowered from a 48 percent to 47.5 percent protein specific...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins deteriorated sharply to -$167/head last week, down $89 from the prior week as fed cattle prices rebounded while the Choice cutout continued to weaken. The cutout slipped to $363/cwt, while fed cattle prices climbed to $235/cwt, reversing much of the recent improvement in pac...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Favorable U.S. weather overrode the Black Sea export impacts in last week’s trade and left more bearish sentiments to dominate the CBOT. Managed money traders sold 65,000 contracts across the ag markets, reducing their all-ags net long 11 percent in the process. The biggest drivers of the...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.6175/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.405/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.795/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $311.6/short ton, down $1.8...
Market Commentary: WASDE, Black Sea, and Iran Offer Offsetting Effects on Grain Futures
What You Need to Know Today: Tensions in the Middle East escalated over the weekend with Iran demanding the U.S. make multiple concessions that are likely non-starters before traffic can flow through the Strait of Hormuz again. Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Turkey signed a mutual defense agreeme...
Senate Farm Bill: What’s Next?
Senator John Boozman (R-Arkansas) has urged farmers to apply pressure on the failed farm bill during the August recess. His intent is to hold another vote on the legislation as soon as possible upon the Senate’s return from a five-week break on 14 September. From a parliamentary perspecti...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.62/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.3975/bushel, up $0.085 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.7625/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $313.4/short ton, down $3.2 from y...
Market Commentary: Attention Turns to August WASDE Yield Estimates
What You Need to Know Today: Traders are increasingly focused on next Wednesday’s August WASDE report, with corn and soybean yield estimates expected to drive the next major move in grain markets. Recent crop condition declines and late-July heat have increased uncertainty around USDA&rs...
Market Commentary: Grain Markets Awaiting New Catalysts
What You Need to Know Today: Iran has developed an initial draft plan that would prohibit U.S. and Israeli ships from transiting the Strait of Hormuz, increasing concerns over potential disruptions to global energy trade. Although no restrictions have been enacted, the proposal adds anot...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.62/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.3125/bushel, down $0.11 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.7775/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $316.6/short ton, up $1 from yest...
EU Marks Paradigm Shift with Cattle
For years, the EU treated its cows, pigs, and broilers mainly as a source of emissions to be reduced. This week the European Commission gave them a new job title: "critical infrastructure." According to the EU’s official livestock strategy presented in Strasbourg, France, livestock underp...
Wool Economics: A Missing U.S. Value Chain
Wool is one of the most misunderstood U.S. agricultural commodities. Fine wool in the 17–21 micron range commands premium prices in luxury apparel, technical outdoor gear, and high-end knitwear, while coarser wool is gaining support as building codes and standards shift toward natural-fib...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.6/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.4225/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.7475/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $315.6/short ton, down $2.8 f...
Market Commentary: Caution Beneath the Headlines
There are plenty of major headlines moving across the markets today, but the reaction beneath them remains cautious. Crude oil is holding steady despite reports of progress involving the Strait of Hormuz, corn and soybeans remain tied to changing weather forecasts, and wheat continues to weigh...
Market Commentary: Improved Weather Outlook, Possible Iran Deal Send Grains, Oil Lower
What You Need to Know Today: U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent said the U.S. and Iran could “today or tomorrow” reach a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Despite the Secretary’s claims, an attack on a vessel off the Omani coast suggests plenty of risk remains in forming a lo...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins slipped modestly for the first time in four weeks, declining $15/head to -$78 as fed cattle prices firmed while boxed beef values continued to weaken. The Choice cutout eased another $2.63/cwt to $364.69, while dressed cattle prices fell only $2.76/cwt to $362.25/cwt, limiti...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.655/bushel, down $0.07 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.385/bushel, down $0.125 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.7775/bushel, down $0.145 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $318.4/short ton, down $3.2...
Offal Meat: Challenges and Opportunities in a Global Market
Key Takeaways: Offal represents an important segment of global meat trade by adding value to underutilized portions of livestock carcasses and improving overall resource efficiency. Strong export demand for products such as pork variety meats and chicken feet allows processors to maximize carc...
Market Commentary: Black Sea Export Halts, U.S. Weather Risks Send CBOT Higher
What You Need to Know Today: President Trump suspended the planned attacks on Iran and announced that the pieces for a framework for peace were in place in a weekend social media post. Iran, however, later said no efforts were underway to conduct negotiations with the U.S., though Oman indicat...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The escalating impacts of Russia and Ukraine’s recent attacks and counter attacks in the Black Sea continues to drive bullish CBOT sentiments. Managed money traders purchased 122,000 contracts across the ag markets, expanding their all-ags net long 27 percent in the process. The biggest d...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.725/bushel, up $0.085 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.51/bushel, up $0.1175 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.9225/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $321.6/short ton, up $0.4 from...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.64/bushel, down $0.045 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.3925/bushel, down $0.2425 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.875/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $321.2/short ton, down $1...
Market Commentary: Record Soyoil Demand Contrasts With Grain Market Weakness
What You Need to Know Today: Record biofuel demand continues to support soyoil values, as EIA data show that May soyoil usage as a biofuel feedstock reached a record 1.434 billion pounds. The latest data reinforces the strength of renewable fuel demand and helps explain ongoing investment in a...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.685/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.635/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.8875/bushel, down $0.04 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $322.8/short ton, down $0.7...
Market Commentary: Cattle Outperform Hogs on Quiet Day for Corn and Soy
What You Need to Know Today: The U.S. and Iran resumed missile strikes after a brief pause in fighting, raising concerns that the five-month conflict could expand across the Middle East. Jordan intercepted Iranian missiles, Kuwait reported a fatal strike, and drone attacks damaged two natural...
Livestock Roundup: Senate Farm Bill Threats to Meat Industry
The Senate Agriculture Committee will take up the farm bill next week, and a number of amendments targeting the meat industry are expected to be offered. Two of the most potentially damaging are the Schumer amendment, based on his bill, the Family Grocery and Farmer Relief Act, and mandatory co...
The Consumer Reset: How GLP-1, Protein, and Value Are Reshaping Foodservice
The industry has spent two years bracing for GLP-1 medications to hollow out demand, but the data so far tells a more interesting story. Roughly one in eight adults currently uses a GLP-1, and an additional 29 percent of non-users say they would consider it if it became more accessible and cost...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.7175/bushel, down $0.0875 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.6075/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.9275/bushel, down $0.2725 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $323.5/short ton, dow...
Market Commentary: War Moves Oil. Weather Moves Grain.
If Wednesday’s trade proved anything, it is that not every market is listening to the same headline. Renewed fighting between the U.S. and Iran sent crude oil sharply higher after Iran fired ballistic missiles at an American airbase in Jordan. President Trump promised a U.S. response, pus...
Small Ruminants: A Global Protein System the U.S. Market Has Yet to Price In
Executive Summary Sheep and goats represent one of the largest livestock protein systems in the world, with an estimated 2.3 billion head globally; however, they remain almost entirely absent from U.S. agricultural policy, trade strategy, and market forecasting. The U.S. small ruminant herd, at...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.805/bushel, up $0.065 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.625/bushel, up $0.025 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.2/bushel, up $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $327.8/short ton, up $3.7 from yes...
Market Commentary: Grains Rally as Crop Ratings Fall; Global Shipping Becomes More Perilous
What You Need to Know Today: Shipping in the Black Sea is at a standstill, with neither Ukraine nor Russia yet ready to swerve in this game of maritime and export brinkmanship. Israeli media suggests the U.S. and Iran may be close to making a deal or at least restoring the memorandum of unders...
Brazil’s Emergence as a Major Pork Exporter
Key Takeaways: Brazil’s pork exports have more than doubled since 2019 as competitive feed costs, ASF-free status, and expanding global demand have strengthened the country’s position in international markets. Brazil’s abundant domestic production of corn and soybeans provide...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins continued to recover for a third consecutive week, improving $67/head to -$63/head as fed cattle prices fell about $30 in the past 5 weeks. The Choice cutout slipped another $5/cwt to $367/cwt, but fed cattle prices fell an even steeper $12/cwt to $365/cwt (dressed), allowin...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.74/bushel, down $0.135 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.6/bushel, down $0.18 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.1375/bushel, down $0.3975 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $324.1/short ton, down $11.1...
Market Commentary: Commodity Sell-Off on Middle East De-escalation and Border Reopening
What You Need to Know Today: It was just one of those days where seemingly everything was in the red as part of a broader risk-off economic sentiment amid de-escalation headlines in the Middle East. Other key fundamentals were also bearish, including the resumption of Mexican cattle imports an...
Cow-Calf Profit Outlook Riskier on Drought, Cost Pressures
Key Takeaways: U.S. cow-calf producers are facing another year of record-breaking revenues and net returns for 2026, though rising cost pressures and pullbacks in cattle prices increase risks. Drought remains a key concern for much of the cow-calf industry this year, with rising feed cos...
New World Screwworm: Phased Re-Opening of Mexican Border
USDA announced on Friday the coordinated, phased reopening of southern U.S.-Mexico livestock ports starting 24 August 2026, after more than a year of closures due to the spread of New World screwworm (NWS). Douglas, Arizona, will be the first port of entry to resume cattle trade on 24 August. T...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.875/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.78/bushel, down $0.1825 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.535/bushel, up $0.0975 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $335.2/short ton, up $3.3 from yes...
U.S. Cattle on Feed - July 1 2026
U.S. Cattle on Feed on July 1 totaled 11.4 million head, 2 percent above July 1, 2025. Placements in feedlots during June totaled 1.40 million head, 3 percent below 2025. Marketings of fed cattle during June totaled 1.66 million head, 3 percent below 2025. Other disappearance totaled 50,0...
Market Commentary: Black Sea Headlines Shake Wheat Markets
What You Need to Know Today: The Trump administration announced new tariffs of 10 percent to 12.5 percent on imports from 60 major U.S. trading partners as part of a Section 301 action aimed at combating forced labor in global supply chains. Countries that have agreed to adopt and enforce bans...
Cattle on Feed and Cattle Inventory Reports
USDA’s monthly cattle on feed report was released today, along with the semi-annual cattle inventory report. The total number of cattle on feed in feedlots with a capacity of 1,000 head or more amounted to 11.4 million head, or 102 percent of last year. All cattle and calves totaled 94.2...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.875/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.9625/bushel, down $0.095 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.4375/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $331.9/short ton, down $1 f...
Market Commentary: Oil Surge, Weather Risks and Export Demand Drive Grain Market Strength
What You Need to Know Today: Oil prices surged today following reports of tanker attacks off the coast of Saudi Arabia by Houthi rebels and renewed U.S. threats to escalate military strikes against Iran, heightening concerns over potential disruptions to Middle East energy supplies. Brent crud...
Shifts in Global Hunger
Key Takeaways: The latest UN data shows solid progress reducing global hunger and food insecurity. The geography of hunger-affected people has shifted substantially, however, and Africa is now the most affected region. To understand why hunger patterns have shifted and what policy option...
Livestock Roundup: Cattle on Feed and Semi-Annual Inventory Report Preview
USDA’s monthly cattle on feed report for 1 July will be released tomorrow. Analysts’ pre-report consensus estimates are for the total inventory on feed to be 102.2 percent of last year. Those estimates imply an on-feed inventory of 11.327 million head. If accurate, that would be the...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.8475/bushel, up $0.095 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $7.0575/bushel, up $0.2775 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.39/bushel, up $0.1625 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $332.9/short ton, up $5.6 from...
Market Commentary: Wild Wednesday: Weather, War and Worry
Grains posted strong gains today, putting the bulls firmly in the driver’s seat. There was no shortage of fuel for the move, with three W’s driving the rally: weather, war and worry. Weather: Cooler temperatures are temporarily easing stress across the Northern Plains and Midwest, b...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.7525/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.78/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.2275/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $327.3/short ton, up $3.5 from...
Market Commentary: Grains Rally on Momentum, Weather; Soybeans Sag on Quiet Exports
What You Need to Know Today: Grain futures fell hard overnight after the USDA’s Crop Conditions report showed better-than-expected ratings for corn and soybeans, despite difficult weather last week. The Conditions report was even more bearish in light of meaningfully beneficial rains acr...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins improved to -$130/head last week, up $44 from the prior week as sharply lower fed cattle prices more than offset continued seasonal weakness in the Choice cutout. The cutout declined to $373/cwt while fed cattle prices fell to $238/cwt, allowing packer spreads to recover for...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.73/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.74/bushel, down $0.0875 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.2625/bushel, up $0.2325 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $323.8/short ton, up $5.3 from...
Market Commentary: Soybeans Pop on China Buying; Weather Fuels Corn Rally; Cattle Score Reversal
What You Need to Know Today: The conflict between the U.S. and Iran continues to escalate with the two sides exchanging attacks over the weekend. President Trump said Iran “will pay” for recent attacks that claimed the lives of U.S. troops stationed in Jordan. There are some signs...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The weather rally in conjunction with the resumption of the war in Iran and the export-tightening impacts of Russia and Ukraine’s recent attacks and counter attacks continues to drive bullish CBOT sentiments. Managed money traders purchased 93,000 contracts across the ag markets, expandin...
Trade Overview: USMCA, Brazil Section 301 Investigation, Section 122 Tariffs
USMCA Re-Negotiations At the Iowa Farm Bureau Economic Summit on Friday, former USTR Robert Lighthizer stated that the USMCA renegotiations should focus on the trade deficit with Mexico rather than the trade pact itself. The U.S. deficit with Mexico exceeds $170 billion, including a net deficit...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.675/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.8275/bushel, up $0.08 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.03/bushel, up $0.08 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $318.5/short ton, down $3.9 from ye...
Market Commentary: Geopolitical Tensions Driving Markets
What You Need to Know Today: The U.S. and Iran exchanged strikes, with the U.S. hitting Iranian bridges, energy sites, and military infrastructure. Iran launched a missile into Kuwait that damaged a desalination plant. Crude oil futures surged on heightened Middle East tensions, providing supp...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.64/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.7475/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.95/bushel, down $0.0675 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $322.4/short ton, up $2.4...
Market Commentary: Cattle Markets Remain Under Pressure, China Buys More Soybeans
What You Need to Know Today: Iran warned that it will retaliate against the U.S. if American strikes target Iranian infrastructure, as President Trump has threatened to do next week if negotiations between the two nations do not resume. President Trump is scheduled to deliver a primetime addre...
Livestock Round Up: Turkey Production Poised to Rebound Some
Turkeys for Thanksgiving are typically placed this month. Turkey production has suffered from HPAI and other diseases for the past two years, and placements are still down overall. However, at more than 34 pounds per bird, overall production is being supported by heavier weights and increased p...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.695/bushel, up $0.09 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.775/bushel, up $0.325 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.0175/bushel, up $0.1075 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $320/short ton, up $3.7 from yes...
Market Commentary: The Bulls Are Back in Town?
After spending much of the year searching for a reason to stay, the bulls suddenly have several. Grain markets have strengthened, wheat is leading the charge, outside markets are becoming more supportive, and geopolitical and weather risks are once again demanding attention. Does that mean the...
Market Commentary: Corn, Soybeans Fall on Conditions Data; Wheat Reverses the Reversal
What You Need to Know Today: Attacks between the U.S. and Iran intensified overnight and the U.S. Central Command reported that the U.S. naval blockade against Iran will begin at 3:00 PM CDT Tuesday. President Trump said the Strait of Hormuz is open to all shipping traffic, except Iran. In an...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins improved to -$172/head last week, up $31 from the prior week as sharply lower fed cattle prices more than offset a seasonal decline in the Choice cutout. The cutout fell to $382/cwt while fed cattle prices dropped to $248/cwt, allowing packers to recover some of the margin c...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.605/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.45/bushel, up $0.0975 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.91/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $316.3/short ton, up $1.3 fr...
Aquaculture: A Protein Production Growth Opportunity
Key Takeaways: Aquaculture is becoming increasingly important in meeting global seafood demand, gaining market share as wild-caught fisheries face production limitations. Superior feed conversion efficiency gives aquaculture a competitive advantage over traditional livestock production, with l...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The weather rally continues to shift fund positioning and sentiment from its former bearish posture to a far more bullish configuration. Managed money traders purchased 93,000 contracts across the ag markets, expanding their all-ags net long 98 percent in the process. The biggest drivers of the...
Market Commentary: Reassessing Weather and Geopolitical Risks
What You Need to Know Today: Rising hostilities and an end to any semblance of a ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran created geopolitical risk-off trade in macroeconomic markets, though the CBOT seemed immune. President Trump announced the U.S. military would resume its naval blockade on Iran...
Livestock WASDE
USDA released its monthly World Supply and Demand Estimates on Friday, forecasting tighter beef supplies and growing pork and broiler supplies. Beef production was lowered due to a slower fed cattle harvest, which was offset somewhat by cow slaughter. Fed cattle slaughter was forecast to...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.6325/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.3525/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.9475/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $315/short ton, down $3.7 fro...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.61/bushel, up $0.09 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.4025/bushel, up $0.205 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.9075/bushel, up $0.0925 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $318.7/short ton, up $3.3 from y...
Market Commentary: Bullish WASDE and Sea of Azov Strikes Lift Grains
What You Need to Know Today: Wheat prices surged after Ukrainian strikes on Russian vessels and infrastructure disrupted grain shipments, halting traffic through the Sea of Azov, Kerch Strait, and Black Sea. The July WASDE report offered a modestly supportive outlook for corn, wheat, and soybe...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.52/bushel, down $0.0425 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.1975/bushel, up $0.12 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.815/bushel, down $0.1075 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $315.4/short ton, up $4.2 fr...
Market Commentary: The Market Is Always Looking Ahead
Weather remains the dominant driver of grain markets this time of year, but this week's trade has been a reminder that futures markets are constantly looking ahead. Corn and soybean prices don't simply react to today's weather — they respond to where traders believe production risks will...
Livestock Round Up: UFCW Wants Big 4 to Get USDA Money
As we wrote in last week’s Livestock Round Up, the Administration has announced the Strengthening Processing for U.S. Ranchers (SPUR) program that will provide up to $500 million in payments for small- and medium-sized processors to buy cattle. The Big 4 packers are ineligible, which has...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.5625/bushel, down $0.08 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.0775/bushel, down $0.1075 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.9225/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $311.2/short ton, down $...
Market Commentary: Geopolitical Risk Back in Play
What You Need to Know Today: President Trump claimed the ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran was over, as both sides accused one another of violating the terms of the agreement. Commercial vessels are increasingly steering clear of the Strait of Hormuz as security risks escalate following Iran...
Can Lean Beef Futures Succeed Where Others Have Failed?
Key Takeaways: The CME Group is launching new 90 percent Lean Beef and 50 percent Lean Beef futures and options contracts in July. There are five key factors that must be present in physical markets and futures contract specifications for futures contracts to become successful. The two l...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.6425/bushel, up $0.065 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.185/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.9775/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $316.5/short ton, up $3 from ye...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rallies Amid Weather Market; U.S. Revokes Iran’s Oil Licenses
What You Need to Know Today: The hot, dry weather forecast continues to drive strength in grain futures with corn and soybeans hitting another day of strong gains. Monday’s Crop Progress and Conditions data were in line with market expectations and showed relatively few concerns for the...
Choice Boxed Beef Price Falls to Yearly Low
Yesterday we wrote about the Q1 GDP numbers and the June employment reports in an article entitled Real GDP for Q1 Relying on AI Buildout, Held Back by Consumer Spending. That article mentioned that consumer spending had become a drag on GDP. Nonetheless, real GDP in Q1 was revised upward to 2...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.5775/bushel, up $0.1625 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.14/bushel, up $0.1425 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.9225/bushel, up $0.445 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $313.5/short ton, up $9.1 from...
Market Commentary: Weather Risk Materializes
What You Need to Know Today: This time of year, grain markets are often just one weather forecast away from a sharp rally, and today's hotter, drier outlook provided the catalyst for significant gains in corn and soybean futures. Livestock markets were relatively quiet by comparison, with most...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.415/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $5.9975/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.4775/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $304.4/short ton, down...
Market Commentary: Trading Cools Off After an Eventful Report Week
What You Need to Know Today: The June jobs report showed nonfarm payrolls increased by 57k jobs, less than the 115k jobs expected by economists surveyed by Dow Jones. The labor force participation rate dropped by 0.3 percent to 61.5 percent, the lowest since March 2021, and the lowest in 50 ye...
Livestock Round Up: Trump Declines USMCA Renewal and Pledges $500 Million to Beef Processors
Today was the deadline for announcing intentions regarding renewal of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA); the U.S. will not renew the USMCA, according to U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer. President Trump will instead pursue separate bilateral trade deals with Canada and Mexico las...
U.S. Exports to Cuba: It’s About Displacement
As Cuba's economic crisis has deepened, discussions about the country's eventual economic and political transition have reemerged. One question that inevitably follows is what opportunities might emerge for U.S. agricultural exports. So, here’s a brief review of those opportunities, but n...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.4225/bushel, up $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6/bushel, up $0.1075 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.4925/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $304.7/short ton, up $1.6 from ye...
Market Commentary: New Month, New Trade?
Key Market Insights July is here, and the grain markets already feel like they are shifting gears. With the June USDA reports now behind us, inflation is back in the conversation, and traders are once again turning their attention to three familiar summer drivers: demand, money flow, and weathe...
Poultry’s Cost Effectiveness and Versatility Fueling Consumption Growth
Key Takeaways: Poultry is the fastest-growing major animal protein, supported by lower production costs, affordability, and broad consumer appeal. Broilers are the most feed-efficient major livestock species, giving chicken a lasting cost advantage over beef and pork. Short production cycles a...
Ethanol and Biodiesel Margins
What You Need To Know Today: Ethanol margins continue to run well above year-ago and normal seasonal values, but have slipped in recent weeks on weaker DDGS and ethanol pricing. WPI’s models project a steady decrease in returns to ethanol production following the end of the summer...
Summary of Futures
Sep 26 Corn closed at $4.1675/bushel, up $0.065 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $5.8925/bushel, up $0.095 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.4375/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $304.7/short ton, up $0 from...
Market Commentary: Acreage, Stocks Surprises Send Corn, Wheat Higher; Fund Selling Likely to Subside
What You Need to Know Today: The surprises from the USDA’s Acreage report were a sharp reduction in winter wheat area from the March Prospective Plantings estimates and a larger-than-expected increase in corn area. The Grain Stocks report offered relatively few surprises, but quarterly d...
High Oleic Soybeans: Premium Demand Growing, But Adoption Remains Limited
Key Takeaways: High oleic soybeans produce oil containing 70–80 percent oleic acid, improving stability and eliminating the need for partial hydrogenation, which eliminates trans fats. There are three primary varieties of high oleic soybeans available commercially: Plenish, Vistive Gold,...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins deteriorated to -$261/head last week, down $19 from the prior week as weaker beef values (especially the Choice cutout) were offset by firmer fed cattle prices, which further compressed packer profits. The cutout slipped to $387/cwt while fed cattle prices held above $259/cw...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.02/bushel, down $0.1075 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $5.7975/bushel, down $0.1 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.39/bushel, down $0.1725 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $304.7/short ton, down $2.3...
Market Commentary: CBOT Downside Risks Rise as Funds Pad Bearish Bets, Corn Hits New Lows
What You Need to Know Today: The U.S. and Iran reportedly agreed to pause hostilities to allow vessels to transit the Strait of Hormuz this week (theoretically, at least). There were some rumors of a possible Chinese blockade against Taiwan. Analysts are looking for the largest U.S. 1 June cor...
Senate Farm Bill, Prop 12, and NWS Update
Proposition 12: The National Pork Producers Council (NPPC) has advocated for a fix to Proposition 12, the California animal welfare law, in the Senate farm bill. The House version of the farm bill included a fix, but the Senate bill, based on the discussion draft released by Chairman John Boozm...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Bearish sentiment continues to dominate CBOT trade, which last week resulted in the ag markets seeing another period consecutive net liquidation. Managed money traders liquidated another 84,000 contracts (42 percent) of their prior all-ags net long, extending the pullback from the largest net l...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.1275/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $5.8975/bushel, down $0.1175 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.5625/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $307/short ton, down $1...
Market Commentary: Acreage Report Takes Center Stage
What You Need to Know Today: Crude oil prices dropped sharply with traffic flowing through the Strait of Hormuz. There were reports that Iran was behind an attack on a cargo ship near the coast of Oman, which would be a violation of the memorandum of understanding between the U.S. and Iran. Pr...
Senate Farm Bill and $11 Billion Supplemental Appropriation Request
On Wednesday, the White House submitted a national security supplemental spending request for $87.6 billion. The majority of the request includes funding for the conflict in the Middle East, but there are agricultural provisions as well. The supplemental funding package includes more than $11 b...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.1475/bushel, up $0.0775 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.015/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.57/bushel, up $0.22 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $308.2/short ton, up $4.6 from ye...
Market Commentary: Focus Turns to New Crop Export Sales
What You Need to Know Today: The Personal Consumption Expenditures Index (PCE) rose 4.1 percent year-over-year, in line with expectations. Core PCE, which excludes volatile energy and food prices, rose 3.4 percent year-over-year, also in line with expectations. Bayer secured a favorable Suprem...
Livestock Round Up: Hogs and Pigs Report
USDA released its Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report for 1 June today. There were 73.7 million head, which was down slightly from 1 June 2025, as well as from 1 March 2026. The hog herd sits at the same level it was on 1 September 2025 and is the lowest for June since 2023. From 2016, after the re...
Mid-Year Cow-Calf Profitability Projections
Key Takeaways: Despite rising cost pressures — including the recent run-up in fuel and energy costs — U.S. cow-calf producers are facing another year of record-breaking revenues and net returns for 2026. Cost pressures — particularly non-feed variable costs — and...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.07/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $5.96/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.35/bushel, down $0.0675 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $303.6/short ton, up $0.7 fro...
Market Commentary: The Battle for Support
Key Market Insights Outside markets dominated today’s session. Crude oil traded below $70 per barrel, the U.S. dollar climbed to a 13-month high, and both gold and silver posted sharp declines as traders increased expectations for additional Federal Reserve rate hikes. At the same time, t...
Soybean Crush Margin Forecast
What You Need to Know Today… Crush margins are set to pull back after their recent rallies, though U.S. markets will fare better than others. U.S. demand-led strength in soyoil pricing is a key driver of U.S. margin profitability and will remain so into mid-autumn. Soymeal prices are th...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.0975/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $5.97/bushel, down $0.105 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.4175/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $302.9/short ton, up $3.1...
Market Commentary: Searching for Something New
What You Need to Know Today: There is a global rotation out of tech stocks right now amid profit-taking and expectations of interest rate hikes later this year. The White House said Iran will use its upcoming unsanctioned oil revenue to buy U.S. agricultural products, a claim that Iran later s...
Hogs and Pigs Report Preview
USDA will release its Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report on Thursday. Below are analysts’ estimates for the report. The biggest change since the 1 March report is the number of market hogs, which is expected to be up 1.1 percent from what was implied in March. The percent increase in hogs we...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins deteriorated to -$243/head last week, down $25 from the prior week as higher fed cattle prices more than offset a slight decline in the Choice cutout. The cutout eased to $390/cwt while fed cattle prices climbed to $260/cwt - just of all-time highs - extending the seasonal s...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Funds continue to hold broadly bearish sentiments resulted in the ag markets as last week marked another in a string of consecutive net liquidation periods. Managed money traders liquidated another 105,000 contracts (35 percent) of their prior all-ags net long, extending the pullback from the l...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.115/bushel, down $0.06 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.075/bushel, down $0.065 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.415/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $299.8/short ton, down $1.5...
Market Commentary: Mixed Macro Signals Keeping Grains Rangebound
What You Need to Know Today: The U.S. Treasury Department authorized the production, delivery, and sale of Iranian oil for 60 days after “productive talks” with Iran in Switzerland over the weekend. Chevron and Microsoft entered into a 20-year agreement to develop Project Kilby, a...
Cattle on Feed for June 2026
U.S. Cattle on Feed increased two percent in feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head to total 11.7 million on June 1, 2026. Placements in feedlots during May totaled 1.70 million head, 10 percent below 2025. Marketings of fed cattle during May totaled 1.55 million head, 12 perc...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.175/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.14/bushel, down $0.0725 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.4275/bushel, down $0.065 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $301.3/short ton, down $3...
Market Commentary: Selling Across Most Commodities After Hawkish Fed
What You Need to Know Today: Commodities were mostly lower across the board today after yesterday’s Federal Reserve meeting hinted at a potential interest rate hike later in 2026. The dollar index reached its highest level in over a year, and a strong dollar makes U.S. agricultural expor...
Livestock Round Up: Cattle on Feed
Tomorrow is the Juneteenth federal holiday, and the USDA, along with the rest of the federal government and the CME, will be closed, so the monthly Cattle on Feed report was released a day early. The total number of cattle on feed in feedlots with 1,000 head or more capacity on 1 June amounted...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.21/bushel, up $0.0725 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $6.1275/bushel, up $0.1675 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $11.32/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $304.8/short ton, up $0 from yest...
Market Commentary: Markets on Pins & Needles
Key Market Insights Geopolitical Limbo: Geopolitical risk remained a key driver across global commodity markets today. President Trump stated that the Iran memorandum of understanding is not yet final and warned that military action could resume if negotiations fail. Both sides continue w...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.1375/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $5.96/bushel, up $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $11.3/bushel, up $0.1075 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $304.8/short ton, up $2.8 from...
Market Commentary: China Buying Rumors Lift Soybeans; Cattle Rise on Beef Demand Hopes
What You Need to Know Today: American and Mexican officials met Tuesday and will meet again Wednesday for another round of trade talks, where ag and energy will be a key topic. Another round is scheduled for 20 July. Ag groups are urging President Trump to renew USMCA for another 16 years, but...
New World Screwworm Spreading North
Since the first U.S. case of New World Screwworm (NWS) was confirmed on 3 June, USDA has confirmed 12 cases. The latest was confirmed in a sheep on 12 June, with four additional cases confirmed in Texas on 11 June, three in cattle and one in a goat. The New Mexico case confirmed that the infect...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins deteriorated to -$218/head last week, down $20 from the prior week as a softer Choice cutout combined with slightly lower fed cattle prices. The cutout slipped to $391/cwt while fed cattle prices eased to $256/cwt, leaving packer profits under pressure. Margins remain deeply...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.155/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $5.8975/bushel, up $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $11.1925/bushel, up $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $302/short ton, up $0.7 from...
Market Commentary: CBOT Bounces on Iran Peace Deal Despite Bearish Long-Run Outlook
What You Need to Know Today: The U.S. and Iran agreed to a peace deal on Monday with the deal expected to be signed Friday in Switzerland. The memorandum signed is explicit that Iran will allow 60 days of toll-free transit for all traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, and President Trump annou...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The ongoing shift in ag commodity markets from bullish to bearish sentiments resulted in funds halving their all-ags net long last week, liquidating 330,000 contracts (52 percent), pulling back from the largest net long since at least 2016 forged just five weeks prior. This, combined with the w...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.1275/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $5.845/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $11.135/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $301.3/short ton, down $0.4...
Market Commentary: Quiet Trade Follows WASDE as Livestock Sector Faces Capacity Shifts
What You Need to Know Today: It was a quiet trading day across major agricultural commodities, with most contracts closing within 1 percent of the previous day's settlement. Trading volumes for corn and the soy complex were lighter than earlier in the week, as traders were positioning before a...
Policy Roundup: NWS, Section 122 Tariffs, and Dairy Producer Agenda
New World Screwworm Another day, another case of New World Screwworm. USDA has reported nine cases of New World Screwworm (NWS) in the U.S. Of the nine reported cases, eight are located across four counties in Texas—Edwards, Gillespie, La Salle, and Zavala. Of the eight cases in Texas, si...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.1175/bushel, down $0.0725 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $5.8675/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $11.15/bushel, down $0.08 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $301.7/short ton, down $0...
Market Commentary: June WASDE Light on Major Balance Sheet Changes
What You Need to Know Today: The June WASDE report was largely in line with expectations, with no major market-altering changes to the balance sheets. The Producer Price Index rose by 1.1 percent month-over-month in May 2026, exceeding economist estimates of a 0.7 percent rise. The annual head...
Livestock Round Up: NWS and USMCA Renegotiation
USDA’s National Veterinary Services confirmed three new cases of New World Screwworm, including one in a calf in La Salle County, Texas, a goat in Texas, and a dog in New Mexico. That brings the total to six cases. The border to Mexico is closed, with Mexico now implementing a prohibition...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.19/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $5.875/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $11.23/bushel, up $0.0925 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $301.9/short ton, up $0.8 from...
Market Commentary: The Return of Risk Premium
Key Market Insights Macro Markets: Inflation and Iran Reenter the Conversation Just when the grain trade had become comfortable focusing almost exclusively on weather, two major macro stories returned to the spotlight this morning: inflation and Iran. May CPI came in hotter than expected, with...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.195/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $5.8525/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $11.1375/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $301.1/short ton, down $1.6 fr...
Market Commentary: Pre-WASDE Stabilization Continues, But What Next?
What You Need to Know Today: Early Tuesday, the U.S. Energy Secretary said vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is rising in a “very meaningful way.” Tuesday afternoon, however, President Trump said Iran shot down a U.S. helicopter while it was patrolling the Strait of Hormu...
China Market Analysis
Miscellaneous Initial excitement over China’s pledges to buy American farm products has faded, as no purchases have immediately materialized. USDA Deputy Secretary Stephen Vaden said he is confident that China will meet its purchase commitments from the U.S., but market conditions and tra...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins were essentially unchanged at -$201/head last week as a modest increase in the Choice cutout was offset by steady fed cattle prices. The cutout edged higher to $392/cwt while fed cattle prices held near $257/cwt, leaving packer spreads largely unchanged. Margins remain deepl...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.1875/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $5.8325/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $11.1575/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $302.7/short ton, down $5...
Market Commentary: Technical Trade Drives CBOT, Sends Wheat Higher and Soybeans Lower
What You Need to Know Today: After a volatile weekend with Israel and Iran launching attacks at each other, peace seems to have returned to the region after President Trump called for both sides to cease hostilities. Soybean trade remains defensive as funds are liquidating longs amid no signs...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds reducing net long positions across most of the major ag futures contracts for the third straight week. Funds reduced the all-ags net long by 188,000 contracts (23 percent), pulling back from the largest net long since at least 2016 forged just four weeks...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.175/bushel, down $0.07 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $5.8/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $11.215/bushel, down $0.08 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $308.5/short ton, down $5.2 fr...
Market Commentary: Strong Jobs Report Lowers Risk Appetite
What You Need to Know Today: Non-farm payrolls rose by 172,000 jobs in May, above economist expectations of 80,000 jobs. With the job market strong, the Fed may consider raising interest rates to tame inflation. The strong jobs report was a catalyst for lower risk appetite across financial and...
Screwworm Updates; Executive Action on Import Enforcement; Bullish Jobs Report
Newworld screwworm Update The detection of New World screwworm (NWS) in Texas on Wednesday has been volatile for the cattle markets. The confirmation came on Wednesday evening, and the futures market opened sharply lower on Thursday. Market participants cited unknowns about cattle supplies and...
Market Commentary: New World Screwworm Appears in the U.S., Grains and Soy Sink
What You Need to Know Today: A case of New World Screwworm was detected in Texas, the first in the U.S. since 1966. With cases creeping closer to the U.S. border, it was only a matter of time. APHIS confirmed that larvae were detected in the umbilical area of a 3-week-old calf in Zavala County...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.245/bushel, down $0.07 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $5.8175/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $11.295/bushel, down $0.245 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $313.7/short ton, down $7.1...
Livestock Roundup: Screwworm in Texas Problem
The USDA’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) has confirmed a case of New World Screwworm (NWS) in Texas. This comes two days after a USDA press conference on New World Screwworm (NWS) where Secretary Rollins noted that a new press conference would be held every two...
Market Commentary: Risk Premium: Gone or Just Hiding?
Key Market Insights Macro: Dollar Up, Stocks Down The U.S. dollar moved higher today, creating another headwind for American exports. A stronger dollar makes U.S. commodities more expensive on the global market and can make it harder for exporters to compete against South American and Black Sea...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.315/bushel, down $0.09 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $5.8725/bushel, down $0.1575 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $11.54/bushel, down $0.1125 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $320.8/short ton, down $5...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.405/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $6.03/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $11.6525/bushel, down $0.155 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $326.2/short ton, down $0...
Beef Supply and Demand Issues
Beef prices hit record highs in April 2026, and that is in large part due to robust consumer demand. Despite economic pressures on consumers, there is not much evidence of consumers trading down from beef. Much of that was due to the COVID pandemic when consumers learned new ways to...
China Market Analysis
Corn The U.S. has yet to ship any corn to China, though last year’s sales were a paltry 32 KMT. Soybeans U.S. soybean export inspections for May rose above the previous year’s level with China as the target market. Citing reduced demand for soymeal, the Ministry of Agriculture...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins improved to -$200/head last week, up $57 from the prior week as the Choice cutout strengthened while fed cattle prices moved lower. The cutout rose to $392/cwt, continuing its seasonal climb into summer demand, while fed cattle prices eased to $257/cwt. The improvement helpe...
Market Commentary: Bears Control CBOT at Least Until Weather Market Forms
What You Need to Know Today: U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent said Friday that the U.S. has seized $1b of Iranian crypto assets. Iran’s IGGC says 15 merchant vessels, including 4 oil tankers, have passed through the Strait of Hormuz in the past 24 hours. Managed money traders...
Key Factors that Sparked Brazil’s Growth into an Agricultural Powerhouse
Key Takeaways: Acidity: Brazil’s agricultural production rose significantly after agricultural researchers were able to reduce soil acidity in the Cerrado region. Rotation: Farmers in the Center-West of Brazil, where the Cerrado is located, enjoy a soybean/corn double cropping advantage...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.44/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $6.0875/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $11.8075/bushel, down $0.06 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $326.5/short ton, down $3...
Poultry and Egg Markets Weighed Against HPAI
From the monthly cold storage report it is interesting to look at the poultry numbers and changes due to HPAI that has been plaguing the sector to some degree since 2022. Total chicken in cold storage was up 1.1 percent on the year and up 0.9 percent on the month. For eggs, the total inve...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds reducing net long positions across most of the major ag futures contracts for the third straight week. Funds reduced the all-ags net long 169,000 contracts (17 percent), pulling back from the largest net long since at least 2016 forged just three weeks pr...
Market Commentary: Risk-off tone hits grains and livestock
What You Need to Know Today: Agricultural commodities were mostly lower on the day, with red-hot soyoil a notable exception. Export sales were a bit underwhelming, particularly for corn with export sales down 52 percent week-over-week. The weakness in ag markets tracked crude oil weakness wit...
Commodity Policy Being Shaped by Unfolding Farm Crisis
With the war in Iran affecting fuel and fertilizer prices, higher tariffs, weak commodity prices, ag labor constraints, and other factors, farm bankruptcies are now at a 6-year high, a signal of growing stress. During the month of April, 62 Chapter 12 bankruptcies were filed, which is a 1...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.4675/bushel, down $0.09 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $6.105/bushel, down $0.135 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $11.8675/bushel, down $0.0775 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $329.8/short ton, down $4...
Market Commentary: Grains and oilseeds see strength on high PCE reading, Crude oil and macros remain topsy-turvy with U.S.-Iran headline risk
What You Need to Know Today: The U.S. struck Iranian military targets for the second time this week. During a cabinet meeting, President Trump said that the Strait of Hormuz is international waters and will be open to everybody, which appears to be wishful thinking. Control of the Strait...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.5575/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $6.24/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $11.945/bushel, up $0.0925 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $334.1/short ton, up $3.5 from...
Livestock Roundup: More Dairy Cow Slaughter Later This Year
A total of 79,000 cows has been added to the dairy herd since last December, which compares to 81,000 head added to the dairy herd over the same period in 2025. This similarity in herd expansion numbers in early 2025 and 2026 has kept dairy cow slaughter at the same level in each of the two yea...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins improved to -$257/head last week, up $39 from the prior week as the Choice cutout strengthened while fed cattle prices eased. The cutout rose to nearly $390/cwt, while fed cattle prices slipped to $260/cwt, allowing packer spreads to recover modestly from the prior week&rsqu...
Market Commentary: Trading Headlines, Pricing Risk
Key Market Insights Today was another reminder that this market is trading headlines first, facts second. Early optimism surrounding reports of a possible U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding helped pressure energy risk premium and kept the broader commodity space defensive. An hour later, how...
Producers' Share of Beef Value Up, Packer Margins Down
Key Takeaways: Cattle producers are currently capturing a greater proportion of total retail beef values amid tight cattle supplies. Packers are forced to make higher bids on cattle to keep operations running when supplies are tight, hurting packer margins. Sustained poor packer margins...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.525/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $6.225/bushel, down $0.13 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $11.8525/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $330.6/short ton, up $2 fro...
Market Commentary: CBOT Falls on Better Weather, Geopolitical Trade Dynamics
What You Need to Know Today: The U.S. conducted “self-defense strikes” in Iran and said the two sides are “close” to negotiating a ceasefire. “Close” is a relative term, however, and even if 95 percent of the terms are agreed to, the remaining 5 percent is l...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.575/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $6.355/bushel, down $0.1075 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $11.86/bushel, down $0.105 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $328.6/short ton, down $3...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds reducing net long positions across most of the major ag futures contracts for the second straight week. Funds reduced the all-ags net long by 4,300 contracts (0.4 percent), pulling back from the largest net long since at least 2016 forged just two weeks p...
China Market Analysis
Grain China’s General Administration of Customs says that grain imports were up 34.3 percent in April and an overall 18.1 percent for the January to April period. On the one hand, China produces more grain that it consumes and stockpiles large volumes. But Canadian grain analyst Mitch Mil...
Market Commentary: Small Gains as Corn/Soybeans Correct; Commodity Supercycle
What You Need to Know Today: The corn and soybean markets closed slightly higher in low-volume trade. The wheat market was mixed, with HRW continuing its downward trek on improved moisture. As expected, the bearish cattle on feed report drove down cattle prices and pulled hogs down with it. Mi...
U.S. Cattle on Feed on May 1, 2026
• U.S. Cattle on Feed Up in feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 11.6 million on May 1, 2026 - 2 percent above May 1, 2025. • Placements in feedlots during April totaled 1.70 million head - 6 percent above 2025. • Marketings of fed cattle during April totale...
Cattle on Feed Report: Neutral with Bearish Undertones
USDA’s monthly cattle on feed report was released today. The total number of cattle on feed in feedlots with 1,000 head or more capacity amounted to 11.6 million head, 102 percent of last year. Source: USDA, WPI Placements were up, but part of that is attributable to persistent drought c...