Who is Paying for U.S. Tariffs?
Over the course of 2025, the average tariff rate on U.S. imports increased from 2.6 percent at the beginning of the year to 13 percent by year-end. It then spiked in April and May, when tariffs on Chinese goods were raised by 125 percentage points, before being reversed by 115 percentage points...
Sovereignty and Competitiveness; USMCA Battle
Sovereignty and Competitiveness So-called food sovereignty has animated European politics for decades. Now there is AI sovereignty because English is annoying or a national security risk. Taxes, regulations, and fines are thrown at dominant foreign companies to the point that Bloomberg says som...
New World Screwworm Facility in the U.S.
In June 2025, Secretary Rollins announced a five-pronged plan to enhance USDA’s ability to detect, control, and eliminate NWS. As part of that announcement, she also shared plans to build a sterile NWS fly dispersal facility in South Texas. That announcement was made on 30 January, when U...
Argentina Beef Imports Outlook for 2026
At the 2026 Cattle Industry Convention, Secretary of Health and Human Services Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., urged producers to expand the beef herd in a “fireside chat” with National Cattlemen’s Beef Association (NCBA) President Buck Wehrbein. Kennedy, however, acknowledged that he...
New Trade Agreements
Just as Donald Trump’s dismantling of the world order is said to have motivated Europe’s conclusion of trade agreements with Mercosur and India, his trade agreements with India and Argentina are thought to have been motivated by Europe’s trade moves. A novel question: who is f...
Biofuels Policy: 45Z and E15
The Office of Management and Budget (OMB) has signed off on a rule for the 45Z tax credit. The credit was created by the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 during the Biden Administration for the production and sale of low-emission transportation fuels. It was updated and extended as part of the r...
Rock, Paper, Scissors
Markets still do not know how to react to President Trump’s announcement that he has completed a trade deal with India. U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer says the details are being papered, or written up, now. The deal has sparked a transatlantic war of words, with Brussels mocking...
Disingenuous Ag Letter
Leaders of the U.S. House and Senate Agriculture Committees received a letter (See Attached) yesterday from more than two dozen “former” private sector leaders of the American agriculture sector. Many previously represented farmers who have been staunch supporters of President Trump...
Policy Quick Hits
Appropriations. Last Friday, the Senate passed an amended appropriations bill for the remaining FY26 funding shortfall. The measure included a two-week continuing resolution for the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) budget, allowing more time for lawmakers to negotiate further Immigration a...
India’s Catbird Seat; Targeting Cuba; Good and Bad GMOs
India’s Catbird Seat China is a state-run economy with formidable output, utilizing abundant, lower-cost labor. India is a democracy with a massive low-cost labor pool and countless restrictions on imports. The EU and now the U.S. have completed very different trade agreements with India,...
Markets Not Government; Fueling and Building Cars; Middle Power Potential; EU Mimics China
Markets Not Government A common refrain from U.S. agriculture groups is that they prefer to get their income from the market than the government. Most of their income is derived from the market but it looks more romantic than real when one considers that government supplements determine the bre...
Congressional Letter on Buy-Up Coverage Rule
USDA’s Federal Crop Insurance Corporation (FCIC) published a new rule for crop insurance late last year, the Expanding Access to Risk Protection (EARP) rule that eliminates buy-up coverage for prevented planting policies. The rule proposes to: Increase premium subsidies from 5 to 10 crop...
Free Trade Style; 30,000 Feet; Technology Evolution; Taxing Food
Free Trade Style Brussels realizes the mistake it made when it included agriculture in its free trade negotiations with the Mercosur countries. Proponents bragged that it would remove most tariffs on EU–Latin American food trade and concurrently protect Europe’s geographic indicator...
E15 Dropped from Appropriations Bill
In a years-long, ongoing policy battle, a provision to secure E15 was dropped at the last minute from the appropriations bill. On paper, the path forward looks clear, as the oil refiners’ association is now onboard with E15; however, there are still many other smaller mechanisms in the le...
GI Chimera; Catch Bees with Honey; AI My Eye
GI Chimera The EU-Mercosur trade agreement has hit another stumbling block after the European Parliament asked the EU’s high court to first assess the text for its legality. Once that exercise is complete, Europe’s politicians promise plenty more hurdles to stymie agricultural impor...
Greenland: More Tariffs on 1 February
Greenland is heating up in the latest news, and not due to global warming, but rather rising security concerns. President Trump said of Greenland, the semi-autonomous territory of Denmark, that the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) has been telling Denmark for 20 years that “you h...
Government Funding Update: ICE Policy Risks
This past fall the U.S. government was shutdown for the longest period in history, with a temporary reprieve reached to re-open the government until the end of this month (30 January). Regardless of what happens, USDA was funded for the year under the compromise package, thus keeping the agency...
Trump’s Rhetoric; Ag Fear; Ag Trade Future
Trump’s Rhetoric The timing for release of the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision on President Trump’s tariffs has been speculated by the media rather than preordained by the Court itself. Today came and went without such an announcement. The fundamental issue for the Court is whet...
India Holds Out; USMCA Friction; AI and Ag
India Holds Out The most disappointed of U.S. trading partners has to be India. It has long held hope that it would succeed China as the largest foreign supplier to the American market. It is a natural foil to China, which has been politely designated by Washington as a strategic competitor and...
Policy Potpourri
Meat Can’t Be Beat: As if the protein craze needed any help, the Trump Administration’s new Dietary Guidelines for Americans urges consumers to “prioritize protein at every meal.” It also recommends full fat dairy while limiting sugar and highly processed foods. The emph...
Labeling Away Inflation
Canada initiated action more than two years ago to fight high grocery prices. The plan was hatched after then Prime Minister Justin Trudeau demanded a “comprehensive” approach to reducing grocery prices. His ultimatum was to “stabilize” food prices that were inflating at...
MAHA and 2026 USDA Regulations
USDA has announced several new rules and regulations to take effect in 2026, with several aligning with the new Make America Healthy Again (MAHA) goals. Dietary Guidelines for Americans: The 2025 dietary guidelines were supposed to be released by the end of 2025, but with the govern...
Formalizing Protectionism; Anti-GMO Replay; Selective Analysis
Formalizing Protectionism The EU’s 27 farm ministers are headed to Brussels on Wednesday ahead of the EU’s formal signing of a trade agreement with Mercosur on 12 January. France has already announced its support for the trade agreement with South America provided Brussels approves...
New Bridge Payments Restore Profitability
On 31 December the USDA announced the per acre payment rates for the Farmer Bridge Assistance (FBA) program for producers hit by the ongoing tariffs. Cotton and rice will receive the highest payments. On 15 December WPI estimated the upcoming payments, with cotton and rice at the top of t...
Who is Paying for U.S. Tariffs?
Over the course of 2025, the average tariff rate on U.S. imports increased from 2.6 percent at the beginning of the year to 13 percent by year-end. It then spiked in April and May, when tariffs on Chinese goods were raised by 125 percentage points, before being reversed by 115 percentage points...
Sovereignty and Competitiveness; USMCA Battle
Sovereignty and Competitiveness So-called food sovereignty has animated European politics for decades. Now there is AI sovereignty because English is annoying or a national security risk. Taxes, regulations, and fines are thrown at dominant foreign companies to the point that Bloomberg says som...
New World Screwworm Facility in the U.S.
In June 2025, Secretary Rollins announced a five-pronged plan to enhance USDA’s ability to detect, control, and eliminate NWS. As part of that announcement, she also shared plans to build a sterile NWS fly dispersal facility in South Texas. That announcement was made on 30 January, when U...
Argentina Beef Imports Outlook for 2026
At the 2026 Cattle Industry Convention, Secretary of Health and Human Services Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., urged producers to expand the beef herd in a “fireside chat” with National Cattlemen’s Beef Association (NCBA) President Buck Wehrbein. Kennedy, however, acknowledged that he...
New Trade Agreements
Just as Donald Trump’s dismantling of the world order is said to have motivated Europe’s conclusion of trade agreements with Mercosur and India, his trade agreements with India and Argentina are thought to have been motivated by Europe’s trade moves. A novel question: who is f...
Biofuels Policy: 45Z and E15
The Office of Management and Budget (OMB) has signed off on a rule for the 45Z tax credit. The credit was created by the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 during the Biden Administration for the production and sale of low-emission transportation fuels. It was updated and extended as part of the r...
Rock, Paper, Scissors
Markets still do not know how to react to President Trump’s announcement that he has completed a trade deal with India. U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer says the details are being papered, or written up, now. The deal has sparked a transatlantic war of words, with Brussels mocking...
Disingenuous Ag Letter
Leaders of the U.S. House and Senate Agriculture Committees received a letter (See Attached) yesterday from more than two dozen “former” private sector leaders of the American agriculture sector. Many previously represented farmers who have been staunch supporters of President Trump...
Policy Quick Hits
Appropriations. Last Friday, the Senate passed an amended appropriations bill for the remaining FY26 funding shortfall. The measure included a two-week continuing resolution for the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) budget, allowing more time for lawmakers to negotiate further Immigration a...
India’s Catbird Seat; Targeting Cuba; Good and Bad GMOs
India’s Catbird Seat China is a state-run economy with formidable output, utilizing abundant, lower-cost labor. India is a democracy with a massive low-cost labor pool and countless restrictions on imports. The EU and now the U.S. have completed very different trade agreements with India,...
Markets Not Government; Fueling and Building Cars; Middle Power Potential; EU Mimics China
Markets Not Government A common refrain from U.S. agriculture groups is that they prefer to get their income from the market than the government. Most of their income is derived from the market but it looks more romantic than real when one considers that government supplements determine the bre...
Congressional Letter on Buy-Up Coverage Rule
USDA’s Federal Crop Insurance Corporation (FCIC) published a new rule for crop insurance late last year, the Expanding Access to Risk Protection (EARP) rule that eliminates buy-up coverage for prevented planting policies. The rule proposes to: Increase premium subsidies from 5 to 10 crop...
Free Trade Style; 30,000 Feet; Technology Evolution; Taxing Food
Free Trade Style Brussels realizes the mistake it made when it included agriculture in its free trade negotiations with the Mercosur countries. Proponents bragged that it would remove most tariffs on EU–Latin American food trade and concurrently protect Europe’s geographic indicator...
E15 Dropped from Appropriations Bill
In a years-long, ongoing policy battle, a provision to secure E15 was dropped at the last minute from the appropriations bill. On paper, the path forward looks clear, as the oil refiners’ association is now onboard with E15; however, there are still many other smaller mechanisms in the le...
GI Chimera; Catch Bees with Honey; AI My Eye
GI Chimera The EU-Mercosur trade agreement has hit another stumbling block after the European Parliament asked the EU’s high court to first assess the text for its legality. Once that exercise is complete, Europe’s politicians promise plenty more hurdles to stymie agricultural impor...
Greenland: More Tariffs on 1 February
Greenland is heating up in the latest news, and not due to global warming, but rather rising security concerns. President Trump said of Greenland, the semi-autonomous territory of Denmark, that the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) has been telling Denmark for 20 years that “you h...
Government Funding Update: ICE Policy Risks
This past fall the U.S. government was shutdown for the longest period in history, with a temporary reprieve reached to re-open the government until the end of this month (30 January). Regardless of what happens, USDA was funded for the year under the compromise package, thus keeping the agency...
Trump’s Rhetoric; Ag Fear; Ag Trade Future
Trump’s Rhetoric The timing for release of the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision on President Trump’s tariffs has been speculated by the media rather than preordained by the Court itself. Today came and went without such an announcement. The fundamental issue for the Court is whet...
India Holds Out; USMCA Friction; AI and Ag
India Holds Out The most disappointed of U.S. trading partners has to be India. It has long held hope that it would succeed China as the largest foreign supplier to the American market. It is a natural foil to China, which has been politely designated by Washington as a strategic competitor and...
Policy Potpourri
Meat Can’t Be Beat: As if the protein craze needed any help, the Trump Administration’s new Dietary Guidelines for Americans urges consumers to “prioritize protein at every meal.” It also recommends full fat dairy while limiting sugar and highly processed foods. The emph...
Labeling Away Inflation
Canada initiated action more than two years ago to fight high grocery prices. The plan was hatched after then Prime Minister Justin Trudeau demanded a “comprehensive” approach to reducing grocery prices. His ultimatum was to “stabilize” food prices that were inflating at...
MAHA and 2026 USDA Regulations
USDA has announced several new rules and regulations to take effect in 2026, with several aligning with the new Make America Healthy Again (MAHA) goals. Dietary Guidelines for Americans: The 2025 dietary guidelines were supposed to be released by the end of 2025, but with the govern...
Formalizing Protectionism; Anti-GMO Replay; Selective Analysis
Formalizing Protectionism The EU’s 27 farm ministers are headed to Brussels on Wednesday ahead of the EU’s formal signing of a trade agreement with Mercosur on 12 January. France has already announced its support for the trade agreement with South America provided Brussels approves...
New Bridge Payments Restore Profitability
On 31 December the USDA announced the per acre payment rates for the Farmer Bridge Assistance (FBA) program for producers hit by the ongoing tariffs. Cotton and rice will receive the highest payments. On 15 December WPI estimated the upcoming payments, with cotton and rice at the top of t...