Recent Wheat Analysis
Market Commentary: Bears Control CBOT at Least Until Weather Market Forms
What You Need to Know Today: U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent said Friday that the U.S. has seized $1b of Iranian crypto assets. Iran’s IGGC says 15 merchant vessels, including 4 oil tankers, have passed through the Strait of Hormuz in the past 24 hours. Managed money traders...
WPI Crop Progress and Conditions App (Updated 1 June)
Developer's Note: Last year, users pointed out differences between the 5-year averages reported in this app and what USDA estimates in its weekly report. The difference exists because WPI calculates average based on the last 5 years of observations for the current week. In cases where obs...
Key Factors that Sparked Brazil’s Growth into an Agricultural Powerhouse
Key Takeaways: Acidity: Brazil’s agricultural production rose significantly after agricultural researchers were able to reduce soil acidity in the Cerrado region. Rotation: Farmers in the Center-West of Brazil, where the Cerrado is located, enjoy a soybean/corn double cropping advantage...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.44/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $6.0875/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $11.8075/bushel, down $0.06 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $326.5/short ton, down $3...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentina Export Tax Reform The Argentine government announced a new long-term schedule for reducing export taxes ("retenciones"), one of the main policy tools affecting agricultural profitability and farmer selling decisions. Export taxes are applied directly to export values and have historic...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds reducing net long positions across most of the major ag futures contracts for the third straight week. Funds reduced the all-ags net long 169,000 contracts (17 percent), pulling back from the largest net long since at least 2016 forged just three weeks pr...
Market Commentary: Risk-off tone hits grains and livestock
What You Need to Know Today: Agricultural commodities were mostly lower on the day, with red-hot soyoil a notable exception. Export sales were a bit underwhelming, particularly for corn with export sales down 52 percent week-over-week. The weakness in ag markets tracked crude oil weakness wit...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.4675/bushel, down $0.09 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $6.105/bushel, down $0.135 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $11.8675/bushel, down $0.0775 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $329.8/short ton, down $4...
Market Commentary: Grains and oilseeds see strength on high PCE reading, Crude oil and macros remain topsy-turvy with U.S.-Iran headline risk
What You Need to Know Today: The U.S. struck Iranian military targets for the second time this week. During a cabinet meeting, President Trump said that the Strait of Hormuz is international waters and will be open to everybody, which appears to be wishful thinking. Control of the Strait...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.5575/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $6.24/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $11.945/bushel, up $0.0925 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $334.1/short ton, up $3.5 from...
Market Commentary: Trading Headlines, Pricing Risk
Key Market Insights Today was another reminder that this market is trading headlines first, facts second. Early optimism surrounding reports of a possible U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding helped pressure energy risk premium and kept the broader commodity space defensive. An hour later, how...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.525/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $6.225/bushel, down $0.13 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $11.8525/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $330.6/short ton, up $2 fro...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grains Market, 18-22 May 2026 Last week, Russian grain markets remained bullish all over the European part of the country. This times, even the Asian regions saw prices recover to new levels. This rally occurred on the heels of zero export duties and a very strong RUB. The rally i...
Market Commentary: CBOT Falls on Better Weather, Geopolitical Trade Dynamics
What You Need to Know Today: The U.S. conducted “self-defense strikes” in Iran and said the two sides are “close” to negotiating a ceasefire. “Close” is a relative term, however, and even if 95 percent of the terms are agreed to, the remaining 5 percent is l...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.575/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $6.355/bushel, down $0.1075 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $11.86/bushel, down $0.105 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $328.6/short ton, down $3...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds reducing net long positions across most of the major ag futures contracts for the second straight week. Funds reduced the all-ags net long by 4,300 contracts (0.4 percent), pulling back from the largest net long since at least 2016 forged just two weeks p...
China Market Analysis
Grain China’s General Administration of Customs says that grain imports were up 34.3 percent in April and an overall 18.1 percent for the January to April period. On the one hand, China produces more grain that it consumes and stockpiles large volumes. But Canadian grain analyst Mitch Mil...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Eid Al-Adha will be celebrated in the Muslim world from 27 to 30 May 2026. The actual dates vary by country. Governments, banks and businesses will all be closed during this period. Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Egypt’s government reports tha...
Market Commentary: Small Gains as Corn/Soybeans Correct; Commodity Supercycle
What You Need to Know Today: The corn and soybean markets closed slightly higher in low-volume trade. The wheat market was mixed, with HRW continuing its downward trek on improved moisture. As expected, the bearish cattle on feed report drove down cattle prices and pulled hogs down with it. Mi...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.6325/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $6.4625/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $11.965/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $331.9/short ton, up $3.5 fr...
Market Commentary: A Market Trading War — Until It Wasn’t
Key Market Insights Macro markets delivered a full whipsaw today. Early in the session, crude oil had rallied back above $100/barrel as traders priced renewed concern over the U.S.-Iran standoff and potential supply risk through the Strait of Hormuz. That strength helped pull grains off their o...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.6225/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $6.475/bushel, down $0.13 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $11.9425/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $328.4/short ton, down $2...
Market Commentary: Grains Drift Lower on Improved Weather, Pre-Holiday Selling
What You Need to Know Today: Chinese officials indicated that China and the U.S. have agreed to cut 10 percent tariffs on imports. Chinese officials confirmed that a “guiding target” has been set for purchases of U.S. agricultural goods, but fell short of confirming that the U.S. r...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.6575/bushel, down $0.095 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $6.605/bushel, down $0.0675 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $11.9975/bushel, down $0.0975 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $330.9/short ton, down...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 11 - 15 May 2026 The Russian grains market showed a broadly bullish tone across the European part of the country during the week, while conditions in the Asian regions remained stable to slightly bearish. In the southern federal district, the key wheat export hub, prices...
Market Commentary: Markets Pause to Assess China Deal Amid Broadly Bullish Backdrop
What You Need to Know Today: Excitement over China’s agreement to purchase $17 billion of U.S. ag commodities subsided, as traders are cautious amid the yet-unspecified allocation of those purchases. Monday’s Crop Progress report did not significantly change the narrative for corn...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds reducing net long positions across most of the major ag futures contracts, reversing a three-week buying trend. Funds reduced the net long on all-ags by 92,000 contracts (8.4 percent), pulling back from the largest net long since at least 2016. The...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.7525/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $6.6725/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $12.095/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $332.3/short ton, down $2...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Iran is said to import about 20 million MT of grains and oilseeds annually through Persian Gulf ports, plus about 5.0 million MT on the Caspian Sea. Maize, soybeans, soymeal, and vegetable oil are all highly dependent on imports &...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.77/bushel, up $0.2125 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $6.645/bushel, up $0.2875 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $12.13/bushel, up $0.36 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $334.5/short ton, up $0.2 from yes...
Market Commentary: Assumptions, Uncertainty, Volatility
What You Need to Know Today: Markets opened double digits higher Sunday evening following the release of Chinese and American official summaries of bilateral discussions last week. They chose the more optimistic view of future Chinese purchases of American farm goods versus the more opaque inte...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Argentina’s corn harvest remains virtually stalled as producers continue prioritizing the soybean harvest, which has advanced rapidly in recent weeks. During the past week, corn harvest progress increased only two percentage points, while soybean harvest advanced more than 30 percent...
Market Commentary: Funds Come Off Their High Horse
With no bullish surprise out of Beijing this week and good weather taking over many global crop areas, funds spent the past couple of days selling off the peak positions they had built. CNN’s Live Updates blared, “No signs Trump and Xi resolved any thorny challenges.” By...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.5575/bushel, down $0.1175 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $6.3575/bushel, down $0.2225 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $11.77/bushel, down $0.155 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $334.3/short ton, up $1...
Wheat Prospects in China and India: Much Ado About Nothing?
Key Takeaways Weather conditions in China and India are deteriorating and threatening the wheat crops. Drought conditions in China are not without precedent, and modeling efforts suggest a modest 1.5 percent yield reduction vs. 2025. India’s wheat yields are forecast to fall 3 perc...
Market Commentary: Lack of China Specifics Sink Market
There was heavy volume exiting soybeans, which dragged down the broader market today. The lack of a specific Chinese buying commitment for soybeans undermined speculators who had placed bets on state-directed trade. But even the Chinese do not totally ignore market fundamentals. They may still...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.675/bushel, down $0.1325 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $6.58/bushel, down $0.175 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $11.925/bushel, down $0.365 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $332.5/short ton, down $6 f...
WASDE Corn - May 2026
USDA’s initial outlook for 2026/27 corn is that the U.S. remains the largest global exporter. The season-average farm price is projected to increase to $4.40 per bushel, up 25 cents. World corn imports are forecast to rise 1 percent...
WASDE Wheat - May 2026
USDA’s initial outlook for 2026/27 U.S. wheat is for a significant reduction in Hard Red Winter wheat: The expectation is for an 18 percent decline in ending stocks and a $1.50-bushel increase in the seasonal average farm price to $6.50 per bushel. Total global wheat production is e...
Market Commentary: War, Weather, and Waiting
Key Market Insights The broad market is locked in on this week’s Trump-Xi meeting in Beijing, but this is no longer just a trade summit. Increasingly, the meeting is becoming tied directly to Iran, energy security, and the growing global economic fallout from disruptions through the Strai...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 4 - 8 May 2026 During the week under review, the Russian grain market began showing more bullish sentiment despite the traditionally slow pace of business during the May holiday period. Russia celebrates several holidays during early May, with Victory Day on 9 May being t...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.8075/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $6.755/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $12.29/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $338.5/short ton, up $10.1 fr...
Market Commentary: USDA Slashes Wheat Outlook, Soy Balance Sheet Heavily Yield-Dependent
What You Need to Know Today: Iran says its definition of the Strait of Hormuz is now a “vast operation area” that stretches from Jask to Siri Island. The White House said President Trump did not sign a suspension of the TRQs on beef imports but is “finalizing potential...
Xi-Trump Summit Bottom Line
If the media headlines and Trump critics are to be believed, President Trump is headed to Beijing this Thursday in a weakened position. China is in control, it has the upper hand, and expectations are very low. These are the same critics that argue against overly simplistic zero-sum analyses in...
AP Quant: WASDE Wheat
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive compilation of relevant market factors, only those which we feel are of top priority. WPI will seek to expand the offerings in this report and w...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional News Egypt reiterated plans to achieve self-sufficiency in wheat supplies for the country’s subsidized bread program by 2028, although the target remains ambitious given current production and consumption dynamics. Egypt consumes approximately 21 MMT of wheat annually, with rough...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.8/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $6.79/bushel, up $0.45 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $12.2675/bushel, up $0.1375 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $328.4/short ton, up $3.6 from yes...
Market Commentary: Risks Abound During Headline Week
What You Need to Know Today: Energy markets are sharply higher after President Trump rejected a weekend Iranian counter proposal that did not include limits on the country’s nuclear program. The ceasefire looks increasingly fragile, with energy markets unlikely to return to normal soon...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
CORN Argentina’s corn harvest remains practically paralyzed, with weekly progress of less than 2 percent, in sharp contrast to soybeans, which advanced 16 percentage points. Rainfall across much of the agricultural region, with accumulations exceeding 100 mm and strong winds in southeaste...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.7525/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $6.34/bushel, up $0.15 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $12.13/bushel, up $0.05 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $324.8/short ton, up $5.1 from yester...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds adding to net long positions across the major ag futures contracts for the third straight week as weather concerns sustained risk-on buying. Funds added 97,000 contracts (9.8 percent) to their all-ags net long position last week, essentially reversing the...
Market Commentary: Equities Easily Outperform Ags
What You Need to Know Today Ag markets have placed bets on new soybean demand from China after next week’s Xi-Trump meeting. While the media predicts no major deals or agreements, Beijing sees Trump as transactional so it will “buy” some stability, and soybeans are relatively...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.7125/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $6.19/bushel, up $0.0675 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $12.08/bushel, up $0.1575 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $319.7/short ton, up $0.8 from...
Market Commentary: Prices Slide on a Hiatus in the Market
What You Need to Know Today Agricultural futures spent a third straight session mostly lower after partially recovering from morning lows. The war in Iran continues to drive energy markets with spillover into ags. After two days lower, crude oil turned higher after Iran demanded unlikely...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.675/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $6.1225/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $11.9225/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $318.9/short ton, up $1.6 f...
Market Commentary: War Premium Out. Weather Premium Next?
Key Market Insights Macros: Macro markets traded a sharp shift in tone Wednesday as traders aggressively pulled risk premium from the market on growing optimism surrounding a possible U.S.–Iran agreement. Crude oil briefly traded back below $89/barrel while the NASDAQ and S&P 500 push...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.685/bushel, down $0.115 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $6.1725/bushel, down $0.105 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $11.9475/bushel, down $0.1675 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $317.3/short ton, down $...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 27 April - 1 May 2026 The Russian grains market remained volatile but predominantly bullish during the week in review. However, ruble (RUB) movements continue to distort domestic price signals. With export duties at zero for three consecutive weeks and export prices relat...
Market Commentary: Grains Ease on Profit Taking but Bullish Fundamentals Remain
What You Need to Know Today: U.S. naval escorts through the Strait of Hormuz and renewed Iranian attacks on vessels and UAE infrastructure are sustaining geopolitical risk across energy and commodity markets Broad profit taking and weaker crude oil triggered a pullback across grains, signaling...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.8/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $6.2775/bushel, down $0.1325 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $12.115/bushel, down $0.1125 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $320.4/short ton, down $0...
Market Commentary: Bears Control CBOT at Least Until Weather Market Forms
What You Need to Know Today: U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent said Friday that the U.S. has seized $1b of Iranian crypto assets. Iran’s IGGC says 15 merchant vessels, including 4 oil tankers, have passed through the Strait of Hormuz in the past 24 hours. Managed money traders...
WPI Crop Progress and Conditions App (Updated 1 June)
Developer's Note: Last year, users pointed out differences between the 5-year averages reported in this app and what USDA estimates in its weekly report. The difference exists because WPI calculates average based on the last 5 years of observations for the current week. In cases where obs...
Key Factors that Sparked Brazil’s Growth into an Agricultural Powerhouse
Key Takeaways: Acidity: Brazil’s agricultural production rose significantly after agricultural researchers were able to reduce soil acidity in the Cerrado region. Rotation: Farmers in the Center-West of Brazil, where the Cerrado is located, enjoy a soybean/corn double cropping advantage...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.44/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $6.0875/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $11.8075/bushel, down $0.06 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $326.5/short ton, down $3...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentina Export Tax Reform The Argentine government announced a new long-term schedule for reducing export taxes ("retenciones"), one of the main policy tools affecting agricultural profitability and farmer selling decisions. Export taxes are applied directly to export values and have historic...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds reducing net long positions across most of the major ag futures contracts for the third straight week. Funds reduced the all-ags net long 169,000 contracts (17 percent), pulling back from the largest net long since at least 2016 forged just three weeks pr...
Market Commentary: Risk-off tone hits grains and livestock
What You Need to Know Today: Agricultural commodities were mostly lower on the day, with red-hot soyoil a notable exception. Export sales were a bit underwhelming, particularly for corn with export sales down 52 percent week-over-week. The weakness in ag markets tracked crude oil weakness wit...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.4675/bushel, down $0.09 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $6.105/bushel, down $0.135 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $11.8675/bushel, down $0.0775 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $329.8/short ton, down $4...
Market Commentary: Grains and oilseeds see strength on high PCE reading, Crude oil and macros remain topsy-turvy with U.S.-Iran headline risk
What You Need to Know Today: The U.S. struck Iranian military targets for the second time this week. During a cabinet meeting, President Trump said that the Strait of Hormuz is international waters and will be open to everybody, which appears to be wishful thinking. Control of the Strait...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.5575/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $6.24/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $11.945/bushel, up $0.0925 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $334.1/short ton, up $3.5 from...
Market Commentary: Trading Headlines, Pricing Risk
Key Market Insights Today was another reminder that this market is trading headlines first, facts second. Early optimism surrounding reports of a possible U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding helped pressure energy risk premium and kept the broader commodity space defensive. An hour later, how...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.525/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $6.225/bushel, down $0.13 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $11.8525/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $330.6/short ton, up $2 fro...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grains Market, 18-22 May 2026 Last week, Russian grain markets remained bullish all over the European part of the country. This times, even the Asian regions saw prices recover to new levels. This rally occurred on the heels of zero export duties and a very strong RUB. The rally i...
Market Commentary: CBOT Falls on Better Weather, Geopolitical Trade Dynamics
What You Need to Know Today: The U.S. conducted “self-defense strikes” in Iran and said the two sides are “close” to negotiating a ceasefire. “Close” is a relative term, however, and even if 95 percent of the terms are agreed to, the remaining 5 percent is l...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.575/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $6.355/bushel, down $0.1075 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $11.86/bushel, down $0.105 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $328.6/short ton, down $3...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds reducing net long positions across most of the major ag futures contracts for the second straight week. Funds reduced the all-ags net long by 4,300 contracts (0.4 percent), pulling back from the largest net long since at least 2016 forged just two weeks p...
China Market Analysis
Grain China’s General Administration of Customs says that grain imports were up 34.3 percent in April and an overall 18.1 percent for the January to April period. On the one hand, China produces more grain that it consumes and stockpiles large volumes. But Canadian grain analyst Mitch Mil...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Eid Al-Adha will be celebrated in the Muslim world from 27 to 30 May 2026. The actual dates vary by country. Governments, banks and businesses will all be closed during this period. Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Egypt’s government reports tha...
Market Commentary: Small Gains as Corn/Soybeans Correct; Commodity Supercycle
What You Need to Know Today: The corn and soybean markets closed slightly higher in low-volume trade. The wheat market was mixed, with HRW continuing its downward trek on improved moisture. As expected, the bearish cattle on feed report drove down cattle prices and pulled hogs down with it. Mi...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.6325/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $6.4625/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $11.965/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $331.9/short ton, up $3.5 fr...
Market Commentary: A Market Trading War — Until It Wasn’t
Key Market Insights Macro markets delivered a full whipsaw today. Early in the session, crude oil had rallied back above $100/barrel as traders priced renewed concern over the U.S.-Iran standoff and potential supply risk through the Strait of Hormuz. That strength helped pull grains off their o...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.6225/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $6.475/bushel, down $0.13 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $11.9425/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $328.4/short ton, down $2...
Market Commentary: Grains Drift Lower on Improved Weather, Pre-Holiday Selling
What You Need to Know Today: Chinese officials indicated that China and the U.S. have agreed to cut 10 percent tariffs on imports. Chinese officials confirmed that a “guiding target” has been set for purchases of U.S. agricultural goods, but fell short of confirming that the U.S. r...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.6575/bushel, down $0.095 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $6.605/bushel, down $0.0675 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $11.9975/bushel, down $0.0975 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $330.9/short ton, down...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 11 - 15 May 2026 The Russian grains market showed a broadly bullish tone across the European part of the country during the week, while conditions in the Asian regions remained stable to slightly bearish. In the southern federal district, the key wheat export hub, prices...
Market Commentary: Markets Pause to Assess China Deal Amid Broadly Bullish Backdrop
What You Need to Know Today: Excitement over China’s agreement to purchase $17 billion of U.S. ag commodities subsided, as traders are cautious amid the yet-unspecified allocation of those purchases. Monday’s Crop Progress report did not significantly change the narrative for corn...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds reducing net long positions across most of the major ag futures contracts, reversing a three-week buying trend. Funds reduced the net long on all-ags by 92,000 contracts (8.4 percent), pulling back from the largest net long since at least 2016. The...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.7525/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $6.6725/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $12.095/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $332.3/short ton, down $2...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Iran is said to import about 20 million MT of grains and oilseeds annually through Persian Gulf ports, plus about 5.0 million MT on the Caspian Sea. Maize, soybeans, soymeal, and vegetable oil are all highly dependent on imports &...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.77/bushel, up $0.2125 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $6.645/bushel, up $0.2875 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $12.13/bushel, up $0.36 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $334.5/short ton, up $0.2 from yes...
Market Commentary: Assumptions, Uncertainty, Volatility
What You Need to Know Today: Markets opened double digits higher Sunday evening following the release of Chinese and American official summaries of bilateral discussions last week. They chose the more optimistic view of future Chinese purchases of American farm goods versus the more opaque inte...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Argentina’s corn harvest remains virtually stalled as producers continue prioritizing the soybean harvest, which has advanced rapidly in recent weeks. During the past week, corn harvest progress increased only two percentage points, while soybean harvest advanced more than 30 percent...
Market Commentary: Funds Come Off Their High Horse
With no bullish surprise out of Beijing this week and good weather taking over many global crop areas, funds spent the past couple of days selling off the peak positions they had built. CNN’s Live Updates blared, “No signs Trump and Xi resolved any thorny challenges.” By...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.5575/bushel, down $0.1175 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $6.3575/bushel, down $0.2225 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $11.77/bushel, down $0.155 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $334.3/short ton, up $1...
Wheat Prospects in China and India: Much Ado About Nothing?
Key Takeaways Weather conditions in China and India are deteriorating and threatening the wheat crops. Drought conditions in China are not without precedent, and modeling efforts suggest a modest 1.5 percent yield reduction vs. 2025. India’s wheat yields are forecast to fall 3 perc...
Market Commentary: Lack of China Specifics Sink Market
There was heavy volume exiting soybeans, which dragged down the broader market today. The lack of a specific Chinese buying commitment for soybeans undermined speculators who had placed bets on state-directed trade. But even the Chinese do not totally ignore market fundamentals. They may still...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.675/bushel, down $0.1325 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $6.58/bushel, down $0.175 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $11.925/bushel, down $0.365 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $332.5/short ton, down $6 f...
WASDE Corn - May 2026
USDA’s initial outlook for 2026/27 corn is that the U.S. remains the largest global exporter. The season-average farm price is projected to increase to $4.40 per bushel, up 25 cents. World corn imports are forecast to rise 1 percent...
WASDE Wheat - May 2026
USDA’s initial outlook for 2026/27 U.S. wheat is for a significant reduction in Hard Red Winter wheat: The expectation is for an 18 percent decline in ending stocks and a $1.50-bushel increase in the seasonal average farm price to $6.50 per bushel. Total global wheat production is e...
Market Commentary: War, Weather, and Waiting
Key Market Insights The broad market is locked in on this week’s Trump-Xi meeting in Beijing, but this is no longer just a trade summit. Increasingly, the meeting is becoming tied directly to Iran, energy security, and the growing global economic fallout from disruptions through the Strai...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 4 - 8 May 2026 During the week under review, the Russian grain market began showing more bullish sentiment despite the traditionally slow pace of business during the May holiday period. Russia celebrates several holidays during early May, with Victory Day on 9 May being t...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.8075/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $6.755/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $12.29/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $338.5/short ton, up $10.1 fr...
Market Commentary: USDA Slashes Wheat Outlook, Soy Balance Sheet Heavily Yield-Dependent
What You Need to Know Today: Iran says its definition of the Strait of Hormuz is now a “vast operation area” that stretches from Jask to Siri Island. The White House said President Trump did not sign a suspension of the TRQs on beef imports but is “finalizing potential...
Xi-Trump Summit Bottom Line
If the media headlines and Trump critics are to be believed, President Trump is headed to Beijing this Thursday in a weakened position. China is in control, it has the upper hand, and expectations are very low. These are the same critics that argue against overly simplistic zero-sum analyses in...
AP Quant: WASDE Wheat
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive compilation of relevant market factors, only those which we feel are of top priority. WPI will seek to expand the offerings in this report and w...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional News Egypt reiterated plans to achieve self-sufficiency in wheat supplies for the country’s subsidized bread program by 2028, although the target remains ambitious given current production and consumption dynamics. Egypt consumes approximately 21 MMT of wheat annually, with rough...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.8/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $6.79/bushel, up $0.45 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $12.2675/bushel, up $0.1375 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $328.4/short ton, up $3.6 from yes...
Market Commentary: Risks Abound During Headline Week
What You Need to Know Today: Energy markets are sharply higher after President Trump rejected a weekend Iranian counter proposal that did not include limits on the country’s nuclear program. The ceasefire looks increasingly fragile, with energy markets unlikely to return to normal soon...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
CORN Argentina’s corn harvest remains practically paralyzed, with weekly progress of less than 2 percent, in sharp contrast to soybeans, which advanced 16 percentage points. Rainfall across much of the agricultural region, with accumulations exceeding 100 mm and strong winds in southeaste...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.7525/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $6.34/bushel, up $0.15 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $12.13/bushel, up $0.05 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $324.8/short ton, up $5.1 from yester...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds adding to net long positions across the major ag futures contracts for the third straight week as weather concerns sustained risk-on buying. Funds added 97,000 contracts (9.8 percent) to their all-ags net long position last week, essentially reversing the...
Market Commentary: Equities Easily Outperform Ags
What You Need to Know Today Ag markets have placed bets on new soybean demand from China after next week’s Xi-Trump meeting. While the media predicts no major deals or agreements, Beijing sees Trump as transactional so it will “buy” some stability, and soybeans are relatively...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.7125/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $6.19/bushel, up $0.0675 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $12.08/bushel, up $0.1575 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $319.7/short ton, up $0.8 from...
Market Commentary: Prices Slide on a Hiatus in the Market
What You Need to Know Today Agricultural futures spent a third straight session mostly lower after partially recovering from morning lows. The war in Iran continues to drive energy markets with spillover into ags. After two days lower, crude oil turned higher after Iran demanded unlikely...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.675/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $6.1225/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $11.9225/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $318.9/short ton, up $1.6 f...
Market Commentary: War Premium Out. Weather Premium Next?
Key Market Insights Macros: Macro markets traded a sharp shift in tone Wednesday as traders aggressively pulled risk premium from the market on growing optimism surrounding a possible U.S.–Iran agreement. Crude oil briefly traded back below $89/barrel while the NASDAQ and S&P 500 push...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.685/bushel, down $0.115 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $6.1725/bushel, down $0.105 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $11.9475/bushel, down $0.1675 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $317.3/short ton, down $...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 27 April - 1 May 2026 The Russian grains market remained volatile but predominantly bullish during the week in review. However, ruble (RUB) movements continue to distort domestic price signals. With export duties at zero for three consecutive weeks and export prices relat...
Market Commentary: Grains Ease on Profit Taking but Bullish Fundamentals Remain
What You Need to Know Today: U.S. naval escorts through the Strait of Hormuz and renewed Iranian attacks on vessels and UAE infrastructure are sustaining geopolitical risk across energy and commodity markets Broad profit taking and weaker crude oil triggered a pullback across grains, signaling...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.8/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $6.2775/bushel, down $0.1325 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $12.115/bushel, down $0.1125 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $320.4/short ton, down $0...