On Monday of this week, traders were met with limit-down losses in soybeans, plus double-digit losses in corn, soymeal, and wheat. For many, it didn’t feel good. The war in Iran presented surprises, including the postponement of a Trump-Xi meeting expected to sell some soybeans. Fundament...
Market Commentary: Pragmatic Escape Ahead of Weekend
Volatility has been the key word for commodity markets lately, especially the energy complex and anything loosely tied to it. The effective derivatives of the energy complex include, through the linkages of biodiesel, soyoil, and soybeans, and these markets have seen incredible rallies this yea...
As you probably guessed, the ongoing conflict in the Middle East continues to drive market sentiment for energy markets and tanker vessel rates. While there have been several developments in the region this week, the big picture factors are the same: the Strait of Hormuz is all but sealed to ve...
Tomorrow is Nowruz (spring equinox), the Persian New Year, but there will likely be no break from the war. There continued to be upward price pressure on grains and oilseeds, chasing the spike in fossil fuel prices. There may be ample fertilizer for Northern Hemisphere crops nearing planting ti...
The U.S. Treasury Department is (still!) working on the Section 45Z Clean Fuel Production Tax Credit. The broad legislative effort for the act was launched in President Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act and picked up with some significant adjustments in President Trump’s One Big...
USDA’s monthly cattle on feed report for March will be released tomorrow. Analysts’ pre-report consensus estimates are for the total inventory on feed to be 99.3 percent of last year. Those estimates imply an on-feed inventory of 11.5 million head. The pre-report estimates were spl...
Key Market Developments Macro: Reinforcing a Higher-for-Longer Environment Today’s inflation data reinforced what markets were already beginning to price in: a more persistent, “higher for longer” rate environment. U.S. producer prices came in above expectations, with headline...
Great Timing The workers’ union at the JBS meatpacking plant in Greeley, Colorado, is on strike. The union is demanding more pay for its members, of course, and they want the company to pay for gloves. Given the shortage of cattle, there is overcapacity in cattle slaughter, and JBS has be...