Overall economic data released earlier on Friday presented a mixed picture, and that was followed by a long-expected court ruling on Trump tariffs. This week had lots of geopolitical uncertainties, from a U.S. military buildup in the Middle East to peace talks between Russia and Ukraine going s...
Market Commentary: Outside Market Noise, but Fundamentals Prevail
The USDA’s annual Agricultural Outlook Forum (AOF) featured the agency’s first look at the 2026/27 balance sheet for the major U.S. crops and livestock products. For corn, wheat, and soybeans, this year’s numbers were in line with expectations and did not spark much reaction f...
Dry bulk ocean freight markets are once again seeing diverging trends across the Atlantic and Pacific basins. Key to this divergence is the Chinese Lunar New Year holiday, which started last weekend and will last through 3 March. That is putting much of Asia on hold for trading and vessel inqui...
USDA issued its major S&D crop forecast for the upcoming crop season at its annual Outlook Conference. Although generally bullish for corn and bearish for soybeans, with a modest shift in plantings from beans to corn, the report had minimal market impact except perhaps in long-dated new cro...
USDA’s monthly cattle on feed report for February will be released tomorrow. Analysts’ pre-report consensus estimates are for the total inventory on feed to be 98.4 percent of a year ago. Those estimates imply an on-feed inventory of 11.53 million head. The total inventory on feed...
Beef complex margins weakened further in the week ending 14 February 2026, with estimated beef packer net margins sliding to -$270.22/hd (down $22.78/hd week over week) as higher cattle costs continued to outrun product values. The Choice cutout edged up to $365.30/cwt, but fed cattle prices mo...
Key Market Developments Today’s theme was geopolitics and economics. Tension between the United States and Iran escalated despite reports of an “understanding” reached during Tuesday’s nuclear discussions. Iran temporarily shut parts of the Strait of Hormuz during milita...
Tariff Impacts Calculating the impacts of President Trump’s tariffs is heavy fodder for economists. Many made predictions about their impacts long before the rubber even met the road. Predictions of a tariff-caused recession have been debunked, and there is little impact on inflation. Now...