As fear of the coronavirus causes money to rush out of equities and commodities, why are bulk shipping rates rising? The transportation segment is complex. Airlines are forecast to take a $100 billion dollar hit this year as their traffic drops, but trucking keeps trucking along. The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) measuring bulk cargo shipping rates hit a peak in September 2019 and then slid lower, until now. The price of oil, a key ingredient in global shipping, is at a 12-month low. There is no competition from cruise ships for bunker fuel because they are being idled. Yet after hitting a low of 411 on 10 February, the BDI has been rising, hitting 599 yesterday. The industry says it is because of improved supply/demand balances. Iron ore...
What You Need to Know Today: Agricultural commodities were mostly lower on the day, with red-hot soyoil a notable exception. Export sales were a bit underwhelming, particularly for corn with export sales down 52 percent week-over-week. The weakness in ag markets tracked crude oil weakness wit...
With the war in Iran affecting fuel and fertilizer prices, higher tariffs, weak commodity prices, ag labor constraints, and other factors, farm bankruptcies are now at a 6-year high, a signal of growing stress. During the month of April, 62 Chapter 12 bankruptcies were filed, which is a 1...
Food Inflation The Open Markets Institute, which is notably funded by several “anonymous” donors and liberal foundations, obtained a guest editorial in the New York Times in which they blame agribusiness concentration for higher grocery prices. This is their schtick and it is politi...
From WPI Consulting
Forecasting developments in production agriculture
On behalf of a private U.S. agricultural technology provider, WPI’s team generated an econometric model to forecast the movement of concentrated corn production north and west from the traditional U.S. Corn Belt. WPI’s model has subsequently provided quantitative support to a multi-million-dollar investment into short-season corn variety development. WPI’s methodology included a series of interviews with regional grain elevators and seed consultants. Emphasizing outreach and communication with stakeholders who possess intimate sectoral knowledge – on-the-ground insights – is a regular component of WPI’s methodologies, made possible by WPI’s ever-growing network of industry contacts.