World Perspectives

Commodity Trading Earns

Last year, the value of oil, energy, and agricultural commodities all fell. This caused reduced earnings at some large trading firms but, according to McKinsey, overall earnings in the sector rise at an average 1.5 percent per year and reached $104 billion last year. The value was sufficient to entice new players (banks, hedge funds, tech focused operators) into the market. The question for all firms, including from the hotseat of an AI operation, is always the same - where is there arbitrage opportunity? That is a dirty word (opaque, unearned) for those that do not understand how this reduces volatility. However, McKinsey points out that the threat of volatility is increasing due to rising geopolitical risks (Ukraine-Russia, China, Israel...

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From WPI Consulting

Forecasting developments in production agriculture

On behalf of a private U.S. agricultural technology provider, WPI’s team generated an econometric model to forecast the movement of concentrated corn production north and west from the traditional U.S. Corn Belt. WPI’s model has subsequently provided quantitative support to a multi-million-dollar investment into short-season corn variety development. WPI’s methodology included a series of interviews with regional grain elevators and seed consultants. Emphasizing outreach and communication with stakeholders who possess intimate sectoral knowledge – on-the-ground insights – is a regular component of WPI’s methodologies, made possible by WPI’s ever-growing network of industry contacts.

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