Key Takeaways:

Corn and soybean meal markets are tightening together for the first time in more than a year, driven by lower U.S. yield expectations and continued Chinese soybean demand. A strong El Niño is replacing last year’s La Niña, shifting crop risk across the Americas through a slower U.S. harvest, weaker Brazilian corn prospects, and a stronger Argentine soybean outlook. U.S. dairy margins are narrowing as global feed costs rise, with DMC payments expected from August through December 2026 and the program’s lagged feed-cost formula likely understating near-term pressure. The production-cost gap of more than $20/cwt between the smallest and largest U.S. dairy farms is likely to widen because larger operati...