USDA publishes its long term 10-year outlook every year in February at the annual Ag Outlook Conference – the last was February 2022. The outlook is initially based on the October WASDE report, and it is then updated until released in February. Yesterday, the U.S. portion (i.e., no global forecasts) of the early release was issued. This preliminary outlook is based on modeling, but bakes in a few key assumptions based on where things are at the end of the crop year.
The forecast assumes much higher yields at 181.5 bushels per acre (bpa) in MY 2023/24, compared to 2022/23 yield of 171.9 bpa – about a 6 percent jump. That would boost the ending stocks to use back into double digits at 11.6 percent. The long-term trend for yield...
What You Need to Know Today: The hot, dry weather forecast continues to drive strength in grain futures with corn and soybeans hitting another day of strong gains. Monday’s Crop Progress and Conditions data were in line with market expectations and showed relatively few concerns for the...
Yesterday we wrote about the Q1 GDP numbers and the June employment reports in an article entitled Real GDP for Q1 Relying on AI Buildout, Held Back by Consumer Spending. That article mentioned that consumer spending had become a drag on GDP. Nonetheless, real GDP in Q1 was revised upward to 2...
Key Takeaways: The Middle East and North Africa's arid climate and limited water resources have created a structural dependence on imported wheat. Government wheat tenders in major importing countries serve as important benchmarks for global trade, providing insight into exporter competitivene...
