According to Jeffrey Hirsch at the Stock Trader’s Almanac, there is a Presidential Election Cycle Theory that says stocks will move in certain ways affected by the four-year term of a presidency. If the theory applied to commodities, the third year of a presidency is when markets are most robust, whereas they tend to suffer their worst maladies in the first year and during mid-term elections. During an election as in 2020, the market is “mediocre” on average. The market is held somewhat higher in an election year due to the power of the presidency’s bully pulpit. This theory may not hold for commodities, at least based on the past 14 election cycles (see graph below). Since 1963, the third year of the president bein...

TAGS – North America, Macroeconomics