World Perspectives

Election Year Commodity Prices

According to Jeffrey Hirsch at the Stock Trader’s Almanac, there is a Presidential Election Cycle Theory that says stocks will move in certain ways affected by the four-year term of a presidency. If the theory applied to commodities, the third year of a presidency is when markets are most robust, whereas they tend to suffer their worst maladies in the first year and during mid-term elections. During an election as in 2020, the market is “mediocre” on average. The market is held somewhat higher in an election year due to the power of the presidency’s bully pulpit. This theory may not hold for commodities, at least based on the past 14 election cycles (see graph below). Since 1963, the third year of the president bein...

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CFTC COT Report Analysis

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feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Export Sales

Export Sales and Shipments data for the week ending Nov 27, 2025...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

CFTC COT Report Analysis

The following tables/charts reflect the CFTC's latest data release, which covers traders' positions through 2 December. The data are, obviously, delayed due to the 40-day 2025 U.S. government shutdown. While the positions below likely have little influence on today's markets or fund positioning...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Corn Bounces while Wheat, Soybeans Fall Further

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Europe; Greening; AI; Ice Cream; UPFs; Algorithms

Europe Pivot Point EU leaders will hold a very pivotal meeting tomorrow covering a range of issues including the use of Russian assets and security guarantees for Ukraine, and a trade agreement with Mercosur. More importantly, their reputations are at risk. President Trump predicts Europe&rsquo...

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From WPI Consulting

Forecasting developments in production agriculture

On behalf of a private U.S. agricultural technology provider, WPI’s team generated an econometric model to forecast the movement of concentrated corn production north and west from the traditional U.S. Corn Belt. WPI’s model has subsequently provided quantitative support to a multi-million-dollar investment into short-season corn variety development. WPI’s methodology included a series of interviews with regional grain elevators and seed consultants. Emphasizing outreach and communication with stakeholders who possess intimate sectoral knowledge – on-the-ground insights – is a regular component of WPI’s methodologies, made possible by WPI’s ever-growing network of industry contacts.

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