The latest EIA data showed some interesting anomalies in the ethanol industry, changes that will have a material impact on the industry’s profits and corn consumption for 2025/26 and early 2026/27. The EIA reported that ethanol production fell 4.8 percent for the week ending 10 July, a larger than expected decrease that marked the fourth week of declines out of the past five weeks. More interestingly, the weekly output fell below the 5-year average for just the second time in the 2025/26 corn marketing year. Despite lower ethanol production, ethanol stocks continue to run near year-ago volumes and rose 1.9 percent last week, in line with their usual post-July 4th holiday bump. More interesting again is the continued declin...
From WPI Consulting
Forecasting developments in production agriculture
On behalf of a private U.S. agricultural technology provider, WPI’s team generated an econometric model to forecast the movement of concentrated corn production north and west from the traditional U.S. Corn Belt. WPI’s model has subsequently provided quantitative support to a multi-million-dollar investment into short-season corn variety development. WPI’s methodology included a series of interviews with regional grain elevators and seed consultants. Emphasizing outreach and communication with stakeholders who possess intimate sectoral knowledge – on-the-ground insights – is a regular component of WPI’s methodologies, made possible by WPI’s ever-growing network of industry contacts.