World Perspectives

Food’s Fools Gold

Correlation is not causation, but many nations focus their investments on agriculture due to idealizing food self-sufficiency. That can come at the expense of other investments that could prove more valuable.  Egypt has made a concentrated effort to improve its food self-sufficiency but had to reduce its target for 2025 from 65 percent locally grown wheat to meeting 51 percent of requirements domestically. The country has made progress, largely via expanded land use, irrigation, and improved genetics. But it pays domestic farmers substantially more for their wheat than it would cost to import the grain. At the same time, the country’s consumption subsidies for bread and flour drives wheat demand ever higher. On its face, Egypt has impr...

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wheat

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From WPI Consulting

Forecasting developments in production agriculture

On behalf of a private U.S. agricultural technology provider, WPI’s team generated an econometric model to forecast the movement of concentrated corn production north and west from the traditional U.S. Corn Belt. WPI’s model has subsequently provided quantitative support to a multi-million-dollar investment into short-season corn variety development. WPI’s methodology included a series of interviews with regional grain elevators and seed consultants. Emphasizing outreach and communication with stakeholders who possess intimate sectoral knowledge – on-the-ground insights – is a regular component of WPI’s methodologies, made possible by WPI’s ever-growing network of industry contacts.

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