World Perspectives
feed-grains wheat

Hazards of Forecasting

Each year the OECD and FAO jointly issue a 10-year outlook for global agricultural production, but its record for accuracy presents caution to all forecasters. The market’s reaction to changes in supply and demand are far fickler than the models can assume. Their ten-year forecast in 2008 was produced at the height of the food shortage scare. Low prices during the first part of this century had caused surplus wheat stocks to fall 30 percent and maize carryover to drop 44 percent. Underestimating the ability of agricultural production to rebound, headlines blared that it could not keep up with predicted population growth and people would grow hungry. The OECD FAO baseline report asked, “Can agriculture meet the growing demand fo...

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Venting Hypocrisy; Xi – Trump Meeting; Say Cheese Please

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From WPI Consulting

Illuminating the value of technical research

On behalf of a commodity producer organization, WPI evaluated the outputs from a project that featured a $5 million investment into technical research over multiple years. WPI’s team captured the results of this extensive effort and synthesized them for presentation to the organization’s governing board; among the findings uncovered and presented for the first time was the development of genomic traits proven, via rigorous testing, to provide crop yield advantages of 50 percent or more to U.S. farmers in times of drought. Capturing measurable results from long-term efforts can be challenging. Educating clients on the dynamics of success measurement when quantifiable results are not readily available requires deep client-consultant collaboration and an ability to consider both near- and long-term client aspirations with market/policy dynamics – attributes that WPI brings to every consulting engagement.

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