World Perspectives
livestock

Hog Price “Hockey Stick;” China’s Poultry Imports

Hog Price “Hockey Stick” The impacts of African swine fever (ASF) in China are being felt in the hog market. Last week hog prices rebounded to their three-year average, charting out a classic “hockey stick.” The nearby futures contract closed yesterday at $81.325/cwt, up from the contract low of $52.5/cwt in mid-February. Given the volatile nature of the U.S.-China trade situation, the big question will be how long the highs will last. The bullish turn in the hog market has had a dramatic effect in just two weeks, pulling up production margins. As of 1 March, the Chinese hog and sow herds were estimated to be down 17 percent and 19 percent, respectively. China slaughters about 700 million head per year, so a 1...

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Competing Manufacturing Data

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Recent Market Volatility Increases Futures Mispricing

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From WPI Consulting

Forecasting developments in production agriculture

On behalf of a private U.S. agricultural technology provider, WPI’s team generated an econometric model to forecast the movement of concentrated corn production north and west from the traditional U.S. Corn Belt. WPI’s model has subsequently provided quantitative support to a multi-million-dollar investment into short-season corn variety development. WPI’s methodology included a series of interviews with regional grain elevators and seed consultants. Emphasizing outreach and communication with stakeholders who possess intimate sectoral knowledge – on-the-ground insights – is a regular component of WPI’s methodologies, made possible by WPI’s ever-growing network of industry contacts.

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