World Perspectives

Inflation, Spending, and the U.S. Economic Outlook

Last week, WPI’s Dave Juday noted that while the all-items CPI inflation measure has fallen significantly from its June 2022 peak, other metrics show far more persistent inflation. The “core CPI” (which ignores energy and food inflation) that the Fed considers when making interest rate decisions was up 4.8 percent from the prior year. Food inflation remained historically high last month and was up 5.75 percent from June 2022. This article will take a deeper look at food inflation and explore other factors relevant to consumer behavior and the macroeconomic outlook. 

Food Inflation and Sales One reason for the stubbornly high food inflation rate is high agricultural commodity prices as recent retreats in grain and...

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livestock

Livestock Industry Margins

Beef packer margins reversed sharply to -$17/head from $120/head the prior week, as rising fed cattle prices more than offset a modest decline in the Choice cutout. Fed cattle prices increased $12.92/cwt from the prior week while the cutout slipped $3.24/cwt, compressing gross margins and pushi...

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feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Summary of Futures

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From WPI Consulting

Forecasting developments in production agriculture

On behalf of a private U.S. agricultural technology provider, WPI’s team generated an econometric model to forecast the movement of concentrated corn production north and west from the traditional U.S. Corn Belt. WPI’s model has subsequently provided quantitative support to a multi-million-dollar investment into short-season corn variety development. WPI’s methodology included a series of interviews with regional grain elevators and seed consultants. Emphasizing outreach and communication with stakeholders who possess intimate sectoral knowledge – on-the-ground insights – is a regular component of WPI’s methodologies, made possible by WPI’s ever-growing network of industry contacts.

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