According to yesterday’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) release from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), overall consumer prices were unchanged in July, that does not indicate that inflation is over. On a year-to-year basis, inflation in July was up 8.5 percent from July 2021. Excluding energy and food, the “core” prices that the Fed monitors increased 0.3 percent in July, for an annualized year-ago increase of 5.9 percent. Below shows the overall CPI inflation rate year-over-year for each month of 2022 compared to the last five years’ annual rate of inflation.

Essentially the June spike in energy prices was eliminated from the monthly change in CPI. Energy prices, which dropped 4.6 percent in July (after a 7.5 perc...