Yesterday’s WASDE increased its beef production forecast slightly over January’s estimate based on Q1 slaughter, but for Q2 the slaughter rate will drop based on lower Q4 2022 placements on feed, and lighter slaughter weights. That corresponds to what WPI wrote on 17 November 2022: Placements in October are forecast to be 96 percent of last year. If these two forecasts are accurate, the 1 November inventory on feed would be the lowest in four years and placements would be the lowest of any October since 2012. That is significant since October placements are a big portion of the finished cattle leading into Q2 2023. With many lighter weight cattle pulled forward this year because of drought, it will be notable to look at the pl...
What You Need to Know Today: The hot, dry weather forecast continues to drive strength in grain futures with corn and soybeans hitting another day of strong gains. Monday’s Crop Progress and Conditions data were in line with market expectations and showed relatively few concerns for the...
Yesterday we wrote about the Q1 GDP numbers and the June employment reports in an article entitled Real GDP for Q1 Relying on AI Buildout, Held Back by Consumer Spending. That article mentioned that consumer spending had become a drag on GDP. Nonetheless, real GDP in Q1 was revised upward to 2...
Key Takeaways: The Middle East and North Africa's arid climate and limited water resources have created a structural dependence on imported wheat. Government wheat tenders in major importing countries serve as important benchmarks for global trade, providing insight into exporter competitivene...
From WPI Consulting
Forecasting developments in production agriculture
On behalf of a private U.S. agricultural technology provider, WPI’s team generated an econometric model to forecast the movement of concentrated corn production north and west from the traditional U.S. Corn Belt. WPI’s model has subsequently provided quantitative support to a multi-million-dollar investment into short-season corn variety development. WPI’s methodology included a series of interviews with regional grain elevators and seed consultants. Emphasizing outreach and communication with stakeholders who possess intimate sectoral knowledge – on-the-ground insights – is a regular component of WPI’s methodologies, made possible by WPI’s ever-growing network of industry contacts.