Note: WPI chief market analyst Matt Herrington is away on travel until 20 June. New crop futures traded higher again today as there is still no improvement in a weather pattern that compelled USDA to drop the share of corn and soybeans rated Good/Excellent to lows not seen in four years and ten years respectively. It should be noted that while the corn crop four years ago was smaller, the soybean crop a decade ago turned out fine. Forecasters are increasingly highlighting the adverse impacts of the new El Nino weather pattern. It will increase food costs. However, it cannot be blamed for U.S. grocery prices jumping 5.8 percent in May, well ahead of El Nino. Instead, food price pressures should be to the downside as Braz...
What You Need to Know Today: The hot, dry weather forecast continues to drive strength in grain futures with corn and soybeans hitting another day of strong gains. Monday’s Crop Progress and Conditions data were in line with market expectations and showed relatively few concerns for the...
Yesterday we wrote about the Q1 GDP numbers and the June employment reports in an article entitled Real GDP for Q1 Relying on AI Buildout, Held Back by Consumer Spending. That article mentioned that consumer spending had become a drag on GDP. Nonetheless, real GDP in Q1 was revised upward to 2...
Key Takeaways: The Middle East and North Africa's arid climate and limited water resources have created a structural dependence on imported wheat. Government wheat tenders in major importing countries serve as important benchmarks for global trade, providing insight into exporter competitivene...
From WPI Consulting
Forecasting developments in production agriculture
On behalf of a private U.S. agricultural technology provider, WPI’s team generated an econometric model to forecast the movement of concentrated corn production north and west from the traditional U.S. Corn Belt. WPI’s model has subsequently provided quantitative support to a multi-million-dollar investment into short-season corn variety development. WPI’s methodology included a series of interviews with regional grain elevators and seed consultants. Emphasizing outreach and communication with stakeholders who possess intimate sectoral knowledge – on-the-ground insights – is a regular component of WPI’s methodologies, made possible by WPI’s ever-growing network of industry contacts.