Surprises are usually left for the military but today USDA pulled off the unthinkable, shocking the market to the bullish side. The August WASDE report reflected the global crop situation the way it should, but not the way the trade expected. The table below shows just some of the ways the market was caught flat-footed. 

The WASDE made significant yield cuts (20+ percent) in the western half of the production area where heat and dryness has been relentless, and recognized increases (20+ percent) in the eastern part but overall, not enough to prevent significant declines. The market had been loitering within narrow ranges for several days looking for direction, and it received a full lesson plan today.  Managed funds that had re...