World Perspectives

No Government Shutdown for at Least 45 Days

The federal government is open this morning due to some unexpected and quick moving maneuvers on Saturday, the last day of FY 2023. A 45-day short-term continuing resolution (CR) was passed by the House and the Senate; that gives both chambers more time to work out a full year funding plan for FY 2024. The CR originated in the House on Saturday 30 September, and passed 335-91; it passed in the Senate about three hours before the fiscal year expired, by a vote of 88-9. A few observations:  The CR provides funding for the next 45 days, which ends the Friday before Thanksgiving. By then, Congress will have to pass the full appropriations for FY 2024, or another short-term extension. Recall that the 2018-2019, a government shutdown o...

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Trump Announces Farm Bailout

President Trump announced a total of $12 billion in funding for an ag agriculture bailout program yesterday. The funds will come from tariff revenue collected from the new tariffs.   The package includes $11 billion in one-time payments to crop farmers through a new USDA program, the...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

CFTC COT Report Analysis

The following tables/charts reflect the CFTC's latest data release, which covers traders' positions through 21 October. The data are, obviously, delayed due to the 40-day 2025 U.S. government shutdown. While the positions below likely have little influence on today's markets or fund positioning...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Technical Factors, SA Weather and Exports Sink CBOT

The CBOT was mostly lower to start the week with traders reluctant to add bullish risk ahead of the USDA’s WASDE report on Tuesday. Too, technical weakness rapidly enveloping the soy complex spooked traders and prompted a more cautious approach. Favorable weather in Brazil, slow soybean s...

Trump Announces Farm Bailout

President Trump announced a total of $12 billion in funding for an ag agriculture bailout program yesterday. The funds will come from tariff revenue collected from the new tariffs.   The package includes $11 billion in one-time payments to crop farmers through a new USDA program, the...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

CFTC COT Report Analysis

The following tables/charts reflect the CFTC's latest data release, which covers traders' positions through 21 October. The data are, obviously, delayed due to the 40-day 2025 U.S. government shutdown. While the positions below likely have little influence on today's markets or fund positioning...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Technical Factors, SA Weather and Exports Sink CBOT

The CBOT was mostly lower to start the week with traders reluctant to add bullish risk ahead of the USDA’s WASDE report on Tuesday. Too, technical weakness rapidly enveloping the soy complex spooked traders and prompted a more cautious approach. Favorable weather in Brazil, slow soybean s...

Federal Reserve Meeting and Hearing This Week

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will meet on Wednesday to decide what to do about short-term interest rates. The Federal Funds Futures market puts the chance of a rate cut at about 90 percent following cuts in September and October. That meeting will also be when the Fed publishes a ne...

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