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Perking up Supply

Although coffee futures are edging back up (Arabica hit a peak a month ago), prices are descending in longer dated contracts as Brazil is expected to supply a good crop. The normally higher priced arabica has been getting chased by robusta prices as buyers seek substitution to save costs. World production has been down two years in a row, dropping last year nearly 6 percent from the 2021 peak, and down around 2.2 percent this year though better than in 2022.  The CAGR for coffee demand has been 5.7 percent and this imbalance in supply and demand is reflected in prices. The peak for coffee prices was in 2011 and they hit their second highest level in 2022. Current pricing is the second highest since 2014. Assuming weather cooperates, g...

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From WPI Consulting

Forecasting developments in production agriculture

On behalf of a private U.S. agricultural technology provider, WPI’s team generated an econometric model to forecast the movement of concentrated corn production north and west from the traditional U.S. Corn Belt. WPI’s model has subsequently provided quantitative support to a multi-million-dollar investment into short-season corn variety development. WPI’s methodology included a series of interviews with regional grain elevators and seed consultants. Emphasizing outreach and communication with stakeholders who possess intimate sectoral knowledge – on-the-ground insights – is a regular component of WPI’s methodologies, made possible by WPI’s ever-growing network of industry contacts.

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