World Perspectives

Recession Watch

Real GDP dipped at a -0.3 percent annual rate in Q1, the first decline for any quarter since 2022. However, the main reason was that trade with other countries accounted for the largest drag on the economy for any quarter since at least 1947, as both consumers and companies loaded up on goods from abroad before higher tariffs kicked in. Since GDP is designed to measure domestic production, imports are subtracted even though Americans buy those goods because they were produced abroad.  Real (inflation-adjusted) consumer spending increased at a moderate 1.8 percent annual rate in the first quarter and real business investment in equipment spiked up at a 22.5 percent annual rate, neither of which looks recessionary. “Core” GDP...

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WPI Crop Progress and Conditions App (Updated 5 May)

Update for 28 April 2025: Last year, users pointed out differences between the 5-year averages reported in this app and what USDA estimates in its weekly report. The difference exists because WPI calculates average based on the last 5 years of observations for the current week. In cases where o...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Summary of Futures

Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.555/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close.  Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.36/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close.  Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.4125/bushel, down $0.0425 from yesterday's close.  Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $293/short ton, down $2.5 fr...

Dollar Exchange Rate Impacts on Trade

President Trump is using tariffs to rectify what he asserts is the unfair practices by other countries. He also accuses trading partners of currency manipulation. He is correct that currency exchange rates impact the competitiveness of U.S. exports. USDA’s Economic Research Service mainta...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

WPI Crop Progress and Conditions App (Updated 5 May)

Update for 28 April 2025: Last year, users pointed out differences between the 5-year averages reported in this app and what USDA estimates in its weekly report. The difference exists because WPI calculates average based on the last 5 years of observations for the current week. In cases where o...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Summary of Futures

Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.555/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close.  Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.36/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close.  Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.4125/bushel, down $0.0425 from yesterday's close.  Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $293/short ton, down $2.5 fr...

Dollar Exchange Rate Impacts on Trade

President Trump is using tariffs to rectify what he asserts is the unfair practices by other countries. He also accuses trading partners of currency manipulation. He is correct that currency exchange rates impact the competitiveness of U.S. exports. USDA’s Economic Research Service mainta...

livestock

Livestock Industry Margins

Meat packer margins worsened last week for both the beef and pork sector as higher animal costs exceeded any gains in meat values. Beef packer margins fell $43/head last week and scored a new 15-year low according to WPI’s models as fed cattle prices surged and outpaced a $5 gain in the c...

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From WPI Consulting

Weighing in on strategic realignment

WPI’s team was retained by the governing board of a U.S. industry organization to review a decision, reached by vote, to invest significant assets into the development and management of an export trading company. WPI’s team conducted a formal review of this decision and concluded that the current level of market saturation would limit the benefits of the investment. Based on WPI’s analysis and recommended actions, the board subsequently reversed its decision and undertook a strategic planning effort to identify more impactful investments. On behalf of numerous clients, WPI has not only assisted in identifying strategic paths but also advised their implementation.

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