SPREADS
August crush trades to 90c/bu while oilshare trades to 47.63%. Corn inverses are slightly weaker as new buying comes into December. Sep/Dec inverse trades down to 5 1/2c from 8 1/4c, while Dec/March corn trades from 7 1/2c to 8c carry. August / Nov bean weakens to 61 3/4c from 70c, closing at 67c, while Sep/Nov inverse trades from 13 1/4c to 16 1/4c. Sep/Dec. meal carry trades from $1.40 out to $2.60. Dec wheat/corn trades from 1.25 1/2c to 1.32 3/4c. Sep/Dec wheat trades from 6 1/2c to 7 1/4c.
PALM OIL
Sep. palm closed up 20 ringgits to end at 4,131 ringgit/mt.
NEWS
The Dow is 65 pts higher as crude oil trades up to $72.28/barrel, and the US dollar trades to 92.75.
CALLS
Calls are as follows:
beans: 13-15 higher
meal: 3.80-4.20 higher
soyoil: 30-35 higher
corn: 4 1/2-5 higher
wheat: 13-15 higher
canola: 6.00 -6.50 higher
BUSINESS
USDA reported 134,000 mt of SRW wheat sold to China for 21/22.
TECHNICALS
November Beans: Wide trading range which has moved higher as of late, with lower support now located back at $13.25, with better support at $13.50 on a pullback of size. Prices traded into minor resistance which is $13.98 today. Look for a move beyond that to trigger more buying towards $14.15, and it appears very likely we are headed there. Lower support for the day moves up to the prev. gap level of $13.82 should we go there.
key support: $13.82 / $13.85
resistance: $13.98/$14.02
possible range: much the same or higher
December Meal: Overall trading range is from $355.00 to $380.00. The market has been on an impressive rally, but if one market were to lose strength after the open think it would be this one. However, better support is now evident on the chart, and would price more aggressively on a break if needing to.
first support: $363.00/$365.00
resistance: $370.00 to $372.00
possible range: much the same
December Soyoil: Prices are slowly testing the 65c level with breaks of 100 pts holding for further gains. The market settled well, and would look for pullbacks to hold for higher values over 65c. Target highs are 66c to 67c.
first support: 6450c
resistance: 65c to 6550c
possible range; much the same or lower
December Corn: Prices are firmer and trading higher into gap-fill which would be completed with a trade to $5.73 1/2. Double lows are now current from $5.50 - $5.51, and could be long against them for higher trade. Likely range now appears to be from $5.50 -$5.80, though the ADX is extremely weak indicating some lack of follow-through. A pullback to $5.55 for this day could be a day trading possibility in which to cover a short or own.
first support: $5.55
resistance: $5.65/$5.68
possible range: much the same or higher
December Wheat: The market gained speed to the upside over $6.69 which moves the current trading range up to $6.50 with the possibility of trading towards $6.98/$7.02. There is some resistance over $7.00 and it may be difficult the first time out to stay over it. If long, may want to lighten up should we go there, but think at some point we do.
first support: $6.80/$6.85
resistance: $6.95/$7.02
possible range: much the same
DECEMBER WHEAT
The market is still sideways from the low, but the rally pulls the lower end of the trading range up to $6.70, and we are approaching major cycle tops at $7.00. Given that prices have not been able to hold over $7.00, if long from the bottom would probably take a profit on some and keep the rest in case we settle over $7.00 today. The ADX trend is at a weak 19, meaning there is little follow-through on moves like this. However, think we do test $7.00 to $7.05, and perhaps the tops in place from late May and early June which were from 7.05 to $7.15. IF short, this is certainly the risk.
TAGS – Feed Grains, Soy & Oilseeds, Wheat, North America
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