World Perspectives
feed-grains wheat

World Wheat Production Slipping

We have been arguing for a few months that world wheat production estimates for a 700-plus MMT world wheat crop are too large. USDA did trim its production estimate slightly in its June WASDE, from 701 MMT to 696 MMT, but we think that is still too large by as much as 15-20 MMT. The table below is our latest world wheat outlook.The changes we made relative to June's USDA estimate are as follows. U.S. Hard red winter wheat (HRW) was pegged by USDA at 781 million bushels (21.25 MMT). The results in Texas and Oklahoma have been very disappointing, and we think that pattern will continue as the harvest moves northward over the next couple of weeks. Our opinion today is that HRW production will drop to 725-735 million bushels (about 20 MMT)...

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From WPI Consulting

Forecasting developments in production agriculture

On behalf of a private U.S. agricultural technology provider, WPI’s team generated an econometric model to forecast the movement of concentrated corn production north and west from the traditional U.S. Corn Belt. WPI’s model has subsequently provided quantitative support to a multi-million-dollar investment into short-season corn variety development. WPI’s methodology included a series of interviews with regional grain elevators and seed consultants. Emphasizing outreach and communication with stakeholders who possess intimate sectoral knowledge – on-the-ground insights – is a regular component of WPI’s methodologies, made possible by WPI’s ever-growing network of industry contacts.

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