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E15 Bill Stalls in Senate

Legislation to approve E15 runs into opposition as the gap between ethanol production and consumption continues to widen.The Senate Environment and Public...

June Cattle Placements Set Bearish Trend

USDA’s latest beef cattle supply data could be a harbinger of bearish cattle prices into the third quarter of next year.USDA released its monthly Cattle on...

Controversial Clovis; New Rice Market; Ignoring Facts

This is a good year for U.S. rice as China has moved forward on an approval process for buying it, and now the Nikkei reports that Japanese consumers are b...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...

2016 Farm Income Numbers

A survey of one program's Red River Valley farm clients’ 2016 financial results provided some interesting points, but that data will likely be quite differ...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

More corn in the domestic market and a weaker Argentine peso helped send local prices lower by AR200/MT ($10/MT), which is good news for certain exporters...

Market Commentary

Friday’s weak closes coupled with a major flip-flop in weather forecasts over the weekend brought more sellers to the markets Sunday night and this morning...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Corn has been a golden grain for the farmers in most states, but lower prices during harvest and higher ones for other crops may induce them to shift to mo...

Senate Ag Appropriations Bill Makes Down Payment on Farm Bill

The Senate ag appropriations bill includes funding and reform proposals for two programs that will help make the farm bill slightly easier to craft next ye...

Drought Impact

The northern Plains drought is worsening, and the spring wheat market has reflected part of the severity and lost production. There is one element, though,...

Market Commentary

The corn and soybean markets were both bearish today on the overnight rains that were better than expected. Spring wheat futures were again soft, and some...

Closing Futures Prices

WPI provides a summary of the week's futures price activity and the gains/losses experiences by grain, oilseed, and livestock markets. Additionally, today'...

Nice Rice Deal; Good USDA Team

The previously rumored key management team at USDA has now been formally nominated and thus headed for consideration in the Senate. Nice Rice Deal The Trum...

Market Commentary

More hot, dry weather emboldened bulls at the CBOT today. WPI’s future-implied crop yield models hold different outlooks for corn versus soybeans. General...

Global Soymeal Demand Growth in 2017/18

It is useful to occasionally take a look at the USDA forecast for growth in various commodities over the next year. This provides an understanding of where...

Closing Futures Prices

Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...

China In-Country Analysis

One significant factor is going to raise operating costs for the deep corn processing industry in China's northern and northeastern regions, and that will...

Closing Futures Prices

Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Prices on the Russian grain market kept growing overall, influenced by rising demand from one segment. Meanwhile, oilseed processors in Ukraine's central r...

Market Commentary

A sort of daily trading pattern has developed for grain and soy futures in recent days, which could be tied to the daily U.S. GFS and EU weather models in...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

While South Africa has its biggest maize crop in about forty years and will once again be an exporter, it will have difficulty shipping to some maize-starv...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...

NAFTA Objectives; Cotton Subsidies; GMO Transparency; Crooked Pointing

The White House released its negotiating objectives for NAFTA modernization, and there were mixed reactions. NAFTA Objectives Analyzed The White House rele...

Breaking Down U.S. Wheat Classes

While traders had become accustomed to a world wheat market dominated by other origins, the U.S. wheat crop in 2017 has drawn more market attention than du...

Market Commentary

Yesterday’s rather placid grain and soy futures trade was replaced by a return of the weather market overnight. Most prices for corn, wheat and soybeans qu...

House Budget Committee to Consider Budget Tomorrow

The House budget resolution has no specific instructions in the reconciliation package regarding spending cuts to farm and nutrition programs nor suggested...

Agricultural Trade Policy Moving

The EU, Brazil, Peru, Colombia and Uruguay have together proposed new disciplines on domestic agricultural supports. By contrast, the largest U.S. farm gro...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Brazilian soybean basis moved sharply higher this week as Chinese buyers suddenly wanted to purchase August soybeans, both FOB and CNF. The basis CNF react...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

A few trades of Bulgarian feed wheat were reported last week at €159/MT ($182/MT) FOB. After one particular development, though, the market is offered at €...

Market Commentary

Corn, soybean and wheat futures finished the evening session about unchanged. Minneapolis wheat futures were then firmer this morning, soybeans turned high...

Guts Poker

The current U.S. (and Canada) growing season has not been as perfect as in the past three or four years, and it is starting to look much like guts poker, a...

New Animal Disease Strategy Still Dependent on Traceability

USDA’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) Veterinary Services office announced an animal disease response plan, but that is dependent on th...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

GOI's 26 May notifiation of new rules that effectively banned the trading of cattle, including buffaloes, for slaughter at animal markets was met with a pe...

Domestic Supports; NAFTA; Crop Prices

Many WTO members would like to see new disciplines on domestic supports, but there is far from a consensus on how much and where. Future of Domestic Suppor...

Restaurants Come Out Against E15

As previously reported, with the growth in ethanol production and production efficiency (see Ag Perspectives, 16 May) along with the mandated trend to grea...

Market Commentary

Weather risk isn’t over yet, and the grains markets traded accordingly. Elsewhere, cattle and hog futures followed divergent paths as their fundamentals sh...

U.S. and World Wheat

There are several differences between WPI's wheat production estimates by country and USDA's 12 July numbers. The net result, though, is a significant shif...

Restaurants Come Out Against E15

As previously reported, with the growth in ethanol production and production efficiency (see Ag Perspectives, 16 May) along with the mandated trend to grea...

Closing Futures Prices

WPI provides a summary of the week's futures price activity and the gains/losses experiences by grain, oilseed, and livestock markets. Additionally, today'...

Restaurants Come Out Against E15

Legislation to approve E15 blends of ethanol is moving in the Senate, but it has garnered opposition from the National Council of Chain Restaurants.As prev...

Takeaways from the July WASDE

The northern Plains drought and the erratic, potentially threatening weather for crops in the western Corn Belt invested yesterday’s July WADSE with perhap...

U.S. Meat Exports Losing Leverage in Japan

The EU has negotiated a trade deal with Japan following on the Japan-Australia agreement of 2015. With the U.S. pulled out of the TPP, U.S. red meat export...

Market Commentary

If anyone needed a tutorial on the dangers that lurk in weather markets, today’s grain and soy markets provided one. Longs may have taken a beating, but en...

Closing Futures Prices

Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...

KORUS Leverage; Europe’s Ag Strategy

The U.S. has requested a joint committee meeting with South Korea under the U.S.-Korea Free Trade Agreement (KORUS) with the goal of making it a “more bala...

Market Commentary

The July WASDE conveyed an overall bearish tone for the grains, but it was mildly supportive for soybeans. As expected, it diverted market attention away f...

China In-Country Analysis

U.S. wheat exports to China during January-May 2017 totaled 980,206 MT at a value of $229.7 million, surpassing the entire volume for all of 2016. The U.S...

Refugee Value; Localization

University of Notre Dame researchers tracked refugees entering the U.S. in terms of outcomes and found there was one critical factor in success rates. Refu...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russia and Ukraine have both released the total volumes of their respective grain exports for MY 2016/17. Ukraine has also reportedly experienced a very si...

China In-Country Analysis

U.S. wheat exports to China during January-May 2017 totaled 980,206 MT at a value of $229.7 million, surpassing the entire volume for all of 2016. The U.S...

Market Commentary

Trading volume was quite large again overnight, but it then slowed during the day session with prices recovering to levels around Monday’s closes. It was a...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Egypt's problem with ergot has always been with the standard for wheat, which has been revised higher. However, the acceptable level has remained at 0.0 pe...

Africa Realism; DET Dumping; Hamburg Hypocrites

U.S. biodiesel producers are now seeking retroactive antidumping and countervailing duties on imports of competing product from Argentina and Indonesia. Af...

EU Ag Council to Consider Soya Declaration

The proposal, which is intended to address the EU's feed protein deficit through a series of steps, is scheduled to be considered at  the council...

Many Questions, Few Answers

USDA’s July WASDE has grabbed only modest attention in recent years. However, circumstances have changed the intensity of interest as this year's edition c...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...

Ag Appropriations Bill Directs FDA on Regulating Plant-Based Milks

Heretofore, the FDA has been uncooperative with the dairy and meat industries' fights against use of the terms “milk” and “meat” by plant-based substitutes...

G20 Trade Realism; Risky Forecasts

The OECD and FAO issued their annual long-range outlook (2017-2026) for global food commodity prices, and the U.S. Congressional Budget Office makes the sa...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

The wheat markets are quiet with not much business reported for new crop since they heated up two weeks ago. Wheat with 11.5 percent protein rose to the mi...

Market Commentary

Soybeans continue to lead the markets higher on the continuing treat of hot, dry weather encompassing more of the northern Plains and Corn Belt. Corn, thou...

Appropriations Bill and Budget Resolution This Week?

The House of Representatives is likely to take up both the ag appropriations bill and the FY 2018 budget resolution this week. What will that mean for agri...

Closing Futures Prices

Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

The milling wheat market in Romania and Bulgaria was quite active last week as many farmers took advantage of one particular development. Meanwhile, weathe...

The Weather Market Has Arrived

There hasn’t been one in the U.S. since 2012, and USDA is currently using the second-highest corn and soybean yields ever in its supply/demand analysis. It...

Is the “America First” Approach Changing Biofuel Policy?

The U.S. EPA has released the proposed 2018 Required Volume Obligations (RVOs) for biofuels, the first such issued by the Trump administration, and it sign...

Market Commentary

The soybean story seems to be more about weather than demand. Today’s issue was that it is a Friday and forecasts can change over the weekend. Meanwhile, w...

Is the Wheat Rally Real?

Minneapolis futures had an incredibly volatile week, but nothing really changed from a fundamental aspect other than the hard red spring wheat crop got sma...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Even though the MSPs for pulses and oilseeds have been increased for the khariff season, the market prices for the former are much lower. As a result, farm...

Closing Futures Prices

WPI provides a summary of the week's futures price activity and the gains/losses experiences by grain, oilseed, and livestock markets. Additionally, today'...

Closing Futures Prices

Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...

Market Commentary

Soybean futures prices are more or less following their own path and ignoring the gyrations of the wheat markets as those futures fell victim to their own...

What the HRS Market Tells Us

For traders who have become used to a price movement of 25 cents being a big deal in grain and soy futures markets over the past few years, the current MGE...

RIN Investigation; Ag Export Hearing

U.S. EPA announced a review of the Renewable Identification Numbers (RINs) system that undergirds the fuel ethanol utilization program and has issued a req...

Self-Righteous Trade; A Rose; Biofuel Cut

The U.S. dairy industry has been fighting use of the term “milk” by nondairy products for nearly 20 years, and now the meat industry is gearing up for a fi...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

The trends in Ukraine's milling wheat, feed wheat, and feed barley markets all changed last week, influenced by the start of the 2017 harvests. Meanwhile,...

China In-Country Analysis

The average producer’s prices for soymeal and soyoil increased RMB 3/MT ($0.44/MT) to RMB 2,710/MT ($400.3/MT) and RMB 114/MT ($16.84/MT) to RMB 5,90...

Market Commentary

As a result of current weather forecasts, today’s futures markets seemed undecided about price direction as grain and soy prices swung back and forth in wi...

China In-Country Analysis

The average producer’s prices for soymeal and soyoil increased RMB 3/MT ($0.44/MT) to RMB 2,710/MT ($400.3/MT) and RMB 114/MT ($16.84/MT) to RMB 5,90...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...

Market Commentary

The soy complex started firm overnight on the warmer, drier weather forecasts, and Minneapolis wheat futures continued to charge ahead last night and today...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

The Brazilian market quickly became stronger last week. Two factors drove basis higher, especially in the CNF market where the most liquid position has bee...

More Things to Keep You Up at Night

The July 4th holiday in the U.S. typically marks the start of the most critical period of development for the corn and soybean crops, and there are several...

Trade Trouble; KROUS Redux; Back to Bite; Fuel Fight

The historical criticism is that America’s economic interests have taken a backseat to national security objectives, and despite his rhetoric demanding fai...

Closing Futures Prices

Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...

Record Swine Herd

USDA’s quarterly hogs and pigs report shows a record swine herd and future stability in the sector.USDA’s most recently released quarterly Hogs and Pigs re...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

The demand for feed wheat at current prices is difficult to find as corn is about $10-20 cheaper. In Spain, the spread between Brazilian corn and Bulgarian...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

As India rolls out its new Good and Services Tax (GST) starting 1 July 2017, the largest tax reform in quite some time is expected to possibly make Indian...

Closing Futures Prices

WPI provides a summary of the week's futures price activity and the gains/losses experiences by grain, oilseed, and livestock markets. Additionally, today'...

Market Commentary

Soybeans had quite a trading range today, triggered by more bullish USDA stocks and acreage numbers than expected, and there was no stopping wheat in any o...

USDA Reports Positive Soybeans, Negative Corn

Today’s USDA acreage and stocks numbers didn’t contain any big surprises, but there were a few small ones.Today’s USDA acreage and stocks numbers didn’t co...

U.S. and China: Is the Honeymoon Over?

Trade talks between the U.S. and China yielded early and unexpected positive outcomes, which may now be in jeopardy.Foreign policy concerns took precedence...

Cattle on Feed Way Up; Independence Day Cookout Slightly Cheaper

The dynamics between fed cattle marketings and placements are analyzed with their implications for next quarters' beef demand and pricing. Feedlot turnover...

Closing Futures Prices

Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...

This Week’s Reports

Today's report from Statistics Canada and tomorrow's from USDA should present a good picture of how land has been planted with the major grain and oilseed...

Market Commentary

Overnight trading in grains and the soy complex started out slowly with mixed price action, but volume picked up and prices began to firm as traders contin...

Korean Curtsy; Trump Risks; WTO Agenda Outlook

The EU utilizes direct payments as a farm support mechanism, and they are considered the least distorting approach. Now, however, the CAP is under severe b...

Ag Review: U.S. Grains and the Weather Market

WPI Agribusiness Subsector Outlook   A brief review of WPI’s past Bull/Bear calls and industry stock price performance. WPI Bull/Bear Leani...

Market Commentary

The looming USDA reports and weather uncertainties are combining to constrain trading in grain and soy futures. The general quiet trend continued during to...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian grain prices once again fluctuated insignificantly in RUB expression, but they decreased in USD expression as the ruble continued to weaken. Meanwh...

China In-Country Analysis

Last week’s landed price of imported soybeans dropped $14/MT to $387/MT even as the yuan fell slightly against the U.S. dollar. That lower cost, howe...

Daft on NAFTA; Inverse Trade Views

The purpose of free trade negotiations is to reduce the barriers to cross-border transactions, but some want to use the “modernization” of NAFTA to actuall...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...

2017/18 U.S. Wheat Outlook

A great abundance of wheat supplies in the U.S. and a record-large volume in the world were the dominant features in 2016/17 that resulted in relatively lo...

Market Commentary

Grain and soy futures prices firmed in rather active overnight trade, and a similar pattern followed in the day session. Shrinking spring wheat production...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Turkey is seeking changes to its customs union with the EU. Industrial goods are currently covered, and there is talk of possibly adding agricultural produ...

Closing Futures Prices

Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...

EU-Japan; NAFTA +/-; Kowtowing; Budget Bobbing

EU negotiators are reportedly anxious to close a free trade agreement with Japan. Meanwhile, a report by the Congressional Research Service identifies the...

House Appropriators Release Ag Funding Bill

Tomorrow the House Appropriations Committee’s subcommittee on Agriculture will consider farm and food program spending for FY 2018.The House Appropriations...

Border Adjustment Tax Idea Is Fading

Two of the top leaders in Congress, the speaker and the House Ways and Means Committee chairman, are running into stiff opposition to their border adjustme...

Market Commentary

Corn, soybeans and Minneapolis wheat futures traded higher overnight, while KC and Chicago wheat traded lower. Markets then traded slightly higher all day...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

The GASC purchased 55,000 MT of Ukrainian wheat and 120,000 MT of Romanian origin last week, paying $207-209/MT CNF for 25 July-10 August shipment. There w...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Brazil’s soybean market is rebounding after weeks of weakness, and soybean production estimates are finalized in Argentina. Soybeans Brazil Brazil’s market...

Status of Barley and Oat Crops

The focus on the northern Plains drought has been on its potential impact on hard red spring wheat production, and that is important for several reasons. H...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...

232; Modi Monday; By Christmas; Don't Say Doha

The Trump administration is expected to release its Section 232 report late this week. The U.S. agriculture community is concerned that extrajudicial actio...

Wheat Keeps Getting More Interesting

As spring crop ratings plunged again last week and hard red winter wheat protein levels continue to be a concern, issues with wheat production outside of N...

Trump on Ag: Rhetoric and Reality Gap

President Trump gave a speech in Iowa this week focusing heavily on ag, especially biofuels issues, but it is what was between the lines that raises some c...

Distrust; TTIP Phoenix; Self-Flagellation

Japan is cool toward a bilateral free trade agreement with the U.S. after Prime Minister Shinzo Abe expended his political capital last year on the TPP. Ne...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

The overall sowing of pulses crops in India is down 33.74 percent as of 23 June versus a year ago. Farmers are facing challenging planting decisions as som...

Market Commentary

It is tough to have a corn or soybean rally in June when temperatures are below normal and there is at least some precipitation in the forecast. Wheat, led...

Closing Futures Prices

WPI provides a summary of the week's futures price activity and the gains/losses experiences by grain, oilseed, and livestock markets. Additionally, today'...

Market Commentary

The decline of corn and soybean futures prices in overnight trading accelerated during the day session as the July contracts for both moved below technical...

Cattle on Feed; Fat Fight

Last month's feeder calf placements data points to a changing supply situation for the beef market next quarter. Similarly, feedlots' fed cattle marketings...

Selective Free Trade; GMO Suit; Salty; Local

EU leaders have spent ample time criticizing the “America First” message of Donald Trump and proclaiming faith in free trade, but their message will be dif...

New Season for USDA Reports

On 30 June, the new season of USDA reports gets well underway. USDA may have a longer history of reporting on world agriculture than any other entity, and...

Closing Futures Prices

Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...

China In-Country Analysis

Two factors enabled the Canadian pork industry to greatly benefit in the past year from a surge in exports to China, hitting a record of nearly 314,000 MT...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Ukraine's milling wheat prices continued to decrease on the domestic market during the week of 12-16 June, reflecting the end-of-season trend. However, exp...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...

Market Commentary

Trading volume overnight was better than might be indicated by the lack of price movement, but it was unimpressive during the day session. Later during the...

Ethanol Stocks and Exports Up, Domestic Use and Margins Down

Driving demand for fuel has been slower than expected so far this year, and refinery runs are increasing. This means exports and inventories of petroleum p...

Regulating Food; License; African Contrasts

Efforts to reduce consumptive diseases has produced a slew of regulatory responses, including labeling, taxes and educational efforts. However, a study com...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...

An Important Three Weeks

While the grain and soy complex markets have already been in the early throes of a weather market, the next three weeks will provide a wide variety of fres...

Market Commentary

Corn and soy complex futures traded rather quietly overnight with minimal price changes. However, wheat prices moved higher again. During the day session,...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Experts in South Africa are saying that the bumper 2017 grain crops will lead to lower prices for dairy products, meat and other grain-dependent items. Bec...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

The Bulgarian feed wheat price has increased sharply since last week as it followed the MATIF wheat futures rally. Consequently, the spread between that an...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...

Is U.S. Weather the Only Game in Town?

Markets have been concentrating on the start to the U.S. growing season, and that will continue to be the dominant market factor for the next 30-60 days. H...

Market Commentary

It was interesting that corn’s losses were being blamed on a better weather outlook, but that same forecast didn’t push soybeans lower. The soy complex was...

Narrowing the Fed’s Balance Sheet

In addition to raising the federal funds rate at its 13-14 June, the Federal Reserve addressed the issue of how it will roll off its massive holdings of se...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Old crop wheat prices have been depressed for months now, mainly due to exporters’ big long positions and slow, small Brazilian demand. Argentine wheat is...

Where Ag Finds Itself on Trade

Who could have predicted the situation in which the U.S. ag sector now finds itself with Mexico and China?As the saying goes, “Don’t judge a book by its co...

It’s Weather Time

It is now past the prime reproductive period for small grains (spring wheat, durum, barley, oats, etc.), and the critical weather period for corn and soybe...

Market Commentary

Minneapolis wheat futures took the lead again in overnight trade, and that pattern followed through at the day session opening. The uncertainty today was t...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

The federal and state governments have been unable to buy grain/oilseeds/pulses at the declared MSP, and GOI wants the private sector to lower the prices o...

Closing Futures Prices

WPI provides a summary of the week's futures price activity and the gains/losses experiences by grain, oilseed, and livestock markets. Additionally, today'...

State of the Food Economy

Word that Amazon is buying Whole Foods sent shock waves through a food industry already wobbling from the enormous changes being incurred. First and foremo...

Milk Shake; Beef Hurdles; NAFTA Issues; Shorts

USDA Secretary Sonny Perdue appeared to be referencing the ultrafiltered milk issue when he stated that Canada’s dairy processing schemes were key to the f...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...

China; COOL; Cattle Outside of Feedlots

One of China's requirements in its agreement regarding U.S. beef shipments is traceability, and Senator Jon Tester (D-Montana) has noted this is a model fo...

Market Commentary

Overnight losses were gradually reduced during the day session. Today’s futures market price action suggests that traders are still concerned that hot, dry...

2016/17: A Year for Exports

The U.S. contributed to the world production records in 2016/17 by harvesting its own record corn and soybean crops. Also impressive has been the continued...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...

Market Commentary

Wheat markets tried hard to keep the rally going today, but the effort ran out of steam in the face of light selling from recent longs taking profits. Corn...

China In-Country Analysis

Although China’s yuan continued to gain ground on the U.S. dollar, last week’s landed price of imported soybeans rose $5/MT to $402/MT. The ave...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Ukrainian sunflower seed oil prices fell on the domestic market and remained stable on the export market, influenced by two developments. Meanwhile, grain...

Outlook for U.S. Spring Wheat

Grain and soy market futures prices have mostly been moving up or down for the past two weeks, and the star performer has been MGEX spring wheat futures. B...

Details of U.S.-China Beef Deal Reached

The beef industry is still reviewing the new regulations for resuming shipments to China, and that analysis will lead to assumptions about export volumes n...

Unsustainable Splintering; Farm Policy Splintering; Robotic Benefit

The U.S. rural credit entity Farmer Mac issued its quarterly report called The Feed, which indicates that wage rates have risen faster in production agricu...

Market Commentary

Grain and soy prices moved higher across the board overnight as several developments caught traders' attention. Their reactions were tempered, however, by...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

The latest USDA/FAS report is projecting Turkey’s 2017/18 soybean imports will be up by about 400,000 MT over 2016/17 forecasts of 2.45 MMT. Domestic produ...

House Ag Committee Dubious About Eliminating Food Aid Programs

The president’s budget proposed draconian cuts to international food aid programs, but Congress is skeptical.The president’s FY 2018 budget proposal (see A...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

The Egyptian GASC purchased 240,000 MT of Russian wheat and 120,000 MT of Romanian origin over the weekend, paying $204.02-206.40/MT CNF for 10-20 July shi...

Import Substitution; Biofuel’s Contribution; Hunger’s Roots

Encouraging domestic production is better than imposing import barriers, although relying on the market and comparative advantage is even better. Import Su...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Based on CNF prices, Brazil's soybeans traded for June at $1.06N China and for July at $1.17N. Eexporters there are checking export margins daily to determ...

Market Commentary

A little less heat and perhaps a bit more rain coupled with a slightly bearish USDA supply/demand report last week brought sellers to the soy complex today...

Weather Market Vagaries

Markets were down rather hard today. They started lower in the Sunday evening session, and those losses accelerated once today’s trading session got underw...

Political Economy; Consolidation; Impeachment

8 June was quite eventful with the Conservative government of Theresa May taking a beating in the polls and Donald Trump, whether he realizes it or not, bl...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Minimum Support Prices (MSPs) have been increased in each of the three years of the Modi government. While perhaps a good political tool, these higher pric...

Market Commentary

After being lower overnight, the market was kept tentative today by that along with a few other issues. In addition, it must be remembered that this is Fri...

Uninspiring USDA Reports

Not much inspiration was expected from today’s USDA reports, and that’s exactly what they delivered. However, there are a few important factors to keep in...

Higher Number of Smaller Cattle Impacts Beef Production

How much longer will cattle trend toward lighter slaughter weights?Today’s WASDE report lowered earlier estimates of total 2017 beef production based on li...

Closing Futures Prices

WPI provides a summary of the week's futures price activity and the gains/losses experiences by grain, oilseed, and livestock markets. Additionally, today'...

Unlocking Infrastructure; Weighing Food Aid

The lock and dam system in the U.S. is a crumbling mess, and the industry has been split on how to fix it. Whether or not Trump’s plan breaks that divide,...

Transition and Turmoil

The first week of June is usually when grain and soy markets shift their attention to the growing of U.S. spring-sown crops, a transition that has been tum...

Market Commentary

The grain and soy market’s bullish drumbeat continued to roll overnight. Prices then moved still higher as trading resumed during the day session, and MGEX...

Closing Futures Prices

Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...

Market Commentary

There is no doubt that we are in a full-fledged weather market just now, one that developed rapidly enough to catch noncommercial shorts. When July corn pu...

Closing Futures Prices

Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian grain prices mostly remained unchanged or grew slightly as Ag Minster Aleksandr Tkachov revised his 2017 grain production forecast on 1 June. Meanw...

China In-Country Analysis

China's average domestic corn price remained steady at RMB 1,670/MT ($245.23/MT) last week, but that market is facing mounting pressure with more state-res...

Balkanized Food; Projected Welfare

Donald Trump receives ample criticism from Europeans for his “America First” proclamations, but the only difference is his transparency since n...

U.S. Sugar Industry Abandons Deal with Mexico

Despite a detailed agreement that addresses almost all U.S. concerns over Mexican sugar imports, the U.S. industry does not support the pact.U.S. Commerce...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

It is being suggested that most of South Africa’s possible 3 MMT of maize exports this year will be used in East Africa, although some countries there will...

Wheat on the March

Old habits are often hard to break, but bearish fund managers are undoubtedly becoming nervous about their short wheat positions and probably with good rea...

Oilseed Highlights; Sunseed Production; New Palm Oil Varieties

The company SMART Tbk has developed two new clones of oil palms via conventional breeding techniques, and they have been shown to produce much higher yield...

USA versus PRC; Taxes before Building; Sugar Solution

Former five-time Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad contradicts Donald Trump by saying that the remaining countries in the Trans-Pacific Partnership...

Market Commentary

The overnight session was relatively quiet with barely average trading volumes and prices that were mixed but without much change. Then today it was the su...

NAFTA Sweeteners: Let’s Make a Deal

After nearly two-and-a-half years of trade negotiations over sugar, last month the U.S. commerce secretary put a hard deadline on the talks. A deal now app...

Asia’s Trump; Science Battle; Trade and Emission Rhetoric

Donald Trump was elected as the anti-establishment candidate in the U.S., and now Moon Jae-in is fulfilling that role as the new leader of South Korea. His...

Market Commentary

The week started with a wildly unexciting day in the markets. News was scarce, as the price movement verified. The widening drought across the northern Pla...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

The Brazilian soybean market has moved even further into the spot positions. As exporters need to use their facilities, several trading houses went short b...

Closing Futures Prices

Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...

Spring Wheat Supplies Getting Smaller

Weather is quickly starting to raise concerns about the northern Plains spring wheat production potential, and the simple explanation is that it has become...

Closing Futures Prices

Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

The Black Sea market remained about unchanged last week for the old crop and about $2 firmer for the new crop. Two factors have helped the July/August pric...

The Gospel According to Crop Ratings

USDA's weekly crop ratings report can  be a valuable tool if market participants use them as a guide and not as a scientifically factual, reliable yie...

WTO Changes; #1; Psychoanalyzing Trump

Donald Trump declared the WTO a disaster, and U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer says he wants to fix it. However, it is other members who are mov...

Economic Data for the Fed to Consider

A summary of positive economic data will be on the agenda for the Federal Reserve’s June meeting to decide on further interest rate hikes.The Federal Reser...

Market Commentary

Markets were quiet much of the Thursday night session, but they gained a little steam early this morning and closed higher. USDA's announcement of a sale t...

Closing Futures Prices

WPI provides a summary of the week's futures price activity and the gains/losses experiences by grain, oilseed, and livestock markets. Additionally, today'...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

GOI's notification of a new ban on the trading of cattle for slaughter is impacting a number of sectors in addition to farmers' income. There has been oppo...

The Changing Grain Business

The grain business has substantially changed in many ways over the years, some of which can make achieving satisfactory profitability more difficult and co...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...

Market Commentary

One need only look at today’s price action to determine that markets had very little to trade on other than a generally improving weather outlook into mid-...

Record Cattle on Feed; Holy Cow: Indian Cattle Ban

The dynamics between fed cattle marketings and placements are analyzed with their implications for next quarters' beef demand and pricing. Feedlot turnover...

Interstate Barriers; Thank Trump; Product Evolution

Donald Trump pulled the U.S. out of the Paris agreement, and now states, municipalities and companies are declaring their own effort to reduce emissions. I...

Closing Futures Prices

Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...

Market Commentary

Although it may lack much long-term significance, yesterday's weekly crop condition report finally gave markets something to trade on. Soybean futures trad...

News Interpretations; Doud; Impeachment; Consolidation

A decision by the U.S. Supreme Court  regarding ink cartridges could have implications for GM seeds and many other products, and its refusal to hear a...

China In-Country Analysis

As China continued to intervene in its currency market, the cost of imported soybeans fell by $2/MT to $404/MT last week. Meanwhile, changes in the average...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Turkish exporters are insisting that all Russian agricultural products be limited to 20-25 percent of the total volume of imports because of one specific c...

The Trending Summer Season

Each Memorial Day holiday marks the beginning of the U.S. summer growing season for spring-planted crops, and there are several observations related to cer...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

The Zimbabwean government is pushing ahead with plans for mandatory food fortification beginning 1 June 2017, including maize and wheat flour. Millers are...

Market Commentary

Grain and soy markets turned slightly weaker as trading resumed last night. That continued into the day session this morning, and it soon accelerated under...

E15 Answer to Shrinking Ethanol Market

Looking ahead over the next eight years, it becomes clear that there will be less gasoline used in the transportation sector, which in turn means less oppo...

Closing Futures Prices

Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...

Reading Between Merkel-Trump

The transatlantic war of words is unsettling, but it is long overdue. Germany previously ignored the all too subtle Obama administration’s request to meet...

Closing Futures Prices

WPI provides a summary of the week's futures price activity and the gains/losses experiences by grain, oilseed, and livestock markets. Additionally, today'...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

An increase in the MSP for pulses incentivized farmers to expand their plantings, and 2016/17 production is projected at a record 22.4 MMT. However, those...

Market Commentary

Corn and wheat were slightly higher overnight with the soy complex slightly lower. Those trends continued today, but the changes then became noticeably lar...

Transatlantic Discussions; Currency Adjustment

The People’s Bank of China tried to use a more market-oriented approach to tying the value of the yuan to the U.S. dollar, but that is changing. Transatlan...

Barley Now A Specialty Crop

Barley acres have taken a significant brunt of the corn and oilseed acreage expansion in the U.S. and Canada, and there are a number of reasons why.The U.S...

Trumped Agenda; Ignore the Previous; Political Animals; China Cynic

China’s Commerce Ministry has issued a report on trade relations with the U.S. and publicizes the government’s commitment to increase imports from America...

Market Commentary

Grain and soy futures prices edged slightly higher in quiet, low volume overnight trade. The slight overnight firmness evaporated first on indications of i...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...

U.S. Winter Wheat Issues

With tightening supplies of HRW and concerns about new crop quality, it is reasonable to ask what is going on in the KC HRW futures market.U.S. winter whea...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...

Kill People, Save Bugs; Consumer Miscalculation

Farmer and seed producer Mark Scholl spoke today at a Farm Foundation forum on food and agriculture regulations, lamenting that it now takes nearly twice a...

China In-Country Analysis

Entering the fourth week of the current round of state-reserved corn auctions, total sales of over 10 MMT have exceeded market expectations. Meanwhile, the...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Ukraine's  milling wheat prices fell across both the domestic and export markets for several reasons, a trend followed by its feed wheat prices. Meanw...

Market Commentary

The day’s most active futures market was MGEX spring wheat. With building evidence that this year’s HRW crop will likely be unusually low in protein conten...

Market Commentary

In true “Turnaround Tuesday” fashion, soybean, corn and wheat futures gave back all of Monday’s gains plus more. Soymeal futures fell about $1.50, and soyo...

Trump Submits Budget Plan with Farm Bill Reforms

The 2018 Farm Bill debate just got a jump start with the submission of the president’s budget plan that includes a number of related reform proposals...

Taxicology; Adriukaitus Grows; Bittman Bitter

U.S. tax reform has caused fissures within fissures, and the House leadership’s border adjustment tax (BAT) is notably front and center with the effect on...

Uncertainties Ahead

Agricultural futures markets live for and exist on uncertainty since that is what creates volatility, which is their lifeblood. All the usual sources of do...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Egypt’s GASC has raised the minimum protein requirements on its wheat tenders, and some indicate this may be a problem for one particular origin. Meanwhile...

The Complexities of Wheat

Wheat has been the whipping boy of the market for the past several years and the short leg of every spread. Unlike corn and soybeans, which are the same ar...

Market Commentary

Markets traded steady to slightly higher overnight in average volume. Additional buying surfaced at today’s openings, taking wheat, corn and soybeans to mo...

Closing Futures Prices

Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...

The Trump Budget’s Unusual Unveiling

The Trump administration’s FY 2018 budget proposal is expected this week, but the lack of political marketing is curious.The White House is scheduled to re...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Argentine farmer selling stands at around 20 percent of the crop. However, the market dried up after the Brazilian political scandal moved the CBOT lower...

Complex Agenda; Muddle and Muddle; Quote of the Week

While the Trump administration notified Congress this week of its intent to renegotiate NAFTA, starting a 90-day window before the talks begin, trade polic...

Corn Bullish – Maybe?

The corn market has been clearly bearish with analysts talking about record supplies amid increasing world production and greater competition for export sh...

Are Lower Broiler Exports to OPEC an Object Lesson for NAFTA?

Lower oil export earnings for OPEC countries have affected U.S. broiler exports; is there a lesson for the NAFTA renegotiations?We’ve long argued that the...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

As India transitions into the new Goods & Services Tax (GST) regime to be rolled out 1 July, the tax rates for various goods have been announced. Meanw...

Ag Review: China's Soyoil Problem

WPI Agribusiness Subsector Outlook   A brief review of WPI’s past Bull/Bear calls and industry stock price performance. WPI Bull/Bear Leani...

Market Commentary

CBOT soybean prices recovered today as political fears in the U.S. and Brazil were calmed. Wheat futures were higher, and one can now logically make a bull...

Closing Futures Prices

WPI provides a summary of the week's futures price activity and the gains/losses experiences by grain, oilseed, and livestock markets. Additionally, today'...

Closing Futures Prices

Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...

Trading Politics

Commercial and noncommercial traders are accustomed to the difficulties and uncertainties involved in trading agricultural futures markets. However, all th...

Market Commentary

The tale of two presidents and their political problems has dominated grain and soy complex markets for the last two days, and they have had a notable impa...

Chinese Chicken; Cheese Please

One lawmaker’s concerns over chicken imports may be a hurdle for U.S. beef access to China. Meanwhile, its growth in exports shows cheese is a new trend in...

Green Waste; NAFTA Nonsense; Chocolate; Stocks; Obvious

After ruling out imposing tariffs on ethanol imports from the U.S. due to concerns about retaliation, the Brazilian government will require that importers...

Rural Downgrade; Facebook Science

USDA Secretary Sonny Perdue should find it easy to explain his proposed removal of the undersecretary for rural development position and budget cutting, an...

China In-Country Analysis

Although China's landed price of imported soybeans fell $2/MT to $411/MT last week as the national inventory climbed slightly, another factor pushed the do...

Market Commentary

Commodity markets were supported in general by the sinking U.S. dollar, which hit a six-month low today and has now given back its entire post-election ral...

Closing Futures Prices

Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russia's domestic grain prices continued to drop (in RUB) across most regions, and grain exports from its seaports during 5-11 May were significantly lower...

Market Commentary

Grain and soy futures trade was either dull as dishwater or exciting, depending on what one’s interest might be. KC wheat was a bit more interesting today,...

A Fundamentally Mixed Bag

The supply side of the 2017/18 U.S supply/demand balance is being molded by crop production prospects. However, the demand side is being fashioned by quite...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

To protect its local crop, Morocco has reintroduced a significant tariff on soft wheat imports until the end of 2017. As in the past, tariff levels will be...

Ethanol Industry’s E15 Game Plan

The ethanol industry’s regulatory and legislative strategy to gain approval for E15 either by regulation or legislation is outlined.While E15 has been gene...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...

So Special; Science Disrupters; Wisely Beyond Friends

Demands by NGO groups in Europe to “fix the broken CAP” proved too much for even Phil Hogan, the most civil EU farm commissioner. So Special Demands by non...

Singapore Silly; Wrong-Way Ag; Tuna Test; NAFTA/Commodities

The world’s third-largest financial capital and the country with the world’s second-largest volume of external trade per capita doesn’t trust trade. How el...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Low demand is the main reason for the lack of movement in Argentina's FOB corn market, and there are a few factors causing domestic and Brazilian consumers...

Soybeans Bullish – Seriously?

The soy complex continues to be the energizer of agricultural markets. However, Its rallying would seem to be impossible in the face of another record worl...

Market Commentary

Corn and wheat markets were under some selling pressure in the Sunday night session with soybeans slightly higher on very light trading volume. Selling the...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...

China Opens to U.S. Beef – for Real This Time

The U.S. and China have reached a trade deal, which includes U.S. beef access to the Chinese market for the first time in almost 14 years. What can be expe...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

The wheat market in Romania and Bulgaria was quiet last week without any trades reported. Some parcels of both origins' 12.5 percent wheat are offered in t...

Channeling Le Trump; Real Deal; Pungent Policy; Day Late

Much of U.S. agriculture has been hyperventilating that Donald Trump is going to get into a trade war and the resulting trade retaliation is going to hurt...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

With a goal of doubling Indian farmers’ income by 2022, agriculture needs land reforms. This will require an increase in productivity and a move away from...

Very High Benchmarks – Can They Be Reached?

USDA’s May reports contained yield and production estimates for spring crops still being planted, so there are several important items to watch and conside...

Closing Futures Prices

WPI provides a summary of the week's futures price activity and the gains/losses experiences by grain, oilseed, and livestock markets. Additionally, today'...

Market Commentary

USDA's friendly wheat and soybean estimates weren’t enough to spook the funds to cover lengthy short positions. They headed into this weekend short wheat,...

Closing Futures Prices

Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...

Market Commentary

Soybeans were a few pennies higher in overnight trading, while corn futures hung around just below unchanged. During the day session, however, prices for b...

Trends and Consequences

While USDA's 2017/18 projections of early May are vulnerable to a multitude of moving variables that will ultimately determine the actual outcome, they can...

Policy Mélange

U.S. wheat will plunge 21 percent this year to the lowest level in nearly a century. The industry blames foreign trade barriers for its plight, but there i...

Oilseed Highlights: WASDE; China Soybean Update

USDA’s WASDE report of yesterday included some interesting changes to the oilseed sector forecasts for 2016/17 as well first projections for 2017/18 that a...

WASDE Recap; Nervous Cattle Markets

The May WASDE trimmed red meat and poultry production estimates but raised them for 2018. Meanwhile, cattle futures are deescalating quickly amid broad mar...

Money and Hypocrites; Shrinking Yield Folly; Nanny NaNa; Rigged

Overcoming their geopolitical concerns in the region and lingering animosity over WWII atrocities, the finance ministers for China, Japan and South Korea m...

China In-Country Analysis

China’s domestic corn market remained solid last week despite ongoing pessimism over the quality of the auctioned state-reserve corn. There are only...

The May WASDE

Although some of the 2017/18 projections varied from trade expectations, today’s WASDE did not offer anything of a serious market-moving nature. Neverthele...

Market Commentary

Today’s WASDE with its projections for 2017/18 did not generate much market excitement. As might be expected, though, the corn market showed the biggest re...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...

China In-Country Analysis

China’s domestic corn market remained solid last week despite ongoing pessimism over the quality of the auctioned state-reserve corn. There are only...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

The Russian holidays of 1-2 May and 8-9 May will influence grain prices, although market reaction will be delayed. Meanwhile, there were two other developm...

Market Commentary

Overnight trade seemed paralyzed by the prospect of Wednesday’s May WASDE. Markets then perked up some during the day session with a little more price acti...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...

On With the 2017/18 Crop Cycle

USDA’s May WASDE is always interesting and, dare we say it, entertaining. Besides the usual old crop (2016/17) updates of U.S. and world supply/demand bala...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Millers in Kenya are saying that they have not purchased all of the government’s released maize because of one cost-related issue. Meanwhile, the governmen...

Pork Farrow-to-Finish Forecast

This will again be a record year for pork production, but the impact of that along with more pigs and hogs is not as bearish as it may seem.This will again...

Sweet and Pesticide Battles; EU Policy Clash; WTO Impasse

The election of Emmanuel Macron to the French presidency was viewed as a vote of support for broader Europe, but that doesn’t mean a lack of policy clashes...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

The Brazilian soybean market showed huge movement during the past few weeks, especially in the June position. The interesting dynamic has recently been the...

Market Commentary

U.S. agricultural markets opened steady Sunday evening before gradually turning slightly easier on light volume. They then became markedly lower this morni...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

Algeria announced a tender today for July shipment, and the most likely origins are France, Germany and the Baltic. While the Black Sea new crop wheat for...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...

USDA’s May Reports – More Questions than Answers?

USDA's May series of reports will be released this Wednesday. These represent its first attempt to project the supply/demand estimates for MY 2017/18 and a...

Competitiveness Agenda

The days when governments controlled the sale and purchase of commodities are long past. Moreover, certain tools of that era have either been eliminated or...

Market Commentary

The one-day weather scare in wheat and the cold weather/planting issues across the Corn Belt didn’t alter the funds’ bearish stance. Meanwhile, the soy com...

Biodiesel Dumping Case Moving Forward

The USITC is considering punitive duties after finding “reasonable indication” of economic harm from Argentine and Indonesian biodiesel imports.The United...

Nose Cutter; Prohibition; Talent Loss

Mexican Senator and presidential candidate Armando Rios Piter has a way for his country to regain its dignity in the face of insults from Donald Trump: buy...

Rough Night in Jericho

Rough Night in Jericho is the name of an old western movie. As the title implies, things didn’t go as expected, and so it was with the wheat market this we...

Closing Futures Prices

WPI provides a summary of the week's futures price activity and the gains/losses experiences by grain, oilseed, and livestock markets. Additionally, today'...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

While India's edible vegetable oil imports are down and oil exports are up, reducing its forex exposure, the country will continue to depend on those parti...

Rapid-Fire Summaries

U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross says that concessions agreed by the NAFTA partners during TPP negotiations can serve as a starting point for updating t...

Questions Seeking Answers

Every business enterprise faces a changing multitude of questions, and agriculture is no different. Some of the questions, though, are a bit different this...

Closing Futures Prices

Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...

A Week Full of Crazy: Snowflake Edition

Last week was fully of crazy news for the livestock and meat sector with much of it involving snowflakes, both real and of the college variety. Blizzard Sn...

Market Commentary

There was widespread weakness in many commodity markets today with grain and soy complex futures joining the march toward lower prices. Overall trading vol...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Prices continued to drop overall on the Russian grain markets, although there were slightly different patterns in a few regions. Meanwhile, Ukrainian grain...

China In-Country Analysis

According to China Customs data, 181,900 MT of pork were imported in February, an increase of 153.8 percent compared with the same month a year ago. The on...

Market Commentary

Trading during the day session was quiet, and price action was choppy. The corn market does not seem to know what to do, so it trades narrow ranges in whic...

Financial Stress; TTIP Lite

The attorney general for the state of New Mexico has launched a political witch hunt into beef processing companies, claiming ranchers are hurt by their si...

Closing Futures Prices

Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...

Market Commentary

Overnight trade of grain and soy futures was not quite as frenetic as yesterday. Corn futures then traded in about an 8-cent range today, mostly to the red...

Closing Futures Prices

Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Iraq’s Kurdish wheat farmers are very upset that the government only intends to buy 500,000 MT of their 1.8 MMT production. The government says that it doe...

A Few Random Thoughts

As the new month begins, there are a number of concerns and issues related to agricultural production and/or trade.We begin the Merry Month of May, as the...

Flawed; Sour; Wrong; Double-Dealing; Implications

Japanese Deputy Prime Minister Taro Aso had earlier warned that the U.S. might not get as good a deal bilaterally with Japan than it would by simply rejoin...

How Sugar Could Spark NAFTA Renegotiations by June

The U.S. has set a hard deadline on the U.S.-Mexico sugar trade talks, backed up by a possible re-imposition of duties on Mexican sugar. Will that be the d...

Congress Strikes Deal on Government Funding Package

Congress has struck a deal on a funding bill to keep the government open through the end of FY 2017, and it also addresses many ag policy issues that WPI h...

A New Month, A New Market

Funds increased all their short positions last week in the face of what looked like a bullish weather outlook over the weekend. While it will be several we...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

The market in Spain was quiet last week with local old crop barley being the cheapest available feed grain. The feed wheat there is competitive versus corn...

Market Commentary

The funds started this week with a record-large short position in wheat, a big short in corn and moderate-to-small short positions in soybeans and soymeal...

Ignorance and Contradictions

Newly-minted USDA Secretary Sonny Perdue needs to tell his Commerce Department counterpart Wilbur Ross to mind his own portfolio. Meanwhile, former USDA Se...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Farmer selling of corn in Argentina is still very slow and centered on nearby delivery months as well as expensive versus FOB prices. Exporters are paying...

Closing Futures Prices

Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

The federal government has issued recommendations for replacement of the old Agricultural Produce Market Committee (APMC) Act. The aim is to remove the mid...

Volatility and Growth; Money, Money, Money; Crops and NAFTA

The future of Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) negotiations remains uncertain given the ample number of distractions in both Washingto...

More Things to Keep You Up at Night

There are a number of issues, many weather-related, currently affecting crops in the U.S. and around the world.The Kansas wheat crop quality tour will take...

Closing Futures Prices

WPI provides a summary of the week's futures price activity and the gains/losses experiences by grain, oilseed, and livestock markets. Additionally, today'...

Market Commentary

Markets were mostly steady overnight with KC wheat higher. Soybeans traded with 1-2 cent losses much of the day and made a run at unchanged in the last few...

The U.S. Economy in March

How will the economy’s performance in March impact domestic food demand?Economic data for March has been compiled, and it shows a solid performance. That s...

Ag Review: Can Exports Save the Dairy Industry?

  WPI Agribusiness Subsector Outlook    WPI Bull/Bear Leanings for Agribusiness in 2017 A summary and graphical depictions of WPI’s ex...

Market Commentary

Trading was notably quieter overnight and today than has been the case during much of this week. While obviously nervous, markets are not quite sure what t...

CFTC-SEC Merger Proposal Rises Again

This merger concept tends to materialize in the wake of real or perceived financial crises, and it is being heard once more following the election of a hig...

Trump’s Flip-Flop on NAFTA Withdrawal

A look at what is at stake for the meat, livestock, poultry and dairy sector with regard to NAFTA as well as if/how it might be renegotiated.As Gary Blumen...

G-33 Miscalculates; Winners and Losers; Right and Wrong

The Group of 33 developing countries complained in Geneva that the Uruguay Round imposed “inequities and imbalances” between rich and poor countries. ...

Closing Futures Prices

Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...

China In-Country Analysis

China’s average domestic corn price rose RMB 14/MT ($2.03/MT) to RMB 1,632/ MT ($237.20/MT) last week, driven by tight supplies of new corn and sever...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...

NAFTA Threat; Digitized Future

Withdrawing from NAFTA could lead to a trade war that will harm agriculture, and former Farm Bureau President Bob Stallman today emphasized a focus on impr...

Market Commentary

The day session saw trading volume fade some as the market tried to hang onto yesterday’s gains. There was more fund short covering in wheat, and those mar...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Ukraine's domestic crude sunflower oil prices remained stable last week with current offers within $820-832/MT EXW. However, they are likely to start falli...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...

Ag Weighs in on Tax Reform

Congress and the administration are preparing tax reform proposals to be considered this year. In that regard, the House Agriculture Committee convened a h...

Market Commentary

All the potential weather adversity has seemed to finally awaken fund managers holding huge short futures positions in Chicago wheat and corn as well as a...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

The MENA region has been the major destination for Black Sea wheat, but more of it is expected to flow elsewhere because of one development. Meanwhile, rep...

Confirmation Bias; Jousting Northward; Corn Irony

The Trump administration imposed punitive duties on softwood lumber imports from Canada, and some see it as an opening offensive ahead of NAFTA renegotiati...

Increasing Market Volatility

The signs of budding potential weather scares are already beginning to show, and it seems quite likely that this will be another year when futures price vo...

A Few Surprises in Canada’s Acreage Estimates

Stats Canada released its first planting intentions estimates for 2017 last Friday, and there will be some enormous acreage swings in the U.S. neighbor thi...

Exchanging Youth; Wishy-Washy Standards; Circumstance Informs

The recent U.S. National Organic Standards Board meeting reportedly ended in confusion, revealing how the use of subjective standards gives rise to philoso...

Cattle on Feed Report: Record-High Placements for March

The dynamics between fed cattle marketings and placements are analyzed with their implications for next quarters' beef demand and pricing. Feedlot turnover...

Market Commentary

One would typically assume a slow planting pace coupled with what appears to be a very wet forecast would be supportive to corn and negative to soybeans. H...

Closing Futures Prices

Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

The Argentine soybean market was very active last week as four cargoes were traded, two CNF and two FOB. One full May shipment was traded at $0.98N CNF and...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

While GOI is continuing to procure local wheat for the MY 2017/18 program, imports are still feasible despite the 10 percent duty with one particular origi...

Closing Futures Prices

WPI provides a summary of the week's futures price activity and the gains/losses experiences by grain, oilseed, and livestock markets. Additionally, today'...

Overstated and Misunderstood; Self-Defeating Ag Policy

As if he’d never paid a second of attention to bilateral trade issues before running for president, Donald Trump suddenly realizes that Canada operates a s...

Federal Funding Deadline for Government Shutdown Nears

With the deadline to pass a federal funding bill in the offing, Congress is revisiting a strategy employed in 2014 that kept the government open.A week fro...

Market Commentary

Markets were steady to slightly higher overnight and in good volume. One development then continued to pressure corn today as wheat tried to mount a brief...

A Look at U.S., Canadian and World Barley Supplies

The 31 March USDA planting intentions reports indicated notable changes ahead for U.S. barley acreage, and there are several reasons why.Barley acres in th...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...

Two Sides to Every Story

There can be no denying that today’s supply/demand fundamentals tell a very bearish story, but there are factors, both real and potential, that just might...

Market Commentary

In overnight trade, soybeans were helped by firmer Asian markets with corn and wheat prices also slightly higher. Daytime selling then pushed prices into t...

Nationalism; TTIP; VAT Benefit

Donald Trump’s effort to initiate a “Buy American; Hire American” obligation is economic nationalism at its rawest, but it is hardly unique. Nationalism Ab...

Red Meat Recap and Margin Outlook; Cattle on Feed

Last month's feeder calf placements data points to a changing supply situation for the beef market next quarter. Similarly, feedlots' fed cattle marketings...

China In-Country Analysis

China has set a goal of expanding its biofuel portfolio, not only to absorb the massive corn reserves but also to diversify its energy platform. However, i...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Turkey's recently-introduced import duty on some agricultural products from Russia has reportedly already caused some damage in the sphere of its grain and...

Market Commentary

After trading an inside day, the soybean market managed to hold onto some of its small session gains with soyoil as the engine. Meanwhile, all three wheat...

DEIP the Canucks; Trump PO’d at TPA

Canadian Ambassador to the U.S. David McNaughton may be correct that his country’s pricing policy on ultrafiltered milk may be WTO legal, but that doesn’t...

Closing Futures Prices

Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...

Uneven Outlook for U.S. Wheat Classes

The 2017/18 crop cycle will be somewhat of an historic year for U.S. wheat in that the total area planted to all classes will be the smallest since 1919. M...

Smaller Birds, Bigger Demand

Broiler slaughter weights are below year-ago levels for the first time in three years, and demand is up ahead of the traditional seasonal growth trend.Acco...

Market Commentary

Palm oil futures dropped another 1 percent overnight to a new eight-month low, which pulled soyoil futures down as well. Dalian corn and soy complex future...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

USDA-FAS indicates Turkey’s wheat stocks could drop to less than a two-week supply, the lowest level in more than 50 years. This is not totally attributabl...

Only American; State and Local; Reversals; Poor Luddites

Donald Trump’s recent reversals on foreign policy positions that he took during the campaign (NATO obsolete; Russia friend/China enemy; Syria unimportant)...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

The EU reported 231,000 MT of wheat were exported last week and once again corrected the previous week’s total. Now Turkey has been actively buying high pr...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

April and May corn basis have started to heat up in Argentina due to several factors. There are still some shorts in the market, and those with port logist...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...

Trump’s Twists; Mergers; Economy and Crops

This is a busy week with bilateral exploratory trade talks in Tokyo where American expectations are high and the Japanese are resistant as Prime Minister S...

Market Commentary

Soybeans traded 5-6 cents higher early in the Sunday evening session, but those gains couldn’t be sustained either overnight or today. Corn followed the sh...

Wheat Market Still on Life Support

The primary reason for longer-term optimism in the wheat market is that U.S. planted wheat acreage will be the smallest since 1919, and there are two numbe...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...

Import Substitution; CAP War; Back to Bite; CRISPR’s Threat

Japan is proposing to remove food products from eligibility for duty-free entry under the Generalized System of Preferences (GSP). This is intended to addr...

Closing Futures Prices

Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...

Weather Scare Season

As the 2017/18 new crop cycle gets underway in the Northern Hemisphere, it is inevitable that new weather scares will emerge to energize or torment market...

China and U.S. Meat Exports; GIPSA Rule

China will increase its meat imports this year, potentially including U.S. beef. Meanwhile, USDA action this week has further delayed the livestock marketi...

Market Commentary

Grain and soy futures markets ended this short trading week in fair fashion. Soybeans and corn closed higher, and wheat finished with the winter wheat cont...

Market Commentary

It was the day after the April WASDE, but the approaching long Easter weekend (CME grain markets are closed Friday) seemed to have had a greater impact on...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...

Trump Manipulates Currency; Government Mishandles Data

U.S. government statistical agencies would like farmers to automatically share the data they collect via their electronic precision agriculture (PA) equipm...

China In-Country Analysis

China's monthly food inflation entered negative territory in February for the first time since 2009. Meanwhile, prices for animal protein, including pork,...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian oilseed prices continued to decline overall, but Ukraine's were mostly stable with just a few drops noted along with some increases. Its crude sunf...

The April WASDE

USDA’s April WASDE unsurprisingly carried forward the theme of growing supplies of grains and soybeans in the U.S. and the entire world. While it is all to...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...

Market Commentary

 Some of USDA’s fresh numbers released in today's April WASDE were tilted more bearishly than analysts predicted, but none were extreme enough to caus...

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