By their essence, government policies subsidize or penalize various actors in the economy. Some of this will change, but the complex nature of the democrac...
Articles
Market Commentary
Traders returning from the Christmas holiday found that a measure of good cheer for market bulls had been spread around while they were away, and the overn...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
India’s capacity to crush corn for starch production could increase to 16,525 tons per day (TPD) by 2018, although that currently available is underused an...
Beef with EU; Change Agent; USDA Leadership
The U.S. won the beef hormone case against the EU seven years ago, but it has never been fully compensated - until perhaps now. Beef with EU The U.S. won t...
Ag Transition Causing Jitters
Although it is unknown at this point who will be the new USDA secretary, another cabinet nominee is adding to the nervousness felt by some aggies. Now in t...
All I Want for Christmas Is…
News is sparse on this eve of the Christmas holiday weekend. However, no one really cares about that or markets today, so perhaps a Christmas wish list is...
Market Commentary
In the soy complex, funds continued to slowly liquidate their long positions as weather in Argentina has improved. Meanwhile, wheat markets continue to be...
Oilseed Highlights
The director of Cuba’s Center for Agricultural Research of Genetic Engineering and Biotechnology (CIGB) indicates that country may begin planting GM soybea...
Christmas Wishes 2016
The current poltical trend involving a nationalist populism and demands for change (however defined) around the world combined with other events provides a...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading opened mixed, but prices soon turned slightly lower. They were then quietly lower in slack trade durig the day session until the soy comp...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Indonesia Down, India Next; Canadian Superiority
A WTO dispute settlement panel sided with the U.S. (and New Zealand) in a ruling that Indonesia’s food import licensing scheme is illegal. Washington needs...
Preview of USDA’s December Cattle on Feed and Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Reports
The dynamics between fed cattle marketings and placements are analyzed with their implications for next quarters' beef demand and pricing. Feedlot turnover...
China In-Country Analysis
Because of recent government action that is impacting Chinese crushing facilities across more than 11 provinces and regions, the outlook for the coun...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Ag Review: The Exit of Commodities Bear Market?
WPI Bull/Bear Leanings for Agribusiness A summary and graphical depictions of WPI’s expectations for future agribusiness performance. The Flour Milli...
Market Commentary
It was a quiet, low volume overnight session, and perhaps the most telling feature of today was the very narrow daily trading ranges across the board. Outs...
Proximity; Inert versus Active
There are those that recommend dispersing federal agencies across the country with the belief that their financial largess will aid more communities than j...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
While Russia's milling wheat prices decreased across all regions, they grew slightly in Ukraine (in UAH expression) because of two factors. Meanwhile, Russ...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Strong grain demand from the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) is overwhelming Russia’s port facilities, pushing the government there to expand and...
Oilseed Highlights
An Argentine government proposal would require farmers to pay royalties on patented biotech seed for three years after the initial purchase, but the seed c...
House Ag Committee Report on SNAP
House Agriculture Committee Chairman Michael Conaway’s (R-Texas) top-to-bottom review of the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), promised two...
Potential Market Movers
There are several factors that might be grain and soy market movers in the foreseeable future, but markets may also face more unanswered questions with the...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Trade Policy Lead; Japan’s Concessions; Deregulation
U.S. Commerce Secretary-designee Wilbur Ross has variously been described as a future major player, very intimately involved, or taking the lead in U.S. tr...
Market Commentary
Yesterday’s weakness carried over into the overnight session, and grain and soy markets found no comfort during the day session either. Technical traders c...
Rain in Argentina; Bitter Cold in U.S. Winter Wheat Country
It’s not often that we are talking about weather markets in the days before the Christmas holiday, but there was one of sorts today in soybeans and wheat.I...
Global Avian Influenza Outbreak Provides U.S. Export Opportunity to Korea
A major outbreak of avian influenza (AI) in Korea is restricting its domestic production to meet growing demand for broiler meat. Similar occurrences among...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
The soy complex was soft in the Sunday session and stayed that way throughout today’s trading. Needed rainfall was received in parts of Argentina, which ha...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
While the soybean market in Argentina remains quiet with no trades last week, there was demand for June at +$0.18N but no sellers. Today demand is at +$0.0...
Demagoguery; Less for More; Keep Punke
Some American cities and counties have attempted to ban the cultivation of GM crops within their jurisdiction, but China’s giant corn-growing province, Hei...
Freedom Caucus Regulatory Rollback Proposal
While it was formed to block Republican leadership from compromising with President Obama on most issues, the conservative House Freedom Caucus is now swit...
Lopsided on China; Chef Sickness; European Trouble
President-elect Donald Trump’s phone call with Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen has upset not just Beijing but China experts in Washington as well as some...
Market Commentary
Markets were mixed in relatively quiet trade overnight, and it was a low volume day with little in the way of fresh news to end the week. KC and Chicago wh...
2017 Acres and Ending Supplies
Thoughts are quickly starting to shift toward the potential for 2017 acres and how that might translate into U.S. production and ending supplies in MY 2017...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Sugar prices in Maharashtra may be dropping as new stocks become available at the market, but they could rise over the next few months because of one antic...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Oilseed Highlights
Stats Canada reports that a record 1.77 MMT (65 million bushels) of soybeans were produced in Manitoba Province this year as farmers there continue to boos...
Market Commentary
Overnight trade in grain and soy futures was seemingly frozen in place by the soaring U.S. dollar. However, trading was a bit more active during the day se...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
The Attack of the U.S. Dollar
With the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank signaling a hawkish approach to monetary policy over the next two-three years, the U.S. dollar is on a tear. However, it...
USDA Publishes Long-Time Controversial GIPSA Rules
USDA’s GIPSA rules have been released, as promised, before President Obama leaves office. The rules have 60-day comment periods, which will expire in Febru...
More Organic Grain; Last Agency Leader Named
The U.S. organic livestock products industry wants more organic certified feed, and U.S. grain growers would like to grow and sell organic grain for its pr...
Market Commentary
The grain and soy markets had little at stake in the Fed’s rate hike other than the potential impact it might have on the U.S. dollar. However, soyoil gain...
China In-Country Analysis
While last week’s imported soybean price of $432/MT was a $1/MT improvement from the previous week, the average crush margin on those imports f...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Sunflower seed bids started growing in Ukraine. They increased to $383-405/MT EXW and $407-422/MT CPT as FOB offers rose to $395-415/MT. Because of the rep...
How Trump Negotiates; China Status; Transatlantic Volatility
In what ought to be informative for agricultural trade policy specialists, President-elect Donald Trump is revealing his approach to negotiations. It is hi...
Market Commentary
The action in overnight trade, such as it was, occurred in the soy complex in response to Asian markets. As seems to be something of a pattern these days,...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Turkey has announced a new $4 billion agricultural subsidy program that will cover 19 strategic crops. However, production of one in particular is neverthe...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
A Potential Democratic Nominee for Agriculture Secretary
North Dakota Democratic Senator Heidi Heitkamp is reportedly being considered for USDA secretary. What are some of the possible calculations behind this, a...
Livestock Safe; No Tears for TPP; Only in DC
U.S. agriculture is hoping for less environmental regulation under Donald Trump’s presidency, but Barack Obama has not been totally unkind. Livestock Safe...
Oilseed Highlights
Stine Seed, an Iowa-based company, plans to offer about 200 farmers the opportunity next year to save back biotech soybean seed for replanting. The program...
Surging World Grain and Oilseed Supplies
From a strictly fundamental perspective, the U.S. and world supply/demand balance appears to be quite bearish. To be sure, there is record or near-record d...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
It is too early to determine whether Argentina will have sufficient 12 percent protein wheat to fulfill the contracts already made. The lack of demand for...
Market Commentary
Sunday markets started firm with early soybean futures trading as much as 10-11 cents higher, but that buying dissipated with all markets slightly lower to...
Other Oil Producers Join OPEC Agreement to Reduce Production
Oil markets today reacted to the latest production cutback agreement among OPEC and other oil-producing nations. The question remains whether OPEC’s plan w...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Europe’s GMO Achievement; Unsustainable
Recent action by the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) s a stunning rebuke to the critics of GM technology that despite their rants and tactics, scient...
No Letup in Export Pace
Today’s weekly export inspections report again showed very strong soybean exports for last week, but corn and wheat exports were also quite good. It’s diff...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
The milling wheat market in the Black Sea is firmer due to the stronger ruble and increasing demand from one particular country. Meanwhile, Algeria is in t...
Market Commentary
Trading volume was lethargic early today, but it improved significantly in the last hour of the session when prices started to rally. Accelerated buying in...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
As GOI has now decided to completely remove the import duty on wheat, prices have dropped slightly after moving up prior to the announcement.. With Ukraini...
USDA Report and a Few Random Thoughts
While today's USDA December WASDE did not contain any significant changes to the bottom line of U.S. ending supplies, there were some adjustments to the wo...
Boo; China Trumped; Euro Angst
After bouncing along flat to declining since Labor Day, the Dow has since taken off post-election and added nearly 8 percentage points. While Richard Madig...
Continuing Resolution in Senate After House Passage
This is the day the federal government runs out of money. Yesterday the House passed a stopgap spending bill, which includes expanded funding for farm loan...
Market Commentary
Soybean and product prices pulled back in overnight trade. There were negative influences from declines for Dalian futures prices and Malaysian palm oil. M...
Oilseed Highlights
USDA recently released its annual long-term projections for major crops, and those for soybeans can be justifiably challenged for several reasons. USDA’s L...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Red Meat Production and Trade; New EPA Administrator
While red meat production levels are staying at near-record to record levels going into the last month of the year, there has also been a notable change in...
A Fresh Look at U.S. Farms
Periodically, USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) compiles a report that profiles the U.S. farming sector. The most recent one, released earlier this we...
Trump Ag Policy; Transition; State-Owned Market Economy
Japan has now joined the U.S. and likely the EU in refusing to accept Beijing’s interpretation of WTO requirements that China now be treated as a “market e...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
China In-Country Analysis
The average domestic corn price in China retreated even further in the first week of December, dropping RMB 11/MT ($1.60/MT) to RMB 1,689/MT ($245.50/...
Slow Demand; Tricky Appointments; U.S.-EU; Dumping
Brussels is close to a free trade agreement with Tokyo, but the question is whether it will provide much of a boost to either economy. This is partly answe...
Market Commentary
Soybean and grain prices were little changed in overnight trading even though Dalian meal and soyoil futures continued their upward trek. Trading was also...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Ukraine's grain production is projected to show an increase in 2016, but the problems that traders have had transporting stocks to the seaports conti...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
In light of recent action taken by Egypt's government regarding a certain tax together with the need to purchase feed ingredients, medicines, etc. from out...
Market Commentary
In overnight trading, soybeans continued to build on Monday’s gains with fuel provided by higher prices for Dalian’s soymeal and oil as well as another sto...
Who Will Run a Trump Administration USDA?
President-elect Trump has not yet picked a nominee to lead USDA, which is likely to be producer-friendly. However, the list of potential names remains leng...
Creating a Trend; Trade and Tax Policy
With low prices now burdening growers, researchers are calculating what tweaks can be made to extract something additional from the market. However, there...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
China’s Continuing Corn Conundrum
Chinese corn reserves were built up over many years as a result of government efforts to support domestic corn prices. It is now attempting various approac...
Oilseed Highlights
The government of Ukraine plans to boost its efforts to prevent local farmers from planting GM soybeans. While no such soybean varieties have b...
Soybean Demand Not Slowing
The soybean analysis of last Friday (see Ag Perspectives, 2 December) discussed the role of emotion as a driver of the soy complex, but another factor is r...
Commerce Department Reviewing Sugar Agreement with Mexico
With a renegotiation of NAFTA high on the incoming Trump administration’s agenda, a new Commerce Department investigation may tee up sugar as one of the fi...
Market Commentary
Expanding concerns about hot, dry weather across parts of Argentina gave the soy complex new life Sunday evening after last week’s losses, and then a devel...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Brazilian farmers’ soybean sales have been significantly delayed this year due to a stronger real and weak CBOT. In the past few weeks, though, CBOT has be...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Ukrainian corn is offered at $165/MT FOB for December-February, which is roughly in line with U.S. stocks on a CNF basis to the main destinations in the Me...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Taiwan as Leverage; Bitter Spring with Mexico; Trump Gauge
The media initially accused Donald Trump of amateurism for talking to the Taiwanese president in violation of a 40-year-old protocol. It turns out, though,...
Not Much Can Stop the Soybean Market
If there has ever been a market that has begged to be sold over the past year or two, it is soybeans. In fact, most participants did exactly that, an...
Rearview Mirror Policy; Foreign Aid and Trade
A common flaw is for new farm policy to be drafted based on immediate past market experience, and that is particularly true for dairy. A key agriculture ad...
Market Commentary
Markets were mixed to slightly lower early in last night’s session, but they were trading steady to higher at the opening this morning. Corn traded higher...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
While India’s gross domestic product (GDP) was at a high of 7.3 percent in the second quarter, it is likely to be negatively impacted in the third and four...
Campaign Promises and Reality
Although President-elect Trump often railed against the Dodd-Frank legislation as a candidate and promised to do away with it, a full repeal is not likely...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Georgia Dock Price Index Suspended; Received Prices Down; China Access
According to NASS, the October Prices Received Index for agricultural production decreased 6.6 percent from September. Meanwhile, one senator wants USDA Se...
Market Commentary
Perhaps today’s market dynamics can best be described by the fact that Chicago and KC wheat futures prices posted yet more contract lows while soyoil contr...
Truth Revealed; Diverging Transatlantic Emissions
Pedro Marcilio of the Brazilian firm Participacoes SA admits that U.S. government funds have been used as production loans for Brazilian cotton farmers. No...
China In-Country Analysis
Given certain developments regarding soymeal and soyoil in November, some stockpiling in the near term makes sense. Nonetheless, the massive turnover and s...
Election Impact on the Farm Bill
A Farm Foundation debate today on prospects for the next farm bill, post the election of Donald Trump, brought much enlightenment and a variety of opinions...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy complex markets traded mostly higher during the overnight session, helped along by the macro impact of the OPEC agreement to cut production a...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Although Russian grain exports have been lagging behind last year's level, the November volume is expected to show notable growth versus the same month las...
More Beatings; China Retribution; Zombies
Mexico’s Finance Minister José Antonio Meade correctly warns that an overplayed effort to rewrite NAFTA would hurt the U.S. economy and not just his countr...
Market Commentary
After trading higher for the last seven trading days, during which the January soybean contract jumped 70 cents higher, the market finally turned in overni...
Natural Gas Overview
Warmer winter weather last year and to date this year is driving higher-than-normal natural gas storage inventories despite demand from the power sector, a...
Gleanings from USDA’s Baseline Projections
Each year since 2000, USDA has produced baseline reports that project U.S. crop acreage and supply/demand balances for wheat, corn and soybeans for the 10...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
The Egyptian government forecasts local aquaculture production, which currently meets 80 percent of the country’s consumption demand, will increase 35 perc...
Oilseed Highlights
The inability of farmers to use neonicotinoid insecticides along with poor weather in some areas resulted in EU rapeseed production falling 10.6 percent fr...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
The Black Sea milling wheat market was again firm last week on slow farmer selling and exporters’ short covering. The pace of exports from Russia remains t...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat quality has been an issue in Argentina for many years, spanning the entire supply chain. One problem is that many farmers don't know the quality of t...
Trade and Tax Policies Collision
Donald Trump complained about inequitable international tax systems during the campaign, and now congressional Republicans are entertaining a solution. How...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
January soybean futures soared to gains of 18-19 cents last night before collapsing and trading lower at 9:30 A.M. this morning. However, that weakness was...
Strange Year in Politics
Surprise election outcomes in the U.S. and Europe as well as political chaos in South America have set the stage for potentially volatile foreign exchange...
Perhaps Politics Should Be Watched Instead of Weather
It’s beginning to look like national elections around the world will be as important to the direction of the markets as weather forecasts. With several loo...
More Things to Keep You Up at Night
While the expanding dryness that is starting to affect the 2017 U.S. hard red winter wheat production region has been covered in analysis here this week, t...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Wholesale wheat prices in New Delhi, the country’s key market, surged to Rs.23,916/MT ($346/MT) on 18 November from Rs.18,858/MT ($281/MT) on 18 October. T...
Losers Pay; Message Received; Arbitrary Standards
The WTO has several problems, but an important one is its understaffed, overworked Appellate Board (AB). While two new judges have recently been appointed,...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
Soybean futures continued to set new highs for this postharvest on more evidence of no slowdown in export demand. However, it was a different story for cor...
China; More China; Food Fallacies; Inequality
Senate Agriculture Committee Chairman Pat Roberts (R-Kansas) told Agri-Pulse to “Show me a nation that cannot feed itself, and I'll show you a nation in ch...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
The Pre-Thanksgiving futures market rally did take place, but it ws not in the way traders had imagined. The EPA surprised by announcing its final Renewabl...
China In-Country Analysis
After an extremely slow start to 2016 and a modest recovery in the spring, U.S. food and agricultural exports to China have recovered nicely as a result of...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
While oilseed prices in Russia showed growth on average in the past week, those in Ukraine exhibited a different pattern in both the domestic and export ma...
EPA Announces Final Biofuel Volumes
The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) today finalized the 2017 Required Volume Obligations (RVOs) under the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) for over...
Market Commentary
It was once again a mostly green day of trading for grain and soy futures with soybeans and soymeal leading the way. The principal exceptions were soyoil a...
Economic Outlook
The supply of money held by the public has grown almost 47 percent since 2010 when compared with the size of the economy, and some estimates indicate that...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Researchers in Kenya have said that planting GM maize could save up to $90 million annually in crop losses as well as lead to an additional production of 4...
Soybean Market Exuberance
Yesterday’s soy complex market performance had many market watchers wondering what was going on. The clarity of hindsight suggests that the rally resulted...
Trump and Trade; China’s Designs; Climate Flip-Flops
Donald Trump says he will withdraw the U.S. from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) on day one of his presidency and instead "negotiate fair, bilateral tr...
Oilseed Highlights
A draft proposal submitted to the EU Commission recommends a 50 percent reduction in the use of biofuels in the transportation sector after 2020. This is b...
Market Commentary
Unusual strength in Sunday night trading gave way to a sharply higher trading session for the soy complex. U.S. exports are well above USDA projections, le...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Transition: USDA and World; Balkanized Agriculture
If many Americans barely understand why and what happened in the recent election, foreigners can be forgiven a similar challenge. International relations h...
Southern Plains Turning Dry
Crop conditions across the U.S. have been so good that there simply hasn’t been any worry about moisture levels. Meanwhile, 2016 brought record U.S. winter...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentine soybeans started this week showing weaker basis. May shipment is offered at 20 SN with demand bidding at 15 SN, and June cargo is offered at +25...
Propane Outlook for the 2016/17 Winter Season
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has issued its Winter Fuel Outlook. It includes data regarding propane, the cost of which is a a major inp...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Demand for Ukrainian wheat is still present in India. One vessel loaded in Bulgaria last week is also apparently destined there, and Russia has asked India...
Transitional Crops; Dead Zone Policy; Huge Conspiracy
The Organic and Non-GMO Forum this week highlighted the conundrum hitting U.S. farmers as consumers change their preferences. However, a new farm bill init...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
India's recent move against the country's old currency notes is having a profound effect on farmers who bring their produce to market as well as truc...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
New Strategy for the Lame-Duck Session
After seeming intent on bundling together certain regular appropriation bills as a series of “minibus” bills prior to the election, the Republican congress...
Do the Math
Analysts are already starting to consider the mix of U.S. planted acres for 2017. Those acreage projections will be used as the base for making next year''...
Market Commentary
Markets were generally mixed overnight, but they turned positive today and finished the week with moderate gains in soybeans, corn and wheat. This was an i...
Market Commentary
Trading volume remained slow early in the day session with grain and soy prices muddling around on either side of Wednesday’s closes. The biggest feature d...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Oilseed Highlights
Brazil’s biodiesel production is forecast to change notably in 2017, based partially on a revision to the required blending level for biodiesel with...
Retailers Featuring Beef; COF; Thanksgiving Dinner
With beef prices moderating from record highs in recent years, retailers are enjoying profitable margins and have returned to promoting beef with features,...
More Tales from Export Sales
U.S. corn exports deviation from historic patterns has implications for what exports will be in the rest of the marketing year. Analysis of unshipped corn...
GMO Enforcement; Natural to a Fault
Ahead of next week’s meeting of the U.S.-China Joint Commission on Commerce and Trade, 37 members of the U.S. Senate asked Obama administration negotiators...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Ukraine's milling wheat prices continued to rise (in UAH expression) due to high demand from domestic and foreign buyers. Meanwhile, Russia's grain export...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
A sudden increase in freight rates from the U.S. Gulf has made Chinese buyers nervous. U.S. FOB prices remain on par with Brazil’s, but certain issues rega...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy futures modestly extended Tuesday’s upturn in prices in slow overnight trading with several factors providing a considerable headwind that li...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
New Trade Paradigm; Lesson in Geneva; Trump Impact
The election of Donald Trump is prompting a complete rethink of U.S. trade policy - some of it reasonable, and some of it not so much. New Trade Paradigm T...
Biofortified Maize and the Politics of GMOs
Conventionally-bred biofortified crops are improving the health of millions globally but will eventually be forced to rely on GM technology. Will activists...
Ag Review: Agribusiness Margins in the Face of Uncertainty
WPI Bull/Bear Leanings for Agribusiness A summary and graphical depictions of WPI’s expectations for future agribusiness performance. The Grain Indus...
Updating the U.S. Corn Outlook
The November WASDE's surprising increase in the estimated U.S. national average corn yield warrants a fresh look at the nation's supply/demand dynamics.As...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
While the currency situation in Egypt seems to be a bit calmer this week, the general consensus among private sector importers is that grain imports will h...
Trumped Farm Bill; Margin Winners
Typically, political party insiders negotiate a “platform” of policy platitudes intended to inform voters and guide the presidential nominees on the prefer...
North Dakota Congressman Outspoken on Ag Policy
Representative Kevin Cramer (R-North Dakota) is becoming an outspoken leader in proposing new agricultural policy ideas, but his biggest reforms come in th...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy futures prices were choppy and mixed overnight with corn and soybeans lower and wheat slightly higher in quiet trade. However, the day sessio...
Oilseed Highlights
China’s Global Times, the state-run newspaper, published an editorial warning of bad consequences for the U.S. if the Trump administration imposes re...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
The exportable surpluses of milling wheat in Ukraine and Russia are estimated at 16 MMT and 30 MMT, respectively. However, weather conditions during the ne...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
Several notable factors were not sufficient on their own to bring enough buyers to the soybean market to offset the fund selling. Much of this weakness is...
Europe Trumped; Supply Destruction
Germany’s Prime Minister Angela Merkel, who set off a political eruption in Europe with her near unilateral decision on Syrian refugees, welcomed incoming...
Farm Bill Issues and the 2018 Election
With the election over and all eyes in the ag sector on the 2018 Farm Bill, it is worth looking ahead to the 2018 mid-term elections and what role they wil...
It’s All about Asia, and It Will Stay That Way
Southeast Asia is the location of nearly all of the growth and market action and will continue to be so for a long time, which is certainly no surprise to...
China In-Country Analysis
After a strong summer, U.S. pork exports to China came in at 23,905 MT for September with a total value of $50.15 million. These figures were significantly...
Market Commentary
A volatile week finished with a retreat in the soy complex, driven by rumors of China forcing a fund out of a long position on the Dalian exchange and farm...
Erroneous Trump Policy Speculation
In the aftermath of Donald Trump’s victory the whole cadre of Washington analysts, journalists and special interests are playing the speculation game...
The Week That Was
The surprising events of this week created substantial market volatility that will not soon be erased. Normally, the winter months are quiet for commodity...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
The Government of India’s surprise demonetization of the Rupee has financial impacts rippling through the Indian economy, though commodity prices remain re...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices.Note: Due to the Veterans Day holiday, the CFTC Committment of Traders data will be published Monday, 14 Nove...
Trump's USDA
The outlook for agriculture under a Trump Administration includes a move away from “foodie” issues pushed by the Obamas and farmers in prominent D.C. posit...
Into the Unknown
The election is over but the guesswork on what President-elect Trump will do upon entering the White House is just beginning. Possible issues at the forefr...
LIVESTOCK ROUNDUP: Election, WASDE and Red Meat Exports
Following Trump’s election victory, cattlemen are pledging to work with the new administration on issues from trade to sage grouse, though advancing TPP wi...
Oilseed Highlights
The big crop was made bigger by USDA’s latest report. The U.S. soybean yield is now the highest on record in the world. Argentina’s soybean crop forecast w...
Market Commentary
The soy complex took off in the overnight session, fueled by a rally in Palm Oil futures and Asian veg oil supply tightness. Corn and wheat followed soybea...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Wrong Political Lesson; Real Cheese Please
EU leaders are warning that Brexit and Trump’s victory are “warning signs” to liberal democracies though efforts to suppress such events...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russia’s grain harvest will be the largest in 38 years which sent Russian grain prices were lower this week, adding competitive fuel to world markets. Ukra...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
The record U.S. crop is stifling demand for Brazilian beans and negligible quality differences between Argentinian soybeans and those from the U.S. PNW are...
Trump Transition; Environment Election; Economy and Trump
The most shocking vote in recent history is over and efforts will begin to stitch together the Trump Administration. Other election news includes Washingto...
Market Commentary
The U.S. Presidential election and the November WASDE proved to be a vicious combination that sent markets – from corn to oil to equities – into a tailspin...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Non-Election Topics
Americans are growing weary of political discussions and are looking forward to non-election topics. Fortunately, U.S. grain exports, La Nina weather, and...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
The new floating Egyptian pound is likely to slow markets in the near term as traders and end-users adjust... Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN CO...
Oilseed Highlights
A ban on GM ingredients in animal feeds passed Poland’s lower house of parliament and, if passed in the Senate, could disrupt the nation’s animal industrie...
2018 Farm Bill Baseline Outlook
Falling crop prices and net cash farm income are juxtaposed against falling government farm program payments which will create lively debate when the new C...
New Tax Magnet; Pinging Barriers
Food may be replacing fossil fuels as the flavor of the day for taxes while the WTO’s new system for reporting regulatory barriers to trade may need to be...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
Following yesterday’s “relief rally” in equities, grain and oilseed markets exploded higher today. Malaysian palm oil and Chicago soyoil led grains higher...
Sugar Tax Election; TPP Dead; Precision Subsidies
Taxes on sugary soft drinks are on several municipal ballots tomorrow, but will they achieve their desired results? Meanwhile, TPP is practically dead and...
Another USDA Report, No Surprises Likely
The November WASDE report may be overshadowed by the election results but important international production revisions are possible. Dry weather in South A...
Lame Duck Agenda
Tomorrow’s elections, for both the U.S. President and various Congressional seats, has strong implications on what will be accomplished during the coming l...
China In-Country Analysis
China’s bifurcated corn market continues with northeastern prices falling and southern prices rising on supply tightness. Chinese soybean crushing margins...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Black Sea wheat prices are firming and offers in Ukraine are difficult to find while Russian prices have increased $10 in one month. Black Sea corn markets...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
Weekend election news sent outside markets sharply higher while fund buying boosted the soy complex. Corn and wheat markets were softer despite large volum...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
The market yard price of corn in Nizamabad has dropped 11.06 percent from the start of the season to $201/MT, and the NCDEX spot price there also decreased...
Farm Groups Start Asking Questions About Next Farm Bill
The 2014 Farm Bill doesn’t expire until 2018, but deliberations on the next one will start in earnest when the new Congress convenes in January 2017. In pr...
Market Commentary
Every market has been very tentative this week, and today was no exception. Trading volume was average ahead of the weekend and the U.S. presidential elect...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
U.S. Winter Wheat Acres Going Lower
Record hard red winter wheat yields are not enough to keep 2016 winter wheat plantings from declining, and there are several reasons for the drop in acreag...
Oilseed Highlights
The government of Malaysia today announced it would boost the mandatory biodiesel blend requirement on 1 December. While it will rise from 7 to 10 percent...
Uncertainty; Too Many Cooks
Global economic growth and trade have been slower in recent years, and Steven J. Davis of the University of Chicago can tell you why. Policy Uncert...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Free Trade and the Disbelievers
Distrust of trade agreements is a symptom of a growing, classic populist belief that the trade deck is stacked in favor of big multinational corporations a...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy markets appear to be adopting a cautious approach to next Tuesday’s election and next Wednesday’s November WASDE. Fund managers are taking so...
Managing the Pork Supply; Red Meat Production
With hog slaughter up this year, there is an excess of pork on the market that will affect prices, especially going into the Thanksgiving holiday when reta...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian grain markets again followed the trends of previous weeks as milling grain prices continued to grow. Meanwhile, Russia exported 354,700 MT of grain...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentina remains active in the new crop soybean market. Its last trade was performed yesterday at $0.96 SN CNF for June shipment, and offers keep going lo...
Creating Competitors; Obesity; TPP Votes; Outlook
As net agricultural exporting countries have worked to improve their access to foreign markets, the less competitive nations have increased their efforts t...
Market Commentary
Perhaps the most interesting feature from the overnight trading sessions so far this week is that while trading volume for grains and the soy complex has b...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Egypt has set up a new wheat import inspection system that seems to be giving some confidence to traders and tender participants. It will be under the auth...
Oilseed Highlights
With Chinese investors increasingly soured on stocks, they have shifted to other sectors such as calligraphy, antiques, art and commodities. One target of...
Fire Hakim
Conventional agriculture is accustomed to seeing the distortions professed about biotechnology by anti-GMO activists, but reading such in the New York Time...
Protein Rebound
Protein is trending again among diet fads and nutritional advice, but per capita consumption has been moving downward, largely due to retail prices. Howeve...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Potential Market Movers
With the fall harvest so far along the downhill slope, it is a good time to step back and take a look at things that might become potential market movers i...
Market Commentary
The latent bullish trends that the soybean and corn markets were working to establish got blown apart today, and the technical momentum is now pointed down...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
More Things to Keep You Up at Night
Last week's U.S. export inspections were again very big last week, and that highlights the ability to move grain and oilseeds from the interior to export f...
Soybean Economy
The last quarter's GDP growth was the highest since the third quarter of 2015 and more than twice the average rate for this year’s first two quarters. One...
Market Commentary
The grain and oilseed markets were quietly mixed in overnight trading. Wheat was actually the upside leader last night and today. Corn and soybeans were sl...
It’s Hard to Make Some People Happy
Ironically, the most protected industry in U.S. agriculture is complaining that its farmers are disadvantaged, and it makes an emotional appeal with an eco...
China In-Country Analysis
With the landed price of imported soybeans rising to RMB 2,935.74/MT ($433/MT) last week, oil and meal prices were increased. Despite that, the average cru...
CETA’s Meaning; Signs of EU Change; Win Win
By successfully pushing through the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) with Canada, EU officials showed more moxie than their American count...
What Might 2017/18 Look Like?
Estimates of what U.S. farmers might plant in 2017 are already emerging, although it is very early to play this game as the 2016 corn and soybean harvests...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
India's peanut-in-shell MSP for the 2016/17 season was fixed at $629/MT in June 2016. However, GOI’s first advanced estimates of September 2016 have projec...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Food Price Deflation Reflects Commodity Markets
Yesterday USDA released its Food Price Outlook Report for September, which is based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) from the Bureau of Labor Statistics,...
Market Commentary
Markets were slightly lower overnight with no fresh news to push prices higher heading into one of the last harvest weekends of this year. Wheat still has...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading built on the momentum provided by yesterday’s firmer closes. The day session saw prices mostly stay in the green, although some choppines...
CETA Angst; Nuking Equality
Canada is a small country next to the EU, but at this time it shares its head of state with the Brexit redcoats. Perhaps this is behind the fact that nothi...
Trends in World Trade
If U.S. grain and soybean exports are of key importance to futures market action, it follows that world trade in these commodities is as well.We have often...
Oilseed Highlights
The National Assembly of France today rejected a Green Party-proposed amendment to the 2017 budget bill, which the group had sought as a way to address its...
Cattle on Feed; Cash-Fat Cattle Market; R-CALF Hearing; Arby’s New “Game”
The dynamics between fed cattle marketings and placements are analyzed with their implications for next quarters' beef demand and pricing. Feedlot turnover...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Ukraine's mllling wheat prices increased, mainly due to international factors such as the higher purchase price on the GASC tender and lower-than-forecast...
Dumb Parents; Gibberish Labeling; WTO and Wallonia
The New York State Congress of Parents and Teachers has apparently decided to jump the shark by literally opposing GMOs in school meals, citing overwhelmin...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentina again traded a full May shipment last week at +99 SN CNF China, a decrease from the last trade at +110 SN for an April shipment. Considering that...
Market Commentary
Futures prices found buyers early during the overnight trading session, and they began to edge higher with the soy complex in the lead. The green numbers c...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy futures prices were mixed, but little changed in rather quiet trade overnight. What excitement there was came from Malaysian palm oil, which...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Oilseed Highlights
The All India Poultry Exporters Association wants the government to either ban the importation of chicken meat produced with biotech feed ingredients or al...
Election 2016: A Look Two Weeks Out
The U.S. election is two weeks from today, so this seems like as good a time as any for a preview. Voters will choose a president, all 435 House members an...
Corn Market Dynamics
Having become confident that it has a good handle on total U.S. corn supplies for 2016/17, the market has already begun to switch its focus to the next two...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
The Kenyan government has announced that it is raising the National Cereals and Produce Board (NCPB) purchase price for maize by about 22 percent. However,...
Terminology; EU Irony; Trade De-Partisanization
Voting in the U.S. Congress had been increasingly partisan with Republicans favorable and Democrats opposed to free trade deals. Now the 2016 presidential...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
Markets opened slightly lower Sunday evening, but it didn’t take long before soybean futures turned positive. November soybean futures traded as much as 16...
Not Again in My Lifetime
Many farmers across the northern Plains, the new Corn Belt, are saying that they won’t see yields like this year's corn crop again in their lifetimes...
Growth in Cheaper U.S. Crude Oil
As the market recovered this year, there has been growth in certain short positions on the part of producers and merchants. This could well suggest that U...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
The market in Romania and Bulgaria is very quiet. While the domestic wheat price has increased about $10 over the last three weeks, farmers are still reluc...
Minority Rights; Anti-Biotech Nonsense
The relative power balance of minority opinion versus the majority is the tipping point between successful democracy and future Brexits. Extreme Minority R...
China In-Country Analysis
China’s domestic corn prices showed some volatility last week between northern and southern provinces as deep corn processors in the latter lacked sufficie...
RVOs Rule Proposal Sent to White House OMB
On Wednesday of this week, the U.S. EPA submitted its proposed RVOs rule for biofuel use under the RFS to the White House OMB. The question that remains is...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Keeping food prices down is key for Indian households. In order to do that and also maintain low inflation, the government has taken a step that would allo...
Market Commentary
Markets were steady in quiet overnight trade. Corn and soybean futures gained back some of yesterday’s losses to start today’s action. Corn was steady to h...
Mistruths about Trade
Washington’s famous think tanks have opined on the future of trade policy, and the analysis is far more thoughtful than the complete falsehoods asser...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
The Demand Train Still Gaining Momentum
It is still tough to find anyone who is even leaning toward the bullish side of the ledger, but it is also becoming difficult to ignore the building demand...
Oilseed Highlights
While USDA is forecasting a record U.S. soybean yield this year of 54 bushels/acre (3.63 MT/hectare), there is a great deal of evidence that it may be even...
The La Nina Dance
After one of the strongest El Ninos on record was officially declared over last June, the CPC issued a La Nina watch. That was then cancelled in early Sept...
Market Commentary
The overnight session was a relatively quiet one with corn and soybean prices trading a little higher and following up on yesterday’s firm finish while whe...
Hog Backlog; Cattle on Feed; Cattle Futures Contract
Last month's feeder calf placements data points to a changing supply situation for the beef market next quarter. Similarly, feedlots' fed cattle marketings...
Oilseed Highlights
While USDA is forecasting a record U.S. soybean yield this year of 54 bushels/acre (3.63 MT/hectare), there is a great deal of evidence that it may be even...
India’s Chutzpah; Ignoring Elephant; Regime Change
Agriculture specifically is unlikely to be much affected by the U.S. election, but there are tangential issues with implications for the sector. Chutzpah T...
Oilseed Highlights
While USDA is forecasting a record U.S. soybean yield this year of 54 bushels/acre (3.63 MT/hectare), there is a great deal of evidence that it may be even...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Despite the continuous drop in basis in the U.S., Brazil and Argentina have decided to compete by lowering their levels against USG and PNW. The main compe...
Clinton versus Trump on Ag; Chemo-Marketing
Differences, nuances and agreement marked the outcome of a session today between former USDA Deputy Secretary Kathleen Merrigan representing the Clinton ca...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Feed wheat and feed barley FOB offer prices decreased in Ukraine but remained steady in other terms of trade. Meanwhile, milling wheat bid prices grew on t...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy prices traded back and forth in overnight trading. Corn and wheat futures traded unchanged to a little lower, while soybeans were slightly hi...
USDA Trying to Wrap Up Six Years’ Work on GIPSA Rule
USDA has sent the White House OMB a draft of new livestock marketing and contracting regulations under GIPSA. Some of the controversial provisions in the o...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Soybean Market Dynamics
One might ask why the big crop/big demand year of 2016/17 is much different from 2015/16 when there was an almost record U.S. soybean crop absorbed by then...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Tanzania reports that its first official GM maize field trials, which involve a white drought-resistant variety, began last week and are expected to take a...
Oilseed Highlights
U.S. farmers are in the process of harvesting the largest soybean crop ever along with a record yield. In many states, they are seeing yields far above ave...
Market Commentary
Markets traded both sides during the overnight session as wheat, corn and soybean prices held near the high ends of their recent trading ranges. After grai...
Random Thoughts from a North Asian Wheat Conference
From China’s non-WTO compliance to “gluten free” marketing and excess shuttle-train capacity, a recent wheat conference for North Asian wheat buyers reveal...
China In-Country Analysis
Falling soymeal stocks and increasing soyoil prices, combined with inexpensive imported soybeans, have boosted Chinese crushing margins recently. U.S. soyb...
Market Commentary
Soybeans rallied strongly today as global vegoil prices spiked early. NOPA’s report highlighting ending stocks and crushing rates added to the bullish fuel...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Black Sea wheat and corn prices are firmer this week, driven by the futures rallies in Paris, Chicago, and other global markets. Additionally, Ukrainian ra...
The Cost of the Coming Winter
NOAA’s forecast that the coming winter will be colder than last year’s means energy costs will be on the rise. Livestock producers in the Midwest will cons...
Slow Chickens II; Irreversible Meaninglessness; Selective Overcapacity Policy
Development organizations are pushing for Africans to use indigenous chickens rather than improved, fast-growing flocks. Now, European animal rights campai...
Wheat, Wheat Everywhere, but Not a Drop to Eat
U.S. wheat ending supplies and another record world wheat crop in 2016 are all being affected by one particular issue.The USDA quarterly stocks report rele...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
GOI has undertaken the task of integrating the Regulated Agriculture Market Yards, which provide pricing for farmers’ produce bought in the market yard. Th...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
After yesterday’s highly anticipated October WASDE led to futures prices ultimately sliding lower, trading volume during the overnight trading session was...
Implications of USDA-Projected Dairy Growth
Over the past 15 years, U.S. dairy exports have expanded more than fivefold, reaching a record $7.1 billion in 2014, and the longer-term USDA 10-year forec...
Market Commentary
Strong upward price action occurred in the grains and oilseed complex today as bullish export news outweighed the week's record-breaking supply news. Fund...
Ag Review: Industry Insights and Outlook for Q4 2016
The Grain Industry Farmland values have been among the last to experience the impact of low commodity prices, but the downward pressure has now begun. Oils...
Federal Preemption Needed
Massachusetts may soon join California in dictating livestock production methods in a manner that greatly disrupts the farming industry. This is all certai...
Market Commentary
After yesterday’s highly anticipated October WASDE led to futures prices ultimately sliding lower, trading volume during the overnight trading session was...
Market Commentary
After yesterday’s highly anticipated October WASDE led to futures prices ultimately sliding lower, trading volume during the overnight trading session was...
The Aftermath of the October WASDE
While the October 2016 WASDE contained no fundamental surprises, it did not lack for items of interest.As noted yesterday, the October 2016 WASDE contained...
Oilseed Highlights
Yesterday’s USDA report indicates that U.S soybean exporters and processors are going to have a large supply to work with in the year ahead, and one partic...
Brazil GMO Seed; Africa Led Astray; Polling Now
Brazilian Secretary of Agribusiness and International Relations Odilson Ribeiro Silva has approved the Chamber of Foreign Trade allowing the importation of...
USDA Buying More Cheese; Trade in 2017
China’s enormous influence on the pork market is now greater than ever as USDA is projecting that the country will account for more than 25 percent of glob...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
GI Challenge; Funding Politics
The Canada-EU Trade agreement is on the docket for discussion this week in Brussels, and the U.S. dairy industry is now reportedly preparing to chall...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
The old crop corn market remains totally quiet with a few sellers ready to trade at $0.90 over December futures for October and November and with a few cen...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
USDA’s October production and supply/demand estimates were relatively close to expectations and certainly not bullish. In the immediate wake of today's rep...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russia's domestic prices for 3rd and 4th grade soft mililng wheat increased for the most part during 3-9 October, and 5th grade feed wheat prices dropped a...
Market Commentary
Markets did very little on this day before the release of the October WASDE. Prices traded on both sides of yesterday’s closes and mostly settled with only...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
High maize prices in South Africa have in turn pushed up local poultry prices, leading to an expected notable increase in poultry imports this year and an...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Some Pre-Report Thoughts and Other Matters
Markets are of course fixated on tomorrow’s WASDE from USDA and the updated yield and production estimates for the U.S. 2016 corn and soybean crops it will...
Oilseed Highlights
It is well known that people tend to eat higher quality diets containing more animal protein and vegoils when they migrate from farms to the cities. That h...
Ag and Energy Commodities Holding Back Mounting Inflationary Pressures
Last month the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released the August update of the Consumer Price Index (CPI), and it would appear that agriculture and energ...
TPP More Likely; No Food Policy Election
Conventional wisdom holds that when both major presidential candidates oppose the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), it makes congressional consideration and...
China In-Country Analysis
Despite flooding in several provinces over the summer, there was a drought in Heilongjiang, the bedrock of China’s domestic soybean industry, which has imp...
Food Policy Poll
Given the growing opinion in support of regulation, perhaps the most interesting poll result was when participants were asked to rank their level of trust...
October USDA Reports
The trade talk has been about better soybean and smaller corn yields than expected since these harvests got underway. The latter yield, though, would have...
Policy and Technology
Much the way Washington and Brussels help their respective main aircraft builders, Boeing and Airbus, the EU and the U.S. subsidize their respective agricu...
Market Commentary
Corn was mostly steady overnight, but it turned higher today and closed quite strong. The corn market still has a significant fund short position. Meanwhil...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
The wheat market in Romania and Bulgaria remains very quiet as farmers are not selling at current market prices. They are still holding a large volume of s...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Trade Adjustment; Marshmallows; Chem Attack
One U.S. agency's review of restrictions on a particular herbicide and state action regarding chemical spraying ultimately signal that food security...
Market Commentary
Markets traded steady to fractionally higher overnight in very light volume. Today saw a consolidation type of trading ahead of the weekend and before next...
More Things to Keep You Up at Night
Record soybean yields and soybean markets that have held relatively strong have turned the Corn Belt (and northern Plains) farm economic outlook from grim...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
India's domestic oil industry had asked GOI to raise both the duty on imported oil along with the differential between the crude and refined oils duties to...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Farm Program Spending Outpacing Other Entitlement Programs
USDA announced this week that more than $7 billion will be paid out in farm support payments under the new ARC and PLC programs versus approximately $5 bil...
Oilseed Highlights
Reports of very high soybean yields across the Midwest continue. However, it also is clear that many farmers saw substantial losses this year because of a...
Harvesting Cash from Naiveté
By awakening consumers to the mundanity of the food business, one food critic and his ilk have spawned new Big Ag profits with meaningless but profitable p...
Market Commentary
Once again, overnight trade in grain and soy futures was characterized by low volume and limited price movement. The day session found more selling pressur...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
An Anniversary of Sorts
Much has happened in the 20 years that have passed since the first genetically modified (GM) soybean crop was harvested in commercial quantities by U.S. fa...
Comeback from Avian Flu; Hogs and Pigs; FSIS Label Guidance
The two commodity sectors impacted by highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) have made a comeback. Meanwhile, USDA’s FSIS has released a guidance documen...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy markets were mixed overnight in slow trade. Prices traded both sides of yesterday’s closes but never moved very far from them. However, the d...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Ukraine's milling wheat market was rather stable last week. Domestic traders’ bids grew because of rather active demand, mainly in the bottom segment, to $...
Cold War in Economics
In the post-Cold War through pre-Great Recession timeframe, the Western “neoliberal consensus” for economic policy took over the world like a tsunami. Now...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
There were almost no soybean trades in Argentina this past week. Demand has been showing up mostly for November and December in search of cheap offers. How...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
Corn futures prices were buoyed by the market’s ability to once again trade and close above the $3.43 technical support level for December corn. Meanwhile,...
Oilseed Highlights
The government of Argentina yesterday announced the soybean export tax will not be reduced by 5 percent as promised on 1 January due to financial difficult...
China Risks Relations; Future of China Relations
China seeks treatment as a market economy, and yet its top-down policies such as the Textile Industry Development Plan reveal the extent to which it will t...
A Snapshot of the U.S. Wheat Outlook
For the past several years, the U.S. wheat supply/demand outlook and U.S. wheat prices did not mean a great deal to the world market. Cheaper wheat was ava...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
While the recent ergot issue in Egypt appears to be resolved, the government's announcement this past week regarding changes to the origin and destination...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Trump’s Trade Policy: A Tax Increase
A white paper with a detailed breakdown of Donald Trump’s economic plan was released last Thursday by two of his campaign’s senior economic policy advisors...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
The wheat market in Romania and Bulgaria is extremely quiet. No trades have been reported in recent weeks except for one Moroccan tender as farmers are unw...
Low Substance; Fig Leaf; Labels; GMO Embargo
In hopes of spurring support for the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), some U.S. agriculture groups highlight the fact that the EU is continuing to negotiat...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
While markets were steady overnight in light volume trade, corn and soybean markets started to firm at today’s opening. Wheat, on the other hand, couldn’t...
Upon Further Review
The 30 September USDA quarterly stocks reports didn’t contain any hidden bullish or bearish news for the corn and soybean markets. However, there a few iss...
Pressure on the Biodiesel Tax Credit
At the moment, there is political inertia on a tax extender package. In part, this is because last year’s Protecting Americans from Tax Hikes (PATH) Act ad...
China In-Country Analysis
With the Mid-Autumn Harvest Festival in close proximity and the National Day scheduled to run through the first week of October, market data has been limit...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
At the start of the wheat season, it was thought in India that international prices could rise if large volumes of wheat were to be imported. That has not...
Market Commentary
Markets were mixed to lower overnight in light trading volume. Wheat and corn opened lower this morning ahead of the USDA reports, but the soy complex star...
USDA Quarterly Stocks Report
The September WASDE soybean ending supply estimate was 195 million bushels, and the trade was looking at today’s stocks number to see if carry-in soybean s...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Crop Insurance Worries for Wheat
The RMA employs the FN rating to reduce the APH yields used for crop insurance policies. This year’s problem with the FN scores is in addition to the low y...
Corn Fight; Leverage; Aggie at EPA
African countries attending a conference this past week in Washington on the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) pushed back on a U.S. suggestion tha...
Hogs and Pigs Report; Cold Storage
USDA will release its quarterly Hogs and Pigs report tomorrow. If expectations bear out, slaughter capacity could become very tight in November and Decembe...
Market Commentary
Trading ahead of tomorrow’s USDA reports produced mixed results. Those reports coincide with the end of the quarter for noncommercial-managed funds, a time...
New Trade Policy; Stop the Pests
In a critique of U.S. trade policy, Congressman Sander Levin (D-Michigan) correctly asserts that the public perception problem with trade will not go away...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Odds and Ends
The eve of another important report from USDA, namely tomorrow’s 1 September quarterly stocks plus the final small grain production summaries, presents a g...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Fracking and Farming; Wasted Effort; Megafarms
Opponents key in on two or three generalized arguments against it, but there are dozens of specific outcomes of the TPP that are better than the status quo...
Market Commentary
Crude oil’s excitement of today did not spill over into grain or soy complex markets. Meanwhile, soybean export sales totaling 343,000 MT and the reports o...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Although the Russian grain market continued to follow the trends of the previous week, there were two new influencing factors. Meanwhile, an analysis of 20...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentina's soybeans showed some movement this week in the new crop market with one cargo traded at +43 SN for a 15 April position. Meanwhile, Brazil...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Kenya reports that local maize and maize meal prices are dropping slightly as the local harvest has boosted supplies. However, maize imports are still need...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Urban Pastoralization; Healthy Labeling
In an effort to get more concrete poured on top of soil, the U.S. has had rural development subsidies for decades, and now there will be the opposite, urba...
Oilseed Highlights
The U.S. soybean harvest has been delayed by heavy rains, and the key states affected include North Dakota, Iowa, Illinois, Minnesota, and South Dakota. Wh...
From the Campaign Trail
Last night’s first presidential debate of the general election campaign did not include any mention of agriculture or agricultural policy – as was to be ex...
Wheat’s Struggles
Historically small wheat acreage should result in sharply reduced production, which would seem likely to help lower burdensome wheat supplies for 2017/18...
Market Commentary
Corn futures prices traded lower early to near a multi-week low and then recovered to finish with a gain of a couple of cents. The day’s trading range was...
China In-Country Analysis
The estimated nationwide soymeal inventory totaled 512,000 MT as of 23 September, down 40,000 MT (-7.26 percent) from the week before and 467,200 MT lower...
More Things to Keep You Up at Night
Shuttle rail secondary market values have been rising for weeks and are now trading at a $1,000-2,000/car premium to tariff for October and November. They...
Abenomics; Trump Deficit; CAP Conflict
Japanese Prime Minister Shinzō Abe introduced today his envisioned economic policy. It is mostly a rehash of prior commitments but now with a $277 billion...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
Corn steadily lost ground today on fund selling and some expectations that farmers will have to sell some bushels as the corn harvest starts to gain some m...
What the Fed Likely Will Do
Although the Fed did not increase interest rates at its last meeting, just as it hasn’t since December 2015, certain factors suggest a rate hike will very...
DDGS Duties; Rulemaking; Fat; Debate
The announcement that Beijing will impose a 33.8 percent antidumping duty on imports of DDGS from the U.S. was not a surprise, although there is also anoth...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Weather Still a Factor
It has been an interesting year in crop weather - to say the least - and somewhat ironic that instead of hot, dry weather being the problem around the worl...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
The first advance estimates for India’s 2016/17 kharif production have been released, and they indicate a bumper crop this year. However, the trade believe...
Market Commentary
Markets were weak overnight with soybeans leading prices lower, and that weakness continued into today’s session. There was some talk about soybean/corn sp...
Brinksmanship on the FY 2017 Continuing Resolution
Emergency funding for the water crisis in Flint, Michigan, has now bogged down the CR and is leading to the political brinksmanship in Congress. However, a...
Oilseed Highlights
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Chinese Premier Li Keqiang jointly announced yesterday in Ottawa that the two countries have reached an agreemen...
Market Commentary
Markets firmed during the overnight session following yesterday’s mild sell-off. November soybeans finished the overnight session up 3¾ cents as tropical o...
Chinese Ban on U.S. Beef Update; Cattle on Feed; Lawsuit against Chicken Producers
The dynamics between fed cattle marketings and placements are analyzed with their implications for next quarters' beef demand and pricing. Feedlot turnover...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Bee Sting; Africa; USDA Leadership
USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack reportedly recommended that his successor be a former governor. It is an understandable intuitive viewpoint, but not one held up...
U.S. Export Pace Substantially Higher Than Last Year
Only when examining the actual numbers can the magnitude of the increase in soybean, corn and wheat export sales from last year be realized. However, there...
Market Commentary
Corn traded a narrow range today before settling a half-cent to a penny lower. New fundamental news is hard to come by at this point, and today’s weak acti...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
The Argentine soybean market mostly continued in the pattern set the previous week with old crop offers at $1.25 over November futures. However, new crop o...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
The Russian Grain Union president has noted a specific currency change as a contributing factor to the country strengthening its position as one of t...
Misdirected Blame; Reap What’s Sown
The UN adopted a declaration calling for all nations to address the problem of rising antibiotic resistance, and agriculture got fingered heavily. However,...
Blame Game; Unsolicited Advice
A provision in the 2014 Farm Bill requires the U.S. EPA to create an advisory committee of agricultural specialists to advise the agency’s scientists befor...
Winter Wheat Crop Revenue Insurance Prices
U.S. producers can participate in a crop revenue insurance program, Crop Revenue Coverage (CRC), with premiums subsidized by the federal government. Now th...
Oilseed Highlights
The aquaculture sector has long relied heavily on fish meal as a prime source of protein in its feeds. The supply is decreasing, however, so it will need t...
Market Commentary
Strong buying occurred in soybeans today with the November contract closing up 17¼ cents today. Both soymeal and soyoil offered early support as did higher...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
The fallout from Egypt's new zero ergot standard for wheat continues with no offers for its recent tenders and confusion regarding shipments purchased unde...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Monetary Policy and Farm Income
The overall economy is ready for a federal funds rate hike, which will be an impact on farm income that is already down with crop prices and debt that is s...
Short-Term CR Moving Forward In Senate
Federal government funding is approaching a crucial deadline with the current fiscal year ending on 30 September, and the Senate is expected to pass a CR t...
China In-Country Analysis
Although U.S. corn exports to China saw a modest uptick in July at a total 59,078 MT with FOB port departure value of $9.65 million after consecutive month...
Mergers and Opposition
Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) hosts a hearing tomorrow on the proposed mergers occurring right now in the agribusiness sector...
Durum Production Big, But There Is a Problem
Canada is expected to harvest a record durum crop of nearly 7 MMT while the U.S. crop is the biggest in years at 2.5 MMT. However, a certain issue wi...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
Soybean futures led the charge higher overnight on follow-through buying after last Friday’s strong closes. Corn then faced a problem similar to soybeans’...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
While the Ukrainian feed wheat price lost about $12 during the past three weeks, the market in Bulgaria and Romania showed a different price change as a re...
Ag Mergers Impact Washington’s K Street
Lower crop prices and farm income together with pressure for new products are leading to a wave of consolidation in the ag sector. One of the little-discus...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
High prices of pulses, the main vegetable protein for Indians, have led to higher wholesale and retail inflation. This has prompted GOI to enact certain me...
Market Commentary
Markets were mostly lower overnight on relatively light volume. When today’s session opened, however, funds then embarked on a buying program in corn and s...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Dubious Wisdom; Trumped-Up Problem; Misinterpretation
The U.S. Food & Drug Administration is like most government bureaucracies in that it is slow-moving and over-reaching. However, Donald Trump’s call thi...
El Nino/La Nina? Not So Fast
The headline story of last spring and shortly thereafter was the record-strong El Nino and its potential impact on North American crop production this summ...
Cost of Free IP; Bear Market Strategies
The United Nations High Level Panel on Access to Medicines released its report this week advising that like poor countries, middle-income countries should...
Oilseed Highlights
The General Court of the European Union today issued a ruling on the EU’s anti-dumping duties on biodiesel imports from Argentina and Indonesia, and this c...
WASDE; Dairy Herd Culling Settlement; EU Pork Production
While U.S. pork production for 2016 is reduced on expectations of slightly lower carcass weights for the third quarter, there is a different scenario in th...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy prices firmed a bit overnight as trading volume improved from the low levels of the past two days. After trading resumed in the day session,...
Mergers and Acquisitions
Yesterday’s announcement that Bayer AG was acquiring Monsanto has set off a firestorm of mostly critical reaction. However, there is a key motivator behind...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Ukraine's domestic sunflower seed prices increased mainly due to devaluation of the national currency. Meanwhile, domestic rapeseed prices rose as buyers c...