Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Articles
TPP; Food Demand; Turnips
France’s National Association of Food Industries (ANIA) has reportedly asked the public's opinion about what they want from food processors and retailers...
TPP Text Released
The text of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement was released to commodity groups today along with a slew of promotion materials from USDA and the...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Because of the lack of rains, the condition of Russia’s winter crops worsened. Thus, the volume in weak condition grew to 25 percent compared with 16 perce...
Biofuel Storm
Historically, it has been the petroleum industry griping about ethanol, but now some supporters of advanced biofuels contend that the conventional part of...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Cash basis could rebound in South American soybean markets if threatening weather develops and that stimulates world end users to purchase beyond the spot...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
The overnight futures session produced slightly lower prices for wheat and corn but slightly higher prices for soybeans. The grains were under pressure fro...
Market Commentary
U.S. wheat futures seemingly trade in a world of their own. Yesterday Chicago wheat lost 14 cents or so, and today it regained 8 cents or more. Why did tho...
Oilseed Highlights
Brazil's ABIOVE today raised its forecast for the country's 2016 soybean crop from 97.8 MMT to 98.6 MMT. That is less than the forecasts of USDA and the Br...
Searching for a Price Driver
The futures market’s choppy price action within relatively narrow price bands for the last several weeks is a sign that it is searching for price direction...
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
Turkey reports that this year’s wheat production will be a record 23 MMT, but imports will continue. This is because quite a bit of the crop is of lo...
Aussie Future; TPP; Ex-Im; WOTUS
The Australian government has produced a paper that details a plan for ensuring the success of that nation’s farmers in the years to come. It stresses the...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
10-Year Review of RFS
The House Science Space and Technology Committee’s Oversight and Environment subcommittees today held a hearing to review the cost and benefits of the Rene...
China In-Country Analysis
The national and state government policies of subsidizing deep corn processors that purchase domestic stocks helped drive up the utilization rates of that...
Senate Proposals to Block WOTUS
The U.S. Senate now has two proposals with different approaches that would stop the rule promulgated by the U.S. EPA and the Army Corps of Engineers known...
Nitrates: Deception all Around
The “Physicians Committee for Responsible Medicine” (PCRM) filed a petition with USDA that calls for an end to the distribution of processed meats through...
U.S. Corn and Wheat Export Sales Pace in Trouble
U.S. corn exports deviation from historic patterns has implications for what exports will be in the rest of the marketing year. Analysis of unshipped corn...
Market Commentary
Technically speaking, there is nothing in the chart patterns of soybeans, soyoil or soymeal that would stop a limited selloff from occurring. The best thin...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
The EU's 2015/16 wheat ending stocks could reach a record 20 MMT compared with 2014/15's 13.5 MMT. The balance sheet suggests that the EU should use...
Market Commentary
Wheat futures were firm again today and are once more pushing toward the top end of the recent range in Chicago December futures. That contract tested $5.0...
Crop Insurance Spared Budget Cuts
Largely through the bipartisan efforts of the House and Senate Ag Committees' leadership, crop insurance cuts in the two-year budget agreement will be spar...
Fed Rates; India Needs; Migratory Influences
Government officials at this week’s ninth ministerial level meeting of the India – U.S. Trade Policy Forum agreed to continue talking, but independent Indi...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
India's spot corn price has stabilized over the past few days in most markets, but today's average price was still lower than on 1 October. Meanwhile...
More Things to Keep You Up at Night
It was an interesting week in the markets for several reasons that ranged from U.S. harvest-related developments to a policy change abroad and an une...
Data; Litters; Children; Enemies
China’s relaxation of its one-child policy has some speculating about future food demand impacts. However, there are several mitigating factors. Data Smorg...
Oilseed Highlights
Brazil’s government has approved the sale and use of higher biodiesel blends in order to address air pollution problems in big cities as well as concerns o...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Canada and COOL
Canadian pork producers are setting an agenda and expectations for the new Liberal Party government to be convened by Justin Trudeau, and trade is the key...
Market Commentary
Overnight price action for grain and soy futures contracts was mixed with most trading both sides in a modest way. Volume was not impressive. The day sessi...
China and Soybeans
Part of China’s October buying burst can be attributed to compensating for the slow pace of its new crop 2015/16 soybeans purchases during prior months. No...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
It is entirely possible that Argentina's peso could decline 25 percent from the current official exchange rate by the end of 2015. If so, that countr...
Market Commentary
Grain, soybean and soymeal prices weakened in moderate overnight trading, and that carried over to the day session. In the absence of fresh inputs to direc...
Rice; Insurance Bellyache
Japan agreed to a side letter with the U.S. under the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) that defines the way in which it will manage a tariff-rate quota (tra...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Deputy Minister of Agriculture Sergey Levin noted in a speech today that the ministry may reconsider the size of the wheat export duty or cancel it...
Oilseed Highlights
The Indonesian government's director general of food crops indicates that imposition of a 10 percent tariff on soybeans is being considered as a way to enc...
Budget Showdown over Crop Insurance
Last night the White House and congressional leadership came to terms on a budget agreement regarding a continuing resolution (CR) through the end of FY 20...
Indonesia; Antibiotics; Ex-Im; WOTUS
Supporters have managed to outmaneuver opponents and get reauthorization of the Export-Import Bank back on track in the U.S. Congress. Indonesian Dr...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
A Few Comments as October Winds Down
We are not sure that history will single out October 2015 as being particularly notable, but it has been a very interesting month from the perspective of a...
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
Iran is intending to export about 400,000 MT of domestic wheat as local supplies are sufficient to meet demand. The government’s stockpile is reporte...
Market Commentary
As it is Tuesday, grain and soy futures markets moved in opposite directions from Monday’s price action. Grain prices weakened, while soybeans gained back...
The Market Can’t Buy Enough Corn and Soybeans
There have been a number of factors that will contribute to a slightly better bottom line than expected, regardless of the fact that futures markets haven’...
Market Commentary
Markets started this week on a more interesting and volatile note, led by wheat (of all things). Last Friday’s Commitment of Traders (COT) report showed th...
Add Puerto Rico to the List of Crises Congress Must Address
Congress has a number of critical issues that it must address by the end of this year. Add to that the pressing problems in Puerto Rico, which is facing sh...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
The spread between feed wheat and corn in the EU has narrowed significantly during the last few days, mainly due to the sharp rally of the USD versus the e...
Less than Good Science
The World Health Organization’s International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) strikes again, this time concluding that processed meat is carcinogenic...
China In-Country Analysis
Although the estimated average utilization rate of the major soybean processors is trending upward, China’s soymeal inventories continue to fall as feed de...
Market Commentary
Today was the last trading day for options on the November soybean contract. It staged a mini-rally in the last minutes of trade and made a run at $9.00 be...
Oilseed Highlights
Officials at the Brazilian port of Paranagua indicate 460,000 MT of soybeans were exported from there in September, up from only 136,000 MT during the same...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Fear of imports and the inability to sell the stocks purchased by Food Corporation of India (FCI) led GOI to announce another 10 percent increase in the wh...
China Causing California Drought?
Most would argue that a drought is the result of little or no rainfall, not exports of agricultural products to China or anywhere else on earth.CNBC carrie...
Argentine Election
All the candidates agree that the fixed exchange rate must change eventually. Likewise, there is at least implicit recognition that the strongest sector of...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
R&D Scuttled; GMO Foibles
The least developed countries (LDCs) are demanding an indefinite (read permanent) exemption from having to honor any intellectual property rights to pharma...
Policy Potpourri
U.S. Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack says he plans to create a commission on farmland ownership in 2016. He classified the issue of who owns farmland as...
Food Critics and Thomas Malthus
There are a number of individuals finding a variety of things to criticize about the way food is produced, distributed and consumed. There is also another...
Barriers to Global Dairy Trade
The U.S. dairy industry has substantially increased its exports since 2000. Moreover, global dairy demand is growing. Yet, dairy remains one of the commodi...
Market Commentary
This week’s grain and soy futures price rally continued during the overnight session in a somewhat muted fashion and with much lower trading volume than th...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Competition has intensified for South American soybean exports as the recent 20-cent collapse in basis at the U.S. Gulf has brought U.S. production back in...
Corn Belt Regional Analysis
There is a general expectation that any potential production shortfalls in the eastern Corn Belt this season will be more than compensated by the western s...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
Today’s market action gave further signs that the seasonal price rally is underway. In the last two days, the November soybean contract has gained 14.25 ce...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russia has been increasing its soybean production over the past several years because of high demand from domestic animal and poultry feed producers. Accor...
Ryan’s TTIP; Bloviators; GMO Label; Unbalanced
Whether he ascends to the speakership of the U.S. House or remains chair of its Ways and Means Committee, Congressman Paul Ryan (R-Wisconsin) will be a pow...
The EU’s Wheat Problems
While the EU was able to mostly deal with its huge wheat supplies in 2014/15 through large increases in feed use and exports, it will have greater difficul...
Trudeau and TPP; TTIP’s Achilles Heel
The tariffs being negotiated in Miami this week on transatlantic trade are the easy part. The likelihood of removing regulatory barriers via the Transatlan...
Market Commentary
There are often days when prices for the grains and soybeans all move in the same direction, but we cannot recall one when closing price changes were as co...
Oilseed Highlights
An assessment completed for several European agricultural organizations indicates costs to the EU feed and livestock industries would increase by up to 2.8...
Canadian Election Results
The centrist Liberal Party maintained its momentum and swept to power with 184 seats, 14 more than needed to gain an outright majority government. There ar...
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
The Egyptian pound was devalued by 1.2 percent last week as the country's importers still face difficulties making their payments in U.S. currency. Most ma...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Subsidies; Burning Surpluses; Outnumbered; Consumers
This week the U.S. House Agriculture Committee will hold a hearing excoriating the agricultural subsidies issued by foreign governments for the harm they c...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Weather and Wheat
Wheat prices are now back to the level that the world’s buyers should seriously consider adding to their volume of inventories and long-term coverage. Howe...
Market Commentary
The soy complex seemed to have had some positive news to start the week, but that couldn’t translate into any gains for soybeans, meal or oil. A great chan...
China In-Country Analysis
The Chinese producers' soymeal price averaged RMB 2,837/MT ($447.20/MT) last week. That reflected a RMB 40/MT ($6.30/MT) increase from a week ago as the es...
U.S. EPA to Review Ethanol GHG Emissions
This is occurring as a number of anti-ethanol groups have again raised the issue of GHG emissions. One of the most strident is the Environmental Working Gr...
Election Day in Canada
Monday, 19 October is election day in Canada. In 2011, Harper’s Conservative Party (a.k.a. the Tories) won a majority in the House of Commons with just und...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
Markets were soft again in the Thursday evening session and started lower today. They were expecting some pre-weekend hedge selling, although farmers conti...
Minor Crop Yields Also Big
Corn, wheat and soybeans are certainly the major crops that receive all of the market’s attention, but the so-called minor crops also enjoyed a banner year...
Fair Play Turnabout; Healthy Unpalatable
No trade agreement is perfect, including the new “Bronze Standard” Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) accord. Now Democrats and Republicans are highlighting j...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Pulses are becoming more of a luxury food item than a stable protein in India as both demand and prices continue to rise. Similarly, poultry and dair...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
Trading volume was in decline by the time the day session opened except for soybeans, which were maintained by commercial support until about mid-session...
Oilseed Highlights
ADM announced yesterday that it plans to add capacity at its rapeseed crushing plant in Straubing, Germany to process non-GM soybeans predominately sourced...
Futures Market Memories
Except for a few options contracts, virtually all trading of CME futures is now conducted electronically via computers. However, It seems to us that open o...
Selective Organic; New Old Trade Policy
The EU Parliament’s agriculture committee rejected a regulatory reform proposal by the EU executive that would have made the organic food sector live up to...
South African Poultry Deadline
. In July, South Africa agreed to an annual antidumping duty-free quota of 65,000 MT for broiler meat that also allows for future growth. Today is the dead...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
South American soybean producers have already exported a good volume, and the likely additional increase from Brazil and Argentina is expected to reduce de...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Ukraine's domestic prices for milling wheat and feed wheat were more or less stable (in UAH expression) 5-9 October despite the growth in their respe...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
TPP’s Bronze Standard
Geopolitical analysts argue that the U.S. rushed to conclude a deal, any deal, because the Trans-Pacific Partnership's (TPP’s) real objective is to be a co...
Market Commentary
Without the leadership of the soy complex, wheat and corn futures prices struggled to stay near yesterday’s closes before finally closing lower. Wheat gave...
Presidential Hopefuls and TPP
It should be noted that the reported eight-chapter text of the agreement has not been publicly released yet, so a reasonable, pragmatic politician can be e...
What Comes Next?
A number of situations could erupt in unpredictable, serious ways that could interfere with world grain and soy trade flows and have significant effect on...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
TPP Politics; Data as Food; Marketing
The European Court of Justice’s ruling against the safe harbor agreement on data transfers across the Atlantic is being hailed by European nationalists. Ma...
Market Commentary
Price action in the overnight session was mixed with soybeans trading a few cents higher, wheat just above unchanged and corn slightly lower. Those results...
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
Saudi Arabia's grain imports for 2015/16 are expected to rise by about 1 MMT to 17.4 MMT. This includes 8.5 MMT of barley, 3.6 MMT of corn, 3.8 MMT of whea...
Oilseed Highlights
The slowdown in China's economy is clearly having a significant impact on 2015/16 global soybean demand as growth in its soybean imports is expected to be...
More Things to Keep You Up at Night
U.S. farmers will not be the only producers looking for ways to hold their financial statements together as it is becoming a worldwide problem. Everyone el...
China In-Country Analysis
Based on conversations with traders this past week, the average landed prices in China for U.S. DDGS have been RMB 1,400-1,450/MT ($221.20-229.10/MT). They...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
The November soybean contract was up as much as 8-9 early in the day with a high of $8.94½. $8.97-9.00 is still technical resistance, and the market hasn’t...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
The market in Bulgaria and Romania is slightly more active due to the price rally of Russian and Ukrainian wheat. Romania sold a cargo to Egypt’s GASC, and...
Wrong Suspects; Horrible Trade Rhetoric
Three years of successive large agricultural crops coupled with slower economic growth and lower subsidies from Brussels have farmers in Europe complaining...
House Votes to End Crude Oil Ban
Heretofore, the one primary argument has been that exports of crude oil would increase the domestic price of oil. However, export advocates argue (and the...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
There have been mixed reactions in India regarding the finalization of the 12-nation Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement. While it is still to be rat...
Market Commentary
Today's USDA numbers were generally slightly bearish as ending supplies for wheat, corn and soybeans all came in above the range of pre-report estimates. A...
Neutral USDA Reports
It is now highly unlikely we will see any major changes to the U.S. corn and soybean production estimates in future reports. The early and rapid pace of th...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
House Leadership Chaos
The problem now for the Republicans is that it appears possible that no one single candidate can unite their conference and be elected speaker with at leas...
Market Commentary
Prices sagged throughout the day session due as much or more to an absence of buying interest as to aggressive selling. Funds were on the sell side across...
DGAC Drops Anti-Meat Sustainability Language
The controversy over inserting sustainability considerations into the five-year update of the federal Dietary Guidelines for Americans may have just come t...
Excessive Speculation (Again)
While it is agreed that derivative markets need speculators to provide enough trading volume and market liquidity so that those with certain vested interes...
Oilseed Highlights
USDA is now releasing details of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement and has confirmed that Japan agreed to eliminate its tariffs on soyoil in si...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Trade and Food Policy
WTO Director General Roberto Azevêdo congratulated the 12 countries completing agreement on the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) even though he may wish tha...
Ag Review: The Volatility Issue
Loss Avoidance, Volatility and Food Security Volatility is the market seeking supply and demand balance, but the market lacks trust when it comes to balanc...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
As Ukraine's Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food prepares to sign a Memorandum of Understanding that will establish the volumes of grain allowed for expor...
TTIP Trouble; Hari-Kari; Cuba; Diet
The conclusion of a transpacific trade agreement has prompted some members of the European Parliament to anxiously call for expediting completion of the tr...
Market Commentary
With upward momentum from yesterday’s strong performance still in play, grain and soy prices were firmer again during the overnight session. Prices across...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
South American soybean exporters are expressing some concern about potentially limiting supplies for the February-March period due to possible delays in pl...
Budget Numbers Still May Add Up to Government Shutdown
The long-term CR is likely to be based on the budget resolution, and the cuts to mandatory spending are likely to be in any such legislation that appears i...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
It is reported in the local trade that Egypt’s GASC may change the minimum protein level on its wheat tenders from the current requirement of 12 perc...
Sliding Toward the October WASDE
USDA’s October WASDE with fresh U.S. corn and soybean production estimates compiled in the midst of the harvest is always fun. This year’s edition, which i...
Commodities Need Demand
There are doubts that continued pump priming by central banks will yield the level of stimulative effect that is needed and desired. Someone needs to produ...
Oilseed Highlights
While a majority of EU member countries have opted out of allowing their farmers to produce biotech crops approved for production within the union, Romania...
Market Commentary
Several factors have helped support this week’s higher grain and soy prices, but it will be whatever tone is set by this Friday’s WASDE that will determine...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
OilseedsThe sunflower seed harvest is about 85 percent completed in Romania and Bulgaria, and the price has rallied approximately $50 during the past three...
Farmers and Futures Markets
The one thing that seems to be clear is that farmers simply aren’t selling very much of this year’s production off the combine. This reluctance to sell als...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
World financial markets were very strong to start this week, and that strength spilled over into energy and agricultural commodity markets. Expectations we...
TPP Analyzed; Soft Power; Proximity; Worms
Trade ministers highlighted the precedent this accord sets for future agreements as well as for the Pacific region. Unmentioned but more important at this...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
The sunflower seed harvest is about 85 percent completed in Romania and Bulgaria, and the price has rallied approximately $50 during the past three weeks...
China In-Country Analysis
Following the RMB 240/MT decrease in the last week of September, the average domestic corn prices in both northern and southern China have been steadily fa...
Dairy Production Up on Fat Demand and Lower Feed Costs
In addition to stronger demand, dairy producers are enjoying good margins. This is despite milk prices being down from previous years and exports starting...
Market Commentary
The sharply lower opening in the financial markets spilled instantly over into the agricultural markets. However, they all started to firm as U.S. financia...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Low Prices Will Mean Lower World Production
U.S. farmers are starting to face the ugly reality that $3.50-4.00 corn, $8.50-9.00 soybeans and $5.00 wheat simply don’t work, even with big yields. Like...
Russia; Food Aid; Meat; Trade; TPP and RFS
While Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov is trying to reduce the financial burdens on the state, including privatizing assets, the agriculture ministr...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
India’s food industry is facing a period of uncertainty, especially as the FSSAI is unable to decide if it should set standards for products or ingredients...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
India’s food industry is facing a period of uncertainty, especially as the FSSAI is unable to decide if it should set standards for products or ingredients...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Industry Seeking Approval for Continued PHO Use
In June 2015, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) declared that partially hydrogenated oils (PHOs) are not generally recognized as safe (GRAS). How...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Oilseed Highlights
As the volume of India's vegoil imports has continued to rise in recent years with palm oil the most in demand, another oil accounts for a substantial shar...
Dragging Exports
It is safe to say that the soft global economy and currency gyrations will have some impact on world demand. However, predicting exactly how that happens a...
Price Reporting Bill on President’s Desk
The House of Representatives passed the mandatory livestock price reporting reauthorization this week. The Senate had already approved the bill, which cont...
Shortages; TPP Tradeoffs; Worry
The results from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) ministerial in Atlanta will become clear shortly, but the trade-offs are at hand. Sense not Crop Short...
Market Commentary
Today’s grain and soy futures trade appeared to be mostly a continuation of the market’s reaction to yesterday’s stocks and small grains reports. Wheat's g...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
The Russian Ministry of Agriculture lowered its 2015 grain production forecast from 100-103 MMT to 100-101 MMT. The export volume is estimated at 30 MMT. R...
When All the Money Goes to Debt
There are some parallels to be drawn between the predicament that debt-laden commodity businesses find themselves in and our personal households. Although...
Futures; Differentiation; GMO Ban; Frivolous
Despite greater European suspicion of sophisticated financial instruments, Brussels needs tools to help farmers manage risk that go beyond the limits of su...
Market Commentary
Today’s lower-than-expected grain and soybean stocks may temper the bears’ enthusiasm. By the same token, however, bulls will have great difficulty using t...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
An interesting study released by AACREA this past week seems to conclude that it will be difficult for Argentine farmers to financially break even th...
Oilseed Highlights
Last Thursday's announcement regarding China's agreement to purchase 13.18 MMT of U.S. soybeans was well received by the market. More recent reports, thoug...
Market Commentary
Corn futures contracts traded quietly in a range of less than 5 cents before closing mostly higher by 2 cents or less. This seems to suggest that traders t...
1 September Stocks Report
Tomorrow's release of USDA's quarterly stocks estimates will provide some fresh fodder for the grain and soy markets, which are eager for news even in the...
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
Iran has cancelled both the wheat and barley import duties that had been added this past July. It is still expected to import about 4 MMT of wheat in 2015/...
House GOP Leadership Update
The number of positions potentially changing hands depends on which of those posts open up after the shuffling among current leadership members settles. T...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Food Tribes; PRC Corn; Aussie Canola
Beijing could have easily foreseen the error in its farm policy had it just looked at the European and American experiences with guaranteeing high prices t...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
The milling wheat market in Romania and Bulgaria is unchanged. Producers prefer to sell sunseeds and corn from the ongoing harvest in order to cover their...
Japan; China; Regulation; Trade
At last week's bilateral meeting with the U.S., Chinese President Xi Jinping said agriculture is a field where both countries would "expand mutually b...
Market Commentary
Grain and oilseed markets started the Sunday evening session steady to higher, but that pattern changed this morning when the soy complex started to lose g...
A Lot on the Plate This Week
Weakness in EU and U.S. financial markets, led in part by talk that Glencore might be in big trouble and looking for a partner in its agricultural commodit...
Ethanol Market Value and Blending Economics
So far in September, ethanol has been more expensive than reformulated blendstock for oxygenated blending (RBOB) – i.e., the unleaded gasoline. This skews...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Milling WheatThe Black Market market is firmer due to slower farmer selling. Russian wheat is about $5 higher than the season's lows of two weeks ago. Mark...
China In-Country Analysis
Strong demand from the feed industry last week had a notable impact on China's estimated soymeal inventories, reversing a trend from the past three weeks t...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
The government of India (GOI) has raised the import duty on vegetable oils in order to help domestic farmers obtain a slightly better value for their oilse...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Transgenic Cheese; Organic Control; Hyper; Leverage
Antoine Branca of L'Universite Paris-Sud has revealed that France's Roquefort cheese, a source of national pride, gets its blue veins because the gene...
More Things to Keep You Up at Night
This strong El Nino is offering some hope that winter will finally bring rain to severely drought-stricken central and northern California. However, that t...
Speaker Boehner to Retire from Congress Halfway Through Term
The move comes in response to growing antipathy from the conservative faction of the House Republican caucus, which demanded a new vote, plebiscite style,...
Market Commentary
Markets were firm overnight and opened higher this morning. Brazil's real also finally rallied sharply higher, which impacted the market's view of U.S. soy...
Market Commentary
Wheat and corn futures fell today with perhaps the most pertinent reason being that they were higher yesterday. It may be that the current state of the mar...
Oilseed Highlights
Reports out of Brazil indicate farmers' sales of new crop soybeans this year far exceed those of a year ago because of their perceptions regarding the U.S...
Show and Tell
Today just as Pope Francis leaves Washington, DC, Chinese President XI Jinping arrives for meetings with President Obama. One of the main purposes of his t...
Suffering; Unscientific; Trade; VW’d
The new U.S. Dietary Guidelines released earlier this year were roundly criticized by the agriculture sector and have now been attacked by more disinterest...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Cattle Prices; Bullish Butter; Broiler Outlook
USDA's Cattle on Feed report revealed an unexpected number of feeder cattle placements in August. Retail beef demand is also being impacted by changes in p...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Brazil's exchange rate weakened this past week, and that could encourage an expansion in the country's soybean production to 100 MMT compared with last sea...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
On the cusp of the U.S. corn and soybean harvests, grain and soy futures markets continue to move rather aimlessly in the absence of anything to drive pric...
Trade Flows; ICS Panned
Trade officials in Brussels and Washington signaled the go-ahead to resume negotiations on a Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) agreemen...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Ukraine exported 29,100 MT of flour during August 2015, a 60 percent increase compared with the same month a year ago, while the total volume for July and...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
The latest USDA/GAIN report on Algerian grains is estimating a rise in local wheat production from 1.9 MMT in 2014/15 to 2.7 MMT in 2015/16. However, this...
Oilseed Highlights
While current depressed soybean prices may cause many farmers to once again store a sizable share of their soybeans after harvest in hope of better p...
TPP Endgame; Meat Tactics; SDGs; Energy
The United Nations is expected to adopt 17 "Sustainable Development Goals" (SDGs) at next week's 70th Session of the General Assembly. Included is the goal...
Thoughts for a Dull Tuesday in September
One sign of the current state of grain and soy markets is the lack of attention being paid to the next batch of reports from USDA/NASS that are to be relea...
Senate Passes Three-in-One Reauthorization Bill
The Senate last night passed three agricultural-related reauthorization bills under one title, the Agricultural Reauthorization Act. Included were the U.S...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy futures closed lower, giving back most or all of yesterday's gains. Soybeans led the way down as the market responded to perceptions of a hug...
China In-Country Analysis
The state's new temporary purchase and reserve polices for corn were released last week, which together with another factor should drive up Chinese process...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Weather Wins; Federalism
For historical reasons, delineating federalism - the role and powers of states versus the national government in the U.S. - can be confusing, and there are...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
The market in Bulgaria and Romania remains quiet as farmers refuse to sell wheat at current market levels that are about $20/MT below their target. M...
The Pervasive Bearish Attitude
The world is still super bearish regarding nearly everything related to commodities with many now creating more reasons why prices will never go back up. T...
What China is Saying Makes Economic Sense
Chinese Premier Li Keqiang spoke at a seminar of senior government officials last week, urging state-owned firms to innovate, improve efficiency, focus on...
Market Commentary
Markets were steady to a bit lower for most of the Sunday evening session. They then started a rally with this morning's opening that was sustained through...
GMO Reorder; Miscellaneous; Media Mutters
An Australian court has issued a decision regarding an organic farmer's charge against a neighboring GMO producer's cultivation practices. GMO Reorde...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
The ongoing rise in the cost of inputs, especially for corn and soymeal, is especially impacting India's poultry and starch sectors, which are both current...
Market Commentary
There was heavy selling pressure across the soy complex today. Much of that was based on the assumption that there will be some hedge selling ahead of the...
Senate Ag Committee Dealing with Nutrition Controversy AGAIN
The Healthy, Hunger-Free Kids Act (HHKA) expires 30 September 2015. While another extension is a distinct possibility, more controversy is a given. During...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Comments from Argentina
With a presidential election looming next month, Argentine farmers are facing difficult decisions in light of the current economic situation as well as a p...
Some Thoughts about U.S. Agriculture
There is still plenty of antipathy toward big agriculture on the part of self-styed watchdogs for consumers and producers of foodstuffs, but that sector no...
Oilseed Highlights
While an announcement is expected next week regarding additional purchases of U.S. soybeans by China, the unknown factor is when the stocks will actually b...
Market Commentary
Soybeans futures were comparatively strong today with prices trading back and forth around unchanged before light commercial hedge pressure took prices low...
FSA Acreage Data Clouds Supply/Demand Outlook
Today's FAS data showing large prevented planting for all three crops adds more confusion than clarity to the issue of how much acreage was actually plante...
Glyphosate; Trade Policy; GMO Labeling
In Geneva, the U.S. proposed a standstill commitment on agricultural market price supports and input subsidies as a small package deliverable at the upcomi...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Cattle Swine Outlook
USDA will release the monthly Cattle on Feed report tomorrow. Industry expectations are for a number that confirms the lower marketings in August with the...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
There was a 20-cent decline in Argentine corn premiums during the past week as they moved down from the high 40s to the high 20s. This price drop is an eff...
Market Commentary
Current chart patterns could encourage technical traders to test the wheat, corn and soy contracts for additional price weakness during the remainder of th...
RFS Clouds; Food Abuses
The real flaw in the Clean Air Act's Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) is mandating particular volumes of fuel use each year rather than specifying a shar...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
A Russian Grain Union official has indicated that the country's grain exports in September may reach 4.7 MMT, a record amount for that month, with the MY 2...
Ethanol Back in Washington Spotlight
Ethanol is once again a hotly debated issue in Washington as the sector awaits the EPA's final 2014, 2015 and 2016 Required Volume Obligations (RVOs). Sinc...
Oilseed Highlights
The EU has decided to extend its anti-dumping duties on U.S. biodiesel through 2020. In response, the National Biodiesel Board (NBB) condemned this move an...
Price Analysis and Trade Ideas
The means to successfully trade in a repetitive manner is dependent upon the ability to correctly anticipate market actions as well as having a predefined...
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
The Egyptian government announced that the new bread allocation program has cut subsidy costs by 6 billion Egyptian pounds ($470 million). The supply minis...
Market Commentary
Today's price action in grain futures contracts implied that the upward momentum of late is temporarily out of steam. Meanwhile, even though palm oil price...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Mission Creep; Begetting; Economic Policy
Rich countries see few success stories from specific development assistance initiatives, while many developing nations view foreign aid as often ill-prescr...
A Different El Nino Worry?
There are reports now emerging from some weather experts about how the real effect from this year's record El Nino might not occur until the summer of 2016...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Assuming the latest EU soft wheat crop forecasts are correct and also a 2 MMT increase in domestic feed wheat consumption, a minimum of 30 MMT will need to...
Who Cares What the Fed Does?
This Thursday is when that the Federal Reserve's Board of Governors meets next to determine whether or not it will raise interest rates. However, market fu...
Subsidies; Bee Sting; Poison; Holocaust
One does not usually get to see two federal agencies in a public dispute, but U.S. EPA's proposed restriction on 76 pesticide ingredients around pollinator...
China In-Country Analysis
Following China's annual Victory Day celebration on 3 September, downstream demand from the feed sector increased. That caused the country's estimated soym...
Market Commentary
Markets opened with some strength Sunday evening. That faded near this morning's close, but today's markets opened firm again with soybeans and wheat leadi...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Fizzle FSMA; El Nino Guessing
The U.S. Food & Drug Administration issued new rules under the Food Safety Modernization Act (FSMA) that mandate food and feed processors implement pat...
Market Commentary
The markets were very quiet overnight and this morning until they turned weak an hour ahead of the 12 p.m. (EDT) USDA report release. This was the same pat...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Appropriations Outlook
For the first time since 2009 (FY 2010), Congress actually passed a budget resolution this year. It sets the broad outline of authorized mandatory and appr...
USDA Reports Offer Mixed Results
The USDA reports contained something for nearly everyone. While there were some other reports this week of smaller-than-expected corn harvest yields, it wi...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
The government of India (GOI) is taking certain steps to help the domestic sugar industry with its surplus supply. Production continues to far exceed local...
Red Meat Exports Down
A CoBank report this week predicted a two-year erosion in meat prices due to a decline in exports stemming from a stronger U.S. dollar and increased U.S. p...
Trading Dynamics
Timing is of extreme importance when trading as commodity markets are filled with emotional participants and a great deal of money. Even accomplished hedge...
Oilseed Highlights
Reports out of Argentina indicate farmers there are having a real problem securing financing to put in their next crop, and their failure to honor the roya...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Labeling; Efficiency; TPP
The Hungarian government once destroyed GM crops and has claimed a desire to be the first EU country to completely ban their cultivation under the new auth...
Market Commentary
It was evident that the level of commitment increased today as corn contracts showed their strongest resolve to move higher during the past four days of up...
Market Commentary
Today was the third day of corn contracts slowly working higher in narrow daily trading ranges as positions are adjusted, and the December contract still d...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
At the moment, present global prices in the soy complex do not offer favorable margins for Brazilian and Argentine market participants. This basically mean...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Ukrainian Agrarian Policy and Food Minister Oleksiy Pavlenko announced the grain harvest forecast on 7 September 2015, which he noted will be 255 percent o...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
WTO Leadership; GMO Trends
In a twist on the old saying that you can offer someone a great opportunity but can't force them to accept it, WTO members continue their decade-plus recor...
Oilseed Highlights
Soybean and corn prices already have fallen to unprofitable levels for nearly all farmers. The almost certain big crops this year in the U.S. and the likel...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
The Turkish lira has reached a record low against the U.S. dollar after falling 22 percent so far in 2015, and that is pushing up prices for imported grain...
Price Influences and Opportunities
The current period of low global grain prices presents a temporary opportunity for end users to be proactive, primarily because this is a time is when grow...
Market Commentary
The nearby contracts for soybeans, meal, and soyoil all appear poised to challenge their respective 10-day moving averages. The charts for each look as tho...
Natural Gas Low and Slow Going into Fall
We are going into the fall this year with historically low natural gas prices, and the current bear market situation is being driven by one large factor.Th...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Ethanol Exports Growing
While the EU anti-dumping and countervailing duties against the U.S. are in place for two-and-half more years, global oil prices have crashed and the U.S...
Brazil’s Farmers Struggling
Recent conversations with an associate farming and living in Brazil underscored a number of concerns that will eventually have a negative impact on crop pr...
Divide; Losing Ugly; Smiling
The divide between urbanites and the agriculture community apparently goes beyond language and experience and directly to differing sources for research. U...
Market Commentary
Grain and oilseed futures were relatively quiet in low volume trade ahead of the weekend. Funds were light sellers of corn and soybeans and light buyers of...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
India's rapeseed and mustard seed prices are now rising in tandem with demand due to the non-availability of other oilseeds, while mustard seed oil is also...
The Short Term and the Long Term
Macro issues are currently driving prices as much or more than micro fundamentals such as supply and demand. Commodity markets have been bearish in the rec...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Broiler Chicks for Mexico
There was a notable gain in broiler pullet chick placements for future domestic hatchery supply flocks during July 2015, which indicates an ample supply of...
Market Commentary
Overnight trade was lackluster, both in terms of volume and price action. Wheat and corn prices edged lower, while soybeans firmed slightly. Similar trends...
Oilseed Highlights
Environmental and wildlife groups have long been critical of palm oil as the cause of the widespread destruction of forests in Indonesia and Malaysia. Whil...
Green; White; TPP Stimulant
U.S. agriculture has been scoring some wins in the environmental arena of late, and there is hope regarding another pending ruling. Green Wars U.S. agricul...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Traders may wish to note that the recent drop in CBOT prices is not attracting any additional selling of South American soybeans from the coming 2015/16 ca...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Prices grew everywhere on the Russian market with active buying and selling at the week's beginning, but business then practically came to a halt by its en...
Rationing; Abysmal; Land
The Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS) joins the club of foodies asserting that abundance and affordability are somehow evil concepts, which implies that...
Market Commentary
The overnight session found corn and wheat trading both sides of yesterday's closes, while soybeans were mostly firmer. That is the way the day session ope...
Oilseed Highlights
The drop in soybean prices over the last year has obviously helped to boost global soybean demand. However, the increase in global consumption predicted fo...
Realignment; Outlook; Mouseprint
Pollsters say that Trump's disparagement of the Latino community has not broad-brushed other Republican candidates, but the rise of the anti-corporate welf...
Consumer Reports Bashes Grain-Fed Beef
The Consumer Reports study was conducted by its Food Safety and Sustainability Center. It tested 300 samples from 458 pounds of ground beef from various pr...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
Any negative economic news about China sends shivers throughout markets around the world, and its PMI falling to a three-year low was no exception. General...
Booming U.S. Feed Grain Supplies
2015 production of grain sorghums, barley and oats is expected to exceed domestic demand by more than 360 million bushels. This illustrates how important e...
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
Egypt has decided to allow 13.5 percent moisture in wheat tender offers for a period of twelve months at the request of France, which has had difficulty me...
China In-Country Analysis
China’s recent currency depreciation has raised the cost of imported soybeans and is one factor that has slowed domestic utilization rates. A second factor...
Prioritizing; Non-replicable; Reform
U.S. organic production standards are emotive (not science) based and cheat the philosophy of “all natural” and still fall short of the yields achieved in...
North Dakota Court Puts "Whoa" In WOTUS
There is now further confusion over the WOTUS rule, despite the fact that the EPA and the Army Corps of Engineers published a final rule defining the...
U.S. Net Farm Income Plunging
It’s no surprise. The longest bull market in history followed by the steep collapse in commodity prices has left farmers in the U.S. and around the w...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Considering the large carryover stocks in Russia at the start of this season, the combined exportable surplus in 2015/16 in Russia and Ukraine should be ab...
Market Commentary
Markets opened Sunday evening with little change. By morning, however, soybeans were showing double digit losses and corn and wheat were also lower. Genera...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
After the wheat import duty was introduced as a way to safeguard the interests of the Food Corporation of India (FCI), industry associations, particularly...
U.S. Corn & Soybean Exports Sales Pace Remains Very Slow
U.S. corn and soybean export sales are lagging far behind those of the past four years, which is a primary concern among bulls and bears alike, and there a...
Clinton Ag Policy Belies Campaign Strategy
While every major presidential candidate with the exception of Donald Trump has at least made a public statement on ethanol while campaigning in Iowa, form...
Market Commentary
It was a relatively calm day across most markets today following a very tumultuous week. Some news stories tied the small rally in the soy complex to the b...
Food Rot; Taxes; WOTUS; Seeds
The law unanimously passed by the French Parliament requiring that supermarkets donate their food rather than destroy what is likely rotten has now be...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
China’s Grain Dilemma
Predictably, China is now reaping the same results that high-price support farm policies produced years earlier in the U.S. and EU. The Chinese government'...
AGOA Slap; Ghanaian Ag
U.S. Trade Representative Michael Froman has reportedly warned his South African counterpart that at least part of that country's benefits under the Africa...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Oilseed Highlights
Concerned there will be too little corn for livestock feed, the current Argentine government plans to offer farmers interest rate subsidies to maintain its...
Market Commentary
The new crop soybean market, which would be most immediately affected by China, did manage to post a nice 14-16 cent rally today. Corn futures were higher...
U.S. and Canadian Cattle Inventory
USDA reported that the combined total of all cattle and calves in the United States and Canada on 1 July 2015 showed an increase from last year. However, e...
What Does the Bond Market Say About the U.S. Economy?
Comparing the nominal yields of five-year Treasury bonds with the real yields of five-year Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) may be one of the...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
South America could potentially benefit from present conditions within the global soy complex as there seems to be a delayed beginning of the soybean harve...
Market Commentary
A stronger U.S. dollar, weaker crude oil, generally weaker world grain prices and chatter about the lack of world demand for grains and oilseeds all served...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
The Ukrainian Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food indicated on 25 August that the country will export 36.83 MMT of grain in MY 2015/16 versus 34.8 MMT in...
Weight Loss Plan; NLEA Fight II
Rural development initiatives tend to be like the latest weight loss plan – full of promise but yielding dubious results. Weight Loss Plan Democratic presi...
Brazil’s Export Infrastructure Growing Rapidly; Transportation System a Problem
As impressive as the new barge and export facilities are, there continue to be major bottlenecks in the inland transportation system that hinder commodity...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy futures markets had a relatively placid day, although they swung in relatively wide ranges. However, trading volumes were relatively light. G...
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
Officials in Bangladesh have said that the country will import 950,000 MT of wheat in the 12-month period ending June 2016, a significant increase over the...
Transatlantic Divergence
German Agriculture Minister Christian Schmidt has served notice that his government intends to prohibit the use of GM crops otherwise approved by the Europ...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
The Uncertainties that Matter
How grain and soy markets react to their own set of uncertainties often ignores what financial markets may be doing.Uncertainty almost always leads to vola...
China, China, China
There have been several important news stories from China in recent days, but the one that deserves more chatter suggests the country might be considering...
Market Commentary
World financial markets were getting decimated again when markets opened Sunday, and it was another day of risk off and "get me out" selling. However, that...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
At the current export pace of about 3 MMT per month, Russia will dominate the wheat market until next spring. However, two variables could prevent th...
Agricultural Espionage
The idea of espionage over farm crops and food is novel to most consumers. However, the U.S. government has identified the sector as ripe for spying for ye...
Bear Market Policies; Less Safe Food
Uncertainty roils many markets but not commodities where there is little hope for a rebound due to no visible path upward. Bear Market Policies Uncertainty...
China In-Country Analysis
China's average live pig prices had been moving steadily upward through July, but several macroeconomic factors have had an impact with the first reve...
Senate Ag Committee to Take Up Child Nutrition Bill
The Senate Agriculture Committee focused on flexibility with new rules at its May hearing on the bill, especially regarding the standards for whole grains...
Stats Canada‘s First 2015 Production Estimates
These estimates were basically all below the average trade guesses. The steep reductions in wheat and canola production were the result of the drought that...
Market Commentary
The world was selling everything today, including wheat, corn and soybeans. It was as close to a Black Friday as we could get in the financial markets. Tod...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
The two main foods in the Indian kitchen are onions and pulses,but their higher prices are upsetting the typical household budget. The increases are attrib...
Organic Backfire
Sales of foods labeled as "non-GMO" have apparently skyrocketed, much to the chagrin of organic food producers. Peggy Lowe of National Public Radio (NPR)...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
Reaction to a technically oversold market and debate about the potential U.S. corn and soybean yields, spurred by the Pro Farmers annual Midwestern crop to...
China: Lower Yuan, Less Hogs; Ruble, Geopolitics and Pork
China's slowing economy and higer prices together with other factors are leading to slower consumer demand for pork and a decline in hog production. While...
Today’s Unexpected Price Action
Traders must strive to decipher whether today's unexpectedly bullish price action was an upward head fake in a further downward market or the "real McCoy"...
Market Commentary
There was an indication today that the stakes were being raised as traders with opposing long and short positions squared off in tug-of-war contests that t...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Influence of Tight Margins
Farm policy and food manufacturer practices are evidence that the agrifood sector is a mature industry existing on tight margins. Farm policy and food man...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
There have recently been promises by Argentine political candidates to remove export taxes on all crops except soybeans. The one certainty is the country w...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Although Russia's current grain harvest lags behind the results of a year ago, Deputy Minister of Agriculture Sergey Levin announced today that the current...
Oilseed Highlights
USDA's foreast for global 2015/16 rapeseed production indicates a notable decline from last year's record 71.815 MMT. This has implications for many countr...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Clean and Deceptive; Ethanol Attacks
Although some studies have asserted that fructose is worse for health than other sugars such as sucrose, none have the conclusive evidence built against pa...
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
Turkey and Iran are said to be discussing the possibility of importing grain from Crimea as production there is reportedly up by about 23 percent over last...
Market Commentary
Wheat has attractive prospects for 2016, but today's close of the December Chicago SRW contract back below the physiologically important level of $5.00 see...
Economic Growth, the U.S. Dollar and Ag Trade
The federal government's revenues are outpacing its outlays compared with 2014. This and other positive economic factors have strengthened the U.S. dollar,...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
AGOA; Secret Necessity; Managing the Bear
The Government Accountability Office (GAO) has issued a report describing the conditions necessary for the U.S. to convert the recently reauthorized, ten-y...
Market Commentary
Corn and wheat futures were higher most of the overnight session, while the soy complex was lower. However, that pattern reversed itself today. General Com...
Presidential Hopefuls and the RFS
Presidential candidates are hitting Iowa hard with one of the marquee events being the Iowa State Fair. That has led to a number of news items about their...
China In-Country Analysis
Looking back at the data from the beginning of July, China's soymeal inventories have varied region-by-region and week-by-week due to fluctuations in feed...
Uneventful Trade Until September Crop Report
Demand for U.S. corn and wheat isn't strong enough to change anything, at least not today, although soybean demand could make a difference. The domes...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
The Black Sea market remains under pressure as demand is on an "as-needed basis" with buyers in the major destinations reluctant to cover their needs for f...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
The government of India's (GOI's) decision to impose a 10 percent wheat import tariff is expected to enable the Food Corporation of India (FCI) to offload...
A Look at the Yuan Devaluation
There is no doubt that China's move is bearish for commodities. Putting the devaluation in context, however, China has essentially pegged its currency to t...
Market Commentary
All markets were subject to a relative calmness today after a tumultuous week of bearish USDA reports and China's currency devaluations. Meanwhile, the bul...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Weary of India; Overwrought
Although food and agriculture are not on the agenda of next month's U.S.-India Strategic and Commercial Dialogue, the way New Delhi has manhandled Europe's...
More Things to Keep You Up at Night
This week's bearish USDA reports will likely result in farmers doing all they can to store as much of their unsold 2015 production as possible. One problem...
Some Post-Report Thoughts
If there were a record of the margin by which pre-August report trade consensus estimates missed the NASS numbers up or down each year, yesterday's would p...
Market Commentary
After yesterday's major market washout, some sort of recovery bounce was to be expected today, and that is exactly what the market provided. General Commen...
USDA Report Shakes Up Soy Sector
USDA's higher forecasts for U.S. soy yields and production noted in yesterday's report clearly sent shock waves through the market as they were much above...
Water War; Contrasts in GMOs
Transparency and technology have combined to make policy making a more sophisticated battle over information. Nowhere is this better illustrated than in th...
COOL Retaliation Delayed; Ractopamine Math
As all appeals regarding the WTO ruling against its country-of-origin labeling (COOL) law have been exhausted, the U.S. filed a brief disputing...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Ukraine's milling wheat prices dropped under the pressure of lower prices on European markets and increasing offer. Most traders have also completed their...
Wrong Solution; Surprising Critique
India has many problems, but two involve a surplus of sugar that the government may subsidize into the export market and a malnourishment rate of 40 percen...
Market Commentary
Just a quick glance at today's futures closes revealed corn down 19 cents, soybeans off more than 60 cents and wheat down 15 cents, which shows the tone of...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
If present global pricing conditions remain for another six-nine months, financial constraints could force Argentine farmers to pull vast quantities of soy...
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
Morocco's overall wheat and barley plantings are up by about 11 percent with production expected to increase by 69 percent compared with last year. Wheat i...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy futures were slammed like most other commodity markets and closed sharply lower. The reaction to the devaluation of the yuan masked the marke...
The U.S. Dollar, Chinese Yuan and Commodity Prices
While the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is considering adding the Chinese yuan to its basket of "reserve currencies," the world is experiencing an incr...
Oilseed Highlights
Because of the growth in its poultry sector and aquaculture industry, Turkey's consumption of soybeans and soymeal has been rising rapidly in recent years...
The Ides of August
While USDA's August corn and soybean yield and production estimates may be more solid than July's projections, they still may vary considerably up or down...
Devaluation Game; Tangled Sweetener Web
The U.S. sugar price is artificially held so high that the product is being smuggled across the border, and now it's politically-created distortions are th...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
12 August USDA Report Could Be Significant
There are a number of reasons why USDA's numbers in its 12 August report may have a significant impact on prices.USDA will provide its first corn and soybe...
Market Commentary
Buying in the soy complex accelerated at this morning's opening and eventually took soybean futures more than 30 higher. That strength eventually spilled o...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
The heat wave persisting across France and central Europe as well as other regions has strongly affected corn crops and impacted the volume that the EU wil...
Ag Review: The Frontier Markets
Ranking the Frontier Markets By using indices measuring certain fundamentals for prospective market improvement, the five best countries are identified for...
China In-Country Analysis
Rumors of state policy shifts are driving down China's domestic corn prices, which is affecting some processors' margins. However, the cornstarch and ethan...
South Africa; China Subsidies; Science Deniers
The U.S. government is preparing its annual report to Congress on China's compliance with WTO obligations, and among the comments it is likely to receive f...
Scotland Moves to Ban GM Crops
The EU's opt-out measure adopted earlier this year, which allows member states or devolved administrations to restrict or ban GM organisms despite EU...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
Soybean futures exploded to near 20-cent gains on a warmer and drier weather forecast for the Corn Belt over the next 10-14 days. Wheat turned higher with...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Corn prices in India continue on an upward trend as both supplies and hope for good availability next season dwindle. Similarly, egg prices are also on the...
El Nino Getting Stronger
There have been several recent weather issues such as the drought in western Canada and the warm, dry finish to the season in Western Europe, but none have...
Russia’s Food Wreck; Sugar for Dairy
The Obama administration has assured U.S. sugar producers that it will not undermine their domestic support program and in return asked that the industry s...
Market Commentary
Corn futures ended about 3 cents lower today under pressure from last week's relatively small export sales, further evidence that lower Brazilian offers as...
The U.S. Dollar Effect
Back when the U.S. was the major supplier of wheat, corn and soybeans in the world market, currency relationships had only a marginal impact on the volumes...
Pay the Piper; Senate Action
The U.S. Senate is having one of its most productive sessions in years and is spending its last week of session before the August break by rolling through...
Oilseed Highlights
As the world's two largest soybean-producing nations, the U.S. and Brazil compete aggressively to supply the world's demand. Both countries have excellent...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Lighter Broilers and Hogs; Brazilian Beef Imports; Meat and the Global Economy
While the trend toward expanded meat consumption globally will still be a major driver in the agricultural sector, there is one element to be considered. L...
Sugar; COOL; WOTUS; Vietnam; Sunscreen
U.S. agriculture and other sectors have filed suit against the Obama administration's efforts to regulate the waters of the U.S. (WOTUS), and now environme...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Brazil has the means to undercut current USG soybean prices. However, if the present selling opportunities are missed, South American merchandisers may nee...
Market Commentary
Recent estimates by various analytic firms seem uniform in predicting that USDA's yield estimates for corn and soybeans will drop by one amount or another...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Ukraine's milling wheat prices were stable on the domestic market and at the UBS ports. They decreased, however, on the export market due to the increasing...
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
There continues to be a great deal of discussion regarding how Turkey can protect itself against the negative effects of the EU/U.S. Transatlantic Trade an...
Market Commentary
Today's trading of corn contracts was primarily preparation for USDA's 12 August reports. There is far less interest among traders in trying to trigger tec...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Oilseed Highlights
While the record pace of Brazilian and Argentine soybean export sales in 2015 continues, Korea's largest feed miller (Nonghyup Feed, Inc.) yesterday...
Video Conflict; Puerto Greece Example
President Barack Obama has suggested that the Republican-led Congress should pass a law easing Puerto Rico's ability to restructure its debt. However, ther...
Bipartisan Energy Bill Clears Senate Committee
The Energy Policy Modernization Act incorporates pieces of 114 different bills as well as addresses a few of the farm bill energy issues, exports of liquef...
Market Commentary
The soy complex had a day of very wide trading ranges on good (not big) volume. Corn futures had a 6 cent trading range and closed in the middle, down 3-4...
TPP; Renewables; Dollar; Mind Shaping
Ministers supposedly wrapped up 98 percent of the negotiating topics for the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), and optimists say they could meet again later...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Low-Price Environment Getting More Headlines
We are now starting to see the headlines in the more traditional news arenas reflect concerns about the crash in profits across the agricultural spectrum.T...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Russia's wheat exports were slower than expected in July at only 1.3 MMT. There seems to be one main reason for this trend, which is forcing exporters to t...
Congress Leaves for August Recess with Business Unfinished
The House of Representatives has recessed for the traditional August break, while the Senate is in session for the remainder of this week before it too adj...
China In-Country Analysis
While China's total grain output has stabilized at 600 MMT per year, imports have continued to grow and exceeded 100 MMT last year for the first time in hi...
Market Commentary
Wheat futures tried to sustain a small rally today, but that effort didn't uncover enough buying to offset the weakness in soybeans and eventual weakness i...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
More Things to Keep You Up at Night
Record world soybean supplies, the apparent extended shipping of South American soybeans and pretty good U.S. weather have broken the soybean futures marke...
TPP; Concerns and Timing
Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) negotiators reached the end of the ministers' schedule time. They are down to just a handful of issues, and there are indic...
Ethanol Export Outlook
Data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that ethanol exports to date have totaled more than 377 million gallons though May, while...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
India's sugar sector continues to suffer from low prices against the cost of production. Little change is expected unless the government of India (GOI) pro...
Market Commentary
After falling sharply from the wet weather highs, grain futures markets are quite oversold and due for a bounce, which is what they got today until wheat r...
CFTC; GMO Wars
U.S. House Agriculture Committee Chairman Mike Conaway (R-Texas) has made clear that the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is not going to get th...
Dodd-Frank After Five Years
It is the fifth anniversary of the Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act, more commonly known as Dodd-Frank, and such sweeping legislation is cert...
Oilseed Highlights
Pakistan's soybean imports have substantially increased this year with USDA expecting that volume to more than double in 2015/16. The surge is being driven...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Canadians Reject Voluntary COOL
The Canadian complaint about the U.S. voluntary COOL is that it still requires labeling based on where animals are born, raised and slaughtered. That neces...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
The Hydrometeorological Center of Ukraine raised its 2015 grain estimate to 60.5 MMT, which includes 25.3 MMT of corn. Meanwhile, sunflower seed production...
Market Commentary
Grain futures prices were under pressure during much of today's trading, while soybean prices traded on both sides before closing mixed with old crop Augus...
Food Politics; Militancy; Economics
French farmers reportedly blocked more than 400 trucks carrying perishable food products from Germany and Spain into France, complaining about the impact o...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
The stop-and-go release of corn export licenses, uncertainty about their distribution and falling CBOT corn futures contracts are combining to cause errati...
Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis
Egypt's GASC is reviewing its current position with regard to French wheat moisture levels. It stipulates a maximum level of 13 percent but has allowed Fre...
Ethanol War; Ex-Im Highway
When all sides in a regulatory matter are upset, it means the agency in charge has either found the only middle ground available or has failed altogether t...
Investors, Speculators and Whiplash
Whether one considers them to be investors or speculators, managed funds have collectively taken a real beating in the grain and soy markets during the las...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
"Turnaround Tuesday" may have become sort of a cliché, but it is true more often than not that Tuesday's grain and soy futures market prices move in the op...
Chinese Soy Milk
Most of the soy milk consumed in China is obtained from street vendors. White Wave Foods will be entering the market in a joint venture effort to convert t...
China In-Country Analysis
China's domestic corn prices saw modest improvement last week. The slight rise has been largely driven by a recent supply shortage in the north, which has...
The China Syndrome
It's difficult to not worry about demand for agricultural commodities when concerned about China's economy. The country has accounted for 65 percent of the...
California Dairy Gets Higher Milk Price: Still Seeks FMMO
The reason for the California FMMO petition is to adjust the price of milk that goes to cheese. The state system uses two calculations for pricing nonfat s...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
The corn market in the Black Sea is under heavy pressure due to the strong competition from Brazil and Argentina. The price for new crop (October/November)...
Market Commentary
Grain and oilseed markets gapped lower Sunday evening, and those losses accelerated throughout today's session before markets closed. The 8 percent drop in...
Technology; Meaningfulness; Balance
U.S. President Barack Obama's decision to upgrade Malaysia's status as a Tier 2 level trafficker in human beings enables that country to continue its aspir...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Oilseed Highlights
Industry predictions of a decline in EU rapeseed production are being confirmed by sharply lower yields in Germany. Farmers there are harvesting at least 2...
Chilean Food Label Law and the U.S. Junk Food Warning Idea
A new food label law in Chile requires that packaged foods high in calories, saturated fat, refined sugars or sodium bear stop sign-shaped warning notices...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Indian wheat prices continue to move upward in the midst of high quality (high protein) imports from Australia. There is a demand from the Food Corporation...
Market Commentary
Fund selling continued overnight and today, which pushed corn, soybean and wheat futures sharply lower and at/or below key technical support. There were se...
2015 Crop Comparison
At a meeting of farmers this week in southeastern North Dakota, which was sponsored by the regional Farm Business Management group from the local college,...
Senate Action; ROW Subsidy; No Warnings
Congressional Democrats are reportedly pressuring the Obama administration to deny the domestic pharmaceutical industry's ambition of acquiring longer pate...