The Organic Trade Association issued a study showing that income was higher and poverty lower in the 225 counties with significant organic food production...
Articles
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
It was another blowout kind of a day for the soy complex with grain futures attempting to follow. Once again, overnight trading and price action provided l...
Bigger than TTIP; Milk Fight; Beer Fear
While Washington and Brussels are blaming one another for the lack of progress in the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) negotiations an...
What is Weather Worth?
Although this bull market has been driven at least in part by speculative money from noncommercial traders, it could not have survived as long and as stron...
Oilseed Highlights
A European environmental group, Transport & Environment (T&E), claims the EU biodiesel industry has sharply increased its usage of palm oil as a fe...
GAO to Investigate Cattle Market
The GAO announced yesterday that it has accepted the Senate Judiciary Committee’s request, spearheaded by a letter it received in January from R-CALF USA,&...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Brazil’s soybean market keeps heating up with the basis showing a regular daily increase as the old crop offer is being reduced due to the very negative or...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russia's domestic grain prices continued to rise due to the decreasing stocks and offers of the 2015 production. However, barley prices started dropp...
Market Commentary
The placid overnight trading pattern was quickly cast aside as the day session opened. Renewed fund buying and bull spreading of soybeans and then corn qui...
Topsy-Turvy; CAP 2020; Mad Meat Blockades
The EU has opened debate on the next (2020) iteration of the Common Agricultural Policy, and some want it to look more like U.S. policy. Topsy-Turvy Politi...
Market Commentary
Market bulls are receiving no help from the weather outlook, and the generally softer prices seen during most of the day session are a sign of that. The ab...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Vague Law; Leap; Fool’s Gold; Commoditization
Greens and others in Canada have dreamed up what is termed the “Leap Manifesto,” which they contend would move society closer to utopia, and their aspirati...
Oilseed Highlights
Brazil’s farmers would be expected to sharply boost their soybean plantings in the upcoming crop year as a result of the high prices. However, they may be...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
USDA FAS published a report this week on the Egyptian program of land reclamation. The report points out that if the planned 630,000 hectares of desert are...
Supreme Court Rules on WOTUS
The Supreme Court weighed in today on the Waters of the United States (WOTUS) wetlands regulatory rule. At issue was whether final agency action by the Arm...
World Soybean Outlook for 2016/17
WASDE projections of record-large world production in 2016/17 still leading to an 8 MMT reduction in ending soybean supplies painted a tempting picture for...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Foodsuasion; Risky Purchase II
A key hindrance to the EU extending the approved use of glyphosate in Brussels is coming from German politicians. They do not accept the opinion of Europe&...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
India’s pulses demand is close to 24 MMT with current production stagnant at about 17-18 MMT, leading the country to be a net importer. Now Canada, Austral...
Market Commentary
Markets were relatively quiet today. USDA announced the sale of 100,000 MT of soymeal to unknown. That was enough to generate light fund buying that held s...
U.S. Corn and Soybean Export Objective Too Small
There is no question that U.S. corn and soybean exports will be greater than anticipated even a month ago in USDA’s May WASDE, largely because of some sign...
Corn Shortage in Brazil Impacting Livestock and Wheat
Several factors have contributed to Brazil's bullish corn market, squeezing chicken and hog producers. In turn, this is having an impact on wheat prices th...
Market Commentary
It was another see-saw type of day for grain and soy markets that started out higher across the board during an active overnight session. Wheat was the unl...
Oilseed Highlights
The rich countries of Europe along with some developing nations in Asia and Africa continue to oppose the planting, and in some cases the consumption, of G...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
USDA to Re-Propose GIPSA Rule
The rule was first proposed in June 2010, per congressional direction in the 2008 Farm Bill. Specifically, Congress directed USDA to look at five issues re...
Commodity Speculation and the Real World
The Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Index was up about 10 percent during the 5 April-25 May period with much of that increase due to soybeans, meal and corn. The p...
Brexit Blunder; Quotas
A British decision to leave (Brexit) the European Union may or may not lead to more positive outcomes in terms of the country’s economics or domestic harmo...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Milling wheat prices started decreasing at the Ukrainian Black Sea (UBS) ports, mainly due to the exhaustion of export potential and the resultant lower de...
Market Commentary
Both the soybean and soymeal markets rallied overnight as the Dalian soymeal market prices stabilized amid another session of record trading volume. Undoub...
Fishy Cat Fight; EU for TTIP; Blame Shifting
The U.S. Senate approved (55 to 43) a measure today that would end USDA’s inspection of imported catfish and move the responsibility back to the FDA from w...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
The corn situation in Argentina is not improving yet, and some are starting to think that the lineups will not ease until at least the end of July. Meanwhi...
U.S. AB Repeat; Unsustainable Demand; Xenophobes for the TPP
The EU reportedly described the U.S. effort at blocking an additional term for Korean Seung Wha Chang on the WTO Appellate Body as “unprecedented,” and Jap...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
Everyone likes a little market excitement, but the back-and-forth price swings experienced today pushed the needle on that meter higher than it has been fo...
Dairy a Winner Under the TPP
The U.S. dairy sector is a big winner under the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), according to the recently released analysis of the agreement by the U.S. I...
World Corn Outlook for 2016/17
USDA's projections for world corn production and consumption in 2016/17 are similar in pattern to those for 2015/16. However, there is a wild card in that...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
For the past few years, Egypt has been one of the top two importers of U.S. 60 percent protein corn gluten meal (CGM). However, the sudden rally in those p...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
New crop (July/August) feed wheat is offered at $170 FOB in Ukraine and Bulgaria. Bulgarian origin has a €12 advantage over the Ukrainian to EU destination...
Excessive Rain More of a Concern Today
The eastern Corn Belt struggled early with cool temperatures and wet conditions that delayed planting progress. May has been drier, though, and parts of th...
Ethanol Roundup
The U.S. EPA is looking at “several changes” to the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) in order to “resolve outstanding issues” and “provide clarification” on i...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
China In-Country Analysis
While apple shipments to China pale in value and volume compared with other commodities, they are an important proxy for value goods as this fruit is a pre...
Market Commentary
Soybean futures were down as much as 20-22 cents at mid-morning, and that weakness in the soy complex kept wheat lower all day. Meanwhile, corn was very re...
Market Commentary
It was a very active night session with soymeal setting new highs in the July contract, trading $8-10 higher. That had soybean futures 12 cents higher with...
Weather and Yields
Summer weather and yield potential will be next on the market’s agenda, and there has been much hype about the shift in weather patterns from El Nino to La...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
While India continues to import large quantities of palm oil, considered unhealthy by many and mostly used domestically as a base for mixed vegetable oils,...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
AB Politics; Government Money; Exporter of Death
A draft EU-backed study of the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) oddly concludes that the pact will actually raise the cost of food and...
Snapshot of Credit Situation
There are plenty of worries about credit access and conditions in the agriculture sector. The Senate Agriculture Committee held a hearing yesterday on the...
March of Luddites; Shallow Politics
It is easier for politicians to embrace a false perception of the past than to work on a policy approach whereby productivity gains and its associate...
RFS Proposal Impacts Feed
U.S. EPA’s 2017 proposed Required Volume Obligations (RVOs) for the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) implies a likely increase in conventional&nbs...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy markets took little notice of the Fed’s bullish influence on the U.S. dollar yesterday, but that was not the case as the day session got unde...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Oilseed Highlights
Private analysts in Argentina indicate that country will not be able to meet its soybean export commitment in the current marketing year because it lacks a...
World Trends
The ebb and flow of world trade of grains and oilseeds is one of the more important determinants of domestic prices in major producing and exporting countr...
Market Commentary
It can’t be said that the increased prospects of a Fed interest rate hike in June had any real impact on grain and soy markets today. Prices were slightly...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Origination has become very expensive for soybean exporters in Argentina. The FAS market keeps climbing as farmers are not eager to sell aggressively. In t...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
ITC on TPP; EWG Hag; Bear View
The supply side looks a mess as agricultural production outpaces demand. Rabobank even notes the expansion in poultry production by non-traditional supplie...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Wheat (milling and feed) and corn prices continued to rise in RUB expression at the Russian grain market, although at a higher rate than previously. They a...
Blairo Maggi New Brazilian Ag Minister
During his political career, Maggi made waves by supporting President Lula’s re-election because of the latter's commitment to growing the soybean industry...
Oilseed Highlights
Monsanto today announced it has suspended sale of future biotech soybean technologies in Argentina because of recent, disappointing discussions with the go...
ITC Prompts TAA; Glyphosate Safe Again; Regulatory Coherence
Tomorrow is the day that the U.S. International Trade Commission (ITC) is expected to issue its impact analysis of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) agre...
World Soybean Outlook
USDA’s world 2016/17 soybean supply/demand projections provide a good benchmark from which to weigh potential, real changes in both. The soybean market see...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Millers and grain traders in Zimbabwe have set a minimum purchase price for local maize of $335/MT, which is lower than the $390/MT that the government has...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
The current mood of grain and soy futures markets seems mainly unaffected by details of planting progress and beneficial weather as today’s price action de...
More Things to Keep You Up at Night
The U.S. hard red winter wheat crop is likely getting larger. Barring a wet weather pattern during the harvest period, the last issue is what the market ca...
China In-Country Analysis
While China's President Xi is driven to implement economic and agricultural policy reforms that will deleverage the Chinese economy and take away the loose...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
France’s exports to non-EU destinations have significantly increased during the last month as its wheat is competitive against Black Sea origins. Algeria b...
Voter Crop Insurance Poll
With the possibility of an ag appropriations bill markup this week in the Senate and discussion already started about the next farm bill, National Crop Ins...
Farm Dust; New Rules; Pick a Veep
NASA has combined with Columbia University to produce a study (Geophysical Research Letters), which claims that fine particulate matter from food productio...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
Markets traded lower much of today’s session. It seemed at times that they could make a significant move lower, but that sharper break just never happened...
Bill Proposed to Cap Ethanol under 10 Percent Blendwall
On Tuesday 10 May, House Representatives Bill Flores (R-Texas), Peter Welch (D-Vermont), Jim Costa (D-California), and Robert Goodlatte (R-Virginia) introd...
Risky Reading; Risky Purchase
The publication Consumers Report (CR) has long been depended upon for objective information about products for purchase, but it has become an unreliable so...
Market Commentary
Corn and wheat futures traded higher most of today’s session as the soy complex continued to struggle. Better harvest weather in Argentina coupled with mor...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Corn prices continued to be down during the first few weeks of the harvest in Bihar, but they have been moving up as demand increased once industries reali...
Big Production and Big Demand
While the May USDA WASDE numbers projected another season of record or near-record yields and production, there are implications for the margin of error be...
USTR to Challenge China over Chicken
The U.S. Trade Representative’s (USTR’s) office announced on 10 May that the U.S. will challenge China over its failure to bring its duties on U.S. chicken...
Grain Stocks Mythology
The concept of holding stocks of grain that can be used during times of need has a nice humanitarian ring to it. It only becomes a good deal less appealing...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
No Natural at All
The U.S. FDA has collected public comments and now must decide what the term “natural” means on a food label.The U.S. FDA has collected public comments and...
Oilseed Highlights
USDA is initially forecasting Brazil’s and Argentina’s soybean harvested area in 2017 will increase by 900,000 hectares and 50,000 hectares, respectively...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy complex prices firmed in overnight trade with the complex getting a big boost from the surging Dalian (DCE) soymeal contract, which closed up...
Snookering Public Stockholding
WTO members committed in the Nairobi Ministerial declaration to create a rule regarding a government’s right to use stockholding for food security purposes...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Ukraine's milling wheat prices increased slightly as did corn prices at the UBS ports due to export reasons. The milling rye market there remained stable a...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
The corn situation in Argentina is generating big losses throughout the entire chain. It started with farmers not harvesting and thus not delivering to por...
Market Commentary
Markets were considerably more relaxed today amid consolidating trade that saw both sides of yesterday’s closes before finishing mostly lower. However, tod...
F Bombs; Stiffing; Currency Manipulation; Market Forces
Beijing wants the U.S. to concede to China the status of being a “market economy” under the rules of the WTO, but it has a funny way of trying to sway Wash...
Oilseed Highlights
Monsanto today lowered its forecast for U.S. plantings of its Roundup Ready 2Xtend soybean this year from 3 million acres to 2 million acres. U.S. processo...
Market Commentary
The May WASDE with its first peak at supply/demand for the next crop year has a history of generating futures market volatility immediately following its r...
The May 2016 WASDE
This is always one of the most interesting of USDA’s monthly supply/demand reports as it is the first to provide the agency’s views of the next crop year a...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
U.S. corn exports to North Africa/Africa in the first quarter of 2016 are down 75 percent versus 2015, mainly due to reduced business with Algeria, Morocco...
Salacious Hamburger Study Could Follow Hot Dog Study in Media
Last October, the company Clear Labs of Menlo Park, California released the findings of its investigation into the molecular makeup of hot dogs. Industry s...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
EU Not Likely to Extend Biofuel Mandate After 2020
Leading the opposition was the UK, which the Department of Transport there indicates is preparing to offer legislative reforms to its own Renewable Fuel Tr...
Geography is Destiny
It has been periodically charged that USDA has a bias in favor of farmers over consumers, and the agency’s local effort is evidence of the difficulty...
USDA Report Preview
These reports will set the tone for the markets until and unless weather changes the dynamics of the yield estimates, but USDA's corn and soybean productio...
Market Commentary
Last week’s unexpectedly big hard red winter wheat yield forecast from the wheat tours kept pressure on wheat again today. The big rally in the U.S. dollar...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Considering the Black Sea's high level of old crop stocks held by farmers and the arriving big crops, the total feed wheat supply at the start of the 2016/...
China In-Country Analysis
U.S. DDGS export shipments to China in March fell to their lowest level since December 2014. However, the steady drop since last July suggests that the dra...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
CRP Enrollment Announced
This is the 30th anniversary of the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP), which was created in the 1985 Farm Bill, and enrollment was the most selective in i...
Market Commentary
Overnight markets were quiet and mixed in light volume. That all changed when the soy complex again started a significant rally in the first hour of today’...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
India's high domestic feed ingredient prices have spurred livestock farmer groups to ask that GOI allow imports that may have been produced using grain and...
Canadian Grain Stocks and U.S. Winter Wheat Production
While today’s Stats Canada stock numbers did not contain any signficant surprises, two crops showed an interesting change from last year. Meanwhile, this w...
TTIP Impasse; One Percenter Food; Border Trouble
Officials in the previous Commission at least attempted a small but overt effort to inform the European public and open minds to biotech; the current one i...
Small America; Tele-Protectionism; Chemical Organic
Big non-food companies suggesting the dismantling of the food system because it is also big is certainly a big idea, but it cannot be characterized as prag...
Ag Review: Global Wheat Markets and their Outlooks
Wheat Uncompeted Demand will grow, but wheat has been a loser in the competition against other commodities for profit and thus growing area. U.S. Wheat Sec...
Bulls and Bears
The history of commodity and financial markets during the past 45 years suggests that complacency just might be the speculator/investor’s worst enemy, and...
House Bill Targets FDA Veterinary Feed Directive
Last June, the U.S. FDA issued the final rule implementing the agency’s Veterinary Feed Directive (VFD) “to ensure the judicious use of medically important...
Market Commentary
It was sort of a crazy day for grain and soy markets. The overnight session saw higher prices across the board, and that trend accelerated early in the day...
Oilseed Highlights
China’s announcement that it was conducting an ant-dumping investigation of U.S. DDGS exports has impacted local importers' decisions, but other markets ar...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
The soy complex was once again supported by renewed strength of soymeal futures. It appeared that commercial end users were buying meal futures as protecti...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Too Big; Uncertainty; Sweet Revenues
A Chicago Booth survey of leading economists found that expertise caused both an increase and a decrease in certainty about the actual value of breaking up...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Processors' and traders' bid prices for soybeans on the Ukrainian domestic market rose to $374-394/MT EXW and $378-398/MT CPT, while CPT-port prices grew t...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Several exporters in Argentina expect the export program to end soon because of the drop in soybean production. Offers started to decrease this week, but t...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
The World Wheat Outlook
From 2013/14 through 2015/16, the world produced three record wheat crops in a row. 2016/17 production is unlikely to reach the level of 2015/16’s record 7...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Organic; Titanic TTIP Sinking
The truth is that the extreme low levels of quantification available via organic chemistry means that very little in the food system will test at pure or a...
Market Commentary
After reaching new rally highs overnight, the soybean and soymeal markets faltered soon after the day session opened. Meanwhile, good reports from the firs...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Morocco has decided to leave the soft wheat import tariff at 30 percent until the end of 2016. This resulted from the expected drop in the local wheat crop...
Oilseed Highlights
Mauricio Macri promised Argentina’s agricultural exports would increase sharply if he was elected president and eliminated export taxes. Data released by t...
Budget Process Reform and The Farm Bill
The U.S. Senate Budget Committee recently held four hearings regarding reform of the congressional budget process. There is general consensus that it has b...
Currencies; Politics; Principles; Economy
The U.S. Treasury Department’s annual report comes closer than any prior assessment in calling out key trading partners for currency manipulation. Name Cal...
Japan’s Economy and the TPP
While U.S. agriculture groups push for passage of the TPP, the longer-term stakes for restoring the Japanese economy, a major market for U.S. agricultural...
China In-Country Analysis
The April 2016 statistics for the Dalian Exchange show the impact of China’s move away from direct corn subsidies on a set floor price. The interesting thi...
Market Commentary
The soy complex, particularly soybean and soymeal futures, is where all the action continues to be. Soybean futures were lower overnight and traded down as...
U.S. Hard Red Winter Wheat Crop
USDA will release its first estimate of U.S. winter wheat production on 10 May, but this week’s Kansas crop quality tour will provide a reasonable idea of...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
The prevalence of drought news has prompted GOI to discuss agricultural policies regarding ways to save water and promote crops that can thrive under arid...
Yogurt Battle Epitomizes Trends in Food Industry
The recent moves by two of the top three players in the yogurt market, Chobani and Dannon, underscore the marketing battle to gain consumer confidence rega...
Market Commentary
Markets were active on this last trading day of the month, but volume was much closer to normal than some of the big days in recent weeks. Soybean, wheat a...
World Turns; Food Fix
The food sector overflows with idealism, and while one person, one vote makes sense in democratic politics, an equal vote by all shareholders in an economi...
More Things to Keep You Up at Night
There has been a great deal of chatter about the possible impact that the frenzied commodity speculation in China may have had on U.S. futures markets.It w...
Oilseed Highlights
Mercedes Benz has proposed to the Indian government that it shift its cars and other vehicles solely to biodiesel as a way to comply with a Supreme Court r...
The Chinese Conundrum
The impact that the state of the Chinese economy may have on its demand for physical commodities is obviously of key importance to how those products are v...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
One-Legged Stool; Sanctions Circumvention
The post-Doha agenda for the WTO is unclear, but EU Trade Minister Cecelia Malmström laid out Europe’s vision for where the organization should focus. One...
Market Commentary
Price action in overnight trading of CME grain and soy contracts was mixed with minor changes. USDA’s weekly export sales report was the main fundamentally...
GAO to Investigate Beef Market
Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) wrote to the Government Accountability Office (GAO) last week regarding a study of last year's...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
The Ukrainian corn market showed significant changes as prices grew on all terms of trade due to high demand from exporters. That same demand drove the cou...
Market Commentary
The day session produced a bias toward lower prices, although nothing remotely close to a market collapse. Soybean futures prices were off about 17 cents a...
Slaying the Goose; FDA out to Lunch
Every food has been genetically modified, and the use of the term “natural” is one of the most litigious in food marketing. Even labeling food as non-GMO i...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Weather conditions have improved in Argentina since last week, but the soybean harvest is still far behind. Approximately 4 MMT were lost because of the fl...
Market Commentary
The market was nervous about its direction today because of the relatively weak closes yesterday when soybeans went from up 30+ cents to up 12-15 cents. So...
NOSB Snob; TTIP Lobby
The National Organic Standards Board (NOSB) is predicted to have a contentious meeting when it gathers this week for its semi-annual subjective opining of...
Farm Credit Situation
Both Farmer Mac and commercial banks reported a 7 percent increase in agriculture-related loans last year versus 2014. With an outlook for depressed commod...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Egypt reports that it has purchased approximately 57,000 MT of local wheat in the first 10 days of buying against a target of 4 MMT by 31 July 2016. Howeve...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Oilseed Highlights
A consortium that includes Brazil’s Universidade Federal de Viçosa, DuPont Pioneer and 2Blades (a non-profit organization) indicates it has developed a soy...
Transatlantic Tete-a-Tete
Fearing that American agriculture’s concerns may get overlooked in a final push to complete the TTIP this year, 26 U.S. senators sent a letter to U.S...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
The old crop feed wheat and corn market in the Black Sea is much firmer because of slow farmer selling and short covering demand. This has impacted the inv...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Final Stages of Presidential Primaries: The Road Ahead
Tomorrow could be a big step toward clearing the picture on the Republican side, or it may leave the waters muddied. Either way, the states remaining with...
China In-Country Analysis
After a tepid first quarter, demand from China's feed industry picked up considerably last week and decreased the nation’s estimated soymeal inventor...
Market Commentary
Markets were quietly lower overnight, but that pattern quickly changed with this morning’s opening. Accelerated buying took soybeans and corn to 30-cent pl...
The Funds Are Back
Markets crashed last Friday when the fund buying dried up, so the sharply higher trade this morning caught the market by surprise. What seems to be clear i...
New Dairy Feed to Milk Margin Bill Introduced
One of the issues carried over from the 2012 Farm Bill to the 2014 version was the new Dairy Margin Protection Program (DMP), which provides margin insuran...
Christmas in April
Regardless of what has caused or created this recent market rally, it has brought an enormous Christmas present to farmers and agricultural bankers in the...
Market Commentary
The soy complex crumbled sharply lower overnight as funds turned from big buyers to moderate sellers. Soybeans then opened this morning with moderate losse...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Under normal circumstances, India's chickpea prices tend to move lower as arrivals peak. Contrary to that, though, NCDEX spot prices in New Delhi are up 18...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Inconsistencies; Another View; Look Out Corn; Largess
U.S. and EU political leaders and trade negotiators begin critical Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) meetings this weekend, and the cha...
Oilseed Highlights
Today’s planting intentions report by Statistics Canada indicated Canadian farmers intend to plant more corn and pulses but less oilseeds this year than la...
Price Risk and World Wheat Trade: Part II
Can a commercially useful world wheat contract be created? It would have to be a contract that attracted widespread commercial participation from buyers an...
Market Commentary
Corn couldn’t participate in the soybean rally even when the soy complex was super strong overnight.. Markets opened lower and traded with sharp early loss...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Another Report on Meat and Sustainability
After the U.S. Dietary Guidelines Advisory Committee (DGAC) initially dropped meat from its dietary recommendations, the World Resources Institute (WRI) re...
TTIP Day of Reckoning
German Economy Minister Sigmar Gabriel attempted to put the U.S. in the defensive position on Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) negotia...
Pigs Fly; TPP Brick Wall
The U.S. House Appropriations Committee approved a bill funding agriculture for FY 2017, and the effort included a couple of notable fights.The U.S. House...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Floods have ruined an important part of Argentina’s seeded soybean area, and farmers are now selling their stocks at $250/MT compared with $217/MT FAS at R...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Wheat and corn prices in the Russian market decreased insignificantly last week, while barley and milling rye prices remained stable. However, all prices g...
Market Commentary
The main signal from the overnight trade was the continued heavy trading volume. The day session also opened with grain prices edging higher and mixed but...
Elliott; Steel Cotton; Imprecise Futures; Cuban Smoke
Efforts by the new government in Argentina to assume the inspection of soybeans and to deter the ability of technology providers in obtaining royalties for...
Oilseed Highlights
India has suffered from droughts during the past two years, reducing its production of lentils, peas and other pulse crops that are diet staples for many t...
Ag Appropriations Bill Before House Appropriations Committee
The House Appropriations Committee was marking up the FY 2017 Agricultural Appropriations Bill this afternoon. It totals $21.3 billion in discretionary fun...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Turkey’s wheat production should reach 19.5 MMT in 2015/16, according to the latest USDA-FAS report on that country. However, that volume could drop to 17...
Market Commentary
Soy complex futures prices jumped very sharply higher in aggressive trading, and wheat futures prices also advanced smartly. Corn futures prices were highe...
Market Bulls Grow Their Horns
Supply/demand analyses require a considerable amount of subjectivity and guesswork, while prices and price changes are facts. All of this leads us to consi...
Market Commentary
Wheat had an interesting trading day today. Chicago led the rally because that’s where the funds are short about 500 million bushels of futures. Short cove...
Shorts; Boiling Red; Report Value
Sweden is seeking a European Union ban on the importation of live Maine lobster. It charges that the Homarus americanus is an invasive species that gets lo...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
2018 Farm Bill Debate Underway
The current farm bill took two years of debate and negotiations to finish, and now stakeholders are already getting involved two years later in farm policy...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
The Egyptian GASC bought 120,000 MT of Romanian wheat and 55,000 MT of Ukrainian last week at an average price of $192.12 CNF. The prices offered are at le...
China In-Country Analysis
For the second consecutive week, the average domestic corn price fell RMB 10/MT ($1.50/MT) last week to RMB 1780/MT ($274.20/MT). Since the beginning of Ap...
More Things to Keep You Up at Night
Brazil’s lower house voted last night to impeach President Dilma Rousseff, and the Senate now has 10 sessions to decide if it wishes to move forward with t...
Market Commentary
Markets were steady to slightly weaker overnight following the weak closes on Thursday. Corn and soybean markets then shifted again this morning as funds b...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Attitude Change?
This week provided a very good demonstration of how quickly attitudes and prices can change. The soybean rally continued to gain strength and set new highs...
Brazil’s President Rousseff Facing Impeachment
Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff''s story is fascinating. It is an epic saga of sorts, much in the mold of South America’s political turmoil from the mid...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
While government of India (GOI) data might indicate adequate plant protein availability for the livestock sector, actual domestic production suggests other...
GMO Go; Better MTB Process
Low commodity prices may be leading farmers to plant seeds less expensive than GM varieties, but technology is winning in other ways. Anti-GMO Takes Hits L...
Market Commentary
After the giddy rally of the last four sessions, grain and soy futures markets finally paused to catch their breath today. It did not happen early in the o...
Oilseed Highlights
Argentine Minister of Agriculture Ricardo Buryaile has signed a resolution aimed at stopping companies from collecting royalties on their patented biotech...
Animal Welfare for Organic Production
Although the organic industry generally has expressed support for USDA’s move in tightening the animal handling standards, there have been some concerns fr...
China’s Compliance and Market Signals; Urban Agriculture
While China has a full bag of tricks to limit its exposure to imports when it wants to, Beijing is quicker to come into compliance with adverse WTO decisio...
Price Risk and World Wheat Trade: Part One
At one time, Chicago wheat futures (now the CME wheat contracts) provided a price discovery function for most world buyers and sellers. However, the CME SR...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Domestic prices on the Ukrainian grain market fluctuated insignificantly last week. Some traders continued raising bid prices for wheat without changing th...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
The corn situation in Argentina is becoming more complicated because of the heavy rains over agricultural areas and numerous vessels arriving at the ports...
Chemicals; China Barriers; Farm Bill; Too Late
The U.S. House Agriculture Committee plans hearings on the downturn in the farm economy, and discussions have already begun on the new farm bill to be writ...
Market Commentary
The Great Grain and Soy Rally of 2016 continued in full force again in overnight trading and during the day session. Overnight trading volume was heavy, es...
Oilseed Highlights
This year Monsanto expects up to 35 million acres of Intacta soybeans to be planted in Brazil and the area to increase to 75 million acres by 2019. That’s...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Corn Dumping; TPP; Shackled; Compromise
The U.S. dollar is at an eight-month low against a basket of currencies, and speculation is increasing about interventions by other governments to countera...
The April WASDE
USDA released its April 2016 WASDE today. If anything, the report carried a slightly bearish tone. Despite this, markets traded strongly higher today, both...
Biodiesel: RFS, Tax Credit and Imports
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has released the first month’s data on biodiesel, and it is interesting to look at three key factors in th...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Italy is looking at three zone developments related to agricultural logistics in Egypt with one project for wheat and grain said to be likely in the Red Se...
Market Commentary
The soybean market is in the grips of a strong technical rally that has pushed futures prices to their highest levels in more than six months. Soybean futu...
Equities Bullish, Commodities Bearish
All four living (current and past) Federal Reserve chairs discussed investors’ perception of the economy last week and agreed that the U.S. economy is soun...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
The combination of the lower U.S. corn price and a firmer EUR versus the USD raised the theoretical import levy to about €5/MT. The actual levy is currentl...
Market Commentary
Soybean futures put in a new high overnight, and that strength followed through today. Funds are also long soybean and soymeal futures, and this chart patt...
China In-Country Analysis
China’s estimated soymeal inventories fell sharply last week for the first time since the end of February. They have totaled more than 1 MMT since the week...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Subsidies for Niche Marketing
USDA is boasting that at 12 percent per year, organic farming is “one of the fasting-growing segments of American agriculture." It also claims to hav...
Of Funds and Canada
Managed money continues to press the short side of corn and wheat futures while buying soybean and soyoil futures. In the meantime, Canada’s acreage is sta...
The “New” Soybean Outlook
WPI's acreage estimate is based on the belief that the very wet conditions across the Delta will result in acres shifting back to soybeans from corn. The k...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
After two failed monsoons and higher food demand for its population of 1.26 billion, India is gradually becoming a net importer as the country's water cris...
Ag Review: Immigration Issues around the World
The Immigration Debate and Agriculture Fundamental changes will impact the migration debate, including in agriculture. Immigration Challenges in Russia and...
Market Commentary
Crude oil was soaring today with gains of more than $2.00 a barrel, and that set the tone for everything else. However, corn couldn’t follow wheat or soybe...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Ethanol and Biodiesel Rail Shipments
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has added data on rail movements of ethanol and biodiesel to its monthly Petroleum Supply Monthly (PSM) re...
Eating Disorders
If a centrally-controlled government like China’s cannot persuade consumers as to the safety of biotechnology, it stands no chance in the tabloid-dri...
Dubious Organic Animal Standard; Brussels Ignores Deadlines
The EU is once again delaying the approval of feed ingredient imports derived from biotech crops despite their science-based proof of safety. Dubious Organ...
Market Commentary
Overnight trade in grains and the soy complex found both sides of Wednesday’s closes in below average volume. However, corn prices never fell far from the...
Oilseed Highlights
While a Chinese ag ministry official indicated today that the government plan is to boost domestic soybean production for food purposes rather than reduce...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
USDA Meat/Livestock Trade Update; China’s Beef Facilities; Cage-Free Eggs
It was announced today that China bought a feed lot and three meatpacking plants in Argentina for $75 million, a move that is expected to help the Argentin...
Dealing With the Next Global Food Crisis
In January 2016, the Council on Foreign Relations held a workshop to look at volatility in food prices and its consequences with an emphasis on food crises...
U.S. Trade Policy; China GMO Policy
The U.S. trade deficit is growing worse as the U.S. dollar stays strong and the economy stands out from many others. This trend will eventually feed back i...
Market Commentary
The corn market edged higher, although there was not much in the way of fresh input. Corn spreads tightened somewhat as corn shorts began to roll their pos...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Wheat, corn and barley prices at the Russian market continued to drop (in RUB expression) during the week in review, while rye prices remained unchanged. H...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Oilseed Highlights
With China's announcement last week regarding a change in its income support policy for farmers, local analysts predict a notable shift in their planting d...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
In Brazil, the soybean market keeps focused on the spot. This week there were several trades at levels of +55 SK for Santos and +54 SK for Rio Grande. The...
U.S. Wheat Outlook
The 2016/17 U.S. wheat crop will clearly be small, but it appears unlikely that this will provide fundamental support for a bull wheat market. The anticipa...
Cheaper Oil's Impact on U.S. Exports
This is a new era in energy and specifically crude oil, which is having an effect on total U.S. exports as well as those from the ag sector.USDA today rele...
Root of Problems; Worth Its Salt
The Obama administration is under intense pressure over the political prospects for the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and Transatlantic and Trade Investm...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Stress-tolerant maize being developed for use in Africa, which has as many as 70 strains, is believed to be capable of combating a number of serious growin...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
The feature of the day session was the sharp drop of soyoil prices, largely the result of fund selling. Corn closed a couple of cents higher, helped by som...
Beef Herd and Demand Both Make a Comeback
While the March WASDE report projected U.S. beef consumption will increase for the first time since 2006, the U.S. cattle herd is also expanding after reac...
The “New” Corn Outlook
Instead of steady or a slight reduction in corn acres, the U.S. farmers surveyed by USDA in early March said they intended to boost plantings by 5.6 millio...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Bulgaria has been officially added to the list of potential suppliers in the GASC tenders, which is good news for the country’s milling wheat farmers. Howe...
Transatlantic Strategies; Winners and Losers
The European Union is considering a plan whereby dairy cooperatives voluntarily reduce production in the face of slumping prices. Rebalancing supply and de...
Market Commentary
Everything turned lower in the first hour-and-a-half of today’s trade. Soybeans actually led the break when the weekly export inspections report showed jus...
China In-Country Analysis
China’s State Council has approved the National Resource Defense Council’s (NRDC’s) proposed 2016 soybean target price of RMB 4,800/MT ($732.50/MT), which...
More Things to Keep You Up at Night
While the amount of frost-freeze damage to certain crops is unknown at this time and drought continues to be an issue in some key regions, the planting int...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
India's sugar price has improved considerably in the past three months, rising 15.9 percent from a low spot price of $466.20/MT in Kolhapur (Maharashtra) o...
Market Commentary
Today’s trade was much more reserved, but volume was again well above average. Funds continued to slowly add to their long soybean position, now reportedly...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
U.S. Senate Election Outlook
Of the 34 seats up for reelection this year, 24 are held by the Republicans and only 10 by the Democrats. That certainly gives the latter more chances for...
WOTUS; Trade Angst; Survey Says
Aggies were greatly dismayed when the U.S. Supreme Court passed on hearing their challenge of U.S. EPA’s regulatory approach to cleaning up the Chesapeake...
Market Commentary
The way the futures market reacted to today USDA's reports, it seems that it was not only starved for fresh fundamental news, but it was also eager to be s...
Trade’s Benefits; Twisted Thinking
The recommendation of a regulatory reform council in Japan in relation to the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) is an example of how newly-created comp...
Oilseed Highlights
A WTO dispute settlement panel ruled yesterday on the complaint filed by Argentina in December 2013 regarding the EU antidumping tariffs implemented agains...
China as Potential Top Pork Importer; U.S. Meat Production
China now consumes about half of the world’s pork and has a growing demand into the future that can’t be sustained by small farms that also have an outsize...
Quarterly Stocks and Acreage Intentions
The long-awaited March planting intention estimates and 1 March quarterly stocks estimates from USDA were released at noon (EDT), which should provide mark...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Ukrainian milling wheat prices quoted by traders grew as did those at the UBS ports. Traders’ feed wheat bid prices also increased along with export prices...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Farm and Trade Policy Tipping Points
Current farm policy is a vestige of a bygone era when caloric deficits were tangible and the tools of risk management and market information were imprecise...
Market Commentary
Speculative soybean longs do not appear very worried about tomorrow’s stocks and acreage numbers. However, the history of periodic 1 March corn stock surpr...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
The last week was very surprising for corn in Argentina as well as Brazil and also an important factor in the big heat up in premiums. Despite the size of...
The Transition Reports
The nature of agricultural markets is to always look ahead, and USDA's 1 March reports, especially the planting intentions, that will be released this Thur...
Therapeutic Nonuse; China Corn
Glyphosate is now under intensified scrutiny in the U.S. as the inspector general for the U.S. EPA announces an investigation into how well the agency has...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
According to the latest USDA country brief, Saudi Arabia will import just over 17 MMT of grain in 2015/16: 8.5 MMT of barley, 3.5 MMT of corn, 3.3 MMT of w...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
The rally of grain and soy futures prices marches on in a manner not seen since last summer. Again, the charge has been led by soyoil with the May contract...
U.S.-Argentina Trade and Investment Framework
The new U.S.-Argentina cooperative agreement is wide-ranging and covers areas such as technical assistance in domestic economic reform, global development...
Oilseed Highlights
The Genetic Engineering Appraisal Committee (GEAC), the government of India’s regulator responsible for issuing clearances for field trials of GM crops and...
Tough Time to Make a Profit
There’s no question that big profits were made during the boom times and balance sheets looked wonderful. The problem is that money is now going out the do...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
China In-Country Analysis
The estimated average utilization rate of China's soybean processing industry decreased sharply last week as a majority of those facilities ceased producti...
2016 Fuel Consumption Track
Gasoline futures prices are now higher than ethanol futures prices for the first time in more than six months, a change being driven by a number of factors...
Market Commentary
This was a more interesting day in the markets. Corn and soybean futures were slightly lower overnight with wheat slightly higher. Wheat then found more ag...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Egypt's GASC purchased 60,000 MT of French wheat last week at $189.20 CNF after receiving seven offers in total. The fact that the GASC preferred to buy ju...
Perpetuating Inequities; Wrong Tree
American public attitude surveys show a continuing slide in public support for free trade, and that decline is encouraging politicians to use trade as a ne...
Market Commentary
Overnight trade in grains and the soy complex were mixed and directionless as markets began to wind down ahead of the long holiday weekend. Things perked u...
Trade Policy; Change; Labeling Ruse
The Japanese refuse to liberalize rice imports, the Americans won’t budge on sugar subsidies and export credits, and Europe will never accept GMOs or hormo...
Oilseed Highlights
Some elevators are warning farmers that they will not accept soybeans produced from Monsanto’s Roundup Ready 2Xtend strain unless it gains approval from th...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Pork Outlook
USDA’s quarterly Hogs and Pigs report will be released tomorrow, and the market expects the data will be in accordance with the department's long-term base...
China’s New Farm Policies – Maybe
China has been using its version of crop price supports to achieve income support and experienced a similar progression of results as occurred in the U.S...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Wheat and barley prices at the Russian market continued to decrease (in RUB expression). Rye and corn prices grew, however, with the latter showing a signi...
Cuban Paradise; Choco Diet; Deniers; Jobs
When the Soviet Union collapsed, Cuba was forced to grow crops without inputs like chemicals or machinery – making it an organic mecca. To the Big Ag commu...
Market Commentary
This week’s Turnaround Tuesday did not occur until today, Wednesday, but turning around is what grain and soy futures prices did amid moderate trading volu...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
There was an FOB cargo of soybeans traded in Santos this week at +55 or 56 SK for April, while paper was bid at +50 SK. This seems to indicate port premium...
Oilseed Highlights
Palm oil futures prices rose today to a two-year high as a result of increased exports and expectations that production will decline because of reduced rai...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading volumes were not impressive, and this pattern continued during the day session. Noncommercial support sent soybean futures prices up 12 c...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Egypt reports that current wheat supplies are sufficient until July 2016 and that it is planning to purchase 4-4.5 MMT of local stocks during the April-Jul...
The Fading Cuban Embargo
The purpose of the Cuban embargo was to enable the Eisenhower and Kennedy administrations to showcase their stance against evil communism, while the advert...
TTIP Frustration; Mercosur; Labels; Fraud
In a signal that frustration is growing on the American side over Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) negotiations, U.S. Ambassador to th...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
President Visits Cuba; Ag Secretary Signs Technical MOU
Since trade in agriculture and medicine was authorized in 2000, U.S. ag exports to Cuba grew to a high point of $685 million in 2008 before dropping steadi...
Market Commentary
Corn had a relatively quiet trading day, but the market was firm the entire session. The strong wheat market in the early part helped corn as did the stron...
Cattle on Feed Report
Last month's feeder calf placements data points to a changing supply situation for the beef market next quarter. Similarly, feedlots' fed cattle marketings...
Wheat Could Get More Interesting
While the quick cold snap that occurred this weekend over the U.S. hard red winter wheat region had been forecast, the problem was that actual temperatures...
China In-Country Analysis
U.S. ethanol exports to China soared to 111,426,533 liters in January (+178 percent) at an average price of $.38 per liter ($482.69/MT). As there are only...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
The EU allocated 85,000 MT of “zero duty” import licenses for Ukrainian wheat, leaving a balance of only 140,000 MT under that quota for the rest of the ca...
Food Symptom – Economic Cause
For Cuba as with all other nations, adverse economic policy is the disease; poverty and hunger are the resulting symptoms.U.S. aggies have pitched their ho...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
India's parliamentary committee on ethanol blending is not happy about the Ethanol Blending Program (EBP) and its current status. It wants a plan within th...
Soybeans Keep Ticking
A record soybean crop in Brazil and another or near-record one in Argentina, coupled with U.S. soybean ending supplies projected to double from last year,...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
House Budget Committee Approves Budget Resolution
Rep.Marlin Stutzman (R-Indiana) and Rep. Dave Brat (R-Virginia) joined all Democrats on the committee in rejecting the budget plan, which may be indicative...
Market Commentary
The soybean market tried to sustain a rally. The new crop November contract even scored a four-month high, while May again bumped up against resistance at...
Macroeconomics; Sugar Sin Tax; Dairy Pushers
Dairy producers are pushing back against a World Health Organization (WHO) proposal that would discourage what it terms “inappropriate” promotion of manufa...
Oilseed Highlights
Because of the huge drop in India’s exports of non-biotech soymeal, animal feeders in Europe seeking imports of that variety have had to find alternative o...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
Whether or not the luck of the Irish was involved on this St. Patrick’s Day, the lowered economic forecast from the Fed yesterday sent the U.S. dollar into...
FAPRI Beef and Pork Projections Diverge from USDA’s
The Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) at the University of Missouri has issued its 10-year baseline projections for U.S. agricultural...
The GMO Labeling Debate
GMO labeling is an emotionally thorny issue that is argued on the basis of food safety, but it has moved well beyond the science that should be the determi...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading in grain and soy futures found prices generally lower amid what can best be described as a lack of interest. That interest did not accele...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
There were many soybean trades in Argentina last week. Cargoes were sold at levels of 10 SN for April and May shipment, but most interesting were the three...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Grain prices continued to drop overall (with the exception of milling wheat) at both the Russian and Ukrainian grain markets due to the strengthening local...
Rhetorical Context; GMO Label Endgame
A national rule on GMO labeling is inevitable. Today’s loss in the Senate by a compromise backed by aggies but opposed by most Democrats means one of...
Market Commentary
The daily trading ranges were just 3 cents for corn and 6-7 cents for both wheat and soybeans. In closing mostly a bit lower, grains and soybeans joined wi...
Label Compromise; TPP Polling; Miscellany
A recent survey by Pat Cadell (23 February – 3 March 2016) of 1,950 Americans explained much about the politics of trade and the Trans-Pacific Partne...
Global Trade Slowing Down
Global trade is down across the board, but it is not a harbinger of doom and gloom nor an indication that an inevitable recession will befall the world eco...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Oilseed Highlights
USDA has reduced its forecast for U.S. soymeal usage in 2015/16 with a higher volume of canola meal imports from Canada cited as one of the reasons. Certai...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
The Turkish government has increased the local value-added tax (VAT) on imported DDGS and corn gluten feed in order to protect domestic soybean/sunseed cru...
A Few Odds and Ends
There have been various topics of interest and potential importance for commodity markets in the news during recent days with a few that particularly warra...
China In-Country Analysis
The lack of a clear direction from China’s central government regarding the unwinding of domestic corn reserves and the huge buildup of cornstarch inventor...
Ethanol Exports and Imports
While the 2015 U.S. ethanol exports total of 844 million gallons was 2 million gallons below the 846 million gallons in 2014, this was still only the third...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
Nearly all of the action today was in the corn pit, and there was a good volume of trade. Meanwhile, wheat finished the day with decent gains in Minneapoli...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
The EU allocated 991,000 MT of wheat export licenses last week, a decline from 1.6 MMT during the same week a year ago that was largely due to the Russian...
Another Weather Outlook
Will this strong El Nino winter, which left super unusual weather patterns in its wake, affect the North American growing season?It is soon to be all about...
Market Commentary
Corn and soybean markets were steady to higher overnight, while wheat was slightly easier. That pattern held true today. Trading volume was pretty average...
More Things to Keep You Up at Night
Heading into the spring planting season, weather is starting to become at least interesting across the Northern Hemisphere. The U.S. winter wheat crop is g...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
As poultry meat demand continues to rise in India and with “safe food” a requirement of both the government and domestic customers, there could be opportun...
Attract Young Farmers, or Retain Middle-Aged Farmers?
Given the demographic history of farming in the post-World War II era, the actual issue may not be the number of new young farmers coming into the business...
Still More on Position Limits
Dodd-Frank required that the CFTC set speculative position limits for futures contracts based on physical commodities “where appropriate” in order to deter...
Miscellany
Following this week’s bilateral discussions, EU Trade Minister Cecelia Malmström says that the U.S. must acquiesce to even stronger protections of geograph...
Brazilian Real and the Global Broiler Market
There are three factors favoring Brazil's exports on the global broiler market, which are forecast to reach a record-high volume in 2016, and two are relat...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
Yesterday’s WASDE may not have given markets anything new, but today featured a notable amount of outside news for traders to ponder. Meanwhile, the U.S. d...
Oilseed Highlights
While farmers may have a positive view of the Indian government’s action on Tuesday that reduced the royalty Monsanto can charge for planting its patented...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
TPP Over-Enthusiasm; Trudeau and Dairy; Inequality
Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is pushing the Diet to ratify the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement during its current session in an effort to b...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Paraguay is still looking for soybean demand with offers at 38/40 SK for April-May and 42 SN for June-July shipments. Meanwhile, the market in Brazil has b...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Ukraine's domestic feed corn prices declined as a result of the stronger UAH, larger offer and lower export offer prices. Meanwhile, prices at the Ukrainia...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Argentina Will Take Years to Recover
It is easy to see the damage the policies of the Kirchner government have inflicted on the Argentine agricultural sector. The heretofore large export taxes...
Market Commentary
Soybean futures traded in a relatively narrow 8 cent range on both sides of Tuesday’s close before ending the session quietly with a small gain. As with co...
Mandatory QR; PC Ag; Ethanol Rent
The politicization of agriculture in Europe continues with a report by Reuters that the EU will not be extending the approved use of glyphosate through 203...
Ag Review: Opportunities in the Philippines
Sorting Through the Hazards With over 100 million people and an investment grade rating, the Philippines is an important player in the global agricultural...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
The overnight session saw grain and soy futures prices trade lower following Monday’s technically disappointing trade. That weakness carried into the early...
Too Short for Comfort
Under the seemingly endless barrage of bearish inputs and analysis, grain and soy prices have basically been headed downhill since last July. In this marke...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
According to the latest reports from Morocco, the 2016 wheat harvest could be 54 percent smaller than last year with possibly the lowest levels in four yea...
Chinese Chicken Imports
Following its audit in May 2015 to determine whether China maintains standards that conform with three key U.S. poultry inspection laws, FSIS has decided t...
Dereliction of Labeling Duty
USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack has chosen sides in the biotech labeling debate, and it is with the mandatory approach of his political compatriots in the Senat...
Senate Budget Committee Halts Budget Work on FY 2017 Resolution
U.S. Senate Budget Committee Chairman Michael Enzi (R-Wyoming) today announced that the committee will suspend any potential action on the FY 2017 federal...
March USDA WASDE
It's USDA report time again, and the trade will be closely watching the corn and soybean production estimates for Brazil and Argentina in addition to U.S...
China In-Country Analysis
For the second consecutive week, China's average domestic corn price dropped because of downward market pressure. The weekly wholesale price will likely fa...
Senate Budget Committee Halts Budget Work on FY 2017 Resolution
U.S. Senate Budget Committee Chairman Michael Enzi (R-Wyoming) today announced that the committee will suspend any potential action on the FY 2017 federal...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Market Commentary
Markets were higher overnight, and that buying followed through to today’s trade. There wasn’t any specifically bullish news, but there was a great deal of...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
The new crop (August/September) Bulgarian feed wheat traded at around €146-€147 ($160-$161) FOB last week, but the offers have climbed to €149 today. The m...
Continuing Pressure on the Short Side of Wheat
One of the important misconceptions regarding the wheat market today is that prices are low because world demand has slowed. This is simply not true by any...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
RINs and Taxes Pushing Ethanol Use in U.S. and Brazil
The bear market for crude oil is having its impact on biofuels around the globe. In the U.S., ethanol prices are higher than gasoline, putting a limit on d...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
India’s 2016/17 union budget was released and has been hailed as rural-centric with an emphasis on agricultural growth and sustainability. When the Modi go...
Buy High; Spinning out of Control
The recent announcement that Farmland Partners Inc. (FPI) just closed on a purchase of 22,100 acres in central Illinois in a deal valued at $197 million ($...
Market Commentary
Yesterday it was the wheat market putting on a sharp rally as funds moved to cover some of their vast short position. Today it was the soybean market’s tur...
Final COOL Rule; Chicken Supply; Eggs
One apparent impact from the repeal of COOL for beef and pork could be seen by reviewing the origin of feeder pig receipts. Among the 86,698 receipts, abou...
Market Commentary
Wheat gained a couple of cents in overnight trading, while corn and soybeans were up by fractions. However, the tone was set for the day session, which did...
Oilseed Highlights
The Chinese government’s efforts to restrict canola imports from Australia and Canada may be of benefit to the EU if Ukrainian rapeseed exports decrease as...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Tales from Export Sales
This week's Export Sales report from USDA offers insight into the grain market's likely price pattern going forward. Based on historic export patterns, U.S...
TPP Supports; GM Labeling; Ag-Less CFTC
U.S. commodity groups are beginning to realize that regional trade agreements like the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) that only deal with market access an...
Market Commentary
While grain and soy futures markets could not mount a successful rally yesterday as most outside markets did, prices for grains and the soy complex (except...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Less Bearish Thoughts; Cuba and Trumped
It is easy to become glum in this bearish market, but there is a sort of tarnished silver lining. Make Agriculture Great Again It is easy to become glum in...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Grain prices at the Russian market fluctuated insignificantly (in RUB expression) during the week in review. Meanwhile, the ag minister released a statemen...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
The Argentine soybean market was active this week with trades for April-July at levels of 6 SN for April and May, 10 SN for June and 14 for July FOB. At th...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Due to the current drought situation, South Africa will be relaxing some of its GM grain rules in order to allow maize imports from the U.S. and Mexico. Wh...
U.S. Agriculture Outlook: Part Two
When trying to determine future supply and demand, the usual question marks involve producer planting decisions as well as weather conditions during spring...
Market Commentary
With most outside markets trading higher today, grain and soy markets seemed poised for another “Turnaround Tuesday” rally effort. The best the corn market...
Heritage Foundation Budget Backs Off Ag Programs
The Heritage plan would cut federal spending by $10.5 trillion over 10 years and lead to a balanced budget by 2023. Given the source, surprisingly little o...
Bright Spots: TPP; GMO Pre-Emption; COOL
Everyone agrees that the U.S. Congress could not pass the Tran-Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement if it was presented for a vote today, but there is optim...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Heritage Foundation Budget Backs Off Ag Programs
The Heritage plan would cut federal spending by $10.5 trillion over 10 years and lead to a balanced budget by 2023. Given the source, surprisingly little o...
Oilseed Highlights
The Chinese government is tightening its phytosanitary inspections of rapeseed/canola from Canada and Australia, supposedly out of initial concern that&nbs...
Fuel Market Outlook for Ethanol
While its prices are down and squeezing margins, ethanol is still more expensive than gasoline, which limits discretionary blending. Moreover, production h...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
The remaining exportable wheat surplus in Serbia totals about 800,000 MT with approximately 500,000 MT exported since the start of the campaign. Despite th...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Loss Suits; Fourth Revolution
If the Internet is an example of how energy, mechanization and digitization can be melded to better inform the public, the lesson is that there is an equal...
Market Commentary
KC and Chicago wheat futures traded steady to slightly higher much of the session with Mpls under slight pressure. Today was also first notice day for deli...
China In-Country Analysis
The market has been closely watching how reform proposals noted in the central government’s No. 1 agricultural policy document will be implemented. Meanwhi...
Planting Intentions or Bankers’ Intentions?
It appears that there are bankers now offering farmers advice on what crops to plant along with their decisions regarding operating lines of credit.A call...
More On the Outlook Forum Numbers
The acreage numbers used weren’t surprising. The talk over most of the winter has been that U.S. farmers want to plant more corn. There might be some exter...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
The chemical sector is an integral part of the Indian economy. Because of the country's fuel blending program, though, it must rely on imports for a large...
Market Commentary
Corn was under some selling pressure all day, and trading volume was above average. Another very strong day for the U.S. dollar also helped preserve the be...
Crop Insurance and the Budget
Crop insurance has been the most popular risk management tool among producers over the past two farm bills. It has also been a program supported by most me...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Agricultural Outlook
USDA Chief Economist Robert Johansson tried to identify the silver lining this week, saying that input costs would be lower and off-farm income would be hi...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading was quiet with grains and soybeans holding small gains. The release of USDA’s acreage projections for 2016/17 gave markets something new...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Oilseed Highlights
USDA released its annual long-range projections for major U.S. crops earlier this week. While it does forecast a small boost in soybean yields, some life s...
U.S. Agriculture Outlook
USDA's Outlook Forum got underway this morning where its planted acreage and farmgate price projections were released. Unlike the initial and final estimat...
Renewed Hormone Retaliation; Farm Bill Subsidies
USDA reports that the Agriculture Risk Coverage and Price Loss Coverage programs in the 2014 Farm Bill cost $500 million dollars more than the direct payme...
Feeder Outlook; Red Meat Production; White Angus
Despite less expensive feed last year, high cattle prices until the end of the year kept feedlot margins mostly in the red. With an expanded cattle supply...
Market Commentary
Ongoing weakness in crude oil and financial markets put more downward pressure on grain and soy futures prices overnight. Then the mid-session rally of the...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentine corn premiums are coming down slowly from the high 50s to 48-50 CK for April and May shipment. It seems there are various buyers awaiting 40-45 C...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Ukraine's domestic milling wheat, feed wheat and feed barley prices all increased during 15-19 February as a result of the weakening national currenc...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Brexit Symbolism; GMO Hindsight
The UK’s Agriculture Ministry is apparently split over Brexit. Meanwhile, British farmers are no doubt frustrated with rules from Brussels such as the requ...
Argentina Update
Mauricio Marci was elected president of Argentina on 22 November 2015 based on a reform agenda he promised as a market-oriented conservative. Since he took...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
The latest FAO report on Iran’s grain crops shows small increases for all in 2015 with both wheat and barley production up about 7 percent. Overall 2...
Tiptoeing into Climatology
One of the most studied patterns used by climatologists is the El Nino-Southern Oscillation, commonly referred to as ENSO. However, there are other factors...
Market Commentary
It was Turnaround Tuesday with a vengeance. Prices were mostly lower but also largely lacking buyers or sellers in slow overnight trade. Corn posted an alm...
Oilseed Highlights
Brazilian farmers are increasingly concerned that some states are beginning to impose ICMS taxes (value-added taxes on sales and services) on commodities m...
Food Control; Export Taxes; Campaign Topics
Under pressure from European political leaders, the Continent’s food manufacturers have conceded to an effort at making their products more healthful. Howe...
Federal Crop Revenue Insurance
It was the excellent revenue insurance program that was most responsible for pushing cash land rental rates and actual land values so high and so quickly d...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
The Return of Monetary Velocity
Commodity prices are down, the stock market is volatile, and global economic news is worrisome. Nonetheless, it looks like the U.S. economy is about to gro...
RFS and GMO; TTIP Life Support
U.S. and EU trade negotiators meet this week in Brussels, but actual progress on the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) may be going bac...
China In-Country Analysis
Given the current state of China’s economy and its slowdown, the food inflation spike in January to the highest level since May 2014 plus the notable incre...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
It has become difficult to find offers for Russian 12.5 protein wheat below $180 FOB, while German wheat with similar quality is offered at $175 FOB. Meanw...
Market Commentary
Soybean futures responded to the sharp gains in crude and financial markets, trading 8-9 higher at mid-morning before weakening towards noon. Meanwhile, co...
Market Commentary
Grain and oilseed futures were uneventful today with very narrow trading ranges. Volume was strong in corn, while it was just average in wheat and soybeans...
2016-2017 Crude Oil Forecast
The real gross domestic product (GDP) forecast for the world as weighted by oil consumption, which increased by an estimated 2.4 percent in 2015, indicates...
More Things to Keep You Up at Night
Lentils are now trading at record high prices with peas expected to follow. These high old crop prices and relatively strong new crop prices will have an i...
Closing Futures Prices
Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
The government of India (GOI) released the 2nd Agricultural Production Estimates for the 2015/16 crop on 15 February 2016, which includes the rabi season (...
Oilseed Highlights
French company Avril has agreed to invest in a partnership with Dow AgroSciences to develop a high-protein winter rapeseed for planting in France. The rape...
USDA Releases Long-Term Outlook
In preparation for its Outlook Conference next week, USDA released its 2016-25 baseline outlook today, which indicates growth in a number of areas. USDA Re...