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More On the Outlook Forum Numbers

The acreage numbers used weren’t surprising. The talk over most of the winter has been that U.S. farmers want to plant more corn. There might be some exter...

Market Commentary

Overnight trading was quiet with grains and soybeans holding small gains. The release of USDA’s acreage projections for 2016/17 gave markets something new...

Renewed Hormone Retaliation; Farm Bill Subsidies

USDA reports that the Agriculture Risk Coverage and Price Loss Coverage programs in the 2014 Farm Bill cost $500 million dollars more than the direct payme...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Feeder Outlook; Red Meat Production; White Angus

Despite less expensive feed last year, high cattle prices until the end of the year kept feedlot margins mostly in the red. With an expanded cattle supply...

U.S. Agriculture Outlook

USDA's Outlook Forum got underway this morning where its planted acreage and farmgate price projections were released. Unlike the initial and final estimat...

Oilseed Highlights

USDA released its annual long-range projections for major U.S. crops earlier this week. While it does forecast a small boost in soybean yields, some life s...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Argentine corn premiums are coming down slowly from the high 50s to 48-50 CK for April and May shipment. It seems there are various buyers awaiting 40-45 C...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Ukraine's domestic milling wheat, feed wheat and feed barley prices all increased  during 15-19 February as a result of the weakening national currenc...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Market Commentary

Ongoing weakness in crude oil and financial markets put more downward pressure on grain and soy futures prices overnight. Then the mid-session rally of the...

Brexit Symbolism; GMO Hindsight

The UK’s Agriculture Ministry is apparently split over Brexit. Meanwhile, British farmers are no doubt frustrated with rules from Brussels such as the requ...

Tiptoeing into Climatology

One of the most studied patterns used by climatologists is the El Nino-Southern Oscillation, commonly referred to as ENSO. However, there are other factors...

Market Commentary

It was Turnaround Tuesday with a vengeance. Prices were mostly lower but also largely lacking buyers or sellers in slow overnight trade. Corn posted an alm...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Argentina Update

Mauricio Marci was elected president of Argentina on 22 November 2015 based on a reform agenda he promised as a market-oriented conservative. Since he took...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

The latest FAO report on Iran’s grain crops shows small increases for all in 2015  with both wheat and barley production up about 7 percent. Overall 2...

Oilseed Highlights

Brazilian farmers are increasingly concerned that some states are beginning to impose ICMS taxes (value-added taxes on sales and services) on commodities m...

Food Control; Export Taxes; Campaign Topics

Under pressure from European political leaders, the Continent’s food manufacturers have conceded to an effort at making their products more healthful. Howe...

Market Commentary

Soybean futures responded to the sharp gains in crude and financial markets, trading 8-9 higher at mid-morning before weakening towards noon. Meanwhile, co...

China In-Country Analysis

Given the current state of China’s economy and its slowdown, the food inflation spike in January to the highest level since May 2014 plus the notable incre...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

It has become difficult to find offers for Russian 12.5 protein wheat below $180 FOB, while German wheat with similar quality is offered at $175 FOB. Meanw...

RFS and GMO; TTIP Life Support

U.S. and EU trade negotiators meet this week in Brussels, but actual progress on the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) may be going bac...

Federal Crop Revenue Insurance

It was the excellent revenue insurance program that was most responsible for pushing cash land rental rates and actual land values so high and so quickly d...

The Return of Monetary Velocity

Commodity prices are down, the stock market is volatile, and global economic news is worrisome. Nonetheless, it looks like the U.S. economy is about to gro...

More Things to Keep You Up at Night

Lentils are now trading at record high prices with peas expected to follow. These high old crop prices and relatively strong new crop prices will have an i...

Market Commentary

Grain and oilseed futures were uneventful today with very narrow trading ranges. Volume was strong in corn, while it was just average in wheat and soybeans...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

The government of India (GOI) released the 2nd Agricultural Production Estimates for the 2015/16 crop on 15 February 2016, which includes the rabi season (...

2016-2017 Crude Oil Forecast

The real gross domestic product (GDP) forecast for the world as weighted by oil consumption, which increased by an estimated 2.4 percent in 2015, indicates...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

USDA Releases Long-Term Outlook

In preparation for its Outlook Conference next week, USDA released its 2016-25 baseline outlook today, which indicates growth in a number of areas. USDA Re...

What is Missing?

It is nearly eight years since the financial crisis that led to the Great Recession, and many central banks have used aggressive monetary policies to stimu...

Argentina over Cuba; Smarter, Fatter

President Obama is receiving more press coverage (and more political ridicule) over his upcoming trip to Cuba, but his second leg in the voyage to Argentin...

Market Commentary

Today’s price action shows that without the recent bout of short covering, grain and soy markets are starved for direction. March options expire tomorrow (...

Oilseed Highlights

French company Avril has agreed to invest in a partnership with Dow AgroSciences to develop a high-protein winter rapeseed for planting in France. The rape...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Costly Misleading Activists; Healthy Food; Preemption

USDA is increasing the amount of healthy foods, including perishable fruits and vegetables, that stores must stock in order to become an approved retailer...

Market Commentary

Renewed short covering helped grain and soy markets to recover overnight losses and move modestly higher, a pretty apt description of the price action thro...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Wheat and barley prices at the Russian market moved in different directions during the week in review, but they mainly dropped as rye and corn prices grew...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

With the Brazilian lineup growing and Chinese margins improving, soybean demand is expected to return to Argentina. The last trades were performed at 11 SN...

Market Commentary

Grain and soy futures trade was rather dull with low volume overnight and again during the day session. Prices traded on both sides of Monday’s closes in n...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

A recent study released in Europe indicated Africa’s failure to adopt GM crops cost its agriculture sector $2.5 billion from 2008 to 2013. It further noted...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

EPA in Court Over the RFS – Seven Times

The latest two lawsuits facing U.S. EPA are from Valero, the nation’s largest refiner and third-largest ethanol producer. The first petitions that EPA move...

Potpourri of Odds and Ends

Despite the usual lack of important fresh inputs for markets to digest, there is a seasonal trend for grain and soy futures prices to move slowly and modes...

TTIP; Regionalization; India; Cuba

The EU achieved a significant victory in the WTO where a dispute settlement panel ruled that Russia’s import ban on European pigs and pig meat was “disprop...

Oilseed Highlights

The Philippine government is scrambling to publish new regulations governing the importation, consumption and production of GM crops by 23 February. This i...

Crop Program Spending

Although the payment estimates from the president’s budget and the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) for FY 2016 are relatively close and within standard e...

North American Wheat Outlook Changing

Projected tight wheat stocks in Canada and more ample supplies in the U.S. are likely to impact planting decisions with implications for the wheat outlook...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Farm Bill Trouble; Fat Bastard

One plank in the Republican candidacy of Donald Trump for the American presidency is frustration with so-called political correctness. He would be blowing...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

The state governments in India have taken effective steps over the past few months to control the supplies and costs of pulses in the face of a potentially...

Market Commentary

It was another day of very narrow trading ranges for corn, wheat and the soy complex with volume more normal or average. Heading into today, managed money...

Too Much Pursuing Too Little

Too much supply pursuing too little demand has been the predominant common thread tying up grain and soy markets for more than a year. The markets’ job is...

Market Commentary

Despite another sinking spell by world stock markets, overnight trading in grain and soy futures was low in terms of volume and very quiet in terms of pric...

Oilseed Highlights

While Russian Agriculture Minister Alexander Tkachev denied that his country's newly announced ban on U.S. corn and soybean imports was in any way politica...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

CME Actions on Cattle Market; NCBA Response

The CME yesterday announced specific actions that it will take regarding the live cattle futures market, which followed complaints from two producer groups...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Grain prices at both the Russian and Ukrainian markets continued to rise in the local currencies due to their devaluations. Meanwhile, Russia plans to impl...

Moscow Enablers; How Sweet it Isn’t

The media reports the gloating of some activists as more countries consider imposing taxes on sugary drinks as a purported health initiative. However, the...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Argentina's corn market is quiet. Origination becomes a few dollars more expensive every day, and replacement basis is above FOB offers. Because of this, c...

Market Commentary

Soybean, soymeal and soyoil futures were mostly all sharply steady today. There was small selling pressure into the close, but that only dropped prices a p...

USDA Report Maintains the Bearish Trend

There was nothing bullish in USDA’s numbers today. However, USDA did tinker with corn more than anticipated in mid-winter and revised the world wheat endin...

Market Commentary

The day started with another round of gloom and doom as well as a risk-off mentality. Grain and oilseed futures markets were little changed overnight and t...

President’s Budget Proposes Crop Insurance Cuts

Crop insurance baseline spending cuts are to occur over several years and come from a 10 percent reduction in all policies containing a “harvest price opti...

TTIP Gone; Ag Pain; Energy Bill Threats

A bipartisan bill entitled the “Energy Policy Modernization Act” is stranded as U.S. Senate negotiators hold proxy fights over things like aid to Flint, Mi...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

The latest USDA FAS GAIN report for Turkey shows 2015/16 production of wheat, barley and corn will be higher. Although imports of these three grains are ex...

Oilseed Highlights

India’s soybean processors have greatly reduced their crush volume due to certain factors and had asked the government to take specific action to boost imp...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

FY 2017 Budget Preview

Typically, the submission of the president’s budget sparks a number of congressional hearings and starts the process of Congress formulating its own FY 201...

Ethanol’s Role; Big Trouble; Meatless Philosophy

China has record stocks of unpalatable rice, rancid vegetable oil, tainted wheat and moldy corn, and Beijing is trying to square how to make the surpluses...

February USDA Reports

The trade will likely focus on crop production estimates for Brazil and Argentina in tomorrow’s USDA reports. Even though no one expects significant change...

Market Commentary

The grain and oilseed markets were mostly steady overnight, but that changed when U.S. financial markets opened with big losses. Those losses accelerated q...

Ag Review: Big Data

From Cold War to Farms Big data got a slow start in agriculture and many fear some of the outcomes it offers, but opportunity is certainly one of them. Lin...

China In-Country Analysis

Newly released data indicates U.S. agricultural exports to China declined in December 2015 for some products, but there were notable increases for others...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Market Commentary

Wheat was steady overnight but turned lower at today’s opening. The selling pushed the March Chicago contract below $4.70, and that triggered more technica...

TPP; China Acquisitions; Countercyclical; VW

The TPP agreement was signed this week in New Zealand, and some ministers proclaimed that they would not wait for the Americans before pushing it through t...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

The collapse of India's agriculture sector is apparent throughout the country and  results from several factors. Due to the needs of a growing populat...

Cotton: Farm Programs No, Commodity Certificates Yes

While USDA has determined that it does not have the authority to designate cottonseed as a minor oilseed under the 2014 Farm Bill, it did announce the elig...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

More Things to Keep You Up at Night

Ever wonder how dirt cheap energy could be so bearish today when that used to be a bullish economic factor, or how some people know who’s buying and sellin...

Selling Commodity Markets

It is not easy to change long-entrenched, negative public perceptions about futures markets and speculators, much less explain why they are important in ev...

Japan-Australia Trade Agreement Threatens U.S. Beef in Japan

Unlike the U.S., Australia inked a direct bilateral deal with Japan in 2014, the Japan-Australia Economic Partnership Agreement (JAEPA), which took effect...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Market Commentary

The weaker USD helped support grain and soy futures prices overnight amid decent trading volume. However, its influence waned during day session futures tr...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Oilseed Highlights

After notifying Congress yesterday that he lacks the legal authority to provide subsidies to cottonseed under the PLC and ARC programs, USDA  Secretar...

GM Doors Open; Taxing Burgers and Oil

China National Chemical’s (ChemChina’s) purchase of Syngenta will not only lead to improved crop yields in China, but it should also create a path for comp...

Market Commentary

Futures price action during the day session more or less continued the overnight pattern with wheat closing a few pennies higher, corn down less than 2 cen...

Complex Food System Demands

Food system managers express frustration over the seemingly simplistic and yet complicated demands coming from consumers. In many ways, their demands are o...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

While some grain market experts are expecting a 35 percent boost in Ukrainian wheat exports in MY 2015/16 compared with the past two years, there are also...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Corn lineups are astonishing everyone in Argentina. More than 1.5 MMT were loaded in January, and close to 2 MMT are slated for February. March/April/May l...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Zambia reports that it has received many maize export requests from neighboring countries that it is unable to meet. Zimbabwe is said to have asked for 500...

Imagined Demand; Farm Bill Trouble; Wrong in Iowa

The ink is barely dry on the 2014 Farm Bill and its implementation is incomplete. However, lobbyists in Washington are already advising that it is time to...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Market Commentary

Grain and oilseeds markets firmed up at today’s opening. The most positive market action today was across the soy complex with corn trying to follow the ra...

Oilseed Highlights

According to an Indonesian government official, the French Senate passed biodiversity legislation on 21 January that would impose a very high progressive t...

Cruz Wins Iowa Republican Caucus Despite Opposing RFS

Cruz stated that the RFS itself, specifically the EPA-issued Required Volume Obligations (RVOs), limited the use of corn ethanol compared with the statutor...

Market Commentary

Overnight selling accelerated at today’s opening, notably in wheat. Corn and soy markets did recover most of their losses this morning, but those minor gai...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

The Black Sea market remained about unchanged last week. Demand is difficult to find, and there are several other competitive origins. Meanwhile, Ukrainian...

TPP; TTIP; Scofflaws

The EU Commission has determined that there is no need for continent-wide legislation to deal with perceived unfair trading power by wholesalers/grocers ov...

China In-Country Analysis

China's soymeal inventories continued the pattern established after the first week of 2016 and dropped by 80,600 MT (-5.6 percent)  last week to 1.35...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

The El Nino Winter Continues

Weather was in the market news last week as it always is, but there was also another round of discussion regarding El Nino/La Nina and the weather patterns...

CME Addresses Live Cattle Futures Contract Concerns

In his speech at the NCBA's Cattle Marketing and International Trade Committee on Friday, CME President Terrence Duffy laid out a number of reforms to be i...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

There is immense pressure on GOI to allow the trade of GM crops in India as such trade will continue to rise with full implementation of the Trans-Pacific...

Weak Science; Chobani Chopped

Writing in the Wall Street Journal, Steve Nissen and Nina Teicholz show that effectively attacking the U.S. government’s dietary guidelines is like shootin...

Market Commentary

Wheat tried to mount a small rally today in sympathy with higher corn and soybean markets, but it never found enough buying to spark much of a move. There...

U.S. Soybean Outlook

Soybeans are much cheaper to grow than corn, and input costs per acre will be a factor in many farmers’ planting decisions this spring when weather can als...

U.S. Fed Sounds Soft as Bank of Japan Goes Negative

The Fed added some language to its statement following yesterday’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting that was not included in December’s, which...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Growing Concern over Live Cattle Futures

The discussion is focused on whether there are structural problems in the cattle futures market. At the core is the general issue of high frequency trading...

Oilseed Highlights

The U.S. biodiesel industry has renewed its efforts to convince Congress to change the recipients of the current $1/gallon biodiesel tax credit from blende...

A Few Trends to Watch

Market analysts try to identify trends and frequently explain a market’s short-term price action as part or confirmation of one. They also occasionally vie...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Market Commentary

Before USDA’s morning announcement of canceled soybean sales, grain and soy prices were slightly lower during the overnight session with trading volume no...

TPP Trouble; Free Trade Decline

The resignation of top Japanese Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) negotiator Akira Amari due to an aide’s bribery charges (he took money too but declared it)...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian grain prices continued on an upward trend in RUB expression on the domestic market. They kept dropping in USD expression, however, and demand incre...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

TPP; Beef; Ethanol; Duo

U.S. cattle producers, upset that prices for their animals have slid precipitously from previous highs, will be happy to learn that Europe is having better...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

In Argentina, there is a rapid heat up in soybean basis. 20 days ago, cargoes traded at a negative level of 9 SN below CBOT. This week trades are being mad...

Market Commentary

U.S. stocks were slightly lower early in the day, but they recovered to show small gains as the Fed meeting finished. Neither anticipation of the Fed’s lat...

Backwards U.S. Farm Policy

 One of the purported goals of the White House-sponsored “Rural Council” awarding assistance to “Local Foods, Local Places” (LFLP) partner communities...

China and the Soybean Market

China’s economic slowdown may have a direct negative impact on the volume of copper or crude oil it imports, but does this have a similar effect on its imp...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Oilseed Highlights

Russia’s Federal Service for Veterinary and Phytosanitary Surveillance (Rosselkhoznador) today indicated it may soon prohibit U.S. soybean imports because...

Natural Gas Consumption and Price Up

 EIA reported this week that marketed natural gas in 2015 was priced 6 percent higher on average than 2014 levels, while it also has projected that co...

Market Commentary

Grain and soy futures trade was rather dull and low volume in nature overnight as well as again during the day session. Prices traded on both sides of Mond...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

More details have been released regarding the Egyptian government’s program to become self-sufficient in wheat. The plan is to reclaim 1.5 million feddan (...

Potential U.S. Corn Balance Sheet

There are already a number of private analysts issuing guesses on what farmers will plant in 2016. Most are looking for more corn and soybean acres as well...

Pig in a Poke; UnGRAS Selective Breeding

When the U.S. Congress gave extra incentives for the production of a fuel (cellulosic ethanol) that did not exist, too many naive policymakers thought it w...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Weather Politics

While the House of Representatives will not return to session now until 1 February, the Senate has enough members in DC to convene tomorrow morning. That b...

China In-Country Analysis

China's average domestic corn price dropped for the second consecutive week, hitting its lowest level since 19 November. As of last Friday, it stood at RMB...

Market Commentary

Corn managed to eke out miniscule gains when the soy and wheat markets moved to new daily highs in the last hour of trading, but it couldn’t hold even thos...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

Egypt’s GASC bought 235,000 MT of Romanian, French and Russian wheat last week at an average price of $189.17/MT, approximately $1.50 cheaper than what the...

SmartLabel; Ruse 65; Iowa Canary

A small group of U.S. senators has expressed concern that the food industry’s SmartLabel initiative is inaccessible to the poor. However, there are at leas...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Market Commentary

Commodity markets started strong this morning, pushed up against technical resistance and broke down when that resistance couldn’t be penetrated. Weekly U...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

India is importing corn for the first time in 16 years, limited for use by only actual end users. Non-GM is specified and is being sourced from Ukraine. Ho...

Federal Budget Outlook

This week CBO released a preview of its annual Budget and Economic Outlook for the 2016-2026 period. If the 2016 deficit projection is accurate, this will...

More Things to Keep You Up at Night

The bearish psychology that has blanketed agricultural markets for many months has masked a significant developing story. That story is the severe drought...

Market Commentary

Grain and soy markets were active overnight with prices edging higher in line with outside markets. Trading quieted some during the day session with soybea...

Prices and Production Adjustments

Today production in South America or the Black Sea region and demand from China, North Africa or Southeast Asia are as important and influential to markets...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

USDA Ending Grass-Fed/Natural Beef PVP

USDA’s Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS) has withdrawn two voluntary marketing claim certifications for beef under the Process Verified Program (PVP) as...

Cooking the Books; Sweet Mess; Polling

U.S. Senator Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) knows he isn’t going to like the outcome of the U.S. International Trade Commission’s (ITC’s) review of the Trans-Pacif...

Oilseed Highlights

Argentina's farmers have been seeking the recently enacted changes in the country's export policies to boost their incomes as well as improve their crop ro...

Papering Over; Tardy; Local Poisoning; Hoarders

The Obama administration is suggesting that complaints from industry over the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) can be resolved through implementation plans...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

The Ukrainian Ministry of Economic Development and Trade reports that domestic companies have now received licenses to export 400,000 MT of corn to the EU,...

Market Commentary

Grain and soy futures markets were buoyed yesterday by the macro influences from the financial sector, and they were pulled back today by those same influe...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

There was a great deal of movement this week in the Argentine soybean market with five to seven trades completed at levels of -2 FOB for 15 April and 58 SN...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Market Commentary

Grain and soy markets as well as other commodities were caught up in surging world equity markets, which were heaving a macro sigh of relief that China’s g...

Protectionism; Legality; Commodity Cycle

South Korea has once again completely banned all imports of U.S. broiler meat due to a geographically limited outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza...

Oilseed Highlights

Soyoil has clearly gained the most demand in China during this decade. Its consumption is forecast to be one-third greater in 2015/16 than in 2010/11 despi...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Low levels of precipitation are affecting South Africa's intended maize plantings for 2016 as well as those of Zambia. With farmers in both countries expec...

An Updated View of Corn Supply/Demand

While USDA's lowering of the final 2015/16 U.S. corn production estimate in the January WASDE was a mild surprise, its forecast for ending stocks was adjus...

India Revamps and Expands Crop Insurance

This new model will more than double the government’s fiscal cost for premium subsidies, but it is also expected to more than double the amount of crop cov...

Ethanol Issues and 2016 Outlook

While the controversy over the 2014, 2015, and 2016 RFS and RVOs continues, the EIA and USDA released their monthly forecasts for this year's ethanol deman...

More Things to Keep You Up at Night

There were two interesting presentations at farm meetings this week. The first was a weather recap by the climatologist from the University of North Dakota...

Market Commentary

Corn, wheat and soybean futures markets had another mixed session. Everything was lower early, but corn and wheat rallied to trade 3-4 higher by midmorning...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

GOI has issued a new seed price control order, effective March 2016, which aims to fix the sale price of cotton seed (with GM technology) as well as contro...

Transatlantic Policies; Abetting Liars

Political analysts credit the rise of unconventional candidates like Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders to public frustration with the duplicity of convention...

Trends and Fundamentals

The small declines in estimated 2015 U.S. corn and soybean production in this week’s WASDE along with the smaller winter wheat plantings for 2016/17 will n...

Oilseed Highlights

There have been conflicting reports regarding whether Brazil’s soybean sector has asked the government there to file a WTO complaint against U.S. soybean s...

Market Commentary

It has taken a few days, but the effect of Tuesday’s USDA reports, which were seen as surprisingly bullish, seems to have largely worn off. Meanwhile, USDA...

TPP Handwriting; Shame on Chobani

U.S. agriculture is a major beneficiary of the TPP, but the sector is only really important in a minority of congressional districts. The rest of the busin...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

R-CALF USA Calls for Antitrust Investigation into Cattle Markets

R-CALF USA sent a letter to the Senate Judiciary Committee on 5 January that requested an investigation into “potential antitrust and anticompetitive condu...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

According to Rosselkhoznadzor data, Russia exported 23.6 MMT of grain as of 12 January and since the beginning of MY 2015/16. 35.57 MMT were exported in 20...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Old crop corn continues to be traded in the Argentine market. At the FOB market, exporters are still offering their purchases from the FAS (before the elim...

Policy Machinations; Unnatural Edge

Just as Russia reaches the point of becoming the world’s largest wheat exporter, the government is proposing a move that could undermine that positioning...

Market Commentary

Overnight trade in grain and soy futures found both sides of yesterday’s closes, but prices did not stray far in either direction. Trading seemed subdued c...

Oilseed Highlights

While the reports were slightly positive for U.S. soybeans, that does not offset the overall negative outlook for the sector in the year ahead due to sever...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

State of the Union Preview: Trade and the 2016 Campaign

With the 2016 election looming, tonight's State of the Union address is expected to have a sustained emphasis on the president's accomplishments. One Obama...

The USDA Reports

USDA released its reports  today, which cover final production estimates for fall-harvested U.S. crops, 1 December quarterly stocks, winter wheat plan...

Market Commentary

When USDA lowered its production estimates for 2015 corn and soybeans today, it caught managed money funds leaning the wrong way. Wheat markets were domina...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Israel and Turkey are reported by Ukraine to be in discussions regarding FTAs that would cover its grains, oilseeds and agricultural equipment along with f...

For the Dogs; Local Canard

After Australian Green Party leader Richard Di Natale declared that GMOs were not unsafe for humans, the Australian National Farmers’ Federation asked that...

Tomorrow’s USDA’s Numbers

Even though the average trade estimate for corn production shows very little change from the November USDA report, there are a number of analysts who belie...

China In-Country Analysis

The projected drop in soybean imports during January and February should give the major crushers some added breathing room as they work through the massive...

Market Commentary

Corn, wheat and soybean futures were steady overnight, although they turned decidedly lower once today’s session opened. Wheat and corn were down the harde...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Gamble by Campbell; Dangerous Maize; ISDS

The UK’s organic food promotion entity, the Soil Association, has gone beyond its warnings against chemicals and GMOs and now castigates one of the most pr...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

GOI is permitting PEC Limited, a State Trading Enterprise (STE),  to import 500,000 MT of corn for poultry feed and starch manufacturers under the tar...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Market Commentary

The markets were slightly higher overnight, and those gains turned into a mini short covering rally this morning. Outside markets were also mostly higher t...

Outlook for Brazilian Real

While much attention has been focused on the value of the U.S. dollar since the U.S. Federal Reserve Board modified monetary policy and started to raise in...

Crop Budget

The crop budget worksheets are of course only estimates, and virtually every producer will have a different set of numbers. Yields are always the key facto...

Dietary Guidelines Released

Today the U.S. Departments of Agriculture and Health and Human Services jointly released the 2015-2020 Dietary Guidelines for Americans. At the time of the...

USDA’s Monthly WASDE

All WASDEs are important, but some are considered more so than others. Each January issue will contain USDA/NASS’s final production estimates for fall harv...

Oilseed Highlights

Lower export sales were anticipated last week because of the New Year holiday. However, today’s USDA export sales report indicated net soybean export sales...

TPP Challenges; No Pudding, Some Meat

A larger problem for the TPP is that even the pact’s supporters in the U.S. (the business community) have mostly endorsed it with the caveat that it needs...

Market Commentary

After early weakness, most corn futures contracts closed unchanged or near thereto. Meanwhile, in the face of all the macro turmoil, soy complex futures pe...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

According to sunflower oil traders, decreasing export prices may lead Ukrainian producers to consider a significant response. Those prices had dropped to $...

Market Commentary

Grain and soy futures prices were lower as the overnight session ended and again as the day session opened. However, when March corn failed to break below...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

While Argentine farmers continue to claim that they are not receiving the maximum prices exporters can pay for the goods, largely because of the large stoc...

Land Grab; China Biotech; Biofuel Cruising

Some in the biofuel community are lamenting that U.S. EPA slightly reduced the blend requirements for their prized fuel, but the U.S. Navy has announced pl...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Oilseed Highlights

As a result of recent policy changes by the Argentine government, farmers are now expected to double wheat plantings in the next growing season and corn pl...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

It is reported that fewer than half of the maize plantings in South Africa have been completed due to the severe drought. With yellow maize prices up about...

Market Commentary

Soybean futures contracts closed up about 1 cent except for January, which gained 3.25 cents and is now at a 10.5 cent premium to March. The inverse has be...

Bundy Beef Subsidy; Transatlantic Shipping

An armed gang masquerading as honest hard-working cattle ranchers retains control of a federal wildlife refuge in Oregon. One accomplishment of this privat...

Too Many Bears?

There is no denying that grain and soy markets have been, and continue to be, driven by a barrage of bearish supply/demand fundamentals. However, when mark...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Input Costs – Natural Gas

While grains were 19 percent lower on the S&P Goldman Sachs Commodity Index (GSCI), energy was down 41 percent. However, there may be a silver lining t...

The Reality of Low Prices

As they begin planning for 2016, many producers are now thinking the big bull market might have been the worst thing to happen to production agriculture.20...

China In-Country Analysis

Early last week at the 2015 Provincial Economic Working Conference, provincial authorities announced resolutions to continue subsidizing local corn process...

NME China; Processed Labor; Oil Market

The U.S. is asking the EU to join in opposing China’s elevation next year to “Market Economy Status,” which may make antidumping cases more difficult to up...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

WOTUS and GM Labeling Outlook for 2016

While 2015 ended with passage of a major budget and appropriations bill, the WOTUS rule and legislation regarding the mandatory labeling of GM  foods...

Market Commentary

Rains across the dry areas in central and northeastern Brazil did materialize over the weekend with more in the forecasts. This precipitation coupled with...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

While Argentine feed wheat is trading at $155 FOB, which makes it the world’s cheapest feed wheat/grain, most EU importers are not willing to purchase it b...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Organic Checkoff; TPP; Bear Market Bailout

The new year will likely bring the publication of a proposed rule by USDA instituting a checkoff program for organic crop producers. The proposal is contro...

Market Commentary

Markets on this last trading day of 2015 acted very much as they have for quite a while. Noncommercial traders are carrying large short positions in wheat...

A Cautious Look at 2016

Big crops along with growing grain and soybean stocks will continue to be the most important underlying fundamental factor for futures markets and cash mar...

New Era for Egg and Layer Industry Has Begun

More than a half-dozen companies have announced just this month their plans for procuring only cage-free eggs in the future. Overall, more than two dozen h...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Agriculture Minister Aleksandr Tkachov indicated that the 104.3 MMT of grain harvested (in clean weight) covers the total 69.9 MMT required for dom...

Market Commentary

Soybeans futures closed mostly about 4-5 cents higher in surprisingly active trade. Long grain/short soybean spreads were being unwound, which contributed...

Year-End for the Food Pundits

While foodies are recounting their victories from 2015, including compelling an increasing number of major food vendors to pledge their future allegiance t...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

While it has become common practice for exporters to fill all of their storage capacity with corn during December and January in preparation for March ship...

Unsweet Impacts; Not So Simple Future

Some studies suggest that Hershey's decision to no longer use sugar produced from sugar beets may end up causing more harm to the environment as a result...

Dark Days for Commodity Funds

There are innumerable variations among commodity funds and how they are managed/ traded, but they share one very consistent characteristic.Trading by pools...

Market Commentary

Corn prices were helped out of the red by a strong rally in wheat and the ability of soybeans to recover from a mid-session sinking spell. Besides being a...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Egypt’s GASC has made a few important changes to its wheat purchase terms that impact the acceptable levels of ergot as the country also implemented tighte...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

China’s Modernizing Feed Industry and Growing Commodity Demand

The Chinese Ministry of Agriculture is projecting growth in meat output during 2016-20 and targeting “above scale” farms for this expansion. This signals a...

Oilseed Highlights

Reports indicate some farmers are already abandoning soybeans in the drought-inflicted Brazilian states and have begun planting the fields to corn in hope...

Market Commentary

Markets of nearly every type were lower in quiet holiday trading. Wheat tried to resist the downside pressure in corn and soybeans and was mostly successfu...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Technology Dampening; Supply Chains

Companies have been arguing that trade negotiators must catch up to the fact that global supply chains have become critically important. Lightening Metapho...

China In-Country Analysis

China proved to be a welcome addition to Washington State’s export portfolio this past fall. With carryover of the 2014 apple crop running into early Novem...

The IoT and Big Data Impact on Agriculture

Economics, as a discipline, has been based on several assumptions over the years, and the evolution of Big Data and the “Internet of Things” (IoT) is rapid...

No More Beet Sugar in Hershey’s Kisses

While Hershey’s has always used both cane sugar and beet sugar, it will shift to using 100 percent of the former because it is non-GM. The issue is that 10...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

The feed wheat market in the Black Sea is under pressure in the absence of buying interest with the low pro Argentine wheat significantly more competitive...

Cattle on Feed: Heifer Retention and Slaughter Weights

Last month's feeder calf placements data points to a changing supply situation for the beef market next quarter. Similarly, feedlots' fed cattle marketings...

Market Commentary

In a market environment like this, the price direction of least resistance is usually lower. Overnight trade seemed almost at a standstill with grain and s...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Oilseed Highlights

Although U.S. exports and unshipped sales of soybeans and soymeal continue to run behind the pace of a year ago, today’s USDA export sales report indicated...

Some Christmas Wishes

While we still have a Christmas wish list, it no longer includes things like ice skates, a Lincoln Log set and a cowboy suit. Is our current wish list a be...

Food Outpaces Commodities; Top Five; Surveys

Major agricultural commodity prices will be mostly flat in 2016, according to USDA, but the agency predicts that food bought for consumption at home will i...

Tribalism; Gadflies; Luddites

People should be judged on the quality of their character and not the color of their skin (ethnic/geographic origin), but apparently it is the opposite whe...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Ukraine's domestic milling wheat prices grew slightly. Thus, traders’ raised their bids to $142-172/MT EXW in order to accumulate necessary stocks before t...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Soybean demand returned to Argentina last week. Six cargoes were traded FOB and CNF at levels of -9 SN FOB and 57 SN CNF, both for May/June shipment. Consi...

Market Commentary

Corn futures contracts closed down three-quarters of a cent in very slow, quiet trade that moved corn prices within a narrow 3 cent range. The U.S. Energy...

GMO Labeling; Trade and Economics

USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack has reportedly invited both the food industry and anti-GMO advocates to a meeting on resolving the labeling issue. Given their i...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Market Commentary

Daily price action has become a technical affair with corn futures prices seemingly headed for a test of support near $3.63. Chicago March wheat has now fa...

Oilseed Highlights

India’s Solvent Extractors Association (SEA) has once again urged the government of India (GOI) to raise the tariff on refined vegoil imports. It wants an...

Where Does the Fed Go Next?

While Congress was busying piecing together a fiscal policy deal on the budget and taxes, the Federal Reserve moved to raise interest rates for the first t...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

The Blumberg Grain Command and Control Center has opened in Egypt and will be used to manage the government’s Shouna Development Project. It is said...

Bona Fide Hedging

One of the thorniest issues involved in setting speculative position limits concerns the exemptions that commercial market users are able to receive for po...

Nairobi’s Mixed Messages

The ministerial declaration emanating from the WTO’s meeting in Nairobi this past weekend is hailed by some as “historic” and by others as a disappointment...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

The EU allocated 1.1 MMT of wheat export licenses last week, bringing the cumulated total to 11.4 MMT versus 13.6 MMT at the same time last year. The weekl...

Cotton Supporters Seek Farm Program Status for Cottonseed

Technically,  it is cotton lint that is no longer eligible for certain crop support programs, and cottonseed could qualify as an oilseed. Thus, the Na...

China In-Country Analysis

China’s domestic soymeal inventories decreased last week to 1.32 MMT, down 150,000 MT or 10.2 percent from the previous week, largely because of two factor...

Market Commentary

Wheat couldn’t find any friends today and was the weakest link in the agricultural markets. Like corn, Chicago wheat futures are mired in a technical tradi...

Weather Starting to Play Bigger Role

The super strong El Nino continues to be in the news on almost a daily basis. It is also starting to receive some press in agricultural markets as its impa...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Market Commentary

Yesterday’s trade was a key technical reversal in the soybean market, and that brought more follow-through buying today. Wheat chased the soybean rally, wh...

Meaningless and Meaningful Words

The major farmers and food makers in America lose when any biotechnology product approved through the regulatory process is disparaged. Meaningless Food W...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

India imported 1.337 MMT of vegetable oil in November 2015 versus 1.189 MMT during the same month a year ago, which has pulled prices down. While this may...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Brazil Weather Starting to Attract Attention

While it is difficult to assess the impact of weather on Brazil's overall crop production at this point in time, it is safe to say that it will be difficul...

WASDE and Long-Term Projections

USDA’s December WASDE report (released last week) indicates a slight reduction in broiler and beef production for 2015 and 2016, while it shows pork produc...

Market Commentary

The soybean market staged a late session rally that caught the market by surprise. Its sudden reversal was strong enough to pull corn along with it and eve...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

The Demand Side Blues

The simple fact is that annual production and thus the annual renewability of grain and oilseed supplies allows for a quick production response to high pri...

Oilseed Highlights

In its decision to ban the development of biotech eggplants, the Supreme Court of the Philippines also struck down a 2002 government regulation that allowe...

Some Winners, Some Losers

As a result of equivalency agreements, Edward Jaenicke of Penn State University found that U.S. organic food exports have increased 58 percent over the pas...

Food with Pathogens

People in the conventional food business are smiling as Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. walks back from its pledge to use “local” ingredients at it...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

As FOB basis continued dropping last week, a cargo of Argentine soybeans was traded by the end of the week at levels of -2 SN for full May shipment. Today...

Omnibus and Tax Extender Deal Reached

Lawmakers reached a deal early this morning on the omnibus spending bill and the tax extender package. There are a number of provisions in both that signif...

Market Commentary

Grain and soy prices traded slightly firmer overnight, but they faded to red early in the day session and stayed that way through the close. Some of the we...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

The Russian Ministry of Agriculture’s first forecast for the 2016 grain harvest estimated it at 104 MMT. However, market experts are not as optimistic with...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Sickest; U.S. Dilemma; Perishable Cost

The World Health Organization (WHO) produced its first ever estimate of food-borne illnesses. While there are worse places in the world, the U.S. is a prim...

Market Commentary

With the stronger U.S. dollar, weaker soybeans and corn plus the absence of any supportive news or inputs, today’s stronger wheat market seems hard to rati...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Oilseed Highlights

Because of low cotton lint prices, the U.S. cotton industry is asking USDA to make cottonseed eligible for the Agricultural Risk Coverage (ARC) and Price L...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

Pakistan reportedly has a large surplus of wheat that will rise considerably after the next harvest. If the government does adjust the export price, which...

Still Awaiting the Omnibus

The omnibus budget bill has still not been released, although it was expected to be this afternoon. Received reports indicate that a large number of the am...

A Few Random Thoughts

It is mid-December, a time when grain, soy and other commodity markets are anticipated to slow down with the Christmas holiday looming in 10 days. However,...

Market Commentary

The markets started the week mixed in the Sunday evening session, but corn, wheat and soybean futures traded higher through most of today. There was none o...

COP 21 Exemptions; Doha and Nairobi; Surveys

The Paris agreement on greenhouse gas reductions is at once a marvel and a façade. It reveals the extraordinary difficulty of getting a Conference of Parti...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

The Black Sea market for milling wheat remained about unchanged last week without any major trades reported. While the price in rubles is attractive to Rus...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Preliminary USDA Baseline Projections

USDA released its preliminary 10-year baseline projections last Friday without much narrative. Like the weekly crop condition reports during the growing se...

China In-Country Analysis

Last week’s domestic corn prices averaged RMB 2,050/MT ($318.50/MT), a slight decline from the previous week. Local traders indicated a similar drop in the...

Current Budget Situation in Historical Context

Not one of the 12 regular appropriations bills for FY 2016 needed to be passed by 1 October 2015 under regular order was finalized. In fact, this has been...

Market Commentary

Markets were choppy overnight with corn and wheat slightly lower as soybean futures traded 3-4  higher on light volume. That pattern changed at this m...

El Nino Weather Notes

El Nino has become a popular topic of conversation these days, although it probably never made the news during the 1997-98 event.Paul Douglas, a nationally...

Renegotiation of TPP; Cotton Fluff

Word is that USDA is considering allowing cotton farmers access to not just the subsidy program the industry demanded as their key support in the 2014 Farm...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Lower corn production in India led to higher prices for end users in early October 2015, forcing starch plants to reduce capacity with poultry operators pl...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Market Commentary

After a listless overnight session, grain and soy futures prices began to work higher as the day session developed. The only things new were the weekly exp...

Congress in Action

Amidst a great deal of cynicism and doubt, the U.S. Congress is on a path toward several accomplishments before departing late next week for the holidays.A...

Growing Abundance

The definition of abundance forms the most significant common thread in USDA’s December WASDE as it projects large amounts of everything in its supply/dema...

Oilseed Highlights

CARIBO, the organization representing Argentina’s biodiesel producers, indicated it is seeking to prevent the U.S. Congress from converting the current bio...

Status of COOL

While the WTO approved $1 billion in retaliatory tariffs over the U.S. country-of-origin labeling (COOL) law, which will be imposed by Canada and Mexico as...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Market Commentary

The December WASDE is market neutral, and the corn and soy markets apparently came to the same conclusion. Wheat futures have been more impressed by today’...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

There were few developments in either the FOB or FAS grain markets early this week in Argentina due to national holidays there. Local premiums did not even...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

322,200 MT of grains were exported from Ukrainian seaports during 30 November-6 December. This included 109,300 MT of wheat and 212,900 MT of corn. The lar...

GHGs; Locals; AMR; Produce

The Center for Science in the Public Interest looked at data from the Centers for Disease Control and concluded that fresh produce is the cause of most foo...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

Jordan’s grain import rules are said to be having a very serious effect on business there as can be seen by the lack of bidders in recent tenders and...

Market Commentary

Today’s market was a low volume affair during which it seemed corn and wheat prices hardly moved. The soy complex is where the action, or what passes for a...

Headline News

Some of the news headlines during the next week or two just might provide some of inputs for agricultural markets that  have been missing during the l...

What’s Going on in Congress?

All Congress had to do was pass the omnibus spending bill before 11 December, the date when the current short-term continuing resolution expires. Each cham...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Ag Review: The 2016 Outlook

Technology, Finance, Geopolitics and Demographics The big four dynamics of technology, finance, geopolitics and demographics will collide to make 2016 very...

Oilseed Highlights

Argentina’s incoming finance minister told the newspaper La Nation that the government wants to unify the nation’s exchange rate beginning 14 December. The...

Broken Dispute Settlement; TPP Disappointments

The years-long effort to achieve a final outcome in the country-of-origin labeling (COOL) case by Canada and Mexico against the U.S. is one more example of...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

WTO Ruling on COOL

The WTO today ruled that Canada and Mexico are authorized to impose more than $1 billion in retaliatory tariffs on products shipped from the United States...

China In-Country Analysis

After weeks of steady increases, China’s nationwide estimated soymeal inventory declined slightly last week to 1.35 MMT from 1.39 MMT the week before as fa...

Market Commentary

Markets started the week mixed in the overnight session. That tone changed significantly when markets opened at 8:30 a.m. today, and it didn’t take long fo...

Ridiculous Equality; UnCOOL Futures

The climate change conference in Paris is generating some of the ridiculous along with the rational, evidenced by a Global Justice Now statement claiming t...

USDA’s December Reports Shouldn’t Hold Any Surprises

While USDA will make some changes to world production numbers, It is interesting to note where the ending supplies of the three major crops are located.USD...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

Bulgarian feed wheat was competitive against Ukrainian last week when the EUR/USD was below 1.06. With that rate close to 1.085 today, however, the Bulgari...

Market Commentary

Wheat, corn and soybean futures all started higher this morning. Funds are holding significant short positions in all three, while yesterday’s rally in the...

Trudeau Issues Marching Orders; COOL Looms

New Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has issued ministerial mandate letters to his cabinet as one of the first issues confronting the new agriculture...

Leverage; Organic Truth; Confusion

The U.S. is refusing to concede any significant reforms to its agricultural export credit and food aid programs as part of the revisions to export measures...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Stats Canada’s Final 2015 Crop Production Estimates

Statistics Canada released its final 2015 crop production estimates today, although these numbers are still subject to revisions for the next two years. Th...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

India's pulses crisis is expected to escalate as the new crop will only arrive at the market in April/May 2016, and the government will need to import addi...

Market Commentary

The corn and soy markets were buoyed by the sharply falling U.S. dollar and fund buying, but much less so than wheat. Soymeal and oil were also slightly fi...

Dumb Labels; Smart WTO; Monetary Spillover

Commodity markets jolted higher today, not because of any tightening of supply and demand but due to the technical reaction to Europe failing to meet finan...

Cloned Beef in China

The FDA has concluded that meat from clones and clone progeny is as safe as that from conventionally-bred animals. Now there is news from China indicating...

A Law of Unintended Consequences

Many of the new regulations stemming from the Dodd-Frank bill apply to derivative markets and their participants. Unintended consequences abound, but there...

Oilseed Highlights

One of the main reasons the ruling power in Venezuela is likely to lose this Sunday's election is the nation’s acute lack of foreign exchange to purchase i...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

While Brazilian beans are offered at +144 SH for February, U.S. beans are traded in the low 130s SF for January and could be around 135-140 SH for February...

Market Commentary

The overnight session saw shrinking volume, lower prices for the grains and a stronger soy complex amid less-than-satisfactory weather forecasts for west/c...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Most grain exporters in Russia  have stopped signing new contracts with Turkey, fearing introduction of a ban because of the current conflict between...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Oceanic Divides; Food Centric

USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack called a spade a spade in Brussels this week when he said that there will be no Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (...

Market Commentary

Soybeans and soymeal held their higher prices together during the day session, but the corn market struggled to maintain green numbers. The wheat market ga...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Potential Cropping Shifts in Argentina

With the elimination of the export taxes and quantitative restrictions on corn, wheat and sunseed, the incentive to farmers will change substantially. Beca...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

Jordan continued to issue, cancel and reissue its wheat and barley tenders due to a lack of participation by international sellers. It is seeing some tende...

Thriving World Derivative Trade

To keep track of developing trends in the world trade of futures and options contracts, which now also include cleared swaps, the Futures Industry Associat...

Currency; TPP Aspirants; GMOs; COP 21

The Coordinated Framework for the Regulation of Biotechnology has not been updated in 23 years, and the Obama administration is collecting public input on...

Paris Greenwashing; Biofuel Odds; Yuan

The City of Lights is glowing green this week, but environmentalists are charging that corporate sponsors of the UN conference on global climate change in...

Market Commentary

Overnight markets were sharply steady to start this week. A rally developed with today’s openings, however, led by the soy complex with corn and wheat foll...

China In-Country Analysis

China's average domestic corn price continued to see gains last week. Looking ahead, prices for corn byproducts should  trend upward as demand for bot...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Argentina and Other Topics

There was an announcement over the weekend regarding Argentina's agricultural product export taxes as well as new information out of India about the status...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

The Black Sea milling wheat market is lower due to the strength of the U.S. dollar and slow demand. Russian origin is facing more competition from France,...

Biofuel Volumes Set

Probably the most significant news from today's announcement is that the EPA has recalculated its assessment of carryover Renewable Identification Numbers...

Leftovers

U.S. domestic catfish producers hope that USDA's final rule implementing a more robust inspection program for fish will find the imported variety to be as...

Consumer Price Index Up for Protein

USDA is now predicting beef prices will increase 6.5-7.5 percent in 2015 and another 1.5-2.5 percent in 2016, while poultry and egg prices are also forecas...

Struggling Crops

There are a number of crops from Brazil to India that are being negatively impacted by weather events, which could have implications for planting decisions...

Market Commentary

This week's corn export sales, which were well above expectations for the second week in a row, had no impact on today’s trade. Prices were lower in light...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

The corn arrivals at  India's major production centers have been slow as this kharif season’s crop is expected to be much smaller than last year. Ther...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Corn Belt Analysis

Grain contracts basically transitioned into horizontal trading patterns prior to the release of the November WASDE on expectation of a larger harvest. Such...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Food Safety Illusions

The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) announced a new effort to reduce foodborne illnesses by collecting a larger number of food samples in an effort...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

With Argentina's presidential election now concluded, farmers may increase their corn planting intentions even further. Argentine corn seems to be the chea...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

According to Rusagrotrans, 1.52 MMT of grain will be shipped from Russian seaports during November, a drop from the 1.7 MMT previously forecast and less th...

Market Commentary

Before the day session opened this morning, USDA announced a sale of 190,000 MT of soybeans to unknown for 2015/16. Although it is not necessarily due to c...

Slow Boat to China; Consumers Flunk

China made several broad commitments to the U.S. at the recent bilateral meeting of the Joint Commission on Commerce and Trade. However, USDA Secretary Vil...

U.S. Soybean Supply/Demand Update

USDA raised its national average soybean yield for 2015/16 to 48.3 bushels/acre and estimated U.S. soybean production to 3.981 billion bushels, both new re...

Oilseed Highlights

There have been several rumors floating around in Argentina that President-elect Mauricio Macri would suspend the collection of export taxes on soybeans fo...

Paris Climate Conference and Agriculture

The end goal of the conference is to forge a new international agreement on climate change that would keep global warming below 2 degrees centigrade by the...

Market Commentary

Turkey’s downing of a Russian fighter jet has added another element to the complex Syrian-Middle Eastern conflict with possible ramifications for commodity...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

Egypt is the world’s second-largest producer of tilapia, producing 1.3 MMT today with expectations that the total will reach 2 MMT by 2020. This grow...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Updating the Outlook for the RFS and an Interest Rate Hike

With the 30 November deadline looming for the U.S. EPA's decision on required volume obligations and the Fed's upcoming December meeting where an interest...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

With farmers in Bulgaria and Romania selling part of their wheat stocks, Bulgarian 11.5 protein milling wheat is trading at a slight discount to the Ukrain...

Mercantilism; Macri; Doha

The big three (the U.S., EU and Japan) are opposing a continuation of the Doha round on the basis that the negotiations have gone nowhere for 14 years. Mea...

New Direction in Argentina

The weekend election in Argentina yielded the results that most people involved in agriculture wanted, and there seems little doubt that the current export...

Mercantilism; Macri; Doha

The big three (the U.S., EU and Japan) are opposing a continuation of the Doha round on the basis that the negotiations have gone nowhere for 14 years. Mea...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Market Commentary

Markets started steady to lower overnight and were decidedly lower by the time the night session closed. The election of the pro-business/agriculture candi...

China In-Country Analysis

Last week's soymeal inventories in China surged to a 12.8 percent gain over the previous week. After remaining well below 2014 figures for months, they wer...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

The government of India (GOI) has finally taken steps to help cane growers and the sugar industry at large. However, some trade experts argue that the plan...

Argentine Election

Argentina could be a wildcard on the corn export market, provided that crop gets sown, if the leading presidential candidate wins and fulfills his promises...

Market Commentary

Grain and oilseed markets finished the week without a whimper. Trading ranges were relatively small, and volume was light. Meanwhile, U.S. corn export pric...

Radioactive Europeans; China

For years, Europe has considered America’s food to be of poor quality or even dangerous. While its politicians helped characterize it all as radioactive, r...

More Things to Keep You Up at Night

U.S. farmland values quadrupled over the last decade as record-high prices, good crop production and a generous crop insurance program created a big demand...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

First GM Animal Approved for Human Consumption

Just to add a level of intrigue and excitement to the GMO labeling debate, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) today has approved the first GM anim...

Market Commentary

The story in today’s markets was there was some fund short covering as a result of one of the best weekly USDA export sales reports of this marketing year...

The Acreage Game

Analysts with a longer-term view of the markets are starting to put together budget worksheets for 2016 crops. The winter farm meeting season is about to e...

Oilseed Highlights

While today’s USDA export sales report showed exporters had good success selling U.S. soy last week, it also indicates that sales and exports of soymeal to...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Caution to the Wind

Given farmers' current financial concerns, the bet by Farmland Partners, a real estate investment trust that continues to expand its portfolio of farmland...

Market Commentary

Corn futures resisted the downdraft in wheat and soybean futures, trading slightly lower much of the day. However, markets did stage a minor recovery in th...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Argentina's old crop wheat is already sold, and there has been no movement in the past few months. In terms of the new crop, Brazilian millers are saying t...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

COOL Strategy; WOTUS

A WTO arbitration panel is expected to rule on 7 December regarding the amount of retaliation that Canada and Mexico can impose on the U.S. as a result of...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Prices on the Russian grain market changed insignificantly 9-13 November 2015, while average wheat prices were steady. However, prices expressed in USD dec...

Green Complaints; China GMOs; South Africa

Environmentalists complain that the TPP rolls back requirements by some multilateral environmental agreements (MEAs) and want stronger provisions on climat...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

Egypt is reported to be making great effort to induce local wheat farmers to use high-yielding, quality seed stock produced by the government’s Centr...

U.S. Corn Supply/Demand Estimates

Combined with the carry in stocks and modest imports, the total amount of U.S. corn supplies for 2015/16 is nearly as much as last year and the second-larg...

Market Commentary

The corn futures market may not have been a tower of strength today, but the December contract did close up 2 cents and within a half-cent of the day’s hig...

Oilseed Highlights

Argentina may have lost biodiesel exports to African countries, but it clearly has been able to boost those to the U.S. as the volume has substantially inc...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Federal Reserve Minutes Released Tomorrow

Tomorrow the Federal Reserve will release the minutes of its Federal Open Market Committee (FMOC) meeting of 27-28 October. These are expected to be a prol...

China In-Country Analysis

China Customs data indicates soybean imports during October totaled 5.53 MMT, 6.3 percent higher than the previous forecast of 5.2 MMT announced in Septemb...

Market Commentary

The world was anxious about how all markets would respond to the attacks in Paris, but the action was actually relatively calm. Grain and oilseed markets w...

Crop Insurance Budget Battle Continues

Last week, Senators Jeff Flake (R-Arizona) and Jean Shaheen (D-New Hampshire) introduced legislation that called for the budget agreement's 8.9 percent cap...

G-20; Nairobi; U.S.-China

The WTO Ministerial next month in Nairobi may be seeing a policy breakthrough, or not. Brazil and the EU have teamed up to try and break the logjam on the...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

EU wheat has to find more export demand urgently, which means that  French, German and Baltic stocks must become more competitive against those of Rus...

A Look at World Supplies

There is no denying that global stocks have been building over the last two marketing years. However, today’s record-large supplies are only half of the st...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

The Indian poultry sector needs to gear up and add value to the chicken it produces if it wants to survive the current crisis of high input costs and low o...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices.Please note: Due to the Veterans Day holiday on Wednesday, 11 November 2015, updated CFTC Commitment of Trade...

Ethanol in Presidential Campaign Beyond Iowa

Both sides of the ethanol debate are hitting the airwaves trying to influence the outcome of the EPA’s decision regarding a proposed reduction in the...

Values; Cotton Bust; Dead Goose

The challenge to Europe and the U.S. in the TTIP negotiations is not how to handle tariffs, but how to manage value-based differences involving roughly two...

Market Commentary

The weekly USDA export sales report (delayed a day because of the holiday Wednesday) showed better than expected soybean sales with wheat and corn sales in...

Farmers Look for Cash

The current market situation begs the question: How will farmers generate cash while they wait in hope for a price rally?Prices are low (depending on your...

WASDE: Red Meat Down, Poultry Up

The USDA’s monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report was released on Tuesday of this week and shows offsetting changes in the r...

Where is the Market Headed Now?

At this point it is hard to see grain and soy markets staging a major rally barring a South American weather problem. Unless adverse weather intervenes in...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices.Please note: due to the Veterans Day Holiday on 11 November, 2015, USDA will release the updated Export Sales...

Market Commentary

It has become hard to find things to comment about regarding grain and soy futures markets these days. There has been no news except for the November WADSE...

China’s G-20; Derivatives; Processed

For centuries, the solution to prevent food spoilage and loss has involved processes such as thermal, chemical, atmospheric, etc. Now consumers are demandi...

Oilseed Highlights

There is no question the Chinese government wants to reduce the country’s huge corn stocks and to cut the costs of its corn subsidy program; If China...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Argentine wheat production has been gradually dropping every year over the past decade due to the government’s intervention in the wheat market. By limitin...

Market Commentary

Grain and soy futures prices fell yesterday after USDA’s bearish production and supply/demand estimates. Several new contract lows were set. General Commen...

Corn Belt Analysis: Anticipating Market Data and Resulting Price Action

The present seems to be the time that end-users are being offered a favorable purchasing opportunity by a larger than expected U.S. crop, fund selling, and...

Modernity; Politics; Policy

Some on the political right in the U.S. have joined their ideological opposites on the left by taking decidedly “anti-American” positions on trade policy...

Market Commentary

Grain and soy futures prices fell yesterday after USDA’s bearish production and supply/demand estimates. Several new contract lows were set. General Commen...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Warm weather and rains in some regions of Ukraine during the first week of November produced favorable effects on winter crop development in a number of re...

GIs/Biologics; Rabidity

Greenpeace's latest report on biotechnology may be welcomed by those already inclined against biotech but it will be scoffed at by those already using it...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

South Africa is expected to have to import about 800,000 MT of maize this crop year to cover a drought-induced shortage. These are the first significant ma...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Market Commentary

Today’s WASDE let some air out of grain and soy markets, at least in the short term, with December Corn trading through the low end of its recent trading r...

National Security and Ag: Land, Water, Allies and Biotech

In a recent House Committee on Agriculture hearing covering National Security and Agriculture, key witness Ambassador John Negroponte touched upon som...

The November 2015 WASDE

We cannot call the November WASDE a major surprise because the direction of most major changes was well anticipated, if not their scope; today’s futures ma...

Oilseed Highlights

It is amazing that in what many believed to be a very challenging crop year the U.S. national average soybean yield was a record high.  USDA Reports I...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

The weather in Bulgaria and Romania is generally favorable for winter wheat development, as well as for harvesting the remaining 10 percent of the corn cro...

Market Commentary

Corn struggled with the weakness in wheat today and amid expectations that USDA might increase corn ending supplies in tomorrow’s reports; corn export insp...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Not Many Surprises Expected in Tomorrow’s USDA Reports

Most analysts don’t expect many surprises in tomorrow’s USDA November reports; in fact, if you just go by the “average” of the trade guesses there is littl...

Blend Wall Battle Over Ethanol

There is currently little incentive – other than the RFS mandate – to blend more ethanol if the price increases or the price of gasoline decreases in the c...

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