FOB Prices and Freight Rates App (Updated 13 November)
Ocean Freight Comments - 8 November 2024By Matt HerringtonDry-Bulk Freight Dry-bulk freight markets were weaker once again and continue the trend that has been present for the past 15 weeks. Rates for Panamax grain from the U.S. to Asia hit new yearly lows this past week and have fallen ab...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional UpdatesMEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGIONPakistan has decided to allow the importation of GMO soybeans from the U.S. – critics say that this decision was made without proper risk assessment and was only done due to pressure from large industrial companies. Forty...
WASDE Wheat - Nov 2024
WASDE Wheat – USDA’s latest November estimate for the 2024/25 season is for an increase in U.S. wheat ending stocks by 3 million bushels to 815 million, up 17 percent from last year. U.S. wheat exports are unchanged at 825 million bushels. The season-average farm price is lowered $0.10 per bush...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional UpdatesMEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGIONTunisia will shortly receive a shipment of 33,000 MT of U.S. corn, the first shipment in quite a while. The U.S. Grains Council office in Tunis says that they expect more U.S. corn imports in the coming weeks.Morocco has...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional UpdatesMEDITERRANEAN, MIDDLE EAST, NORTH AFRICA, and AFRICA – MEA REGIONTurkey’s wheat production is seen dropping by 5.5 percent to 20.8 MMT according to Turksat estimates. It also sees barley production down by 11 percent to 8.2 MMT and corn down by 8 percent to 8.3 MMT. Soybean prod...
The Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN, MIDDLE EAST, NORTH AFRICA, AFRICA – MEA REGIONAfrica spends $75 billion every year importing cereals according to the African Development Bank – 50 MMT being wheat – 27 MMT imported by North Africa, 12 MMT by East Africa and 9 MMT by West Africa. Wheat...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Algeria decided to bar French companies from its wheat import tenders due to France’s support for Morocco’s continued sovereignty over the Western Sahara region. All tender participants have been advis...
Cocoa Market Update: Prices Rise as Stocks Fall
At the end of July 2024, WPI published an article looking at the drivers of the cocoa market’s massive rally in 2023 and 2024 and that offered an outlook for MY 2024/25. This article offers a brief update on market conditions and developments that have occurred in the two months since our...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt has a program that it says will reduce wheat imports and cut subsidies on bread. The plan is to blend wheat flour with local corn and sorghum flour. Savings, it is said, could be in the hundreds of millions...
Kenya’s Crop Choices
In yesterday’s WPI Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional analysis report, it was noted that Kenyan farmers are switching from growing maize to growing sweet potatoes. The latter being easier to grow than drought sensitive maize and netting three crops per year. But whether maize...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Pakistan’s wheat imports in 2024/25 could drop to almost nothing as a result of the very good harvest in 2024 – up by 3.2 MMT. Wheat production was well above the average at a record level of 31,400 MM...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Bangladesh reports that it will be importing 400,000 MT of wheat immediately with the normal buying approval being shortened from 42 days to 15 days. The change is being made in order to maintain food security. Th...
More Food, and Fewer Children
Few philanthropists are as focused on hunger in Sub-Saharan Africa than Bill Gates. The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation has spent billions of dollars on the problem. Activists do not like his promotion of GMO’s as a solution, but they are not as focused as he is on human suffering...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt’s GASC is reported to have arranged a private purchase of 430,000 MT of Russian wheat at a price of $231 CIF. GASC has not confirmed this purchase. Egypt’s wheat imports, on a dollar basis,...
WASDE Wheat
WASDE WHEAT: USDA increased their estimate for 2024/25 global wheat supplies by 1.5 million tons to 1,062.1 million as higher beginning stocks were more than offset by lower production. World wheat trade is raised 1.7 million tons to 216.5 million as higher exports for Australia, Canada,...
Agricultural Trade with Africa
Africa’s population is on a trajectory that could double its size by 2050 to 2.5 billion, or a quarter of the global populace. The West (U.S., EU, Japan) are in a competition with the Axis (China, Russia) for influence over Africa. One way to influence is to actively trade, including in a...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt’s trade deficit in June dropped by 5.1 percent to $2.87 billion – in dollar terms wheat imports were down by 21.5 percent while corn imports saw a reduction of 28.6 percent. Total for all imports...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Saudi Arabia’s Arabian Mills has set the share issue price range under their upcoming IPO. The IPO is expected to raise about $271 million. The total offering will be for 15.4 million shares, which represent...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Regional Updates Iranian wheat farmers are complaining that the government has not yet paid them for wheat delivered earlier in 2024 and that this is impacting planting for the next wheat crop. Iran’s government bought 11.6...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt’s recent massive wheat tender did not generate the 3.8 MMT of buying that GASC had planned. Reports say that the long delivery period – to April 2025 – coupled with the requirement for 270...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Iraq’s wheat production is estimated by the Iraq Wheat Board to be up by 21 percent to 6.3 MMT resulting in the second consecutive year of wheat self-sufficiency for the government. The Board adds that Iraq...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 9 August)
*** Developer Note ***This app is deprecated as of 13 August 2024 and will no longer be updated. Ocean Freight Comments - 9 August 2024By Matt HerringtonDry-bulk markets continue to chop sideways with gains one week yielding losses the next before gains emerge again. This past week was one...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt’s Ministry of Supply has increased its selling price of wheat, both local and imported, by about 20 percent. At the same time, the price of government wheat flour has increased by 35 percent. These pri...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Turkey’s year end wheat stocks are expected to drop by 61 percent due to the wheat import ban. The ban is set to expand in October but wheat imports for the year are seen dropping by 3 MMT – a drop of...
Cocoa: Will the Challenges of 2023 Continue into 2024?
Recently, WPI has received requests from a few clients to provide some analysis on the cocoa market. Clearly, there is a reason for this request as cocoa prices have been exceptionally volatile and futures more than doubled over the nine months from August 2023 through April 2024. I...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Iraq’s government announced record local wheat purchases of 6.3 MMT. Iraq is now self-sufficient in wheat. The government says that this will help it to ensure long-term food security and economic stability...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Pakistan has banned the import of wheat and the export of wheat flour in order to “regulate the wheat market”. The ban on wheat flour exports only covers flour made from imported wheat. Pakistan’...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt is the largest importer of Russian wheat with imports of 8.6 MMT in MY 2023/24 that ended June 30. Egypt’s government purchases of local wheat have reached 3.55 MMT causing the target purchase to...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt reports receiving 3.55 MMT of local wheat from farmers in this year’s harvest. The government’s local wheat buying target of 3.5 MMT has been exceeded. Egypt’s wheat reserves now stand at 6...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Iran’s wheat production is forecast by the FAO to be at 13.5 MMT out of total grain production of 19.8 MMT, including rice. Iran’s total grain imports are seen as reaching 14.9 MMT. Iran’s govern...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Turkey’s announcement that it would stop wheat imports from June to October in order to protect local wheat production has surprised and upset the wheat trade in Turkey and internationally. Turkey’s la...
U.S. Pork Kept Out of Africa
At a recent hearing of the Senate Finance Committee, the National Pork Producers Council (NPPC) highlighted Africa’s call for the renewal of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGAO) while at the same time calling for the removal of South Africa and Nigeria from the agreement because...
El Niño Sparks Corn Demand
Corn production in Sub-Saharan Africa has been volatile for decades but when technology and investment should have been making it less so, it has instead gotten worse. This year’s El Niño has helped make a bad situation worse. USAID’s Famine Early Warning System Networ...
Egypt Needs Wheat
Egypt’s General Authority for Supply Commodities (GASC) purchased 470 KMT of wheat today. It will come from four countries: Romania, France, Ukraine, and Bulgaria. Russia is notably absent. Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi was re-elected with 90 percent of the vote and is now formi...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt’s government has decided to increase the price of subsidized “baladi” bread for the first time in 30 years. The price will increase by 400 percent from $0.001 per piece to $0.004 per piece...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt is reportedly looking at the possibility of importing wheat from Zimbabwe, Mexico, and Sweden as part of its plans to increase the number of sources for its yearly wheat requirements. According to news repor...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Iraq’s Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) hopes to reach an agreement with the government that would guarantee the purchase of 650,000 MT of KRG wheat production. In 2023, Iraq bought 500,000 MT of KRG wheat...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Saudi Arabia’s Modern Mills Company is now trading its shares on the Saudi Exchange. Thirty percent of its shares were offered to public, retail, and institutional investors and the IPO was vastly oversubscr...
WASDE Wheat
USDA’s outlook for 2024/25 U.S. wheat is for larger supplies, increased exports, and higher ending stocks. Supplies are projected to increase six percent from 2023/24. U.S. wheat yield is projected at 48.9 bushels per acre, up 0.3 bushels. 2024/25 ending stocks are eleven percent above la...
Meeting with the Cotton Hopeful
Although many small developing countries produce cotton, about five countries produce most of the fiber. China and India alone account for nearly half the global output of cotton. Four small African countries (Benin, Burkina Faso, Chad, and Mali) formed the Cotton-4 or C-4 consortium many years...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt has received 1,000,000 MT of local wheat since the harvest began on 13 April. The government’s target is to receive 3.5 MMT from the 2024 harvest. Egypt may become a market for South African maize expo...
Egyptian Food Inflation
Bread is a critical basic food in Egypt and Russia has been a prime supplier. But Russian wheat prices have been rising, and now two shiploads of the commodity are delayed departing for Egypt. President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi has a tight grip over the military and the government, but war on the b...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt reports it has received 900,000 MT of local wheat since the harvest began on 13 April. The government’s target is to receive 3.5 MMT from the 2024 harvest. Egypt’s Suez Canal Economic Zone has re...
Squeeze on White Corn
South Africa’s Crop Estimates Committee warns that instead of a previously expected 13.8 percent increase in maize production in 2024/25, output could fall to a five year low on account of El Nino. The shortfall is particularly acute for white corn, with the price rising 30 percent thus f...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Iran, Bangladesh, and the UAE were major destinations for Indian soymeal exports in March 2024, representing 78 percent of exports – Bangladesh 33,000 MT, Iran 88,000 MT, and UAE 18,000 MT. Iran imported 429...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Regional Updates Due to the Ramadan Eid El Fitr holidays ending, there is no grain news or information from the MENA region this week. SOUTHERN/EASTERN/WESTERN AFRICA Ghana’s government faces serious criticism f...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Muslim countries will celebrate the Eid-al-Fitr period as Ramadan ends this week. Most countries will see the holy month of Ramadan end on 9 April or 10 with the Eid holidays for several days after. Businesses, ba...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt’s Ministry of Supply expects to receive 3.5 MMT of local wheat during the 2024 harvest that begins in April. In 2023, about 4 MMT was received by the government. Egypt has increased the purchase price...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt’s Prime minister says that the prices of essential goods will drop by 15 to 20 percent in coming days. He added that $4.5 billion of goods delayed in ports due to unavailable foreign exchange will now...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Grain information and activity in the MEA region was reduced greatly this past week as it was the first week of Ramadan with reduced working hours for businesses, banks and government offices. Pakistan...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt and the IMF have signed an agreement for $8 billion in financing, increased from the expected $3 billion due to “significant macroeconomic challenges”. Egypt has devalued its currency versu...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION The Muslim holy month of Ramadan will begin in the region on 11 or 12 March and will end on 9 or 10 April. Business, government, and banking working hours will be reduced during the Ramadan period. Egypt will be c...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt is expected to increase its local wheat purchase price this year due to inflationary pressures. The government advised that the 2024 price will be announced shortly following a ministerial meeting. Egyptian...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Pakistan’s Economic Coordination Committee approved the importation of wheat supplies for 2024 even with a forecasted record wheat harvest. It seems that there are concerns that due to very dry weather the f...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION North Africa is said to be the largest wheat importing region in the world according to a recent report and the GRO Drought Index. Wheat import by the region in 2023/24 will be the highest in seven years with whea...
WASDE Wheat
USDA’s February estimate is for a slight increase in U.S. wheat ending stocks by 10 million bushels to 658 million for 2023/24. That is because food use is reduced 10 million bushels to 960 million, on lower wheat flour grinding - as indicated in the NASS Flour Milling Products report rel...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Turkey and Russia are reportedly discussing “a new mechanism” that could export Ukraine grain from the Black Sea. This could mean a new agreement to replace the Black Sea Grain Initiative that Russia l...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt has decided not to set up a wheat hedging program for 2024/25 due to the recent weakness in wheat prices. Egypt has long talked about beginning wheat hedging but never seems able to make the final decision...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt’s wheat imports for 2023/24 are expected to decrease and wheat stocks could drop to the lowest level seen in 20 years. Severe weakness in the Egyptian pound and a lack of foreign exchange are seen as t...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt reports that Suez Canal fees have dropped by 40 percent so far in 2024 as a result of the Red Sea difficulties near Yemen which is causing the rerouting of vessels. Actual vessel passages are down by 30 perc...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Qatar has contributed $20 million to the “Grain from Ukraine” program. Egypt’s Prime Minister says that inflation will be down to 10 percent by 2025 due to the government’s economic r...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION BRICS membership increased on 1 January 2024 to include Egypt, Iran, Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Ethiopia in addition to existing members: Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa. Further expansion is expected i...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Food price inflation rates, according to the World Bank, show Lebanon at 239 percent, Turkey at 76 percent, Egypt at 74 percent, Ghana at 49 percent, and Iran at 39 percent. Egypt’s consumption of food stapl...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt’s rate of inflation dropped a little in November to 34.6 percent with food price inflation seen at 64.5 percent. However, inflation in expected to move higher in the coming weeks because of the Israel/...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Red Sea and Arabian Sea shipments in transit are being attacked by forces said to be from Yemen or Somalia. Attackers say that they are only attacking vessels with some relationship with Israel. Both Zim lines and...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt’s Wadi Poultry, a division of Wadi Group, has seen the purchase of shares in the company by Mitsui & Company of Japan. No financial details of the share ownership have been released. Wadi Group say...
African Farming; European Farming
African Farming This is said to be the African Century. Over half the world’s population growth to 2050 will come from that region of the world. Yet its agriculture is woefully unable to feed the current population, let alone where it is headed. The average yield for maize this year in Af...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Pakistan’s wheat imports for 2023/24 will be lower according to a recent FAO report. 2023/24 wheat imports are seen as 1.8 MMT, which is below import levels of the last two years, although the five -year ave...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Jordan has begun shipments of grain to the West Bank as part of its 45,000 MT donation of wheat and grain. Bangladesh grain imports for 2023/24 are seen by the FAO as 6.1 MMT of wheat and 2.1 MMT of maize. Local p...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Israel said that any ships damaged by the current conflict will be fully compensated by the government. There has been no reported damage of any vessel from missiles/rockets. Shipping lines have been advised to ho...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Pakistan’s Economic Coordination Committee approved the importation of 1 MMT of wheat during 2023/24 – this in order to keep wheat reserve stock levels. Importation will be by the Trading Corporation o...
War’s Impact on Food
Israel is not the agricultural export powerhouse like Ukraine, but it is a supplier of high quality and high value fruits and vegetables. The country is 95 percent self-sufficient in food despite occupying semi-arid desert land. Much of this was achieved through intense effort at land improveme...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Iran has proposed to Russia that grain shipments can be made from Russia to third countries using “safe, alternative” Iran routes. Iranian officials say that this Russia/Iran route is yet to be used bu...
Sub-Saharan Africa’s Future
Analysts at Rabobank looked at future food needs in Sub-Saharan Africa and concluded that wheat imports will increase and so will the need for milling capacity. Although its wheat production has been expanding, the region already imports almost 73 percent of its wheat consumption. Its wheat yie...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Algeria’s wheat crop, according to the recent FAO report, will be down by 500,000 MT to 2.5 MMT due to drought which will see wheat imports increase to 9 MMT. Barley production will be the same as 2022 at 1...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Pakistan reports outbreaks of Fall Armyworms on maize crops in some areas of the country. The government says that the crops are now too mature for normal pesticide sprays. Pakistan could face a shortage of up to...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt is reportedly discussing the financing of purchases of Kazakh wheat with an unnamed Abu Dhabi based bank. Egypt’s GASC is said to be negotiating this due to the Russian set floor price for wheat, which...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt grain importers, according to the USDA, have booked 71,000 MT of U.S. corn. This will be the first sale of U.S. corn to Egypt in quite a few months. Egypt and Israel are the destinations for the first Ukrain...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Israel reportedly signed a wheat supply agreement with Azerbaijan and Uzbekistan that will guarantee continued supply for Israel. It is reported to be a “long-term” arrangement. Israel will provide bot...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt and India are discussing a possible arrangement for the trade of Egyptian fertilizer for Indian wheat – an arrangement that could benefit both countries. Egypt is the world’s fifth largest export...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Pakistan’s wheat harvest of 27.5 MMT this year is still about 2.6 MMT short of the country’s consumption. Some imports have been made but there is still concern that there will be wheat/wheat flour sho...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt’s GASC said it is ready to act as a re-export center for Russian grain if Russia establishes a logistics center in the Suez Canal region. A grain hub in the region would act as a distribution center fo...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Morocco’s National Federation of Millers has advised that current wheat stocks will cover up to five months of cosumption and added that the current duty-free wheat imports through September will increase th...
WASDE Wheat
USDA reduced their estimate for U.S. wheat production to 1,734 million bushels, down 5 million from last month as lower Other Spring and White wheat production is partially offset by increases for Hard Red Winter (HRW), Soft Red Winter, and Durum. The all-wheat yield is 45.8 bushels per acre, d...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Turkey reports it will allow the export of both corn and durum wheat this year due to the bumper crop for both grains. Exports licenses have already been issued for durum wheat with corn licenses pending. Accordin...
Farm Fuel Cost Outlook
Over the past four weeks diesel prices have started to rally moving toward harvest season. The question remains whether this is temporary or a longer-term trend. From a regional perspective, Midwest distillate inventories for the week of 14 July were the highest recorded for the region s...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Morocco’s Forafric Global has bought 90 percent of Societe Industrielle de Minoterie Du Sud which is a Moroccan soft wheat miller. This acquisition will add 300 MT per day of milling capacity to Forafric. Mo...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt is facing continued daily power cuts as the very high temperatures have increased electricity demand. Egypt does have sufficient electricity production but the reduction in fuel to the plants has caused gene...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Iraq is planning on building a rail link with Turkey. The proposed rail line would begin at FAW port in the south of Iraq, on the Persian Gulf, then run directly north to the eastern Turkish border. The line is expected to cost $1...
WASDE Wheat
Wheat: USDA increased their July estimate for 2023/24 U.S. ending stocks to 592 million bushels, 30 million higher than last month. Winter wheat production is forecast to be higher on larger harvested area and increased yields. The projected season-average farm price is forecast at $7.50 per bu...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Saudi Arabia’s Agricultural Development Fund reportedly made major financing arrangements in the feed industry, animal production, and dairy sectors. Total financing is said to be $246 million. The fund auth...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Israel has the highest cost of living in the Middle East region, followed by Dubai, Saudi Arabia, and Abu Dhabi. Morocco has the highest cost of living in North Africa followed by Algeria, Tunisia, Libya, and Egyp...
Weathering Drought
Moroccan grain production is highly volatile due to frequent droughts, a situation that may become more common elsewhere due to climate change. USDA/FAS reports that this will be a rebound year for Morocco as moisture conditions have improved. The government in Rabat is rolling out new assistan...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Eid-Al-Adha will be celebrated in Muslim countries from 27 June until 1 July. Businesses, banks, and the government will be closed for this period. Morocco will offer subsidies on up to 2.5 MMT of imported milling...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Afghanistan will receive another 20,000 MT of wheat from India in a new donation to help overcome the humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan. India previously donated 40,000 MT of wheat. Wheat will be delivered throug...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Tunisian President Kais Saied said that efforts must be made to insure the adequate supply of grain and feed to all areas of the country. He added that all imports of grain and fodder must be controlled by the gov...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Morocco’s current zero wheat import tax is expected to be extended until September rather than expiring on 31 May. Morocco’s drought driven wheat imports are up by almost 70 percent over 2021/22. The w...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Tunisia’s President said that recent wheat shortages have been overcome but millers and bakers say they have not as yet seen wheat or flour supply improving. Imports of much needed wheat have also been...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Afghanistan is facing a severe infestation of Moroccan locusts in the expected biggest outbreak in 20 years. Up to 25 percent of the current wheat crop, as much as 1.2 MMT, is said to be at risk. The locusts are e...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Morocco’s Ministry of Agriculture said that 2023 cereals production should increase by 62 percent compared to the low drought affected crop of 2022. Total production is seen at 5.5 MMT up from 3.4 MMT. Soft...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Pakistan flour millers in Sindh Province are “alleging” that the government is not releasing wheat even after full payment has been made by millers. 500,000 bags of wheat were supposed to have been rel...
Overstating War Impacts
The Russians and the G-7 traded charges blaming each other for causing global food insecurity. EU Agriculture Commissioner Janusz Wojciechowski finally framed the situation correctly by saying the war has caused market distortions. Global trade in wheat and soybeans has continued to expand. Cor...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION The Arab world is celebrating the end of Ramadan holiday. Businesses, banks, and government offices will be closed. Egypt’s holidays are longer due to Sinai Liberation Day holiday. Egypt says it will spend $...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Tunisia’s grain harvest in 2023 is forecast to drop from 750,000 MT to only 250,000 MT because of drought and the restrictions put on water use. Only about 15 percent of the grain area is irrigated so rainfa...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Abu Dhabi’s Al-Ain Mills has signed an agreement with the government of Sharjah to mill the countries local wheat production. The flour that will be produced is said to be of the “highest standard&rdqu...
OPEC Cuts Quotas to Match Actual Production and Establish Price Floor
On Sunday, OPEC + announced voluntary cuts in oil production that will amount to 1.657 million barrels per day (bpd). Saudi Arabia, Russia, Algeria, Gabon, Iraq, Kuwait, the UAE, Oman, and Kazakhstan are all planning on production cutbacks starting in May and are planned for the remainder of 20...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Grain markets have been upset by concerns that Russia could stop its export of wheat and sunflower seed on a temporary basis due to the recent drop in world prices. Discussions are expected in Russia this week bet...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION The Black Sea Grain Initiative has reportedly been extended but there seems to be no agreement on the time period – 60 or 120 days. Even the UN announcement of the extension did not mention the time period...
FOB Prices and Freight Rates App (Updated 13 November)
Ocean Freight Comments - 8 November 2024By Matt HerringtonDry-Bulk Freight Dry-bulk freight markets were weaker once again and continue the trend that has been present for the past 15 weeks. Rates for Panamax grain from the U.S. to Asia hit new yearly lows this past week and have fallen ab...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional UpdatesMEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGIONPakistan has decided to allow the importation of GMO soybeans from the U.S. – critics say that this decision was made without proper risk assessment and was only done due to pressure from large industrial companies. Forty...
WASDE Wheat - Nov 2024
WASDE Wheat – USDA’s latest November estimate for the 2024/25 season is for an increase in U.S. wheat ending stocks by 3 million bushels to 815 million, up 17 percent from last year. U.S. wheat exports are unchanged at 825 million bushels. The season-average farm price is lowered $0.10 per bush...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional UpdatesMEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGIONTunisia will shortly receive a shipment of 33,000 MT of U.S. corn, the first shipment in quite a while. The U.S. Grains Council office in Tunis says that they expect more U.S. corn imports in the coming weeks.Morocco has...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional UpdatesMEDITERRANEAN, MIDDLE EAST, NORTH AFRICA, and AFRICA – MEA REGIONTurkey’s wheat production is seen dropping by 5.5 percent to 20.8 MMT according to Turksat estimates. It also sees barley production down by 11 percent to 8.2 MMT and corn down by 8 percent to 8.3 MMT. Soybean prod...
The Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN, MIDDLE EAST, NORTH AFRICA, AFRICA – MEA REGIONAfrica spends $75 billion every year importing cereals according to the African Development Bank – 50 MMT being wheat – 27 MMT imported by North Africa, 12 MMT by East Africa and 9 MMT by West Africa. Wheat...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Algeria decided to bar French companies from its wheat import tenders due to France’s support for Morocco’s continued sovereignty over the Western Sahara region. All tender participants have been advis...
Cocoa Market Update: Prices Rise as Stocks Fall
At the end of July 2024, WPI published an article looking at the drivers of the cocoa market’s massive rally in 2023 and 2024 and that offered an outlook for MY 2024/25. This article offers a brief update on market conditions and developments that have occurred in the two months since our...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt has a program that it says will reduce wheat imports and cut subsidies on bread. The plan is to blend wheat flour with local corn and sorghum flour. Savings, it is said, could be in the hundreds of millions...
Kenya’s Crop Choices
In yesterday’s WPI Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional analysis report, it was noted that Kenyan farmers are switching from growing maize to growing sweet potatoes. The latter being easier to grow than drought sensitive maize and netting three crops per year. But whether maize...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Pakistan’s wheat imports in 2024/25 could drop to almost nothing as a result of the very good harvest in 2024 – up by 3.2 MMT. Wheat production was well above the average at a record level of 31,400 MM...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Bangladesh reports that it will be importing 400,000 MT of wheat immediately with the normal buying approval being shortened from 42 days to 15 days. The change is being made in order to maintain food security. Th...
More Food, and Fewer Children
Few philanthropists are as focused on hunger in Sub-Saharan Africa than Bill Gates. The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation has spent billions of dollars on the problem. Activists do not like his promotion of GMO’s as a solution, but they are not as focused as he is on human suffering...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt’s GASC is reported to have arranged a private purchase of 430,000 MT of Russian wheat at a price of $231 CIF. GASC has not confirmed this purchase. Egypt’s wheat imports, on a dollar basis,...
WASDE Wheat
WASDE WHEAT: USDA increased their estimate for 2024/25 global wheat supplies by 1.5 million tons to 1,062.1 million as higher beginning stocks were more than offset by lower production. World wheat trade is raised 1.7 million tons to 216.5 million as higher exports for Australia, Canada,...
Agricultural Trade with Africa
Africa’s population is on a trajectory that could double its size by 2050 to 2.5 billion, or a quarter of the global populace. The West (U.S., EU, Japan) are in a competition with the Axis (China, Russia) for influence over Africa. One way to influence is to actively trade, including in a...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt’s trade deficit in June dropped by 5.1 percent to $2.87 billion – in dollar terms wheat imports were down by 21.5 percent while corn imports saw a reduction of 28.6 percent. Total for all imports...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Saudi Arabia’s Arabian Mills has set the share issue price range under their upcoming IPO. The IPO is expected to raise about $271 million. The total offering will be for 15.4 million shares, which represent...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Regional Updates Iranian wheat farmers are complaining that the government has not yet paid them for wheat delivered earlier in 2024 and that this is impacting planting for the next wheat crop. Iran’s government bought 11.6...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt’s recent massive wheat tender did not generate the 3.8 MMT of buying that GASC had planned. Reports say that the long delivery period – to April 2025 – coupled with the requirement for 270...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Iraq’s wheat production is estimated by the Iraq Wheat Board to be up by 21 percent to 6.3 MMT resulting in the second consecutive year of wheat self-sufficiency for the government. The Board adds that Iraq...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 9 August)
*** Developer Note ***This app is deprecated as of 13 August 2024 and will no longer be updated. Ocean Freight Comments - 9 August 2024By Matt HerringtonDry-bulk markets continue to chop sideways with gains one week yielding losses the next before gains emerge again. This past week was one...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt’s Ministry of Supply has increased its selling price of wheat, both local and imported, by about 20 percent. At the same time, the price of government wheat flour has increased by 35 percent. These pri...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Turkey’s year end wheat stocks are expected to drop by 61 percent due to the wheat import ban. The ban is set to expand in October but wheat imports for the year are seen dropping by 3 MMT – a drop of...
Cocoa: Will the Challenges of 2023 Continue into 2024?
Recently, WPI has received requests from a few clients to provide some analysis on the cocoa market. Clearly, there is a reason for this request as cocoa prices have been exceptionally volatile and futures more than doubled over the nine months from August 2023 through April 2024. I...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Iraq’s government announced record local wheat purchases of 6.3 MMT. Iraq is now self-sufficient in wheat. The government says that this will help it to ensure long-term food security and economic stability...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Pakistan has banned the import of wheat and the export of wheat flour in order to “regulate the wheat market”. The ban on wheat flour exports only covers flour made from imported wheat. Pakistan’...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt is the largest importer of Russian wheat with imports of 8.6 MMT in MY 2023/24 that ended June 30. Egypt’s government purchases of local wheat have reached 3.55 MMT causing the target purchase to...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt reports receiving 3.55 MMT of local wheat from farmers in this year’s harvest. The government’s local wheat buying target of 3.5 MMT has been exceeded. Egypt’s wheat reserves now stand at 6...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Iran’s wheat production is forecast by the FAO to be at 13.5 MMT out of total grain production of 19.8 MMT, including rice. Iran’s total grain imports are seen as reaching 14.9 MMT. Iran’s govern...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Turkey’s announcement that it would stop wheat imports from June to October in order to protect local wheat production has surprised and upset the wheat trade in Turkey and internationally. Turkey’s la...
U.S. Pork Kept Out of Africa
At a recent hearing of the Senate Finance Committee, the National Pork Producers Council (NPPC) highlighted Africa’s call for the renewal of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGAO) while at the same time calling for the removal of South Africa and Nigeria from the agreement because...
El Niño Sparks Corn Demand
Corn production in Sub-Saharan Africa has been volatile for decades but when technology and investment should have been making it less so, it has instead gotten worse. This year’s El Niño has helped make a bad situation worse. USAID’s Famine Early Warning System Networ...
Egypt Needs Wheat
Egypt’s General Authority for Supply Commodities (GASC) purchased 470 KMT of wheat today. It will come from four countries: Romania, France, Ukraine, and Bulgaria. Russia is notably absent. Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi was re-elected with 90 percent of the vote and is now formi...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt’s government has decided to increase the price of subsidized “baladi” bread for the first time in 30 years. The price will increase by 400 percent from $0.001 per piece to $0.004 per piece...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt is reportedly looking at the possibility of importing wheat from Zimbabwe, Mexico, and Sweden as part of its plans to increase the number of sources for its yearly wheat requirements. According to news repor...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Iraq’s Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) hopes to reach an agreement with the government that would guarantee the purchase of 650,000 MT of KRG wheat production. In 2023, Iraq bought 500,000 MT of KRG wheat...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Saudi Arabia’s Modern Mills Company is now trading its shares on the Saudi Exchange. Thirty percent of its shares were offered to public, retail, and institutional investors and the IPO was vastly oversubscr...
WASDE Wheat
USDA’s outlook for 2024/25 U.S. wheat is for larger supplies, increased exports, and higher ending stocks. Supplies are projected to increase six percent from 2023/24. U.S. wheat yield is projected at 48.9 bushels per acre, up 0.3 bushels. 2024/25 ending stocks are eleven percent above la...
Meeting with the Cotton Hopeful
Although many small developing countries produce cotton, about five countries produce most of the fiber. China and India alone account for nearly half the global output of cotton. Four small African countries (Benin, Burkina Faso, Chad, and Mali) formed the Cotton-4 or C-4 consortium many years...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt has received 1,000,000 MT of local wheat since the harvest began on 13 April. The government’s target is to receive 3.5 MMT from the 2024 harvest. Egypt may become a market for South African maize expo...
Egyptian Food Inflation
Bread is a critical basic food in Egypt and Russia has been a prime supplier. But Russian wheat prices have been rising, and now two shiploads of the commodity are delayed departing for Egypt. President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi has a tight grip over the military and the government, but war on the b...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt reports it has received 900,000 MT of local wheat since the harvest began on 13 April. The government’s target is to receive 3.5 MMT from the 2024 harvest. Egypt’s Suez Canal Economic Zone has re...
Squeeze on White Corn
South Africa’s Crop Estimates Committee warns that instead of a previously expected 13.8 percent increase in maize production in 2024/25, output could fall to a five year low on account of El Nino. The shortfall is particularly acute for white corn, with the price rising 30 percent thus f...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Iran, Bangladesh, and the UAE were major destinations for Indian soymeal exports in March 2024, representing 78 percent of exports – Bangladesh 33,000 MT, Iran 88,000 MT, and UAE 18,000 MT. Iran imported 429...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Regional Updates Due to the Ramadan Eid El Fitr holidays ending, there is no grain news or information from the MENA region this week. SOUTHERN/EASTERN/WESTERN AFRICA Ghana’s government faces serious criticism f...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Muslim countries will celebrate the Eid-al-Fitr period as Ramadan ends this week. Most countries will see the holy month of Ramadan end on 9 April or 10 with the Eid holidays for several days after. Businesses, ba...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt’s Ministry of Supply expects to receive 3.5 MMT of local wheat during the 2024 harvest that begins in April. In 2023, about 4 MMT was received by the government. Egypt has increased the purchase price...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt’s Prime minister says that the prices of essential goods will drop by 15 to 20 percent in coming days. He added that $4.5 billion of goods delayed in ports due to unavailable foreign exchange will now...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Grain information and activity in the MEA region was reduced greatly this past week as it was the first week of Ramadan with reduced working hours for businesses, banks and government offices. Pakistan...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt and the IMF have signed an agreement for $8 billion in financing, increased from the expected $3 billion due to “significant macroeconomic challenges”. Egypt has devalued its currency versu...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION The Muslim holy month of Ramadan will begin in the region on 11 or 12 March and will end on 9 or 10 April. Business, government, and banking working hours will be reduced during the Ramadan period. Egypt will be c...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt is expected to increase its local wheat purchase price this year due to inflationary pressures. The government advised that the 2024 price will be announced shortly following a ministerial meeting. Egyptian...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Pakistan’s Economic Coordination Committee approved the importation of wheat supplies for 2024 even with a forecasted record wheat harvest. It seems that there are concerns that due to very dry weather the f...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION North Africa is said to be the largest wheat importing region in the world according to a recent report and the GRO Drought Index. Wheat import by the region in 2023/24 will be the highest in seven years with whea...
WASDE Wheat
USDA’s February estimate is for a slight increase in U.S. wheat ending stocks by 10 million bushels to 658 million for 2023/24. That is because food use is reduced 10 million bushels to 960 million, on lower wheat flour grinding - as indicated in the NASS Flour Milling Products report rel...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Turkey and Russia are reportedly discussing “a new mechanism” that could export Ukraine grain from the Black Sea. This could mean a new agreement to replace the Black Sea Grain Initiative that Russia l...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt has decided not to set up a wheat hedging program for 2024/25 due to the recent weakness in wheat prices. Egypt has long talked about beginning wheat hedging but never seems able to make the final decision...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt’s wheat imports for 2023/24 are expected to decrease and wheat stocks could drop to the lowest level seen in 20 years. Severe weakness in the Egyptian pound and a lack of foreign exchange are seen as t...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt reports that Suez Canal fees have dropped by 40 percent so far in 2024 as a result of the Red Sea difficulties near Yemen which is causing the rerouting of vessels. Actual vessel passages are down by 30 perc...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Qatar has contributed $20 million to the “Grain from Ukraine” program. Egypt’s Prime Minister says that inflation will be down to 10 percent by 2025 due to the government’s economic r...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION BRICS membership increased on 1 January 2024 to include Egypt, Iran, Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Ethiopia in addition to existing members: Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa. Further expansion is expected i...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Food price inflation rates, according to the World Bank, show Lebanon at 239 percent, Turkey at 76 percent, Egypt at 74 percent, Ghana at 49 percent, and Iran at 39 percent. Egypt’s consumption of food stapl...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt’s rate of inflation dropped a little in November to 34.6 percent with food price inflation seen at 64.5 percent. However, inflation in expected to move higher in the coming weeks because of the Israel/...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Red Sea and Arabian Sea shipments in transit are being attacked by forces said to be from Yemen or Somalia. Attackers say that they are only attacking vessels with some relationship with Israel. Both Zim lines and...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt’s Wadi Poultry, a division of Wadi Group, has seen the purchase of shares in the company by Mitsui & Company of Japan. No financial details of the share ownership have been released. Wadi Group say...
African Farming; European Farming
African Farming This is said to be the African Century. Over half the world’s population growth to 2050 will come from that region of the world. Yet its agriculture is woefully unable to feed the current population, let alone where it is headed. The average yield for maize this year in Af...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Pakistan’s wheat imports for 2023/24 will be lower according to a recent FAO report. 2023/24 wheat imports are seen as 1.8 MMT, which is below import levels of the last two years, although the five -year ave...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Jordan has begun shipments of grain to the West Bank as part of its 45,000 MT donation of wheat and grain. Bangladesh grain imports for 2023/24 are seen by the FAO as 6.1 MMT of wheat and 2.1 MMT of maize. Local p...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Israel said that any ships damaged by the current conflict will be fully compensated by the government. There has been no reported damage of any vessel from missiles/rockets. Shipping lines have been advised to ho...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Pakistan’s Economic Coordination Committee approved the importation of 1 MMT of wheat during 2023/24 – this in order to keep wheat reserve stock levels. Importation will be by the Trading Corporation o...
War’s Impact on Food
Israel is not the agricultural export powerhouse like Ukraine, but it is a supplier of high quality and high value fruits and vegetables. The country is 95 percent self-sufficient in food despite occupying semi-arid desert land. Much of this was achieved through intense effort at land improveme...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Iran has proposed to Russia that grain shipments can be made from Russia to third countries using “safe, alternative” Iran routes. Iranian officials say that this Russia/Iran route is yet to be used bu...
Sub-Saharan Africa’s Future
Analysts at Rabobank looked at future food needs in Sub-Saharan Africa and concluded that wheat imports will increase and so will the need for milling capacity. Although its wheat production has been expanding, the region already imports almost 73 percent of its wheat consumption. Its wheat yie...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Algeria’s wheat crop, according to the recent FAO report, will be down by 500,000 MT to 2.5 MMT due to drought which will see wheat imports increase to 9 MMT. Barley production will be the same as 2022 at 1...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Pakistan reports outbreaks of Fall Armyworms on maize crops in some areas of the country. The government says that the crops are now too mature for normal pesticide sprays. Pakistan could face a shortage of up to...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt is reportedly discussing the financing of purchases of Kazakh wheat with an unnamed Abu Dhabi based bank. Egypt’s GASC is said to be negotiating this due to the Russian set floor price for wheat, which...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt grain importers, according to the USDA, have booked 71,000 MT of U.S. corn. This will be the first sale of U.S. corn to Egypt in quite a few months. Egypt and Israel are the destinations for the first Ukrain...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Israel reportedly signed a wheat supply agreement with Azerbaijan and Uzbekistan that will guarantee continued supply for Israel. It is reported to be a “long-term” arrangement. Israel will provide bot...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt and India are discussing a possible arrangement for the trade of Egyptian fertilizer for Indian wheat – an arrangement that could benefit both countries. Egypt is the world’s fifth largest export...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Pakistan’s wheat harvest of 27.5 MMT this year is still about 2.6 MMT short of the country’s consumption. Some imports have been made but there is still concern that there will be wheat/wheat flour sho...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt’s GASC said it is ready to act as a re-export center for Russian grain if Russia establishes a logistics center in the Suez Canal region. A grain hub in the region would act as a distribution center fo...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Morocco’s National Federation of Millers has advised that current wheat stocks will cover up to five months of cosumption and added that the current duty-free wheat imports through September will increase th...
WASDE Wheat
USDA reduced their estimate for U.S. wheat production to 1,734 million bushels, down 5 million from last month as lower Other Spring and White wheat production is partially offset by increases for Hard Red Winter (HRW), Soft Red Winter, and Durum. The all-wheat yield is 45.8 bushels per acre, d...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Turkey reports it will allow the export of both corn and durum wheat this year due to the bumper crop for both grains. Exports licenses have already been issued for durum wheat with corn licenses pending. Accordin...
Farm Fuel Cost Outlook
Over the past four weeks diesel prices have started to rally moving toward harvest season. The question remains whether this is temporary or a longer-term trend. From a regional perspective, Midwest distillate inventories for the week of 14 July were the highest recorded for the region s...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Morocco’s Forafric Global has bought 90 percent of Societe Industrielle de Minoterie Du Sud which is a Moroccan soft wheat miller. This acquisition will add 300 MT per day of milling capacity to Forafric. Mo...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt is facing continued daily power cuts as the very high temperatures have increased electricity demand. Egypt does have sufficient electricity production but the reduction in fuel to the plants has caused gene...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Iraq is planning on building a rail link with Turkey. The proposed rail line would begin at FAW port in the south of Iraq, on the Persian Gulf, then run directly north to the eastern Turkish border. The line is expected to cost $1...
WASDE Wheat
Wheat: USDA increased their July estimate for 2023/24 U.S. ending stocks to 592 million bushels, 30 million higher than last month. Winter wheat production is forecast to be higher on larger harvested area and increased yields. The projected season-average farm price is forecast at $7.50 per bu...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Saudi Arabia’s Agricultural Development Fund reportedly made major financing arrangements in the feed industry, animal production, and dairy sectors. Total financing is said to be $246 million. The fund auth...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Israel has the highest cost of living in the Middle East region, followed by Dubai, Saudi Arabia, and Abu Dhabi. Morocco has the highest cost of living in North Africa followed by Algeria, Tunisia, Libya, and Egyp...
Weathering Drought
Moroccan grain production is highly volatile due to frequent droughts, a situation that may become more common elsewhere due to climate change. USDA/FAS reports that this will be a rebound year for Morocco as moisture conditions have improved. The government in Rabat is rolling out new assistan...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Eid-Al-Adha will be celebrated in Muslim countries from 27 June until 1 July. Businesses, banks, and the government will be closed for this period. Morocco will offer subsidies on up to 2.5 MMT of imported milling...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Afghanistan will receive another 20,000 MT of wheat from India in a new donation to help overcome the humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan. India previously donated 40,000 MT of wheat. Wheat will be delivered throug...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Tunisian President Kais Saied said that efforts must be made to insure the adequate supply of grain and feed to all areas of the country. He added that all imports of grain and fodder must be controlled by the gov...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Morocco’s current zero wheat import tax is expected to be extended until September rather than expiring on 31 May. Morocco’s drought driven wheat imports are up by almost 70 percent over 2021/22. The w...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Tunisia’s President said that recent wheat shortages have been overcome but millers and bakers say they have not as yet seen wheat or flour supply improving. Imports of much needed wheat have also been...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Afghanistan is facing a severe infestation of Moroccan locusts in the expected biggest outbreak in 20 years. Up to 25 percent of the current wheat crop, as much as 1.2 MMT, is said to be at risk. The locusts are e...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Morocco’s Ministry of Agriculture said that 2023 cereals production should increase by 62 percent compared to the low drought affected crop of 2022. Total production is seen at 5.5 MMT up from 3.4 MMT. Soft...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Pakistan flour millers in Sindh Province are “alleging” that the government is not releasing wheat even after full payment has been made by millers. 500,000 bags of wheat were supposed to have been rel...
Overstating War Impacts
The Russians and the G-7 traded charges blaming each other for causing global food insecurity. EU Agriculture Commissioner Janusz Wojciechowski finally framed the situation correctly by saying the war has caused market distortions. Global trade in wheat and soybeans has continued to expand. Cor...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION The Arab world is celebrating the end of Ramadan holiday. Businesses, banks, and government offices will be closed. Egypt’s holidays are longer due to Sinai Liberation Day holiday. Egypt says it will spend $...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Tunisia’s grain harvest in 2023 is forecast to drop from 750,000 MT to only 250,000 MT because of drought and the restrictions put on water use. Only about 15 percent of the grain area is irrigated so rainfa...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Abu Dhabi’s Al-Ain Mills has signed an agreement with the government of Sharjah to mill the countries local wheat production. The flour that will be produced is said to be of the “highest standard&rdqu...
OPEC Cuts Quotas to Match Actual Production and Establish Price Floor
On Sunday, OPEC + announced voluntary cuts in oil production that will amount to 1.657 million barrels per day (bpd). Saudi Arabia, Russia, Algeria, Gabon, Iraq, Kuwait, the UAE, Oman, and Kazakhstan are all planning on production cutbacks starting in May and are planned for the remainder of 20...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Grain markets have been upset by concerns that Russia could stop its export of wheat and sunflower seed on a temporary basis due to the recent drop in world prices. Discussions are expected in Russia this week bet...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION The Black Sea Grain Initiative has reportedly been extended but there seems to be no agreement on the time period – 60 or 120 days. Even the UN announcement of the extension did not mention the time period...